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The Ethereum price has once again crossed the $4,500 threshold, trading just 9% below its all-time high of $4,946, prompting a surge of bullish predictions for the leading altcoin. Bullish Reversal For Ethereum Price Market expert Gert van Lagen took to X (formerly Twitter) to share his insights, suggesting that the Ethereum price is currently following a “textbook” expanding diagonal pattern on its biweekly chart. As seen in the expert’s chart below, this expanding diagonal pattern is characterized by a series of rising trend lines, indicating a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Over the past month and a half, the Ethereum price has consolidated between $4,200 and $4,600, with a brief drop towards $3,800 on September 25th. This met significant demand, resulting in a swift recovery of the $4,000 support level. By connecting the lower points of these downward movements—known as waves 2 and 4—with the upper points of waves 1, 3, and 5, a triangular or diagonal shape emerges. According to van Lagen’s analysis, this pattern signifies a shift in momentum for the Ethereum price from bearish to bullish, often leading to a significant upward breakout. Bitcoin (BTC) led the market recovery also approaching record levels above $120,000. Van Lagen noted that Ethereum’s Wave v is nearing completion, supported by a final corrective a-b-c wave. Specifically, Wave a has successfully broken above the crucial resistance level of $3,650, retested it for support in the b wave, and is now poised for the final impulse in wave c, aiming for an ambitious target range of $9,000 to $18,000. The Path Forward For ETH Adding to the optimistic sentiment, market analyst Mr. Wall Street has expressed a similarly bullish outlook, asserting that the Ethereum price is on track to reach its final price target for this cycle, estimated between $7,000 and $8,000. However, both analysts agree that Ethereum’s ability to surpass its previous record near the $5,000 mark will be pivotal as this level is expected to act as a significant resistance barrier should the current recovery continue. Looking ahead, market analyst Michael van de Poppe has also weighed in, predicting that the coming weeks will see Bitcoin experience an upward bounce before undergoing a slight correction. Following this, he anticipates the Ethereum price will begin to gain momentum. “Given that the BTC pair is currently holding up well and has undergone a standard correction, I believe we will see Ethereum pick up steam in the near future,” van de Poppe stated. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could target $139,000 next, according to this on-chain pricing bands model. Bitcoin Has Broken Past 0.5 SD MVRV Deviation Band In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where Bitcoin may be heading next based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This pricing model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap. The former represents the value currently held by the BTC investors, while the latter is a measure of the value that they initially put in. As such, the MVRV Ratio basically represents the profit-loss balance of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap and the average investor is sitting on an unrealized gain. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the investors as a whole may be considered underwater. The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands takes the mean of the MVRV Ratio and calculates standard deviations (SDs) from it. It then determines price levels that correspond to these standard deviations. Below is the chart for this Bitcoin pricing model shared by the analyst. As is visible in the graph, the mean of the MVRV Ratio is currently situated at $94,650 in the model. What this means is that if Bitcoin declines to this level, the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to its mean. During BTC’s recent decline, its price slipped below the +0.5 SD level of $116,700. With the latest recovery run, however, it has smashed past it. The next level on the model is the +1 SD, located at $138,800. Bitcoin has surged above this band twice in the current cycle so far, with a top following for the cryptocurrency shortly after each break. The explanation behind the trend could lie in the fact that investors become more likely to participate in profit-taking selloffs the higher their gains get. The MVRV Ratio being 1 SD above its mean corresponds to holder gains being notably higher than the norm. As such, it’s not surprising to see that BTC topped out shortly after crossing the threshold during both of the 2024 breakouts. It now remains to be seen whether this latest surge above the +0.5 SD level will lead Bitcoin to another retest of the +1 SD band, or if the run will fizzle out before it can happen. BTC Price Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery run of almost 7% over the last week that has taken its price to the $119,200 level.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade very calmly. Still, it is worth recalling that the U.S. dollar has recently accumulated several fresh factors of weakness. Whether the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be released today remains unclear, with contradictory news circulating. However, even without these releases, the situation looks obvious. We have often noted that ADP and NonFarm Payrolls figures for the same month rarely align closely. The market, therefore, tends to focus more on Nonfarm Payrolls for assessing the labor market. What the two reports do share, however, is the trend: both show different numbers but a consistent deterioration month after month. So, even if we don't know exactly how many jobs were created in September, we can confidently say the overall count keeps declining. No one expected that a single round of Fed monetary easing would instantly revive the labor market—certainly not within two weeks. Thus, the weak ADP number was hardly surprising. The real question now is: how should the Fed act, and which data can it rely on if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics halts operations due to the shutdown? If the shutdown truly affects statistical agencies, then no NFP, unemployment, or inflation reports will be available in the near term. This also means the Fed won't have them. Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that Federal Reserve decisions are data-driven. But without data, how can they decide on rates? After the ADP release, markets raised the probability of a rate cut to 85%, yet even here, we would not be 100% confident about two more cuts before year-end. If inflation continues rising, as it has in recent months, the Fed's decisions could turn out to be far less dovish than the market expects. It's worth recalling that in recent years, markets have often anticipated aggressive dovish action from the Fed, whereas in practice, the measures have been more modest. Still, if markets are now pricing in two cuts by year-end, why isn't the dollar falling sharply? A shutdown, a labor market setback, and heightened dovish expectations are all fresh factors against the dollar that emerged only in the past week. Listing its global problems again seems redundant—the outlook remains unchanged: dollar weakness. Current sluggish moves appear completely unjustified. The average GBP/USD volatility over the last five trading days is 81 points, which is classified as "average." On Friday, October 3, we expect movement within the 1.3351–1.3513 range. The higher linear regression channel is pointing upward, signaling a clear bullish trend. The CCI entered oversold territory, again warning of a potential trend resumption. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3428 S2 – 1.3367 S3 – 1.3306 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3489 R2 – 1.3550 R3 – 1.3611Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair is in a correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, and we do not expect sustainable growth of the U.S. currency. As long as the price remains above the moving average, long positions toward 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain the priority. If the price moves below the moving average, small short positions may be considered, with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3351 (based on technical analysis only). The U.S. dollar exhibits occasional corrections (as seen now), but lasting strength requires clear evidence of the end of the trade war or other major positive developments. Explanations for Charts:Linear regression channels: indicate the current trend. When both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.Moving average line (20.0, smoothed): shows the short-term trend and trading direction.Murray levels: serve as targets for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines): likely price channel for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility.CCI indicator: entering the oversold zone (below -250) or overbought zone (above +250) signals a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade very calmly, without sharp moves or significant volatility. Once again, the first week of the new month is proving to be dreadfully dull. As a reminder, the first week of each month usually brings important U.S. macroeconomic data. However, in recent months, despite genuinely interesting and high-impact releases—particularly labor market reports—we increasingly observe extremely low market interest in immediately pricing in this information. This week also seems quiet on the surface, although its events are far from ordinary. The U.S. ADP employment report turned out to be "below the floor," quite literally—if we consider the zero level to be that floor. Previously, the U.S. labor market showed weak numbers; now it shows negative ones. Additionally, the U.S. entered yet another government shutdown this week. In reality, shutdowns don't