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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.04 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For that reason, I did not initiate a sell trade. However, the bounce buy from 146.66 yielded about 40 pips in profit. A strong sell-off in the U.S. dollar occurred yesterday after the ADP report showed a drop of 32,000 in U.S. employment, signaling a potential need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This sudden employment data miss triggered a chain reaction in currency markets. Investors quickly reevaluated their expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, pricing in more aggressive interest rate cuts. Demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen, surged sharply, strengthening the yen against the dollar. Today, Japan released data showing a rise in the Consumer Confidence Index to 35.3 points, which allowed yen buyers to maintain market control. This unexpected surge in consumer optimism became the spark that supported a new round of yen appreciation. Investors interpreted the news as a green light, actively buying yen and reclaiming previously lost ground. However, it's worth remembering that one positive data point is not a guarantee of long-term growth. The Japanese economy continues to face serious challenges, including trade tariffs, low inflation, and weak domestic demand. For the yen to strengthen sustainably, more fundamental changes in economic policy and structural reforms are needed to create conditions for consistent growth and prosperity. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 147.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.70 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 147.70 level, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip correction from the level). It is better to return to buying the pair on pullbacks and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today, in case of two consecutive tests of the 147.04 level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 147.28 and 147.70 can be expected. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 147.04 level (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 146.66 level, where I plan to exit short positions and also immediately open long trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce from the level). It's best to sell from as high a point as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 147.28 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.04 and 146.66 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3474 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a 40-pip rise. The sharp drop in U.S. employment data from ADP for August triggered a strong sell-off of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of the British pound. Investors, concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery, quickly moved away from dollar-denominated assets, while the pound, conversely, found support amid expectations of a more cautious monetary policy from the Bank of England. However, this outlook seems somewhat simplified. The fundamental factors that determine the long-term prospects of currency pairs remain complex and multifaceted. Inflationary pressures in the UK, despite the central bank's efforts, remain significantly above target, posing serious risks to the British economy. At the same time, the U.S. economy, despite some signs of slowing, remains resilient and has the potential for further growth. Today, there are no economic reports scheduled for release in the UK, meaning the pound may face challenges in continuing its bullish momentum. The absence of macroeconomic data, which could serve as a catalyst for further strengthening, creates some uncertainty and may lead to consolidation or even a correction of previously gained positions. Investors, lacking access to fresh economic indicators, tend to become more conservative and adopt a wait-and-see approach. In such a situation, attention shifts to external factors that could impact the British currency. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3487 (indicated by the green line on the chart), with the goal of rising to the 1.3514 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3514, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip correction from that level. Expecting pound growth today would be in line with a continuation of the bullish trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3468 price level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold area at the time. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3487 and 1.3514 can be expected. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3468 level (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a swift decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be the 1.3439 level, at which point I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point bounce from that level. Pound sellers will act cautiously against the trend. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move downward from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3487 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and may lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3468 and 1.3439 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heightened uncertainty in the market. On the one hand, the reduction in jobs highlights potential difficulties in the U.S. economy and could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish approach in its monetary policy. On the other hand, the business activity index suggests stability in the manufacturing sector and continued economic growth. Today, during the first half of the day, only the eurozone unemployment rate data for August is expected. Although unemployment data is a single data point, it could still impact short-term strategies. A significant deviation from forecasts may trigger local fluctuations in currency pairs, especially the euro. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.1753 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.1800 level. At the 1.1800 mark, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry point. Betting on a rise in the euro is only reasonable following very strong reports. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1728 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. In this case, growth to the opposite levels of 1.1753 and 1.1800 can be expected. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1728 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1686 level, where I plan to exit the market and initiate a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rally from the level). Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today, in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1753 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1728 and 1.1686 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar has once again come under pressure, this time due to another round of weak fundamental data, which triggered a rally in risk assets — including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The sharp drop in U.S. private-sector employment, as reported by ADP (down 32,000), led to an active sell-off of the dollar and strengthened the euro, pound, and yen. However, this disappointing labor market data was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which limited the dollar's downside momentum. These conflicting signals created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. On one hand, job losses highlight potential vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy and could prompt a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, a strong PMI shows resilience in the manufacturing sector and indicates continued economic growth. In the short term, the dollar is unlikely to attract strong institutional demand, but a major sell-off also appears unlikely for now. Today, the only notable data expected in the first half of the day is the eurozone unemployment rate for August, which is unlikely to create major market volatility. However, seasoned traders know that even periods of apparent calm can be misleading. The market often conceals strong undercurrents beneath the surface, much like the deep ocean. A single unexpected data point — especially one that deviates significantly from forecasts — can lead to sharp, yet localized, price swings. Moreover, the broader context remains relevant. Geopolitical tensions, changes in global growth forecasts, and surprising statements from central bank leaders continue to impact market sentiment and shape long-term trends. That's why even during quiet periods, it's essential to maintain a broad perspective and analyze the whole picture to avoid missing key signals. In the UK, there are no economic reports scheduled today at all, which could cause the bullish trend in the British pound to transition into a more sluggish, sideways phase. If the released data matches economists' expectations, it's better to stick to a Mean Reversion strategy. However, if the data significantly beats or misses forecasts, implementing a Momentum strategy is more appropriate. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuy breakout above 1.1745 with potential targets at 1.1777 and 1.1817 Sell breakout below 1.1720 with potential targets at 1.1680 and 1.1650 GBP/USDBuy breakout above 1.3485 with potential targets at 1.3500 and 1.3532 Sell breakout below 1.3465 with potential targets at 1.3435 and 1.3400 USD/JPYBuy breakout above 147.30 with potential targets at 147.61 and 148.00 Sell breakout below 146.96 with potential targets at 146.64 and 146.31 Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDSell on a failed breakout above 1.1747 with a return below the levelBuy on a failed breakout below 1.1722 with a return back above the level GBP/USDSell on a failed breakout above 1.3491 with a return below the levelBuy on a failed breakout below 1.3463 with a return above the level AUD/USDSell on a failed breakout above 0.6629 with a return below the levelBuy on a failed breakout below 0.6604 with a return above the level USD/CADSell on a failed breakout above 1.3952 with a return below the levelBuy on a failed breakout below 1.3929 with a return above the levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to the value being shifted around on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the version of the indicator that’s of interest is the one specifically for short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT for the STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Value RVT has witnessed a decline recently, implying the investors have been realizing a lower amount of profit/loss compared to the volume. The metric’s recent decline has been so drastic that it has taken its value near cyclical lows. Such a trend suggests the BTC network is currently observing most of its coins moving at or near break-even. “Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries,” explains the analytics firm. From the chart, it’s visible that the market saw similar STH Realized Value RVT values during the mid-2024 and early-2025 lows. In 2023, however, the indicator had to sink even lower before Bitcoin regained its footing. It now remains to be seen whether the latest low levels of STH Realized Value RVT mean the cryptocurrency has already bottomed, or if the metric will have to go further lower. Another healthy development for BTC could perhaps be the reversal in its market cap dominance, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin dominance declined to 57% earlier, but it has since seen a rebound back to 59%. “This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins,” notes the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,000, up 3% over the last week.

Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the brink of undergoing a medium-term (multi-week) appreciation against the US dollar. Several macro/fundamental and momentum factors support this potential impending Japanese yen strength revival view, coupled with the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s ongoing path of monetary policy normalization (increasing interest rates gradually). Let’s review them in greater detail. Further improvement in the Tankan survey with narrowing of US-Japan implied policy rate curve spread Fig. 1: Japan core-core CPI, Average Cash Earnings, Tankan Survey, Consumer Confidence as of Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Fig. 2: US/Japan short-term policy rate curve spread as of 1 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) One of the key economic data points, other than the inflation trend, that the BoJ monitors to determine and set the path of monetary policy in Japan, is the quarterly Tankan surveys on manufacturers, which poll their outlook on overall business conditions, considering profits under current conditions and for the next three months. The latest Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large Japanese manufacturers (in index form) has further improved to 14 from 13 in Q2, which is also its highest reading since Q4 2024, as trade tariff tensions between the US and Japan have eased since the finalization of the US-Japan trade deal in early September 2025 (see Fig. 1) Hence, the short-term interest rate futures market in Japan has continued to price in an interest rate hike by the BoJ in Q4 2025. This observation is evident in the US-Japan implied policy rate curve spread. The monthly implied short-term interest rate spread (via short-term interest rate futures) between the US and Japan has continued to narrow in the next three months from the October 2025 print of 3.25% to 3.12% in November 2025, 2.99% in December 2025, and 2.80% in January 2026. In addition, the current US-Japan implied policy rate curve spread has shifted downwards from three months ago at this juncture (see Fig. 2). The further narrowing of the US/Japan implied short-term interest rate spread is likely to put downside pressure on the USD/JPY. The 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread is breaking below a major support level Fig. 3: Yield spreads of US Treasury/JGB with major trend of USD/JPY as of 2 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The yield premium between the 2-year US Treasury note and the 2-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has broken below a former major support of 2.90% since the week of 18 August 2025 and narrowed further to 2.69% at the time of writing. The 10-year yield spread between the US Treasury note and JGB is now challenging the 2.47% major support after it hovered slightly above it for the entire month of September 2025. Right now, it is staging an intraday breakdown with a current level of 2.45% (see Fig. 3) The continued narrowing of the yield differential indicates that 10-year US Treasuries are becoming relatively less attractive compared to 10-year JGBs, a dynamic that may in turn place downside pressure on USD/JPY. Let’s now examine the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective to determine its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend bias and key technical levels to watch. Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 2 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 5: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 2 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias below 147.80/148.10 short-term pivotal resistance for USD/JPY within its range configuration for the next intermediate support to come in at 146.70, followed by the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” range support now at 146.30. A break below 146.30 triggers a potential medium-term bearish breakout of the USD/JPY for a multi-week bearish impulse down move sequence to expose the next 145.20 intermediate support in the first step. Key elements The price actions of the USD/JPY have traded below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which are now acting as a key short-term resistance zone of 147.80/148.10 (see Fig. 4).The hourly Stochastic oscillator of the USD/JPY has now risen to a resistance level of 75, which is coming close to its overbought zone (above the 80 level) (see Fig. 4)The USD/JPY has undergone a 5-month bearish “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.89, with the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” now acting as a key medium-term support at 146.30 (see Fig. 5).The daily MACD trend indicator of the USD/JPY has flashed out a bearish crossover condition at this juncture after it formed a resistance on Monday, 29 September 2025. These observations suggest a potential imminent change of medium-term trend condition on the USD/JPY from sideways to a downtrend (see Fig. 5).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 148.10 invalidates the bearish scenario for the USD/JPY and sees a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 148.60/148.90, followed by the key medium-term resistance of 149.90 (the upper boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” range configuration). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today. Fundamental Events Analysis: Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials. However, it's worth noting that numerous ECB and Fed representatives gave interviews on Monday and Tuesday, which had absolutely no noticeable effect on the movement of major currency pairs. Thus, today's remarks are unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro or the dollar. The market remains tense and cautious. It is anticipating developments around the U.S. government shutdown, as well as labor market and unemployment data reports that may not be published due to the same shutdown. This uncertainty leaves traders nervous and frequently hesitant to enter new positions. General Conclusions:On this penultimate trading day of the week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may continue to move upward. The British pound has completed its downtrend, and the euro likely has too — even though it hasn't broken through the trendline yet. For EUR/USD, the key trading area to watch is 1.1745–1.1754. For GBP/USD, active trading opportunities are found near 1.3466–1.3475. Both levels can serve as starting points for short-term tactical decisions depending on price action behavior around those zones. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15-20 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Following a massive Q3 performance, Solana (SOL) has kicked off “Uptober” with a bounce, attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its bullish rally. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency is ready to challenge the recent highs and enter a new price discovery phase. Solana Starts ‘Uptober’ In The Green After the recent market correction, Solana has started the new quarter with a 7.3% bounce from yesterday’s lows. Last week, the cryptocurrency fell from its recent highs and hit a local low of $190 after closing below the $200 support for the first time in nearly a month. Over the weekend, the altcoin reclaimed the crucial barrier and attempted to turn the $205-$210 area into support during the last two days of September. After closing the month around the $208 level, SOL’s price bounced 5.3% on Wednesday morning toward the $220 mark. Some market watchers previously noted that $218 level was the most important level for the cryptocurrency’s recovery, as the largest supply wall exists around this level. This level coincides with Solana’s $120-$220 macro range high. Analyst Crypto Jelle considers that SOL “is ready for its second expansion wave for the cycle” after months of re-accumulation, the September rally, and the successful retest of the breakout level. Amid today’s pump, the analyst affirmed that the cryptocurrency has “one last hurdle to overcome” before the rally to new highs begins. Per the post, once Solana turns the $250 level into support, the altcoins will be “in for a great end of the year.” Similarly, Altcoin Sherpa suggested that SOL will likely rally toward the $230-$235 area and above if Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market remain stable. Corporate Momentum, ETFs To Fuel Q4 Rally Solana’s momentum has been partially driven by growing corporate interest in the cryptocurrency, with SOL-focused Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) pouring billions of dollars into the strategies over the past few months. On October 1, Nasdaq-listed VisionSys AI Inc. announced a $2 billion SOL-based treasury strategy in partnership with Marinade Finance, Solana’s leading staking protocol. The initiative aims to “strengthen VisionSys’s balance sheet, enhance liquidity, and create long-term shareholder value through the strategic acquisition and staking of Solana (SOL),” the announcement reads. Marinade Finance will serve as VisionSys’s exclusive staking and ecosystem partner, and the program’s first phase is set to acquire and stake $500 million in SOL within the next six months. Additionally, the pending approval of multiple crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has raised expectations for an October rally. In August and September, the regulatory agency pushed its final decision deadline for multiple crypto investment products, including SOL-based ETFs, between mid-October and mid-November. On Monday, Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas affirmed that “the odds are really 100% now.” “Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless,” he explained, adding, “That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready.” As of this writing, Solana is trading at $219, a 11.1% increase in the monthly timeframe.

Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, the trade war is ongoing, and the Federal Reserve is still leaning toward cutting rates two more times before the end of the year. Therefore, we maintain our bearish outlook on the dollar. On the hourly chart, a descending trendline was broken a few days ago, indicating a shift in the short-term trend to an upward direction. The technical picture also favors continued growth in the GBP/USD exchange rate. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, price movements yesterday were volatile and erratic. During the European session, the pair repeatedly attempted to either bounce off or break through the 1.3466–1.3475 area. However, a clear directional move only began after the release of the ADP report in the U.S. It was practically impossible to react to the initial buy signal in real time. The first signal that new traders could realistically act on was a bounce from the 1.3529 level. After this bounce, the price returned to the 1.3466–1.3475 zone, allowing for a modest but successful profit on the trade. How to Trade on Thursday:On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has completed its previous downtrend. As we've stated before, there are no fundamental reasons for the dollar to sustain any long-term growth, so our medium-term outlook remains bullish for the pair. Recent developments in both the UK and the U.S. temporarily supported the dollar, leading to justified short-term gains. However, the overarching fundamental picture still works against the greenback, and the downtrend is over. On Thursday, GBP/USD may continue to rise. A bounce from the 1.3466–1.3475 area will once again create opportunities for long positions targeting 1.3529–1.3543. A confirmed break below the 1.3466–1.3475 zone would shift focus to the downside, making shorts toward 1.3413–1.3421 relevant. Levels to Watch on the 5-Minute Timeframe: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. No major economic events are scheduled in the UK for Thursday. The U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, which are typically considered a secondary-tier report. As such, today's market movements may be weaker but also more technically driven. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 20 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade erratically, effectively moving sideways. The primary reason behind this choppy and unattractive behavior was the macroeconomic environment. Both the EU and the U.S. released several significant reports, each triggering its own market reaction. The day began with euro area inflation data, which, unlike German inflation, did not exceed forecasts. This disappointed traders and triggered a decline in the value of the euro. Later during the U.S. session, an extremely weak ADP labor market report was published. This report could serve as the main reference going forward if the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is delayed due to the government shutdown. According to ADP, the U.S. economy lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September — a dismal figure. The situation was slightly redeemed later in the day by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 49.1, slightly above the 49.0 forecast. In general, the pair reacted in different directions throughout the day. The macroeconomic backdrop continues to look pessimistic for the U.S. dollar. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, numerous trading signals were generated on Wednesday. However, all of them were undermined by conflicting economic data. Each time a technical signal formed, a new macro report would be released shortly afterward, reversing the current price direction. For this reason, trading on Wednesday was only feasible if traders responded directly to real-time macroeconomic data. How to Trade on Thursday:On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is still technically in a downtrend and has not yet broken through the trendline. The broader fundamental and macro backdrop remains unfavorable for the dollar, so strong greenback appreciation still seems unlikely. From our perspective, as before, the dollar can only count on short-lived technical corrections — one of which appears to be unfolding now. For Thursday, EUR/USD is expected to trade around the 1.1745–1.1754 zone. A rejection from this area would be a reason to open short positions targeting 1.1666. A breakthrough above this zone would make long entries toward 1.1808 viable. Today's macro backdrop is relatively quiet, so more technical and smoother market movements are expected compared to Wednesday. Levels to Watch on the 5-Minute Timeframe: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Thursday, the eurozone will release its unemployment report, alongside U.S. weekly jobless claims. Both reports are considered secondary and may provoke only small or short-lived market reactions. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With the RSI in the Extreme-Bullish area and both EMAs showing a Golden Cross, #NDX today has the potential to rally toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25064.1 2. Resistance. 1 : 24920.6 3. Pivot : 24663.9 4. Support. 1 : 24520.4 5. Support. 2 : 24263.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks and closes above 24663.9, it could move toward 25064.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,064.1 is successfully breached and closes above it, the Nasdaq 100 index could test the 25320.8 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX drops and closes below 24,263.7. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 24697.3 EMA(200): 24597.1 RSI(14) : 72.42 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - Challenger Job Cuts y/y - 18:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative US - Factory Orders m/m - Tentative US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Platinum] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With all technical indicators pointing to bullish conditions, such as the RSI being at a Neutral-Bullish level and both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, today #PLF has the potential to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1654.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 1624.8 3. Pivot : 1600.7 4. Support. 1 : 1570.8 5. Support. 2 : 1546.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1600.7, it has the opportunity to test the next level at 1624.