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Last week, Ethereum (ETH) prices fell below $4,000 amidst a general crypto market onslaught marked by heavy liquidations. However, the prominent altcoin soon made a quick bounce off the $3,800 price region and has since slipped into consolidation. Notably, popular crypto analyst Lark Davis is tipping Ethereum to make a euphoric market rebound with a potential all-time high on the cards. Ethereum RSI Flashes Bullish Signal After Fall Into Deep Oversold Zone The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. It is generally used to identify when an asset is overbought, i.e., an overheated market, or oversold, i.e., potentially undervalued and could attract heavy accumulation activity. According to Lark Davis, Ethereum’s price has crashed by over 20% in the past two weeks. Notably, this price loss has pushed the asset’s RSI into its most oversold zone since April lows. When this previously occurred, Ethereum popularly surged by 134% in the following two months. The altcoin now finds itself in a similar situation, with its RSI touching around 39.95. With expectations that the crypto market will turn bullish in Q4, Davis explains that this rare RSI signal could trigger a parabolic Ethereum price surge. In a separate post, fellow market expert Michaël van de Poppe shared some insights into this market behavior, highlighting that September has been a historically bad month for Ethereum, alongside the general market. However, market data also shows that Q4 and Q1 are traditionally bullish. If Ethereum maintains this behaviour, Lark Davis is postulating the altcoin will experience a possible rally to $7,000-$8,000, indicating a potential 100% price gain from current market levels. Ethereum Price Overview At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,006, reflecting price losses of 0.32% and 10.7% in the past one and seven days, respectively. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume has crashed by 57.49% and is now valued at $21.66 billion. Looking to the next month, Ethereum is likely to maintain its current rebound as Q4 begins. Interestingly, the altcoin has recorded an average monthly return of 6.94% and a median monthly return of 1.94% in October, indicating strong potential for market growth. However, Lark Davis has identified an important support level around the $3,800-$3,900. The analyst warns that Ethereum bulls must maintain this price floor to preserve their current bullish structure. Meanwhile, with a market cap of $483.26 billion, Ethereum continues to rank as the second-largest cryptocurrency.

Dogecoin’s price action is working on a rebound after hitting $0.222 in the past 24 hours. Zooming out into a larger timeframe shows the price structure on the weekly timeframe is pointing to an explosive breakout is in the making. Technical analysis shows that the meme coin, which has already shown it can deliver extraordinary rallies, is now sitting on a powder keg that will send it to new all-time highs. Particularly, technical projections indicate that if the current trend continues, Dogecoin could surge to $1.30. Pattern Repetition Points To $1.3 Target The first interesting chart observation focuses on how Dogecoin rallies unfold in repeating waves of expansion. This analysis, which was posted on the social media platform X by Kamran Asghar, shows how Dogecoin has been following a repeating structure in the weekly candlestick timeframe chart. In late 2023, the Dogecoin price broke out of consolidation with a 300% surge, followed by another wave in 2024 that delivered a 500% rally from trendline support to resistance. Each cycle began with a bounce from the ascending white trendline shown on the weekly chart below, which has consistently acted as the backbone of Dogecoin’s long-term uptrend. Now, the pattern is setting up for what could be an 800% rally, highlighted in the green projection box on the chart below. This move, if completed, would see the Dogecoin price rallying past its current all-time high of $0.7316 and finally breaking above the $1 price level. Particularly, the projection puts Dogecoin rallying more than 800% to reach a price target around $1.30. Chart Image From X: Kamran Asghar Dogecoin Bullish Channel Still Intact Since 2021 Another technical analysis looks at a broader view of Dogecoin’s performance over the last four years. Price action on the weekly timeframe is plotted within a colored channel system, starting from the 2021 breakout, as shown in the chart below. The lower orange line has consistently acted as support, while the green midline has worked as a pivot point. Lastly, the upper blue line is serving as resistance. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.23, and this is just between the green midline and the orange support, meaning the bullish structure is still playing out. According to analyst KrissPax, who posted the technical analysis on the social media platform X, Dogecoin is still on track to keep moving to the upper band of the channel, which is marked in blue. Reaching this upper band would put the meme coin in the $0.70 to $1.00 range and retesting its all-time high in 2021. However, in this case, the first step would be to break above the green midline, which is currently around $0.4. Chart Image From X: KrissPax Meanwhile, Dogecoin is trading at $0.23, up by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Investors are awaiting the SEC’s approval of a Spot Dogecoin ETF. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

