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The US dollar continued its growth against a range of risk assets, indicating sustained demand and the prospect of more cautious action from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. Yesterday's upward revision of Q2 US GDP to a strong 3.8% was the trigger for dollar buying and a selloff in risk assets. Clearly, after contracting in Q1, the US economy is showing unexpected resilience despite the Fed's tight monetary policy. This, in turn, strengthens investors' confidence in the US economy's ability to withstand future challenges. Yesterday's sharp drop in jobless claims also points to a labor market that is once again showing strength, despite some signs of cooling. Today promises to be an eventful day on European financial markets, marked by numerous macroeconomic announcements; however, prospects for optimists hoping for euro strength appear rather cloudy. In the first half of the day, attention will be focused on Spanish GDP data. While any positive surprises from Madrid will certainly be well-received by the market, they are unlikely to change the overall picture. The more significant event will undoubtedly be the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Traders will analyze each of her words carefully, searching for hints regarding the central bank's future monetary policy. Lagarde is most likely to use cautious and balanced language, avoiding sharp statements that could destabilize markets. If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly above or below economists' forecasts, a Momentum strategy is recommended. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuy breakout above 1.1690 (targeting 1.1720 and 1.1755)Sell breakout below 1.1660 (targeting 1.1635 and 1.1601)GBP/USDBuy breakout above 1.3365 (targeting 1.3390 and 1.3420)Sell breakout below 1.3330 (targeting 1.3280 and 1.3250)USD/JPYBuy breakout above 149.95 (targeting 150.20 and 150.55)Sell breakout below 149.60 (targeting 149.30 and 148.90)Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDLook for sells after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1690 and return below this levelLook for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1653 and return above this level GBP/USDLook for sells after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3366 and return below this levelLook for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3321 and return above this level AUD/USDLook for sells after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6551 and return below this levelLook for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6530 and return above this level USD/CADLook for sells after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3948 and return below this levelLook for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3927 and return above this levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some of them may trigger a market reaction. First and foremost, attention should be paid to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Many consider the PCE index to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, though we don't necessarily agree. Besides, significant deviations from forecasts for the PCE are extremely rare. Thus, in both cases, a market reaction is likely only if the actual readings significantly diverge from expectations. Fundamental Events Analysis: Among Friday's fundamental events, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech should be noted, but as we mentioned earlier, there are currently no pressing questions for the ECB. That is, we should not expect any new statements on monetary policy from the ECB's head at this time. The rhetoric of representatives of the ECB may change over time as inflation rises or falls, but for that to happen, we need to wait for the next inflation reports or other important data. Additionally, today, there will be speeches by Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, and Raphael Bostic. Recall that within the FOMC, there are currently only three open "doves" ready to vote for a rate cut at every meeting. There are not enough of them to consider the whole committee "dovish." General Conclusions:During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction. Both the euro and the pound have fallen sufficiently over the past week and a half to warrant an upward corrective bounce. However, two more relatively important indicators will be released in the US today, which could spark another wave of dollar growth. Traders will need to adapt their strategies in response to developments. For the euro, the 1.1655–1.1666 area can serve as a trading zone. For the pound sterling, look at the 1.3329–1.3334 area, from which the price has already bounced twice. Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wall Street Ends Lower Amid Fed Uncertainty U.S. stocks closed Thursday with modest losses as most sectors of the S&P 500 slipped. Investors grew cautious, reassessing expectations about how quickly the Federal Reserve may proceed with further interest rate cuts. Jobless Claims and Economic Growth Labor Department figures showed that initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ending September 20, after seasonal adjustments. Revised estimates also revealed stronger second-quarter economic growth than previously thought, driven by resilient consumer spending and rising business investments. Fed Officials Urge Caution Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, warned that cutting rates too aggressively could reignite inflationary pressures. His remarks followed last week's decision by the Fed to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points – the first reduction since December – amid signs of weakness in the labor market. Market Awaits Key Inflation Data Investors are now looking ahead to Friday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see an 83.4 percent chance of another 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting, down from about 92 percent just a day earlier. Sector Performance and Intel Surge While most sectors within the S&P 500 ended in the red, energy stocks gained 0.9 percent. The tech sector inched up 0.03 percent, boosted by Intel shares, which soared nearly 9 percent. The Wall Street Journal reported that the chipmaker has approached Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company with proposals for investments or potential partnerships. Wall Street Closes Lower U.S. markets ended Thursday in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 174 points, a drop of 0.38 percent, finishing at 45,947.32. The S&P 500 lost 33.25 points, or 0.50 percent, closing at 6,604.72. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 113.16 points, also down 0.50 percent, ending the session at 22,384.70. Corporate Earnings Under Scrutiny Shares of consulting powerhouse Accenture declined 2.7 percent, even though the company reported revenue that topped Wall Street estimates. Investors remain cautious and are waiting for quarterly results from other major firms, especially after the market's recent record-setting rally that pushed valuations to elevated levels. Fed Policy Debate Intensifies Attention now turns to next week's monthly U.S. employment report, a key indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Inside the Fed, disagreements persist. Stephen Miran, recently appointed to the central bank by President Donald Trump, has been vocal in urging a faster pace of monetary easing. By contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated earlier this week that the central bank must carefully weigh inflation concerns against signs of labor market weakness before making further decisions. Indian Solar Firm Faces Scrutiny Shares of India's Waaree Energies plunged 4.5 percent to 3,288.9 rupees on Friday. The decline followed news that U.S. customs officials are investigating whether the solar panel manufacturer sought to bypass tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic components by labeling them as Indian-made. U.S. Customs Tightens Oversight On Friday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued an internal memo stating it had credible reasons to suspect that Waaree failed to label certain imported products as subject to long-standing antidumping and countervailing duties. These tariffs have been in place for years to safeguard domestic industries. Preventive Measures and Financial Deposits The agency stressed that it is taking steps to protect U.S. revenue during the inquiry. As part of these measures, Waaree, a renewable energy company, has been required to place cash deposits while the investigation is underway. Stock Performance Despite the scrutiny, Waaree's shares have shown impressive momentum since entering the market. From their debut in October 2024, the stock has gained 37 percent. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also plunged on Thursday. Recall that the British pound had grounds for its latest downward move. We cannot say these reasons were unambiguous—many factors were interpreted by the market against the pound, though they could've been seen the other way around. However, on Thursday, the US GDP and durable goods orders reports could only be interpreted as favorable to the US dollar. Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, while durable goods orders rose by 2.9%—in both cases, much stronger than forecasts. Thus, more positive reports triggered growth in the US currency, fully supporting the current downward trend, now reaffirmed by the trend line. However, it's worth remembering that quite specific events triggered the dollar's rise over the past week. The dollar will need more data in its favor for sustained growth. It's not ready for an independent trend. 5M Chart of GBP/USD In the 5-minute time frame, Thursday saw a bounce from the 1.3466 level during the European session, which allowed short positions to be opened from the morning. At the start of the US session, the 1.3413–1.3421 area was easily broken, and by the end of the day, the pair reached the 1.3329–1.3331 zone. Thus, with just one short trade, even novice traders could have made around 120 pips from a relatively simple signal. How to Trade on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend. As we've said, there are no grounds for a prolonged dollar rally, so in the medium term, we expect moves only northward. Recent developments in the UK and the US have indeed supported the US currency, and the dollar's appreciation was justified. But globally, the fundamental background still does not favor it. On Friday, the GBP/USD pair could continue to fall—but this will require new data to support the decline. If the price breaches the 1.3329–1.3331 region, this will serve as a signal to open positions with a target at 1.3259. At present, the price has bounced from this zone twice, so longs targeting 1.3413–1.3421 are also relevant. On the 5-minute time frame, you can trade by using levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Friday, the UK calendar is empty, and in the US, only two reports are worth attention: the Core PCE Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. In both cases, a market reaction should only be expected if the data deviates from forecasts. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday after consolidating below the ascending trend line. Thus, from a technical analysis perspective, this was an entirely logical move. The trend has shifted to bearish, so a decline is expected. However, Thursday's drop did not result solely from technical factors. During the US trading session, reports were published that we had previously advised paying attention to: durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Both reports delivered much stronger results than traders and experts had expected, which triggered a sharp strengthening of the dollar. Thus, on the local scale, the dollar had grounds to strengthen; however, on a global, long-term scale, the fundamental backdrop continues to weigh on it. Recall that many macroeconomic indicators can only envy the GDP growth rates, while the Fed has resumed quantitative easing, which is a strong bearish factor for the dollar. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, Thursday produced a very "long" sell signal. It formed throughout the European session, but eventually the pair consolidated below the 1.1737–1.1745 area. In just about an hour, the price reached the 1.1655–1.1666 zone. The drop started abruptly, so it was crucial to enter short positions quickly. Those who managed to enter earned about 30–40 pips. How to Trade on Friday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has, on a global scale, begun a new round of correction, aided by the US Q2 GDP report. However, the overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable for the US dollar, so we still do not expect strong dollar strength. In our view, as before, the US currency can only count on technical corrections—one of which we are observing now. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair may continue to fall; however, it is essential to note that on Thursday, there were strong reasons for this, whereas today may not be the case. Therefore, Friday's movement could go either way, and the macroeconomic background may once again impact traders' sentiment. On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the levels 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1737–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Friday, pay attention to Christine Lagarde's speech, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indexes and the US PCE data. We do not expect anything from Lagarde's speech, but the US indices could impact the dollar's exchange rate. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price attempted a recovery wave above the $2.850 zone but failed. The price is again moving lower and might decline again below the $2.720 zone. XRP price is moving lower below the $2.850 support zone. The price is now trading below $2.840 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $2.850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it dips below $2.720. XRP Price Dips Below Support XRP price attempted a recovery wave above the $2.90 level, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.90 and $2.92 resistance levels before the bears appeared. A high was formed at $2.995 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a drop below the $2.90 support. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $2.850 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. A low was formed at $2.724 and the price is now consolidating below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.724 low. The price is now trading below $2.850 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.788 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.850 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.724 low. A clear move above the $2.850 resistance might send the price toward the $2.920 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.950 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.00. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $2.850 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.720 level. The next major support is near the $2.680 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.680 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.6150. The next major support sits near the $2.60 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.720 and $2.680. Major Resistance Levels – $2.850 and $2.920.

SUI is attempting to hold a crucial area as support amid the recent market downturn. Some analysts suggest the altcoin’s price is retesting a make-or-break level that will determine the direction of its next big move. SUI Hits Two-Month Low On Thursday, SUI is retesting the local range lows after an 8% daily drop from the $3.40 area to a key support level. The recent market pullbacks have momentarily halted most bullish rallies, sending leading cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) to an eight-week low of $3,800. Now, SUI’s rally, which was fueled by institutional interest, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), and positive developments for the network, has declined over 21% in the weekly timeframe. The cryptocurrency has seen a strong three-month rally following its early Q3 breakout to its multi-month high of $4.44. The altcoin has hovered between the $3.10-$4.00 levels over the past three months, attempting to break out of this range multiple times. Last week, SUI’s price retested this area for the third time during this period, but has since been rejected from the range highs after failing to hold the $3.80 mark as support. Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that the cryptocurrency has been “stuck” inside the $3.10-$4.30 range since May, briefly losing the support area during the June pullback. According to the trader, the five-month consolidation should eventually lead to a big price move out of the range. “As we approach the range low/support, it’s back on my radar for a potential range play,” he noted, adding that it would need a strong bounce from this area to hold the macro range. On the contrary, Daan suggested that “If it sits there and doesn’t do anything, then that’s a red flag,” as it would risk losing the crucial multi-month support and retracing toward the June lows. Price Retests Make-Or-Break Level Amid the retracement, SUI is also retesting another crucial support. As multiple analysts pointed out, the cryptocurrency is trading within a textbook ascending triangle pattern on a higher timeframe. Notably, the price has been compressing within the pattern’s upper and lower boundaries since early Q2. Throughout the multi-month consolidation, each time the altcoin has bounced from the ascending support, it has retested the flat upper trendline. Ali Martinez highlighted that a successful breakout from the bullish formation’s resistance line around the $4 barrier would set the stage for a retest of its all-time high (ATH) level of $5.35 and an overall 75% rally toward the $7 area. Similarly, analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems affirmed that “it’s really time to pay attention” to the bullish formation, as the price compression continues and a break from the pattern seems imminent. Per the post, SUI’s price must hold the triangle’s rising lower trendline to be able to attempt to break out of the pattern again. Failing to maintain this key support, currently located around the $3.10 area, could invalidate the setup and lead to a retest of the $2.40-$2.90 zone. As of this writing, SUI is trading at $3.15, a nearly 10% decline in the monthly timeframe.

Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,050. ETH is now struggling and might decline further if it breaks the $3,850 support zone. Ethereum failed to extend gains and declined below the $4,000 zone. The price is trading below $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,050 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $3,880 and $3,850. Ethereum Price Dips Further Ethereum price remained in a bearish zone after it settled below $4,250, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $4,120 and $4,050 support levels. The bears even pushed the price below $4,000. A low was formed at $3,826 and the price recently started a minor recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. However, the bears remained active near the $3,950 resistance zone. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,050 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,000 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,050 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,120 level. A clear move above the $4,120 resistance might send the price toward the $4,150 resistance and the trend line. An upside break above the $4,250 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,320 resistance zone or even $4,350 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,050 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,880 level. The first major support sits near the $3,820 zone. A clear move below the $3,820 support might push the price toward the $3,750 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,720 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,650. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $3,820 Major Resistance Level – $4,050

Despite recent fluctuations that saw the Bitcoin price retrace nearly 6% on a weekly basis, market expert Timothy Peterson remains bullish on the leading cryptocurrency’s future. The expert, also a Bitcoin author and economist, predicts that there is at least a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026, a forecast he shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. Optimistic Projections For The Bitcoin Price Peterson’s optimistic outlook is grounded in his analysis of the Median Bitcoin Yearly Price Path chart, which suggests that October typically marks the beginning of a new upward trend for the Bitcoin price, extending through to June of the following year. He elaborated that achieving the $200,000 target would require an average monthly return of approximately 7%, translating to an 120% annualized increase. Furthermore, he noted a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November of this year. As seen in the chart below, Peterson outlined additionally, two potential bullish scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory. The most scenario points toward a surge to a new record of $240,000, while a more conservative estimate suggests a rise toward $160,000. Regardless, these indicators he referenced imply that the remainder of the year and subsequent months of 2026, could be marked by significant price increases for the market’s leading cryptocurrency. However, the broader crypto market performance has not been without its challenges. Investors Brace For Friday’s PCE Data On Thursday, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), experienced a downturn as investors shifted their focus to upcoming economic data, particularly following a sharp market correction earlier in the week. Traders are particularly attentive to Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, which could have implications for future interest rate decisions. When interest rates decrease, more stable investments such as bonds or equities tend to offer lower yields, encouraging investors to seek riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Earlier in the week, a substantial sell-off occurred across the crypto market, marking the largest deleveraging event of the year. On Monday, many digital asset investors unwound bullish positions that had been established after the Fed’s recent quarter-point interest rate cut. Maja Vujinovic, CEO of Digital Assets at FG Nexus, commented on the situation, emphasizing that the recent liquidations stemmed from excessive leverage rather than failing market fundamentals. She noted, “Overheated funding post-Fed left traders exposed; once Bitcoin rolled over, forced unwinds hit ETH and altcoins hard.” Despite the cautious sentiment prevailing in the crypto market this week, Vujinovic pointed out that historical trends suggest these “leverage washes” often pave the way for a healthier market foundation. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

EUR/USD Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A firm move below this level will open the way to 1.1495. This morning, the price is rising. The limit for a correction is the MACD line, which is approximately 1.1712. However, for the Marlin oscillator not to return to positive territory, any rise followed by a decline must happen quickly. Today, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) indices for August will be published. The forecast suggests a rise from 2.6% y/y to 2.7% y/y. If this materializes, volatility could pick up, likely resulting in a lower euro by the end of the day. Notably, the market probability of a Fed rate cut in October dropped from 97.4% to 93.0% in a day, and for December, fell from 73.0% to 59.8% (!). Yields on government bonds also rose across all maturities. On the four-hour chart, the price is declining in a typical fashion with brief corrections. The bears have good conditions to close out the week in profit. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.71% rise in the US dollar index, the British pound, which was already experiencing additional pressure from the policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, lost 102 pips. On the weekly chart, the price has broken below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has also consolidated in the territory of a downward trend. The pound is likely to face a prolonged decline ahead. The nearest significant target is the embedded price channel line around the 1.3000 mark. On the daily chart, the price has broken below the nearest support at 1.3364. The next target at 1.3253 is now in play. The decline may continue to 1.3140—the lows from May and August. This is a strong level from which we expect a deep correction (approximately up to 1.3253). By then, the Marlin oscillator will reach the oversold zone and is also expected to correct. On the four-hour chart, it may appear that the price and the Marlin oscillator have formed a convergence, but in reality, there is none—this is a manifestation of channel variations in this case. The price is consolidating below the 1.3364 level, and after this consolidation is complete, the main short-term (for now) downtrend will likely continue. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY On the weekly chart, the price has moved above the Balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is speeding up its upward movement. The target along the embedded price channel line at 151.45 is open. A firm hold above this level will open the way to the 157.70 target. Despite the almost unequivocal outlook for this scenario, there is one powerful reason it might not materialize—a financial crisis in the US, accompanied by a deep drop in stock indices—something akin to what happened from February to April, when the S&P 500 plummeted by 21%. True, USD/JPY declined unevenly and unsynchronized during that period, but the crisis was not as systemic as it might become now. On the daily chart, the price, in sync with the weekly scenario, has risen above the MACD line. The resistance at 149.38 has also been surpassed. The Marlin oscillator is still far from the overbought zone, and the target range of 151.70–152.10 (highs from October 2022 and November 2023), which is just above the weekly target, is open. On the H4 chart, the price is holding above 149.38. The Marlin oscillator failed to consolidate above its own range of 0.4757–1.1573, indicating a sideways movement is likely, with support at 149.38. A resumption of upward movement could start on Monday. In any case, for the growth to continue, the price needs to break above yesterday's high. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which is already starting to look at least somewhat unusual. Let's remember: explaining any move after the fact is easy if you want to. We try to avoid that kind of "analysis," where moves are merely explained after they happen, rather than predicted and properly analyzed. What's the point of telling people after a move has occurred why it happened? The pound sterling has been falling for about a week, losing around 300 pips from its latest high. That's quite a lot, but were there solid reasons for such a drop? Technically, yes. This is one of those cases where the market interpreted the information as it saw fit, rather than as logic or common sense might suggest. Recall that it all started last week after the Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings. Despite the Fed confirming a "moderately dovish" path for the next six months, and the BoE, on the contrary, taking a "moderately wait-and-see" stance, the market somehow interpreted the results in favor of... the US dollar. The next day, news broke of yet another budget crisis in the UK, but it's hard to see what's so tragic about that. The United States has been living with a deficit budget, month after month, for decades—and that hasn't stopped the US dollar from rising for 16–17 years straight. If anybody has forgotten, in 2007, the pound was worth $2.12. Formally, then, there was a reason to sell the pound, but it wasn't any more significant than "Reeves's tears" a few months ago. This week, both the Fed Chair and the BoE Governor have already spoken, and the market once again interpreted the news unfavorably for the pound. According to traders and analysts, Jerome Powell disappointed them by not promising to cut rates at every meeting or do it rapidly. The fact that Powell has never even hinted at such a scenario is of no interest to anyone. Only three officials within the FOMC support aggressive easing, and they are all, to varying degrees, Trump appointees. Trump appointed Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and Stephen Miran replaced the outgoing Adriana Kugler with support from the same president. All three believe the labor market is more important than inflation and therefore the key rate should be cut, as soon as possible. To top it all off, the BoE Governor also disappointed traders. Market participants expected Bailey to say that rate cuts would be impossible anytime soon due to high inflation, but instead, he actually discussed slowing inflation and labor market weakness, hinting at another easing before the year's end. It's hard to see where Bailey finds this "slowing inflation," but perhaps the BoE has its own charts showing the consumer price index going strictly to plan. The average volatility for GBP/USD over the past 5 trading days is 90 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this is a "normal" figure. On Friday, September 26, therefore, we expect to see movement within the range bounded by 1.3257 and 1.3437. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointing upward, which indicates a definite uptrend. The CCI indicator may once again enter the oversold zone, which could signal another potential upward reversal. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3306 S2 – 1.3245 S3 – 1.3184 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3367 R2 – 1.3428 R3 – 1.3489 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair is once again undergoing a correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect any meaningful growth from the US currency. Thus, buy positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain more relevant if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3257 can be considered on purely technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency does show corrections (as it does now), but for a sustained uptrend, it needs clear signs that the global trade war is over or other truly global and positive factors. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways movement, but corrections account for up to 90% of trend movements. However, all questions disappear when you switch to the daily time frame. Whatever the movement looks like on the 4-hour chart, on the daily timeframe, it is clear that the European currency has been rising almost non-stop for the ninth consecutive month. Yes, the current upward movement is not as strong as it was during the first six months of the year, but it remains an uptrend, with minimal corrections on the daily chart. On a global scale, the euro remains near its 3-year highs. This week, the market has already faced disappointment a couple of times. One example was Jerome Powell's speech. Honestly, we still don't understand who and why, except for the Fed, to make the most "dovish" moves, when Fed officials have been repeating this mantra for a year and a half now that rates will only change based on macroeconomic data. No one in the FOMC was eager to cut rates at the start of the year or in 2024. No one in the Committee was in a hurry to ease monetary policy. In recent days, Powell's speech has been dissected in the media from all sides, and the general consensus seems to be: the dollar is rising because the market's "dovish" expectations have not been met. However, we believe this conclusion is wrong. First, the US dollar is hardly rising at all—at least not against the euro. Perhaps the British pound is indeed losing ground, but the euro is only 150–200 pips away from its highest point in the last three years. Second, neither Jerome Powell's rhetoric, nor the FOMC Committee's stance, nor Donald Trump's actions regarding the Fed have changed in any meaningful way lately. In other words, absolutely nothing has changed. If nothing has changed, why would anyone expect the dollar to rise? Let's also recall that in the first half of 2025, the dollar collapsed even when the ECB was cutting rates and the Fed was holding steady. Now, the ECB is on hold and the Fed is cutting. Thus, in our view, the dollar still has only one direction—down. Keep in mind the nature of the current movement, which is characterized by numerous corrections, pullbacks, and other unfavorable features for traders. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days, as of September 26, is 74 pips and is characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1600 and 1.1748 on Friday. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointing up, which still indicates an uptrend. The CCI indicator moved into the overbought zone last week, which could have triggered the new round of downward correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1597 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1353 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1719 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1963 Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair has initiated a new correction, but the uptrend remains visible on all timeframes. The dollar is still under very strong influence from Trump's policies, with no plans to "stop here." The dollar rose as much as it could (a whole month), but now it looks like it's time for another long leg down. With the price below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with targets of 1.1600 and 1.1597 based purely on technical factors. If above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1963 in line with the prevailing trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday. Recall that the "black streak" for the British currency began last week. Over this period, both news events genuinely worked against the pound, and events that could be interpreted in various ways. In almost all cases, traders chose to interpret the news unfavorably for the British currency. Yesterday, the fall of the GBP/USD pair was entirely justified, as US data turned out to be far better than forecasts. US GDP grew in the second quarter by 3.8% versus initial forecasts of about 3%, and durable goods orders increased by 2.9% despite negative expectations. From a technical standpoint, everything is logical as well. A new downward trend has formed. Since the price breached the uptrend line, the decline has continued almost without interruption. Of course, it might have been much weaker if the market hadn't interpreted every bit of news against the pound, but we can't blame traders for this. Market makers see the situation with the Bank of England and the Fed in a somewhat unfavorable light for the British currency. That said, the broader fundamentals remain sharply negative for the dollar. All that remains is to wait for a new upward trend to emerge. On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed yesterday, although not as strong as those on the