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1624.8 is breached and closes above that level, #PLF could strengthen further up to 1654.7. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Platinum drops and closes below 1546.7. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 1596.6 EMA(200): 1577.8 RSI(14) : 55.65 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - Challenger Job Cuts y/y - 18:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative US - Factory Orders m/m - Tentative US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Early in the European session, gold is trading around 3,865, below the 21SMA, and within the uptrend channel formed on September 19. Gold reached a high at about 3,895. From this level, we have seen a series of technical corrections. So, the instrument is likely to continue its decline until reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,840. If gold consolidates above 3,870 in the coming hours, we could expect a resumption of the uptrend. Hence, the metal could reach 3,906 around +2/8 Murray. On the other hand, while the gold price is trading below 3,870, the outlook could be negative, and a technical correction is expected that could push the price to the Murray level of 8/8 at around 3,750 in the short term. Gold appears overbought on the daily chart, so a pullback to the 3,890 or 3,895 level is likely to be seen as an opportunity to sell. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal on the H4 and H1 charts, so short positions could be an option. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading around $118,750, around 6/8 Murray, and within the bullish trend channel formed on September 28. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold reached the 119,350 level, which coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction for Bitcoin, which could reach the 21SMA around 117,247, and potentially even reach support at the bottom of the bullish trend channel, currently at 116,750. If Bitcoin consolidates above 118,750, it is expected to reach the top of the bullish trend channel around 119,566 and potentially surpass the psychological level of $120,000. On the other hand, if bullish strength prevails and Bitcoin breaks above $120,000, it is likely to reach the 7/8 Murray level around 121,875. Conversely, with a break below 116,700, we could expect Bitcoin to fall to the 200 EMA around 113,500 and the strong support of the 4/8 Murray level around 112,500. The eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so a technical correction for Bitcoin is likely in the coming hours, after which it could resume its bullish cycle. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro is trading around 1.1735, above the 200 EMA, above the 21 SMA, and above the 8/8 Murray, which could indicate a recovery. However, EUR/USD is under bearish pressure as it is located within a downtrend channel. If the euro falls below the 8/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could indicate a further bearish movement. Therefore, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 in the short term. A sharp break above 1.1765 could favor a recovery for the euro. In the short term, it could reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 and even reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart is showing a positive signal for the euro, so a recovery will follow in the coming days. To do this, we should keep an eye on the 1.1765 level; above this area, we will look for long positions. This week, US employment data will be released, so we should pay close attention to a breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern, as we could expect a sharp decline toward the 7/8 Murray around 1.1596. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana (SOL) shook off a swift sell-off to $205 on Tuesday, rebounding above $209–$216 as institutional-sized wallets scooped the dip while over-levered retail longs were flushed. The slide coincided with U.S. shutdown jitters across risk assets, but crypto quickly mirrored equities’ intraday recovery. Order-flow dashboards (anchored CVD in the $1M–$10M bucket) show pro buyers adding on weakness, while funding briefly flipped negative—an attractive setup that encouraged fresh longs in spot and perps. Solana ETF Speculation Keeps Bulls Optimistic Ahead of October 10 The next major milestone for Solana is set to arrive on October 10, when the SEC is expected to decide on several spot Solana ETF applications. While reports suggest that regulators have asked some asset managers to withdraw filings tied to certain altcoins, analysts argue this is more of a procedural move than a rejection. Many believe October, already being dubbed “Cointober”, could see multiple crypto ETFs advance, echoing the pattern that fueled Ethereum’s breakout earlier this year. This ongoing ETF narrative, combined with Solana’s swift recovery from volatility, has helped maintain strong bullish sentiment among traders and institutions alike. On-Chain Tug-of-War: Veterans Take Profit, Newcomers Hold the Line Under the surface, Solana’s holder base is divided. Liveliness has increased, suggesting long-term holders (LTHs) are gaining strength after a three-month upward trend. At the same time, 1–3 month holders now control about 14.4% of the supply, the highest in five months, indicating growing short-term conviction. That “old guard vs. fresh capital” conflict has effectively kept the price above the rising trendline, even as profit-taking episodes occur. Institutional flows remain the key factor. Talk among market participants about asset-manager positioning ahead of an ETF decision, combined with ongoing builder activity in Solana DeFi, supports steady medium-term demand. If Bitcoin dominance diminishes, high-beta L1s like SOL typically attract additional flows. Will Solana Break $214 Resistance and Target $232? Technically, SOL regained its weekly median range after the flash crash, indicating underlying strength. Immediate support is at $206; breaking below it could open the door to $200, weakening the three-month bullish trend. On the upside, $214 and $221 are the near-term barriers; a close above both could lead to the $232 target flagged by multiple traders. Beyond that, the larger pattern resembles ETH’s pre-$4,000 breakout, with $270 serving as the next major resistance if momentum picks up before or after the ETF decision. Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview

Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,320. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,400 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,250 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $4,180 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,400 and $4,420. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,120 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,250 and $4,320 resistance levels. Besides, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $4,180 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The price even spiked toward $4,400 and might continue to rise. A high is formed at $4,400 and the price is still stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $4,093 swing low to the $4,400 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,400 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,420 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,500 level. A clear move above the $4,500 resistance might send the price toward the $4,550 resistance. An upside break above the $4,650 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,720 resistance zone or even $4,800 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,400 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,320 level. The first major support sits near the $4,250 zone. A clear move below the $4,250 support might push the price toward the $4,200 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,120 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,050. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,320 Major Resistance Level – $4,400

Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory. As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631. Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a broad sideways channel — between 1.3364 and 1.3631 — for approximately four and a half months. Therefore, a reversal may follow quickly from one of the upcoming resistance levels at 1.3631 or 1.3700. On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is also rising, indicating bullish pressure. The local trend is upward. We now await confirmation that the price can confidently consolidate above the 1.3525 level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that the stock market is already overheated — meaning it could fall independent of political drama. In such a case, investors would be left with only one rational decision: to buy government bonds and the U.S. dollar. So far, there's an appearance of risk appetite — over the last three days, EUR/USD candles have developed long upper wicks, indicating sustained upside suppression. As noted in yesterday's outlook, conditions for sluggish euro growth remain in place, potentially extending toward the upper boundary of the price channel at around 1.1910. Whether this level will be reached depends largely on the effectiveness of political messaging and whether investors begin to rotate out of equities and into government debt. A confirmed drop below the MACD line and under the 1.1703 level would be the first signal of shifting sentiment. The Marlin oscillator remains neutral at the moment. The nearest bearish targets are 1.1605 and 1.1495. On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving sideways within a moderately wide consolidation zone above the zero line — a sign that risk interest is still present. This sentiment could persist if the price breaks above the MACD line (1.1765). Conversely, a move below 1.1703 would amplify bearish pressure. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Australian dollar remained calm in response to yesterday's news about the suspension of funding for several U.S. government agencies, continuing the upward movement that began three days ago. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above both key indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the positive zone, taking a brief pause before potentially continuing the uptrend. The target at 0.6668 remains open, and a firm consolidation above this level could lead to further gains toward 0.6755. The alternative (bearish) scenario would require a sustained move below the MACD line (at 0.6564). In that case, the downside target opens at 0.6450. In the 4-hour timeframe, the pair is consolidating above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has reset slightly, indicating readiness for another bullish wave. The short-term trend remains upward, and the target at 0.6668 is still in play. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government shutdown. Bitcoin Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the blame. However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US government shutdown, recording strong gains earlier today. CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that September saw deeper losses among short-term holders (STH), as their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell as low as 0.992. As a result, most of September was marked by STH continuing to sell their BTC holdings at a loss. However, the metric recovered slightly to 0.995, although it is still below August’s reading of 0.998. The current STH-SOPR reading is showing signs of stabilization after a period of depression. It is interesting to note the timing of this recovery, as it occurred at a time when BTC is trading in the high $110,000 range, slightly below a heavy resistance zone. Past data shows two potential scenarios that can happen following such a reset in the STH-SOPR. First, it could be early warning signs of a weakening momentum for BTC, as extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands capitulate. The other, more bullish scenario, is that it could be a healthy reset. Quick absorption of realized losses often paves the way for more sustainable rallies, which could catapult BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. The CryptoQuant analyst added: With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market health. If buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg higher. Will BTC Decline In Q4 2025? While the dwindling active circulating supply of Bitcoin offers some hope to the bulls, others are not as optimistic. According to recent analysis by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, demand for BTC cooled after it failed to hold above $115,000. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently remarked that BTC is likely to experience another 20% decline from its current price, reaching his projected target range between $90,000 – $94,000. At press time, BTC trades at $117,226, up 3.5% in the past 24 hours.

