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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundA test of the 1.3545 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting its move up from the zero line, confirming a good buy entry in GBP. However, the pair never developed a significant upward move. The sharp 0.1% drop in US producer prices in August led to a dollar decline and a strengthening of the British pound. Still, a major bullish run did not materialize. First, the PPI drop was a one-off event, shifting the focus to today's US Consumer Price Index figures. Second, ongoing uncertainty over the British economy continued to weigh on sterling. There are no UK data releases today, so most of the market movement will come after the US numbers are published. Until then, the pair may continue trading within yesterday's sideways channel. Intraday traders should diligently monitor news feeds, including not only economic, but also political and social events that may affect investor sentiment. While waiting for the US data release, a range-trading strategy seems reasonable, but remember the importance of stop-loss and take-profit orders—and prompt position adjustments as new information comes in. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to buy GBP today at the entry area around 1.3531 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3553 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3553, I'll exit my longs and open a short for a move of 30–35 pips back in the opposite direction. A strong rally for GBP today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above zero and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Also plan to buy GBP if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3518 level with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This should limit the downside and lead to a reversal, targeting 1.3531 and 1.3553.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to sell GBP today after a break below 1.3518 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick drop. The key target for sellers will be 1.3495, where I'll exit shorts and immediately look to buy for a 20–25 pip rebound. GBP sellers could become active at any time today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to fall.Scenario #2: Also plan to sell GBP if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3531 with the MACD in the overbought zone. This should cap the upside and prompt a reversal down, targeting 1.3518 and 1.3495. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroA test of the 1.1718 level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to rise above the zero mark, which confirmed this as a valid long entry in EUR and resulted in only a 10-pip upward move. The 0.1% decline in the US Producer Price Index for August triggered a weakening of the dollar and, consequently, a strengthening of the euro. This development came as a surprise to many and forced analysts to reconsider their outlook on the Fed's future monetary policy. However, a major risk asset rally did not materialize—indicating that FX markets remain volatile and uncertain. Market participants are closely watching economic releases from both the US and Europe, trying to anticipate the next moves by central banks. Today, the ECB will release its key interest rate decision and monetary policy statement in the first half of the day. Shortly after, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference. Although rates are expected to remain unchanged, the market's focus will be on any signals and commentary from Lagarde, which could hint at the central bank's future policy path. Investors will scrutinize Lagarde's rhetoric for clues about the ECB's inflation outlook and especially any updates due to the repercussions of Trump's trade policy; such comments may indicate the ECB's readiness (or lack thereof) to act quickly. The ECB's opinion on the current state of the European economy and risks related to geopolitics, the energy crisis, or supply chain disruptions will also be in focus. Emphasizing these risks could signal a more cautious approach to policy, while optimism would point to more resilience. Finally, market participants will be watching the monetary policy report details, especially any insight into future ECB plans. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Buy the euro today on a move to the 1.1707 area (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.1728. Exit at 1.1728 and look to sell on a reversal for a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry point. Only consider long trades after strong data! Important: Before buying, make sure MACD is above zero and just starting to rise from that level.Scenario #2: Also buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1690 area with MACD in the oversold zone. This should limit downside potential and could prompt a reversal to the upside, with targets at 1.1707 and 1.1728.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to sell the euro after a move to 1.1690 (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to 1.1664. Exit at 1.1664 and immediately look for a buy on a reversal for a 20–25 pip retracement. Selling pressure is likely to return today if data disappoints. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and starting to decline.Scenario #2: Also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1707 with MACD in the overbought zone. This should cap upside potential and may provoke a reversal down, with targets at 1.1690 and 1.1664. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Yesterday, Bitcoin managed to hold above the $113,000 level, which indicates a relatively high probability of further growth. Ethereum also posted a strong move upward. This growth is not surprising. According to reports from several expert firms, buying demand for BTC has surged in recent days, hitting a historic record. CryptoQuant attributes this to inflows of new investments and idle funds from institutional players. This surge in interest clearly shows Bitcoin's growing recognition as a legitimate asset class among large investment funds and corporations. Institutional investors, who are traditionally more conservative, are increasingly viewing BTC as a means of portfolio diversification and risk hedging—especially in a macro environment of uncertainty and inflationary pressure. The current dynamics also signal that Bitcoin is entering a new stage of maturity, where institutionals play a more important role. The further development of this trend will likely depend on the market's ability to adapt to new challenges and maintain sufficient transparency and safety for all participants. SoSoValue has also noted a very active surge in spot BTC ETF inflows, further confirming Bitcoin's strengthened position in the traditional financial sphere and expanding investor interest. ETFs allow for indirect investment in Bitcoin, bypassing technical challenges related to direct storage and management of cryptocurrencies. For the crypto market, I will continue to look to buy notable dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, aiming for sustained bullish medium-term momentum. That trend remains intact. See below for the detailed short-term strategy and conditions: BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $114,500, targeting a rise to $115,800. Around $115,800, I'll close longs and sell immediately on a pullback. Before breakout buying, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario 2: Buy from the lower boundary at $113,800 if there is no significant market reaction to a downside breakout, targeting moves back toward $114,500 and $115,800.Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the $113,800 entry area, targeting a fall to $112,300. Around $112,300, I'll exit shorts and immediately buy on a rebound. For breakout sales, confirm the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario 2: Sell from the upper boundary at $114,500 if there is no market reaction to a breakout through this level to the upside, targeting moves back toward $113,800 and $112,300. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches $4,434, targeting a rise to $4,484. Around $4,484, I'll close longs and sell immediately on a pullback. Before executing a breakout buy, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario 2: Buy from the lower boundary at $4,397 if there is no market reaction to a downside breakout, with targets at $4,434 and $4,484.Sell ScenarioScenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches $4,397, targeting a drop to $4,349. Around $4,349, I'll exit shorts and buy on a pullback. For breakout sales, confirm the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario 2: Sell from the upper boundary at $4,434 if there is no market reaction to an upside breakout, targeting $4,397 and $4,349.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Natural Gas] – [Thursday, 11 September 2025] Although there is potential for strengthening, as long as it does not break and close above 3.052, Natural Gas will return to its bearish bias because the RSI is in the Neutral-Bearish area and both EMAs are forming a Death Cross. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.160 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.095 3. Pivot : 3.052 4. Support. 