happen very often, but even once every 5–6 years is hardly insignificant. Interestingly, shutdowns have occurred only under Trump's presidency in recent years. The first one became the longest in U.S. history, and the current one could be very painful for the country. A shutdown is not just a "forced vacation." Many government agencies cease operations, and these agencies have a significant impact not only on public institutions but also on private businesses and legal entities tied to government contracts. Moreover, up to 1 million federal employees could be furloughed simultaneously, with some potentially being permanently dismissed. This means up to 1 million people will stop working indefinitely and will not receive salaries during this time. Naturally, their spending will decline sharply, which will affect the broader U.S. economy, growth rates, and other macroeconomic indicators. Against this backdrop, the dollar's weak decline this week looks quite surprising. Even in recent weeks, when the greenback seemed relatively stable, there were already plenty of reasons for a stronger sell-off. The 4-hour chart does not look encouraging. In recent days, the pair has failed to either hold above the moving average or bounce from it. The market is stuck in uncertainty, as Friday's NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment data will likely not be published this time. If so, conclusions about the labor market will rely solely on the ADP report, and expectations of further deterioration will grow due to the 1 million federal employees who have been furloughed or dismissed. Thus, with each passing day, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar worsens. The average EUR/USD volatility over the past five trading days (as of October 3) is 58 pips, classified as "average." We expect movement between 1.1649 and 1.1765 on Friday. The higher linear regression channel is pointing upward, confirming the prevailing uptrend. The CCI entered the overbought zone, which triggered another corrective move. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1658 S2 – 1.1597 S3 – 1.1536 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1719 R2 – 1.1780 R3 – 1.1841Trading Recommendations EUR/USD continues to correct, but the uptrend is intact across all timeframes. The U.S. dollar remains heavily pressured by Donald Trump's policies, which show no sign of stopping. The dollar strengthened for as long as it could (an entire month), but it now seems ready for a new prolonged decline. If the price stays below the moving average, small short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1597 (purely technical setup). If the price moves above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902 in continuation of the trend. Explanations for ChartsLinear regression channels: indicate the current trend. When both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.Moving average line (20.0, smoothed): shows the short-term trend and trading direction.Murray levels: serve as targets for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines): likely price channel for the next 24 hours, based on current volatility.CCI indicator: entering the oversold zone (below -250) or overbought zone (above +250) signals a potential trend reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Analysis, 5M On Thursday, GBP/USD also traded lower, although the British pound had absolutely no grounds for decline. One might assume that the euro pulled the pound down with it, but even the euro's fall raises questions—particularly since it started two hours after the weak unemployment report was published. The technical picture on the hourly timeframe remains unchanged. Despite Wednesday's and Thursday's declines, the new uptrend is still valid, though it remains very weak and uncertain as long as the Senkou Span B line is not broken. Friday may not provide clarity either and could create even more confusion. For starters, it is still unclear whether U.S. labor market and unemployment data will be released. Many experts argue they won't, since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has been shut down. At the same time, doubts remain that the reports might still be published. On the 5-minute chart, the first sell signal appeared when the downward movement was already ending. The price broke through the Kijun-sen line and the 1.3420 level, but within half an hour it returned above them. At this point, the breakout of the critical line can be considered false. COT Report COT reports on the British pound indicate that, in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has shifted constantly. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, intersect frequently and usually hover near the zero mark. Currently, they are almost at the same level, indicating a roughly equal number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, so demand from market makers for the pound is not particularly significant at this time. The trade war is likely to persist in some form for an extended period. The Fed will have to cut rates within the next year. Dollar demand will decline regardless. According to the latest report on the pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 new long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts in a week. In 2025, the pound rose significantly, and the reason is clear: Donald Trump's policies. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could resume growth. But no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position of the pound rises or falls. On the dollar, it's falling anyway—and usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD Analysis, 1H On the hourly chart, GBP/USD maintains a new uptrend. The trendline has been broken, giving traders reason to expect further growth. The dollar still lacks global drivers for strength, so we expect the 2025 uptrend to resume in almost any scenario. This week, the pair rebounded from the important Senkou Span B line, which triggered a correction. However, the price did not drop below the critical line. For October 3, the following key levels are highlighted: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Senkou Span B (1.3524) and Kijun-sen (1.3432) can also generate signals. The stop loss should be moved to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which must be considered when identifying signals. No important events are scheduled in the UK on Friday. In the U.S., however, three key releases are on the calendar: the Non-Farm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Services Index. It is still unclear whether the first two will actually be published. Trading Recommendations Today, traders can expect growth to resume. The Kijun-sen line was falsely broken, and Thursday's decline in the pound was not justified. However, the outlook depends entirely on U.S. macroeconomic data—and on whether it is released at all. Chart Notes: Support/Resistance Levels – thick red lines marking zones where movement may end. Not direct trading signals.Kijun-sen & Senkou Span B – Ichimoku indicator lines (shifted from H4 to H1), key technical levels.Extremum Levels – thin red lines marking past rebound zones, sources of trading signals.Yellow Lines – trend lines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Indicator – shows net positions of trader categories.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Analysis, 5M On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly declined. Over the past couple of weeks, the dollar has accumulated several new factors that weaken its position against its competitors. Yet instead of a natural rise in the pair, we see either flat movement or even declines. From our perspective, the dollar should already be plunging into another downturn, so these "twitches" can hardly be called movement—nor are they particularly logical. The formal reason for the euro's decline on Thursday was the unemployment report in the euro area, which showed that the rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. This could have triggered pressure on the euro. However, the drop started about two hours after the report, so it is uncertain whether that was the real driver. Still, there were no other factors behind the euro's fall. Overall, this week began with a U.S. government shutdown, while the ADP report showed further job losses in the private sector. On the 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were generated. Throughout the European session, the price attempted to bounce off the 1.1750–1.1760 area and eventually succeeded. Later, the Kijun-sen line was broken, but the pair failed to reach the nearest target. Traders could have opened shorts but had to close them around the critical line or set Stop Loss to breakeven and hold the trade until the end. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. As seen above, the net position of non-commercial traders had long been "bullish." Bears briefly gained the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump began his second term as president, the dollar has been in steady decline. While we cannot claim with 100% certainty that this trend will continue, current global developments strongly suggest that it will. There are still no fundamental factors supporting the dollar's strength, while many remain that support its decline. The global downtrend remains intact, and concerns about the Fed's potential loss of independence add further pressure on the U.S. currency. During the last reporting week, longs among the "Non-commercial" group fell by 800 contracts, while shorts rose by 2,600. As a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD Analysis, 1H On the hourly chart, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, although it cannot yet be considered complete, as the price is moving sideways and has not broken the 1.1750–1.1760 area or the Senkou Span B line. However, we still see no grounds for sustained dollar growth. The daily chart clearly shows that the overall uptrend remains intact. Key trading levels for October 3 are: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1782) and Kijun-sen (1.1722). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day and should be monitored. Always set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This reduces the risk of loss if a signal proves false. On Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver another speech, but no major policy shifts are expected. In the U.S., key reports are scheduled for release: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Manufacturing Index. However, the first two may not be published due to the shutdown. Trading Recommendations On Friday, the euro's recovery may continue. Traders need to overcome the 1.1750–1.1760 area and the Senkou Span B line for the downtrend to be considered broken. A rebound from this zone supported short entries with targets at 1.1666, but we still do not believe in a sustainable dollar rally—unless U.S. data surprises strongly to the upside. Chart Notes: Support/Resistance Levels – thick red lines marking zones where movement may end. Not direct trading signals.Kijun-sen & Senkou Span B – Ichimoku indicator lines (shifted from H4 to H1), key technical levels.Extremum Levels – thin red lines marking past rebound zones, sources of trading signals.Yellow Lines – trend lines, channels, and other technical patterns.COT Indicator – shows net positions of trader categories.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin (DOGE) has started October with renewed strength, riding a wave of bullish technical patterns and increasing global adoption that continue to boost optimism among traders and long-term holders alike. As momentum grows, analysts are closely monitoring key resistance levels around $0.33 and higher as DOGE shows signs of consolidating for its next big move. The technical outlook is supported by on-chain signals and open interest inflows, indicating that market participants are gearing up for further upside. Golden Cross Formation and Technical Strength On multiple timeframes, Dogecoin is completing a Golden Cross pattern, a bullish signal that occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one. Historically, such setups have preceded major rallies in both DOGE and the wider altcoin market. Currently, DOGE trades near $0.258, after defending support at $0.25, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns with the point of control. Analysts, including Cas Abbe and Trader Tardigrade, have highlighted rising momentum. The MACD histogram has turned green on the 12-hour chart, suggesting strengthening buying pressure. A breakout above the $0.33 resistance zone could open the door to $0.37, a potential 60% rally from current levels. Market structure also shows consistent higher lows, reinforcing demand even during short-term pullbacks. Adoption Expands Beyond Speculation Beyond technical indicators, Dogecoin’s adoption story is becoming a strong driver. Buenos Aires recently approved DOGE for tax payments, marking a step toward real-world use of cryptocurrencies. This follows earlier efforts by businesses and institutions exploring Dogecoin for payments, adding legitimacy beyond its meme roots. Meanwhile, futures market data shows bullish sentiment. Open interest in Dogecoin derivatives increased nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, with more than $3.9 billion in DOGE locked in. Exchanges like Gate, Binance, and Bybit lead with billions of dollars wagered, reflecting growing trader confidence. $1 Dogecoin (DOGE) Target Within Sight? Short-term targets for Dogecoin remain centered on $0.30 and $0.34, but analysts are also considering longer-term prospects. According to one projection, DOGE’s consolidation pattern on weekly charts could serve as the basis for a parabolic rally toward $1 by 2026. This scenario would mean over 330% gains from current levels, aligning with Dogecoin’s history of explosive, community-driven surges. For now, DOGE needs to stay above the $0.22 support and break through the $0.33 barrier. If bullish momentum continues through October, which is historically a strong month for cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin could not only regain higher resistance levels but also strengthen its position as the most resilient meme coin in the market. Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart on Tradingview

The phenomenal +150% run that saw Ethereum dramatically outperform Bitcoin has officially hit the brakes. After fueling the recent altcoin mini-season, the crucial ratio has stalled out completely, exhibiting 40 days of stagnation. With the main engine of the altcoin market now idling, the initial euphoria is fading, raising serious concerns about the stability and short-term future of nearly every asset outside of BTC. Is Ethereum Entering A Healthy Accumulation Phase? The powerful momentum behind altcoins has evaporated following the stagnation of the ETH/BTC ratio. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades has highlighted that after a monumental +150% run from its low against Bitcoin, ETH performance has completely stalled for the last 40 days. This pause immediately translates into palpable weakness across the board, with momentum-driven sentiment turning sour quickly as most altcoins start to retrace what they gained in the months prior. While altcoin traders prefer to see their tokens rally, the analyst views the current shift as a necessary and potentially healthy correction. He suggests that it’s beneficial that BTC is absorbing some of the bid and liquidity again as it works to pull the entire market out of its current slump consolidation. Daan Crypto Trades identifies the ETH/BTC ratio as being in “no man’s land” currently, adding that he would only regain interest in the pair if it moved back above the 0.041 level or a decisive retest of the 0.032 level. However, the expert concluded that whatever ETH does against BTC will remain the primary barometer for the overall health of the altcoin market and the BTC Dominance trend. Therefore, this key pair should be monitored closely. Reversal Signals Strengthen On The 4-Hour Chart Technical analyst GeoMetric is calling the end of the market slump, basing his bullish forecast on clear signals from his proprietary Gaussian Breakout screener. According to GeoMetric, BTC, ETH, and most Altcoins have all successfully broken out of their Gaussian channels on the 4H chart. The expert views this as a firm confirmation of a reversal, provided these assets can maintain their position above the mid-line of the channel. GeoMetric noted that BTC has flipped bullish on almost every major time frame except for the 3-day chart, which is the last holdout. Also, he has expressed his focus on the time frame for now. While considering this as a relief and great start to October overall, the market has finally turned the corner after a difficult week, characterized by liquidations, widespread capitulation, and generally terrible sentiment. He acknowledges the difficulty of maintaining a positive outlook when the market is collapsing. “As convinced as I was, it’s never easy bull posting amidst the FUD and asking everyone to hold the line, and it takes a lot out of me,” GeoMetric stated.

Metallium Limited (ASX: MTM; OTCQX: MTMCF) announced Thursday that its subsidiary, Flash Metals USA has executed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a division of Swiss commodities giant Glencore (LON: GLEN). The MOU, which is effective immediately, creates a framework for a potential long-term collaboration in electronic scrap supply and metal offtake in the United States. It’s subject to negotiation and execution of final definitive agreements, and runs until the end of the year, Metallium said. The company’s patented Flash Joule Heating (FJH) technology was developed at Rice University and enables the extraction of materials including gallium, germanium, antimony, rare earth elements, and gold from feedstocks like refinery scrap, e-waste and monazite to date. Under the terms of the deal, Glencore will be a major supplier of feedstock to Metallium’s first commercial facility – Technology Campus in Chambers County, Texas – the site of its first commercial-scale metal recovery plant in the US. Glencore will also provide technical services for incoming feedstocks, including assaying. Glencore will purchase up to 75% of Metallium’s production of marketable recycled products, including metallic metals, metal chlorides and metal hydroxides. Specialty metals excluded Metallium retains the option to independently market high-value niche products such as gallium, germanium, indium and rare earth elements. In September, Flash Metals USA was awarded a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract by the US Department of Defense (now Department of War) valued at $65,200. The award applies to Metallium’s proprietary heating process for recovering gallium from waste streams, including LED scrap. These feedstocks also contain germanium and other valuable metals, broadening the project’s strategic impact, the company said. “Executing an MOU with Glencore marks a defining milestone for Metallium. Glencore ranks among the world’s most successful diversified natural resource companies and its Horne Smelter in Quebec is North America’s largest processor of electronic scrap containing copper and precious metals,” Metallium CEO Michael Walshe said in a news release. Walshe added that the agreement secures critical feedstock supply, covering a significant share of Metallium’s Stage 1 requirements, “and supports our planned expansion to Stage 2, positioning Metallium alongside one of the most influential players in global recycling as we build a natural network of plants near major collection hubs and data center corridors.” Both parties are working toward executing a definitive binding agreement by the end of the year, according to Walshe.