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points. In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the first half of the year, it's certainly holding its ground. (Of course, this is said half-jokingly — the pound sterling hasn't really done anything to deserve a 15-cent rally in 2025. It was the dollar that collapsed by 15 cents.) If not for the fundamentally disastrous backdrop in the U.S., we would never have seen such a sharp upward move in the pound, a currency that, along with the euro, has only been falling for the past 17 years. It's evident that the British economy is not fundamentally strong enough to justify the high demand for the pound. The UK's economic situation has remained poor since 2016. The current U.S. government shutdown resembles an episode from a new "mini-series from HBO." It's unlikely that the shutdown will last for months, but this particular stoppage of government operations carries special weight. It doesn't even matter which exact policy issues are to blame for the deadlock between Democrats and Trump. What matters is that for the first time during Trump's second term, Democrats finally have a chance to push back. Let's remember: Trump has passed most major decisions unilaterally, and the entire Republican party has been operating in lockstep under his direction. Because Republicans hold the majority in both chambers of Congress, they haven't needed Democratic approval for most legislation. Currently, however, the Senate must pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year — and it requires more than a simple 50%+1 majority. For a budget, 60 votes are needed. But there are only 53 Republicans in the Senate, which normally suffices for most legislation, but not for the budget. This gives Democrats a rare opportunity to play a decisive role in 2025 policymaking. Adding to the political complexity, midterm congressional elections are scheduled for next year, and Republicans risk losing control of the House of Representatives. We believe that's quite likely, as many of Trump's decisions have objectively worsened the quality of life for everyday Americans. The "Great Future" Trump promised has yet to materialize. Now is the Democrats' moment to demonstrate their strength to the American public. They'll stand firm, prioritizing the rights of socially vulnerable groups — a key component of their platform heading into the 2026 election cycle. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 88 pips, considered average for this pair. On Thursday, October 2, we expect price movement within the range of 1.3392 to 1.3568. The longer-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming the continuation of a bullish trend. The CCI indicator recently dipped into oversold territory, signaling a potential resumption of the uptrend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3428S2 – 1.3367S3 – 1.3306Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3489R2 – 1.3550R3 – 1.3611Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is currently in a correction, but its long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar, so we don't expect any sustained recovery of the greenback. Long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 become especially relevant if the pair trades above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, short-term short positions may be considered with technical targets at 1.3367 and 1.3352. Occasionally, the dollar shows signs of correction (as it does now), but for a true trend reversal, it needs real progress — such as the end of the trade war or other major positive developments. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a downward movement on the third trading day of the week. However, overall behavior has remained consistent — this is still a gradual upward trend on the lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart, the euro has been rising steadily for the past month and a half, indicating no fundamental change in price behavior. The euro still tends toward growth, but it's a slow grind. Why? It's challenging to answer definitively, but we can assume the initial wave of panic associated with Donald Trump's policies has passed. From here, the euro may climb more calmly — unless, of course, a sudden shock sends the dollar into another tailspin. Yesterday, like other days this week, the dollar offered nothing but trouble. And what else could be expected under the current circumstances? Wednesday marked the first day of the government shutdown, and no one knows how long it will last. Of course, a shutdown is not the same as a total economic halt like we saw during the pandemic, but it does involve the closure of many federal institutions. Workers will either be laid off or sent on unpaid leave. Will these Americans — perhaps as many as one million — continue to spend as they usually do? No, they will start cutting back. Many private-sector companies that rely on government contracts will also suffer as a result. In short, the U.S. economy will absolutely be impacted by the shutdown. The only question is: how severely? Meanwhile, the eurozone released its September inflation report. The day before, Germany had reported higher-than-expected inflation, which raised expectations for a stronger euro area number — but those hopes were quickly dashed. Headline inflation came in at 2.2%, and core inflation at 2.3%, exactly in line with forecasts. The euro declined mainly because inflation rose only modestly — although, in our view, it wasn't supposed to rise in the first place, especially after the European Central Bank spent years trying to suppress it. Yet the market was disappointed by "low" inflation because it suggests that the ECB won't be moving to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. That's the key point: If inflation were climbing like in the U.S. or the U.K., the ECB might be forced to consider raising interest rates again — something it had been reducing aggressively over the past 12–15 months. Although this seems improbable at this point, we'd argue it shouldn't be ruled out entirely. It's also worth noting that while the euro fell, the British pound held steady, which further confirms that the inflation data was responsible for the euro's weakness. Overall, the market remains unresponsive to most major events currently unfolding in the U.S. and Europe. Volatility is still relatively low, and the pair's movement is flat on virtually all timeframes. The shutdown has not (yet) had any noticeable impact on the dollar's exchange rate. As of October 2, the average volatility for EUR/USD over the last five trading days sits at 65 pips — considered "moderate." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1657 and 1.1797 on Thursday. The longer-term linear regression channel points upward, indicating that the broader uptrend remains in effect. The CCI indicator entered overbought territory, triggering the current phase of downward correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1719S2 – 1.1658S3 – 1.1597Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1780R2 – 1.1841R3 – 1.1902Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD is currently undergoing a correction, but the broader upward trend remains intact across all timeframes. The U.S. dollar remains heavily influenced by Donald Trump's policies — and he doesn't appear to be backing down. The dollar has gained as much as it can over the past month and now seems to be poised for a new leg of extended weakening. If the price remains below the moving average, traders may consider taking short positions with targets at 1.1667 and 1.1597, based solely on technical signals. If the price rises above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in line with the existing trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade... sideways throughout Wednesday. In recent days, we didn't expect the market to settle into a flat range, but