1 : 2.987 5. Support. 2 : 2.944 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If #NG breaks down and closes below 2.987, it may test the next support at 2.944. Momentum Extension Bias: If 2.944 is broken and closed below, there is potential for further weakening towards 2.897. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is limited if Natural Gas suddenly strengthens, breaks, and closes above 3.160. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 3.047 EMA(200): 3.068 RSI(14) : 34.31 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight from the United States, the following economic data will be released: US - Core CPI m/m - 19:30 WIB US - CPI m/m - 19:30 WIB US - CPI y/y - 19:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, 11 September 2025] Although there is a potential for correction as the RSI is at the Neutral-Bearish level, but as long as it does not break and close below 23606.5, there is still potential for a return to the bullish bias because both EMAs are still forming a Golden Cross. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 24119.9 2. Resistance. 1 : 23974.1 3. Pivot : 23863.2 4. Support. 1 : 23717.4 5. Support. 2 : 23606.5 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the Nasdaq 100 Index manages to break through and close above 23,863.2, it will likely test the next resistance at 23,974.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 23,974.1 is broken and closed above, then 24,119.9 will be the next target to be tested.Invalidation Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX corrects lower, breaks, and closes below 23606.5. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 23864.2 EMA(200): 23762.7 RSI(14) : 44.20 Economic News Release Agenda: US - Core CPI m/m - 19:30 WIB US - CPI m/m - 19:30 WIB US - CPI y/y - 19:30 WIB US - Unemployment Claims - 19:30 WIB US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

An analyst has pointed out how Dogecoin could see a rally to $0.50, if the upper boundary of this technical analysis pattern breaks. Dogecoin Is Currently Trading Inside A Parallel Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming in the 1-day price of Dogecoin. The pattern in question is a Parallel Channel, which forms when the price of an asset observes movement restricted between two parallel trendlines. The upper line of the channel is likely to provide resistance, while the lower one support. A break out of either of these boundaries can imply a continuation of trend in that direction. There are a few different types of Parallel Channels, depending on how the trendlines are arranged relative to the chart axes. When the trendlines are slopped upward, the pattern is known as an Ascending Channel. Similarly, them pointing down results in what’s called a Descending Channel. In the context of the current topic, the variant of interest is neither of these, but rather the most simple case of Parallel Channels: a channel that’s parallel to the time-axis. This type emerges when an asset observes consolidation in an exactly sideways manner. Here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Parallel Channel that the 1-day Dogecoin price has been trading inside for the last few months: As is visible in the above graph, Dogecoin retested the resistance line of the Parallel Channel in July, but ended up finding rejection. The midway line of the channel stabilized the asset’s drawdown and since then, the coin has been moving in a tight range in the upper half of the pattern. Currently, the memecoin’s trajectory is pointing in the direction of the upper level, which is situated at $0.29, but for now, its price remains a notable distance below it. In the scenario that another retest occurs in the near future, the outcome may be interesting to watch, as it could have implications for DOGE’s value. According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency could be looking at the $0.50 mark, if its price can break past this barrier. The target is based on the fact that Parallel Channel breakouts can be of the same length as the width of the channel. From the current price of Dogecoin, a potential bullish breakout to the level would imply a positive return of around 104%. It now remains to be seen how the memecoin develops in the near future, with respect to the Parallel Channel. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.245, up more than 12% over the last week.

Although the US dollar did lose ground against risk assets, it managed to avoid a larger sell-off. This suggests traders have already shifted their attention to waiting for new, and much more important, inflation data than what was released yesterday. A sharp decline in US producer prices in August by 0.1% led to a drop in the dollar and strengthening of the euro, British pound, and other risk assets. This unexpected turn made traders reconsider their forecasts for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, and now the Fed is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates soon. Today, in the first half of the day, the European Central Bank will publish its decision on the main interest rate and the monetary policy statement. A bit later, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, markets will watch Lagarde's language and details from the policy statement very closely in search of clues about future central bank moves. In particular, traders are keen to learn how the ECB assesses the current inflation situation in the eurozone and what its outlook on further economic growth is. Special attention will be paid to the ECB's inflation forecasts for the coming quarters and next year. If the central bank raises its inflation expectations, this may signal the complete end of the rate-cutting cycle that started in the middle of last year, helping the euro rise. If the data matches economists' expectations, it's better to operate with a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is much higher or lower than economists expect, it's best to use a Momentum strategy. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuying on a breakout of 1.1728 could lead to euro growth toward 1.1760 and 1.1813 Selling on a breakout of 1.1695 could lead to a decline toward 1.1668 and 1.1630 GBP/USDBuying on a breakout of 1.3553 may lead to the pound growing to the area of 1.3587 and 1.3615 Selling on a breakout of 1.3520 may lead to the pound falling to the area of 1.3484 and 1.3451 USD/JPYBuying on a breakout of 147.50 could target 147.84 and 148.13 Selling on a breakout of 147.25 could lead to declines toward 146.90 and 146.60 Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDLook to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1708 and a return below that level Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1690 and a return above that level GBP/USDLook to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3536 and a pullback under that level Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3514 and a return above that level AUD/USDLook to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6626 and a pullback below that level Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6607 and a return above that level USD/CADLook to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3878 and a return below that level Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3859 and a return above that level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana started a fresh increase above the $220 zone. SOL price is now consolidating above $215 and might aim for more gains above the $225 zone. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $212 and $215 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $215 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $222 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend gains if it clears the $225 resistance zone. Solana Price Eyes More Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it found support near the $205 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $212 level to enter a short-term positive zone. The price even smashed the $218 resistance. The bulls were able to push the price above the $220 barrier. A high was formed at $226 and the price is consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $199 swing low to the $226 high. Solana is now trading above $215 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $222 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $225 level. The next major resistance is near the $232 level. The main resistance could be $235. A successful close above the $235 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $245. Any more gains might send the price toward the $250 level. Downside Correction In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $225 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $222 zone and the trend line. The first major support is near the $212 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $199 swing low to the $226 high. A break below the $212 level might send the price toward the $205 support zone. If there is a close below the $205 support, the price could decline toward the $200 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $222 and $212. Major Resistance Levels – $225 and $235.