As Bitcoin (BTC) steadily makes its way toward its current all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, optimism seems to be returning to the market. However, fresh data from Binance shows that BTC’s gains barely outweigh the risks posed by the digital asset’s volatility. Bitcoin Maintaining A Risk-Reward Balance According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, latest data from Binance – the world’s leading cryptocurrency trading platform in terms of liquidity – suggests that BTC is currently maintaining a risk-reward balance. Specifically, the Sharpe-like ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.18, a figure very close to neutral territory. To explain, a Sharpe-like ratio measures how much return an investment generates relative to the risk it takes, similar to the Sharpe ratio but often using adjusted benchmarks or risk measures. When the Sharpe-like ratio is above 0.5, investing in Bitcoin becomes attractive since the potential returns outweigh the risks. On the contrary, a negative reading of the ratio discourages investors from taking risks, since volatility exceeds returns. During 2024, when the cryptocurrency market was largely weak and volatile, the Sharpe-like ratio spent most of the time in the negative territory. In contrast, the ratio reached elevated levels, signaling a strong uptrend, at the beginning of 2025. Currently, the Bitcoin market is trading between the two extremes – the market is neither dangerous nor in a powerful uptrend. Notably, the market appears to be in a phase of equilibrium and accumulation, as it trades close to $119,000. Arab Chain added: The latest figures show that the 30-day average return stands at just 0.26%, highlighting that the market is not delivering outsized gains; investors entering now are likely to see only modest profits relative to risk. Meanwhile, 30-day volatility is around 1.37%, which indicates a natural, moderate level of price fluctuation – not excessively calm but not alarmingly unstable either. BTC Needs A Catalyst For Next Leg Up The CryptoQuant analyst added that the BTC market is currently awaiting a bullish catalyst or strong inflows to extend its uptrend. However, if the Sharpe-like ratio falls below zero again, then a period of price correction may follow. On the flipside, the ratio sustaining above 0.5 for several days – coupled with a price breakout above the $120,000 to $122,000 range on healthy volume – would suggest a fresh upward trend for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. Recent on-chain data hints toward a potential rally setup for BTC. Notably, the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) recently recovered slightly to 0.995. That said, Bitcoin must defend the important $90,000 support level to avoid entering a new bear market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,788, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours.

Fan tokens get fresh momentum as Chiliz launches official merch auctions and Alpine’s ALPINE token whipsaws on heavy volume. On Wednesday, Chiliz rolled out limited-edition merchandise bundles inside the Socios.com app, aiming to reward active fans and spark more activity across its sports-token network. The bundles containing a T-shirt, hoodie, socks, hat, stickers, and a linked NFT are up for grabs from Oct. 1 through Oct. 18. Access is restricted to “Reward Points Auctions,” which require users to bid with points earned by staking fan tokens purchased with CHZ. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time The timing coincides with sharp price swings in Alpine F1 Team’s ALPINE fan token, a reminder of the volatility that often pulls traders back into the category. Chiliz said the “only way to grab these bundles is through Reward Points Auctions on the Socios.com App,” and added that further drops are coming in the weeks ahead. Those may feature collaborations with creators or seeding programs designed to broaden fan engagement. Could ALPINE’s Volatility Signal a Broader Fan Token Comeback? The company framed the drop as a response to growing community demand following smaller test runs in recent months. The auction windows will open on October 1, one bundle per size (S-XL), and will remain open until October 18. By the time of the release, ALPINE was trading close to $1.52 and had traded between $1.43 and $1.89, having fallen approximately 17%. (Source: Coingecko) According to CoinGecko data, the daily trading volume of ALPINE was nearly $150M, which is an indicator of the volatility that is still drawing attention back to fan-token markets. On-chain activity is connected to physical rewards through merch auctions, a long-term proposal by Chiliz and Socios to tokenize assets based on football clubs and other teams. Chiliz has also been busy throughout this quarter with events and new partnerships, ensuring that the brand remains visible as the industry explores ways to utilize it beyond trading. ALPINE is a token that has been closely monitored since the end of September. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time It shot up late last week and then relinquished some of its gains in a rapid pullback, a tendency typical of thin-liquidity markets, which trade on changing narratives. “Get ready to rock the chain on October 1st,” Chiliz wrote, explaining how fans can earn and bid Reward Points by staking tokens in the Socios.com app. “This is just the beginning,” the post said, adding that more bundles and content could follow if demand holds. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 ALPINE Price Prediction: Is Alpine F1 Fan Token Holding Strong at $1.60 Support? ALPINE/USDT is back at a key level. Crypto analyst Nihilus shared that the perp pair is testing support around $1.60 after a steady slide from September’s highs. Price has printed lower highs and lower lows, dragging the market into the $1.60-$1.40 area, which aligns with the 0.62-0.79 Fibonacci band. Candles show repeated defense near $1.60, hinting at dip-buying even as pressure stays on. (Source: X) Momentum is stretched. Oversold readings increase the likelihood of a short-term rebound. A clean push above $1.80 would mark a short-term recovery and put $2.40-$2.80 back in view. Until that happens, the bigger picture remains unclear: the chart has trended downward since the $3 peak. If $1.60 gives way, bears have room to press toward $1.40. For now, ALPINE sits in a tight, make-or-break band. The next move likely hinges on who wins the $1.60-$1.80 fight. DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2025 The post Are Fan Tokens Making a Come Back? ALPINE Crypto Erupts as Chiliz Drops New Merch appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Although this week has already brought a number of important events and economic data, the amplitude of price movements remains extremely low, and trader activity is subdued. If we had seen a four-day strengthening of the euro by now, I would not have considered such a move unusual. However, instead of a logical rise in the euro, we are witnessing sideways choppiness in a very narrow range. The market is in no hurry to trade, despite all the conditions for active trading being present. In fact, this week has delivered just one report that outweighs all others – the ADP employment data. Inflation in the eurozone or the U.S. manufacturing PMI are important releases, but they are not what drives the market at the moment. In most cases, participants wait for the unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls reports to make final judgments. However, this week, there is nothing to wait for, and the labor market can only be assessed based on the ADP report. As I have already mentioned, this report came out extremely weak. The number of new jobs amounted to -32,000 against much higher expectations. And if the Nonfarm Payrolls report does not get published, as is now expected, neither the Fed nor the market will have any choice but to conclude solely from ADP. I don't think it's necessary to spell out how the market should react to such a "positive" number. And, in fact, markets have already reacted—unfortunately, all except the currency market. Futures markets are now pricing in a 99% probability of another round of monetary policy easing in October and an 87% probability of a further rate cut in December. In other words, the market is almost 100% certain that two additional rounds of easing will occur in 2025. If that is indeed the case, why isn't the demand for the U.S. currency declining? In such situations, one must think outside the box and recall that manipulation often occurs in the market. In other words, I believe the market could very well decline somewhat to confuse everyone and then sharply rise upward. Moreover, it won't even need fresh data or new economic statistics for that. The reasons to sell the U.S. dollar are already more than sufficient. Wave Pattern for EUR/USD: Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new U.S. Administration. Targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 1.25 area. Currently, a corrective wave 4 is being formed, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I only consider buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to the 1.2245 level, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD: The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still dealing with a bullish impulse segment of the trend, but its internal structure has become less clear. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave 4 will turn out to be much more complex and longer than wave 2. In my view, the best approach right now is to lean on the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new purchases. Key Principles of My Analysis: 1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and frequently undergo changes. 2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out. 3. One can never have 100% certainty about the market's direction. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders. 4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