CryptoWzrd noted in a fresh update that Chainlink ended the day on a bullish note, with signs pointing to more upside ahead. The strength in LINKBTC is adding momentum, suggesting further pressure from the bulls. On the intraday chart, the $22 level is emerging as the next key bullish zone, while lower time frames remain the focus for spotting the next scalp opportunity. LINKBTC To Trigger A Reversal For Chainlink In an elaborate analysis, CryptoWzrd confirmed a strong bullish close for both the price of Chainlink and the LINK/BTC pairing. Notably, the LINK/BTC pair printed a powerful bullish daily candle, an event that coincided with a decrease in Bitcoin’s dominance. This simultaneous action suggests that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into altcoins like LINK, providing significant underlying strength. The analyst believes that a key confirmation of a major reversal is near. Achieving just one more bullish daily close from the LINK/BTC pair would offer further bullish momentum, which would solidify the reversal. Such a development would significantly aid LINK in becoming more bullish from its present price location. Looking at the price structure, the analysis identifies $20 as the primary daily support level for Chainlink. The current setup, driven by the strength in the LINK/BTC pair, suggests that if a second consecutive bullish daily close occurs, it could spur a rapid V-shape recovery. This implies that the recent dip would be quickly and aggressively retraced. Should this V-shape recovery materialize, the immediate outlook points to a rally toward key resistance targets such as $25, followed by the more ambitious target of $30. Holding Key Resistance Zone Could Unlock Fresh Long Opportunities CryptoWzrd highlighted that both volatility and a strong underlying bullish bias characterized the intraday chart. A key takeaway is that a move above the $22 resistance level is an indicator of strength. Based on this impending move, the analyst stated his intention to look for a long position. The analyst also outlined an alternate entry scenario that could present itself sooner. He suggested that if a bearish pullback were to occur from the current price location, followed immediately by a decisive bullish reversal, this reversal pattern could trigger an early long opportunity. Meanwhile, an immediate downside support level to watch is identified at $19.80. For the time being, the analyst is in a waiting period, as the current environment is ambiguous in terms of immediate entry. CryptoWzrd concluded that the next course of action is to wait for the market to further develop and produce chart formation that confirms the direction.

The Hyperliquid blockchain, one of the fastest-rising names in decentralized finance (DeFi), is facing a mounting security crisis after a string of high-profile incidents cast doubt on the safety of its money markets. On September 27, Hyperdrive, a flagship yield protocol on Hyperliquid, was forced to pause all markets following a confirmed exploit that drained an estimated $700,000 from two compromised Treasury Market positions. Supreme FinancePriceMarket CapHYPE$168.35K24h7d30d1yAll time What’s Behind the Hyperdrive Hack? Developers attributed the breach to a flaw in operator permissions: users had designated Hyperdrive’s Router as an operator, effectively granting it sweeping access to call any whitelisted contract. Attackers leveraged that loophole to manipulate positions and extract funds. Hyperdrive insisted the thBILL asset and HYPED governance token were not directly impacted, but the damage extended beyond the stolen funds. The incident marked the second major attack in 48 hours on Hyperliquid’s DeFi ecosystem. Just a day earlier, HyperVault, another yield protocol, saw $3.6M bridged out and laundered through Tornado Cash before its website went offline and social media accounts were deleted, pointing to an exit scam. DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 Mounting Exploit Pressure on Hyperliquid: Network Under Siege? The rapid sequence of losses has sharpened questions about Hyperliquid’s resilience. Community sentiment has shifted from celebrating Hyperliquid’s speed and composability to anxiety that the network is becoming a magnet for attackers. Security researchers say the problems may run deeper than individual protocol missteps. Hyperliquid, launched just last year with a $1.6Bn HYPE airdrop, operates on a high-throughput chain built atop Arbitrum. Its design, prioritizing ultra-fast execution, has long raised concerns about centralization. The network runs on just four validators, a concentration critics argue could make it highly vulnerable to coordinated breaches. Those warnings gained traction in December 2024 when blockchain sleuths linked North Korean Lazarus Group wallets to test transactions on Hyperliquid. MetaMask’s Taylor Monahan warned at the time that DPRK hackers were “kicking the tires” of the chain to identify exploits. While Hyperliquid Labs dismissed the claims, the HYPE token plunged over 20% in a single day as investors fled. (Source – HYPE USDT, TradingView) DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 The latest breaches appear to have reignited those fears. On-chain analytics show rising net outflows from Hyperliquid protocols since Friday, with over $200M in USDC withdrawn in less than 24 hours. The HYPE token, which reached a market cap above $11Bn earlier this year, has shed double-digit percentages in weekend trading. The reputational hit extends beyond price action. Institutions exploring exposure to Hyperliquid are now weighing whether its young ecosystem can support the level of security required for scaling. The fact that both Hyperdrive and HyperVault targeted yield-hungry retail users only deepens concerns that Hyperliquid has become fertile ground for opportunistic attackers. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Is a Security Crisis Heading For Hyperliquid? Flagship Protocol Hacked appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The cryptocurrency market is in a tense mood after Bitcoin lost important price levels this week, and investor sentiment has taken a beating. This caused the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index to plunge by 16 points in a single day, sinking to 28 yesterday, its lowest level since March. At the time of writing, the index has recovered slightly to 33, but it still in the Fear zone. This may unsettle many investors, but history shows that fearful conditions may be blessings in disguise for Bitcoin investors. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Drops To 28 This week has been tough for many cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. Bitcoin, which started the week above $115,000, entered into an extended decline that saw it break below $110,000, which in turn led to liquidations of over $1 billion worth of positions across the industry. This move also saw Ethereum break below $4,000, alongside altcoins likes XRP, Solana extending to the downside. Taken together, these moves erased the cautious optimism of last week, when the index sat at a neutral level of 48. Instead, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index fell to as low as 28, which is a dramatic 16 point plunge in a single day. This crash in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index shows just how fast sentiment can reverse when important price thresholds fail to hold. However, while the fearful mood might appear to be a bearish hint, these conditions could be an opportunity for long-term traders. The Fear and Greed Index has historically been a contrarian indicator, with extreme fear levels typically appearing before significant rebounds. Earlier in March, when the index last reached similar depths, Bitcoin was trading at a relative low around $83,000. Today, even after breaking below 30 on the index again, Bitcoin is about $27,000 higher than it was in March. Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me Constructive Outlook For The Coming Weeks The broader takeaway from this sentiment shift is that the crypto market may be closer to its next recovery phase than many expect. The index’s slight rebound to 33 today from yesterday’s low of 28 shows that some traders are already positioning for a turnaround. For one, Bitcoin’s current prices could give savvy investors the chance to accumulate Bitcoin at discount prices. Bitcoin rarely sustains rallies in conditions of overwhelming greed. Instead, consolidations and corrections reset sentiment and make room for healthier growth. For instance, crypto analyst Michael Pizzino said in a post on X, that the most recent fear could be the turning point Bitcoin and crypto has been waiting for. In this sense, the fearful environment may be setting the stage for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to build bullish momentum once selling pressure eases. Now, the most important thing is for the Bitcoin price to reestablish itself above $110,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,220. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Justin Sun and Tron’s legal battle with Bloomberg just got a lot bigger and a whole lot more complex. Here’s what’s next in the Tron founder’s legal dispute. A federal judge’s order and a fresh salvo from Justin Sun’s camp have escalated the TRON founder’s fight with Bloomberg over the disclosure of his crypto holdings. TRON founder Justin Sun’s legal dispute with Bloomberg deepened this weekend after his representatives accused the news outlet of breaking a confidentiality promise. The statement came days after a Delaware federal judge rejected Sun’s request to block Bloomberg from publishing details of his personal wealth. The update was posted on Sunday on TRON DAO’s Medium page. Sun’s team said the case is about “accountability” and claimed “some of what [Bloomberg] published was blatantly inaccurate.” What Asset Figures Reported by Bloomberg Were Highlighted in Court? On September 22, Judge Colm Connolly denied Sun’s bid for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction. The court said Sun had not shown a strong chance of winning or proof of irreparable harm. Sun’s legal team stressed that Judge Colm F. Connolly’s denial was based only on the high bar for early injunctions, not on the strength of their case. They argued that Bloomberg “broke a contractual promise of confidentiality” in publishing details of his holdings. In his order, Judge Connolly said Sun had not shown enough proof that Bloomberg agreed to keep the information private. He also pointed to Sun’s own prior disclosures that weakened his claim to confidentiality. The ruling cited Bloomberg’s reported numbers: more than 60Bn TRX, about 17,000 BTC, 224,000 ETH, and 700M USDT. The court decision came the same week Bloomberg ran a prominent feature on Sun, detailing his growing profile in US political circles. The coverage highlighted public interest in his wealth and influence, underscoring why the dispute over confidentiality has drawn so much attention. https://twitter.com/coryklippsten/status/1955870557846610302 DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 What Are Justin Sun’s Main Allegations Against Bloomberg? The order also cited sworn statements from Bloomberg journalists, who denied making any confidentiality pledge, and noted that some of the asset figures matched outside estimates and Sun’s public posts. Sun’s lawsuit, filed in August, alleges that Bloomberg unlawfully disclosed