Macroeconomic Report Review: There are a few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday. However, in the United States, an important August inflation report will be published, which could provoke a strong market reaction if it prints a surprise figure. Any value outside the 2.7–2.9% range would be considered a substantial surprise. Lower-than-expected inflation (relative to previous readings and forecasts) could trigger a dollar sell-off. Higher inflation would support the US currency. No important releases are planned today in the UK, Germany, or the Eurozone. Fundamental Events Review: Among Thursday's fundamental events, the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's press conference stand out. However, no major decisions or statements are expected. The ECB has reduced all three key rates to neutral and has succeeded in bringing inflation down to its target level. In the near term, the ECB has no reason to change monetary policy parameters. General Conclusions:On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs could resume their upward movement, but a lot will depend on the US inflation report. Both the euro and the pound have shown illogical declines over the past two days, so today the market may try to "restore justice." For the euro, further movement depends on fresh signals, which may form in the 1.1655–1.1666 and 1.1737–1.1745 areas. The pound sterling is currently in the 1.3529–1.3543 zone, but generated numerous false signals there yesterday. Today's movements may be just as chaotic, but with increased volatility. Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend. Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded strictly sideways with minimal volatility. There were no significant events scheduled for Wednesday, but let's recall that this week already saw the NonFarm Payrolls report and the Producer Price Index. Today, the US inflation report will be released. It also became known that the US Supreme Court reinstated Lisa Cook, whom Donald Trump fired a few weeks ago. So, the battle between Trump and the Federal Reserve continues, and the American president still cannot do anything about the FOMC's unwillingness to cut rates by 2–3% at once. Thus, the US dollar already had plenty of reasons this week to keep falling. However, the market is waiting to make its move. On the hourly timeframe, an uptrend is clearly visible, although there is no actual trendline, since there aren't two distinct extremes to draw one. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute chart on Wednesday, price action was such that it would have been better had there been no movement at all. EUR/USD traders had better luck, as there was not a single trading signal throughout the day. With GBP/USD, traders were less fortunate. The price hovered around the 1.3529–1.3543 area all day, generating one false signal after another and simply ignoring the specified levels. Novice traders might have tried to trade on the early signals, but by the US session, it was clear that there would be no decent movements. How to Trade on Thursday:On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is showing signs of resuming an uptrend, and on higher timeframes, the upward trend persists. As we have said, there's no reason to expect a medium-term rally in the dollar, so we expect further growth in the British currency. On Thursday, GBP/USD may resume its northward advance, as Tuesday and Wednesday were marked by illogical movement. It's probably not worth trading around the 1.3529–1.3543 area today, since yesterday produced a slew of false signals there. Today brings several important events, so sharp reversals and increased volatility are possible at any time. On the 5-minute chart, you can now trade around the levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. No important UK events or reports are scheduled for Thursday, but in the US, an important inflation report will be released. Also, traders may be more active during the day thanks to the ECB meeting in the Eurozone. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and without any trend. This is now the second day in a row this week that the market has shown completely illogical movements. We'll leave aside what's happening in the crypto market—there's little logic there either. Recall that on Tuesday, the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report was published. Although it didn't reveal anything new—US labor market contraction continues—it remains an important report that traders ignored. Yesterday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a price decline of 0.1% in August. We don't believe this drop in PPI will have any impact on the Federal Reserve's September decision; in any case, a more important inflation report will be released today, on which more definite conclusions can be based. Nevertheless, a formal reason for dollar weakness existed yesterday. The uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains in place, as shown by the ascending trend line. Therefore, the pair's rally could resume at any moment. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, not a single trading signal was formed, which is a good thing. As seen in the chart above, the price bounced up and down all day, with total daily volatility under 50 pips. With such moves, it was clearly best to stay out of the market. How to Trade on Thursday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has every chance to resume the uptrend that's been forming since the start of the year. The range-bound flat can be considered complete. The fundamental and macro background remains negative for the US dollar, so we still do not expect USD strength. In our opinion, as before, the dollar can only count on technical corrections. However, consolidation below the trend line could trigger a new wave of technical decline for the pair. On Thursday, EUR/USD may resume its upward move, as the trend remains bullish. However, new trading signals are needed in the areas of 1.1655–1.1666 and 1.1737–1.1745. On the 5-minute timeframe, watch the following levels: 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1292, 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1737–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908. On Thursday, the European Central Bank meeting will occur in the Eurozone, and the US inflation report will be published. Both are important events, but only formally so. No one expects a rate cut or even a promise to cut from the ECB at this point. US inflation won't affect the Fed's decision on September 17. However, both events could still trigger market reaction. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As Solana (SOL) taps the $225 barrier, Bitwise’s CIO forecasted that a bullish Q4 rally might be brewing for the altcoin if it follows Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) recipe. Solana To Follow BTC, ETH’s Recipe? On Tuesday, Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, affirmed in a new memo to clients that the recipe for strong returns has been clear over the past 18 months: “Take one part ETP inflows, add strong corporate treasury purchases, and voilà—you get big returns.” Hougan explained that BTC followed this recipe since January 2024, while ETH discovered the same formula in April 2025. “It’s no surprise that the recipe works. It’s classic supply and demand,” he stated, adding that “all the ingredients are there for an epic end-of-year run for Solana.” As the CIO highlighted, multiple issuers, including Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck, have filed to launch spot SOL exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are expected to be approved at the start of Q4. As reported by NewsBTC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced last month that it had pushed back its decision on Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary Capital’s spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for two months, pushing it to October 16, 2025, “meaning we may have multiple issuers pushing spot Solana ETPs in Q4.” Meanwhile, three major firms, Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital, recently secured $1.65 billion in cash and stablecoins to launch a publicly traded SOL-focused treasury company, Forward Industries, to purchase SOL, stake it, and generate excess return. Hougan also noted that Forward Industries named Kyle Samani, who has been among the cryptocurrency’s most consistent promoters, as chairman. To Bitwise’s CIO, if Samani can “carry the Solana message” like Michael Saylor and Tom Lee have done with Bitcoin and Ethereum, it will help drive investor demand. SOL’s Secret Ingredient Hougan pointed out that the existence of ETPs and treasury companies does not guarantee demand, adding that there must be fundamental reasons for investors’ interest in those vehicles. “Solana is an Ethereum competitor,” he asserted, “it’s a programmable blockchain designed to host stablecoins, tokenized assets, and decentralized finance applications, among other things.” The blockchain recently approved a major technical upgrade that will make it one of the fastest networks in the world. Additionally, it is also third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains and fourth in tokenized assets, recording rapid growth in this sector. Nonetheless, he argued that there’s a key difference between SOL and the two leading cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits around $2.2 trillion, and Ethereum’s is near the $530 billion mark, Solana’s market capitalization is around $120.8 billion, 1/20th the size of BTC and less than 1/4th the size of ETH. “Scaled for the size of the blockchain, a relatively small amount of flows into Solana could significantly impact prices,” Hougan explained. He detailed that Forward Industries’ $1.6 billion purchase of SOL shares would be the equivalent of $33 billion in BTC purchases, noting that this could be slightly offset by Solana’s higher annual inflation rate of 4.3%, versus Bitcoin’s 0.8% and Ethereum’s 0.5%. “The setup is still attractive,” he concluded, suggesting that investors keep their eyes on Solana in the coming months. As of this writing, Solana is trading at $222, a 5.1% increase in the weekly timeframe.

XRP price gained pace for a move above the $2.950 resistance. The price is now consolidating gains and might start another increase above $3.020. XRP price is facing hurdles and struggling to clear the $3.050 resistance. The price is now trading above $2.950 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key contracting triangle forming with support at $2.980 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to rise if it stays above the $2.9150 zone. XRP Price Eyes More Gains XRP price managed to stay above the $2.850 level and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price climbed above the $2.9150 and $2.950 resistance levels. The bulls even pumped the price above the $3.00 level. A high was formed at $3.0365 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline and the price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.795 swing low to the $3.036 high. The price is now trading above $2.950 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key contracting triangle forming with support at $2.980 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. If the bulls protect the $2.950 support, the price could attempt another increase. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $3.020 level. The first major resistance is near the $3.050 level. A clear move above the $3.050 resistance might send the price toward the $3.120 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.150 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.20. More Downsides? If XRP fails to clear the $3.050 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.980 level. The next major support is near the $2.9150 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.9150 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.880. The next major support sits near the $2.850 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.980 and $2.9150. Major Resistance Levels – $3.050 and $3.120.

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined more than 10% from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, recorded on Binance in August 2025. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that the cryptocurrency may be preparing for its next bullish wave, as miners are starting to show a structural shift in behavior. Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy – New High Ahead? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Avocado_onchain, recent on-chain data hints at a structural shift in Bitcoin miner behavior. At the same time, various other metrics point toward increasing resilience in the Bitcoin network. The analyst brought attention to the Miners’ Position Index (MPI), a metric that has historically shown sharp increases in two scenarios – before a halving when miners strategically sell their holdings, and in late stages of a bull market when they dump their holdings on retail investors. For the uninitiated, the MPI measures the ratio of Bitcoin miners’ outflows – coins sent to exchanges – relative to their one-year moving average. A high MPI indicates that miners are selling more BTC than usual – signaling increased selling pressure – while a low MPI suggests miners are holding or accumulating. However, the current market cycle shows a different trend. While some pre-halving selling was evident, the late bull market sell-offs have been noticeably absent. According to Avocado_onchain, there could be two major reasons for the lack of sell-off. First, the approval and success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may have had some influence on holders. According to data from SoSoValue, the total net assets tied in spot BTC ETFs currently stand at $144.3 billion – representing 6.5% of BTC’s total market cap. The other potential reason for lukewarm sales of BTC at this stage of the market could be the digital asset’s rapidly rising adoption as a strategic reserve asset by major economies around the world. As a result, miners may be shifting from short-term gains to long-term accumulation. In addition, Bitcoin mining difficulty also recently reached a new ATH, as its growth curve developed a so-called “banana zone” of sharp increases. The surge in mining difficulty reflects rising participation in the Bitcoin network, in addition to strengthening its security. Opinion On BTC Is Split While the miners appear to be holding BTC for the long haul, some analysts predict that the top cryptocurrency may not be out of the woods yet. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto remarked that BTC may be heading below $100,000. That said, other analysts are more optimistic about BTC’s prospects. In a recent analysis, fellow CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare stated that BTC may have another major leg up in the bull cycle. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee forecasted that BTC may surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $114,139, up 1.5% in the past 24 hours.