at this point, we can confidently say the pair is in either a sideways channel or a movement that strongly resembles one. There remains an upward tilt, yet macroeconomic data and fundamentals have almost no lasting influence on price movement. To be more specific, individual economic reports do trigger market reactions, but these reports often contradict one another—preventing any sustained trend formation. Wednesday was a textbook example. Eurozone inflation data came in exactly as forecast and understandably led to a decline in the euro. Then, during the U.S. session, the ADP employment report for the U.S. was released with weak numbers, which led to a weakening of the dollar. But a couple of hours later, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out slightly better than expected (by just 0.1 points), yet it triggered notable dollar strength. Three reports — all pointing in different directions. On the 5-minute chart, several trade signals were generated; however, reviewing them has little value since each time a signal formed and the price began to move, another report was released that reversed the move. It seems this flat market is less a sign of consolidation and more a product of conflicting short-term catalysts. Nonetheless, sideways movement remains the dominant theme. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. As the chart above clearly shows, the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish." Bears barely managed to gain control at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office for his second term as president, the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, but current global developments suggest otherwise. We still see no fundamental reasons for the euro to weaken, while there remain plenty of reasons for the dollar to fall. The global downtrend remains in place, but what does it matter now where the price moved over the past 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may recover, but recent events suggest that the war will continue in one form or another. The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The positions of the red and blue lines of the indicator continue to indicate a bullish trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 2,600. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts for the week. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend. However, this trend cannot yet be considered finished, as price movement remains mostly sideways and has not broken above the 1.1750–1.1760 area or the Senkou Span B line. That said, we still see no compelling reason to expect a sustained dollar rally. The daily chart clearly shows that the broader uptrend remains intact. For October 2, the following trading levels are highlighted: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as key Ichimoku lines: Senkou Span B (1.1782) and Kijun-sen (1.1715). Please note that these Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, so they should be monitored when identifying trade signals. Don't forget to place your Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 15 pips in your favor — this protects you from losses if a signal turns out to be false. On Thursday, the Eurozone will release its unemployment report, and the U.S. will publish jobless claims. Both are considered secondary reports. After three days of near-flat movement, such conditions are likely to continue today. Trading RecommendationsOn Thursday, the euro could continue its recovery. For traders to confirm the end of the bearish trend, the price needs to break above the 1.1750–1.1760 area and the Senkou Span B line. A rebound from this area will support short positions; however, it is worth noting that the dollar currently receives little support from news catalysts. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD pair also moved in various directions on Wednesday, influenced by the macroeconomic backdrop. During the early part of the day, the British pound continued its technical recovery. However, in the second half of the day, volatility surged. First, the U.S. ADP employment report was released with a negative figure. Then came the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed a "conditionally-positive" result. As a result, the dollar initially weakened, then strengthened — and now, a new downtrend is visible on the hourly timeframe. The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of strain, and this Friday's usual Nonfarm Payrolls may not be published due to the government shutdown. The shutdown — effectively a halt in all government operations due to the lack of an approved budget — has largely shut down federal services. It is likely that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the NFP report this week. While ADP and NFP reports rarely align exactly, the overall trend is quite apparent. On top of already troubling labor market data, the shutdown adds further pressure on expectations. As such, the chances of any meaningful rebound in the dollar this week are slim. Despite the multi-directional movement, the 5-minute GBP/USD chart showed a clearer structure throughout the day compared with the EUR/USD pair. However, not a single viable trading signal was generated. So, although the price action was decent, traders had no proper entry points. COT Report COT reports on the British pound indicate that, in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly shifting. The red and blue lines, representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and mostly hover near the zero mark. Currently, they are nearly at the same level, indicating roughly equal numbers of long and short positions. The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so in principle, market makers' demand for sterling is not especially important right now. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for an extended period. The Fed will cut rates in the coming year anyway. Demand for the dollar is expected to continue declining. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound appreciated significantly, and the reason behind this change is clear: the policies of Trump. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may shift into growth, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position of the pound rises or falls. For the dollar, it is falling anyway, usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis In the 1-hour timeframe, GBP/USD continues to develop a new upward trend. The trendline was broken previously, which gives traders justification to expect further gains. The dollar still lacks strong fundamental backing, so we anticipate the continuation of the 2025 upward trend. On Tuesday, the pair bounced from the Senkou Span B line — around the same time that the ISM manufacturing index came out somewhat better than expected. However, this moment of dollar strength has not altered the overall picture. Key levels for October 2 include: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Key Ichimoku indicator lines: Senkou Span B (1.3524) and Kijun-sen (1.3425). The Ichimoku levels may fluctuate throughout the day, so real-time updates should be closely monitored. Also, once the price moves 20 pips in your favor, a Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven to minimize risk. No major economic releases are expected from the UK on Thursday. The U.S. will publish weekly jobless claims, a minor report. As such, volatility may remain low, and trend-based intraday movement could be limited. Trading RecommendationsOn Thursday, traders can expect a potential continuation of the upward movement. However, there are no nearby price levels or Ichimoku lines likely to generate fresh signals. The last buy signal occurred on Tuesday after a bounce from 1.3420. With no immediate resistance levels nearby, the pound has no technical barriers to continuing its rise. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com