1.20 per euro is the minimum projected exchange rate for EUR/USD by year-end. Most banks and economists agree with this forecast. The news background for the dollar in 2025 is not just poor—it keeps worsening. Just a couple of weeks ago, the market was still digesting Donald Trump's new import tariffs (covering all medicines, trucks, and furniture) and the FOMC rate cut, when a government shutdown had already begun in the U.S., while the labor market continued to cool. Currently, demand for the U.S. currency has not declined significantly, but I believe the market will factor these considerations in later. The Federal Reserve has not just carried out one round of monetary easing. Most likely, the central bank will be forced to continue easing in the coming months, since the labor market shows no signs of recovery. It remains unclear on which reports one can even base an analysis of labor market conditions, given that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has temporarily halted operations. It is also questionable how accurate the October data will be, considering the shutdown. In short, there are now far more questions than answers concerning the U.S. economy and the dollar. Economists note that investors are increasingly hedging risks associated with the dollar, with the euro (and other currencies) being the main beneficiaries of such hedging flows. Many analysts also believe that the dollar's sell-off is far from over. For example, Peter Schaffrik, a macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, argues that what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg—the worst is yet to come for the dollar. Goldman Sachs expects the euro to rise to 1.25 over the next 12 months. JPMorgan forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22 as early as March of next year. Investment bank UBS projects 1.23 by the beginning of 2026. One way or another, everyone is betting on a stronger euro and a weaker dollar. It is worth remembering, however, that the euro and the dollar are both global currencies, and they cannot stage rallies of 10% per month. Wave Pattern for EUR/USD: Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new U.S. Administration. Targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 1.25 area. Currently, a corrective wave 4 is being formed, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I only consider buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to the 1.2245 level, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD: The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. We are still dealing with a bullish impulse segment of the trend, but its internal structure has become less clear. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave 4 will turn out to be much more complex and longer than wave 2. In my view, the best approach right now is to lean on the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new purchases. Key Principles of My Analysis: 1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and frequently undergo changes. 2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out. 3. One can never have 100% certainty about the market's direction. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders. 4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair continues to test resistance at 1.1750. At this price point, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. For the past three days, traders have been pressing against this barrier but repeatedly pulling back to the 1.1730 area, reflecting indecision on both sides of the market. On the one hand, bullish sentiment dominates (bears cannot even approach the 1.16 area), while on the other, most buyers lock in profits above 1.1750, after which sellers regain control. As a result, EUR/USD has been stuck in a 1.1710–1.1770 range despite the broader weakening of the dollar. Notably, nearly all fundamental factors are in favor of the EUR/USD bulls. Weak U.S. labor market reports, stagnation of the core PCE index, accelerating inflation in the eurozone, and, ultimately, the government shutdown—all these either weigh on the greenback or support the euro. Against this backdrop, the indecisive stance of buyers looks illogical, given that the dollar is backed only by cautious comments from certain Federal Reserve officials (Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan) who oppose aggressive rate cuts. The U.S. currency also reacted positively to the ISM manufacturing index published yesterday, although only the headline figure was in positive territory. Most components (new orders, prices paid) reflected negative dynamics, highlighting worrying trends. Moreover, the headline index remained in contraction territory (49.1), even if slightly above expectations (49.0). The Fed's position is also mixed. Indeed, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed "moderately hawkish" views, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Hammack in particular noted that in her view inflation is now "a more serious problem than the labor market." She advocated for restrictive monetary policy "necessary to cool inflation." Logan echoed this, saying she intends to remain cautious about rate cuts. At the same time, other Fed officials softened their rhetoric, reinforcing confidence that the central bank will cut rates twice more this year. Boston Fed President Susan Collins supported further easing "if incoming data justify such a decision," stressing that upside risks to prices have weakened while risks to the labor market have grown. According to Collins, labor demand is expected to continue weakening, which will push unemployment higher. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also voiced concerns about labor market conditions, which he believes "need support." He expressed confidence that price pressures will ease significantly early next year. It is worth noting that the market maintains a dovish stance, ignoring the cautious and "moderately hawkish" remarks of some Fed officials. Traders are focusing instead on macroeconomic indicators pointing to a cooling U.S. economy. The August JOLTS report showed a decline in hiring, while the September ADP report actually entered negative territory for the first time since December 2020. According to the agency, private-sector employment fell by 32,000 last month, with the August figure revised down from +50,000 to -3,000. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index further worsened the outlook for the greenback, falling to 94.2 versus a forecast of 96.0. While the decline may seem minor, it marked the second consecutive monthly drop and the weakest reading since April. The report's structure showed a deterioration in perceptions of current conditions—the Present Situation Index fell by 7 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index fell to 73.4, remaining below the 80-point threshold since February and signaling rising recession risks. Cautious remarks from some Fed representatives were insufficient to outweigh the heavy flow of macroeconomic data, leaving overall market sentiment dovish and exerting steady pressure on the dollar. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at this month's FOMC meeting is 99%, with an 85% chance of another cut in December. Moreover, markets are pricing in a 40% probability of a further 25-basis-point cut at the January meeting. The rise in dovish expectations adds further pressure on the U.S. currency. Adding to this, the government shutdown that began on Wednesday is expected to be prolonged, given the uncompromising stance of both Democrats and Republicans, who refuse to make concessions. According to preliminary White House estimates, the shutdown will cost about $15 billion in weekly GDP losses. Thus, the overall fundamental backdrop favors further growth in the EUR/USD. However, long positions should only be considered once the pair consolidates above resistance at 1.1750 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines on the daily chart). The next bullish targets lie at 1.1800 and 1.1850 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4 and the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on D1, respectively). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Central banks are usually less agile than hedge funds or asset managers. However, they control enormous reserves of $12 trillion. If they begin diversifying by selling one currency and buying another, the consequences for Forex could be massive. In this regard, the reduction of the U.S. dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves to 56.3%—the lowest level since 1995—has seriously alarmed EUR/USD bears. Could the process of offloading the greenback already be underway? Dynamics of the U.S. Dollar's Share in Central Bank Reserves There are plenty of reasons for concern. The highest tariffs since the 1930s, along with attempts by the White House to undermine the Fed's independence, are fueling hostility toward the greenback. Donald Trump's "big and beautiful" tax cut law is expanding the deficit and national debt. The president is not opposed to a weaker dollar to boost the competitiveness of U.S. companies abroad. Finally, the division of the world into West and East due to the war in Ukraine is opening the door for de-dollarization. In fact, the decline in the dollar's share of reserves has been driven not by central banks abandoning it, but by exchange rate depreciation. From April to June, the U.S. dollar fell 9% against the euro, 11% against the Swiss franc, and 6% against the pound. Thanks to the EUR/USD rally, the euro's share rose to 21%, its highest since 2021. Factors Shaping Central Bank Reserve Allocation Thus, central banks are not yet ready to trigger tectonic shifts in the FX market. The EUR/USD uptrend is primarily the result of divergences in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Fed, as well as differences in economic growth. Still, the bulls are looking increasingly exhausted, making it harder to sustain momentum. The pair is supported by the looming government shutdown and disappointing private-sector employment data from ADP. Historically, U.S. government shutdowns have led to a weaker dollar index due to fears of slower economic growth. This time could be even worse: the labor market is cooling, and Donald Trump is threatening mass layoffs of government employees. It is no surprise that the futures market has raised the probability of a federal funds rate cut at the October FOMC meeting to 99%, and to 87% for December. If the ECB holds steady in 2025 while the Fed continues easing monetary policy, the dollar will face significant pressure, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived. On the daily chart, EUR/USD is consolidating in the 1.1715–1.1785 range. A break below the lower boundary would increase the risk of a pullback toward 1.16 and justify short positions. Conversely, a decisive breakout above 1.1755 and 1.1785 would be a signal to add to long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hedera (HBAR) is gaining momentum as “ETF season” heats up and technical patterns align for a potential upward move. After bouncing from a September low near $0.205, HBAR has formed constructive patterns, an Elliott Wave advance, a double bottom, and a 10-week descending wedge, that together suggest a bullish turn. With a final decision on a proposed HBAR spot ETF expected in November, traders are wondering if a clear break above $0.23–$0.24 could lead to the $0.30 level. ETF Season Puts HBAR in the Spotlight Macro tailwinds are strengthening, with the SEC expected to make decisions on numerous crypto ETF applications in October–November. Analysts believe that current listing standards improve the chances of approval. Hedera, which has been under review for a spot ETF since 2024, could benefit from an increase in approvals that would expand U.S. investor access. Additionally, Hedera’s reputation in the enterprise sector, governed by reputable council members and involved in real-world finance initiatives like SWIFT panels and public-sector pilots, supports positive sentiment and keeps HBAR relevant as institutions seek scalable, low-cost settlement solutions. Elliott Wave & Wedge Patterns Flag Upside Continuation On the daily chart, HBAR completed a double bottom at approximately $0.205 (on September 5 and 26), with a neckline around $0.255. Price action has since contracted into a falling wedge lasting over 10 weeks, often a sign of upcoming breakouts, while analysts view the move as Wave 2 within an Elliott Wave cycle that started with a 140% surge from late June to late July. A shift into Wave 3, typically the longest and most impulsive phase, would bring the year-to-date high of about $0.3065 into focus, with potential to challenge last November’s peak of around $0.40 if momentum broadens. Market internals are also improving, with a rising Chaikin Money Flow indicating steady net inflows. A move above $0.242–$0.248 could trigger approximately $32 million in short liquidations, fueling any upside breakout. Hedera Key Levels to Watch: $0.22 Support, $0.30 Resistance, and $0.40 Target The near-term structure remains tight. Traders need a clear close above $0.230–$0.242 to confirm a wedge breakout; reaching $0.248 could trigger forced short exits, boosting gains. Breaking above $0.30 would confirm the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and support the Elliott Wave projection toward $0.3065, then $0.35–$0.40 as market breadth improves. On the downside, $0.205 serves as the main invalidation level. A daily close below the double-bottom would diminish the bullish momentum and could lead to a drop towards $0.198. Until then, positive ETF headlines and strong flows suggest that the Upside bias in October remains intact. Cover image from ChatGPT, HBARUSD chart on Tradingview

