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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and declined to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the British pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3528 and 1.3574. Fixing below the 1.3425 level will increase the probability of further decline toward the support zone of 1.3332–1.3357. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last peak. The news background for the pound has been negative over the past two weeks, but I believe it has already been fully priced in by traders. This week, the background is negative for the dollar instead. To cancel the "bearish" trend, the pair needs to rise another 250 pips, but I think we'll see signs of a shift to a "bullish" trend much earlier. On Thursday, there was no news background, but for the dollar, this is rather positive than negative. Let me remind you that this week the U.S. government and all federal institutions went on leave due to the "shutdown," and the only labor market report, ADP, showed a very weak figure. Thus, the absence of news on Thursday was good for the dollar, which it took advantage of. Most likely, today's cancellation of the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate releases is also good news for the U.S. currency. Few expect strong readings from the U.S. labor market right now. Therefore, today's reports, had they been released on schedule, would most likely have triggered a new attack from the bulls. Such an attack may occur even without the reports, but at least this way the dollar has some chance. Friday began with bull activity, but the only important events today are the ISM Services PMI and the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. I don't think the dollar is saved, but with payrolls and unemployment data, the situation might have been even worse. On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 1.3339 level and turned in favor of the British pound. A close above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 – increases the probability of continued growth toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. Today, no emerging divergences are observed in any indicator. A new decline in the pound can be expected only after a close below 1.3339. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now roughly 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the balance in their favor. In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but with each new month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. Previously, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, without fully understanding the consequences. Now, they may be concerned about the results of those policies: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontation with the Fed, which could result in the regulator becoming "politically controlled" by the White House. Thus, the pound now looks much less dangerous than the U.S. currency. News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.: U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls change (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Average hourly earnings change (12:30 UTC).U.K. – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (13:20 UTC).U.S. – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).On October 3, the economic calendar contains five important entries, three of which will most likely not be available to traders. Nevertheless, the influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be strong in any case. GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice: Sales of the pair were possible after a rebound from the 1.3528 level with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3425 on the hourly chart. Both targets have been reached. New sales – on rebounds from 1.3428, 1.3528, or after a close below 1.3425. Purchases could have been considered after a rebound from 1.3425 with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3528. These trades can still be held open, with stop-loss moved to breakeven. Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, from the level of 1.3436 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin upward movement toward the target of 1.3501 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective downward move toward 1.3482 – the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line) – is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative Scenario: From the level of 1.3436 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin upward movement toward the target of 1.3482 – the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective downward move toward 1.3473 – the 21-period EMA (thin black line) – is possible. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin's growth continues and is accompanied by active inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs. According to the latest report, recent inflows into BTC ETFs are now significantly stronger than inflows into ETH ETFs, which points to a renewed demand for the world's first cryptocurrency. The daily inflow into these two ETFs amounted to $80.79. The renewed interest in Bitcoin is not accidental. Institutional investors are returning to a tried-and-true value—the "digital gold" that Bitcoin is known as. The recent large correction in Bitcoin down to around $108,000, followed by a new wave of growth, once again demonstrates that investors remain committed to the first cryptocurrency, rather than to ETH, which continues to face an ever-changing landscape and unresolved scalability issues. In a recent interview, Arthur Hayes stated that by 2028, the price of BTC could reach $3,200,000. The influencer noted that his model was not a forecast but mathematics. Hayes's statement is undoubtedly bold, but it is backed by his vision of a changing financial landscape and the growing role of cryptocurrencies within it. He believes that traditional financial institutions are losing their appeal, while digital assets such as Bitcoin are becoming more in demand as a means of saving and making payments. Hayes points to several factors that, in his view, will drive the growth in BTC's value. First, there is the ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies due to unprecedented money printing by central banks around the world. Second, there is growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, which is now being recognized by major companies and investment funds as a legitimate asset class. Third, Bitcoin's limited supply makes it a hedge against inflation in times of global economic instability. Of course, Hayes's forecast has its skeptics. Many experts believe that reaching such a high price for BTC is unlikely, given the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the unpredictability of the global economy. But considering the trends seen this year—which is not yet over—it does not hurt to dream at least about the $500,000 mark. Trading recommendations: As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, buyers are now aiming to reclaim the $120,900 level, which opens a direct path to $123,000, and from there, it is a short step to $125,900. The most distant target is the maximum area near $126,400. Breaking above this would mean a further strengthening of the bull market. In the case of a decline in Bitcoin, buyers are expected at the $119,000 level. If the price moves below this zone, BTC could quickly fall to the $117,100 area. The most distant target will be the $115,100 area. For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $4,533 level opens a direct path to $4,616. The most distant target is the maximum around $4,697. Overcoming this would indicate further strengthening of the bull market and growing buyer interest. In the case of a decline in Ethereum, buyers are expected at $4,432. If the price moves below this area, ETH could quickly fall to the $4,331 area. The most distant target will be the $4,235 area. What is on the chart: - Support and resistance levels shown in red, where either a slowdown or active price growth is expected at the moment; - The 50-day moving average is marked in green; - The 100-day moving average is marked in blue; - The 200-day moving average is marked in light green. A crossover or price test of these moving averages generally either stops or triggers a new impulse for the market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crypto markets started October with renewed strength, as Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $119,770.39 0.95% Bitcoin BTC Price $119,770.39 0.95% /24h Volume in 24h $57.98B Price 7d Learn more is up 57% over the past week, supported by $76M in trading volume. 