euro. First, the price broke through the 1.3420 level, allowing traders to open short positions. The nearest target—1.3369-1.3377—was reached, but the bounce from it turned out to be false. A bit later, the price broke and consolidated below this area, which once again allowed for opening shorts. Overall, only one trade was unprofitable, while two were profitable. COT Report COT reports for the pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been shifting constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and usually hover close to zero. Right now, they're nearly at the same level, meaning the number of buy and sell positions is roughly equal. The dollar continues to fall due to Donald Trump's policies, so at this point, market maker demand for the pound is not very significant. The trade war will likely persist in one form or another for a considerable time to come. The Fed will lower rates in the coming year regardless. Dollar demand will inevitably decline. According to the latest report on the pound, the "Non-commercial" group added 5,900 new BUY contracts and closed 21,100 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 27,000 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound has made significant gains, but the reason is clear: Donald Trump's policies. Once this fundamental driver fades, the dollar may start to strengthen again, but no one knows when that will be. The net position for the pound doesn't matter much; for the dollar, it keeps dropping, and generally at a faster rate. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair began falling last week due to a negative fundamental background, and this week the decline continues for the same reason. A new downward trend has started. There are still no global reasons for the dollar to strengthen, so we expect the 2025 uptrend to resume in almost any case. However, for now, the local trend is clearly downward. For September 26, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line (1.3587) and Kijun-sen line (1.3438) can also be sources for signals. A stop loss is recommended to be set to breakeven once the price moves 20 points in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. On Friday, the UK calendar is empty, while in the US, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and reports on personal incomes and spending will be published. These are not the biggest reports, but they may nonetheless provoke a market reaction if values are resonant. Trading RecommendationsToday, traders can expect the decline to continue since the trend is clearly downward. The price has broken through the 1.3369–1.3377 area, allowing you to stay in shorts with a target of 1.3212. It is not a given that the pound will fall that low, but that is the target. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which was entirely justified this time. The day before, the European currency had been falling for inexplicable reasons, but on Thursday, everything was logical. In the US, important data on Q2 GDP and durable goods orders were published in the afternoon, and both reports delivered strong numbers. The American economy grew not by 3.3% as expected, but by 3.8%. Durable goods orders rose by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.5%. As a result, the pair exhibited the expected movement. We believe that the growth of the American economy is somewhat artificial; however, the fact of growth itself cannot be denied. If the dollar falls on negative macroeconomic data, it should rise in response to positive ones. The day before, the price consolidated below the 1.1750-1.1760 area as well as below the trend line. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the southward movement was completely natural. On the 5-minute timeframe, there was one excellent sell signal in the 1.1750-1.1760 area during the previous day. The price traded along this area for the entire European session but eventually bounced down from it. Just a few hours later, the nearest target level of 1.1666 was reached. Thus, this trade could have yielded about 60 points with minimal risk. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 16. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long been bullish, with the bears only barely gaining the upper hand at the end of 2024—and they quickly lost it. Since Trump took office for a second time, the dollar has been the only one to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, but global events point to this scenario. We still don't see any fundamental factors supporting the euro, but there remain plenty of reasons for the dollar to fall. The global downward trend remains intact, but at this point, what difference does it make that the price has been relatively stable for the past 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may be able to rally; however, recent developments indicate that trade wars will likely continue in one form or another. The potential loss of Fed independence is another major factor weighing on the US currency. The red and blue lines of the indicator still point to a bullish trend. During the last reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group's number of longs dropped by 4,800, while shorts increased by 3,100, bringing the net position down by 7,900 contracts for the week. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has canceled its local uptrend. Now a downtrend is forming. Still, we see no reason for a prolonged dollar rally. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the uptrend remains, while the strengthening of the American currency is relatively weak. On the lower timeframes, the US currency is rising, but it is unclear how long this trend will last. For September 26, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1790) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1744). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can shift during the day, which should be considered when detecting trade signals. Remember to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves in your favor by 15 pips. This will safeguard you from potential losses if the signal proves to be false. On Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in the Eurozone. In the US, reports on personal income and expenditures, the PCE index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be published. All these events could trigger a market reaction, just as we saw yesterday. Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the downward movement may continue, but traders can simply trade by signals. It is not worth ruling out upward movement completely, nor ignoring US macroeconomic data. The pair's dynamics on Friday will depend on several factors, so it does not make sense to try to predict the price direction in advance. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price extended losses after it traded below $112,500. BTC is now consolidating losses and might decline again to test the $108,500 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $112,500 zone. The price is trading below $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at $110,500 and $113,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it stays below the $113,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to start a recovery wave and stayed below $114,000. BTC declined below the $112,500 and $112,000 support levels to move further into a bearish zone. The decline gained pace below the $111,500 level. A low was formed at $108,680 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $113,939 swing high to the $108,680 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $112,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance at $110,500 and $113,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $109,920 level. The first key resistance is near the $110,500 level and the trend line. The next resistance could be $111,300 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $113,939 swing high to the $108,680 low. A close above the $111,300 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $114,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $110,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $108,800 level. The first major support is near the $108,200 level. The next support is now near the $107,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $106,400 support in the near term. The main support sits at $105,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,800, followed by $108,200. Major Resistance Levels – $110,500 and $113,000.

