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The Ripple XRP is quietly executing a mission of its own, transforming the global financial plumbing from the inside out. By moving beyond theory and into practical application, XRP technology is being adopted by banks, payment networks, and central institutions seeking faster and more efficient cross-border transfers. XRP As The Bridge Between Old And New Finance While most of the crypto world obsesses over price swings and short-term narratives, Ripple is quietly executing on something much larger: a structural rewrite of global finance. As Xfinancebul pointed out on X, XRP isn’t here to compete with other cryptocurrencies. It’s here to replace the old system that still underpins international payments today. Thunes and Ripple’s relationship is a prime example of this transformation in motion. Together, they connect over 130 countries and tap into more than 90% of the global foreign exchange (FX) markets, effectively stitching together a new global settlement network powered by XRP. Combined, these two powerhouses are actively unlocking real-time settlement, establishing vital liquidity corridors, and pushing enterprise-grade blockchain integration onto a global stage. Thus, the numbers are powering over $70 billion in annual payment volume, spanning multiple currencies. However, while most crypto communities have remained fixated on price charts and short-term gains, Ripple has engaged in collaboration. The firm is working directly with banks, navigating complex regulatory landscapes, and integrating with global networks to fix the speed, cost, and transparency that the SWIFT system has been struggling with. Xfinancebul highlighted that this profound utility validates everything XRP has always stood for. XRP is not just another token, but a foundation piece of digital finance that is now seeing adoption at an accelerating scale within the institutional level. The game truly changes when liquidity begins to flow seamlessly through XRP, instead of being bogged down by legacy rails. This isn’t just a minor improvement for payments, but a paradigm shift for the entire global financial ecosystem. Digital Asset That Refuses To Slow Down An analyst known as Ripple Track has also emphasized that XRP is engineered for speed, institutional trust, and a tool for future global financial transformation. Presently, that future is already starting to echo through the charts. Other XRP-related coins have been exhibiting bullish action in the last few days. After rallying from $0.04 to new all-time highs in mere days last year, XRPH is once again forming the same explosive setup. In the meantime, XRP Healthcare (XRPH), a token in the Ripple ecosystem, is coiling like a spring, with pressure building steadily, momentum rising to the surface, and the charts screaming ready to launch. “History doesn’t repeat itself, but when it rhymes out loud, the wise listen,” the analyst mentioned.

The Ethereum Foundation has introduced a new Privacy Cluster dedicated to building out privacy features across the network. This shows a clear push to make privacy part of Ethereum’s foundation rather than a secondary concern. The cluster brings together 47 specialists, including engineers, researchers, cryptographers, and coordinators. It will be led by Igor Barinov, the founder of Blockscout, who has a long history within the Ethereum ecosystem. Working Side by Side with Other Teams Rather than operating as a silo, the Privacy Cluster will coordinate closely with other Foundation groups. One of its key partners will be the Institutional Privacy Task Force, which focuses on aligning Ethereum’s privacy developments with regulations worldwide. By collaborating instead of isolating, the cluster aims to balance technical innovation with compliance. Kohaku Wallet and SDK Ready to Debut In parallel with the cluster’s launch, the Foundation is preparing Kohaku, a privacy-focused wallet and software development kit. It is expected to be unveiled at Devcon later this year. Kohaku’s goal is to give wallets built on Ethereum the ability to handle private transactions with fewer dependencies on intermediaries. Users would gain more direct control over how their information is handled. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 A Wide Range of Privacy Work Ahead The cluster’s scope covers many areas. It will focus on private payments, confidential identity systems, zero-knowledge infrastructure, and private reads and writes at the protocol level. It may develop tools for anonymous signaling, private voting systems, and stealth addresses. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Another area of interest is anonymizing RPC node behavior to prevent user metadata from being exposed. Current Weaknesses in Ethereum’s Privacy Layer Privacy on Ethereum still faces notable gaps. For example, many wallets expose IP addresses when interacting with centralized nodes. Unless users operate their own nodes or route traffic through privacy tools like Tor, this data remains vulnerable. Privacy experts have argued that improvements need to happen at multiple layers, from contracts to infrastructure, to achieve meaningful protection. Regulatory Scrutiny Shapes the Timing This new cluster arrives during intense discussions about blockchain privacy. Regulators have been increasing pressure on crypto networks, and privacy tools have become a focal point. Vitalik Buterin has previously opposed laws that would require scanning encrypted communications, framing privacy as essential to user rights. The cluster could strengthen Ethereum’s position in these debates by offering privacy features that remain compatible with regulatory expectations. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 A Signal of Where Ethereum Is Heading Creating a dedicated cluster shows that the Foundation is elevating privacy to a central priority. If the team can deliver scalable and practical solutions, Ethereum could become a leader in privacy-friendly blockchain development. The cluster’s progress will reveal how committed the network is to making confidentiality a core feature rather than an afterthought. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The Ethereum Foundation created a new Privacy Cluster to make privacy a core part of the network’s design rather than an add-on feature. The cluster brings together 47 specialists led by Igor Barinov and will work closely with groups like the Institutional Privacy Task Force to align innovation with regulation. Alongside the cluster, the Foundation is preparing to launch Kohaku, a privacy-focused wallet and SDK that aims to give users more control over their transaction data. The cluster will address multiple privacy gaps, from private payments and stealth addresses to anonymizing RPC behavior, aiming for stronger protection across layers. This initiative comes amid regulatory pressure and highlights Ethereum’s effort to lead in privacy-focused blockchain development while staying compliant. The post Ethereum Foundation Launches Privacy Cluster Initiative appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing a new proposal that aims to make spending Bitcoin as easy as swiping a debit card. Her plan introduces a de minimis tax exemption that would remove capital gains reporting for small Bitcoin transactions. By cutting out complicated tax steps, she hopes to make paying for coffee, groceries, or everyday services with Bitcoin far more practical. Breaking Down the Proposal The draft framework would exempt individual transactions under roughly 300 dollars from taxation, with a yearly cap of 5,000 dollars per person. That means people wouldn’t need to calculate capital gains every time they spend small amounts. There are limits, though. Transactions that involve converting Bitcoin to cash or that fall under business activity could still trigger reporting. Why Current Rules Get in the Way Under existing U.S. tax laws, crypto is treated as property. Every transaction counts as a taxable event, no matter how small. That structure makes using Bitcoin for routine spending a hassle. Lummis believes this change could bring Bitcoin closer to its original vision as a currency, rather than leaving it stuck as a speculative investment. She sees this proposal as part of a wider framework to modernize digital asset taxation. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Political Momentum and Familiar Faces Lummis has been here before. She has previously supported similar measures to ease tax reporting on personal crypto transactions. This new version is partly a response to pressure from industry leaders, like Jack Dorsey, who has publicly called for lawmakers to make Bitcoin easier to spend. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Lummis has made it clear she is working on the issue and has encouraged supporters to speak up in Congress. Pushback from Other Lawmakers Not everyone shares her enthusiasm. Senator Elizabeth Warren and others have raised concerns that the exemption could create loopholes or weaken tax enforcement. Critics argue that it could give crypto users unfair advantages or make it easier to avoid taxes altogether. There’s also the technical challenge of writing clear rules that prevent misuse while still encouraging legitimate spending. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 How This Could Influence Bitcoin Adoption If this exemption becomes law, it could make small Bitcoin payments far more appealing for both consumers and merchants. Wallet providers and payment apps might build in features that take advantage of the new rules, encouraging more real-world use. It may not spark immediate price changes, but it could nudge Bitcoin toward a more transactional role instead of being just a store of value. Key Signs to Watch The next steps will depend on whether this proposal gets folded into broader crypto tax legislation. Lawmakers’ reactions will set the tone for how serious this push becomes. The exact definitions and safeguards in the final bill will be critical, as will the response from payment companies and wallet providers. If it gains momentum, this proposal could help shift Bitcoin from an investment held in cold storage to something people actually use every day. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing a proposal to make small Bitcoin payments easier by removing capital gains reporting for low-value transactions. The plan includes a de minimis tax exemption for transactions under $300, with a $5,000 yearly cap per person. Current tax rules treat every crypto transaction as taxable, which makes spending Bitcoin on everyday items complicated and impractical. The proposal has support from industry figures like Jack Dorsey but faces opposition from lawmakers concerned about tax loopholes and enforcement issues. If passed, the exemption could boost real-world Bitcoin adoption, making it easier for consumers and merchants to use Bitcoin for everyday payments. The post Senator Lummis Pushes Tax Plan to Boost Bitcoin Payments appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