4, a meme coin launched on BSC just two days ago, touched a $190M market cap at its peak and now sits at $141M with over $271M daily volume. (Source: Coingecko) These breakouts demonstrate that despite Bitcoin’s dominance, liquidity is flowing into specific narratives. 14 minutes ago Are Fan Tokens Making a Come Back? ALPINE Crypto Erupts as Chiliz Drops New Merch By Fatima Fan tokens get fresh momentum as Chiliz launches official merch auctions and Alpine’s ALPINE token whipsaws on heavy volume. On Wednesday, Chiliz rolled out limited-edition merchandise bundles inside the Socios.com app, aiming to reward active fans and spark more activity across its sports-token network. The bundles containing a T-shirt, hoodie, socks, hat, stickers, and a linked NFT are up for grabs from Oct. 1 through Oct. 18. Access is restricted to “Reward Points Auctions,” which require users to bid with points earned by staking fan tokens purchased with CHZ. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Read The Full Article Here The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, October 3 – Bitcoin Price Breaks $120K As Altcoin Season Index Rises To 66: Best Crypto To Buy Now? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Having rallied substantially from lows made last week, the GBP/USD broke a four-day winning streak in yesterday's trading, falling by 0.28%. Today, and at the London open, GBP/USD currently trades at ~1.34521, up 0.10%. GBP/USD: Key takeaways 03/10/2025 The most significant catalyst of GBP/USD movement currently, the US government shutdown is weighing heavily on the dollar, as markets readjust confidence in American governanceOtherwise, and following Wednesday’s worse-than-expected UK manufacturing PMIs, signifying five-month lows, the Bank of England is under increasing pressure to consider further rate cuts, although inflation remains somewhat stickyRecent GBP/USD upside is almost exclusively due to dollar weakness, as opposed to pound strength Read more FX coverage from MarketPulse: USD/JPY: A medium-term yen bullish breakout looms, watch 146.30 Dollar Strength Index (DXY) vs. British Strength Index (BXY). TVC, TradingView, 02/10/2025 GBP/USD: US government shutdown adds to cable upside In a return to a word oh-so-familiar in this year’s trading, the latest wave of market uncertainty has come by way of the US government shutdown, announced on Tuesday evening, as the US Senate failed to reach an agreement on government funding. @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 02/10/2025 With the majority of US Democrats voting against a funding bill proposed by the Republican Party, the shutdown is the first in almost seven years, the last having occurred during Trump’s first presidency in 2018. While at first glance, the notion of a governmental shutdown seems purely political, some knock-on effects are already being felt within currency markets, with the release of many key economic indicators expected to be delayed, since reporting agencies are considered ‘non-essential’ during times of government shutdown. This is especially relevant considering that, under normal market conditions, nonfarm payrolls were scheduled to be released this week. Considering the importance of these figures, especially their implications for upcoming monetary policy, the market understandably remains somewhat uneasy, which has introduced some short-term dollar weakness. Should a resolution to the shutdown be found, either by a temporary bill or a Democrat concession in accepting the most recent Republican suggestion, we can expect dollar weakness to reverse course, at least in the short term. GBP/USD: UK manufacturing PMIs fall short of market expectations To touch quickly on recent data, Wednesday’s report revealed that manufacturing conditions in the UK not only continue to worsen but have fallen to five-month lows, at 46.2. At least in part, these conditions are adding pressure to the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts, although this will prove difficult if inflation remains sticky. As such, and considering not only a non-flattering reflection of the UK economy, but also implications for Bank of England monetary policy, we can expect some short-term pound downside as seen in yesterday’s session. GBP/USD: Technical Analysis 03/10/2025GBP/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis GBP/USD, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 03/10/2025 While cable performance in the first half of 2025 was remarkable, mainly owing to a downbeat dollar, since June, the tune has somewhat changed. Of late, we’ve entered into a period of consolidation, best visible on the daily timeframe, with price moving sideways and yet to challenge the highs of 1.37710 made earlier this year. Currently, price trades close to the trendline, with some short-term downside on the table unless the trendline can be broken. Should this happen, here are some key levels to be watching: Price target 1 (T1): 78.6% Fib: $1.33887Price target 2 (T2): 61.8% Fib: $1.33498Price target 3 (T3): 50% Fib: $1.3322 Resistance 1 (R1): $1.35745Resistance 2 (R2): $1.36550 It should be considered, however, that while some downside is possible in the immediate, price remains in a sideways channel, with longer-term direction unclear. Until the fundamental analysis picture becomes clearer, traders are advised to approach with at least some caution. Read about yesterday’s US equities session: S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach ATH despite the US Shutdown – Market wrap for the North American session - October 1 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, from the level of 1.1714 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin upward movement toward the target of 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective downward move toward 1.1749 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dashed line) – is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative Scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1714 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin upward movement toward the target of 1.1749 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective downward move toward 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line) – is possible. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AI rules the day! No matter how grim Donald Trump's threats of mass layoffs, warnings from Scott Bessent about a U.S. economic slowdown, or even the ADP private sector jobs report may seem, the S&P 500 still managed to notch its 30th record high of the year. Leading the northbound herd are the tech giants. Deals between OpenAI and Samsung Electronics, as well as SK Hynix, sparked a swift rebound in the broad equity index after a dip early in the session. Performance of Tech and Other Sectors in the S&P 500 A 45% rally in tech stocks since the April low doesn't look like a bubble — at least according to Bank of America. The bank recommends that its clients continue to buy U.S. stocks through futures contracts. The average daily derivatives volume over the last 20 trading days has hit 40 million — a record since Goldman Sachs began tracking this data in 2010, with 65% of the trades involving net buying positions. The upward trend in the S&P 500 is so strong that even the slightest dips are immediately bought. Whether it's Jerome Powell's comments on inflated stock valuations or Tesla's record sales report, investors are on edge. The concern now is that the removal of government subsidies may have a significant impact on