EUR/USD Yesterday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) data had little effect on the dollar (Dollar Index -0.01%) but notably shifted the probability of a December rate cut to 3.75% from 58.6% to 62.5%. The August PPI came in at 2.6% versus 3.1% y/y in July (revised down from 3.3%), while Core PPI showed 2.8% y/y versus 3.4% previously (revised down from 3.7%). This is quite a significant drop in the indices, but overall it was due to August's collapse in PPI from 0.7% m/m (0.9% before revision) to -0.1% m/m. Market participants generally judged that the PPI drop in August would only affect overall inflation by winter, which explains the current 62.5% probability of a rate cut by December. However, they may have overlooked a more important factor that could fully neutralize this temporary PPI dip: all of the "Trump tariffs" costs fully passed through by winter—borne by manufacturers and wholesale "border" buyers—will eventually end up with the final consumer. There's no need to wait for December: today's release of August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will likely already show inflation rising (forecast 2.9% y/y vs. 2.7% prior). By December, as mentioned, the market will have fully absorbed and felt the impact of Trump's tariffs. Yesterday, the euro's attempt at growth was halted by the daily MACD line. By day's end, the euro's price had slipped by 13 pips. The Marlin oscillator did not decline; instead, it waited for a more significant event capable of pushing the price down to the support at 1.1632. If today's CPI release cannot accomplish this, then we will have to wait for the FOMC meeting on the 17th. Also, today brings the ECB's monetary policy decision. Market expectations are neutral; no changes to monetary policy are anticipated. On the H4 chart, price is attempting to break below the MACD (1.1684). A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 1.1632. The Marlin oscillator is fully prepared for this outcome, declining in negative territory. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD On Wednesday, similar to Tuesday, the British pound managed to rise above the daily MACD indicator line, albeit only with its upper shadow. The day closed at the opening level, which is the support level of 1.3525. The declining Marlin oscillator and, likely, today's release of an increased US CPI for August (forecast at 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y a month earlier) could easily pull the GBP/USD pair below 1.3525 with consolidation under it. This would open up a target at 1.3364. If the signal line of the oscillator moves below the zero line, it will also exit the 0.0007–0.0162 range, which could accelerate the price drop. Alternatively, this may first accelerate the oscillator's fall, followed by price (Marlin is a leading indicator). On the H4 timeframe, price is consolidating around 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator has slowly reached the boundary of its downward trend. The pound is poised for its first leap, with the US inflation data being a natural trigger. The first target is 1.3470—the MACD line on this chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY pair has reversed for the second time from the upper boundary of the price channel and is now holding below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory but is hesitating in front of the zero line, viewing it as a significant barrier. This likely reflects the price's indecision in overcoming the balance indicator line, where it has lingered for a second day. Today, the market is waiting for the release of US inflation data for August (CPI). If the data supports yen strengthening, the support level at 171.32 (the first target) could be reached today. In this case, the Marlin indicator would move into negative territory, opening the way to the next target at 169.30. This is the main scenario. Alternatively, there is a chance for another return to the price channel boundary (173.64) or slightly above. On the H4 chart, the price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is showing slight growth as the price consolidates beneath these indicator lines. Market expectations ahead of today's US CPI release are restraining any major price moves. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a fresh increase from the $4,240 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $4,400. Ethereum is now eyeing an upside break above the $4,400 zone. The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,330 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,380 and $4,400. Ethereum Price Eyes Upside Break Ethereum price started a recovery wave after it formed a base above the $4,220 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,320 and $4,350 resistance levels. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,330 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair even climbed above $4,400 before there was a pullback. The recent low was formed at $4,300 and the price is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,450 swing high to the $4,300 low. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,375 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,415 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,450 swing high to the $4,300 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,450 level. A clear move above the $4,450 resistance might send the price toward the $4,550 resistance. An upside break above the $4,550 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,650 resistance zone or even $4,800 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,415 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,335 level. The first major support sits near the $4,280 zone. A clear move below the $4,280 support might push the price toward the $4,240 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,220 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,160. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,335 Major Resistance Level – $4,415

Paul Atkins, the newly appointed chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has boldly declared that “crypto’s time has come,” marking a pivotal moment in the regulator’s approach to digital assets. Atkins Declares End To ‘Weaponization’ Of Regulation Delivering a keynote address at the inaugural OECD roundtable on global financial markets, Atkins expressed his commitment to unlocking the potential of digital assets in the United States, highlighting the impact of new technologies on global finance. Atkins criticized the previous SEC approach under former chair Gary Gensler, which he described as a “weaponization” of regulatory powers that stifled the crypto industry. The Commissioner pointed out that this “enforcement-centric strategy” not only proved ineffective but also drove innovation overseas, burdening American entrepreneurs with costly legal defenses. He asserted that those days are over and that the SEC is embarking on a new chapter. The SEC under Atkins aims to establish “clear and predictable regulations” that will enable innovation to flourish. He indicated that the agency will no longer rely on ad hoc enforcement actions to set policy. As Congress works on legislation, the SEC is set to modernize its rules through what it has termed “Project Crypto.” This initiative seeks to adapt existing securities regulations to accommodate the digital asset landscape, ensuring that most crypto tokens are clearly classified as non-securities. Future Of Crypto