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The bull crypto market *is* over, for crypto at least. You should have sold. To be clear, the whole of twitter was saying altseason is here last week. So where is it? What if you’re wrong and the bull market is actually over? And you still didn’t take advantage? Every YouTuber and crypto influencer is telling us to HODL. No way they could all be wrong, right? (Source: TradingView) Just one week after the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note on Tuesday. He admitted the US labor market is softening, inflation is still running hot, and policymakers face what he called “two-way risk.” “There is no risk-free path forward,” Powell said, leaving October’s policy decision wide open. Futures now price in a 92% chance of another cut in October, up from 89.8% before Powell spoke, with traders betting on three total cuts by year-end. But will all of this be enough for the crypto markets if we enter another recession? DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Is The Bull Crypto Market Dead? Why Stocks Rally While Crypto Cracks Wall Street has treated easing talk as an all-clear. The S&P 500 hit fresh highs this week, with tech leading the charge. But crypto markets told a different story: on Sept. 22, nearly $1.7 billion in positions were liquidated in a single day, the largest wipeout since Dec. 2024, according to Coinglass. That divergence highlights how risk assets aren’t moving in lockstep. Equities have fundamentals like earnings, AI-driven productivity, corporate buybacks. But crypto runs on liquidity, leverage, and sentiment. (Source: CoinGlass) Some traders on X and Reddit argue the recent volatility is just a prelude to a mania phase. Every past cycle, they note, ended in parabolic price action and a final FOMO-driven run before the crash. Macro tailwinds are building for such a move: M2 money supply is climbing again, per FRED data, after two years of contraction. ETF inflows remain steady. Glassnode shows U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $890M in net inflows last week alone. Global policy is shifting: U.S. 401(k) reforms and Gulf sovereign funds exploring crypto could unlock trillions in sidelined capital. With Bitcoin hovering near $112,500 support, bears point to downside levels at $100K for BTC, $3,400 for ETH, and $160 for SOL as the next tests. The real inflection point arrives with Thursday’s US data dump, including: GDP, jobless claims, and Treasury auctions. If numbers confirm a slowing economy, rate cuts could accelerate and liquidity could flood back into risk assets. Either way, Powell is right about one thing. There is no risk-free path forward. EXPLORE: Black Swan Alert: What To Expect From Trump UN Speech? Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The bull crypto market *is* over, for crypto at least. You should have sold. To be clear, the whole of twitter was saying altseason is here and it didn’t come With Bitcoin hovering near $112,500 support, bears point to downside levels at $100K for BTC, $3,400 for ETH, and $160 for SOL as the next tests. The post As Bull Crypto Market Heads South: What’s Next For Bitcoin in 2025? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stock Rally Takes a Breath Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History Says Asian stock markets took a pause on Thursday after their recent surge, as investors waited for new reasons to buy. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen faced significant selling pressure, especially against the euro and Swiss franc. The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) slipped by 0.1%, coming after a very strong period of rallying over 5% this month and 9% this quarter. Japan's Nikkei index was up slightly by 0.2%, having jumped 7% this month and 13% this quarter. Chinese stocks were the best performers: the CSI300 index rose by 0.7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced by 0.2%. Chinese technology stocks are particularly strong, marking their eighth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak on record driven by excitement over Artificial Intelligence (AI). Traders have been heavily buying shares of companies like Nvidia and Alibaba as these firms invest billions into AI, a theme that has fueled a major stock market rise in both the U.S. and China this year. That rally now faces a test with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, as traders will look for clues from this key inflation data to predict the future direction of US interest rates. SNB Leaves Rate Unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 0%. It also maintained the small 0.25% discount on large bank deposits and confirmed that it is ready to step into the foreign currency markets if necessary. Inflation in Switzerland remains very low, only slightly increasing to 0.2% in August (up from -0.1% in May), mainly due to higher prices for tourism and imported goods. The SNB expects inflation to stay low for the next few years: 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027, assuming the interest rate stays at 0%. Global economic growth slowed down early in 2025 due to U.S. trade tariffs and general uncertainty, and the SNB anticipates slow growth ahead. In Switzerland, economic growth softened to 0.5% in the second quarter, following a strong first quarter that was boosted by pharmaceutical exports. The impact of higher US tariffs is expected to hurt Swiss exports and business investment, particularly for machinery and watchmakers, although the service sector is expected to remain strong. The SNB forecasts the overall economy to grow by 1–1.5% in 2025, slowing down to just under 1% in 2026, and expects the unemployment rate to rise further. European Session European stock markets fell slightly on Thursday. Early losses were driven mainly by healthcare and industrial company shares. Investors are now focusing on speeches from several U.S. Federal Reserve officials and upcoming economic data, hoping to get a clearer idea of the Fed's future interest rate plans. The main pan-European stock index, the STOXX 600, dropped by 0.5%. Most national stock markets also started lower, with Germany's main index and the UK's FTSE 100 both down 0.4%. Healthcare stocks were down 1.1%. The decline was led by German medical technology company Siemens Healthineers, whose shares slid 6%. This followed an announcement by the U.S. Commerce Department that it is opening new national security investigations into the import of various products, including medical items and industrial machinery. The UK's Smith+Nephew also saw its shares fall by 1.1%. Other sectors lagging the market included construction materials and industrial goods and services. However, there was a bright spot: Swedish fashion retailer H&M saw its stock jump 9.4% after reporting a third-quarter profit that was significantly higher than analysts had expected. On the FX front, the Chinese yuan strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday. This was due to two main factors: traders were betting the US dollar would continue to weaken following the Federal Reserve's decision to resume cutting interest rates, and the Chinese stock market was performing well. By early morning, the yuan was up 0.11% against the dollar. Before the market opened, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, set a daily reference rate for the yuan that was stronger than analysts had predicted. Meanwhile, the US dollar was stable in Asian trading after increasing overnight, with the dollar index near a three-week high. The dollar index is now close to achieving a gain for the entire month. The euro and the British pound remained mostly unchanged after both had dropped by 0.6% against the dollar on Wednesday. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped slightly on Thursday, pulling back from the seven-week high they hit in the previous session. This happened as some investors sold their holdings to take profits after US stocks closed lower. The anticipation of a slowdown in demand during the winter months, along with the expected return of oil supplies from Iraq's Kurdish region, also contributed to the price decline. Specifically, Brent crude futures fell by 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $68.82 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $64.45 a barrel. Gold prices held steady on Thursday before a rally after the European open. A slightly weaker US dollar provided a bit of support for the price of gold. Investors are now looking forward to the release of important US economic data, hoping it will offer more clues about the Federal Reserve's future interest rate plans. The price of spot gold rose to $3,760.22 per ounce. Gold, which is considered a safe investment and usually performs well when interest rates are low, reached a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday. Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be a quiet one with attention turning to the US session. Around seven Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later in the day and share more insights on monetary policy. From a data perspective, the US session brings a reading of US Q2 GDP data and weekly jobless claims numbers ahead of tomorrow's PCE release. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index rallied yesterday away from support before a pullback early this morning. Price is now back at support and the confluence area between 9241 and 9223. The last four-hour candle close left a significant downside wicjk which shows that bullish interest still remains in play. For further downside to occur here, the FTSE would need a four-hour candle close below the 200-day MA 9223 which could open up a run toward the 9180 support and potentially lower. On the upside, the 9260 handle will be the first area of interest before the 9280 and 9320 handles come into focus. FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 25. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The crypto market is back in deep red today as Bitcoin BTC ▼-0.80% once again failed to reclaim the crucial $113,500 resistance. After briefly attempting a bounce, BTC has been pushed lower and is now hovering near the weekly lows. Market bears are calling for a potential dip toward $107,000, right in line with the “max pain” zone ahead of a massive $17.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry in just two days. Historically, Bitcoin tends to move toward this level during large expirations, suggesting a possible final flush before a reversal. (Source: Coinglass) Ethereum ETH ▼-3.38% has also broken below the $4,000 mark, adding to the bearish pressure across altcoins. Most major tokens are retracing, with liquidity clustering above current levels. Analysts warn that Bitcoin looks “heavy” but also note that a sudden reversal could trigger a short squeeze. If BTC climbs to $116,000, more than $2.7 billion in short positions could be liquidated in a sharp rally. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.23T24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2025 Next Crypto To Explode: Could STBL Or RWA Tokens Defy The Market? While the broader market struggles, some altcoins are showing resilience. STBL has staged an impressive recovery after dipping to $0.45, now trading near $0.50. The move follows a bullish update from @stbl_official, confirming that starting in Q4, 100% of minting fees will be directed toward STBL buybacks. The token recently hit an all-time high of $0.61, and the buyback program could support further upside momentum. Read The Full Article Here 1 hour ago DRIFT Protocol Plays Catch Up on Perp Dex SZN: Is DRIFT Next 1000X Crypto in 2025? By Fatima Binance founder CZ has truly kicked off the ‘Perp DEX Szn’ following the huge ongoing success of ASTER and his X post from yesterday, which has garnered attention for others in the space. Traders are left wondering whether ASTER, DRIFT, HYPE, or another perp dex platform will be the next 1000x crypto as we head into Q4. ASTER continues to dominate mindshare right now, as it holds steady above $2 following this morning’s market-wide dump that briefly saw ETH drop below $4,000. (SOURCE: DefiLlama) Read The Full Article Here 3 hours ago Ethereum Whales Accumulate Over $1B ETH Despite Market Dip By Fatima Despite Ethereum’s pullback, whales continue to accumulate heavily. In just 14 hours, 10 wallets absorbed 210,452 ETH ($862.8M) from exchanges and OTC desks like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, and FalconX. Updated flows show 11 wallets now holding 295,861 ETH ($1.19B) acquired today alone. ETH ▼-3.38% trades slightly above $4,000, leaving traders divided: is this the start of a deeper correction or the final dip before a September reversal? With whale accumulation intensifying, market watchers are eyeing whether these massive inflows signal confidence in Ethereum’s long-term trajectory. The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, September 25 – Another Crypto Market Crash? Bitcoin Price Can’t Break $113K And ETH Loses $4K: Next Crypto To Explode? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Therefore, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The latest labor market data and the changed Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, but the bears are finding reasons to counterattack. For the trend to switch to "bearish," the pair needs to fall to the 1.1637–1.1645 support zone. On Wednesday, the news background was virtually absent. However, the bears reinterpreted Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday evening and concluded that the FOMC Chair could have voiced more "dovish" points. Traders seem to have expected the Fed to focus more heavily on U.S. labor market weakness, which forces easing at a fairly high pace. However, Powell emphasized the importance of the regulator's dual mandate. Inflation also remains a concern for FOMC members and prevents rate cuts at every meeting or larger than 0.25% at once. In my view, this factor is too weak to sustain the bears, and yesterday's decline in the pair was more than enough to price it in. However, today an important U.S. GDP report for Q2 will be released, which may trigger new bearish attacks. Recall that the second estimate was raised to 3.3% q/q, and the final estimate may be even higher. The U.S. economy is expanding, but many economists remain skeptical. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal corridor, allowing traders to expect further growth. A rebound from the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1854 worked in favor of the U.S. dollar and led to some decline toward 1.1680. A rebound from 1.1680 would allow traders to count on renewed growth. No looming divergences are currently observed on any indicators. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 4,788 long positions and opened 3,130 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 253,000, compared with 135,000 short positions. The gap is essentially twofold. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above. They reflect strong position building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to rise, while interest in the dollar declines. For 32 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and building long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could create long-term and structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are showing decline. News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone: Eurozone – Germany Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC).U.S. – Change in durable goods orders (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Change in GDP for Q2 (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Change in initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Existing home sales (14:00 UTC).On September 24, the economic calendar contains five entries, two of which can be considered important. The influence of the news background on market sentiment will be present on Thursday in the second half of the day. EUR/USD forecast and trading tips: Sales of the pair were possible after closing below the 1.1789–1.1802 support zone on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1695. Today, these trades can be kept open, setting Stop Loss at breakeven. Purchases will be possible today on a rebound from 1.1695 or after closing above the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, working through the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone favored the pound and led to some growth toward 1.3482. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587. The wave situation has turned "bearish." This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, but the last downward wave easily broke the previous low. The news background was mostly neutral for the pound last week, but Thursday and Friday spoiled everything. However, the negative background has already been priced in, so what will the bears rely on for continued pressure? For the pound, Wednesday did not look threatening, but Andrew Bailey's speech once again prevented it from starting a recovery. Recall that last week, problems with forming next year's budget sparked a wave of criticism of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. The markets have repeatedly criticized Reeves for her actions or inability to resolve financial issues. This week, the pound was recovering for two days until the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that monetary easing could continue despite high inflation. Specifically, Bailey said inflation may keep slowing, which would allow the British regulator to continue monetary easing. In my view, the Bank of England governor did not give the market hope for another rate cut in 2025, but traders drew exactly that conclusion. The pound came under pressure again. In recent days, the stars have aligned in favor of the dollar, but I still believe the overall news background for it remains extremely unfavorable. On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator and following the Bank of England and Fed meetings. The decline is continuing toward the support zone of 1.3378–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and some growth in the pair. A consolidation below this zone would support continued decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3118. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became sharply more "bullish" in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 5,947, while the number of short positions decreased by 21,078. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 80,000 versus 87,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the balance in their favor. In my opinion, the pound still faces downside prospects. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was dreadful, but it is slowly improving. Trade tensions are easing, major agreements are being signed, and the U.S. economy will recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year have started to put serious pressure on the dollar, with the U.S. labor market weakening and unemployment rising. Thus, I still do not see grounds for a "bearish" trend. News calendar for the U.S. and the UK: U.S. – Change in durable goods orders (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Change in GDP for Q2 (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Change in initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).U.S. – Existing home sales (14:00 UTC).On September 25, the economic calendar includes four events, two of which are of major importance. The impact of the news background on market sentiment could be quite strong in the second half of the day. GBP/USD forecast and trading tips: Sales of the pair were possible after closing below 1.3482 on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3416–1.3425 zone. This target was achieved. New sales are possible on a rebound from 1.3482 or after closing below 1.3416–1.3425. Purchases could be considered on a rebound from the 1.3416–1.3425 zone with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3587. The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, September 25, 2025, followed by a press conference from Chairman Martin Schlegel. It is expected that the central bank will once again keep the key rate at 0.0%, marking a second consecutive meeting without changes after six straight cuts since March of last year. Market expectations do not point to further cuts this year, while any potential moves next year remain uncertain. Investors and traders should closely monitor Schlegel's remarks for signals that could indicate a review of the negative rate policy. This decision will have a significant impact on the Swiss franc's exchange rate and provide momentum for USD/CHF movement. Domestic inflation in Switzerland remains below the SNB's target, and the franc's recent strengthening may once again push the bank to consider resuming negative rates. This rules out expectations of a "hawkish" tightening and suggests that the Swiss franc is unlikely to strengthen. Amid the key risks tied to the SNB's decision, USD/CHF is fluctuating in a narrow range around the 0.7940 support level, where the 9-day EMA is located, against the backdrop of moderate U.S. dollar weakness. A "dovish" scenario would allow the pair to continue rebounding from the 0.7900 level – the weekly low reached the day before – and break above this week's high near 0.7975. In this case, the bulls would target the psychological level of 0.8000. Conversely, an unexpected "hawkish" tone would trigger a sharp sell-off and bring quotes back to the 0.7900 level. A subsequent decline would be seen by the bears as a signal for further selling, targeting intermediate support near 0.7855 and ultimately a drop to 0.7830 — the lowest level since September 2011, recorded last week. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Looking at how safe havens have performed so far this year, one thing is clear: fear is driving markets. With Donald Trump as US President, tariffs were swiftly rolled out, and businesses, even nations, had to shield themselves from uncertainty. This flight to safety has funneled trillions of dollars into bonds, high-quality equities, crypto, and gold. BTC USD rocketed to new all-time highs in August, breaking $124,500, but gold has truly stolen the show with its relentless climb. In 2025, gold prices have trended strictly upward, a pattern that’s hard to miss. According to CME data, the yellow metal is up nearly +45% over the past ten months, jumping from about $2,640 in late 2024 and peaking at $3,824 earlier this week. This spike was hardly surprising: The yellow metal remains a premier safe haven preferred by central banks. (Source: MGC, TradingView) The gold buying frenzy has inflated its total market capitalization by nearly $4T in just the past few months. At that blistering pace, it has absorbed value equivalent to the entire crypto market cap, and nearly 2X the Bitcoin market cap. This rotation into hard assets was a glaring signal of investor caution. Yet analysts haven’t written off Bitcoin: despite recent pullbacks, it’s holding steady above $110,000, rebounding from the sharp dip on September 22. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto – Here’s 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x This Year Is gold a $4T Liquidity Black Hole? At press time, gold is changing hands at around $3,765, retreating from its all-time high of $3,824 on September 23. Notably, even as global M2 liquidity swelled past $114.1T in recent days, crypto prices have been stagnant, even falling. Instead, gold has been the biggest beneficiary. The gold market cap now exceeds $25.2T, up from $22T in early June. That gap reflects over $3.5T poured into the metal in mere weeks. Tom Lee of Fundstrat previously predicted BTC USD to hit $250,000 by the end of 2025, fueled largely by institutional inflows. Similarly, analysts at VanEck and Standard Chartered see the bull cycle topping out around that level. Institutions clearly aren’t sitting idle. Despite the cooldown in the past few days, they’ve snapped up over $3B in spot Bitcoin ETF shares this month alone. (Source: SosoValue) DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 Gold A $4T Liquidity Sponge, BTC USD To $250,000? Global M2 money supply is rapidly expanding Gold is emerging as a choice asset Gold surges to all-time highs this week Will BTC USD break $125,000 before doubling to over $250,000? The post Gold Is A $4T Liquidity Sponge: BTC USD Fair Value At $250,000 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.3383 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.3405 – a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may start moving downward toward 1.3405 – a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). From this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.3414 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.1706 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1720 – the 50% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.1688 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1706 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