As the stablecoin sector sees global momentum grow, white label event management infrastructure provider Rhuna has raised $2 million in seed funding to expand stablecoin payments in the entertainment industry. Rhuna Raises $2 Million In Seed Round On Thursday, Romania-based infrastructure platform Rhuna announced the completion of a $2 million seed round, led by Aptos Labs, to continue providing on-chain payments, access, identity, and rewards infrastructure for the entertainment industry. The seed round saw the participation of Acc Ventures, X Ventures, NewTribe Capital, Keyrock, CoinarketCap Labs, FunFair, Lémanique, and other investors. Notably, Rhuna provides event organizers with a single, programmable layer for wallet-native checkout and POS, ticketing, access control, and real-time stablecoin settlement, acting as a “universal entertainment pass” at different events, powered by stablecoin settlement and on-chain identity. “Organizers can use Rhuna to issue tickets, verify access, run loyalty, accept wallet-native payments, and settle value through a secure, composable layer that feels familiar to users and verifies on-chain,” the platform explained. According to the statement, the new funding aims to strengthen Rhuna’s payments and settlement rails, expand organizer tooling and integration, and accelerate the launch of the platform’s consumer app, designed to “bring discovery, access, and wallet-native checkout into one seamless experience.” Aptos Labs co-founder and CEO, Avery Ching, affirmed that Rhuna is “bridging the gap between digital innovation and real-world experiences.” “We’re proud to support Rhuna in making on-chain payments, access, and rewards seamless and accessible for millions of users across the global entertainment economy,” he added. A Bridge For Stablecoin Payments Rhuna has already supported over 2 million users across its pilot deployments, bridging fiat payments and stablecoin settlement, and reportedly processing over $90 million in volume. Moreover, the platform’s infrastructure has powered over 165 events and major festivals, including UNTOLD, Neversea, and Kapital. The platform highlighted that more than 450,000 attendees of UNTOLD, one of the world’s top music festivals, held in Romania, used Rhuna-powered payments and access systems across the festival grounds. Sveatoslav Vizitiu, Rhuna’s co-founder and CEO, considers that “Entertainment runs on transactions and trust,” affirming that the platform aims to make every step, from the venue gate to the ride home, “verifiable, programmable, and portable so that operators run smarter businesses and fans actually own their experience.” The announcement added that the platform has also expanded across continents to power Dubai’s first mega festival, UNTOLD Dubai, which will take place in early November, and to “further validate its scalability across global entertainment ecosystems.” Vizitiu stated that the platform is entering a new phase with the expansion. “With global events like UNTOLD Dubai, we’re bringing more of the entertainment experience on-chain,” he continued, “from Buy Now, Pay Later and our upcoming consumer app, where users can create their own events, to innovative tools for organizers covering payments, mobility, ticketing, and more.”

Ethereum is trading at critical levels after a period of heightened volatility that has left traders and investors on edge. The price has been swinging between key resistance and support zones, reflecting a market torn between optimism for another leg higher and caution over potential short-term corrections. While sentiment remains divided, on-chain data paints a more confident picture behind the scenes. According to recent reports, large holders and institutions continue to accumulate ETH, reinforcing the idea that the current market uncertainty may be viewed by many as an opportunity rather than a threat. At the same time, staking activity remains consistently strong, signaling long-term conviction among Ethereum’s most committed participants. The ongoing rise in staked ETH highlights confidence in the network’s security, yield potential, and role as a foundation for decentralized finance. As Ethereum hovers near decisive price levels, the market appears to be preparing for a breakout in either direction. Whether the next move favors bulls or bears, one thing is clear — Ethereum’s fundamentals remain resilient, and the persistent accumulation by major players could serve as a powerful anchor for the next major trend once market sentiment aligns. Grayscale Stakes Ethereum: A Strong Signal Of Confidence According to Lookonchain, Grayscale (ETHE and ETH ETF) has staked an additional 857,600 ETH, worth approximately $3.83 billion, once again signaling major institutional conviction in Ethereum’s long-term potential. This move underscores the growing alignment between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure, as large-scale players continue to embrace Ethereum’s proof-of-stake model not just as an investment, but as a yield-generating and network-participating strategy. This massive staking operation carries several implications for the market. First, it effectively reduces circulating supply, since staked ETH is locked and cannot be easily sold. This dynamic strengthens Ethereum’s deflationary pressure, especially in a context where network activity and gas usage remain elevated. At the same time, the scale of this move reveals increasing institutional participation in Ethereum’s ecosystem, suggesting that the asset is being viewed less as a speculative instrument and more as digital infrastructure — a key component of the emerging tokenized economy. From a market perspective, this decision comes during a period of volatility and consolidation, where Ethereum’s price action has struggled to establish a clear direction. However, such sustained institutional staking serves as a stabilizing force, reflecting confidence that the asset’s intrinsic value continues to grow regardless of short-term fluctuations. In essence, Grayscale’s renewed staking push reinforces Ethereum’s position as the institutional cornerstone of DeFi and Web3, even as market sentiment remains mixed. If accumulation trends persist and network fundamentals hold strong, Ethereum could be preparing for a significant breakout in the coming weeks — supported not by retail speculation, but by deep, long-term capital positioning itself for the next phase of the cycle. Price Action Detail: Bulls Defend Key Support Levels Ethereum is currently trading around $4,340, showing signs of stabilization after a volatile session that saw a sharp rejection near $4,700. The 4-hour chart reveals that ETH has retraced toward its 200-period moving average, a critical dynamic support zone that often acts as a pivot point for market direction. Despite the recent dip of nearly 2%, the broader structure remains constructive, as long as bulls can maintain the price above the $4,300–$4,250 range. This area coincides with a key confluence of the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, suggesting that the current pullback could simply be a technical retest before another attempt to reclaim the $4,500 zone. A confirmed bounce from this region could set the stage for Ethereum to regain momentum and potentially retest the $4,700–$4,800 resistance range in the coming days. However, if selling pressure intensifies and ETH closes below $4,200, the market could see an extended correction toward $4,000 or even $3,850, where previous consolidation occurred. Overall, while volatility persists, Ethereum continues to display resilience supported by strong on-chain accumulation and institutional staking — factors that reinforce the broader bullish narrative despite short-term market fluctuations. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP’s performance in the ongoing 2025 bull run has become one of the most discussed topics in crypto, as the token continues to challenge the dominance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB. In a recent video shared on the social media platform X, crypto commentator Zach Rector described what he called the inconvenient truth of this market cycle: XRP is currently outperforming most of the top 50 cryptocurrencies in percentage growth since the last US presidential election and from the depths of the previous bear market. Ethereum, BNB, And Bitcoin’s Performance Rector began his comparison by pointing to Ethereum’s recovery trajectory. According to Ethereum’s price chart, investors who bought Ethereum before the most recent US presidential election have seen returns of about 89%, while long-term holders who entered during the 2022 bear market lows and are yet to sell are currently sitting on 400% gains. BNB, he said, has delivered slightly better results, with 109% returns for pre-election buyers and 527% for those who accumulated during the 2022 bear market lows. Turning to Bitcoin, Rector noted that even after breaking to multiple new all-time highs this cycle, its returns are modest compared to XRP. He pointed out that a Bitcoin purchase before the election would have yielded an 82% return, while those who entered around the bear market bottom and are yet to sell would have gained around 678% on their Bitcoin holdings. XRP Outperforming The Market It’s a fact that XRP’s price action this cycle is much better than its performance in the 2021 crypto market bull run, where its growth was hampered by the SEC-Ripple lawsuit. Therefore, Zach Rector’s main point focuses on XRP’s strength within the current market cycle. He stated that if an investor had purchased XRP at $0.50 before the election, their position would now be up 500%. On the other hand, those who bought at the bear market bottom and are still holding would have seen an extraordinary 900% gain. As such, these numbers make XRP one of the most profitable assets among the major cryptocurrencies, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB. In his words, “The inconvenient truth about the 2025 crypto bull run, and this is why people are so upset, is that XRP is still outperforming nearly all of the top 50 cryptos.” The statement quickly gained traction within the XRP community, as shown by the comments on his video posted on X. XRP price action in the past few days, however, has been majorly corrective. The price has been drifting lower toward a critical support level around $2.80, which is now an important level for bulls to defend. A breakdown below $2.8 could expose the next support at $2.72, while maintaining it could set the stage for another upward move. Even with this cooling phase, many XRP enthusiasts and analysts are optimistic. Many expect the token to break above $4 in the coming months, with some predicting that it could eventually enter double-digit territory once Spot XRP ETFs are launched in the US.