Dogecoin is cooling off after its recent rejection near $0.307, with price action now consolidating between $0.220 and $0.240. Despite the pullback, bullish momentum remains intact, and market signals suggest a retest of the $0.32 level could be only a matter of time. Critical Support Validated, Bulls Eye $0.32 Retest Master Kenobi, in a fresh DOGE chart update, pointed out that the red dashed line has once again acted as a strong support level. This confirmation aligns with the point earlier highlighted by the yellow arrow, showing that the level was accurately identified as a realistic and critical zone for price stabilization. According to his analysis, this support has provided DOGE with the foundation needed to sustain its bullish structure. With the current momentum, the price now looks set to make another attempt at retesting the $0.32 level, a key resistance zone that could dictate the next major move for the token. Kenobi emphasized that the outlook remains promising so long as no unexpected global events disrupt the wider market environment. Such disruptions could temporarily derail the bullish setup, but under normal market conditions, DOGE is maintaining the strength required to continue pushing higher. Looking ahead, he suggested that if momentum holds, the all-time high marked by the yellow line and red rectangle on the chart could be reached far sooner than many anticipate. In fact, Kenobi believes the ATH may arrive in less than 30 days, provided the support levels continue to hold and bullish sentiment strengthens further. This suggests a very aggressive timeline for the bullish scenario. Consolidation Signals Preparation For Next Major Move According to the latest update from BitGuru, Dogecoin staged a strong rally earlier, making an impressive bullish run toward the $0.307 level. The sharp upward move drew significant attention from traders and investors, but the rally was short-lived as DOGE faced heavy resistance at that zone, leading to a swift rejection and halting further progress. Following the rejection, Dogecoin has slipped into a consolidation phase, with price action now largely moving between the $0.220 and $0.240 range. This sideways trading suggests that the market is in a state of balance, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched, waiting for fresh catalysts to drive the next significant move. Currently, the market is attempting a pullback, testing the strength of nearby support levels. If the consolidation breaks upward, DOGE could retest the $0.307 zone and aim higher. However, failure to sustain momentum may drag the price lower, possibly challenging deeper supports below $0.220.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 2 Towards the end of trading, U.S. stock markets resumed their climb to new highs, especially in technology stocks. This rebound happened even though the Trump administration had created some unease by proposing to cut "thousands" of federal jobs on the second day of the government shutdown. The Nasdaq 100 index surged to its second consecutive record high, fueled by renewed excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) after a share sale by OpenAI. This transaction made OpenAI the world's most valuable startup, with a staggering $500 billion valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose by 1.9%, thanks to strong performances from companies like AMD and Intel. The S&P 500 managed to reverse an earlier decline, ending up 0.06%. By the end of the trading session, investors largely shook off their anxieties about the Trump administration's proposals, which Republicans had hoped would pressure Democrats to vote to reopen the government. President Trump is reportedly meeting with his budget director to discuss these potential permanent job cuts. Adding to the market's complexities, traders were also dealing with a temporary halt in economic data releases, as Thursday's weekly jobless claims report was delayed due to the shutdown. If the government shutdown continues, this lack of crucial data could make it harder to justify future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Read More: Markets Today: Swiss Inflation Steady, Gold Nears $3900/oz, DAX Eyes Potential 900 Point MoveUSD/JPY: A medium-term yen bullish breakout looms, watch 146.30AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? US stock markets finished the day with slight gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.39%. The US dollar strengthened against both the euro and the yen, ending its four-day losing streak against the Japanese currency as traders assessed the ongoing impact of the US government shutdown. The dollar index rose 0.13%. Conversely, the euro fell slightly, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, and the British pound weakened as traders began considering the potential impact of the UK's upcoming November budget on the economy. Meanwhile, gold prices fell by nearly 1% after retreating from a record high set earlier in the session. This drop was triggered by comments from Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan, who advised caution regarding any further interest rate cuts. Finally, oil prices settled down by about 2%, hitting their lowest point in four months, extending their decline for a fourth straight day amid concerns about market oversupply ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView A look at Economic data releasing on Friday Friday promises to be intriguing with markets all set for the NFP release at the beginning of the week. The Asian session will bring Japans unemployment rate and a speech by Governor Ueda as markets continue to grapple with the prospect of a BoJ rate hike in October. In Europe we will get PPI and PMI data as well comments from ECB policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde. When it comes to the US session, the US government shutdown has complicated matters with mixed messaging around the data filtering through. According to reports from CNN, BLS September labor data has been collected and is likely ready for release. Despite the ongoing government shutdown, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has requested that the September jobs report be released on Friday, according to an aide. Furloughed BLS employees informed Warren's office about the status of the data. The CNN report also stated that according to BLS staff and former commissioner Beach, the September data is collected and likely ready. However, a government shutdown halts the scheduled October 3rd release per Labor Department plans. A lot of mixed messages at this stage makes the next 24 hours even more interesting. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Safe Trades! Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) is acquiring one of the most established rare earth metal and alloy producers outside of China, a move that it says represents “a significant acceleration” of its mine-to-magnet strategy. Earlier this week, the company announced that it will acquire United Kingdom-based Less Common Metals (LCM), which currently produces both light and heavy rare earth permanent magnet metals and alloys at scale at its 67,000-square-foot facility in Cheshire. LCM is one of the few companies capable of processing metal oxide feedstocks from both mined and recycled sources, USAR said. Metals and alloys produced at its facility include samarium, samarium cobalt, neodymium-praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium and gadolinium. Under the terms of the agreement, USAR will pay $100 million cash and issue 6.74 million common shares to acquire LCM. At the time of announcement, its stock traded at $18.70 apiece, but has since gone up nearly 30%, hitting an all-time high of $23.36 on Thursday. It currently trades at nearly $23 a share for a market capitalization $2.61 billion. “The acquisition of LCM is a bold and transformative leap forward for our company and the domestic rare earth industry,” said Michael Blitzer, chairman of USAR, in a press release dated Sept. 29. “Midstream metal making is the linchpin of the global supply chain, and LCM is the only proven ex-China producer of rare earth metal, alloys and strip casting at scale. Over three decades, LCM has brought proven expertise and world-class capability and is the sole Western provider of critical defense materials such as samarium cobalt metal,” he added. Vertically integrated strategy USAR is in the process of building a sintered neo magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, which is currently planned to go commercial in the first half of 2026. At full capacity, the facility will be able to produce nearly 5,000 metric tons or hundreds of millions of magnets annually, according to company estimates. The facility is part of USAR’s vertically integrated, mine-to-magnet supply chain strategy, underpinned by the Round Top deposit in West Texas, where it produced its first sample of dysprosium oxide earlier this year. “The production of dysprosium oxide is significant due to its critical role in advanced technologies that rely on the unique properties of heavy rare earth elements,” USAR said at the time, noting that dysprosium is a key component in technologies such as semiconductors, as well as in many neodymium magnets, which are essential for high-efficiency electric vehicle motors, wind turbine generators, and advanced defense systems. The company, which debuted on the NASDAQ mid-March, previously said that it would invest $100 million in the manufacturing facility, after successfully producing its first batch of magnets in January. “The combination of USAR-LCM will establish rare earth metal making in the United States for the first time in decades, as we move quickly to integrate these capabilities in Stillwater, OK, to provide all of the feedstock for the buildout of our 5,000-ton-magnet production facility,” Blitzer said. “Our ambition is also to expand LCM’s capabilities in both the United Kingdom and Europe, supporting the broader ex-China industry with a wide range of defense and industrial applications.”