Elon Musk's company, whose shares tumbled 5% in response. That concern, combined with the Congressional Budget Office's forecast that a government shutdown could result in the layoff of 750,000 workers, pulled down the S&P 500 early in the October 2 session. Still, the index quickly recovered thanks to positive developments from OpenAI. Currently, U.S. equity markets face virtually no significant competition. Europe, which started the year strong and initially outpaced the S&P 500, has lost its edge due to the explosive impact of artificial intelligence developments. Even though the EuroStoxx 600 is setting fresh highs — with a 12% gain year-to-date — the S&P 500 is up 14%, pulling further ahead. Capital continues to flow out of the EU to the U.S., though often through currency-hedged strategies. Not surprisingly, the negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks has intensified. EuroStoxx 600 Quarterly Performance Greed continues to dominate sentiment in U.S. equity markets. The fear of missing out — FOMO — is propelling the S&P 500 to new highs. Investors remain relatively unconcerned about the government shutdown, instead paying close attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials' remarks and anticipating the kickoff of the Q3 earnings season. Technically, the S&P 500 continues its upward trend on the daily chart. Bulls managed to hold ground above a cluster of critical pivot levels at 6688 — a strong signal of market strength. In this environment, buying on dips remains a relevant strategy. Price targets for long positions stay at 6800 and 6920. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin’s daily chart is coiling into a technically clean inflection, according to trader IncomeSharks, who posted a rising channel and an on-balance volume (OBV) wedge that together map a straightforward route to higher levels. “DOGE – Not a bad setup. Obvious channel and clear OBV wedge. Ideally OBV will break out before price,” the analyst wrote, sharing the chart that frames the current advance. Dogecoin Breakout Watch: $0.33 Trigger On Deck Price has been respecting a well-defined ascending channel that has governed trade since early summer. Multiple touches on both boundaries validate the structure: higher lows along the lower trendline from July through early October, and lower-high rejections against the upper rail through mid-July, late August, and late September. After a fresh rebound off the rising support area at the start of October, DOGE has pushed back into the channel’s mid-range, where it typically pauses before the next impulse. IncomeSharks’ path sketch envisions a brief consolidation or shallow pullback inside the channel, followed by a drive toward the ceiling. The destination is explicit on the chart. The upper boundary currently intersects in the low-to-mid $0.30s, and the drawing marks a breakout attempt between roughly $0.32 and $0.33. That zone represents confluence: it’s where the rising channel’s resistance comes into play and where late-September supply capped the prior thrust. A decisive daily close through that band would confirm a bullish channel breakout and leave the door open for a run towards the early December 2024 high at $0.4843. Volume dynamics are the tell to watch. The lower panel plots OBV, a cumulative measure of buy/sell pressure, compressed into a symmetrical wedge: a gently rising base since mid-July and a descending lid drawn off the July and September OBV peaks. This kind of narrowing range in OBV often precedes a directional expansion. IncomeSharks’ comment underscores that sequencing: an OBV breakout ahead of price would signal fresh accumulation and improve the odds that price follows with a push to the channel’s top. Conversely, failure of OBV at its wedge support would warn that the rebound lacks sponsorship, increasing the risk of another test of the lower channel line. Structurally, the setup is straightforward. As long as DOGE continues to hold the rising support that has defined the trend since July, the path of least resistance remains up within the channel. A clean OBV break of its wedge would strengthen that view. If bulls can then clear overhead supply and convert the $0.32–$0.33 band into support, the chart would confirm the breakout roadmap IncomeSharks outlined. If instead price loses the ascending base, the channel thesis would be invalidated and the market would likely revisit prior higher-low areas along the lower rail before attempting another trend leg. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.2559.

Bitcoin has finally broken above the $118,000 mark, consolidated at this level, and yesterday set a new monthly high around $121,000. Ethereum also saw a gain of over 4% in just one day. So far, Bitcoin has not posted a single red day for October, reinforcing the historical pattern indicating that traders and investors typically return to the crypto market following a weak September. This year appears to be no exception. An interesting piece of news surfaced yesterday: in late September, one of the largest long liquidations in Bitcoin history occurred, totaling $370 million. This event is historically considered bullish. Contrary to the intuitive assumption that such events are catastrophic, mass long liquidations often signal the start of an upward trend. The shakeout of weak hands helps cleanse the market, remove excess leverage, and reduce volatility. Furthermore, these events are often triggered by big players who intentionally crash the market to gather liquidity and accumulate positions at more attractive prices. It's a form of "market cleanup" that clears the path for sustainable growth — exactly what we're witnessing now. For intraday strategies, I will continue to look for significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum as opportunities to buy, expecting the broader medium-term bull market to persist. Below are my short-term trading strategies and conditions for today. Bitcoin Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today at the entry point near $120,300, targeting a rise toward $121,300. I plan to exit long positions around $121,300 and sell immediately on a bounce.Before buying a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive (above-zero) zone.Scenario 2: An alternative buying opportunity would be from the support level at $119,700, if there is no bearish reaction to its breakdown. I'll then target moves back toward $120,300 and $121,300.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today at the entry point near $119,700, aiming for a move down to $118,800. Around $118,800, I'll exit the short trade and buy immediately on the rebound.Before initiating a breakout short, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative (below-zero) zone.Scenario 2: Alternatively, I can also sell from the resistance area near $120,300 if there's no follow-through in the breakout attempt, targeting a risk reversal back to $119,700 and $118,800.Ethereum Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $4,513, and aim for a move up to $4,581. At around $4,581, I plan to exit my long positions and sell immediately on a bounce.Before buying a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in a positive area.Scenario 2: Alternatively, I may buy from $4,480 support if there is no downward follow-through. The target move would be back toward $4,513 and $4,581.Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today at the entry point near $4,480, targeting a drop to $4,422. At $4,422, I plan to exit short positions and buy immediately on the rebound.Before selling a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.Scenario 2: I may also sell from the $4,513 resistance level if the market shows no continuation above it, targeting a reversal move back down to $4,480 and $4,422.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Polkadot] – [Friday, October 03, 2025] Although the RSI is at the Neutral-Bearish level, but with EMA(50) positioned above EMA(200), Polkadot has the potential to strengthen today. Key Levels Level-Level Kunci 1. Resistance. 2 : 4.4882 2. Resistance. 