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Solana is experiencing sharp volatility as the broader crypto market faces growing uncertainty. While some analysts expect an expansive move across the market, others remain cautious, pointing to Bitcoin’s difficulty in breaking cleanly into price discovery as a potential headwind. Solana, which has rallied strongly in recent weeks, now shows signs of divergence between its price action and underlying network activity — a signal that often raises questions about sustainability. According to Crypto Onchain, a CryptoQuant analyst, a closer look at Solana’s onchain data reveals a negative divergence between its price and the number of network transactions. This means that while SOL’s price continues to climb, overall transaction activity on the network has dropped significantly. Such patterns are typically viewed as warning signs, suggesting that price momentum might be driven more by speculative trading than organic growth in network usage. Still, market sentiment around Solana remains mixed. Bulls argue that the decline in transaction count could stem from structural changes in the network’s voting activity rather than a true drop in user engagement. As Solana consolidates amid these conflicting signals, investors are watching closely to determine whether this volatility marks a healthy correction — or the early signs of exhaustion in its rally. Solana Activity Declines Despite Strong Price Rally According to data from CryptoQuant, Solana’s network is showing a sharp contraction in transactional activity even as its price continues to rally. The daily transaction volume has fallen from roughly 125 million on July 24, 2025, to around 64 million today, marking a drop of nearly 50%. What makes this decline particularly notable is that it has occurred during a period of strong upward movement in SOL’s price, creating a negative divergence between price momentum and network fundamentals. This divergence presents an important warning signal. In a healthy market environment, price appreciation should ideally be supported by growth in real ecosystem usage — meaning more DeFi activity, NFT transactions, and user transfers. Instead, the data suggests that Solana’s recent rally could be driven more by market sentiment and speculative enthusiasm rather than sustained organic demand on-chain. However, to understand the full picture, it’s necessary to examine which transactions are declining. Historically, 80–90% of Solana’s activity consists of “voting” transactions, which are essential for maintaining network consensus. A reduction in those does not necessarily reflect lower user activity. If, however, the drop stems from reduced DeFi and NFT interactions, it could signal weakening fundamentals behind Solana’s price surge. Analysts are watching closely to determine whether this trend represents a temporary technical adjustment or an early warning of speculative overheating. If user-driven activity continues to decline, Solana could face increased risk of a deeper correction, testing whether the recent price rally is truly sustainable. Price Analysis: Consolidation After a Strong Rally Solana (SOL) is showing signs of consolidation after an extended rally that pushed its price above the $240 level earlier this month. The chart reveals that SOL has entered a short-term corrective phase, currently trading near $221, down about 3.5% on the day. Despite the pullback, Solana maintains a bullish market structure, as it continues to trade above the key 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are trending upward — a sign that momentum remains in favor of the bulls. The $210–$215 zone stands out as the immediate support area, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Holding above this level would confirm that buyers remain in control and could prepare the asset for another attempt to reclaim $240–$250. A successful breakout above these levels could open the path toward $280, where Solana faced resistance in late 2024. However, a decisive drop below $210 could trigger deeper corrections, with potential downside targets near $190. Overall, Solana appears to be stabilizing after its recent surge, and maintaining support above the 50-day MA will be key for sustaining bullish momentum as the market awaits confirmation of the next major move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,600 and $4,500. ETH is now moving lower and might extend losses below $4,250 in the short term. Ethereum started a downside correction below $4,550 and $4,500. The price is trading below $4,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,385 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $4,250. Ethereum Price Dips Further Ethereum price failed to stay above $4,550 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below the $4,500 and $4,450 levels to enter a bearish zone. The price tested the $4,270 zone. A low was formed at $4,270 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,760 swing high to the $4,270 low. However, the bears are active near the $4,380 level. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,385 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,450 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,385 level and the trend line. The next key resistance is near the $4,450 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,510 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,760 swing high to the $4,270 low. A clear move above the $4,510 resistance might send the price toward the $4,570 resistance. An upside break above the $4,570 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,640 resistance zone or even $4,720 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,450 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,320 level. The first major support sits near the $4,270 zone. A clear move below the $4,270 support might push the price toward the $4,250 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,150 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,120. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,320 Major Resistance Level – $4,450

Dogecoin’s spot pair is grinding higher inside a well-defined structure while its BTC cross sits at an inflection between monthly moving averages—an alignment three widely followed traders say still favors upside, provided trend supports hold. Is It Too Late To Buy Dogecoin? IncomeSharks’ daily chart frames the current advance as a rising channel that has been in place since early summer. Price is riding a sequence of higher lows off the June base and is now near $0.26, mid-channel, with the lower trendline rising through roughly $0.24 and the upper boundary capping rallies in the $0.33 area. The analyst’s “squiggle” path predicted a shallow pullback to the midline followed by a drive toward the channel top, an outlook backed by an On-Balance Volume line that continues to stair-step higher along its own rising trend. In this read, $0.24 is the pivotal dynamic support; losing it would hand control back to sellers and force a reassessment of the entire channel, while holds above $0.26 reopen a test of the $0.33 line that has repeatedly capped advances. Cantonese Cat’s daily view focuses on market structure rather than indicators. The chart traces a long, clean downtrend line from last year’s lower-high sequence—connecting the $0.48 peak through multiple failure points—now broken and back-tested. Spot is fluctuating around $0.25–$0.26 after reclaiming that diagonal, which turns prior resistance into support. “It’ll never make sense to me why people kept saying that the cycle’s over and $DOGE is done when it’s making higher lows,” the trader writes, pointing to the serial HLs that have persisted since spring. If that staircase holds, the path of least resistance runs toward the prior local highs near $0.31, where supply rejected price in September; acceptance above that shelf would align with IncomeSharks’ channel targets. DOGE Vs. BTC The third lens is relative performance. Degentrading highlights DOGE/BTC as their “highest conviction trade,” adding color on why: “$doge has liquidity (so in the event I’m wrong, I don’t get raped on the way out). IF we get a breakout in BTC, Doge has historically performed extremely well. Out of all the dino coins, it is one that is also most familiar w tradfi. Seasonally, Oct is the month with the best median and decent mean returns for $doge… only negative year was in 2018.” The monthly DOGE/BTC chart shows price near 0.00000204 BTC, wedged between the 7-month moving average at ~0.00000187 BTC and the 25-month moving average at ~0.00000223 BTC. That places the pair at a decision point: sustained closes above the longer MA would mark a momentum shift back toward bulls and clear the way to test stepped resistance levels printed on the chart around 0.00000231 BTC and then the mid-range clusters near 0.00000511–0.00000791 BTC, whereas rejection keeps the cross confined to its post-2024 base. The historical blow-off high on the panel—0.00001287 BTC—illustrates the headroom if a full relative rotation develops, but the moving-average shelf is the near-term arbiter. Across all three takes, the through-line is that Dogecoin has not broken its constructive pattern. The spot chart continues to respect a rising channel with improving OBV, the longer downtrend has been breached and retested with HLs intact, and the BTC pair sits one push below a higher-timeframe moving-average reclaim that would confirm relative strength. None of the analysts claim inevitability; each view anchors risk at visible levels. For spot traders, the rising lower boundary around $0.24 is the line that converts a healthy uptrend into distribution if lost; for relative-value traders, the 7-month average near 0.00000187 BTC plays the same role. As long as those floors hold, the evidence presented by IncomeSharks, Cantonese Cat, and Degentrading says it is not “too late,” but rather still about execution around the channel midline and the MA reclaim that would validate the next leg. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.248.

