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Bitcoin once again failed to hold near the $124,000 level, after which it quickly pulled back downward, returning to where it had started the day. Ethereum also came under pressure. Yesterday, it was announced that Luxembourg became the first EU country to invest 1% of its sovereign wealth fund in a Bitcoin ETF. This step will undoubtedly go down in history as a precedent signaling a new era in how state financial institutions perceive cryptocurrency. Once viewed as a high-risk asset, Bitcoin and its counterparts are now gradually gaining the trust of those managing public finances. Luxembourg's decision is not just a matter of portfolio diversification—it is a bold experiment that may pave the way for other countries. The small but proud Grand Duchy has always been progressive in financial matters, and this time is no exception. A 1% allocation may seem small, but it carries enormous symbolic weight. Now all attention is focused on what happens next. Will other EU countries see this as a positive signal and follow Luxembourg's lead? Will isolated cases turn into a trend? The answers to these questions will shape the future of cryptocurrency in Europe and its role in the global financial system. In any case, Luxembourg has already written its name into the history of the crypto industry. This step is further evidence that Bitcoin is gradually entering the mainstream and is no longer just for crypto enthusiasts. Regarding intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to react to any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, counting on the continuation of a medium-term bull market, which remains intact. For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below. Bitcoin Scenario for BuyingScenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point near $122,000 with a target of rising to $123,100. At around $123,100, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory. Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary at $121,200 in the absence of a market reaction to its breakout, in anticipation of a move back toward $122,000 and $123,100. Scenario for SellingScenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point near $121,200 with a target of falling to $120,400. At around $120,400, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary at $122,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, anticipating a move down toward $121,200 and $120,400. Ethereum Scenario for BuyingScenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point near $4383 with a target of rising to $4472. Around $4472, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory. Scenario 2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary at $4326 in the absence of a market reaction to its breakout, in anticipation of a move back toward $4383 and $4472. Scenario for SellingScenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point near $4326 with a target of falling to $4230. Around $4230, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $4383 in the absence of a market reaction to its breakout, in anticipation of a move down toward $4326 and $4230. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenA test of the 152.87 level occurred when the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in a 35-pip rise in the pair. The Japanese yen remained under pressure after additional U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about inflation yesterday, preferring a more cautious position on interest rates. The market reacted instantly to such rhetoric: the yen—already influenced by the dovish political stance of the new Prime Minister—faced additional selling pressure. The future direction of the USD/JPY pair will depend on how closely aligned the views of the central bank are with those of the new Prime Minister. It is worth recalling that the Japanese central bank had been laying the groundwork for a more hawkish monetary policy, whereas the new Prime Minister supports a return to stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic growth. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Scenarios for BuyingScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 152.94 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 153.31 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.31, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and substantial pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.66 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. Price movement may continue toward 152.94 and 153.31. Scenarios for SellingScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 152.66 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.30 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip reversal from the level). It is best to sell from as high a point as possible. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.94 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and result in a downward market reversal. The expected targets are 152.66 and 152.30. What is represented on the chart:A thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought A thick green line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely A thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold A thick red line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely MACD Indicator — When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, the best option is to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price volatility. If you decide to trade during data releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you avoid using money management and trade in large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British PoundA price test at 1.3369 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3331. The British pound plummeted after additional U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed concern over inflation yesterday, favoring a more cautious stance on interest rate policy. This unexpected tightening in the rhetoric of the U.S. central bank had an immediate impact on the currency markets. Investors, who had previously hoped for a quick rate cut to stimulate the economy, are now forced to revise their strategies. The pound, which is traditionally sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy, came under intense pressure. The reason for this sharp shift in Fed sentiment lies in persistently high inflation, which, contrary to expectations, shows little sign of weakening. Fed officials fear that further monetary easing could lead to uncontrolled price growth and destabilization of the financial system. Today, there is no economic data from the United Kingdom. Therefore, in the first half of the day, the pair may show a slight recovery. After yesterday's sell-off marathon—triggered by concerns over the Fed's monetary policy trajectory and its potential impact on the British economy—this break in the news flow creates opportunities for technical correction. The absence of new macroeconomic data that could worsen investor sentiment may allow the pair to take a breather and recover some of the lost ground. However, optimism should be treated with caution. Any recovery will likely be short-term and limited. The fundamental challenges pressuring the British pound have not gone away. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Scenarios for BuyingScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3315 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3346 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3346, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip pullback from the level). Buying the pound today should be considered only within the framework of a correction. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3298 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward 1.3315 and 1.3346. Scenarios for SellingScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.3298 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3272, where I intend to exit short trades and immediately open long trades in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip move back from the level). Pound sellers will seek to extend their advantage at every opportunity. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3315 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and result in a downward reversal. Price movement may continue toward 1.3298 and 1.3272. What is represented on the chart:A thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought A thick green line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely A thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold A thick red line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely MACD Indicator — When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, the best option is to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price volatility. If you decide to trade during data releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you avoid using money management and trade in large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the European CurrencyA price test at 1.1615 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1574. Yesterday's comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials regarding the inadvisability of further monetary easing triggered a strengthening of the U.S. currency and a weakening of the European one. Today, the absence of economic data from the eurozone suggests the possibility of a short-term correction in the euro, but it is unlikely that buyers will be able to recover all of yesterday's losses without favorable news. Long-term forecasts for the European currency remain pessimistic. Constant threats of economic recession, political challenges in France, and weak industrial growth in Germany are all reasons to continue selling the euro within the downtrend. As a result, today the euro may show a slight upward correction, but this should not give rise to excessive optimism. It is important to exercise caution and monitor news from the euro area that could instantly undermine this fragile increase. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2. Scenarios for BuyingScenario 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price zone around 1.1579 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1603. At 1.1603, I plan to exit the market and also to sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. A bullish outlook on the euro is valid only as part of a correction. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1563 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This limits the downside potential of the pair and may lead to an upward reversal. Expected targets are 1.1579 and 1.1603. Scenarios for SellingScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1563 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1542, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip move in the reverse direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1579 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This limits the upside potential of the pair and may result in a downward reversal. Expected targets are 1.1563 and 1.1542. What is represented on the chart:A thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought A thick green line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely A thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold A thick red line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely MACD Indicator — When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, the best option is to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price volatility. If you decide to trade during data releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you avoid using money management and trade in large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

American Dollar Strengthens Against All Currencies The reason was the latest statements from U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who indicated that, given the current government shutdown, further reductions in interest rates would be inappropriate. Against the backdrop of budgetary turmoil in Washington, where uncertainty about the future of fiscal policy continues to grow, such rhetoric from the U.S. central bank came as unexpected and, essentially, counterproductive under current circumstances. Traders who had expected a more flexible stance from the Fed reacted by selling euros and moving into dollar-denominated assets they considered more reliable. However, the long-term consequences of this move remain unclear. The strengthening of the dollar will undoubtedly put pressure on American exporters, whose products will become less competitive in the global market. On the other hand, this same development is likely to help reduce inflationary pressure, as imported goods will become cheaper for American consumers. Today, there is no statistical data from the Eurozone, so the euro may get a chance for a slight correction. However, this potential rebound should not be overestimated. The lack of fundamental drivers does not guarantee sustainable growth. Instead, it is a matter of technical necessity—a temporary breather after a strong downward movement. Market players may try to take profits after successful euro shorts, potentially pushing the exchange rate upward temporarily. Nevertheless, the long-term prospects for the European currency remain bleak. The looming threat of recession, political crisis, and geopolitical instability creates an unfavorable environment for the euro. Any negative news from the region could again collapse the exchange rate, offsetting all attempts at correction. There is also no statistical data from the UK today, so the pound has every chance to continue falling toward new monthly lows. If data aligns with analysts' expectations, it is advisable to rely on the Mean Reversion strategy. If data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, using the Momentum strategy is recommended. Momentum Strategy (Breakout Strategy):EUR/USDBuying on a breakout above 1.1580 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1611 and 1.1655Selling on a breakout below 1.1555 may result in a decline toward 1.1520 and 1.1489GBP/USDBuying on a breakout above 1.3310 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3330 and 1.3360Selling on a breakout below 1.3295 may result in a drop toward 1.3270 and 1.3225USD/JPYBuying on a breakout above 152.90 may lead to dollar growth toward 153.20 and 153.60Selling on a breakout below 152.60 may result in dollar declines toward 152.30 and 152.00Mean Reversion Strategy: EUR/USDWill look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1583 with a return below this levelWill look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1556 with a return to this level GBP/USDWill look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3319 with a return below this levelWill look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3288 with a return to this level AUD/USDWill look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6583 with a return below this levelWill look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6555 with a return to this level USD/CADWill look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4026 with a return below this levelWill look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4004 with a return to this levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AB Token plunged nearly 99% in a matter of minutes on Binance Alpha, then staged a partial bounce that left traders shaken. According to market trackers, the token fell from about $0.0083 to $0.0000051 in roughly two minutes, wiping out almost all of its value at the low point. Trade data shows a rebound afterward, with prices climbing back toward $0.00151, though that still left the token more than 80% lower for the day. Binance Token Sudden Crash Shows Market Fragility Based on reports, the bloodbath unfolded very quickly. Trading volume spiked as roughly 573,000 AB tokens changed hands during the volatility, which pushed the 24-hour volume past $5 million. Liquidity numbers were thin by comparison: the token’s liquidity pool was reported at about $2.17 million. That gap between volume and liquidity can make markets vulnerable when large orders hit. The Likely Culprit Observers pointed to concentrated ownership as a likely amplifier. Reports have disclosed that the top 10 wallets controlled more than 97% of the circulating supply, which is listed at about 81 billion AB tokens with a total supply around 98 billion. Where so much of a token sits in a few hands, a single large sell order can push the price through multiple levels with little resistance. On-chain reports showed two large sales around the event: one for 192 million AB and another for 500 million AB, moves that coincided with heavy downward pressure. Theories On What Triggered The Plunge Market watchers suggested a number of possible triggers. A big wallet dump, a market maker pulling liquidity, or algorithmic trading that amplified price swings were among the ideas floated. Because the token trades on several venues, including Bitget and Gate, contagion between platforms can happen fast. No official explanation has been released by Binance or the AB project team, and that lack of comment has left traders relying on public trades and exchange charts to piece the timeline together. On Recovery & Damage The price later retraced some losses, and some reports said it nearly reached prior levels at times. However, that bounce did not erase the hit to confidence. Many retail traders who were hit by the flash crash reported losses, and sentiment turned strongly negative in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