1 : 4.3985 3. Pivot : 4.2414 4. Support. 1 : 4.1517 5. Support. 2 : 3.9946 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Polkadot strengthens and closes above 3.9946, it has the potential to further extend gains up to 4.3985. Momentum Extension Bias: If 4.3985 is breached and closes above, Polkadot could potentially test the 4.4882 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Polkadot suddenly declines and closes below 3.9946. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 4.2638 EMA(200): 4.1606 RSI(14) : 46.97 Economic News Release Agenda: Due to the Government Shutdown in the United States, all important economic data releases are postponed until Friday, October 10, 2025. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Ripple] – [Friday, October 03, 2025] Looking at the Golden Cross crossover of the two EMAs, accompanied by the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish zone and the appearance of a Hidden Divergence, there is a strong indication that this cryptocurrency has the potential to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.2012 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.1300 3. Pivot : 3.0283 4. Support. 1 : 2.9571 5. Support. 2 : 2.8554 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Ripple's price strengthens and breaks above 3.0283, it has the potential to extend its gains up to 3.1300. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.1300 is breached and closes above, Ripple could continue its rally up to 3.2012. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if this cryptocurrency suddenly declines and closes below 2.8554. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 3.0061 EMA(200): 2.9274 RSI(14) : 53.87 + Hidden Divergent. Economic News Release Agenda: Due to the Government Shutdown in the United States, all important economic data releases are postponed until Friday, October 10, 2025. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 146.82 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in the pair rising toward the target level of 147.22. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials—highlighting that the U.S. economy is in good shape and the fight against inflation is not yet over—led to dollar purchases and yen sell-offs. This reaction was neither unexpected nor accidental. It was a logical reflection of the diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the Fed may cautiously continue cutting interest rates, the BoJ is sticking rigidly to a wait-and-see approach, merely hinting at the potential for tightening policy in the future. Today's news of a sharp rise in Japan's unemployment rate to 2.6% triggered further yen selling and strengthened the dollar. The only bright spot came from stronger-than-expected activity in the services sector. However, this positive signal failed to outweigh the negative impact of the rising jobless rate, sparking concerns among investors. An increase in unemployment is a warning signal for Japan's already struggling economy. A higher number of jobless individuals could dampen consumer spending and slow economic growth further, deepening the existing challenges. As for my intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2. Buy ScenariosScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 147.82 (indicated by the green line on the chart) with a target of rising toward 148.32 (indicated by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.32, I'll exit the long position and open a short trade in the opposite direction—anticipating a 30–35 pip correction. It's best to return to long positions on pullbacks and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning its upward movement. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 147.60 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 147.82 and 148.32. Sell ScenariosScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below 147.60 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.14, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open a buy trade in the opposite direction—expecting a 20–25 pip correction from that level. It's best to sell from as high a level as possible. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward move. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.82 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 147.60 and 147.14 can be expected. Chart:Thin green line – the entry price level where the instrument may be boughtThick green line – an approximate price level where Take Profit orders may be placed, or where profits should be manually fixed, as further growth is unlikely above that levelThin red line – the entry price level where the instrument may be soldThick red line – an approximate price level for placing Take Profit orders, or manually securing profits, as further price declines below that level are unlikelyMACD indicator – it's important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant Note for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to avoid trading during important economic data releases to prevent being caught in sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volume sizes. And remember: to succeed in trading, you need to have a clear trading plan—just like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3490 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound, which resulted in a drop of over 40 pips. Strong U.S. data, supported by hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, restored confidence in a more cautious approach by the Fed regarding interest rate cuts. This, in turn, makes the U.S. dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The pound, however, came under pressure. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Bank of England is facing a greater challenge than the Fed. The UK central bank must contain inflation without collapsing an already fragile economy, teetering on the edge of recession. Later this morning, we'll see the release of the UK's Services PMI and the Composite PMI. Additionally, a public speech is scheduled by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. These events will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the pricing trajectory of the British currency and, more broadly, on the assessment of economic risks tied to the United Kingdom. Historically, the services PMI is a key indicator of economic well-being due to the dominant role of the service sector in the UK's GDP structure. A reading above 50 signals growth, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity. The Composite PMI combines data from both the services and manufacturing sectors, offering a more holistic view of the economic climate. Weak PMI figures could signal a slowdown in economic momentum, thereby increasing pressure on the Bank of England to take more aggressive monetary policy action. Nevertheless, the central highlight will be Andrew Bailey's speech. Market participants will closely examine his remarks for any hints about the BoE's future interest rate strategy. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenariosScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3446 (the green line on the chart), with a target of moving toward 1.3475 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3475, I plan to exit long positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from that level. Bullish pound positions are only justified if strong economic data is released. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests the 1.3417 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3446 and 1.3475 can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3417 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target level for sellers will be 1.3395, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately open a buy position on the rebound—expecting a recovery of 20–25 pips from that level. Pound sellers may look to strengthen their advantage at any opportunity. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3446 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.3417 and 1.3395 is expected. Chart:Thin green line – the entry price level where the instrument may be boughtThick green line – an approximate price level where Take Profit orders may be placed, or where profits should be manually fixed, as further growth is unlikely above that levelThin red line – the entry price level where the instrument may be soldThick red line – an approximate price level for placing Take Profit orders, or manually securing profits, as further price declines below that level are unlikelyMACD indicator – it's important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant Note for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to avoid trading during important economic data releases to prevent being caught in sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volume sizes. And remember: to succeed in trading, you need to have a clear trading plan—just like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1746 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area near 1.1712. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve officials—that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that the fight against inflation is far from over—spurred U.S. dollar buying. However, today brings important data releases, including the Eurozone services PMI, composite PMI, and producer price index (PPI), all of which could significantly impact the market. The significance of the upcoming reports cannot be overstated, as they will serve as a litmus test for assessing the current state of the Eurozone economy and help determine the future direction of the EUR/USD currency pair. Weak reports will not only increase pressure on EUR/USD but could also trigger a full-scale euro sell-off. A decline in services PMI below the 50 mark would indicate a contraction in business activity. A negative composite index reading would confirm widespread economic weakness. The producer price index, in turn, will indicate how effectively the European Central Bank is managing inflation. If price growth accelerates, the ECB will face a difficult choice: continue fighting inflation or protect fragile economic growth. Any negative surprises will heighten investor concerns and lead to euro weakness. As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenariosScenario #1: Buying the euro today is possible if the price reaches the area around 1.1730 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1755. At the 1.1755 level, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip retracement. A bullish euro outlook is only reasonable if very strong economic data is released. Important: Before initiating a buy trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to move upward. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1707 level twice, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1755 can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price drops to the 1.1707 level (indicated by the red line on the chart). The target is 1.1690, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open a buy trade, anticipating a return move of 20–25 pips. Selling pressure is likely to intensify with the release of weak economic data. Important: Before initiating a sell trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward. Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if the price tests the 1.1730 level twice, with the MACD indicator in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the 1.1707 and 1.1690 levels can be expected. Chart:Thin green line – the entry price level where the instrument may be boughtThick green line – an approximate price level where Take Profit orders may be placed, or where profits should be manually fixed, as further growth is unlikely above that levelThin red line – the entry price level where the instrument may be soldThick red line – an approximate price level for placing Take Profit orders, or manually securing profits, as further price declines below that level are unlikelyMACD indicator – it's important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant Note for Beginner Forex Traders:Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to avoid trading during important economic data releases to prevent being caught in sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volume sizes. And remember: to succeed in trading, you need to have a clear trading plan—just like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar has regained leadership – especially after it became clear that the much-anticipated key U.S. labor market statistics would not be released this week. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve representatives Logan and Goolsbee, noting that the U.S. economy is in good shape, also increased demand for the dollar. Traders interpreted these comments as a sign of a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, making the U.S. currency more attractive for investment. Ahead, markets await data on the Eurozone Services PMI, Composite PMI, and the Producer Price Index. Weak numbers will only increase pressure on EUR/USD, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the near term. Expectations for the upcoming PMI releases are relatively low, given the weak growth rates in most European economies. If the data comes in worse than forecasts, the euro will inevitably face a wave of selling. Special attention will be paid to the Composite PMI, as it reflects the overall state of the economy and helps assess the scale of potential slowdown. The Producer Price Index is also a key indicator that could influence EUR/USD dynamics. Higher readings, indicating stronger inflationary pressures, could prompt the European Central Bank to adopt a more cautious stance on monetary policy. As for the pound, the UK will also release Services PMI and Composite PMI data. In addition, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. During his remarks, the market will carefully analyze every word in an attempt to understand the central bank's future interest rate plans. Given the difficult economic situation in the UK, any divergence between market expectations and Bailey's rhetoric may lead to sharp currency market fluctuations. If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of forecasts, the Momentum strategy is preferable. Momentum Strategy (Breakout Strategy): For the EURUSD pair: Buying on a breakout above the 1.1741 level could lead to a rise in the euro toward the 1.1777 and 1.1817 areas.Selling on a breakout below the 1.1710 level could lead to a decline in the euro toward the 1.1685 and 1.1650 areas.For the GBPUSD pair: Buying on a breakout above the 1.3450 level could lead to a rise in the pound toward the 1.3506 and 1.3556 areas.Selling on a breakout below the 1.3403 level could lead to a decline in the pound toward the 1.3365 and 1.3326 areas.For the USDJPY pair: Buying on a breakout above the 147.88 level could lead to a rise in the dollar toward the 148.23 and 148.54 areas.Selling on a breakout below the 147.57 level could lead to a sell-off in the dollar toward the 147.28 and 146.96 areas. For the EURUSD pair: I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1732 followed by a return below this level.I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1695 followed by a return above this level. For the GBPUSD pair: I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3455 followed by a return below this level.I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3414 followed by a return above this level. For the AUDUSD pair: I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6611 followed by a return below this level.I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6588 followed by a return above this level. For the USDCAD pair: I will look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3972 followed by a return below this level.I will look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3952 followed by a return above this level.