Earlier today, Ethereum (ETH) slid below the psychologically important $4,000 level for the first time since August 8. The fall in ETH’s price can be attributed to a mix of macroeconomic, structural, and crypto-specific factors. Ethereum Dips Below $4,000, Analyst Explains Why According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, ETH’s latest descent below $4,000 can be blamed on a complex mix of factors. First, a strong US dollar, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance following its September rate cut, dampened risk appetite. Furthermore, rising bond yields and the increasing risk of a US government shutdown have spooked investors, discouraging them from investing in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies like ETH. Second, the analyst points to the role of leverage in ETH’s latest dip. On September 22, more than $500 million in ETH longs were wiped out within 24 hours, resulting in the unwinding of high leverage that was building up in Q2 2025. During the sell-off, ETH whales faced close to $45 million in forced sales. In addition, low weekend trading volume and shallow order books enhanced ETH’s price swings. Notably, institutional investors turned to OTC redemptions, following the Fed meeting to reduce their exposure to ETH. From a technical perspective, ETH failed to decisively break through the stiff resistance near $4,500 – $4,600. Failure to defend the $4,200 support worsened things for ETH, turning the momentum sharply bearish. The fifth reason was regulatory headwinds surrounding digital assets, especially the uncertainty around MiCA in the EU and US crypto legislation. ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows worth $76 million weighed on investor sentiment. Finally, a surge in validator exit queues and reduced staking inflows weakened natural buy-side support. Other factors, such as seasonal weakness and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rising dominance in the market, contributed to ETH’s sell-off. Arab Chain concluded: While this correction reflects structural positioning and macro forces rather than a broken thesis, volatility may persist until liquidity returns and regulatory clarity improves. Will ETH Stage A Recovery? While the momentum is against ETH currently, some analysts are optimistic about a turnaround in ETH’s fortunes in the coming months. For instance, ETH’s CME futures open interest is inching closer to new highs, setting a new potential target for ETH of $6,800 by the end of 2025. Similarly, the surge in ETH contracts throughout the year has some analysts convinced that the digital asset may soon embark on a rally to $5,000. ETH’s illiquid supply could further propel it to new highs. In his latest analysis, crypto commentator Ted Pillows predicted that the increase in global M2 money supply could pave the way for $20,000 ETH. At press time, ETH trades at $3,959, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours.

On-chain data shows a Dogecoin whale has made a significant withdrawal from cryptocurrency exchange Binance despite the decline in the memecoin’s price. Dogecoin Whale Has Made A Massive Move During The Past Day According to data from cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, a large move has been spotted on the Dogecoin blockchain over the past day. The transfer in question involved the movement of nearly 122.4 million DOGE, worth around $28.5 million at the time the network processed it. Considering the scale of the transaction, it’s likely that a whale entity was behind it. Whales refer to the big-money investors of the cryptocurrency, who can carry some degree of influence in the market thanks to their large holdings. Moves related to such holders can be worth keeping an eye on, due to their standing. The transfers may not directly impact the memecoin’s price, but they can still contain information about the sentiment among these giants. A lot of these moves are anonymous, however, meaning it can be hard to infer anything from them. Luckily, the latest Dogecoin whale transaction involved a wallet that has already been identified. Below are the address details related to the transfer. As is visible, the sending address in the case of this Dogecoin whale transaction was a wallet attached to cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The receiver, on the other hand, was an unknown wallet, suggesting that it was likely to be an investor’s self-custodial address. Moves of this type, where coins flow from centralized exchanges to self-custody, are known as Exchange Outflows. Generally, holders move coins away from the custody of these platforms when they plan to hold them in the long term, so Exchange Outflows can have a bullish impact on the asset’s price. The latest Binance Exchange Outflow from the whale has interestingly come following a drop of almost 18% for the memecoin over the past week. As such, it’s possible that the withdrawal corresponds to the large investor using the lower prices to accumulate DOGE. Speaking of buying, the Dogecoin whale cohort as a whole has added a significant amount of the asset to their wallets during the last couple of days, as analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, the total supply of the Dogecoin investors carrying between 100 million and 1 billion tokens has gone up by 2 billion DOGE (about $465 million) within this window. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.23, down more than 4.5% over the last 24 hours.

Dark Defender, a prominent XRP analyst, has drawn significant attention to the token, suggesting that XRP may be setting up a move that could take the market by surprise. Despite its struggle to decisively break above the $3 mark, XRP is now forming a Falling Wedge pattern that signals the potential for a powerful breakout by October. Falling Wedge Signals XRP Breakout By October In a recent XRP price analysis, published on Monday, Dark Defender noted that the third-largest cryptocurrency has once again respected its key support levels at $2.85, despite being rejected at $3.13. The XRP price tapped into the primary support trendline, highlighted in orange on the chart, which has consistently held as a structural base. Importantly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging closer to oversold territory, a signal often associated with potential price reversals. While skepticism spreads across the market, Dark Defender insists that the XRP bullish structure remains intact and that disbelief itself is a sign that many could be caught off guard by what’s to come. The analyst notes that the cryptocurrency has been consolidating within a Falling Wedge pattern between July and September. According to him, October could be the month when XRP finally breaks free from the wedge and delivers a rally strong enough to surprise the broader market. Building on this momentum, Dark Defender has forecasted three potential price targets for XRP by October: $4.17, $4.92, and $5.85. These levels correspond to upper Fibonacci Extension zones, specifically 261.8%, 361.8%, and 236.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, XRP has its closest supports set at $2.80 and $2.64, ensuring a strong base for the projected Falling Wedge breakout. XRP Bullish Run Just Starting Following his earlier predictions, Dark Defender further reinforced his bullish case by asserting that XRP has not begun its true rally. He suggested a power shift is underway, hinting that what the market has seen so far is only the beginning of a larger bullish wave. This perspective arrives at a time when XRP has already delivered a remarkable performance in 2025. According to CoinMarketCap’s data, the cryptocurrency has gained 384% Year-to-Date, a surge fueled by increasing demand, rumors of a potential XRP ETF, and renewed confidence after the conclusion of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. With XRP reaching a high of $3.65 earlier this year and trading just over 5% shy of reclaiming its former all-time high of $3.84, Dark Defender remains certain that the asset’s real growth is still ahead. Based on this view, the recent pullback below $3 is not seen as a weakness, but rather as a consolidation phase before the next leg higher. He highlighted that XRP is nearing the end of this corrective ABCDE consolidation phase and preparing for a lift-off. According to his chart analysis, once the cryptocurrency reclaims the $3.33 level, it could pave the way for double-digit prices.

Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium (TSXV: SLI) (NYSE.A: SLI) and Norway’s state-owned petroleum company Equinor (NYSE: EQNR), announced a maiden inferred resource for its Franklin project in the northeast region of Texas. The report for the JV’s first project in the East Texas region of the Smackover Formation highlights the size and quality of its brine position, the company said. Analysts estimate that the Smackover Formation could host more than 4 million tonnes of lithium, enough to power millions of electric vehicles and other electronic devices. Smackover said the project contains the highest reported lithium-in-brine grades in North America and marks a key step towards the ultimate goal of reaching production of over 100,000 tonnes of lithium chemicals per year in Texas through multiple phases. The JV is planning to develop two additional projects in East Texas that roughly triples the size of the portfolio area in the state, it said. Maiden inferred resource highlights Brine mineral leasing has been ongoing since 2022 in the approximate 80,000 acre project area Over 46,000 acres have been leased to support the inferred resource. Seismic, historic oil and gas well core and logging information, including completing three exploration wells in 2023, were used to assess the aquifer characteristics and brine chemistry. The highest reported North American lithium brine concentration to date of 806 mg/L was measured from the Pine Forest 1 well, the company said. The maiden resource report includes 2,159,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, 15,414,000 tonnes of potash (as potassium chloride) – a newly added mineral to the U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Draft Critical Mineral List – and 2,638,000 tonnes of bromide (ionized form of the commercial product bromine), contained within 0.61 km3 of brine volume underlying Smackover Lithium’s gross leased acreage at the Inferred Resource category. “Our team has been working diligently for the past four years to identify the most attractive areas to secure sizeable, high-quality brine resources in North America, and the Franklin Project provides a strong foundation for future, much larger production in the Smackover that will complement our South West Arkansas project,” Standard Lithium president Dr. Andy Robinson said in a news release. “We believe East Texas to be a meaningfully underappreciated part of our total asset portfolio and expect this report to be a key initial step towards achieving more appropriate recognition for this world-class asset.” Smackover Lithium is also developing a greenfield lithium extraction and chemicals production facility in the southwestern region of Arkansas. In January, the JV received a $225 million grant from the US Department of Energy to support the construction of Phase 1 of the project. Standard Lithium shares were up 9.2% by market close in New York. The company has a C$1.02 billion ($73million) market capitalization.

Crypto analyst Bobby A has published a four-panel roadmap that ties together Bitcoin dominance, US small-caps, XRP’s monthly price structure, and XRP’s total market capitalization. The overlapping signals, he argues, identify a well-defined take-profit band for XRP between roughly $8.43 and $13.58. “Four charts to rule them all,” he wrote, adding that the market is “clearly positioning itself for higher prices.” Four Charts Signal XRP $8.43–$13.58 Peak On the XRP/USD monthly chart, Bobby plots a multi-month consolidation which is built above “Base Camp 1” and, more recently, above “Base Camp 2.” The structure sits on top of a series of higher lows marked on the chart, with the consolidation developing after price reclaimed long-term moving-average clusters and the upper Bollinger band expanded. The Fibonacci extension grid anchored to the prior cycle shows 1.618 at approximately $5.26, 2.618 at about $8.43, 3.618 near $11.66, and 4.236 at roughly $13.58. Bobby labels the $8.43–$13.58 span as the “Take Profit Zone,” aligning it with the 2.618–4.236 extensions that capped previous euphoric runs on the same timeframe. Beneath the candles, the monthly momentum suite is turning higher: the RSI sits in a positive regime “preparing to initiate one final move toward overbought territory,” while stochastic and MACD lines have curled up from mid-range, consistent with trend continuation rather than exhaustion. That price-based roadmap is cross-checked against XRP’s total market capitalization on the weekly timeframe. Here, Bobby highlights “price acceptance above the 2018 peak surrounded by skepticism and uncertainty” and annotates “over 300 days consolidating above 2018 highs.” The Fibonacci projection on market cap places the 1.618 extension near ~$210.7 billion, with a boxed “Take Profit Zone” parked just below the ultimate extension band and an overhead dashed guide around ~$13.00 that visually rhymes with the 4.236 price extension on the USD chart. The message of this pane is less about day-to-day candles and more about location: a lengthy basing and re-accumulation phase above a historic ceiling, which converts that ceiling into support and sets up measured-move targets. Macro risk appetite is addressed in the third panel via the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) on the monthly chart. “IWM 1M is firing on all cylinders, and new ATHs are inbound regardless of any short-term noise,” Bobby writes. The chart shows a strong bullish candle reclaiming the 0.786–0.886 retracement area and pressing back into the prior range top around $244–$252. Upside Fibonacci targets are mapped at 1.272 ~$267.1, 1.414 ~$278.9, and 1.618 ~$296.8. The RSI, stochastic oscillator, and MACD on this timeframe are all pointed higher, with Bobby calling the breakout candle “very telling,” the kind of multi-indicator alignment he says “occurs only a few times per decade.” The implication is that a risk-on tone in US small-caps historically pairs well with liquidity rotating into higher-beta crypto segments. The final piece is Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) on the weekly chart. Bobby’s retracement panel measures the advance from ~38.9% to ~66.1% share and now shows BTC.D slipping beneath the 23.6% line (~59.7%) and hovering near the 38.2% (~55.5%). Notably, the BTC.D slipped below an ascending channel. Based on that, he draws a downward arrow toward the 50% level (~52.3%) and then into the 61.8% retracement (~49.1%), with a target rectangle in the mid-to-low-40s bracketed by the 78.6% (~45.9%) and 88.6% (~43.2%) levels. “BTC.D will inevitably initiate a move toward the mid to low 40% zone,” he writes. A decline in dominance of that magnitude typically coincides with capital rotating from Bitcoin into large-cap altcoins—precisely the regime in which XRP has historically captured outsized relative performance. At press time, XRP traded at $2.84.