Regulation Atkins also highlighted the need for regulatory efficiency, advocating for a minimum effective dose of regulation to protect investors without overburdening entrepreneurs with complex rules that only large incumbents can navigate. He emphasized the potential for innovation through “super-app” trading platforms that could combine trading, lending, and staking services under a unified regulatory framework. Atkins further unveiled that the Securities and Exchange Commission also plans to collaborate with other regulatory bodies to create a cohesive environment that permits the trading of crypto assets alongside traditional financial services. The regulator praised the European Union (EU) for its stance on digital assets, specifically referencing the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which he sees as a model for regulatory clarity. Atkins expressed a desire for the United States to learn from these efforts, ensuring that America remains a leader in fostering an economic climate conducive to financial innovation. In closing, Atkins articulated a vision for a future where breakthroughs in the financial industry are made on American soil, under American oversight, ultimately benefiting American investors. He welcomed the opportunity to work with international allies to enhance economic collaboration and extend the sphere of freedom and prosperity in the financial markets, including the fast-growing cryptocurrency space. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $112,500. BTC is now consolidating and might rise if it clears the $114,250 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $113,200 zone. The price is trading below $113,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $112,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $114,250 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave from the $110,200 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $111,500 and $112,500 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push the price above $113,000 and $114,000. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $112,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair traded as high as $114,270 and recently started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below $114,000. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $114,270 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $112,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $114,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $114,500 level. The next resistance could be $115,000. A close above the $115,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $115,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $116,200 level. The main target could be $118,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $114,250 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $113,500 level. The first major support is near the $112,500 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $114,270 high. The next support is now near the $112,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $111,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $112,500, followed by $112,000. Major Resistance Levels – $114,250 and $115,000.

In a wide-ranging CoinDesk interview released yesterday, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson sharpened a years-long critique of Ethereum’s long-term viability, arguing that the network’s reliance on rollups and external scaling layers has created economic incentives that will ultimately hollow out the base chain. While acknowledging Ethereum’s technical progress, he contended that “as a general-purpose, smart-contract ledger,” the project has nurtured an ecosystem that “will slowly but surely eat [it] alive.” Why Ethereum Is Doomed To Fail: Cardano Founder Hoskinson framed the core problem as one of misaligned incentives between Ethereum’s L1 and its expanding constellation of L2s. “To make Ethereum better, they’ve had to embrace layer twos,” he said. “The layer twos are not strong allies… they’re partners of necessity.” In his view, rollup teams “don’t particularly care if they’re attached to Solana or they become a layer one,” so if better economics or user growth lie elsewhere, “they could simply migrate or go multi-chain.” New applications and liquidity, he added, are already “outside of the Ethereum ecosystem,” eroding the network’s historical network effects. “So if they’re gobbling up the transaction volume and gobbling up the users and they’re gobbling up the token appreciation, if there’s a more attractive target, they could simply migrate or go multi-chain,” Hoskinson said, adding that this trend is already observable with LayerZero and Espresso. That erosion, Hoskinson argued, is set to accelerate as two external forces gather momentum. First, he described Bitcoin DeFi as a “sleeping giant” that could attract “hundreds of billions” in total value once primitives such as stablecoins, DEXs and lending are built with credible security assumptions. “When Bitcoin wakes up… its TVL will be… larger than the market cap of Ethereum,” he said, noting that sovereigns and major asset managers would likely prefer to build around Bitcoin exposure. Second, he expects large technology platforms and traditional financial institutions to enter with their own infrastructure, adjacent to public chains but not economically dependent on Ethereum’s base layer—“Microsoft… Google… Amazon… have no incentive to go boost Ethereum or deploy on Ethereum,” he said. The technological arc, in Hoskinson’s telling, also tilts away from shared-state blockchains. As zero-knowledge proofs and “proof-carrying code” mature, more computation can be executed off-chain—in secure enclaves, on devices, or within MPC systems—leaving the chain to verify succinct proofs. “Why… spend billions of dollars a year maintaining this very weak computer that’s shared and replicated,” he asked, “when you can turn it into a distributed problem that runs everywhere?” Like Microsoft missing mobile and pivoting from Windows dominance to Azure, he suggested, Ethereum may ultimately need to “pivot to a new McGuffin” to retain relevance even if it remains present in the stack. Notably, Hoskinson’s assessment was not unqualified dismissal. He credited Ethereum for “keeping up with the times,” investing in rollups and zero-knowledge technology, and building a “Goliath” ecosystem that survived early funding scares and the DAO crisis. “They’ve done some really incredible things,” he said, and he allowed that “it’s entirely possible that Ethereum could pivot… and get very good at that” new role. The nub of his skepticism is not competence but structure: in his view, the more rollups succeed, the less compelling the L1 becomes as the economic hub. The remarks reprise and elaborate on a stance Hoskinson aired earlier this year, when he said during an AMA: “I don’t think Ethereum will survive more than 10 to 15 years,” predicting that L2s would “suckle out all of the alpha.” Hoskinson’s analysis also folds into his own current bets for Cardano. He cast Bitcoin-centric DeFi as a three-rule design target—security derived from Bitcoin, fees paid in Bitcoin, and yields returned in Bitcoin—and argued that companion chains and trust-minimized bridges will be necessary to make it work. He presented Cardano’s extended-UTXO design and its privacy sidechain Midnight as infrastructure positioned to serve that market while offering selective-disclosure compliance for institutions. At press time, ADA traded at $0.89.