EUR/USD On Thursday, the euro declined by 64 pips, ending up more than 40 pips below the support level of 1.1605. This can be considered price consolidation below the level, which means the euro has chosen the scenario of further decline before closing Monday's gap. The nearest target is 1.1495. Consolidating below this level will open the next target at 1.1392 — the low of August 1. The Marlin oscillator is declining within the area of a downward trend. Yields on U.S. government bonds and the S&P 500 stock index have been moving horizontally all week — the euro has no support for growth, so in the context of the political crisis in France, it continues to decline, either quickly or slowly, toward the specified targets. On the four-hour chart, the trend is clearly downward. This contains some signs of a slowdown in the trend. The Marlin oscillator also reacts sharply to any price increases. We expect the nearest target of 1.1495 to be reached on Monday. Consolidation above 1.1605 may enhance a corrective rise toward the MACD line near the 1.1654 mark. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD The EUR/AUD pair continues its steady movement within a descending price channel. Yesterday, the pair attempted to break below the median line of this channel. The consistent downward slope of the Marlin oscillator's signal line suggests that this median line will likely be breached soon — possibly as early as today. A daily close below this line would open the path toward the lower boundary of the channel at 1.7365. If the price exits the channel altogether, the next downside target becomes the support area at 1.7246 — the May low. On the 4-hour (H4) chart and the daily chart, the pair is also declining below both the balance line and the MACD line. The price is currently testing the median line of the price channel. The Marlin oscillator is moving to the downside, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD The British pound has settled below the support level of 1.3369. There is little remaining to reach the target level of 1.3253, which may be achieved today. A consolidation below this level will open the next target at 1.3140 — the low of August 1. The pound has no unclosed gap from the beginning of the week, unlike the euro, which allows it more freedom in its downward movement. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly correcting from yesterday's low. The situation with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the correction will soon end, as the oscillator's signal line is about to encounter resistance from the forming line and the consolidation range. We are waiting for the price at the target level of 1.3253. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, once again, without any clear fundamental basis. In previous articles, we've repeatedly pointed out the irrational nature of this ongoing trend. So, we won't repeat ourselves. If the euro currently has no strong reason to weaken, the pound has even fewer. At least in the eurozone this week, there has been a political crisis in France (which still hasn't developed into anything), and Germany's industrial production report printed a disappointing result. In our view, even these events don't justify a sharp euro decline, as the fundamentals should be continuously assessed holistically, not selectively based on individual events or data while ignoring everything else. Nevertheless, these still qualify as "formal" reasons for downward pressure. The British pound, on the other hand, doesn't even have those. Once again, we encourage traders to take a look at the daily timeframe, where the broader picture is much clearer. On the 4H chart, we see an illogical decline in the pound at a time when it should be rising. However, the daily chart shows a flat market that has lasted several months, and such a sideways movement doesn't require fundamental justification. Yesterday, GBP/USD returned to the area of its two most recent local lows, which is already a strong reason for the downtrend to potentially end here. Since markets are currently ignoring macroeconomic and fundamental factors, greater attention should be placed on technical analysis. You can identify two sideways channels on the daily chart, with the most recent (narrower) one being between 1.3333 and 1.3664. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the price has tested the lower boundary of that range and may be preparing for another upward wave. That said, predicting price behavior inside a flat market is challenging, as movements can be entirely disconnected from macroeconomic logic. Flats are periods when market makers are either accumulating or distributing positions. This often leads to irrational moves, as market makers follow their own internal strategies. If they are distributing long positions, dollar strength may continue despite the broader economic picture. If they're accumulating long exposure, an upward breakout may eventually follow — a scenario that aligns better with the supportive macro and fundamental backdrop for the pound. Thus, the best strategy at this point may be to wait for the emergence of a new local uptrend — one that remains part of the broader flat pattern. In this case, trading can resume in the direction of that trend, but traders should remain mindful of how the price behaves inside the broader channel. For example, this week the price has repeatedly bounced upward and reversed direction several times, while overall volatility remains relatively low. The average volatility for GBP/USD over the last five trading days stands at 85 pips — considered "moderate" for this pair. For Friday, October 10, we expect movement within the range of 1.3212 to 1.3382. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointed upward, signaling that the overall trend remains bullish. The CCI indicator recently entered oversold territory, once again warning of a possible bullish reversal. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3306S2 – 1.3245S3 – 1.3184Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3367R2 – 1.3428R3 – 1.3489Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is currently in a corrective phase, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies continue to exert pressure on the U.S. dollar, so we don't anticipate sustained dollar strength. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain much more relevant when the price is above the moving average. If the price moves below the moving average, small short positions targeting 1.3245 and 1.3212 can be considered solely on technical grounds. From time to time, the dollar shows signs of strength (as it does now), but any trend change would require real signs of progress — like an end to the trade war or other globally positive developments. Chart Notes:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels are sloping in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (setting 20.0, smoothed) indicates short-term direction.Murrey Math Levels (support/resistance lines) are used for key movement/correction levels.Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the probable price range for the day based on current volatility metrics.CCI Indicator – if CCI moves below -250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought), a trend reversal may be nearing.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair continued a mild downward movement throughout Thursday, still largely unfounded from a fundamental perspective. To recap, the U.S. dollar currently has far more new bearish factors than it has bullish ones. Yet, for nearly two weeks now, the market has been ignoring the overwhelmingly negative fundamental and macro backdrop for the dollar. The reason for this happening is difficult to explain. We believe there's no need to force an explanation for every single move. Who could have predicted two weeks ago that the dollar would rally against the backdrop of a government shutdown, disappointing labor data, and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve? We think no one. So what's the point of trying to explain this move in hindsight? It's irrational — that's all traders need to recognize. On Wednesday evening, the Fed released minutes from its September monetary policy meeting. Unsurprisingly, those minutes changed nothing. In September, Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed might cut rates two more times before year-end — and the minutes confirmed that most FOMC members support continued easing due to the sharp slowdown in the labor market. So what's changed? Nothing. Markets were already pricing in two more rate cuts in October and December — and still are. It's worth remembering that Fed minutes are usually just a formality. Markets receive key information immediately after the meeting in the Fed's statement and press conference. Therefore, it's no surprise that the market reaction to the minutes was minimal or absent. What is surprising is that the dollar continues to strengthen. But glance at the daily timeframe, and you'll see — the U.S. dollar isn't actually showing significant upward momentum. Over the past few weeks, it has regained around 300 pips, but since the beginning of 2025, it has lost 1,700 pips overall. So this recovery doesn't even count as a minimal 23.6% Fibonacci correction. Yes, the dollar is currently rising — irrationally — but what does it change? The long-term trend remains bullish for the euro. It's also worth noting that this week featured very few important economic events. The main one was Powell's speech, which we'll address further in another section. Even if the pair's downward move continues in the short term, our broader expectation remains the same: upside potential. The daily chart also suggests a possible range-bound movement (flat) forming in both EUR and GBP. If that's the case, the price may continue swinging 400–500 pips up and down for an extended period. On smaller timeframes, this range will look like a sequence of trend segments. And in a flat market, price moves don't always require strong fundamental drivers — so don't be surprised by the dollar's seemingly illogical strength. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the past five trading days, as of October 10, is 71 pips, which is considered "moderate." On Friday, we expect the pair to move between 1.1484 and 1.1626. The higher linear regression channel is still pointed upward, indicating a broader bullish trend. The CCI indicator had entered the oversold zone, which could signal the beginning of a new bullish phase. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1536S2 – 1.1414S3 – 1.1353Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1597R2 – 1.1658R3 – 1.1719Trading RecommendationsThe EUR/USD pair remains in a corrective phase, but the overall uptrend remains valid across higher timeframes. U.S. dollar performance is still heavily influenced by Donald Trump's policy agenda, which shows no signs of slowing down. The dollar may be rising at the moment, but the rationale behind it is weak at best. If the price moves below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1484 based on technical analysis alone. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1902, continuing the longer-term trend. Chart Notes:Linear Regression Channels help define the current trend. If both channels are sloping in the same direction, the trend is strong.The Moving Average (setting 20.0, smoothed) indicates short-term direction.Murrey Math Levels (support/resistance lines) are used for key movement/correction levels.Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the probable price range for the day based on current volatility metrics.CCI Indicator – if CCI moves below -250 (oversold) or above +250 (overbought), a trend reversal may be nearing.