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As the crypto market kicks off October with a remarkable recovery, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to turn the $4,500 level into support after nearly two weeks. Some analysts forecast that a breakout from this crucial area could set the stage for a massive 50% rally in Q4. Ethereum Retests Next Major Resistance Ethereum has bounced 17% from last week’s lows and is retesting the next crucial level to reclaim. The cryptocurrency started this week by recovering from the recent market correction, which sent its price to a multi-week low of $3,815. Since then, the King of Altcoins has reclaimed the mid-zone of its macro range and broken past a major sell wall located around the $4,200-$4,300 levels. Amid this performance, market watcher Ted Pillows highlighted that the next two major resistance levels to reclaim before a new all-time high (ATH) are $4,500 and $4,750. Similarly, Ali Martinez detailed that the $4,505 area is “one of the most important resistance levels to watch for Ethereum,” according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric. A rejection from this major level could lead to a retest of the $4,250 support, and potentially risk a new price drop if ETH breaks below it. Previously, some analysts cautioned that losing this area could open the gates for a fresh breakdown toward the macro range lows. On the contrary, reclaiming the $4,500 resistance would set the base for a challenge of the macro range highs, around the $4,800 level, in the coming weeks. Market watcher Lluciano pointed out that ETH appears to be forming a triangle formation since early August. He suggested that breaking out of this pattern could kick off a rally toward a new high above the $5,000 barrier, affirming, “Q4 is here, ETH new wave is imminent.” Meanwhile, Titan of Crypto highlighted a weekly bull flag pattern forming on ETH’s chart. According to the analyst, a breakout from the formation’s upper boundary, around the $4,500 area, could send the price into a 50% rally toward the $6,900 mark. ETH’s Weekly Close Could ‘Turn It All Around’ After closing September above the $4,100 area, analyst Rekt Capital affirmed that Ethereum is potentially developing a Monthly Bull Flag within this macro range. He explained that the cryptocurrency must reclaim the $4,200 in the higher timeframes to continue building on the formation’s base. Notably, closing the month below this level technically means ETH’s price is positioning for a bearish retest despite the current bounce, the analyst detailed, as it represents the mid-zone of the macro range. Nonetheless, Rekt Capital considers that “even though the Monthly Close wasn’t very appealing, price just needs to Weekly Close above the $4.2k mid-range to turn it all around.” He noted that the cryptocurrency displayed a similar performance in late 2021 and this past July, weekly closing above this level and post-breakout retesting it as support. This technical sequence enabled the price to reclaim the $4,600 area and position itself for new highs. “If ETH can soon Weekly Close above blue and retest it back into support, then there’s a good chance for a revisit to $4.6k being on the cards in the future,” he concluded. As of this writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,502, a 4.1% increase in the daily timeframe.

Macroeconomic Reports: There aren't many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and only one of them is truly important – the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. In addition to this index, we'll also see second estimates of services PMIs for Germany, the UK, and the EU, as well as the Producer Price Index in the EU. However, these reports are of secondary importance. Also, the NonFarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate were supposed to be released today, but most likely that won't happen due to the U.S. government "shutdown" that began on October 1. Therefore, all attention today will be on the ISM Services PMI. Fundamental Events Overview: Several key fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. Most notably, speeches from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Lagarde may comment on the latest inflation report, while Andrew Bailey may provide guidance on the next steps for the Bank of England's monetary policy. Both speeches are potentially important. There will also be several speeches from Fed representatives, who may answer the question of what the central bank's decisions will be based on if no labor market and unemployment reports are available. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for late October, by which time the shutdown may already be over. However, October data could end up being "distorted" due to the shutdown. Thus, extra attention will also be on Fed officials. General Conclusions: On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue moving upward. The British pound has ended its downward trend, which suggests that the euro is also likely to have completed its downtrend (although it hasn't yet broken the trendline). The euro has a trading zone at 1.1745–1.1754, while the pound has entry zones at 1.3466–1.3475 and 1.3413–1.3421. Basic Rules of the Trading System: The strength of a signal depends on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals form near the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In flat markets, any pair can generate numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be opened during the European session and remain open until the mid-U.S. session, after which all positions should be closed manually.On the H1 timeframe, MACD signals should only be traded with sufficient volatility and a confirmed trend (by a trendline or trend channel).If two levels are very close (5–20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.After 15–20 pips of movement in the right direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.What's on the Charts: Support and resistance price levels – targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set around them.Red lines – channels or trendlines that show the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – an auxiliary tool that can also be used as a source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly influence currency pair movements. During their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding trend.Remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are the keys to long-term success in trading.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review for Thursday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly collapsed. This does not mean the dollar strengthened enough to start a new local "dollar trend." However, this week's movements have been very mixed and illogical, with the market ignoring many factors unfavorable for the U.S. currency. As noted, the dollar had formal reasons to fall yesterday. The eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%, which could have triggered the euro's decline. Yet, in the U.S., a government shutdown has just begun, and the labor market once again showed weakness. In our view, these two factors are far more important than the EU unemployment rate. It is also worth noting that dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continue to grow. The market is now nearly 100% certain that the Fed will cut rates twice before the end of the year. However, for now, all these factors are being ignored, which makes the movements appear illogical. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal formed on Thursday—but it was a strong one. For 5 hours, the pair consolidated around the 1.1745–1.1754 resistance zone. When the rebound finally occurred, the price moved about 50 pips in the right direction. Although the pair didn't reach the nearest target zone of 1.1655–1.1666, novice traders could still have closed the trade manually in profit. How to Trade on Friday: On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continues to display a downward trend and has yet to break above the trendline. Fundamentally, the backdrop for the dollar remains weak, so we do not expect sustained strength in the U.S. currency. As before, the dollar can only rely on technical corrections, one of which we are currently seeing. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair will likely trade within the 1.1745–1.1754 zone again. A rebound from this zone is a new reason to open shorts targeting 1.1666. A breakout above this zone would allow for more logical longs targeting 1.1808. On the 5M timeframe, key levels to watch: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Friday, Christine Lagarde will speak in the EU. In the U.S., Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data were initially scheduled but have been removed from event calendars due to the shutdown. Thus, the only report of interest in the U.S. today will be the ISM Services PMI. Basic Rules of the Trading System: The strength of a signal depends on how quickly it forms (rebound or breakout). The less time needed, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals form near a level, ignore subsequent signals from that level.In flat conditions, pairs may produce many false signals or none at all. At the first signs of flat, stop trading.Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; close all positions manually after that.On the 1H chart, trade MACD signals only when volatility is sufficient and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or channel.Levels close together (5–20 pips apart) should be considered a support or resistance zone.After the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts: Support/resistance levels – targets for buy/sell trades, and potential Take Profit levels.Red lines – trendlines or trend channels indicating the current trend and trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line, used as an additional source of signals.Support/resistance levels – targets for buy/sell trades, and potential Take Profit levels.Red lines – trendlines or trend channels indicating the current trend and trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line, used as an additional source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. Therefore, when they are released, it is recommended to trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of prices against the previous movement.Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review for Thursday:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD also showed a downward move, despite the British pound having no real reason to fall. As mentioned earlier, this week's movements in the FX market have been very strange and illogical. Such moves are not rare, and when they do not align with the fundamental or macroeconomic background, the best approach is to acknowledge their illogicality rather than trying to force-fit news or data to explain them. There were no significant events in the UK or the U.S. yesterday, although earlier this week, at least two events could have triggered a major dollar sell-off—but didn't. That's the main "strangeness" of the current moves. The price failed to consolidate below 1.3413 yesterday, so the upward trend remains intact. Today, however, it's unclear what to expect from U.S. reports, which may not even be released. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, there were several signals yesterday. First, the pair rebounded from the 1.3466–1.3475 zone, then broke above it, and later generated a buy signal near the 1.3413–1.3421 area. The last signal came relatively late, but the first two could be traded. In the first case, the 1.3529 target wasn't reached, while in the second, it was. Thus, at least one trade could have been closed with a solid profitHow to Trade on Friday:On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has completed the formation of its downtrend. As noted earlier, there are no reasons for prolonged dollar strength, so in the medium term, we expect only upward movement. Recent events in the UK and the U.S. have temporarily supported the dollar, but the global fundamental background remains negative for it, and the downtrend is already over. On Friday, GBP/USD may continue its upward move. A rebound from 1.3413–1.3421 allows opening longs targeting 1.3466–1.3475 and higher. A consolidation below 1.3413–1.3421 would make shorts toward 1.3329–1.3331 relevant. On the 5M chart, the following levels to trade from are: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, and 1.3763. No key events are scheduled in the UK on Friday. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI will be released, while Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data are unlikely to be released. Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal depends on how quickly it forms (rebound or breakout). The less time needed, the stronger the signal.If two or more false signals form near a level, ignore subsequent signals from that level.In flat conditions, pairs may produce many false signals or none at all. At the first signs of flat, stop trading.Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; close all positions manually after that.On the 1H chart, trade MACD signals only when volatility is sufficient and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or channel.Levels close together (5–20 pips apart) should be considered a support or resistance zone.After the price moves 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.What's on the Charts:Support/resistance levels – targets for buy/sell trades, and potential Take Profit levels.Red lines – trendlines or trend channels indicating the current trend and trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line, used as an additional source of signals.Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. Therefore, when they are released, it is recommended to trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of prices against the previous movement.Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over a long period of time.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The time for optimistic predictions about the Bitcoin price reaching a new record is swiftly running out. Many analysts initially predicted that the market’s leading cryptocurrency would achieve a milestone of $200,000 this year. However, as time progresses, these forecasts are being adjusted, with some traders on crypto prediction platforms lowering their price targets. Despite this, the potential for new all-time highs (ATHs) still lingers for the remainder of the year. Historical Data Points To New Records In Q4 Recently, the Bitcoin price once again surged past the significant $120,000 threshold, a level that has acted as a major resistance barrier over the past months. However, a sustained weekly close above this mark could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach new heights. This price movement follows the release of softer private payrolls data, which has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now estimate a 99% probability of a quarter-point reduction on October 29, a noticeable increase from 86% just a week earlier. As such, analysts from the Motley Fool remain optimistic, suggesting that the Bitcoin price could still achieve a price target of $140,000 by early 2026. Historical data supports this optimism, as Bitcoin has consistently shown strong performance in the fourth quarter (Q4). Over the years from 2013 to 2024, the average Q4 return for Bitcoin has been an impressive 85%. Notably, in 2020, Bitcoin saw an increase of 168% in the final quarter, while in 2017, it skyrocketed by 215%. Even further back to 2013, Bitcoin posted an extraordinary return of 480%. Key Months For The Bitcoin Price Looking at the data, October and November have historically marked significant turning points for the Bitcoin price. November stands out as the most lucrative, with an average return of 46%, followed closely by October at 22%. Current predictions from prediction markets suggest that traders are granting Bitcoin a 63% chance of reclaiming its previous all-time high of $125,000 by the year’s end. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by early 2026 stands at 47%, while the chance of hitting $140,000 has been estimated at 32%. However, the window for achieving higher price levels is quickly closing, as evidenced by a mere 22% chance of reaching $150,000 this year and only a 5% chance of hitting $200,000. Despite the optimism, Motley Fool analysts have noted that market sentiment has soured since August. Prediction markets reflect this shift, indicating a 6% probability of Bitcoin slipping below $70,000. Moreover, there’s a 2% chance that the Bitcoin price could dip below $50,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