[Uniswap] – [Friday, October 10, 2025] Although EMA(50) and EMA(200) are still in a Death Cross configuration, but the RSI is in the Neutral-Bullish zone and a Bullish Divergence has emerged, suggesting that this cryptocurrency will strengthen. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 8.316 2. Resistance. 1 : 8.048 3. Pivot : 7.844 4. Support. 1 : 7.576 5. Support. 2 : 7.372 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Uniswap strengthens and breaks out and closes above 7.844, it is likely to continue its upward movement to 8.048. Momentum Extension Bias: If 8.048 is broken and closed above, Uniswap will likely continue strengthening to 8.316. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if Uniswap corrects downward and breaks and closes below 7.372. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 7.849 EMA(200): 7.946 RSI(14) : 63.60 + Bullish Divergent Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there are economic data releases from the United States such as: US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 21:00 WIB US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 21:00 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Doge] – [Friday, October 10, 2025] With the appearance of the RSI indicator at a Bullish Divergent level, this cryptocurrency is expected to strengthen toward its nearest resistance. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 0.26629 2. Resistance. 1 : 0.25695 3. Pivot : 0.24910 4. Support. 1 : 0.23976 5. Support. 2 : 0.23191 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If Doge breaks and closes above 0.24910, it is likely to continue strengthening to 0.25695. Momentum Extension Bias: If 0.25695 is broken, Doge will likely continue strengthening to 0.26629. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if Doge weakens and closes below 0.23191. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 0.24839 EMA(200): 0.25190 RSI(14) : 52.53 + Bullish Divergent Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there are economic data releases from the United States such as: US- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 21:00 WIB US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 21:00 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin started a fresh decline below the $0.2550 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now correcting some losses and might face hurdles near $0.2550. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.250 level. The price is trading below the $0.2540 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.2540 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could extend losses if it stays below $0.2550 and $0.260. Dogecoin Price Attempts Recovery Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.260, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.2550 and $0.2540 support levels. The price even traded below $0.2420. A low was formed near $0.2413, and the price recently attempted a recovery wave. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.2609 swing high to the $0.213 low. However, the bears were active near the $0.2550 resistance and the Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.2609 swing high to the $0.213 low. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $0.2540 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.2550 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a recovery wave, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.2540 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.2550 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.260 level. A close above the $0.260 resistance might send the price toward the $0.2780 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.2840 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.2920. More Losses In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2540 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.2475 level. The next major support is near the $0.240 level. The main support sits at $0.2320. If there is a downside break below the $0.2320 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.2120 level or even $0.2050 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.2475 and $0.2400. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2540 and $0.2600.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how there aren’t any signs of a Bitcoin price peak yet, based on this indicator. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss Is Still At Moderate Levels In a new post on X, CryptoQuant has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss. This indicator tells us about whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a net profit or loss. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token being spent to see what price it was moved at before this. If this previous selling price for any coin was less than the spot price it’s now being transacted at, then the token’s sale is assumed to be leading to the realization of some net profit. The degree of profit realized is naturally equal to the difference between the two prices. In tokens of the opposite case (that is, the last price is higher than the latest spot BTC value), the sale realizes a loss instead. In the context of the current discussion, the version of the Net Realized/Profit Loss that’s of interest is specifically the 1-year sum, denominated in BTC. Below is the chart for the metric that shows how its value has fluctuated over the past few years. From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss witnessed an uptrend in 2024 and reached a high of 5.1 million BTC in January 2025. This suggests that the market took part in a significant amount of profit-taking that year. After the January peak, however, the metric reversed course and started going down instead. This decline in profit realization was a result of the bearish price action that the cryptocurrency faced in the first few months of the year. After bullish winds returned for the cryptocurrency, though, the Net Realized Profit/Loss once again began to move up. This upward trajectory has naturally continued alongside BTC’s latest rally to a new all-time high (ATH) and the indicator has reached the 4.4 million BTC mark. Though this value is significant, it’s clearly lower than the January 2025 top. This earlier peak itself was still lower than the 7.7 million October 2021 high from the previous cycle. “Bitcoin’s rally still looks intact,” notes CryptoQuant based on the trend. “No signs yet of a price peak.” It now remains to be seen how BTC’s price action will look in the near future and whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss will observe any shift. BTC Price Bitcoin has been down since setting its ATH above $126,000, as its price currently floats around $122,700.

Macroeconomic Report Review: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, as has been the case throughout the entire current week. Essentially, the only notable economic data so far was Germany's industrial production, which once again showed extremely weak — in fact, negative — results. That's all we've really seen. Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released in the United States. It's not a particularly important indicator, and this week's market behavior has shown that traders don't care about the reasons they're buying the U.S. dollar — the same dollar that was aggressively sold off over the past eight months. Fundamental Event Review: Two fundamental events are scheduled for today. In the U.S., members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee, Musalem and Goolsbee, will deliver speeches. However, yesterday Jerome Powell spoke and clearly laid out the Fed's current stance: monetary policy decisions will continue to depend on macroeconomic data, and any further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed. It's worth noting that Powell has been repeating the same rhetoric for months. He doesn't rule out two more cuts before the end of the year, but he isn't committing to them either. What's unclear at this point is how the Fed will make its policy decision at the end of October if the government shutdown is still ongoing, since the key reports on inflation, unemployment, and the labor market have not been published in October. Key Takeaways:As we head into the final trading day of the week, both major currency pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD) may continue to trade chaotically and irrationally. So far, both have primarily been falling — and it's been very difficult to explain exactly why. That means today's declines in the euro and the pound could continue — no specific reasons are needed at this point. Therefore, EUR/USD can be traded from the 1.1571–1.1584 zone, and GBP/USD can be traded from the 1.3329–1.3331 zone. Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is based on how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The faster the signal forms, the stronger it is.If two or more false signals occur near a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate multiple false signals — or none at all. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be placed during the European session up to the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be closed manually thereafter.On the hourly chart, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is good volatility and confirmation by a trendline or channel.If two levels are located close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.After a trade moves 15-20 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.Chart Explanations:Price support/resistance levels: used as targets for entries or Take Profit points.Red lines: trendlines and channels reflecting the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) Histogram and signal line: auxiliary indicators for signal confirmation.Important news and speeches (listed in economic calendars) can significantly impact forex pairs. Use maximum caution during releases or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals.Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Building a clear strategy and applying money management are key to long-term success in trading.