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its steady decline on Thursday. Interestingly, the drop didn't start after Jerome Powell's speech — the only major event of the day — but rather in the morning. It's unlikely the market was still reacting to the French political crisis for the fourth day in a row. It's becoming clear — something in the market isn't right: either market makers are manipulating price to feign the start of a downtrend, or market sentiment toward Donald Trump's policies has shifted. Either way, the pound continues falling and the dollar continues to rise. Powell said nothing new or significant in his speech, but at this point, the market doesn't seem to care about fundamentals or substance. It simply needs an excuse to buy dollars. On Monday and Tuesday, that excuse was France. On Wednesday, it was Germany's weak industrial production report. On Thursday, it was Powell's speech. And it doesn't matter that the first two events had absolutely nothing to do with the British pound. From a technical point of view, the downtrend has resumed — no doubt about it. There's no active trendline at the moment, but traders can use EUR's trendline as a rough guide, since GBP/USD appears to be falling "not by its own will." That is, it seems to be pulled down alongside the euro, regardless of whether there's a rationale for it. Recent moves remain chaotic and illogical. On the 5-minute chart, many trading signals were generated throughout the day, most of which were false. We've been saying the same thing all week: market movements are irrational, and many levels or zones are being ignored altogether. The pound is collapsing like a stone, as if the Federal Reserve had suddenly turned hawkish. COT Report Recent COT (Commitment of Traders) reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly shifting over the years. The red and blue lines — representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders — frequently cross and generally hover near the zero level. At the moment, they are nearly identical, indicating a reasonably balanced number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to fall due to Donald Trump's policy stance, which means demand for the pound from market makers is currently less important. The trade war will likely persist in one form or another for a long time, and regardless of specifics, the Fed will likely continue to lower its key rate over the next year. That means demand for the dollar should decline. According to the latest COT report for the British pound: The "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts (BUY)Closed 900 short contracts (SELL)Resulting in a net increase of 4,600 contractsThe pound has risen sharply in 2025, mainly due to one driver — Trump's policies. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could begin to rebound. But no one knows when that turning point will arrive. It doesn't matter much how quickly the pound's net positions shift; what matters is that the dollar's net positioning continues to deteriorate — and faster in relative terms. GBP/USD 1H Analysis On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has resumed a downward trend — yet another sign of how illogical market behavior has become. The U.S. dollar still lacks any long-term drivers for strengthening, so we expect a resumption of the broader 2025 uptrend in GBP/USD under normal circumstances. For now, it's a waiting game for panic dollar buying to subside. Important levels for October 10: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Key Ichimoku levels: Senkou Span B (1.3431) and Kijun-sen (1.3394) may also serve as signal levels. It's recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven when a trade moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day — this must be considered when analyzing signals. No important events are scheduled for Friday in the UK, while in the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is set for release. This isn't a major report under normal circumstances, but given the current irrationality of the market, even a neutral reading may fuel further dollar strength. The market currently doesn't care why it's buying dollars — it just needs a trigger. Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, traders should be prepared for any movement. There are no nearby critical levels or zones to offer clear technical guidance. Market conditions remain chaotic and unpredictable. This is not the most favorable environment for traders. Caution is advised. Notes on the Illustrations:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) — levels where price movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines, carried over to the 1-hour chart from the 4-hour chart. Treated as significant reference levels.Swing highs and lows (thin red lines) — previous reversal points serving as trade signal levels.Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 in COT charts — reflects the net position size for each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout Thursday. Overall, even if we were to gather all possible factors that could support the U.S. dollar and ignore all the ones that oppose it, even then, such dollar strength would hardly be justified. The only significant event on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, the dollar began to strengthen earlier in the day, which once again highlights the illogical nature of the current market behavior. Perhaps the market has completely changed its attitude toward Donald Trump's policies and now, for example, views them positively. But from our perspective, there should be some visible positive results of those policies before one can confidently look forward to growth in the U.S. economy. Now back to Powell's speech — the Fed Chair hardly touched on monetary policy and gave no clear signals about easing at the next meeting. What does this change? Nothing. The absence of comments on monetary policy doesn't mean that it won't happen or that the Fed has abandoned the dovish scenario. Still, the market, for some reason, is buying the dollar regardless of justification. It sounds strange in 2025, but this is the objective reality. On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed. First, the pair attempted a slight rebound from the 1.1604–1.1615 area, followed by a breakout of this zone. The first signal turned out to be false, while the second was profitable. On the 1-hour chart, a descending trendline has formed, giving traders a technical reference. Despite the fundamentally ungrounded drop in the pair, a potential trend reversal can be assessed by observing whether the price breaks through the trendline. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for quite some time. Bears briefly took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost their advantage. Ever since Trump began his second term as president, only the U.S. dollar has been falling. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar's decline will continue, but current global developments point to that scenario. We still see no strong fundamental factors for euro strength, but plenty of reasons remain for further dollar weakness. The global downtrend remains intact — but what's the point of looking back 17 years to see where price once moved? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may strengthen again. But recent events suggest that this war will persist in one form or another. A potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is yet another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The position of the red and blue indicator lines still suggests the bullish trend is intact. During the most recent reporting week: Long positions by the Non-commercial group fell by 800 contractsShort positions increased by 2,600 contractsAs a result, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts.EUR/USD 1H Analysis On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to develop a downward trend. While we still don't see any solid reasons for the dollar's rally, the price continues to break through one support zone after another. We consider the pair's decline irrational, but it is what it is. On the daily chart, the prevailing trend remains upward. For October 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846, 1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line at 1.1733 and the Kijun-sen line at 1.1657. Note: Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, so account for these possibilities when interpreting trading signals. Don't forget: If the price moves 15 pips in the right direction, set your Stop Loss to breakeven — this will protect against losses in case a signal fails. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published in the U.S. — the only notable event of the day. And honestly, we wouldn't be surprised if it sparks further dollar growth, because at this point, the market seems to need no reason at all to buy the greenback. Trading Recommendations:On Friday, traders can work off the 1.1534 level. A breakthrough of this level will open the way to 1.1426. A bounce will allow a correction back to 1.1604–1.1615 and toward the trendline. We would assume that today might bring an upward correction since this week's dollar rally seems totally undeserved. However, the market may very well continue buying the dollar — because right now, it doesn't even need a reason to do so. Notes on the Illustrations:Support and resistance levels (thick red lines) — levels where price movement may end. These are not sources of trading signals.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines, carried over to the 1-hour chart from the 4-hour chart. Treated as significant reference levels.Swing highs and lows (thin red lines) — previous reversal points serving as trade signal levels.Yellow lines — trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 in COT charts — reflects the net position size for each trader category.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $124,000 level. BTC is now struggling and might continue to move down below $120,000. Bitcoin started a downside correction below the $123,200 level. The price is trading below $123,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $122,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $120,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $125,000 zone and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below the $124,000 support to enter a short-term bearish zone. The bears even pushed the price below $121,200. A low was formed at $119,810 and the price recently recovered some losses. There was a move toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $119,810 low. However, the bears are still active near $121,750. Bitcoin is now trading below $121,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $122,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $121,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $122,250 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $123,750 swing high to the $119,810 low. The next resistance could be $122,750 and the trend line. A close above the $122,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $123,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $124,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $125,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $122,750 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $120,750 level. The first major support is near the $120,000 level. The next support is now near the $118,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $116,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $115,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $120,750, followed by $120,000. Major Resistance Levels – $122,750 and $123,500.