EUR/USD On Thursday, for the fourth time since Monday, the pair attempted to rise but were pushed back down. This time, the pressure was stronger, with the lower shadow piercing both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has moved into negative territory. For the target level of 1.1605 to open, the price must consolidate below the MACD line (1.1700). Even if today's daily candle closes under it, such confirmation won't come until later. Despite mounting pressure on the euro, an upward move remains possible, as the price is still technically above the indicator lines. Sideways movement and uncertainty continue. On the H4 chart, the price continues to fluctuate between the daily and H4 MACD lines at 1.1700/58. A breakout above the upper line would open prospects for growth toward 1.1914, while a consolidation below 1.1700 (on H4) would open the path to 1.1605. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Today's labor data from Japan showed a jump in the August unemployment rate from 2.3% to 2.6% (forecast: 2.4%). According to market participants, such figures will slow the Bank of Japan's monetary tightening. Considering that the yen has spent 2.5 months in the 146.29–149.38 range precisely in anticipation of tightening signals, after a signal pointing to easing, the pair may break out of the range upward. On the daily chart, we see that the upper boundary of the range at 149.38 will soon align with the MACD line, so their overlap may provoke another strong price surge, continuing the uptrend. The target is the 151.70–152.10 range. The Marlin oscillator is close to entering positive territory. An initial upward move may be expected today or on Monday. A move below support at 146.29 would open the alternative bearish scenario with a target at 144.33. If this happens, it would likely mean new global concerns have emerged. On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is also close to turning positive. The first resistance lies at the MACD line near 148.07. A breakout above it would pave the way to testing 149.38. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD By the end of Thursday, the price returned below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The daily close occurred 23 pips below the MACD line, marking a conditional consolidation under it and significantly increasing the likelihood of further decline. Support at 1.3364 is formally open. The Marlin oscillator turned downward while remaining in bearish territory. A close above the MACD line on Friday near 1.3475 would indicate conditional consolidation above it, opening the path to 1.3525. For now, the base scenario remains bearish. On the H4 chart, the price attempted conditional consolidation twice above the MACD line, but each time it closed firmly below it. Today's situation differs in that the Marlin oscillator has shifted into negative territory. The price is likely to attempt to break support at the balance line (red moving average) once again. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin edged higher today, breaching the key $119,000 mark, after a string of steady sessions, lifting prices above recent ranges and drawing fresh attention from big investors. According to Coinglass data, BTC rose about 2.50% in the last 24 hours, and is up 8% over the last seven days. Trading activity and inflows are being watched closely as traders size up the next move. Institutional Flows Drive Momentum Data shows the top crypto asset registered a second straight day of strong inflows, putting $430 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs. That kind of demand helps explain why Bitcoin’s market value has jumped from $870 billion to $2.34 trillion this year. Analysts say that steady institutional buying has been a key engine behind the rally, and continued flows could keep momentum alive. Price Levels And Targets In Focus Resistance zones are being tested. Near-term hurdles sit at $118,500 and $119,800, with a close target at $120k if buyers stay in control. Analyst Satoshi Flipper pointed out that BTC appears to have built a base above the $115,000 area and is holding a higher time frame structure, adding that a long-term breakout aim sits near $130,000. Buyers extended the climb past $118k, and that move is being cited as a sign that demand remains present above current levels. On-Chain Signals And Volatility According to Coinglass, trading volume rose 12% to nearly $95 billion for the day, while Open Interest increased 4.46% to $84 billion. The OI weighted funding rate came in at 0.0050%. Liquidations show the market can still move quickly: $157.08 million in positions were wiped in the past day, with shorts accounting for $136 million and longs $20 million. A bullish MACD crossover has been confirmed on some timeframes, and the RSI sits at 58% — levels that suggest more room to climb but not runaway overheated conditions. Seasonal Patterns Add To The Optimism Based on reports and past data, October has a history of strong performance — “Uptober” shows an average gain of 20%. September registered a 5% rise, and the third quarter closed with 6% according to Coinglass. The fourth quarter’s average return has historically been large, at 78%, which is why some market participants are optimistic heading into the final months of the year. Buyers remain active, but the path up may not be smooth. A clear push above $120,000 would be a useful signal that new highs might follow, while a stumble into the liquidity clusters could force a quick pullback. Market participants are balancing on-chain flows, visible technical levels, and known seasonal patterns as they decide their next steps. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The U.S. government is partially shut down, and that’s thrown a wrench into the SEC’s regular activity. One of the biggest consequences right now is the halt on reviewing applications for spot altcoin ETFs. For investors hoping to see new crypto funds approved soon, especially ones linked to Solana and other popular tokens, the wait just got longer. SEC Freezes Review During Budget Impasse The SEC has a contingency plan for situations like this, and it clearly states that only emergency cases will be reviewed during a shutdown. Everything else, including new financial product applications, is off the table for now. That leaves crypto ETF filings stuck in limbo. What to Watch Moving Forward All eyes are now on when the SEC returns to full operation. Once they’re back, the big question will be how quickly they move through the backlog. Will they try to make up for lost time or stick to a slower schedule? It also remains to be seen whether the original October expectations will still hold or be reshuffled. Beyond the timeline, the real test is whether investor and issuer momentum can be rebuilt after the pause. Some may jump back in immediately, while others may tread more carefully. For now, the government shutdown has left crypto ETF approvals in limbo. Everyone is waiting to see when things start moving again. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The U.S. government shutdown has paused SEC reviews, freezing over 90 pending altcoin ETF applications, including Solana ETFs. During the shutdown, the SEC is only handling emergency cases, which leaves all crypto ETF filings stuck in limbo. Solana, XRP, Cardano, Litecoin, and Dogecoin ETFs face likely delays, despite earlier expectations for October approvals. Industry leaders and issuers have voiced frustration but remain hopeful that approvals will resume once the SEC returns to full operations. The shutdown’s ripple effects include missed launch windows, rising costs, and a potential slowdown in crypto ETF market momentum. The post Government Shutdown Causes Crypto ETF Delay at SEC appeared first on 99Bitcoins.