After a strong price performance over the past month, driven by growing interest in the Avalanche ecosystem, AVAX now faces a key resistance area that could delay its long-awaited rally. Institutional Momentum Fuels Avalanche Price On Wednesday, Avalanche continued its recovery from the start-of-week pullback and is currently retesting the $34 area as support. The cryptocurrency recently fell to the $29 level, but quickly bounced toward a seven-month high of $36.1 on Tuesday, fueled by institutional interest in the ecosystem. AgriFORCE Growing Systems recently announced its rebrand to a crypto treasury company under the name AVAX One, marking the first Nasdaq-listed entity focused on Avalanche. The company, supported by Hivemind Capital and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, aims to raise $550 million to accumulate the cryptocurrency. Notably, the Avalanche Foundation, the nonprofit behind the project, also revealed it was seeking to raise $1 billion to establish two US-based crypto treasury vehicles. Last week, South Korean crypto custodian BDACS launched KRW1, the country’s first Korean won–pegged stablecoin, on Avalanche. Previously, Ava Labs secured a strategic partnership with Toyota Blockchain Lab to build a blockchain-based system, the Mobility Open Network (MON), designed to pave the road for new emerging use cases such as robotaxi fleets. AVAX Monthly Close Holds Rally’s Key Analyst Rekt Capital noted that the cryptocurrency has had a strong three-month rally within its Macro Wedge pattern but also cautioned that there’s “further work to be done” for a bullish trend continuation. The cryptocurrency has seen a 43% increase in the monthly timeframe, turning the $30 level into support two weeks ago. Since then, the AVAX price has attempted to reclaim the $35 resistance twice, but failed to sustain the breakout. Avalanche has been trading inside a Macro wedge pattern since the start of 2024, with the price steadily hovering between the formation’s upper and lower boundaries. The recent rally has sent the price toward the pattern’s resistance zone, with the breakout level sitting around the $38.40 mark. According to the analysis, AVAX’s next crucial step is to close September above the Macro Downtrend and have a post-breakout retest of this level as support. A monthly close above this area would “open the path toward repeating bullish history similar to mid-2021 and early 2024.” Failing to secure a monthly close above the $38.40 area could see Avalanche up for a retest of the $29-$30 support, further risking a drop toward the monthly opening of $23.6. To target the Macro Wedge resistance, the cryptocurrency still must reclaim the $35-$36 zone, where the next major sell wall is located. Despite the warning, the analyst detailed that a retest of the support region could “extend base-building further into Q4, ultimately enabling a more sustainable breakout attempt later.” As of this writing, AVAX is trading at $33.75, a 1% decline in the daily timeframe.

Gold prices have declined but remain close to all-time highs as traders—encouraged by upbeat US economic data and noting diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials this week—have reassessed their expectations for future monetary policy. Gold slipped to nearly $3,719 per ounce, down $70 from the record set on Tuesday. Prices dropped on Wednesday after data showed US new home sales in August unexpectedly rose to their fastest pace since early 2022, easing some concerns about a slowdown in the world's largest economy. The dollar climbed to its highest level in almost two weeks, making gold more expensive for most buyers. Traders also weighed comments from US officials. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced disappointment that Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not lay out a clear plan for rate cuts. Earlier in the week, the Fed Chair reiterated the need for caution amid signs of labor market weakness and the risk of rising inflation. Rate cuts typically support precious metals, which do not yield interest. Furthermore, the dynamics of supply and demand remain critical factors. Reduced gold production in some regions and increased demand from central banks—especially in developing markets—have put upward pressure on prices. Central banks are using gold to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. This trend is likely to persist in the long term, supporting fundamental demand for gold. It's no surprise that gold and silver have become some of the most popular commodities this year, thanks to a range of favorable factors—including last week's Fed rate cut and robust demand from central banks. On Tuesday, prices jumped 1.2%, reaching a peak of $3,791.10 per ounce, following market rumors about China planning to become a custodian for foreign sovereign reserves in precious metals. Bullion demand has also been strong from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whose inflows reached a three-year high last Friday. As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $3,756. This would open the way to $3,802, above which it will be quite difficult to advance. The furthest target is in the $3,849 area. In the event of a gold decline, bears will aim to seize control at $3,705. If successful, breaking below this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push gold toward a low of $3,658, with the prospect of a slide to $3,600. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

If the White House interferes with the Federal Reserve, why shouldn't the central bank express its view about financial markets? Scott Bessent wonders why the Fed Chair hasn't signaled future rate cuts—which, according to the Treasury Secretary, should drop by 100–150 bps by the end of 2025. Still, Jerome Powell's statement that stocks are "fairly highly valued" made a much bigger impression on investors. The S&P 500 posted three dozen record highs in 2025, rising 35% off its April lows and adding $16 trillion in market cap. Greed and FOMO were so intense that the broad index went 107 sessions without a single drop of 2% or more in a day—the longest winning streak since July 2024. S&P 500's Streaks Without a 2%+ Daily Drop Powell's remark about stock valuations made investors pause. Indeed, according to Bank of America, 19 of 20 indicators flag the S&P 500 as overbought—and four of those are at all-time highs. The 12-month forward P/E ratio for the index sits at 22.9, a level exceeded just twice in the last quarter-century—during the dot-com crisis and the pandemic. Nevertheless, Bank of America concludes that even high fundamental valuations for the S&P 500 are justified. Lower leverage, less earnings volatility, increased efficiency, and more stable margins are cited as the new reality. A P/E of 22.9 may be the new "normal"—and anything lower could, in fact, be undervalued. S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio Dynamics Tech giants are valued even higher and are now leading the S&P 500 correction. Not long ago, investors cheered deals like Oracle with OpenAI and NVIDIA with OpenAI. Now, news of Alibaba's $53 billion commitment to AI has largely gone unnoticed. There are growing doubts about the future of artificial intelligence, with some arguing that most new tech boosts economic efficiency—but that doesn't appear to be happening here. It's quite likely that we're seeing a "sell the news" phase in the S&P 500 after rallying on "buy the rumor." According to EPFR Global and Bank of America, asset managers poured $58 billion into US equities during the week ending September 17—the biggest inflow of the year. Powell's comments about high equity valuations and a reassessment of Fed rate expectations triggered the pullback. Technically, the S&P 500 daily chart shows a correction within the broader uptrend. A rebound from fair value at 6,610 and the pivot area near 5,570 will be a buy signal if a breakout bar closes above key resistance. From there, Linda Raschke's Holy Grail strategy could be employed going forward. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn. How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stocks and gold first, as these are considered high-liquidity assets with a proven track record. In contrast, cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, often find themselves at the end of the liquidity pipeline. They typically see price increases only when risk appetite broadens significantly among investors. Additionally, liquidity remains tight in the crypto space, despite the Fed’s recent actions. While the central bank cut rates in September, other variables are restricting the flow of capital into cryptocurrencies. Quantitative tightening (QT) is still being implemented, with the Fed actively reducing its balance sheet. Moreover, the US Treasury is absorbing liquidity through the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and money market funds are currently holding over $7.7 trillion in cash that remains largely idle. This lack of liquidity means that any spillover effect into the crypto market will be limited, resulting in a slower rotation of capital into digital assets. Cyclical Trends Suggest Potential Rebound The macroeconomic patterns observed in September 2024 are also reemerging. Last year, following a rate cut, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins enjoyed significant gains. However, this was followed by a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 11% and Ethereum experiencing an even steeper fall. In a similar vein, this September has seen Bitcoin hover around $112,000 after briefly touching $118,000, while Ethereum has slipped from $4,600 to approximately $4.1,00. This cyclical pattern suggests that crypto may be primed for a rebound, but only after a period of consolidation and confirmation. Moreover, the impending expiry of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is adding another layer of volatility to the market. Stablecoin Movement And Institutional Inflows Another factor impacting the market is the supply and velocity of stablecoins. While the total supply of stablecoins has surged from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in September—an all-time high—the velocity of these assets is not keeping pace. The analysts have identified that much of this capital remains inactive, either sitting idle, bridged, or utilized off-exchange. Until stablecoin velocity increases, the price impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to remain subdued. Looking ahead, historical trends suggest that although crypto may be lagging in the short term, they often follow traditional assets with significant gains once the market stabilizes. In the aftermath of all-time highs in equity markets, Bitcoin has previously averaged a 12% increase within 30 days and a remarkable 35% over 90 days. Notably, following the Nasdaq’s all-time highs, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 46% in the same 90-day timeframe. For crypto markets to regain their momentum, active movement of stablecoins is essential, along with a cooling off of derivatives trading and substantial purchases from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Yesterday, Bitcoin stopped just shy of the $114,000 mark, and during today's Asian trading, it quickly dropped back to around $111,500. Apparently, this level is where it's currently most comfortable trading. Ethereum fell below $4,000, triggering $141 million in long liquidations. This sharp market move came as a surprise to many traders who had bet on continued growth for the second-largest cryptocurrency. The break below the psychologically important $4,000 mark triggered a chain reaction—exchanges began to close leveraged positions, which further intensified the downtrend automatically. Several factors contributed to this crash. First, general uncertainty in global financial markets is weighing on all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The lack of clear direction from central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions are creating an environment of caution, prompting investors to trim positions in volatile instruments. Second, the crypto market itself is undergoing a consolidation phase after strong gains. Third, it's important to remember the speculative nature of many crypto trades. Short-term investments based on leverage leave the market particularly vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment. The break of $4,000 in Ethereum served as a catalyst that triggered a mass exit and deepened the decline. For an intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I'll continue to focus on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum as opportunities to play a medium-term bullish trend, which remains intact. For short-term trading, see the strategies and entries outlined below. BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today on a move down to around $112,100, targeting a rise to $113,100. Near $113,100, I'll exit the long and immediately look to sell on the pullback. Before entering a breakout buy, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Scenario 2: It's also possible to buy from the lower boundary at $111,400 if there is no market reaction to a break below that level, aiming for moves up to $112,100 and $113,100. Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today if the price drops to $111,400, targeting a decline to $110,300. Around $110,300, I'll exit shorts and look to buy quickly on the rebound. Before a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. Scenario 2: You can also sell from the upper boundary at $112,100 if there is no momentum follow-through, targeting $111,400 and $110,300 on the way down. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today on a dip to around $4,039, targeting a move up to $4,116. Near $4,116, I'll exit the long and immediately switch to selling on the pullback. Before a breakout buy, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Scenario 2: Buying is also considered from the lower bound at $3,886 if there's no negative reaction to a break, targeting climbs back to $4,039 and $4,116. Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at an entry around $3,986 with a target of $3,912. Around $3,912, I'll exit shorts and look to buy quickly on the rebound. Before breakout shorting, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. Scenario 2: Selling is also legit from the upper boundary at $4,039 if there is no momentum follow-through, targeting $3,986 and $3,912 on any subsequent move down. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3467 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below zero, limiting the pair's downside potential. Long positions on the rebound from 1.3434 (Scenario #2) returned about 15 pips of profit. News that US new home sales came in much higher than economists had forecast strengthened the dollar and led to a decline in the British pound. Investors immediately reconsidered their positions, anticipating good economic growth momentum. The prospect of keeping rates higher for longer returned appeal to the US dollar. Today, the Confederation of British Industry will release UK retail sales figures. This data will serve as an important barometer for assessing consumer strength and the overall condition of the UK economy. Traders will be closely watching to see whether the numbers indicate steady growth or signal a slowdown. These figures are especially relevant in light of growing concerns about inflation and its effect on consumers' purchasing power. If the numbers come in weaker than expected, this could increase pressure on the Bank of England. Conversely, strong retail sales may indicate that consumers, despite inflation, continue to support the economy. The Confederation of British Industry is a respected source of economic information, and its data often has a significant market impact. For this reason, investors, traders, and businesses will closely monitor today's release to adjust their strategies and forecasts. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point near 1.3464 (indicated by the green line on the chart) with a target move to 1.3494 (indicated by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3494, I plan to exit those buys and immediately switch to sells on a reversal (targeting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). A strong rally in the pound today is unlikely unless accompanied by solid data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from there. Scenario #2: I will also look to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3441 price with the MACD in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and prompt a reversal upward. Look for the price to move to 1.3464 and 1.3494. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3441 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The main target for sellers will be 1.3407, where I plan to close shorts and then immediately switch to buys on a reversal (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound). Sellers can step in at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just start to move down from there. Scenario #2: I will also look to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3464 price with the MACD in overbought territory. This will cap the upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. Expect a move towards 1.3441 and 1.3407. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.49 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved sharply above zero, limiting the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level allowed for selling according to Scenario #2, but it ended with a stop-out as the pair failed to drop as expected. The sharp jump in US new home sales in August strengthened the dollar and sent the Japanese yen lower. This unexpected surge in real estate activity signaled the resilience of the US economy, which immediately impacted investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. The jump in sales exceeded analyst forecasts, reinforcing the belief that the Fed may continue with a tight monetary stance, maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation. This outlook made the dollar a more attractive asset for investors seeking higher yields. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 148.95 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 149.60 (represented by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.60, I will exit longs and open new sell positions on a reversal (for a 30–35 pip move downward). It's best to return to buying during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from that level. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.60 with MACD in oversold territory. This will limit the downside and prompt an upward reversal. You can expect a move to the 148.95 and 149.60 levels. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a move below 148.60 (red line on the chart), which should spark a quick decline. The main target for sellers will be 148.05, where I plan to close shorts and immediately switch to longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound from this level). It's best to sell from as high a level as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall from there. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.95 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap upside potential and spark a reversal downward. Look for movement to the 148.60 and 148.05 levels. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1755 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below zero, which limited the pair's further downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the entire downward move. Long positions on the rebound from 1.1731 yielded about 10 pips in profit. The release of strong new home sales data in the US triggered a rise in the dollar and a decline in the euro. The optimistic figures prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. Today, we'll see the preliminary German GfK Consumer Sentiment Index, private sector lending figures in the eurozone, and M3 money supply growth. The German GfK Confidence Index serves as a key barometer for consumer sentiment and expenditures, which in turn are critical drivers of economic growth. The volume of private sector lending in the eurozone indicates how available credit is for businesses and households. Growth in lending can signal rising economic activity and make the region more attractive to investors. The dynamics of the M3 money supply, which encompasses cash in circulation, deposits, and other liquid assets, can offer insights into the current level of inflation and the ECB's monetary policy stance. In these turbulent economic times, such data will be especially valuable for traders. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1754 area (indicated by the green line on the chart), with an upside target of 1.1789. At 1.1789, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro on a reversal, targeting a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Only consider betting on euro growth after strong economic data is released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from that level. Scenario 2: I'll also look to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1735 price while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will cap the downside potential and send the market into a reversal to the upside. Look for the pair to move towards 1.1754 and 1.1789. Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1735 (indicated by the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1708, where I'll exit and immediately buy for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to return today if the data disappoints. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to decline from that level. Scenario 2: I'll also look to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1754 price with the MACD in overbought territory. This will cap the upside and send the market into a reversal to the downside. Expect a move towards 1.1735 and 1.1708. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Thursday, September 25, 2025] Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bearish zone, but the position of EMA(50) & EMA(200) still in a Golden Cross configuration confirms the strengthening bias for XPD/USD. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1271.29 2. Resistance. 1 : 1242.22 3. Pivot : 1225.82 4. Support. 1 : 1196.75 5. Support. 2 : 1180.35 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If XPD/USD breaks out and closes above 1,225.82, it has the potential to continue strengthening up to 1,242.22. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1,242.22 is breached and closes above, Palladium has the potential to test the next resistance level at 1,271.29. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Palladium weakens further and breaks and closes below 1,180.35. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 1220.08 EMA(200): 1204.44 RSI(14) : 42.25 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - Final GDP q/q - 19:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB US - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Durable Goods Orders m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Final GDP Price Index q/q - 19:30 WIB US - Goods Trade Balance - 19:30 WIB US - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Existing Home Sales - 21:00 WIB US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, September 25, 2025] Although both EMAs have not yet formed a Death Cross, but the RSI is in the Neutral-Bearish zone, which may bring the Nasdaq 100 index down to its nearest support level today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 24801.4 2. Resistance. 1 : 24652.3 3. Pivot : 24518.9 4. Support. 1 : 24369.8 5. Support. 2 : 24236.4 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If #NDX breaks down and closes below 24,518.9, it is likely to continue its decline down to 24,369.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 24,369.8 is breached and closes below, it has the potential to further weaken down to 24,236.4. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is contained if the price strengthens and successfully breaks and closes above 24,801.4. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 24556.0 EMA(200): 24551.9 RSI(14) : 44.56 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - Final GDP q/q - 19:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB US - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Durable Goods Orders m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Final GDP Price Index q/q - 19:30 WIB US - Goods Trade Balance - 19:30 WIB US - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m - 19:30 WIB US - Existing Home Sales - 21:00 WIB US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US dollar continued its rise against a range of risk assets, indicating sustained demand and trader concerns about future Federal Reserve policy. Strong data on US new home sales contributed to further dollar strength. Traders revised their forecasts on future Fed policy, expecting the central bank to keep rates higher for longer than previously thought. This increased the dollar's appeal as a more profitable and reliable asset. Meanwhile, the impact was strongly felt on European markets. The euro noticeably declined against the dollar, raising concerns among European exporters. A stronger dollar makes European goods more expensive for American consumers, potentially reducing export volumes and putting pressure on the eurozone's economic growth. Today, key reports are scheduled for release: the German GfK Consumer Climate Index, eurozone private sector lending, and M3 money supply growth. These figures will be used to assess the current state of the eurozone economy and to forecast its future development. The German GfK consumer confidence index is a key indicator of consumer sentiment and spending, which in turn drives economic growth. Private sector lending reflects the availability of credit for businesses and households, while M3 money supply (which includes cash in circulation, deposits, and other liquid assets) can provide insights into current inflation trends and ECB monetary policy. The publication of these numbers is expected to spark increased volatility in the financial markets. For the UK and the pound, retail sales data from the Confederation of British Industry is due today. This report will serve as an indicator for assessing consumer demand and the overall health of the UK economy. Experts closely examine such figures to determine whether they indicate stable economic growth or a slowdown. If the numbers come in below expectations, this may intensify pressure on the Bank of England regarding monetary policy and further weigh on the pound. If the data matches economists' forecasts, it's best to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly beats or misses forecasts, a Momentum strategy is preferred. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuying above 1.1762 could push the euro up to the 1.1790 and 1.1818 areas Selling below 1.1735 could lead to a drop in the euro to the 1.1700 and 1.1664 zones GBP/USDBuying above 1.3467 could send the pound up to 1.3500 and 1.3535; Selling below 1.3430 could trigger a decline to 1.3380 and 1.3340; USD/JPYBuying above 148.95 could push the dollar up to 149.30 and 149.65; Selling below 148.55 could prompt a fall in the dollar to 148.30 and 147.95; Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDLook for short trades after a failed breakout above 1.1759, on a return below this level; Look for long trades after a failed breakout below 1.1733, on a return above this level; GBP/USDLook for short trades after a failed breakout above 1.3469, on a return below this level; Look for long trades after a failed breakout below 1.3442, on a return above this level; AUD/USDLook for short trades after a failed breakout above 0.6608, on a return below this level; Look for long trades after a failed breakout below 0.6585, on a return above this level; USD/CADLook for short trades after a failed breakout above 1.3903, on a return below this level; Look for long trades after a failed breakout below 1.3878, on a return above this level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Why is crypto down today? Why did the BTC USD price slide below 112K, and Ethereum break under 4K? The entire crypto market shed more than $162 billion in value overnight, with total market cap now at $3.81 trillion. Liquidations have surged to over $400 million overnight, with the biggest loss of $29 million in ETH ▼-3.38% long. (source – Coinglass Liquidation Data) The current situation could be a textbook flush as overleveraged traders are wiped out in a classic shakeout. It could be the end, but it could be just another chapter in crypto’s volatile cycles. But as we predicted yesterday, the current slump is not over. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$485.90B24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 BTC USD Price Dips: Why Is Crypto Down Today Amid ETF Outflows and Fed Signals? One major reason why crypto is down today is the sudden reversal in ETF flows. According to multiple on-chain analysts, outflows from BTC ▼-0.80% and ETH ▼-3.38% ETFs totaled around $244 million are effectively ending a multi-week inflow streak. This coincides with the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut which bring rates to 4.00%. (source – ETF Flows, Coinglass) While many expected relief, Powell’s tone on inflation risks has kept institutions cautious. That stronger dollar is now weighing on risk appetite, pushing BTC USD price down to $111,758 and ETH to $4,020 when this article was written. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.23T24h7d30d1yAll time From a technical standpoint, this reminds the market of the post-rate-cut dip around mid-last year when BTC dropped 11% in a week. Support at 115K didn’t hold, and ETH losing the 4.2K mark was keeping altcoins under pressure. Still, this is a correction. Funding rates, notably Ethereum, have flipped negative, a perfect sign of rising short interest. CoinGlass also shows declining open interest, which often precedes short squeezes when price bases hold. (source – Funding Rate, coinalyze) DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2025 Why is crypto down today, even as some alts show strength? Altcoins like Solana are down 11%, but BNB holding above 1K shows selective resilience. DeFi TVL, per DeFiLlama, dropped just under 1%, which is not really catastrophic, as some analysts made it look. (source – CoinGecko) Sentiment is deep in fear territory, but history tells us fear often precedes rebounds. Recent figures challenge the declining PUMP narrative. Pump.fun routinely collects about $2.5 million in daily fees, translating to over $20.89 million in monthly revenue and pushing toward an annual run‑rate beyond $770 million. Over a 30‑day span, DEX volume through Pump.fun stands near $3.68 billion, while Solana crypto chains overall host about $76.64 million in daily trades. If PUMP crypto were dying, these numbers don’t show it. (source – Dune) Read the full story here. 2 hours ago As Bull Crypto Market Heads South: What’s Next For Bitcoin in 2025? By Akiyama Felix The bull crypto market *is* over, for crypto at least. You should have sold. To be clear, the whole of twitter was saying altseason is here last week. So where is it? What if you’re wrong and the bull market is actually over? And you still didn’t take advantage? Every YouTuber and crypto influencer is telling us to HODL. No way they could all be wrong, right? (Source: TradingView) Just one week after the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note on Tuesday. He admitted the US labor market is softening, inflation is still running hot, and policymakers face what he called “two-way risk.” “There is no risk-free path forward,” Powell said, leaving October’s policy decision wide open. Futures now price in a 92% chance of another cut in October, up from 89.8% before Powell spoke, with traders betting on three total cuts by year-end. But will all of this be enough for the crypto markets if we enter another recession? DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Read the original article here. 5 hours ago Is This The End of Memecoin Sector? By Akiyama Felix The crypto market has been highly volatile lately, with Bitcoin’s dip to $112K wiping billions from altcoin valuations. Memecoins were hit especially hard. PEPE fell 16%, TRUMP coin dropped 18%, and SHIB barely held its key support level. Yet history shows that meme tokens often rally hard after September’s weakness during altcoin season. Here’s a breakdown of these three major memecoins and one fresh contender that could become the next crypto to explode. Shiba InuPriceMarket CapSHIB$7.05B24h7d30d1yAll time Read the full story here. The post Latest Crypto Market News Today, September 25: Why is Crypto Down Today? BTC Price Below 112K USD, ETH Dips Under 4K appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders locked in a significant amount of gain around the time of the latest price plunge. Bitcoin HODLer Whales Have Shown Profit-Taking Spree Recently As explained by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, long-term holder whales have participated in some profit-taking recently. “Long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago. This cohort is considered to represent the HODLers of the market, who rarely sell even in the face of volatility. That said, there are times when these investors do participate in selloffs, and one such instance seems to have occurred just recently. In the context of the current topic, the everyday LTHs aren’t of focus, but rather the LTH whales, diamond hands who carry more than 1,000 BTC (about $113.7 million) in their balance. Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit for the LTH whales over the last few weeks. The Realized Profit here is naturally an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of profit that the Bitcoin LTH whales are locking in through their transactions. From the graph, it’s visible that this metric observed a notable spike on September 21st. This was the day BTC started a price drawdown that took it to the $112,000 level. Thus, it would appear possible that the profit-taking from the HODLers may have in part been to blame for the bearish action. In total, LTH whales harvested over $120 million in profits during this distribution spree. Meanwhile, the short-term holders (STHs), representing investors who entered the market during the past five months, participated in loss-taking instead, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin STHs sent 15,700 BTC at a loss to exchanges during the price crash. Investors generally use these platforms when they want to sell, so these loss transactions could have been a sign of capitulation from the cohort. The STHs have a relatively short holding time, so they are assumed to include the weak hands of the sector. In that view, the latest capitulation would be on-brand for the group. Coming back to the LTHs, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a chart that puts into perspective the total amount of profit that the LTHs as a whole have realized in the current cycle so far. The cumulative Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit sits at 3.4 million BTC for the current bull market, which is higher than all, but one previous cycle. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery during the past day as its price has returned to $113,700.

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but some of them are truly important. Most notably, the US reports on durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. The third estimate is the final one, and the first and second releases are often revised—thus, the last release carries the most weight. The durable goods report is also significant, as it reflects changes in US consumer demand for major, high-value goods. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index will be published, but this is far from the most critical release. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Thursday's fundamental events, Federal Reserve speeches by Bowman, Barr, and Daly are worth mentioning. However, at this point, the range of views on monetary policy within the FOMC is entirely clear. There are three pronounced "doves": Christopher Waller, Steve Miran, and Michelle Bowman. The rest of the Fed members maintain a restrained position that does not imply rapid or aggressive rate cuts. As a whole, then, the FOMC adheres to a view of gradual easing, contingent upon macroeconomic data. Fresh comments from Mary Daly or Michelle Bowman are unlikely to alter the situation. General Conclusions:On the penultimate trading day of the week, both major currency pairs may resume their decline. The euro can be sold if it consolidates below the 1.1737–1.1745 area, with a target of 1.1666. The pound can be sold on a bounce from the 1.3466–1.3475 area, aiming for 1.3421. However, we would not ignore buy signals either, since the fundamental and macro backdrop is still not in favor of the dollar. Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin started a fresh decline below the $0.250 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might dip further if it stays below $0.2550. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.250 level. The price is trading below the $0.250 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.2450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could extend losses if there is a move below $0.230. Dogecoin Price Turns Red Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.2550, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.250 and $0.2450 support levels. The price even traded below $0.2350. A low was formed near $0.230, and the price recently attempted a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $0.2888 swing high to the $0.2302 low. However, the bears were active near the $0.250 resistance. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.2450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.250 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a recovery wave, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.2450 level and the trend line. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.250 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.260 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $0.2888 swing high to the $0.2302 low. A close above the $0.260 resistance might send the price toward the $0.2780 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.2840 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2920. More Losses In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2450 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.2320 level. The next major support is near the $0.230 level. The main support sits at $0.2250. If there is a downside break below the $0.2250 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.2120 level or even $0.2050 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.2320 and $0.2300. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2450 and $0.2500.

Stellar (XLM) is showing signs of resilience after weeks of consolidation, with the cryptocurrency defending the crucial $0.37 horizontal support level. At the time of writing, XLM trades around $0.36, down 0.56% on the daily charts and 4.2% weekly. Despite the short-term weakness, analysts suggest that the altcoin’s recent bounce could set the stage for a move toward $0.50 and beyond. The $0.37 level has historically acted as both resistance and support, making it a decisive zone for future price action. A reclaim above this mark could push XLM toward the long-standing descending resistance near $0.48, with a breakout potentially triggering a stronger rally. Technical Indicators Signal Mixed Outlook Market data highlights both caution and opportunity for Stellar traders. Momentum indicators remain balanced, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to neutral at 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly above zero. While these readings suggest indecision, the broader technical setup indicates a potential bullish reversal. Analysts also observe a developing wedge pattern on the daily chart, which often signals a possible upside breakout. If bulls can sustain momentum and push the price above $0.41, the next targets are between $0.58 and $0.80. Conversely, failing to hold above $0.35 could expose the token to declines toward $0.30 or even $0.21. Stellar (XLM) Institutional Adoption Fuels Long-Term Optimism Beyond technical analysis, Stellar’s ecosystem developments are increasing confidence in the project’s long-term outlook. The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) recently announced access to over $3 billion in real-world assets (RWA) on its network, with issuers like PayPal, Ondo Finance, and Mercado Bitcoin actively involved. The launch of PayPal USD (PYUSD) on Stellar has been a key factor in driving adoption, strengthening the network’s role in cross-border payments and asset tokenization. Additionally, expanding partnerships with companies such as Mastercard and MoneyGram demonstrate XLM’s growing institutional presence. With Bitcoin remaining strong above $112,000 and market sentiment gradually improving after recent volatility, analysts view Stellar as a strong candidate for near-term recovery. If the bullish scenario unfolds, XLM’s next key milestone could be a breakout above $0.50, paving the way for a broader rally. Cover image from ChatGPT, XLMUSD chart from Tradingview