The Ripple XRP is quietly executing a mission of its own, transforming the global financial plumbing from the inside out. By moving beyond theory and into practical application, XRP technology is being adopted by banks, payment networks, and central institutions seeking faster and more efficient cross-border transfers. XRP As The Bridge Between Old And New Finance While most of the crypto world obsesses over price swings and short-term narratives, Ripple is quietly executing on something much larger: a structural rewrite of global finance. As Xfinancebul pointed out on X, XRP isn’t here to compete with other cryptocurrencies. It’s here to replace the old system that still underpins international payments today. Thunes and Ripple’s relationship is a prime example of this transformation in motion. Together, they connect over 130 countries and tap into more than 90% of the global foreign exchange (FX) markets, effectively stitching together a new global settlement network powered by XRP. Combined, these two powerhouses are actively unlocking real-time settlement, establishing vital liquidity corridors, and pushing enterprise-grade blockchain integration onto a global stage. Thus, the numbers are powering over $70 billion in annual payment volume, spanning multiple currencies. However, while most crypto communities have remained fixated on price charts and short-term gains, Ripple has engaged in collaboration. The firm is working directly with banks, navigating complex regulatory landscapes, and integrating with global networks to fix the speed, cost, and transparency that the SWIFT system has been struggling with. Xfinancebul highlighted that this profound utility validates everything XRP has always stood for. XRP is not just another token, but a foundation piece of digital finance that is now seeing adoption at an accelerating scale within the institutional level. The game truly changes when liquidity begins to flow seamlessly through XRP, instead of being bogged down by legacy rails. This isn’t just a minor improvement for payments, but a paradigm shift for the entire global financial ecosystem. Digital Asset That Refuses To Slow Down An analyst known as Ripple Track has also emphasized that XRP is engineered for speed, institutional trust, and a tool for future global financial transformation. Presently, that future is already starting to echo through the charts. Other XRP-related coins have been exhibiting bullish action in the last few days. After rallying from $0.04 to new all-time highs in mere days last year, XRPH is once again forming the same explosive setup. In the meantime, XRP Healthcare (XRPH), a token in the Ripple ecosystem, is coiling like a spring, with pressure building steadily, momentum rising to the surface, and the charts screaming ready to launch. “History doesn’t repeat itself, but when it rhymes out loud, the wise listen,” the analyst mentioned.

The Ethereum Foundation has introduced a new Privacy Cluster dedicated to building out privacy features across the network. This shows a clear push to make privacy part of Ethereum’s foundation rather than a secondary concern. The cluster brings together 47 specialists, including engineers, researchers, cryptographers, and coordinators. It will be led by Igor Barinov, the founder of Blockscout, who has a long history within the Ethereum ecosystem. Working Side by Side with Other Teams Rather than operating as a silo, the Privacy Cluster will coordinate closely with other Foundation groups. One of its key partners will be the Institutional Privacy Task Force, which focuses on aligning Ethereum’s privacy developments with regulations worldwide. By collaborating instead of isolating, the cluster aims to balance technical innovation with compliance. Kohaku Wallet and SDK Ready to Debut In parallel with the cluster’s launch, the Foundation is preparing Kohaku, a privacy-focused wallet and software development kit. It is expected to be unveiled at Devcon later this year. Kohaku’s goal is to give wallets built on Ethereum the ability to handle private transactions with fewer dependencies on intermediaries. Users would gain more direct control over how their information is handled. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 A Wide Range of Privacy Work Ahead The cluster’s scope covers many areas. It will focus on private payments, confidential identity systems, zero-knowledge infrastructure, and private reads and writes at the protocol level. It may develop tools for anonymous signaling, private voting systems, and stealth addresses. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Another area of interest is anonymizing RPC node behavior to prevent user metadata from being exposed. Current Weaknesses in Ethereum’s Privacy Layer Privacy on Ethereum still faces notable gaps. For example, many wallets expose IP addresses when interacting with centralized nodes. Unless users operate their own nodes or route traffic through privacy tools like Tor, this data remains vulnerable. Privacy experts have argued that improvements need to happen at multiple layers, from contracts to infrastructure, to achieve meaningful protection. Regulatory Scrutiny Shapes the Timing This new cluster arrives during intense discussions about blockchain privacy. Regulators have been increasing pressure on crypto networks, and privacy tools have become a focal point. Vitalik Buterin has previously opposed laws that would require scanning encrypted communications, framing privacy as essential to user rights. The cluster could strengthen Ethereum’s position in these debates by offering privacy features that remain compatible with regulatory expectations. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 A Signal of Where Ethereum Is Heading Creating a dedicated cluster shows that the Foundation is elevating privacy to a central priority. If the team can deliver scalable and practical solutions, Ethereum could become a leader in privacy-friendly blockchain development. The cluster’s progress will reveal how committed the network is to making confidentiality a core feature rather than an afterthought. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The Ethereum Foundation created a new Privacy Cluster to make privacy a core part of the network’s design rather than an add-on feature. The cluster brings together 47 specialists led by Igor Barinov and will work closely with groups like the Institutional Privacy Task Force to align innovation with regulation. Alongside the cluster, the Foundation is preparing to launch Kohaku, a privacy-focused wallet and SDK that aims to give users more control over their transaction data. The cluster will address multiple privacy gaps, from private payments and stealth addresses to anonymizing RPC behavior, aiming for stronger protection across layers. This initiative comes amid regulatory pressure and highlights Ethereum’s effort to lead in privacy-focused blockchain development while staying compliant. The post Ethereum Foundation Launches Privacy Cluster Initiative appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing a new proposal that aims to make spending Bitcoin as easy as swiping a debit card. Her plan introduces a de minimis tax exemption that would remove capital gains reporting for small Bitcoin transactions. By cutting out complicated tax steps, she hopes to make paying for coffee, groceries, or everyday services with Bitcoin far more practical. Breaking Down the Proposal The draft framework would exempt individual transactions under roughly 300 dollars from taxation, with a yearly cap of 5,000 dollars per person. That means people wouldn’t need to calculate capital gains every time they spend small amounts. There are limits, though. Transactions that involve converting Bitcoin to cash or that fall under business activity could still trigger reporting. Why Current Rules Get in the Way Under existing U.S. tax laws, crypto is treated as property. Every transaction counts as a taxable event, no matter how small. That structure makes using Bitcoin for routine spending a hassle. Lummis believes this change could bring Bitcoin closer to its original vision as a currency, rather than leaving it stuck as a speculative investment. She sees this proposal as part of a wider framework to modernize digital asset taxation. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Political Momentum and Familiar Faces Lummis has been here before. She has previously supported similar measures to ease tax reporting on personal crypto transactions. This new version is partly a response to pressure from industry leaders, like Jack Dorsey, who has publicly called for lawmakers to make Bitcoin easier to spend. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Lummis has made it clear she is working on the issue and has encouraged supporters to speak up in Congress. Pushback from Other Lawmakers Not everyone shares her enthusiasm. Senator Elizabeth Warren and others have raised concerns that the exemption could create loopholes or weaken tax enforcement. Critics argue that it could give crypto users unfair advantages or make it easier to avoid taxes altogether. There’s also the technical challenge of writing clear rules that prevent misuse while still encouraging legitimate spending. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 How This Could Influence Bitcoin Adoption If this exemption becomes law, it could make small Bitcoin payments far more appealing for both consumers and merchants. Wallet providers and payment apps might build in features that take advantage of the new rules, encouraging more real-world use. It may not spark immediate price changes, but it could nudge Bitcoin toward a more transactional role instead of being just a store of value. Key Signs to Watch The next steps will depend on whether this proposal gets folded into broader crypto tax legislation. Lawmakers’ reactions will set the tone for how serious this push becomes. The exact definitions and safeguards in the final bill will be critical, as will the response from payment companies and wallet providers. If it gains momentum, this proposal could help shift Bitcoin from an investment held in cold storage to something people actually use every day. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing a proposal to make small Bitcoin payments easier by removing capital gains reporting for low-value transactions. The plan includes a de minimis tax exemption for transactions under $300, with a $5,000 yearly cap per person. Current tax rules treat every crypto transaction as taxable, which makes spending Bitcoin on everyday items complicated and impractical. The proposal has support from industry figures like Jack Dorsey but faces opposition from lawmakers concerned about tax loopholes and enforcement issues. If passed, the exemption could boost real-world Bitcoin adoption, making it easier for consumers and merchants to use Bitcoin for everyday payments. The post Senator Lummis Pushes Tax Plan to Boost Bitcoin Payments appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