The GBP/USD pair once again traded quite calmly on Wednesday, which is not surprising given that only one report—the US Producer Price Index—was published during the day. Although this report triggered a strong market reaction a month ago, we warned in advance that the reaction would depend entirely on actual versus forecast data. Still, while in recent weeks both major currency pairs have not delighted traders with trending moves, that doesn't mean there's a lack of news. Most headlines, of course, are tied to Donald Trump. For example, Trump is still trying to "put out" the Ukraine–Russia conflict, but knows no method other than tariffs and sanctions to achieve his goals. Remember, Trump is highly motivated to end the war between Kyiv and Moscow, as he wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2025. Just think about it: the president of the United States makes global geopolitical decisions to obtain a personal award. Such is the reality of 2025. Maybe we should just give Trump the title of "Lord of the World" or "Tsar of All the Earth?" For the sake of "peace in Ukraine"—that is, the Nobel Prize—Trump will stop at nothing. He's willing to negotiate with Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky and also introduce tariffs against India to prevent it from buying Russian oil and gas. Simultaneously, he incites the EU to stop importing from Russia and pressures for sanctions against India and China. At the same time, Trump avoids directly confronting Russia, realizing that worsening relations with Moscow would further strengthen its ties with China and India. And together, these three countries occupy the lion's share of Eurasia. Even for America, facing such an alliance would be tough, so Trump is doing everything possible to prevent this. With Trump, the United States is once again ready to become "friends" with Russia, to do business together, to develop side by side. And everyone understands Trump's real aim isn't friendship with Russia; instead, it's to prevent Russia from allying with India and China. The situation is both absurd and paradoxical, but that's reality. Let's also not forget Lisa Cook. Trump fired Cook from her post on the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee a few weeks ago. Cook appealed to the US Supreme Court in Washington, which ordered that she be reinstated. In other words, the Court made it clear to Trump that he has not yet earned the award of being "The Arbiter of Fates" and needs to at least sometimes adhere to US law. Also, recall that two courts in the US have already ruled that practically all of Trump's tariffs are illegal. Now it comes down to the Supreme Court, where Trump presumably has a season pass by now. If the Supreme Court also rules that the president's tariffs exceed his powers, they will be officially canceled. But how to unwind the web of tariffs and trade deals signed under those tariffs is anyone's guess. One thing is certain—there won't be a dull moment over the next three years. The average volatility for GBP/USD over the last five trading days is 74 pips, classified as "average" for this pair. On Thursday, September 11, we expect movement within the 1.3476–1.3624 range. The linear regression channel's upper band is pointing upward, indicating a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator has dropped into the oversold area again, warning of a likely resumption of the uptrend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3489 S2 – 1.3428 S3 – 1.3367 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3550 R2 – 1.3611 R3 – 1.3672 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is once again trying to resume its uptrend. In the medium term, Trump's policies will likely continue to pressure the dollar, so we do not expect dollar strength. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3611 and 1.3672 remain much more relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price falls below the moving average, small shorts can be considered on purely technical grounds. Occasionally, the US currency shows corrections, but trend-strengthening for the dollar will require real signs that the global trade war is over, or other major positive factors. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very quietly on Wednesday, as it has for most of the past few months. The chart below highlights that euro volatility has rarely exceeded 70-75 pips per day. That's not low, but not particularly high either. In addition, in the last month, we've seen movements that are very similar to a sideways flat. Despite a mild upward bias and the dollar's inability to even stage a meaningful correction, the price mainly remained between 1.1597 and 1.1719. Last Friday, prices broke out of this stubborn range, but by the start of the week, they had already returned to it. And, inexplicably, they returned to this range even though Tuesday saw the release of the annual NonFarm Payrolls report, which is obviously more important than the monthly figure. For four months in a row, the monthly data have disappointed, and now the annual number has as well. However, instead of the expected dollar fall, we saw growth. Such illogical behavior suggests something is not quite right in the market at the moment. Today, another important US inflation report will be released. In our view, it will have little effect, as the Fed urgently needs to rescue the labor market. Traders—and probably the Fed itself—had hopes for the labor and unemployment reports at the beginning of September, but as we've seen, they did not pan out. Thus, the rate will be cut at the September 17 meeting regardless. Could it be cut by 0.5% at once? Today's inflation report is precisely what's needed to answer that. If, without warning, the Consumer Price Index abruptly slows for August, this will be a strong argument in favor of an immediate half-point cut. But that's only at first glance. Even then, US inflation would remain above the Fed's target, and further deceleration would be questionable given Donald Trump's ever-escalating trade war. If US inflation accelerates, or accelerates beyond forecasts, it still won't change anything. Even if inflation is sky-high, the Fed can't abandon the labor market. Most likely, we'll see the two rate cuts by year-end that have been discussed since the start of the year. It's safe to assume that markets have long since priced in these two cuts. In reality, the entire monetary easing cycle may have already been priced in, as the dollar followed a 17-year trend during 2022–2024 while US inflation was declining. This "mess" only ended with the arrival of Trump. Now, Trump himself has no interest in restoring the dollar's stability and appeal to investors. The average volatility for EUR/USD over the last five trading days as of September 11 is 68 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1650 and 1.1786 on Thursday. The linear regression channel's upper band is pointed upward, which still indicates an uptrend. The CCI indicator has dropped into the oversold area three times, signaling a resumption of the upward trend. There was also a bullish divergence, indicating possible growth. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1658 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1780 R2 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair may resume its upward trend. The US dollar continues to be heavily influenced by Trump's policies, and he shows no signs of stopping. The dollar has rallied as much as possible, but now it seems a new wave of extended decline may be starting. If the price is below the moving average, consider small shorts targeting 1.1597. As long as the price stays above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1780 and 1.1841 in continuation of the trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD pair also traded in a very strange and frustrating way for traders on both Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, there was a decline when everyone expected growth. On Wednesday, the British pound edged higher, but volatility was again near zero. The market justifiably ignored the Producer Price Index, since the Consumer Price Index will be released today, and it no longer matters much. If inflation rises rapidly, the Fed will still cut the key rate at least twice this year. What happens next year is anyone's guess. If inflation grows slowly or not at all, the odds of monetary easing at every meeting through the year-end will grow even stronger, which are already high. Thus, the inflation report can provoke a slight dollar rally if the actual figure comes in below the forecast. The British pound still faces no significant problems and is barely correcting. The lack of upward movement on Tuesday and Wednesday may look strange, but the price cannot move in just one direction forever, even with such seemingly strong macro and fundamental support. In the 5-minute timeframe, GBP's moves were no better than the euro's. The price ignored levels all day, remaining within the 1.3525–1.3548 area. Volatility was 50 pips. No clear signals were formed—even during the European session. COT Report COT reports for the British pound show that in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has constantly shifted. The red and blue lines—representing commercial and non-commercial net positions—constantly cross and, in most cases, are close to zero. Right now, they are at about the same level, which indicates roughly equal positions for buying and selling. The dollar continues to decline due to Trump's policies, making demand from market makers for the pound sterling less significant at this time. The trade war will continue in some form for a long while. The Fed will cut rates anyway in the coming year. Dollar demand, one way or another, will fall. According to the latest pound sterling report, the "Non-commercial" group opened 600 BUY contracts and 1,800 SELL contracts. Thus, the net non-commercial position decreased by 1,800 contracts during the week. GBP surged in 2025, but it's crucial to note that the primary factor was Trump's policy. As soon as that factor is neutralized, the dollar may rise again, but when is anyone's guess. No matter how fast or slow net positioning in the pound grows or falls, it's the dollar that keeps dropping—and usually at a faster rate. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis In the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is ready to form a new upward trend. The fundamental and macro background hasn't changed in recent weeks, so there's still no reason to expect a medium-term dollar rally. There's no trendline right now, though an upward tendency is clear. The market isn't rushing to buy GBP/USD, but realistically, it doesn't have much of a choice. For September 11, we highlight these important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3525–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Senkou Span B (1.3441) and Kijun-sen (1.3502) lines can also provide signals. Set your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 20 pips in your favor. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, so consider that when determining signals. No significant UK news is planned for Thursday, but the US will release an important (in headline terms) inflation report. This report can provoke a market reaction if the result is highly unexpected, but it won't affect the Fed policy decision at the September meeting. Trading RecommendationsWe believe that a new round of growth may begin on Thursday, but much depends on the character of the US inflation report in the afternoon. A dollar rally (pair decline) cannot be completely ruled out. Clear, precise signals are necessary for market entry after the choppy, flat market seen on Wednesday. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD pair posted completely illogical moves on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, following the release of the annual NonFarm Payrolls report (which, unsurprisingly, disappointed), the US dollar rose. Then on Wednesday, when the dollar had every chance to fall again, there was no decline in the US currency—even though the Producer Price Index showed a drop of 0.1%. Historically, the PPI figure is usually around 0.2–0.3%. The slowdown could indicate simply a correction after the previous month's surge (when prices rose by 0.9%), as well as the minimal impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation. However, low inflation still (potentially) implies an even more dovish attitude from the Fed at next week's meeting. Tomorrow brings the ECB meeting, but traders shouldn't expect much. The ECB has effectively ended its rate-cutting cycle, having achieved its target inflation level. Given that global trade wars may slightly accelerate inflation in the near term, even within the EU, the central bank is unlikely to cut rates or signal a decrease soon. Again, this works in the euro's favor. Thus, we continue to expect only further growth from the single currency. On the 5M timeframe, there was a total flat market and low volatility yesterday. There was no sense in trading, even though traders might have tried to trade the initial signals near the critical line. But by the US session, it became clear that there would be no real moves or solid signals. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 2. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time, and bears only tenuously took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump became the US president, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the US dollar's decline will continue, but current world events point precisely in that direction. We still see no fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, but there remain plenty of reasons for the dollar to decline. The global downtrend remains intact, but does it matter where the price has moved over the last 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may go up again, but recent events show that the trade war will continue in one form or another. A potential loss of Fed independence is yet another strong pressure factor on the US currency. The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines still shows a bullish tendency. During the last reporting week, long positions from the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 2,700, while shorts increased by 700. The net position for the week thus decreased by 3,400, which is an insignificant change. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly chart, EUR/USD took the first step toward forming a new upward trend, but the market has been in a sideways flat for several weeks since. Formally, we now see a new upward trend developing, as shown by the trendline. However, the pair still spends most of its time in the 1.1615–1.1750 range. There are still plenty of negative factors for the dollar, and even this week, it could have fallen practically every day. For September 11, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1660) and Kijun-sen (1.1706) Ichimoku lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move intraday, which should be considered when identifying signals. Don't forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction to avoid potential losses in case of a false signal. On Thursday, the ECB decision will be announced in the EU, and the US will publish inflation data. Neither is expected to produce any shockwaves. Current inflation is already unlikely to influence the Fed's September 17 rate decision. Trading RecommendationsOn Thursday, the price may finally resume its upward movement, in line with the current trend, fundamentals, and macroeconomic background. Decline is possible only if the ECB maintains a dovish tone or if US inflation is low. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com