Solana (SOL) is flashing a powerful bullish setup as it forms a classic cup and handle pattern on the monthly chart. With the 1.618 Fibonacci target sitting near $425 and the monthly MACD gearing up for a golden cross, momentum is building fast. As speculation around a potential Solana ETF approval heats up, traders are eyeing what could be the start of a major breakout rally. Cup And Handle Formation Signals A Major Bullish Setup Lark Davis, a well-known crypto analyst, recently shared an optimistic outlook on SOL, highlighting a significant technical formation that could set the stage for a major rally. According to Davis, Solana is currently developing a classic cup and handle pattern on its monthly chart. This setup often signals the potential for a strong bullish breakout once the pattern completes. He further explained that the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which often serves as a key target during large upward moves, sits around $425. Adding to the bullish case, Davis noted that the monthly MACD indicator is also forming a golden cross. This powerful technical signal typically marks the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Finally, with growing anticipation surrounding a potential Solana ETF approval, the analyst believes Solana could be on the verge of an exciting and rapid upward move, one that might redefine its position in the crypto market if the pattern unfolds as expected. Swift Recovery Pushes Solana Back Into Profit Territory Crypto VIP Signal, in a recent update, highlighted a notable shift in SOL market structure following a sharp move below the $200 level. The drop triggered a wave of liquidations among high-leverage long positions, causing weak hands to be shaken out of the market. This correction, however, proved short-lived as buying pressure quickly returned, showcasing strong support and renewed bullish momentum. Following the dip, SOL rebounded impressively, allowing long positions to secure over 16% in profit from their initial entry points. Looking ahead, the analyst noted that Solana could be gearing up for a move toward the $250 resistance level, which stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls. A successful break and close above this level could open the door for additional gains and confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In terms of strategy, Crypto VIP Signal advised traders to maintain their long positions while implementing a stop-loss at breakeven to protect profits from any unexpected volatility. With bullish momentum returning to the market, careful position management could ensure traders remain well-positioned for the next potential leg higher.

Donald Trump took office for a second term in January 2025, promising to reduce the U.S. national debt, cut the budget deficit, address immigration issues, and revive American manufacturing. His campaign was powerful and full of grand promises — pledging a "Golden Age" for the American people. Nine months into his presidency, it's time to assess the early results. The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals. In the first quarter, U.S. GDP fell for the first time since 2022, but in the second quarter, it posted its strongest growth since 2023. In other words, it's too early to say definitively whether the U.S. economy under Trump is expanding or contracting. It's worth noting that global tariffs began to take effect in the second quarter — and with each passing month, more are being added. The economy's strong performance may not be due to real growth, but rather a one-off boost from increased revenue under the new tariff regime. For the first time in years, the U.S. posted a monthly budget surplus this summer. However, other indicators are moving in the opposite direction, even amid strong Q2 growth. Business activity is declining, unemployment is rising, and industrial production is slowing. Inflation has been accelerating again since the summer, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in an effort to save the job market. As a result, inflation is likely to continue rising under current conditions. The U.S. national debt continues its climb — just as it has every year. It now stands at $37.9 trillion, a new all-time high. But the U.S. debt behaves much like Bitcoin: it only goes up. To reverse the trend, it would be necessary to increase revenues and reduce spending. Trump, however, is doing the opposite — increasing both revenues and expenditures. His "One Big Bill" calls for deep cuts to healthcare and social welfare programs (as a cost-saving measure), while at the same time cutting taxes and significantly boosting defense and military spending. This policy mix makes it clear that reducing the national debt is not truly on the agenda. In October, the U.S. once again faced a government shutdown due to funding issues. Strange things are happening in financial markets — both Bitcoin and gold are hitting record highs, despite their vastly different risk profiles. The rise in gold makes sense. But Bitcoin? That's harder to explain. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks keep rising, despite growing warnings from economists that the market is "severely overheated." The U.S. dollar has been steadily declining throughout 2025. One has to wonder — could a "black swan" event be on its way to America? Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on my latest EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop, especially policy decisions from Donald Trump and the domestic and foreign agenda of the new U.S. administration. The current wave segment may extend up to the 1.25 mark. At the moment, the market is forming corrective wave 4, which may be nearing completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact, so I continue to consider only long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has become more complex. We're still dealing with an upward impulsive wave, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave formation, the overall wave structure may return to balance. However, this would result in a significantly more extended and complicated wave 4 versus wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed breakout attempts suggest the market is ready to buy on dips. A third failure may again move prices away from the recent lows. My targets for the pair remain above the 1.38 level. My Core Analytical Principles:Wave structures should be simple and clearly defined. Complex formations are harder to trade and often signal potential changes.If there's no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be successfully combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As I've already mentioned this week, the biggest current intrigue lies with the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ongoing government shutdown. I don't believe that the political crisis in France is significant enough for market participants to continue reacting to it for another week or two. In my view, the shutdown is far more important because it, for instance, deprives the Fed of crucial data on inflation, unemployment, and the labor market for September. The shutdown also results in the partial suspension of government operations and delivers a blow to the economy. Many economists already forecast a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the coming years, despite a strong second quarter, and the shutdown will only exacerbate that trend. From my perspective, the Fed is in a position where it has to take risks — lower interest rates even without fully understanding how the economy is responding to previous easing. Imagine that following the rate cut in September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated even further. In August, it rose to 2.9%, and according to some projections, it could exceed 3% year-over-year in September. So how can the Fed justify continuing to ease policy if inflation was rising even before the cut — and continues rising afterward? What I'm saying is that every upcoming Fed rate decision now looks far less obvious than the market seems to think — particularly the futures market, whose sentiment is reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool. According to this tool, the probability of a rate cut in October stands at 95%, and in December at 82%. Put simply, market participants are not even considering alternative outcomes beyond two more rate cuts. And I believe that's a mistake. Or perhaps the CME FedWatch Tool reflects a flawed market sentiment. Over the past few weeks, demand for the U.S. dollar has been growing. And if we assume the French crisis has little or nothing to do with it, then that demand is likely due to fading expectations of more monetary easing. In that light, everything looks quite logical. Personally, I highly doubt that Jerome Powell would support even one more rate cut if inflation exceeds 3%. Somewhere, there's an error in the current equation — maybe the futures market believes in easing, but the FX market, judging by its behavior, is signaling the opposite. Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on my latest EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop, especially policy decisions from Donald Trump and the domestic and foreign agenda of the new U.S. administration. The current wave segment may extend up to the 1.25 mark. At the moment, the market is forming corrective wave 4, which may be nearing completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact, so I continue to consider only long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has become more complex. We're still dealing with an upward impulsive wave, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave formation, the overall wave structure may return to balance. However, this would result in a significantly more extended and complicated wave 4 versus wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed breakout attempts suggest the market is ready to buy on dips. A third failure may again move prices away from the recent lows. My targets for the pair remain above the 1.38 level. My Core Analytical Principles:Wave structures should be simple and clearly defined. Complex formations are harder to trade and often signal potential changes.If there's no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be successfully combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Thursday, the Japanese yen continued to decline. Earlier this week, Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, emphasized that the government would closely monitor foreign exchange movements, underscoring the importance of exchange rates that reflect real economic fundamentals. At the same time, the unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race paves the way for her potential appointment as Japan's first female prime minister. Her win also fuels speculation about a more expansionary fiscal approach under her leadership. In response, traders have priced in just a 26% probability that the BoJ will raise its key interest rate at the next policy meeting on October 30 — nearly half the 60% likelihood expected as recently as last Friday. This sharp repricing has weighed on the yen since the start of the week. Takaichi's economic advisors, Etsuro Honda and Takuji Aida, have suggested that the new prime minister may allow one additional rate hike in December or January, although further policy steps remain uncertain. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation has remained at or above the BoJ's 2% target for more than three years, and the economy continues to grow. This preserves hopes that the BoJ could hike rates again before the end of the year. On the U.S. side, minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released Wednesday, showed near-unanimous agreement among members to cut rates due to concerns about labor market weakness and a more balanced inflation outlook. However, policymakers remain divided about whether one or two additional rate cuts will be necessary before year-end. Overall, the tone of the meeting was cautious, signaling the Fed's continued commitment to easing policy. The CME FedWatch Tool still reflects high market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's remaining meetings in October and December. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his proposed 20-point peace plan, including a ceasefire and the release of hostages and prisoners — a development which reduces the attractiveness of traditional "safe-haven" assets. From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, discouraging traders from opening new bullish positions. However, any pullback is likely to attract new buyers and remain shallow near the psychological level of 152.00. A break below that level could trigger technical selling, potentially pulling spot prices down toward strong horizontal support at 151.00. On the upside, the round number level of 153.00 serves as immediate resistance. A sustained move above that level would confirm a bullish continuation, pushing USD/JPY even higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The New Zealand dollar recently hit a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, sliding to 0.5731. The intraday decline was triggered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) October monetary policy decision to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points — a much more aggressive move than the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut. So the actual result surprised market participants. Moreover, the central bank has made it clear that it is open to further steps to ease monetary policy. This "ultra-dovish" move took the market by surprise and reminded traders that the RBNZ is not afraid to act boldly when needed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand really does know how to surprise the market—though this particular quality isn't necessarily a positive trait for a central bank. Poor communication often leads to heightened volatility, unsettling markets. Even so, facts are facts. For example, six years ago — in the summer of 2019 — the RBNZ shocked the markets by unexpectedly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points without any prior signal. At the time, the global financial system was feeling the weight of the U.S.–China trade war, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand became the first among major global central banks to initiate monetary easing — a move later followed by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, and several others. In 2024, a mirror scenario occurred — the RBNZ again became one of the first central banks to begin easing monetary policy. With the latest cut included, the central bank has lowered interest rates by a total of 300 basis points since August of the previous year. Notably, ahead of the previous (August) meeting, there were widespread market rumors that the RBNZ would conclude its current rate-cutting cycle since inflation had accelerated in the second quarter. Those expectations failed to materialize: the central bank not only cut rates by 25 basis points, but also clearly hinted at another reduction at one of the upcoming meetings. As a result, the scenario of a 25-point cut in October was fully priced in and reflected in market action. But, as already mentioned, the RBNZ has a reputation for surprises. Although key macroeconomic data for the third quarter (inflation, labor market, GDP) had yet to be published, the central bank decided to "move ahead of the curve" by cutting rates by a full 50 basis points. The reasons cited included slowing economic growth (weak domestic demand and lingering effects from the previous tightening cycle), weakening domestic inflationary pressures (moderate wage growth, restrained inflation expectations, and price increases mostly driven by external shocks rather than internal overheating). The central bank also pointed to a decline in business investment, with the construction sector — one of the key GDP drivers — being especially affected. Additionally, there is weakening global demand, particularly from China, a major trading partner of New Zealand (notably via dairy, meat, and other exports). By cutting the rate by 50 basis points, the RBNZ all but confirmed that another rate cut could come before the end of the year — likely at the December meeting. Interestingly, despite the clear dovish outcome of the October RBNZ meeting, the New Zealand dollar managed to partly recover against the U.S. dollar. The NZD/USD pair initially dropped sharply to 0.5731 but ended the day at 0.5780. On Thursday, buyers of the pair have already tested the 0.58 range. While they failed to hold above the 0.5800 resistance level, sellers of NZD/USD have yet to regain control. This suggests that, given the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, traders are hesitant to open large positions in favor of the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, for the sixth time, the U.S. Senate failed to pass a government funding bill — even though the shutdown has already led to mass flight disruptions across the country. Despite such obvious negative consequences, Republicans and Democrats continue to defend their positions, refusing to compromise. Moreover, according to Reuters, Trump has proposed withholding back pay for federal employees accrued during the shutdown. The situation is clearly deteriorating, with no resolution in sight, which is keeping the U.S. dollar under persistent pressure and allowing NZD/USD buyers to "hold the line." From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands on both the four-hour and daily charts. On the D1 timeframe, it is below the Kumo cloud and the Kijun-sen line, but above the Tenkan-sen line. On the H4 chart, it is between the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines. Long positions should only be considered if the pair breaks above the resistance level at 0.5810 — the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the H4 chart): in this case, the pair will be between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands lines on the H4 chart, as well as above all Ichimoku indicator lines, which will form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

"Strong economies support strong currencies." This fundamental analysis principle remains valid. While tariffs and Donald Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies are expected to weigh on U.S. GDP in 2026, the "big and beautiful" tax cut legislation will only sugarcoat the damage. In contrast, Europe is set to benefit from rising defense spending and fiscal stimulus from Germany — factors supporting the ongoing uptrend in EUR/USD. That said, no trend exists without corrections. From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. dollar dominated the Forex market, driven by the exceptional performance of the American economy and stock indexes, which considerably outshone their European counterparts. However, Trump's policies have since flipped the narrative. "Buy America" gave way to "Sell America." Still, foreign investors couldn't entirely abandon the most liquid and expansive stock market in the world — the 35% rally in the S&P 500 off the April lows is proof of that. EUR/USD Dynamics and the Ratio Between Eurostoxx 600 and S&P 500 European equities significantly underperformed in Q2 and Q3, making it hard to argue that the rally in EUR/USD is primarily driven by capital flows from North America to Europe. Instead, foreign investors have been hedging dollar risks by selling the greenback. According to Nordea, this has been the main contributor to the euro's strength. The bank forecasts a continued euro rally toward $1.26 by 2027 — or possibly sooner if the Federal Reserve adopts an aggressively dovish monetary policy. The U.S. dollar remains highly sensitive to changes in Fed funds rate expectations