As the stablecoin sector sees global momentum grow, white label event management infrastructure provider Rhuna has raised $2 million in seed funding to expand stablecoin payments in the entertainment industry. Rhuna Raises $2 Million In Seed Round On Thursday, Romania-based infrastructure platform Rhuna announced the completion of a $2 million seed round, led by Aptos Labs, to continue providing on-chain payments, access, identity, and rewards infrastructure for the entertainment industry. The seed round saw the participation of Acc Ventures, X Ventures, NewTribe Capital, Keyrock, CoinarketCap Labs, FunFair, Lémanique, and other investors. Notably, Rhuna provides event organizers with a single, programmable layer for wallet-native checkout and POS, ticketing, access control, and real-time stablecoin settlement, acting as a “universal entertainment pass” at different events, powered by stablecoin settlement and on-chain identity. “Organizers can use Rhuna to issue tickets, verify access, run loyalty, accept wallet-native payments, and settle value through a secure, composable layer that feels familiar to users and verifies on-chain,” the platform explained. According to the statement, the new funding aims to strengthen Rhuna’s payments and settlement rails, expand organizer tooling and integration, and accelerate the launch of the platform’s consumer app, designed to “bring discovery, access, and wallet-native checkout into one seamless experience.” Aptos Labs co-founder and CEO, Avery Ching, affirmed that Rhuna is “bridging the gap between digital innovation and real-world experiences.” “We’re proud to support Rhuna in making on-chain payments, access, and rewards seamless and accessible for millions of users across the global entertainment economy,” he added. A Bridge For Stablecoin Payments Rhuna has already supported over 2 million users across its pilot deployments, bridging fiat payments and stablecoin settlement, and reportedly processing over $90 million in volume. Moreover, the platform’s infrastructure has powered over 165 events and major festivals, including UNTOLD, Neversea, and Kapital. The platform highlighted that more than 450,000 attendees of UNTOLD, one of the world’s top music festivals, held in Romania, used Rhuna-powered payments and access systems across the festival grounds. Sveatoslav Vizitiu, Rhuna’s co-founder and CEO, considers that “Entertainment runs on transactions and trust,” affirming that the platform aims to make every step, from the venue gate to the ride home, “verifiable, programmable, and portable so that operators run smarter businesses and fans actually own their experience.” The announcement added that the platform has also expanded across continents to power Dubai’s first mega festival, UNTOLD Dubai, which will take place in early November, and to “further validate its scalability across global entertainment ecosystems.” Vizitiu stated that the platform is entering a new phase with the expansion. “With global events like UNTOLD Dubai, we’re bringing more of the entertainment experience on-chain,” he continued, “from Buy Now, Pay Later and our upcoming consumer app, where users can create their own events, to innovative tools for organizers covering payments, mobility, ticketing, and more.”

Ethereum is trading at critical levels after a period of heightened volatility that has left traders and investors on edge. The price has been swinging between key resistance and support zones, reflecting a market torn between optimism for another leg higher and caution over potential short-term corrections. While sentiment remains divided, on-chain data paints a more confident picture behind the scenes. According to recent reports, large holders and institutions continue to accumulate ETH, reinforcing the idea that the current market uncertainty may be viewed by many as an opportunity rather than a threat. At the same time, staking activity remains consistently strong, signaling long-term conviction among Ethereum’s most committed participants. The ongoing rise in staked ETH highlights confidence in the network’s security, yield potential, and role as a foundation for decentralized finance. As Ethereum hovers near decisive price levels, the market appears to be preparing for a breakout in either direction. Whether the next move favors bulls or bears, one thing is clear — Ethereum’s fundamentals remain resilient, and the persistent accumulation by major players could serve as a powerful anchor for the next major trend once market sentiment aligns. Grayscale Stakes Ethereum: A Strong Signal Of Confidence According to Lookonchain, Grayscale (ETHE and ETH ETF) has staked an additional 857,600 ETH, worth approximately $3.83 billion, once again signaling major institutional conviction in Ethereum’s long-term potential. This move underscores the growing alignment between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure, as large-scale players continue to embrace Ethereum’s proof-of-stake model not just as an investment, but as a yield-generating and network-participating strategy. This massive staking operation carries several implications for the market. First, it effectively reduces circulating supply, since staked ETH is locked and cannot be easily sold. This dynamic strengthens Ethereum’s deflationary pressure, especially in a context where network activity and gas usage remain elevated. At the same time, the scale of this move reveals increasing institutional participation in Ethereum’s ecosystem, suggesting that the asset is being viewed less as a speculative instrument and more as digital infrastructure — a key component of the emerging tokenized economy. From a market perspective, this decision comes during a period of volatility and consolidation, where Ethereum’s price action has struggled to establish a clear direction. However, such sustained institutional staking serves as a stabilizing force, reflecting confidence that the asset’s intrinsic value continues to grow regardless of short-term fluctuations. In essence, Grayscale’s renewed staking push reinforces Ethereum’s position as the institutional cornerstone of DeFi and Web3, even as market sentiment remains mixed. If accumulation trends persist and network fundamentals hold strong, Ethereum could be preparing for a significant breakout in the coming weeks — supported not by retail speculation, but by deep, long-term capital positioning itself for the next phase of the cycle. Price Action Detail: Bulls Defend Key Support Levels Ethereum is currently trading around $4,340, showing signs of stabilization after a volatile session that saw a sharp rejection near $4,700. The 4-hour chart reveals that ETH has retraced toward its 200-period moving average, a critical dynamic support zone that often acts as a pivot point for market direction. Despite the recent dip of nearly 2%, the broader structure remains constructive, as long as bulls can maintain the price above the $4,300–$4,250 range. This area coincides with a key confluence of the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, suggesting that the current pullback could simply be a technical retest before another attempt to reclaim the $4,500 zone. A confirmed bounce from this region could set the stage for Ethereum to regain momentum and potentially retest the $4,700–$4,800 resistance range in the coming days. However, if selling pressure intensifies and ETH closes below $4,200, the market could see an extended correction toward $4,000 or even $3,850, where previous consolidation occurred. Overall, while volatility persists, Ethereum continues to display resilience supported by strong on-chain accumulation and institutional staking — factors that reinforce the broader bullish narrative despite short-term market fluctuations. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP’s performance in the ongoing 2025 bull run has become one of the most discussed topics in crypto, as the token continues to challenge the dominance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB. In a recent video shared on the social media platform X, crypto commentator Zach Rector described what he called the inconvenient truth of this market cycle: XRP is currently outperforming most of the top 50 cryptocurrencies in percentage growth since the last US presidential election and from the depths of the previous bear market. Ethereum, BNB, And Bitcoin’s Performance Rector began his comparison by pointing to Ethereum’s recovery trajectory. According to Ethereum’s price chart, investors who bought Ethereum before the most recent US presidential election have seen returns of about 89%, while long-term holders who entered during the 2022 bear market lows and are yet to sell are currently sitting on 400% gains. BNB, he said, has delivered slightly better results, with 109% returns for pre-election buyers and 527% for those who accumulated during the 2022 bear market lows. Turning to Bitcoin, Rector noted that even after breaking to multiple new all-time highs this cycle, its returns are modest compared to XRP. He pointed out that a Bitcoin purchase before the election would have yielded an 82% return, while those who entered around the bear market bottom and are yet to sell would have gained around 678% on their Bitcoin holdings. XRP Outperforming The Market It’s a fact that XRP’s price action this cycle is much better than its performance in the 2021 crypto market bull run, where its growth was hampered by the SEC-Ripple lawsuit. Therefore, Zach Rector’s main point focuses on XRP’s strength within the current market cycle. He stated that if an investor had purchased XRP at $0.50 before the election, their position would now be up 500%. On the other hand, those who bought at the bear market bottom and are still holding would have seen an extraordinary 900% gain. As such, these numbers make XRP one of the most profitable assets among the major cryptocurrencies, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB. In his words, “The inconvenient truth about the 2025 crypto bull run, and this is why people are so upset, is that XRP is still outperforming nearly all of the top 50 cryptos.” The statement quickly gained traction within the XRP community, as shown by the comments on his video posted on X. XRP price action in the past few days, however, has been majorly corrective. The price has been drifting lower toward a critical support level around $2.80, which is now an important level for bulls to defend. A breakdown below $2.8 could expose the next support at $2.72, while maintaining it could set the stage for another upward move. Even with this cooling phase, many XRP enthusiasts and analysts are optimistic. Many expect the token to break above $4 in the coming months, with some predicting that it could eventually enter double-digit territory once Spot XRP ETFs are launched in the US.

Solana (SOL) is flashing a powerful bullish setup as it forms a classic cup and handle pattern on the monthly chart. With the 1.618 Fibonacci target sitting near $425 and the monthly MACD gearing up for a golden cross, momentum is building fast. As speculation around a potential Solana ETF approval heats up, traders are eyeing what could be the start of a major breakout rally. Cup And Handle Formation Signals A Major Bullish Setup Lark Davis, a well-known crypto analyst, recently shared an optimistic outlook on SOL, highlighting a significant technical formation that could set the stage for a major rally. According to Davis, Solana is currently developing a classic cup and handle pattern on its monthly chart. This setup often signals the potential for a strong bullish breakout once the pattern completes. He further explained that the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which often serves as a key target during large upward moves, sits around $425. Adding to the bullish case, Davis noted that the monthly MACD indicator is also forming a golden cross. This powerful technical signal typically marks the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Finally, with growing anticipation surrounding a potential Solana ETF approval, the analyst believes Solana could be on the verge of an exciting and rapid upward move, one that might redefine its position in the crypto market if the pattern unfolds as expected. Swift Recovery Pushes Solana Back Into Profit Territory Crypto VIP Signal, in a recent update, highlighted a notable shift in SOL market structure following a sharp move below the $200 level. The drop triggered a wave of liquidations among high-leverage long positions, causing weak hands to be shaken out of the market. This correction, however, proved short-lived as buying pressure quickly returned, showcasing strong support and renewed bullish momentum. Following the dip, SOL rebounded impressively, allowing long positions to secure over 16% in profit from their initial entry points. Looking ahead, the analyst noted that Solana could be gearing up for a move toward the $250 resistance level, which stands as the next major hurdle for the bulls. A successful break and close above this level could open the door for additional gains and confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In terms of strategy, Crypto VIP Signal advised traders to maintain their long positions while implementing a stop-loss at breakeven to protect profits from any unexpected volatility. With bullish momentum returning to the market, careful position management could ensure traders remain well-positioned for the next potential leg higher.

Donald Trump took office for a second term in January 2025, promising to reduce the U.S. national debt, cut the budget deficit, address immigration issues, and revive American manufacturing. His campaign was powerful and full of grand promises — pledging a "Golden Age" for the American people. Nine months into his presidency, it's time to assess the early results. The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals. In the first quarter, U.S. GDP fell for the first time since 2022, but in the second quarter, it posted its strongest growth since 2023. In other words, it's too early to say definitively whether the U.S. economy under Trump is expanding or contracting. It's worth noting that global tariffs began to take effect in the second quarter — and with each passing month, more are being added. The economy's strong performance may not be due to real growth, but rather a one-off boost from increased revenue under the new tariff regime. For the first time in years, the U.S. posted a monthly budget surplus this summer. However, other indicators are moving in the opposite direction, even amid strong Q2 growth. Business activity is declining, unemployment is rising, and industrial production is slowing. Inflation has been accelerating again since the summer, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in an effort to save the job market. As a result, inflation is likely to continue rising under current conditions. The U.S. national debt continues its climb — just as it has every year. It now stands at $37.9 trillion, a new all-time high. But the U.S. debt behaves much like Bitcoin: it only goes up. To reverse the trend, it would be necessary to increase revenues and reduce spending. Trump, however, is doing the opposite — increasing both revenues and expenditures. His "One Big Bill" calls for deep cuts to healthcare and social welfare programs (as a cost-saving measure), while at the same time cutting taxes and significantly boosting defense and military spending. This policy mix makes it clear that reducing the national debt is not truly on the agenda. In October, the U.S. once again faced a government shutdown due to funding issues. Strange things are happening in financial markets — both Bitcoin and gold are hitting record highs, despite their vastly different risk profiles. The rise in gold makes sense. But Bitcoin? That's harder to explain. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks keep rising, despite growing warnings from economists that the market is "severely overheated." The U.S. dollar has been steadily declining throughout 2025. One has to wonder — could a "black swan" event be on its way to America? Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on my latest EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop, especially policy decisions from Donald Trump and the domestic and foreign agenda of the new U.S. administration. The current wave segment may extend up to the 1.25 mark. At the moment, the market is forming corrective wave 4, which may be nearing completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact, so I continue to consider only long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has become more complex. We're still dealing with an upward impulsive wave, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave formation, the overall wave structure may return to balance. However, this would result in a significantly more extended and complicated wave 4 versus wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed breakout attempts suggest the market is ready to buy on dips. A third failure may again move prices away from the recent lows. My targets for the pair remain above the 1.38 level. My Core Analytical Principles:Wave structures should be simple and clearly defined. Complex formations are harder to trade and often signal potential changes.If there's no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be successfully combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As I've already mentioned this week, the biggest current intrigue lies with the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ongoing government shutdown. I don't believe that the political crisis in France is significant enough for market participants to continue reacting to it for another week or two. In my view, the shutdown is far more important because it, for instance, deprives the Fed of crucial data on inflation, unemployment, and the labor market for September. The shutdown also results in the partial suspension of government operations and delivers a blow to the economy. Many economists already forecast a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the coming years, despite a strong second quarter, and the shutdown will only exacerbate that trend. From my perspective, the Fed is in a position where it has to take risks — lower interest rates even without fully understanding how the economy is responding to previous easing. Imagine that following the rate cut in September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated even further. In August, it rose to 2.9%, and according to some projections, it could exceed 3% year-over-year in September. So how can the Fed justify continuing to ease policy if inflation was rising even before the cut — and continues rising afterward? What I'm saying is that every upcoming Fed rate decision now looks far less obvious than the market seems to think — particularly the futures market, whose sentiment is reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool. According to this tool, the probability of a rate cut in October stands at 95%, and in December at 82%. Put simply, market participants are not even considering alternative outcomes beyond two more rate cuts. And I believe that's a mistake. Or perhaps the CME FedWatch Tool reflects a flawed market sentiment. Over the past few weeks, demand for the U.S. dollar has been growing. And if we assume the French crisis has little or nothing to do with it, then that demand is likely due to fading expectations of more monetary easing. In that light, everything looks quite logical. Personally, I highly doubt that Jerome Powell would support even one more rate cut if inflation exceeds 3%. Somewhere, there's an error in the current equation — maybe the futures market believes in easing, but the FX market, judging by its behavior, is signaling the opposite. Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:Based on my latest EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop, especially policy decisions from Donald Trump and the domestic and foreign agenda of the new U.S. administration. The current wave segment may extend up to the 1.25 mark. At the moment, the market is forming corrective wave 4, which may be nearing completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact, so I continue to consider only long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:The wave pattern for GBP/USD has become more complex. We're still dealing with an upward impulsive wave, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 develops into a complex three-wave formation, the overall wave structure may return to balance. However, this would result in a significantly more extended and complicated wave 4 versus wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed breakout attempts suggest the market is ready to buy on dips. A third failure may again move prices away from the recent lows. My targets for the pair remain above the 1.38 level. My Core Analytical Principles:Wave structures should be simple and clearly defined. Complex formations are harder to trade and often signal potential changes.If there's no confidence in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be successfully combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Thursday, the Japanese yen continued to decline. Earlier this week, Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, emphasized that the government would closely monitor foreign exchange movements, underscoring the importance of exchange rates that reflect real economic fundamentals. At the same time, the unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race paves the way for her potential appointment as Japan's first female prime minister. Her win also fuels speculation about a more expansionary fiscal approach under her leadership. In response, traders have priced in just a 26% probability that the BoJ will raise its key interest rate at the next policy meeting on October 30 — nearly half the 60% likelihood expected as recently as last Friday. This sharp repricing has weighed on the yen since the start of the week. Takaichi's economic advisors, Etsuro Honda and Takuji Aida, have suggested that the new prime minister may allow one additional rate hike in December or January, although further policy steps remain uncertain. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation has remained at or above the BoJ's 2% target for more than three years, and the economy continues to grow. This preserves hopes that the BoJ could hike rates again before the end of the year. On the U.S. side, minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released Wednesday, showed near-unanimous agreement among members to cut rates due to concerns about labor market weakness and a more balanced inflation outlook. However, policymakers remain divided about whether one or two additional rate cuts will be necessary before year-end. Overall, the tone of the meeting was cautious, signaling the Fed's continued commitment to easing policy. The CME FedWatch Tool still reflects high market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's remaining meetings in October and December. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his proposed 20-point peace plan, including a ceasefire and the release of hostages and prisoners — a development which reduces the attractiveness of traditional "safe-haven" assets. From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, discouraging traders from opening new bullish positions. However, any pullback is likely to attract new buyers and remain shallow near the psychological level of 152.00. A break below that level could trigger technical selling, potentially pulling spot prices down toward strong horizontal support at 151.00. On the upside, the round number level of 153.00 serves as immediate resistance. A sustained move above that level would confirm a bullish continuation, pushing USD/JPY even higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The New Zealand dollar recently hit a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, sliding to 0.5731. The intraday decline was triggered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) October monetary policy decision to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points — a much more aggressive move than the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut. So the actual result surprised market participants. Moreover, the central bank has made it clear that it is open to further steps to ease monetary policy. This "ultra-dovish" move took the market by surprise and reminded traders that the RBNZ is not afraid to act boldly when needed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand really does know how to surprise the market—though this particular quality isn't necessarily a positive trait for a central bank. Poor communication often leads to heightened volatility, unsettling markets. Even so, facts are facts. For example, six years ago — in the summer of 2019 — the RBNZ shocked the markets by unexpectedly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points without any prior signal. At the time, the global financial system was feeling the weight of the U.S.–China trade war, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand became the first among major global central banks to initiate monetary easing — a move later followed by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, and several others. In 2024, a mirror scenario occurred — the RBNZ again became one of the first central banks to begin easing monetary policy. With the latest cut included, the central bank has lowered interest rates by a total of 300 basis points since August of the previous year. Notably, ahead of the previous (August) meeting, there were widespread market rumors that the RBNZ would conclude its current rate-cutting cycle since inflation had accelerated in the second quarter. Those expectations failed to materialize: the central bank not only cut rates by 25 basis points, but also clearly hinted at another reduction at one of the upcoming meetings. As a result, the scenario of a 25-point cut in October was fully priced in and reflected in market action. But, as already mentioned, the RBNZ has a reputation for surprises. Although key macroeconomic data for the third quarter (inflation, labor market, GDP) had yet to be published, the central bank decided to "move ahead of the curve" by cutting rates by a full 50 basis points. The reasons cited included slowing economic growth (weak domestic demand and lingering effects from the previous tightening cycle), weakening domestic inflationary pressures (moderate wage growth, restrained inflation expectations, and price increases mostly driven by external shocks rather than internal overheating). The central bank also pointed to a decline in business investment, with the construction sector — one of the key GDP drivers — being especially affected. Additionally, there is weakening global demand, particularly from China, a major trading partner of New Zealand (notably via dairy, meat, and other exports). By cutting the rate by 50 basis points, the RBNZ all but confirmed that another rate cut could come before the end of the year — likely at the December meeting. Interestingly, despite the clear dovish outcome of the October RBNZ meeting, the New Zealand dollar managed to partly recover against the U.S. dollar. The NZD/USD pair initially dropped sharply to 0.5731 but ended the day at 0.5780. On Thursday, buyers of the pair have already tested the 0.58 range. While they failed to hold above the 0.5800 resistance level, sellers of NZD/USD have yet to regain control. This suggests that, given the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, traders are hesitant to open large positions in favor of the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, for the sixth time, the U.S. Senate failed to pass a government funding bill — even though the shutdown has already led to mass flight disruptions across the country. Despite such obvious negative consequences, Republicans and Democrats continue to defend their positions, refusing to compromise. Moreover, according to Reuters, Trump has proposed withholding back pay for federal employees accrued during the shutdown. The situation is clearly deteriorating, with no resolution in sight, which is keeping the U.S. dollar under persistent pressure and allowing NZD/USD buyers to "hold the line." From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands on both the four-hour and daily charts. On the D1 timeframe, it is below the Kumo cloud and the Kijun-sen line, but above the Tenkan-sen line. On the H4 chart, it is between the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines. Long positions should only be considered if the pair breaks above the resistance level at 0.5810 — the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the H4 chart): in this case, the pair will be between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands lines on the H4 chart, as well as above all Ichimoku indicator lines, which will form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