The XRP price has often drawn ambitious forecasts, but few as outrageous as a recent prediction placing its potential value at $170,000 per token. This projection not only suggests that XRP could surpass the current price of its primary rival, Ethereum, but even dethrone Bitcoin, which has an ATH above $124,000. The crypto analyst behind this bold claim openly rejects conventional valuation models, arguing that they belong to the “old world” and are incapable of measuring the disruptive potential of blockchain-based assets. Why A $170,000 XRP Price Isn’t “Impossible” XRP long-term price forecasts continue to grow bolder as the market evolves, with the latest prediction by crypto analyst ‘XRP Dragon,’ suggesting that reaching $170,000 is not only possible, but inevitable. The analyst argued that the reason many dismiss such a target is due to an insistence on applying “old world math” to an emerging digital economy that operates under different principles. To illustrate this distinct perspective, the analyst shared a video alongside his analysis on X social media, featuring a woman who explained the reasoning behind his bold $170,000 forecast. She likened the misconceptions surrounding XRP’s price potential to how people viewed the internet in its early days. She explained that back in 1995, it would have made no sense to measure the transformative power of the internet through an outdated tool like the phone book. This is because, at the time, the internet was creating an entirely “new world” that the phone book could not capture. She argues that a similar shift is occurring with money today. Many still rely on old-world concepts, such as market capitalization, a measure that works in the old paper system. However, this obsolete system is falling apart as the world transitions into a new era of digital money. According to her, using outdated calculations like market cap to define XRP’s potential value is akin to trying to fit a revolutionary new technology into a framework designed for the past. Related Reading: Analyst Highlights 2 Scenarios That Sends XRP Price To $9.6 And $33 She further added that the foundation of global finance is shifting rapidly as banks, countries, and eventually trillions of dollars transition onto digital rails. Within this system, XRP is designed to serve as the connecting bridge that enables value to flow between institutions and across borders. From this perspective, the $170,000 XRP price projection is not an impossible or unrealistic target but an “inevitable” outcome, if the asset is measured according to the digital system it was created for. XRP Repeats 2017 Bull Run Pattern New technical analysis further reveals that XRP is showing signs of repeating its historic 2017 bull cycle. According to crypto analyst EtherNasyonal, back then, XRP followed a precise sequence of accumulation, rally, re-accumulation, and then another explosive move upward before entering distribution. The analyst’s chart shows that XRP is mirroring the exact pattern seen during the 2017 bull run. Already, XRP has passed through its accumulation and initial breakout phase, now sitting in a consolidation zone. If price action repeats past patterns exactly, another strong move higher could emerge in 2025. EtherNasyonal predicts a potential price surge toward $10 before the distribution phase kicks in.

The first shipment of tungsten concentrate (WO3) from Trinity Metals’ Nyakabingo mine in Rwanda arrived this week at Global Tungsten and Powders’ (GTP) plant in Towanda, Pennsylvania. Officials from Trinity Metals, GTP and Traxys were joined at the facility by the US Ambassador to Rwanda and The Deputy Rwandan Ambassador to the US to witness the arrival. GTP is the largest tungsten processor in the US and is part of Austria’s Plansee Group, a global manufacturer of tungsten-made components used in aerospace, defense and industrial applications. Tungsten is listed by the US government as a critical mineral needed to support the economy and enhance national security. The country has not mined tungsten domestically since 2015, while its chief rival China accounts for about 83% of global supply. Under the commercial agreement reached in August, GTP’s processing facilities have begun receiving material from Rwanda for processing into high-quality tungsten and tungsten carbide powders that are used to produce finished components for industrial end uses. “It is an honor to see our material from Rwanda here at one of the largest tungsten processors in the world being converted into products that will help make America safer, stronger, more prosperous,” Trinity Metals Chairman Shawn McCormick said in a news release. “In turn, the nearly 7,000 employees of Trinity Metals and government of Rwanda will benefit from such market access and the deepening of strategic ties between the two countries,” McCormick said. Trinity Metals was formed in 2022 by merging three historic mines, Nyakabingo tungsten mine, Rutongo tin Mine and Musha tin and tantalum mine making it the largest producer of conflict-free and child labor-free critical minerals in Rwanda, the company said. Trinity said it has also discovered a highly prospective Lithium deposit called Ntunga on its Musha concession. It is also the first operating mine in Africa to secure technical assistance funding from the US International Development Finance Corporation to support environmental and social governance initiatives across its operations.