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Thursday Trade Review: 1H GBP/USD Chart The GBP/USD pair also continued its downward movement on Thursday — both before and after Jerome Powell's speech, in which he said essentially nothing new. Still, the market doesn't seem to need any real reasons to sell right now. Just a few days ago, the pound was showing flat-like behavior, so the irrational moves could have been forgiven. But now the pound is falling hard, and the reasons are, frankly, difficult to articulate — unless you fall back on the vague "rise in risk-off sentiment." In any case, the current movement is entirely irrational, and it's important to acknowledge that. There were no meaningful events in the UK this week, so internal issues haven't caused the pound's drop. In the first half of the week, there was also nothing that clearly triggered a decline — after all, Germany's weak industrial report and the French political crisis have no connection to the British economy. Moreover, we don't believe that the market's attitude toward the dollar or Trump's policy suddenly changed. Traders were panicking and dumping dollars for eight months — and now they are buying it back aggressively... why? The fundamental background has not changed. 5M GBP/USD Chart On the 5-minute chart, two very workable trade signals were formed yesterday. During the European session, the price bounced from the 1.3413–1.3421 zone and spent most of the day moving downward. During the U.S. session, the price broke through the 1.3329–1.3331 zone, which allowed short positions to be held. By the end of the day, profits could be locked in manually, as no buy signals were generated. How to Trade on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has started forming a new downward trend. As we've said before, there are no real reasons for sustained dollar strength, so in the medium term, we still expect the 2025 overall upward trend to resume. For now, however, the market remains in a very strange state. The British pound is falling, and there's no clear explanation as to why. You can scalp using technical setups on lower timeframes, but price movements are currently irrational across any TF. On Friday, GBP/USD may continue moving downward toward 1.3259, as the 1.3329–1.3331 area was broken. However, movement remains erratic, so upward retracements without clear reasons are also possible, and levels and zones may be completely ignored. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at levels 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3682, and 1.3763. There are no notable scheduled events in the UK for Friday. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. It's not the most important report, but currently, the market doesn't need strong data in favor of the dollar to start buying it — any excuse will do. Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is based on how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The faster the signal forms, the stronger it is.If two or more false signals occur near a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate multiple false signals — or none at all. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be placed during the European session up to the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be closed manually thereafter.On the hourly chart, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is good volatility and confirmation by a trendline or channel.If two levels are located close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.After a trade moves 20 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.Chart Explanations:Price support/resistance levels: used as targets for entries or Take Profit points.Red lines: trendlines and channels reflecting the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) Histogram and signal line: auxiliary indicators for signal confirmation.Important news and speeches (listed in economic calendars) can significantly impact forex pairs. Use maximum caution during releases or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals.Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Building a clear strategy and applying money management are key to long-term success in trading.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Thursday Trade Review: 1H EUR/USD Chart The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline on Thursday. This time, the drop began long before the day's only event — Jerome Powell's speech. The market started selling off the euro in the morning and continued to do so after the completely "flat" remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair. Powell once again emphasized that further monetary easing is not predetermined and will depend on macroeconomic data — the same thing he's been saying since early 2025. However, the market, which ignored Powell with a negative bias in the first half of 2025, is now doing the same with a positive tilt. Powell's rhetoric, in essence, hasn't changed — everything depends on the data — yet the dollar is now rising rather than falling. Why? No one knows. According to various tools, traders still expect two rate cuts from the Fed by the end of the year. We continue to view this movement as entirely illogical; the market is using any excuse to buy the U.S. dollar after having panicked and dumped it for 7–8 months straight. 5M EUR/USD Chart On the 5-minute chart, only one trade signal was generated during the U.S. session. The price broke through the 1.1571–1.1584 zone, but after that signal formed, the decline essentially ended. The signal could be traded, but the profit was minimal. How to Trade on Friday:On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair broke through the trendline multiple times, but the decline resumed under somewhat questionable circumstances. We still believe the current movement is irrational. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains negative for the U.S. dollar, meaning we don't expect any strong and sustained dollar appreciation. From our point of view, as before, the dollar can only depend on technical corrections — one of which we are currently witnessing. On Friday, the EUR/USD pair can move in either direction. There is little logic in the current movement, and there's much noise. A correction could begin after a prolonged decline — or the drop could continue, because right now the market does not need a reason to buy the dollar. On the 5-minute chart, the levels to watch for trades are: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Friday, the only mildly interesting event is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. We wouldn't be surprised if the market uses it as another excuse to buy dollars, regardless of what the actual reading is. Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is based on how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The faster the signal forms, the stronger it is.If two or more false signals occur near a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate multiple false signals — or none at all. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.Trades should be placed during the European session up to the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be closed manually thereafter.On the hourly chart, signals from the MACD indicator should only be traded when there is good volatility and confirmation by a trendline or channel.If two levels are located close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.After a trade moves 15 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.Chart Explanations:Price support/resistance levels: used as targets for entries or Take Profit points.Red lines: trendlines and channels reflecting the current trend and preferred trading direction.MACD (14,22,3) Histogram and signal line: auxiliary indicators for signal confirmation.Important news and speeches (listed in economic calendars) can significantly impact forex pairs. Use maximum caution during releases or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals.Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Building a clear strategy and applying money management are key to long-term success in trading.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.850. The price is now struggling and might continue to move down if it trades below $2.780. XRP price is slowly moving lower below the $2.850 zone. The price is now trading below $2.850 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.8350 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it settles below $2.780. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price failed to stay above $2.950 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below $2.920 and $2.90 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price tested the $2.770 zone and recently attempted a recovery wave. It is now approaching the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $2.770 swing low. However, the price could face hurdles near $2.850. The price is now trading below $2.850 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.8350 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.8350 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.90 level. A clear move above the $2.880 resistance might send the price toward the $2.950 resistance and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $2.770 swing low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.00 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.050. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $2.920 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.780 level. The next major support is near the $2.750 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.750 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.720. The next major support sits near the $2.650 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.60. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.780 and $2.750. Major Resistance Levels – $2.90 and $2.920.