and corresponding moves in Treasury yields. While the current government shutdown has dulled that sensitivity to some degree, it hasn't removed it completely. Dollar Dynamics and US Bond Yields During Trump's first term, the government shutdown lasted 35 days. If history repeats itself, the Fed will go into the October meeting without seeing the September payrolls report — leaving the ADP stats as the only reference point. And the latest ADP figures suggest a sharp cooling in U.S. employment. As for the so-called political crisis in France, it is largely a temporary concern. While investors are nervous about parliamentary elections, once scheduled, such a vote would reduce uncertainty — ultimately supporting EUR/USD. The National Rally party currently enjoys high popularity and is expected to win a majority in the reshaped National Assembly, potentially forming a stable government. That outcome would be favorable for the euro. In other words, if you're afraid of wolves, don't go into the forest. The faster investors' fears materialize, the sooner the correction in EUR/USD will be over. On the daily chart, EUR/USD has returned to the convergence zone between 1.0590 and 1.0605. A successful breakout below this zone would allow for an increase in short positions initiated from the 1.0710 level. A rebound, on the other hand, would provide grounds for renewed long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin traded just above $121,000 on Wednesday, holding onto gains after a drop from a recent peak above $126,000. According to analyst Egrag Crypto, a small market move could trigger a much larger rally, building on a pattern he says has repeated across past cycles. Historic Channel Breakouts Egrag’s view is based on a three-month look at price channels that, he argues, have preceded major rallies. Based on reports, similar channel breakouts were visible before the 2013 surge to about $1,163, the 2017 rise past $19,000, and the 2020–2021 rally that pushed prices above $69,000. He says the current channel began forming in April 2022, and that a modest “blip” upward could push Bitcoin to $175,000. That target would require roughly a nearly 43% rise from $122,620. Short-term swings have ranged from $115,000 to $125,000 this week, while the present price sits near $121,900. Targets And Risks To Watch Egrag outlined a range of possible outcomes. He placed $175,000 as his primary target. He also suggested a midpoint near $250,000 and an upper scenario around $400,000. Those are ambitious numbers. They are presented as part of a longer-term view rather than promises of an immediate move. The analyst compared his Bitcoin call to a past gold forecast—he set a $3,500 target for gold that later saw prices near $4,000—using that as a reference for his forecasting approach. At the same time, on-chain data offer a mixed picture. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that 97% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit following the recent rally. That high level of realized profit suggests many holders sit above their purchase price. Some analysts interpret elevated profit as a sign that markets may pause so investors can take gains. Others point to crowded positions and rising leverage as signs that short-term volatility could increase. Reports have disclosed concern about what some call a “Suckers Rally,” a spike that tempts late buyers and is followed by a drop. Market Behavior And Investor Moves Accumulation has been visible in many wallets. Some investors reallocated gains rather than selling out entirely, which, according to reports, can indicate a controlled rotation of capital rather than a panic sell-off. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 9th Now up above 2% on the week, many Markets and assets can't ignore the ongoing rally in the US Dollar. Between resilient consumers – with, for example, Airlines like Delta giving out strong future expectations – and the Trump Administration-engineered Middle East deal agreed by both parties now, the US is getting back on its feet. Indeed, some questions are arising in concern of the strength of the US Economy. Despite some job losses and tariffs, how is it that company earnings and retail sales are still growing so much ? Some very interesting pieces convey that US Equities at record highs and filthy rich Boomers about to retire may provide a resilient US Consumption even if jobs decrease. It is one of the first known times in humanity that old generations retire as rich as boomers are now, which provides unforeseen challenges for inflation, even if the economy/employment takes a hit. About the Middle East deal, Israel agreed to the 20-Point Trump Plan to end the Gaza War and the Hamas leader agreeing to the plan just about an hour ago. Read More:How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownUS stocks sector divergence raises red flagsDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming? Back to the US Dollar, it's steep rally started to attract profit-taking flows in Equities, which corrected for the second time this week (particularly the Dow Jones). Gold also corrected above $100 from its $4,060 record highs in a sudden selloff – Similar flows can be seen in FX Markets and Cryptocurrencies. The charts are still far from bearish when looking at how much things have rallied this year. However, some concerns may arise: The 2025 trade has been about the United States losing its status as the Global leader, with the Trump Administration's efforts to isolate the US, particularly in the beginning of the year. But, the US is regaining some confidence, helping Ukraine again and resolving global conflicts. The US Dollar falling from 110.00 in January to 96.00 in July definitely assisted all assets to rally. Now, what will happen if the US Dollar goes the other way? Today might have been a snapshot of these flows. (I invite you to take a look at our most recent Dollar Index analysis!) Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in the title, the US Dollar had no pity for other assets. Every asset class is closing down, even Silver after breaking the $50 level. It is pretty logical: Almost every assets are denominated in US Dollar. When one goes up, the other tends to go down, even if logically, the relationship is not a 1 to 1. However, when such flows become trends, it tends to rock markets quite a bit. A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 9 – Source: OANDA Labs The USD rally didn't even leave any crumbs for other FX currencies. Only the Japanese Yen finishes slightly higher on the session (except against the Greenback) – A given looking at how fast it had been selling off since Monday and when looking at other asset-performance. Risk-off flows may still attract players to the Yen, at least when really nothing else is rallying. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The daily session isn't exactly over, with Fed's Daly appearing later today and Bowman speaking now. But most importantly, AUD traders will have to log in to listen to RBA Governor Bullock's speech at 18:00 ET. Tomorrow focuses almost only on North America, with a particular focus on Canadian Employment at 8:30 AM ET (expected at +5K – Expectations tend to be volatile), and the U-of-Mich Surveys at 10:00 A.M. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite consolidating around the $0.24 area for months now, a new technical analysis suggests that the Dogecoin price could be gearing up for another explosive move this cycle. A crypto analyst has identified a recurring rounded bottom pattern in DOGE’s historic price chart, suggesting a familiar setup that often precedes massive rallies. The analyst argues that a combination of technical structure and macroeconomic conditions could once again send Dogecoin flying. Macro Correlations Suggest Dogecoin Price Rally Ahead In an extensive analysis shared on X social media, crypto market analyst Osemka highlighted a recurring pattern of rounded bottom formations in Dogecoin’s long-term price chart. His study compares the meme coin’s price behaviour against the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and other altcoins collectively labelled as “ALTS (OTHERS),” illustrating how macroeconomic cycles influence crypto risk assets. The chart showcases how altcoins and the IWM help depict how the Dogecoin price historically lags behind broader market movements during early “risk-on” phases before entering its explosive bullish phase. Osemka pointed out that once IWM breaks out, altcoins typically begin to rally, yet DOGE remains dormant for a short period. However, the real price acceleration tends to occur only after the altcoin index surpasses its previous all-time high. The cyclical lag effect of the rounded bottom series positions the Dogecoin price as a late mover that benefits from the spillover momentum from IWM and “OTHERS.” The patterns mark long consolidation phases of accumulation before the analyst’s projected parabolic ascent begins. More importantly, the current market appears to align with these same pre-rally conditions, signaling that the meme coin is getting ready to “fly” but only when the macro environment shifts to “risk-on mode.” Expert Eyes Upcoming Dogecoin Price Discovery In a separate analysis, ‘Zero,’ another crypto market expert on X reinforced Dogecoin’s bullish thesis by emphasizing that a price discovery is imminent. His long-term chart, dating back to 2014, outlines three major accumulation and expansion cycles, each undergoing its own level of sideways action before a dramatic surge. The chart highlights previous explosive phases of 218x and 548x during past bull markets, with a projected 50x move, suggesting that Dogecoin is once again nearing the end of a consolidation phase and preparing for a major breakout. The green shaded area on Zero’s chart represents historical accumulation zones—the quiet consolidation periods that often precede strong price rallies.