"Strong economies support strong currencies." This fundamental analysis principle remains valid. While tariffs and Donald Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies are expected to weigh on U.S. GDP in 2026, the "big and beautiful" tax cut legislation will only sugarcoat the damage. In contrast, Europe is set to benefit from rising defense spending and fiscal stimulus from Germany — factors supporting the ongoing uptrend in EUR/USD. That said, no trend exists without corrections. From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. dollar dominated the Forex market, driven by the exceptional performance of the American economy and stock indexes, which considerably outshone their European counterparts. However, Trump's policies have since flipped the narrative. "Buy America" gave way to "Sell America." Still, foreign investors couldn't entirely abandon the most liquid and expansive stock market in the world — the 35% rally in the S&P 500 off the April lows is proof of that. EUR/USD Dynamics and the Ratio Between Eurostoxx 600 and S&P 500 European equities significantly underperformed in Q2 and Q3, making it hard to argue that the rally in EUR/USD is primarily driven by capital flows from North America to Europe. Instead, foreign investors have been hedging dollar risks by selling the greenback. According to Nordea, this has been the main contributor to the euro's strength. The bank forecasts a continued euro rally toward $1.26 by 2027 — or possibly sooner if the Federal Reserve adopts an aggressively dovish monetary policy. The U.S. dollar remains highly sensitive to changes in Fed funds rate expectations and corresponding moves in Treasury yields. While the current government shutdown has dulled that sensitivity to some degree, it hasn't removed it completely. Dollar Dynamics and US Bond Yields During Trump's first term, the government shutdown lasted 35 days. If history repeats itself, the Fed will go into the October meeting without seeing the September payrolls report — leaving the ADP stats as the only reference point. And the latest ADP figures suggest a sharp cooling in U.S. employment. As for the so-called political crisis in France, it is largely a temporary concern. While investors are nervous about parliamentary elections, once scheduled, such a vote would reduce uncertainty — ultimately supporting EUR/USD. The National Rally party currently enjoys high popularity and is expected to win a majority in the reshaped National Assembly, potentially forming a stable government. That outcome would be favorable for the euro. In other words, if you're afraid of wolves, don't go into the forest. The faster investors' fears materialize, the sooner the correction in EUR/USD will be over. On the daily chart, EUR/USD has returned to the convergence zone between 1.0590 and 1.0605. A successful breakout below this zone would allow for an increase in short positions initiated from the 1.0710 level. A rebound, on the other hand, would provide grounds for renewed long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin traded just above $121,000 on Wednesday, holding onto gains after a drop from a recent peak above $126,000. According to analyst Egrag Crypto, a small market move could trigger a much larger rally, building on a pattern he says has repeated across past cycles. Historic Channel Breakouts Egrag’s view is based on a three-month look at price channels that, he argues, have preceded major rallies. Based on reports, similar channel breakouts were visible before the 2013 surge to about $1,163, the 2017 rise past $19,000, and the 2020–2021 rally that pushed prices above $69,000. He says the current channel began forming in April 2022, and that a modest “blip” upward could push Bitcoin to $175,000. That target would require roughly a nearly 43% rise from $122,620. Short-term swings have ranged from $115,000 to $125,000 this week, while the present price sits near $121,900. Targets And Risks To Watch Egrag outlined a range of possible outcomes. He placed $175,000 as his primary target. He also suggested a midpoint near $250,000 and an upper scenario around $400,000. Those are ambitious numbers. They are presented as part of a longer-term view rather than promises of an immediate move. The analyst compared his Bitcoin call to a past gold forecast—he set a $3,500 target for gold that later saw prices near $4,000—using that as a reference for his forecasting approach. At the same time, on-chain data offer a mixed picture. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that 97% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit following the recent rally. That high level of realized profit suggests many holders sit above their purchase price. Some analysts interpret elevated profit as a sign that markets may pause so investors can take gains. Others point to crowded positions and rising leverage as signs that short-term volatility could increase. Reports have disclosed concern about what some call a “Suckers Rally,” a spike that tempts late buyers and is followed by a drop. Market Behavior And Investor Moves Accumulation has been visible in many wallets. Some investors reallocated gains rather than selling out entirely, which, according to reports, can indicate a controlled rotation of capital rather than a panic sell-off. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 9th Now up above 2% on the week, many Markets and assets can't ignore the ongoing rally in the US Dollar. Between resilient consumers – with, for example, Airlines like Delta giving out strong future expectations – and the Trump Administration-engineered Middle East deal agreed by both parties now, the US is getting back on its feet. Indeed, some questions are arising in concern of the strength of the US Economy. Despite some job losses and tariffs, how is it that company earnings and retail sales are still growing so much ? Some very interesting pieces convey that US Equities at record highs and filthy rich Boomers about to retire may provide a resilient US Consumption even if jobs decrease. It is one of the first known times in humanity that old generations retire as rich as boomers are now, which provides unforeseen challenges for inflation, even if the economy/employment takes a hit. About the Middle East deal, Israel agreed to the 20-Point Trump Plan to end the Gaza War and the Hamas leader agreeing to the plan just about an hour ago. Read More:How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownUS stocks sector divergence raises red flagsDow Jones Technical Outlook: Dow Tests Key Confluence Level. Is Another 500 + Point Slide Incoming? Back to the US Dollar, it's steep rally started to attract profit-taking flows in Equities, which corrected for the second time this week (particularly the Dow Jones). Gold also corrected above $100 from its $4,060 record highs in a sudden selloff – Similar flows can be seen in FX Markets and Cryptocurrencies. The charts are still far from bearish when looking at how much things have rallied this year. However, some concerns may arise: The 2025 trade has been about the United States losing its status as the Global leader, with the Trump Administration's efforts to isolate the US, particularly in the beginning of the year. But, the US is regaining some confidence, helping Ukraine again and resolving global conflicts. The US Dollar falling from 110.00 in January to 96.00 in July definitely assisted all assets to rally. Now, what will happen if the US Dollar goes the other way? Today might have been a snapshot of these flows. (I invite you to take a look at our most recent Dollar Index analysis!) Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView As mentioned in the title, the US Dollar had no pity for other assets. Every asset class is closing down, even Silver after breaking the $50 level. It is pretty logical: Almost every assets are denominated in US Dollar. When one goes up, the other tends to go down, even if logically, the relationship is not a 1 to 1. However, when such flows become trends, it tends to rock markets quite a bit. A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 9 – Source: OANDA Labs The USD rally didn't even leave any crumbs for other FX currencies. Only the Japanese Yen finishes slightly higher on the session (except against the Greenback) – A given looking at how fast it had been selling off since Monday and when looking at other asset-performance. Risk-off flows may still attract players to the Yen, at least when really nothing else is rallying. A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The daily session isn't exactly over, with Fed's Daly appearing later today and Bowman speaking now. But most importantly, AUD traders will have to log in to listen to RBA Governor Bullock's speech at 18:00 ET. Tomorrow focuses almost only on North America, with a particular focus on Canadian Employment at 8:30 AM ET (expected at +5K – Expectations tend to be volatile), and the U-of-Mich Surveys at 10:00 A.M. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.