Solana is experiencing sharp volatility as the broader crypto market faces growing uncertainty. While some analysts expect an expansive move across the market, others remain cautious, pointing to Bitcoin’s difficulty in breaking cleanly into price discovery as a potential headwind. Solana, which has rallied strongly in recent weeks, now shows signs of divergence between its price action and underlying network activity — a signal that often raises questions about sustainability. According to Crypto Onchain, a CryptoQuant analyst, a closer look at Solana’s onchain data reveals a negative divergence between its price and the number of network transactions. This means that while SOL’s price continues to climb, overall transaction activity on the network has dropped significantly. Such patterns are typically viewed as warning signs, suggesting that price momentum might be driven more by speculative trading than organic growth in network usage. Still, market sentiment around Solana remains mixed. Bulls argue that the decline in transaction count could stem from structural changes in the network’s voting activity rather than a true drop in user engagement. As Solana consolidates amid these conflicting signals, investors are watching closely to determine whether this volatility marks a healthy correction — or the early signs of exhaustion in its rally. Solana Activity Declines Despite Strong Price Rally According to data from CryptoQuant, Solana’s network is showing a sharp contraction in transactional activity even as its price continues to rally. The daily transaction volume has fallen from roughly 125 million on July 24, 2025, to around 64 million today, marking a drop of nearly 50%. What makes this decline particularly notable is that it has occurred during a period of strong upward movement in SOL’s price, creating a negative divergence between price momentum and network fundamentals. This divergence presents an important warning signal. In a healthy market environment, price appreciation should ideally be supported by growth in real ecosystem usage — meaning more DeFi activity, NFT transactions, and user transfers. Instead, the data suggests that Solana’s recent rally could be driven more by market sentiment and speculative enthusiasm rather than sustained organic demand on-chain. However, to understand the full picture, it’s necessary to examine which transactions are declining. Historically, 80–90% of Solana’s activity consists of “voting” transactions, which are essential for maintaining network consensus. A reduction in those does not necessarily reflect lower user activity. If, however, the drop stems from reduced DeFi and NFT interactions, it could signal weakening fundamentals behind Solana’s price surge. Analysts are watching closely to determine whether this trend represents a temporary technical adjustment or an early warning of speculative overheating. If user-driven activity continues to decline, Solana could face increased risk of a deeper correction, testing whether the recent price rally is truly sustainable. Price Analysis: Consolidation After a Strong Rally Solana (SOL) is showing signs of consolidation after an extended rally that pushed its price above the $240 level earlier this month. The chart reveals that SOL has entered a short-term corrective phase, currently trading near $221, down about 3.5% on the day. Despite the pullback, Solana maintains a bullish market structure, as it continues to trade above the key 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are trending upward — a sign that momentum remains in favor of the bulls. The $210–$215 zone stands out as the immediate support area, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Holding above this level would confirm that buyers remain in control and could prepare the asset for another attempt to reclaim $240–$250. A successful breakout above these levels could open the path toward $280, where Solana faced resistance in late 2024. However, a decisive drop below $210 could trigger deeper corrections, with potential downside targets near $190. Overall, Solana appears to be stabilizing after its recent surge, and maintaining support above the 50-day MA will be key for sustaining bullish momentum as the market awaits confirmation of the next major move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,600 and $4,500. ETH is now moving lower and might extend losses below $4,250 in the short term. Ethereum started a downside correction below $4,550 and $4,500. The price is trading below $4,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,385 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $4,250. Ethereum Price Dips Further Ethereum price failed to stay above $4,550 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below the $4,500 and $4,450 levels to enter a bearish zone. The price tested the $4,270 zone. A low was formed at $4,270 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,760 swing high to the $4,270 low. However, the bears are active near the $4,380 level. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,385 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,385 level and the trend line. The next key resistance is near the $4,450 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,510 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,760 swing high to the $4,270 low. A clear move above the $4,510 resistance might send the price toward the $4,570 resistance. An upside break above the $4,570 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,640 resistance zone or even $4,720 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,450 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,320 level. The first major support sits near the $4,270 zone. A clear move below the $4,270 support might push the price toward the $4,250 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,150 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,120. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,320 Major Resistance Level – $4,450

Dogecoin’s spot pair is grinding higher inside a well-defined structure while its BTC cross sits at an inflection between monthly moving averages—an alignment three widely followed traders say still favors upside, provided trend supports hold. Is It Too Late To Buy Dogecoin? IncomeSharks’ daily chart frames the current advance as a rising channel that has been in place since early summer. Price is riding a sequence of higher lows off the June base and is now near $0.26, mid-channel, with the lower trendline rising through roughly $0.24 and the upper boundary capping rallies in the $0.33 area. The analyst’s “squiggle” path predicted a shallow pullback to the midline followed by a drive toward the channel top, an outlook backed by an On-Balance Volume line that continues to stair-step higher along its own rising trend. In this read, $0.24 is the pivotal dynamic support; losing it would hand control back to sellers and force a reassessment of the entire channel, while holds above $0.26 reopen a test of the $0.33 line that has repeatedly capped advances. Cantonese Cat’s daily view focuses on market structure rather than indicators. The chart traces a long, clean downtrend line from last year’s lower-high sequence—connecting the $0.48 peak through multiple failure points—now broken and back-tested. Spot is fluctuating around $0.25–$0.26 after reclaiming that diagonal, which turns prior resistance into support. “It’ll never make sense to me why people kept saying that the cycle’s over and $DOGE is done when it’s making higher lows,” the trader writes, pointing to the serial HLs that have persisted since spring. If that staircase holds, the path of least resistance runs toward the prior local highs near $0.31, where supply rejected price in September; acceptance above that shelf would align with IncomeSharks’ channel targets. DOGE Vs. BTC The third lens is relative performance. Degentrading highlights DOGE/BTC as their “highest conviction trade,” adding color on why: “$doge has liquidity (so in the event I’m wrong, I don’t get raped on the way out). IF we get a breakout in BTC, Doge has historically performed extremely well. Out of all the dino coins, it is one that is also most familiar w tradfi. Seasonally, Oct is the month with the best median and decent mean returns for $doge… only negative year was in 