On Thursday, the Japanese yen was losing ground against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair reaching its highest level in seven weeks. At the time of writing, trading was taking place around 149.88—continuing to rise for the second consecutive day, thanks to strong US economic data that is supporting demand for the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, beating the preliminary estimate of 3.3% and surpassing market expectations. The growth was driven by strong consumer spending and a significant drop in imports. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, included in the GDP report, rose 2.6%, slightly above the previous estimate and forecast of 2.5%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 fell to 218,000—better than expectations at 235,000 and down from 232,000 the prior week. Durable goods orders also surprised to the upside: in August, new orders jumped 2.9%, far exceeding the 1.5% forecast and rebounding after a revised 2.7% drop in July. These positive figures are boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to tread carefully with policy easing, limiting prospects for sharp rate cuts in the near future. After the US release, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the odds of a rate cut in October dropped to 85%, down from 94% before the data was released. In Japan, the Bank of Japan's minutes released on Thursday show that Board members are inclined to resume rate hikes in the future. Many have noted that the US trade deal has reduced some economic uncertainty, although tariffs remain a focus due to their potential effects on the economy and prices. These factors suggest the possibility of a near-term rate hike by the BOJ, offering some moderate support for the yen. Nevertheless, the upcoming LDP leadership election on October 4 may delay the move if a "dovish" candidate wins, which adds a layer of uncertainty and tempers bullish yen expectations amid concerns about US tariffs. Technical Perspective:Wednesday's overnight close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since July 31 was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, indicating that the path of least resistance remains upward for spot prices. The breakout above the 149.20 area, which marked the monthly high, confirms the constructive outlook and gives USD/JPY scope to aim for the psychological 150.00 level. A sustained move beyond this barrier would target the next big round number at 151.00, with intermediate resistance in the 150.65–150.75 zone. On the other hand, any pullback toward the 200-day SMA could be viewed as a buying opportunity—albeit limited to that level. For the best trading setups, keep an eye on Friday's Japanese Tokyo core CPI release and on the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Let me also highlight a few additional important points. First, the European currency is declining, but it has far fewer reasons than the pound sterling to continue falling. The pound faces several factors, including the Bank of England's weak position in combating inflation, potential budgetary issues for the UK in 2026, possible tax increases, and a potential slowdown in the labor market and economy. These factors also put pressure on the pound. The euro doesn't face similar issues. Second, the euro hasn't lost that much over the past few days to expect that the upward trend segment is over. In part, the dollar may be getting support for the following reasons. Donald Trump hasn't introduced new tariffs or even announced plans for them for quite a while now. Trump's fight against the Fed is, at this stage, completely lost. Of course, this doesn't mean Trump couldn't announce new sanctions as soon as tomorrow. Market participants know that right now, the US President is focused on ending the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and the White House believes that China and India are sponsoring the war in Ukraine by buying oil and gas from Russia. Therefore, these countries should stop buying from Russia. Naturally, neither Beijing nor New Delhi intends to give up access to cheap Russian oil, conveniently located nearby. Washington is offering China, India, and even the EU an alternative—American oil and gas. But, obviously, at different (higher) prices. Trump stays true to his approach—wherever it's possible to profit, profit must be made. Since China and India are unlikely to switch to buying American oil instead of Russian, Trump wants to introduce new tariffs. However, Washington does not want to "pull the weight" on its own, so it is demanding that the European Union introduce similar sanctions. From this, I conclude that the trade war is not over, and at any moment, we could see a new confrontation between the Global West and the Global East. Thus, I cannot say that the fundamental case for further US dollar growth is strong and convincing. The dollar has short-term prospects, but in my view, the strengthening of the US currency will soon come to an end. Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend segment. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background connected to Trump's decisions, as well as the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend segment may reach up to the 1.25 area. Currently, the instrument is declining within a corrective wave, but the upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm still interested in buying. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to the 1.2245 mark, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD: The wave pattern for GBP/USD is starting to change due to the recent decline. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. However, the internal structure of this segment is becoming increasingly complex. There is no talk of building a downward trend segment yet, but the pound now looks less attractive for trading than the euro. The targets for the upward trend segment are located around the 1.4017 mark, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci level. However, it is now necessary to determine where the current downward wave will end and how the wave structure will transform. Main Principles of My Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often require adjustments.If you're not confident in what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.There is and can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Donald Trump wanted to achieve high rates of economic growth through a sharp reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. However, Jerome Powell did not agree to the deal, and the FOMC Committee openly refused to make politically driven decisions. Trump was unable to convince the central bank of the need to lower the interest rate to 1-2%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also wonders why Powell did not promise a rate cut at the upcoming meetings. But Bessent and Trump are in the same boat, while Powell and the Fed's governors are in another. Therefore, the similarity in views on monetary policy between Trump and Bessent is not surprising. Since he failed to overpower the Fed, and he still needs appealing numbers, Trump could have taken another route — namely, influencing the Bureau of Statistics, which is much easier. I am almost certain that statistics are much like U.S. legislation: you can find a number of loopholes that allow you to avoid violating the law or established rules directly, while still permitting some inaccuracies or double interpretations. For example, in the same 1974 Emergency Act, which Trump used as justification for imposing global import tariffs, nothing is actually said about the tariffs themselves—there is no direct ban on tariffs. Trump did not violate the law directly, since it doesn't actually prohibit anything. But at the same time, the act says nothing about the president's specific powers during a state of emergency, nor does it list the reasons for which a state of emergency can be declared. Trump simply took advantage of the imperfections in this law, and now the courts must determine whether the president had the right to do so. And I'm not sure that the U.S. Supreme Court will make a definitive decision, as the two previous courts—the Trade and Appeals Courts—did. Six of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Republican presidents, and the law can be interpreted in various ways. The same goes for statistical information: some data can be "forgotten," some data can "go unnoticed," and for an error or deception to be revealed, an official investigation would be required. But who will conduct such an investigation, and who will even file a complaint against the Bureau of Statistics? Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend segment. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background connected to Trump's decisions, as well as the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend segment may reach up to the 1.25 area. Currently, the instrument is declining within a corrective wave, but the upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm still interested in buying. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to the 1.2245 mark, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD: The wave pattern for GBP/USD is starting to change due to the recent decline. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. However, the internal structure of this segment is becoming increasingly complex. There is no talk of building a downward trend segment yet, but the pound now looks less attractive for trading than the euro. The targets for the upward trend segment are located around the 1.4017 mark, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci level. However, it is now necessary to determine where the current downward wave will end and how the wave structure will transform. Main Principles of My Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often require adjustments.If you're not confident in what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.There is and can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com