The US government shutdown, which began at midnight on October 6, shows no sign of ending soon — and many now expect it could at least become the second-longest in US history. Despite six Democratic attempts to pass a funding bill, the Senate has repeatedly rejected proposals to reopen the government. Length of the different US Government shutdowns – Source: Statista - Reposting of the graph published in our October 2 Market Wrap The current shutdown has been ongoing for nine days already – The length of it already surpasses 14 of the previous ones, with some lasting only one day, like during the 1980s. There are, however, faint hopes for a resolution, with growing pressure from agencies, unions, and private-sector partners potentially pushing lawmakers to reach a deal in the coming weeks. Because of the ongoing shutdown, even Marco Rubio, one of the US top diplomats, will not be able to attend the Paris meeting about the future for Gaza, as peace in the Middle East comes closer. For now, the impact on economic visibility is clear. With most “non-essential” government functions halted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — responsible for the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Weekly Jobless Claims — is temporarily closed. This leaves traders and analysts without two of the most critical labor market indicators. So, where can investors look to fill the data gap and gauge the health of US employment while the shutdown persists? Let's discover this just below. Read More: US stocks sector divergence raises red flagsDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming?Nasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fearsPrivate data makes a comeback Private surveys provide valuable insight into the US labor market. While they typically move markets less than official BLS data, they’re now attracting increased attention amid the government shutdown. The most widely followed — and most market-moving — is the ADP Private Employment Report, which recently showed a decline of 32,000 jobs. It is getting more attention, particularly as it provides a seemingly more precise picture (when looking at the huge revisions from BLS data in 2025). ADP Private Employment in the past 12 months, starting to plateau – Source: ADPEmployment Other indicators help to fill the gap: the Challenger Job-Cut Report offers a monthly look at layoffs, while the Gallup Job Creation Index (released quarterly, so not very timely) gives a sentiment-based measure of hiring conditions. The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs also include employment sub-indexes, offering additional clues about job trends across sectors. Even private institutions have stepped up their data releases — for instance, a Bank of America survey showed slower job growth and rising claims despite steady wage gains, and Carlyle Group estimated that the US added just 17,000 jobs in September. While the ADP report remains the benchmark among these alternatives, this period could see new private datasets gain prominence — especially those that prove more consistent or predictive of official labor trends once BLS operations resume. Public data also isn't done yet Public data isn’t totally absent when assessing the US labor market — a few key Federal Reserve surveys continue operating even during the shutdown. These surveys offer timely snapshots of employment trends across various districts, providing indirect but valuable clues about hiring and job stability. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (the most market-moving) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ask firms whether employment and work hours are rising or falling, giving an early read on hiring momentum in the Eastern US. The Richmond Fed runs manufacturing and service sector surveys, where companies report payroll changes and labor availability. Further west, the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District surveys and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing and Service Outlooks measure shifts in employment and wages through monthly questionnaires sent to local businesses. Though these regional reports vary in scope, their employment sub-indices tend to move consistently with national labor data, making them valid proxies until the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes regular publication. Individual Fed regional presidents tend to mention these studies when they appear, which helps them assess their own decision-making during FOMC meetings. Too Long, Didn't read – What data releases should I focus on as a trader Private Surveys:ADP Private Employment (released monthly)Challenger Job LayoffsEmployment Sub-Indexes from the ISM PMI dataBank surveys like those offered from the Bank of AmericaPublic Surveys, mostly from the Federal ReserveNew York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing SurveyRichmond Fed's Manufacturing SurveyMarkets don't seem to care too much about the shutdown, at least for now US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is up 2% since October 1st, not showing the slightest care. Even legendary traders and Hedge Fund managers like Citadel's Ken Griffin repeat that the shutdown will have no material impact for Markets. Still, Markets start to react when nobody seems to care anymore, so keep your eyes open. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent weeks it has taken on a more complex form. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend section has been canceled, but a new decline in the euro will require adjustments. The upward trend construction continues, while the news background mostly supports not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's "dovish" expectations for the Fed rate are growing. The U.S. government shutdown is still in place. The market evaluates the first 7–8 months of Trump's presidency very poorly, even though economic growth in Q2 reached nearly 4%. At the moment, it can be assumed that the construction of impulse wave 5 is continuing, with targets stretching up to the 1.25 level. Inside this wave, the structure is rather complex and ambiguous, but its higher degree scale does not raise major questions. Currently, three upward waves are visible, which means the pair is forming wave 4 within wave 5, which is taking a three-wave form and may already be close to completion. On Thursday, EUR/USD declined another 70 basis points, though the pace of the euro's fall is slowing. Recall that this week, the European currency came under selling pressure due to France's political crisis, expressed by the resignation of the fifth prime minister in the past two years. In addition, German industrial production data disappointed sharply, falling back to 2005 levels. However, these factors are already priced in by the market. For euro demand to continue declining, new negative factors are required. Last night, the Fed released the minutes of its September 17 meeting, which largely reflected the alignment between market expectations and the FOMC policymakers. Fed officials are prepared to keep voting for rate cuts, as risks of labor market "cooling" remain, and the U.S. economy may slow in the coming quarters. At the same time, most officials keep in mind the consumer price index, which keeps rising month by month in response to Trump's ever-increasing tariffs. The Fed's current position is unenviable. The interest rate needs both to be lowered and raised at the same time. Therefore, the base case scenario for now remains two rounds of monetary easing at the end of 2025 and one round at the beginning of 2026. Trump wants more, Bessent wants more, and even Steven Miran believes the rate should be cut much more aggressively. However, most Fed officials are sticking to a balanced approach that does not imply aggressive easing. General ConclusionsBased on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend section. The wave pattern still fully depends on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House Administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, a corrective wave 4 is being formed, which may be nearing completion. The upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, in the near term I am considering only buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci. On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend section is clearly visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, as the corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of wave 3. But such cases do happen. It's important to remember that it is best to single out clear structures on the charts, rather than trying to account for every wave. The current upward structure is nearly unquestionable. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.There is never and can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For GBP/USD, the wave pattern still indicates the construction of an upward wave structure, but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and ambiguous form. The pound has dropped too sharply of late, so the trend section beginning on August 1 now looks unclear. The first thing that comes to mind is the complication of the supposed wave 4, which may take on a three-wave form, with each of its sub-waves also consisting of three waves. In this case, a decline of the instrument toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels should be expected. However, if this assumption is correct, then the euro will also decline, and therefore its wave structure will also undergo certain changes. At present, I do not see other alternative scenarios with a clear structure. The news background has greatly interfered with the realization of the most straightforward scenario, yet at the same time it should continue to support sellers in order for the alternative scenario to play out. And this could be problematic. It should be remembered that at the moment, much in the currency market depends on Donald Trump's policies. The market fears Fed policy easing due to pressure from the U.S. president, and Trump has introduced a new round of tariffs, indicating the continuation of the trade war. Thus, the news background remains unfavorable for the dollar. GBP/USD continues to decline, breaking the current wave structure. If the news background had suddenly reversed 180 degrees in favor of the U.S. dollar, everything would be clear. Wave patterns are an important element of analysis, but you cannot argue with global events. However, in my view, the news background for the dollar remains very weak, just as it has throughout 2025. To recall: in just the first nine days of October, the U.S. currency has faced a government shutdown, weak ISM indices in both services and manufacturing, and a completely disastrous ADP report. This week, the FOMC minutes were released, confirming the market's expectations of the Fed's willingness to continue easing. Accordingly, demand for the dollar should be declining rather than rising. Yet something is clearly not going according to plan. In my view, the Fed minutes should not be taken too seriously nor used as a basis for conclusions. They reflect the sentiment of Fed officials three weeks ago. Time passes, and the situation changes. On September 17, there was not even a hint of a government shutdown in the U.S., so this is one of those cases where much has changed in a short period of time. At present, the Fed must act blindly, and I am not sure the American regulator will want to proceed in that fashion. Undoubtedly, the probability of two or three more rounds of monetary easing in the coming months remains high, since it is clear the labor market continues to "cool." The Fed can afford at least one preemptive rate cut, and by the December meeting the shutdown will be over, allowing unemployment, inflation, and labor market data to be analyzed. But all of this remains speculation. General conclusionsThe GBP/USD wave pattern has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend section, but its internal wave structure has become unreadable. If wave 4 takes on a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize, but in this case, wave 4 will be much more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my view, the best reference point for now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this level pointed to the market's readiness for new purchases. A third failed attempt may again lead to a rebound from the lows reached. The instrument's targets still lie no lower than the 1.38 area. The higher-degree wave pattern looks nearly perfect, even though wave 4 exceeded the high of wave 1. But let me remind you: perfect wave patterns exist only in textbooks. In practice, things are much more complicated. At present, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the upward trend section. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.There is never and can never be 100% certainty in price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Bitcoin price rise is not going to slowing down, according to market expert Anthony Pompliano. The well-known investor and founder of Professional Capital Management believes the top cryptocurrency still has a long way to go. In a recent video post on X, Pompliano revealed that Bitcoin’s value will continue to grow as long as governments and central banks continue to print more money. Anthony Pompliano Links Bitcoin Price Endless Rise To Global Money Printing During an interview with CNBC, Pompliano said Bitcoin’s rally is far from over. According to him, when more money enters the system, the value of paper currencies decreases, and people begin seeking more effective ways to protect their savings. Now the best approach for investors is to work hard, earn money, spend only what is necessary, and save the rest in Bitcoin. As observed by Pompliano, this is what could drive the growth in Bitcoin prices. According to the market expert, Bitcoin could quickly become the preferred choice for people looking to protect their savings from inflation, serving as a simple ‘savings technology’ that preserves the value of their hard work. Pompliano emphasized that this idea is not about making money quickly, but about understanding how money loses value when central banks print more currency. Each dollar becomes weaker, while Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, continues to gain strength as more people use it for saving and investing. Scarcity resulting from Bitcoin’s fixed supply, combined with growing demand, could drive the Bitcoin price higher. Pompliano believes the pattern will last for many years. Bitcoin Becomes The New Benchmark In Modern Finance Pompliano also described Bitcoin as the new “hurdle rate” in modern finance. In simple terms, he said investors now compare all other assets to Bitcoin to judge whether they’re truly profitable. If a traditional asset cannot outperform Bitcoin, it is not a substantial investment. He compared Bitcoin’s growth to the S&P 500, noting that while the S&P has doubled since 2020, it has dropped nearly 90% when measured against Bitcoin. Pompliano said that many traditional financial assets, including stocks and bonds, look profitable only when measured in fiat currencies. But when compared to Bitcoin, their returns fall short. Because of this, he said, investors are left with few options: they either buy Bitcoin or risk missing out on more substantial returns. Pompliano’s comments come after the Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $126,198, followed by a drop to $124,714. Even with the slight dip, the market expert believes the rally is not close to ending. As he put it, this is not just a rally — it’s the start of a long-term shift in how the world sees money and value.

Trade analysis and advice for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 152.75 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish market. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points. The Japanese yen may lose even more ground against the dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech — especially in light of the lack of any important U.S. fundamental statistics. In the absence of macroeconomic data, market participants' full attention will be on the speeches of U.S. central bank officials. Analysts agree that any hints about keeping rates unchanged to curb inflation could trigger further weakening of the yen. Given the persistent interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan, dollar-denominated assets remain highly attractive to investors. The Bank of Japan, under the new prime minister who is clearly focused on stimulating the economy, is unlikely to raise rates by year-end, which adds further pressure on the yen. In this situation, any hawkish statement from Powell or other FOMC members could act as a catalyst for another wave of yen selling. The market will closely monitor the Fed's assessment of inflation and growth prospects to forecast the regulator's next moves. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 152.87 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 153.56 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.56, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Growth can be expected in continuation of the upward trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun rising from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 152.44 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 152.87 and 153.56 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 152.44 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.82, where I will exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure on the pair may return if Fed representatives adopt a dovish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun declining from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 152.87 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 152.44 and 151.82 can then be expected. Chart Notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade analysis and advice for trading the British pound The price test of 1.3399 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulting in a decline toward the target level of 1.3362. The pound's latest drop confirms its position in a deep bearish market, marked by yet another update of the weekly low. Investors and traders are cautiously watching developments, trying to determine where the bottom lies and when at least some recovery might begin. Economic factors such as inflation, high interest rates, and slowing growth continue to pressure the British currency. In the second half of the day, the British pound may respond with another decline to speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Michael S. Barr. Statements from key Federal Reserve figures are becoming the decisive factor in shaping expectations for the future path of U.S. interest rates — especially under the current government shutdown conditions. If Powell and other FOMC members strike a hawkish tone, this will likely strengthen the U.S. dollar. Conversely, if Powell and his colleagues adopt a more dovish stance, hinting at possible rate cuts in October even in the absence of key data, the pound may gain short-term support. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today around the entry point of 1.3410 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3454 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3454, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the reverse direction). A strong rise in the pound today can only be expected after a dovish speech from Powell.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun rising from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3369 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3410 and 1.3454 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3369 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3331, where I will exit the sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level). The pound may fall significantly in the second half of the day.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun declining from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3410 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3369 and 1.3331 can then be expected. Chart Notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade analysis and advice for trading the European currency The price test of 1.1633 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the 1.1604 level, allowing for about 30 points of profit. Despite favorable statistics showing an increase in Germany's trade balance surplus, pressure on the euro persists. The European currency continues to be influenced by a set of unfavorable factors. In particular, investors are concerned about a potential slowdown in eurozone economic growth, the uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook, and ongoing geopolitical instability in the region. Even though data on Germany's trade surplus expansion — typically considered a supportive factor for the national currency — was published, the euro showed no strengthening. This indicates that broad macroeconomic and political risks outweigh local positive signals. Investors are likely concerned about the overall stability of the eurozone economy and its implications for the euro's exchange rate. In this environment, the European Central Bank faces a dilemma. On one hand, it needs to keep inflation under control, the trajectory of which remains uncertain by year-end. On the other hand, the lack of rate-cut momentum could deepen the recession and increase pressure on the euro. In the second half of the day, attention will naturally shift to speeches by Federal Reserve representatives. Diverging views regarding the future path of interest rates are becoming increasingly noticeable. Scheduled speakers include Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Michael S. Barr. Market participants will carefully analyze every statement, looking for signals about the regulator's future policy. Internal disagreements within the Fed add to uncertainty, exerting a restraining influence on currency markets. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Buying the euro today is possible around 1.1642 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 1.1679. At 1.1679, I plan to exit the market, also selling the euro in the opposite direction with the expectation of a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after dovish remarks from Fed representatives.