2018.” The monthly DOGE/BTC chart shows price near 0.00000204 BTC, wedged between the 7-month moving average at ~0.00000187 BTC and the 25-month moving average at ~0.00000223 BTC. That places the pair at a decision point: sustained closes above the longer MA would mark a momentum shift back toward bulls and clear the way to test stepped resistance levels printed on the chart around 0.00000231 BTC and then the mid-range clusters near 0.00000511–0.00000791 BTC, whereas rejection keeps the cross confined to its post-2024 base. The historical blow-off high on the panel—0.00001287 BTC—illustrates the headroom if a full relative rotation develops, but the moving-average shelf is the near-term arbiter. Across all three takes, the through-line is that Dogecoin has not broken its constructive pattern. The spot chart continues to respect a rising channel with improving OBV, the longer downtrend has been breached and retested with HLs intact, and the BTC pair sits one push below a higher-timeframe moving-average reclaim that would confirm relative strength. None of the analysts claim inevitability; each view anchors risk at visible levels. For spot traders, the rising lower boundary around $0.24 is the line that converts a healthy uptrend into distribution if lost; for relative-value traders, the 7-month average near 0.00000187 BTC plays the same role. As long as those floors hold, the evidence presented by IncomeSharks, Cantonese Cat, and Degentrading says it is not “too late,” but rather still about execution around the channel midline and the MA reclaim that would validate the next leg. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.248.

EUR/USD On Thursday, the euro declined by 64 pips, ending up more than 40 pips below the support level of 1.1605. This can be considered price consolidation below the level, which means the euro has chosen the scenario of further decline before closing Monday's gap. The nearest target is 1.1495. Consolidating below this level will open the next target at 1.1392 — the low of August 1. The Marlin oscillator is declining within the area of a downward trend. Yields on U.S. government bonds and the S&P 500 stock index have been moving horizontally all week — the euro has no support for growth, so in the context of the political crisis in France, it continues to decline, either quickly or slowly, toward the specified targets. On the four-hour chart, the trend is clearly downward. This contains some signs of a slowdown in the trend. The Marlin oscillator also reacts sharply to any price increases. We expect the nearest target of 1.1495 to be reached on Monday. Consolidation above 1.1605 may enhance a corrective rise toward the MACD line near the 1.1654 mark. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD The EUR/AUD pair continues its steady movement within a descending price channel. Yesterday, the pair attempted to break below the median line of this channel. The consistent downward slope of the Marlin oscillator's signal line suggests that this median line will likely be breached soon — possibly as early as today. A daily close below this line would open the path toward the lower boundary of the channel at 1.7365. If the price exits the channel altogether, the next downside target becomes the support area at 1.7246 — the May low. On the 4-hour (H4) chart and the daily chart, the pair is also declining below both the balance line and the MACD line. The price is currently testing the median line of the price channel. The Marlin oscillator is moving to the downside, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD The British pound has settled below the support level of 1.3369. There is little remaining to reach the target level of 1.3253, which may be achieved today. A consolidation below this level will open the next target at 1.3140 — the low of August 1. The pound has no unclosed gap from the beginning of the week, unlike the euro, which allows it more freedom in its downward movement. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly correcting from yesterday's low. The situation with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the correction will soon end, as the oscillator's signal line is about to encounter resistance from the forming line and the consolidation range. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 1.3253. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, once again, without any clear fundamental basis. In previous articles, we've repeatedly pointed out the irrational nature of this ongoing trend. So, we won't repeat ourselves. If the euro currently has no strong reason to weaken, the pound has even fewer. At least in the eurozone this week, there has been a political crisis in France (which still hasn't developed into anything), and Germany's industrial production report printed a disappointing result. In our view, even these events don't justify a sharp euro decline, as the fundamentals should be continuously assessed holistically, not selectively based on individual events or data while ignoring everything else. Nevertheless, these still qualify as "formal" reasons for downward pressure. The British pound, on the other hand, doesn't even have those. Once again, we encourage traders to take a look at the daily timeframe, where the broader picture is much clearer. On the 4H chart, we see an illogical decline in the pound at a time when it should be rising. However, the daily chart shows a flat market that has lasted several months, and such a sideways movement doesn't require fundamental justification. Yesterday, GBP/USD returned to the area of its two most recent local lows, which is already a strong reason for the downtrend to potentially end here. Since markets are currently ignoring macroeconomic and fundamental factors, greater attention should be placed on technical analysis. You can identify two sideways channels on the daily chart, with the most recent (narrower) one being between 1.3333 and 1.3664. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the price has tested the lower boundary of that range and may be preparing for another upward wave. That said, predicting price behavior inside a flat market is challenging, as movements can be entirely disconnected from macroeconomic logic. Flats are periods when market makers are either accumulating or distributing positions. This often leads to irrational moves, as market makers follow their own internal strategies. If they are distributing long positions, dollar strength may continue despite the broader economic picture. If they're accumulating long exposure, an upward breakout may eventually follow — a scenario that aligns better with the supportive macro and fundamental backdrop for the pound. Thus, the best strategy at this point may be to wait for the emergence of a new local uptrend — one that remains part of the broader flat pattern. In this case, trading can resume in the direction of that trend, but traders should remain mindful of how the price behaves inside the broader channel. For example, this week the price has repeatedly bounced upward and reversed direction several times, while overall volatility remains relatively low. The average volatility for GBP/USD over the last five trading days stands at 85 pips — considered "moderate" for this pair. For Friday, October 10, we expect movement within the range of 1.3212 to 1.3382. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointed upward, signaling that the overall trend remains bullish. The CCI indicator recently entered oversold territory, once again warning of a possible bullish reversal. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3306S2 – 1.3245S3 – 1.3184Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3367R2 – 1.3428R3 – 1.3489Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is currently in a corrective phase, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies continue to exert pressure on the U.S. dollar, so we don't anticipate sustained dollar strength. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain much more relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price moves below the moving average, small short positions targeting 1.3245 and 1.3212 can be considered solely on technical grounds. From time to time, the dollar shows signs of strength (as it does now), but any trend change would require real signs of progress — like an end to the trade war or other globally positive developments. Chart Notes:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels are sloping in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (setting 20.0, smoothed) indicates short-term direction.Murrey Math Levels (support/resistance lines) are used for key movement/correction levels.Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the probable price range for the day based on current volatility metrics.CCI Indicator – if CCI moves below -250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought), a trend reversal may be nearing.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair continued a mild downward movement throughout Thursday, still largely unfounded from a fundamental perspective. To recap, the U.S. dollar currently has far more new bearish factors than it has bullish ones. Yet, for nearly two weeks now, the market has been ignoring the overwhelmingly negative fundamental and macro backdrop for the dollar. The reason for this happening is difficult to explain. We believe there's no need to force an explanation for every single move. Who could have predicted two weeks ago that the dollar would rally against the backdrop of a government shutdown, disappointing labor data, and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve? We think no one. So what's the point of trying to explain this move in hindsight? It's irrational — that's all traders need to recognize. On Wednesday evening, the Fed released minutes from its September monetary policy meeting. Unsurprisingly, those minutes changed nothing. In September, Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed might cut rates two more times before year-end — and the minutes confirmed that most FOMC members support continued easing due to the sharp slowdown in the labor market. So what's changed? Nothing. Markets were already pricing in two more rate cuts in October and December — and still are. It's worth remembering that Fed minutes are usually just a formality. Markets receive key information immediately after the meeting in the Fed's statement and press conference. Therefore, it's no surprise that the market reaction to the minutes was minimal or absent. What is surprising is that the dollar continues to strengthen. But glance at the daily timeframe, and you'll see — the U.S. dollar isn't actually showing significant upward momentum. Over the past few weeks, it has regained around 300 pips, but since the beginning of 2025, it has lost 1,700 pips overall. So this recovery doesn't even count as a minimal 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Yes, the dollar is currently rising — irrationally — but what does it change? The long-term trend remains bullish for the euro. It's also worth noting that this week featured very few important economic events. The main one was Powell's speech, which we'll address further in another section. Even if the pair's downward move continues in the short term, our broader expectation remains the same: upside potential. The daily chart also suggests a possible range-bound movement (flat) forming in both EUR and GBP. If that's the case, the price may continue swinging 400–500 pips up and down for an extended period. On smaller timeframes, this range will look like a sequence of trend segments. And in a flat market, price moves don't always require strong fundamental drivers — so don't be surprised by the dollar's seemingly illogical strength. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the past five trading days, as of October 10, is 71 pips, which is considered "moderate." On Friday, we expect the pair to move between 1.1484 and 1.1626. The higher linear regression channel is still pointed upward, indicating a broader bullish trend. The CCI indicator had entered the oversold zone, which could signal the beginning of a new bullish phase. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1536S2 – 1.1414S3 – 1.1353Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1597R2 – 1.1658R3 – 1.1719Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD pair remains in a corrective phase, but the overall uptrend remains valid across higher timeframes. U.S. dollar performance is still heavily influenced by Donald Trump's policy agenda, which shows no signs of slowing down. The dollar may be rising at the moment, but the rationale behind it is weak at best. If the price moves below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1484 based on technical analysis alone. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902, continuing the longer-term trend. Chart Notes:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels are sloping in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (setting 20.0, smoothed) indicates short-term direction.Murrey Math Levels (support/resistance lines) are used for key movement/correction levels.Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the probable price range for the day based on current volatility metrics.CCI Indicator – if CCI moves below -250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought), a trend reversal may be nearing.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its steady decline on Thursday. Interestingly, the drop didn't start after Jerome Powell's speech — the only major event of the day — but rather in the morning. It's unlikely the market was still reacting to the French political crisis for the fourth day in a row. It's becoming clear — something in the market isn't right: either market makers are manipulating price to feign the start of a downtrend, or market sentiment toward Donald Trump's policies has shifted. Either way, the pound continues falling and the dollar continues to rise. Powell said nothing new or significant in his speech, but at this point, the market doesn't seem to care about fundamentals or substance. It simply needs an excuse to buy dollars. On Monday and Tuesday, that excuse was France. On Wednesday, it was Germany's weak industrial production report. On Thursday, it was Powell's speech. And it doesn't matter that the first two events had absolutely nothing to do with the British pound. From a technical point of view, the downtrend has resumed — no doubt about it. There's no active trendline at the moment, but traders can use EUR's trendline as a rough guide, since GBP/USD appears to be falling "not by its own will." That is, it seems to be pulled down alongside the euro, regardless of whether there's a rationale for it. Recent moves remain chaotic and illogical. On the 5-minute chart, many trading signals were generated throughout the day, most of which were false. We've been saying the same thing all week: market movements are irrational, and many levels or zones are being ignored altogether. The pound is collapsing like a stone, as if the Federal Reserve had suddenly turned hawkish. COT Report Recent COT (Commitment of Traders) reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly shifting over the years. The red and blue lines — representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders — frequently cross and generally hover near the zero level. At the moment, they are nearly identical, indicating a reasonably balanced number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to fall due to Donald Trump's policy stance, which means demand for the pound from market makers is currently less important. The trade war will likely persist in one form or another for a long time, and regardless of specifics, the Fed will likely continue to lower its key rate over the next year. That means demand for the dollar should decline. According to the latest COT report for the British pound: The "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts (BUY)Closed 900 short contracts (SELL)Resulting in a net increase of 4,600 contractsThe pound has risen sharply in 2025, mainly due to one driver — Trump's policies. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could begin to rebound. But no one knows when that turning point will arrive. It doesn't matter much how quickly the pound's net positions shift; what matters is that the dollar's net positioning continues to deteriorate — and faster in relative terms. GBP/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has resumed a downward trend — yet another sign of how illogical market behavior has become. The U.S. dollar still lacks any long-term drivers for strengthening, so we expect a resumption of the broader 2025 uptrend in GBP/USD under normal circumstances. For now, it's a waiting game for panic dollar buying to subside. Important levels for October 10: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Key Ichimoku levels: Senkou Span B (1.3431) and Kijun-sen (1.3394) may also serve as signal levels. It's recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when a trade moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day — this must be considered when analyzing signals. No important events are scheduled for Friday in the UK, while in the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is set for release. This isn't a major report under normal circumstances, but given the current irrationality of the market, even a neutral reading may fuel further dollar strength. The market currently doesn't care why it's buying dollars — it just needs a trigger. Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, traders should be prepared for any movement. There are no nearby critical levels or zones to offer clear technical guidance. Market conditions remain chaotic and unpredictable. This is not the most favorable environment for traders. Caution is advised. Notes on the Illustrations:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) — levels where price movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines, carried over to the 1-hour chart from the 4-hour chart. Treated as significant reference levels.Swing highs and lows (thin red lines) — previous reversal points serving as trade signal levels.Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 in COT charts — reflects the net position size for each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout Thursday. Overall, even if we were to gather all possible factors that could support the U.S. dollar and ignore all the ones that oppose it, even then, such dollar strength would hardly be justified. The only significant event on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, the dollar began to strengthen earlier in the day, which once again highlights the illogical nature of the current market behavior. Perhaps the market has completely changed its attitude toward Donald Trump's policies and now, for example, views them positively. But from our perspective, there should be some visible positive results of those policies before one can confidently look forward to growth in the U.S. economy. Now back to Powell's speech — the Fed Chair hardly touched on monetary policy and gave no clear signals about easing at the next meeting. What does this change? Nothing. The absence of comments on monetary policy doesn't mean that it won't happen or that the Fed has abandoned the dovish scenario. Still, the market, for some reason, is buying the dollar regardless of justification. It sounds strange in 2025, but this is the objective reality. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed. First, the pair attempted a slight rebound from the 1.1604–1.1615 area, followed by a breakout of this zone. The first signal turned out to be false, while the second was profitable. On the 1-hour chart, a descending trendline has formed, giving traders a technical reference. Despite the fundamentally ungrounded drop in the pair, a potential trend reversal can be assessed by observing whether the price breaks through the trendline. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for quite some time. Bears briefly took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost their advantage. Ever since Trump began his second term as president, only the U.S. dollar has been falling. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, but current global developments point to that scenario. We still see no strong fundamental factors for euro strength, but plenty of reasons remain for further dollar weakness. The global downtrend remains intact — but what's the point of looking back 17 years to see where price once moved? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may strengthen again. But recent events suggest that this war will persist in one form or another. A potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The position of the red and blue indicator lines still suggests the bullish trend is intact. During the most recent reporting week: Long positions by the Non-commercial group fell by 800 contractsShort positions increased by 2,600 contractsAs a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts.EUR/USD 1H Analysis On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to develop a downward trend. While we still don't see any solid reasons for the dollar's rally, the price continues to break through one support zone after another. We consider the pair's decline irrational, but it is what it is. On the daily chart, the prevailing trend remains upward. For October 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846, 1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line at 1.1733 and the Kijun-sen line at 1.1657. Note: Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, so account for these possibilities when interpreting trading signals. Don't forget: If the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, set your Stop Loss to breakeven — this will protect against losses in case a signal fails. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published in the U.S. — the only notable event of the day. And honestly, we wouldn't be surprised if it sparks further dollar growth, because at this point, the market seems to need no reason at all to buy the greenback. Trading Recommendations:On Friday, traders can work off the 1.1534 level. A breakthrough of this level will open the way to 1.1426. A bounce will allow a correction back to 1.1604–1.1615 and toward the trendline. We would assume that today might bring an upward correction since this week's dollar rally seems totally undeserved. However, the market may very well continue buying the dollar — because right now, it doesn't even need a reason to do so. Notes on the Illustrations:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) — levels where price movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines, carried over to the 1-hour chart from the 4-hour chart. Treated as significant reference levels.Swing highs and lows (thin red lines) — previous reversal points serving as trade signal levels.Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 in COT charts — reflects the net position size for each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $124,000 level. BTC is now struggling and might continue to move down below $120,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction below the $123,200 level. The price is trading below $123,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $122,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $120,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $125,000 zone and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $124,000 support to enter a short-term bearish zone. The bears even pushed the price below $121,200. A low was formed at $119,810 and the price recently recovered some losses. There was a move toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $119,810 low. However, the bears are still active near $121,750. Bitcoin is now trading below $121,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $122,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $121,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $122,250 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $119,810 low. The next resistance could be $122,750 and the trend line. A close above the $122,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $123,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $124,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $125,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $122,750 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $120,750 level. The first major support is near the $120,000 level. The next support is now near the $118,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $116,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $115,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $120,750, followed by $120,000. Major Resistance Levels – $122,750 and $123,500.