Zcash (ZEC) has staged one of the sharpest recoveries of the quarter, vaulting roughly 160%–170% from late-September levels and briefly trading in the low-$150s on October 2 after spending much of 2024 and early 2025 suppressed in the $16–$20 corridor. There is no single on-chain or protocol-level catalyst that neatly explains the surge. Instead, a confluence of factors has seemingly pulled ZEC into the center of crypto’s attention cycle. First, the privacy theme itself has re-entered the conversation at the ecosystem level. Why Is The Zcash (ZEC) Price Surging? On October 1, the Ethereum Foundation formalized new leadership for its Privacy Cluster—an organizational, standards-driven push to coordinate privacy-preserving research and infrastructure—signaling that major actors in crypto are again foregrounding user confidentiality and data minimization as core priorities. That announcement, while not Zcash-specific, helped set the tone for a broader market repricing of privacy as a necessary pillar of the next cycle. Second, influential market voices amplified ZEC directly. Naval Ravikant, a co-founder of AngelList and a long-time crypto commentator, wrote: “Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin.” The line—short, memetic, and easy to circulate—propelled visibility for ZEC across trading circles and crypto media. As is typical in momentum-driven markets, the endorsement coincided with outsized follow-through as price and attention reinforced each other. Institutional brands also re-surfaced Zcash’s core design. Grayscale highlighted via X that “@Zcash is similar to Bitcoin in its design” but adds “a privacy technology that encrypts transaction information and allows users to shield their assets,” while noting that the Grayscale Zcash Trust was open for private placement to accredited investors. From the builder side, Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz distilled a multi-part thesis that resonated with technically minded traders: privacy has been “slept on” and is “about to make a comeback” amid CBDC and centralized-coin momentum; a “Renaissance of talent” is entering Zcash across the Zashi wallet, intents research, and performance workstreams; and several “large tech improvements” are in flight that could “1,000x performance and scale as well as help with security and finality.” He framed ZEC as both under-researched and mispriced relative to peers, while cautioning that the trade is still risky. “Monero is a $5B coin and somehow Zcash was below $700M when I started talking about it,” he stated, adding, “This is an obvious mispricing, as Zcash has a stronger privacy and scale design but almost no one in crypto is technical enough to look into this. You don’t have to believe even that zec is superior (though it is), you just have to believe that it is extremely undervalued, just look at the coins above it on CMC.” Well-followed traders added fuel. Luke Martin captured the positioning dynamics succinctly: “Some of the smartest people on this app are bullish on ZEC right now… [but] one of the dumbest things you could do on this app for the past 7 years was buy ZEC anytime someone shilled it. Certainly not lacking fuel for a hated rally if it does continue higher.” The current move also echoes longer-running endorsements that many investors had forgotten. In August 2024, Tyler Winklevoss called Zcash “one of the most important and underrated crypto projects in the world,” arguing it “brings privacy and decentralization to money, two fundamental building blocks of a free and open society.” At the time of that post, ZEC traded near $30. Mechanically, the rally exhibits the typical signatures of a narrative rotation. As privacy returned to headline status and ZEC became the cleanest liquid proxy for that theme, order books thinned and intraday ranges expanded. At press time, ZEC traded at $142.84.

The latest analysis from DustyBC Crypto indicates that the XRP price is still struggling to overcome key resistance levels. The price has increased a few times, but each attempt to move higher has faced rejection. For XRP, the situation is not yet showing clear signs of a breakout. Instead, the market outlook remains cautious, and there is still a chance of further downside before the pattern can fully play out. XRP Price Faces Resistance With More Rejections In Market Action According to DustyBC Crypto, XRP recently pushed upward but quickly met a strong resistance zone. After testing that level, the price began rejecting again, showing that sellers are still active in this range. These repeated rejections suggest weakness in the market, and they are not unusual compared to what is happening with Bitcoin and Ethereum. DustyBC Crypto’s analysis indicates the XRP price action has not yet demonstrated the strength necessary to confirm a bullish trend, and the market remains uncertain. DustyBC Crypto notes that this behavior is common when an asset is between support and resistance levels, and it often takes time for a clear direction to form. Because of this, DustyBC Crypto reminded traders that they should not mistake the current price movements for real breakouts. Short-term gains may appear positive on the surface, but until XRP can break through the key resistance zone, rejections are likely to continue. The market remains range-bound, and the technical picture has not undergone significant changes. Bearish Scenario Keeps $2.69–$2.33 Range In Play DustyBC Crypto also warns that the risk of a further drop remains in play. The bearish target range of $2.69 to $2.33 remains valid as long as the market continues to show weakness. XRP could fall further before a pattern completion, keeping traders on alert. According to his analysis, there is still considerable room for the price to decrease. Although XRP can occasionally provide small bullish signals, these moves are not strong enough to confirm a new uptrend. The risk of fake-outs remains high, and traders who chase these moves without patience could get caught in sudden reversals. The $2.69–$2.33 zone is highlighted as the area to watch, as it represents where bearish pressure may next push the market. DustyBC Crypto emphasizes that patience is key, as only after this range plays out will the longer-term pattern become more complete. Until then, the market remains technically uncertain, and DustyBC Crypto advises caution. For now, XRP traders are urged not to rush into bullish trades too early. According to DustyBC Crypto, the best approach is to wait for stronger confirmation before making an entry. He says this way, they could reduce risk and avoid being caught by short-term market fluctuations.

Altcoin markets are bearing witness to a Perp DEX war, as the big guns battle for supremacy Perp DEX protocols just cleared a $1Tn month, and one analyst says the near-term winners are lining up. Perpetual trading on decentralized exchanges just crossed a milestone: more than $1Tn in a single month. The surge highlights how fast on-chain derivatives are gaining ground, with traders now weighing which platforms could take the lead. The Block’s latest data shows that September volumes for perpetuals trading on DEXs surpassed $ 1Tn for the first time, driven by a battle between Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter. Crypto analyst “Unipcs” said today the market is “big enough to accommodate all three” but argued the near-term setup favors Aster (ASTER) and ApeX (APEX). That could mean approximately $500M in new supply each month, a pressure point that traders are already monitoring. Competition is heating up. Lighter’s mainnet has gone live, Aster is still spending aggressively to gain share, and Hyperliquid continues to defend its liquidity and listings. The immediate race will be determined by who can maintain a deep book of orders, offer constant incentives, and maintain stable markets. As more attention is focused on perps in the lead-up to the September $1Tn milestone, the coming months will reveal how much of that attention remains on-chain. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 The post Analyst Predicts Which Crypto Will Win Perp DEX War appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Shiba Inu is back in focus as October begins, with the crypto now trading above $0.000012 after weeks of sideways movement below this price level. Despite the sideways price action, on-chain data is pointing to a change in metrics that could soon translate into a breakout. Crypto analyst Zayn shared fresh on-chain data of Shiba Inu custody on social media platform X, pointing out that the meme coin may be setting up for what traders have nicknamed Uptober. Exchange Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2023 According to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Shiba Inu exchange reserves have fallen to 84.55 trillion tokens, valued at about $998 million based on the current price of SHIB. This is important because this is the lowest amount of SHIB held on crypto exchanges since 2023, right before the crypto market started to transition out of a bear market. Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s data shows that Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves have been locked in a consistent downtrend throughout much of 2025, with large outflows steadily draining tokens from exchange wallets. That trend briefly reversed in September when SHIB’s price attempted a breakout above $0.0000146 but was rejected. The rejection triggered a temporary spike in reserves, likely as short-term investors moved their holdings back onto exchanges to sell into the rally. However, CryptoQuant data shows that the exchange reserve has resumed its outflows in the past few days, which shows that a massive amount of tokens are leaving exchanges and moving into self-custody or staking. Why Does This Matter? The decline in Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves carries weight because it directly impacts the balance between supply and demand. A shrinking supply of tokens on exchanges often translates to reduced selling pressure, since fewer holders are in a position to offload their tokens quickly. At the same time, history has shown that significant drops in exchange reserves often precede phases of strong accumulation. These accumulation waves have acted as a foundation for rallies, and this gives a reason to believe that the current trend could once again set the stage for a meaningful price breakout. Zayn noted that SHIB is currently trading just below a descending resistance trendline with lower highs and higher lows since May 2025. The bullish outlook right now is a break above this resistance of higher lows. SHIB’s track record in October provides an additional layer of confidence for its price outlook. Since its launch, Shiba Inu has never recorded a red October. Even during the 2022 bear market, SHIB managed to close the month in profit. This consistent performance, combined with the current depletion of Shiba Inu exchange reserves, is why analysts are increasingly convinced that SHIB could be on the verge of a significant rally. If the trend repeats, October 2025 may add another chapter to Shiba Inu’s history of Uptober rallies. At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading at $0.00001261, up by 2.4% in the past 24 hours.