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun rising from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1615 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1642 and 1.1679 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1615 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1574, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from this level). Selling pressure on the pair could return at any moment today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun declining from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1642 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1615 and 1.1574 can be expected. Chart Notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crypto chartist Dark Defender says XRP’s current monthly structure has flipped back to the same high-momentum regime that preceded its 2017–2018 vertical run, arguing that a fresh impulsive wave is underway after last year’s breakout. In a detailed thread accompanying a multi-year monthly chart, the analyst urged followers to segment XRP’s history into “Left – Middle – Right,” contrasting a 2017 impulsive setup, a 2021 corrective detour, and what he calls today’s renewed continuation phase. XRP Is Repeating 2017 On the left side of the chart, Dark Defender highlights the 2017 template: candles closing above prior highs, price holding above Ichimoku Cloud support, elevated Relative Strength Index, and monthly closes above a key exponential moving average. “XRP had an impulsive wave by the end of 2017. This caused the RSI spike with a huge momentum… Volume and the speed were high, so was Momentum,” he wrote, adding that the thrust concluded a “five-wave” advance before a multi-month triangle consolidation formed. The RSI, he noted, flattened but stayed above his smoothed baseline, which he interprets as a bullish continuation signal rather than exhaustion. The middle section—anchored around 2021—marks the counterpoint. Dark Defender characterizes this period as a corrective A-B structure, with an A-wave decline from the 2018 peak and a B-wave rally that topped at $1.96. Momentum signatures weakened, and the trend lost its structural supports. “First and foremost, the structure in 2021 was a CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE,” he wrote. “The price was below the Ichimoku Clouds, hence bearish… The Triangle did not have any candles above the orange resistance… The exponential moving average… was broken downside.” He also reminds readers that “the lawsuit was ongoing,” situating the pattern in a period of headline risk and depressed trend quality. The right-hand panel is where his thesis turns decisively bullish. Dark Defender says a “CRUCIAL BREAK” he flagged on November 10, 2024 preceded a lasting upside extension that, in his view, reestablished an impulsive regime. “We announced a CRUCIAL BREAK… that XRP was going to break the ATH. Yes, 1 day before the extensive break,” he wrote, linking back to his prior post. He argues that the subsequent advance delivered the necessary checklist for trend validation: monthly Heikin Ashi closes above previous highs, price reclaiming and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a series of closes above the red EMA baseline, and a resurgent RSI profile that he explicitly compares to the 2017 impulse. “The IMPULSIVE WAVE structure has not yet been finalised,” he added, cautioning that a February 2025 pullback was corrective within a larger advance rather than the end of the move. Technically, the thread’s comparative anatomy hinges on consistent signals across timeframes and tools. In 2017 and again now, candles closed above resistance within triangle setups instead of failing at the boundary; price lived above Cloud support rather than beneath it; and the moving-average “red line” acted as dynamic support rather than resistance. Meanwhile, the RSI sequence that degraded in 2021—“medium strength… followed by the low strength”—has flipped back to what he calls a “similar high momentum like in 2017, but not in 2021.” In his summary, the 2017 segment was “entirely an impulsive 5 Wave structure,” 2021 was “Corrective and therefore Weak,” and 2024–2025 reflects a “NEW IMPULSIVE STRUCTURE” with continuation potential. The analyst’s tone is unambiguously constructive. “Considering all the above facts, I remain bullish on XRP and the broader blockchain,” he wrote. “We are entering a new era… and I think the future of Ripple and XRP is bright, following the lodestar, Polaris.” He closes with a characteristic refrain to “think positively,” but the core of the argument rests on the checklist of trend-confirmation items now in place on the monthly chart. Whether XRP ultimately reproduces the magnitude of its 2017 move will depend on how long those signals persist—monthly closes, momentum sustainability above the Cloud, and respect for the EMA baseline—yet Dark Defender’s comparative framework is explicit: the market conditions that fostered XRP’s last explosive phase are, in his reading, back on the board. While the analyst refrained from naming an explicit price target in his latest post, he had outlined one earlier this month. In an October 2 post on X, Dark Defender wrote, “We were right on XRP. RSI weekly break, weekly trend break, targets are clear. Nothing can stop what’s coming,” sharing a projected $10.47 target as the culmination of XRP’s anticipated wave-5 structure. At press time, XRP traded at $2.80.

Today, Thursday, gold continues to consolidate, although it holds above the key level of $4000 thanks to mixed fundamental data. The agreement reached between Israel and Hamas on launching the first stage of a peace plan reduces geopolitical tensions and prompts investors to lock in profits on the safe-haven asset — the precious metal, which still appears overbought. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is strengthening its weekly gains, reaching new highs since early August, which further weakens the momentum of this precious metal. Nevertheless, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve still provide some support to vulnerable gold, helping to limit its decline. In addition, risks from a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which could weigh on economic data, add some positive momentum for the safe-haven currency XAU/USD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting, published on Wednesday, revealed near-unanimous support among policymakers for rate cuts due to concerns about employment. However, opinions were divided on whether one or two rate cuts should be expected before year-end. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in October and December is estimated at 93% and 79%, respectively. Furthermore, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown — now in its ninth consecutive day — is restraining dollar growth and providing an additional boost for the commodity asset. On Wednesday, the Senate once again failed to pass budget bills to unlock funding — the sixth consecutive unsuccessful round. No visible progress in negotiations has been seen, with Democrats and Republicans continuing to blame each other for the deadlock. Moreover, staff cuts among government employees pose a threat to the U.S. labor market. From a geopolitical standpoint: on Wednesday, a senior Russian politician stated that Moscow would intercept Tomahawk cruise missiles and strike their launch positions if Washington approved their delivery to Ukraine. This fuels geopolitical tensions and helps limit gold's correction. Since there are no major economic releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, traders will focus on Jerome Powell's comments to understand the trajectory of rate cuts. This will have a decisive impact on the dollar's path and provide new momentum for XAU/USD dynamics. From a technical perspective, gold is testing the psychological level of $4000, bouncing off it. Therefore, before planning a significant corrective decline, it is worth waiting for a sustained breakout and consolidation below this level. On the other hand, momentum above $4035 could push the price higher than Wednesday's all-time high around $4059–4060. Subsequent buying above the round level of $4100 can be considered a new trigger for XAU/USD bulls. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Silver reached the $50-an-ounce level for the first time in decades on Thursday as surging demand for safe-haven assets led to a squeeze on the already-tightened London bullion market. Spot silver traded as high as $51.23 per ounce, the highest since a notorious squeeze orchestrated by the billionaire Hunt brothers in 1980, as investors continued to pile into precious metals. Click on chart for live prices. This takes silver’s year-to-date gains to nearly 70%, even surpassing that of gold, which scaled record highs 40 times in 2025 and recently hit the $4,000-an-ounce milestone. The precious metals rally comes amid rising demand for haven assets sparked by US fiscal risks, an overheating stock market and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence. These uncertainties have boosted the so-called “debasement trade” — characterized by a reallocation away from fiat currencies and into “harder” assets. “The conversation around debasement, irrespective of its realities, has ignited investors’ enthusiasm towards gold and silver to the point where regression analysis gives way to something more akin to how investors view AI or the technology sector,” said Kieron Hodgson, commodity analyst at Peel Hunt, in a note to Bloomberg. Market in deficit Behind silver’s fast rise is its dual role as both an investment asset and an industrial input. The white-colored metal is a key ingredient in solar panels and wind turbines, which collectively account for more than half of its demand. This year, demand for the metal is expected to exceed supply for the fifth consecutive year, according to Silver Institute forecasts. “I think the deficits are the slow burn,” said Philip Newman, director of consultancy Metals Focus. “Just the size of the deficits have been so remarkable, and it takes time for that to manifest itself in the price.” London constraints Meanwhile, the silver market in London has also tightened to an almost unprecedented degree, with sky-high borrowing costs for the metal. This year, fears that the US could label the metal as a critical mineral and levy tariffs spurred a dash to ship the metal into New York, drawing down inventories in London. Much of the stock of silver in London is held in vaults backing exchange-traded funds, and therefore not available to buy or borrow on the market. “I think when you look at above-ground stocks of silver in London you are looking at an increasingly small share, which is not allocated against ETFs,” Newman said. However, TD Securities recently said that this massive silver squeeze is approaching its “end game” as the London market begins to restore its liquidity. Silver volatility While silver often moves in tandem with gold, sharing its strong negative correlation with the US dollar and interest rates, it is much more volatile than its more expensive sister metal. The metal also has a stronger cult following among retail investors, who view silver as being suppressed by large banks and institutions. That impassioned following has helped drive sharp rallies in silver in 2011 and 2020, when it surged 140% in less than five months. Over the following year, Redditors jumped on board, while #silversqueeze rapidly gained momentum on social media. In 1980, it was the Hunt brothers, Texan oil billionaires and notorious speculators, whose fear of inflation and belief in the metal as a store of wealth prompted them to try to corner the global market. They stockpiled more than 200 million oz. of silver, driving the price above $50 before it crashed below $11. That makes silver one of only a small handful of markets whose record highs from the commodity spikes of the 1970s and 1980s have yet to be surpassed. In inflation-adjusted terms, silver’s new high is only worth approximately one quarter of its 1980 peak, according to Bloomberg. (With files from Bloomberg) Sponsored: Take advantage of silver’s timeless value — explore silver bullion options with Sprott Money.