private facts and broke a promise tied to its Aug. 11 Billionaires Index profile. His team insists the case is contractual, saying “the First Amendment does not give media companies a right to breach contracts or spread misinformation.” As per Coingecko data, TRX traded near $0.338 on Sunday with a market cap of $32Bn, showing little immediate reaction to the legal fight. TronPriceMarket CapTRX$29.12B24h7d30d1yAll time The case highlights the tension between transparency about a high-profile crypto executive’s wealth and claims of privacy. As the dispute moves forward, more hearings are expected. The case continues on the merits in Delaware. The court’s denial applies only to interim relief; discovery and further motions could follow, or the parties could move toward settlement. For now, Bloomberg’s reporting remains online, and Sun’s camp says it will “continue to challenge misinformation” as proceedings unfold. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Justin Sun’s Battle With Bloomberg Just Got Bigger appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The cryptocurrency market remains in disarray following widespread declines, yet the XRP price continues to attract the attention of analysts who maintain an optimistic outlook. One expert noted that XRP has just printed a rare and bullish setup, with multiple chart indicators aligning in support of upward momentum. XRP Price Forms Rare Multi-Layered Bullish Setup According to crypto market expert Bobby A, XRP is in a rare market position, consolidating above key historical levels while preparing for a move that could lead to new all-time highs. He noted that different indicators are aligning in support of a possible uptrend. In a chart shared on X social media, Bobby explained that XRP’s market capitalization has been holding above its 2018 peak for more than 300 days, an uncommon show of strength amid the recent downturn. This long consolidation above a major resistance-turned support level suggests a massive build-up of energy before the next leg higher. He argues that this base formation signals a potentially explosive move to the upside, with the next market cap targets identified at $173 billion and a peak around $727 billion. On the price front, Bobby reveals that XRP has been forming a multi-month bullish flag pattern on its charts. He labels the critical support zones as “Base Camp 1” around $1.9 and “Base Camp 2” at $2.89—both of which have been successfully defended. He further highlighted that the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also positioning itself for one final push toward overbought territory, often a precursor to a sharp upward move. Based on his projections, XRP’s take profit zones sit between $5 and $13, levels that would mark fresh all-time highs. Bobby’s analysis highlights that XRP’s indicators are “firing on all cylinders,” with momentum across higher timeframes aligning for a potentially powerful surge. He further pointed out that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), currently at 58.7%, is set to retrace toward the mid-to-low 40% zone soon. Such a move would enable altcoins like XRP to capture a larger market share, thereby reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish breakout. The analyst described this rare alignment as a generational setup that occurs only a few times in a decade. Bearish Divergence Sparks Short-Term XRP Sell-Off While XRP appears to be resisting the present market downturn, not all analysts share an immediate bullish sentiment. Crypto expert JD has warned about a Bearish Divergence forming on XRP’s weekly chart—a signal that has now played out as expected. As shown in the chart, while XRP’s price made higher highs, the RSI indicator printed lower highs, creating a textbook Bearish Divergence pattern. This divergence has already led to a sharp 27% correction from the $3.37 take profit level that JD had previously identified. According to him, many market participants are now questioning why XRP has been under pressure despite broader optimism. JD argues that the Bearish Divergence was the clearest warning signal, and those who ignored it are now witnessing its full effect. He cautions that while XRP may still avoid a deeper breakdown into the “grey box” supply zone, the short-term trajectory remains bearish until momentum resets. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

US-listed spot Ether ETFs just logged five straight days of net outflows, adding pressure on Ethereum funds and signaling softer risk appetite from smaller investors. Farside data shows $248.4M left the products on Friday, pushing weekly redemptions to $795.8 million. Ether fell about -10% over the same stretch. It’s the longest pullback since the week ending Sept. 5, when the token traded near $4,300. “ETH”Price“ETH”24h7d30d1yAll time One big question hangs over the market: staking. Traders are waiting to see if US regulators will allow staking inside Ether ETFs. On Sept. 19, reports said Grayscale was preparing to stake part of its large ETH stack, widely read as a vote of confidence that the SEC could allow it. His view draws on realized price distribution, which maps where many addresses last bought ETH. These clusters often act like speed bumps for sell-offs. The $3,020 zone stands out, given the heavy past buying there. (Source: X) Holding that shelf would keep the trend constructive and limit downside after sharp moves. Lose it, and the market could retest deeper layers of support as late longs unwind. In short: respect $3,515 on pullbacks, treat $3,020 as the pivot, and see $2,772 as the failsafe in a stress event. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Is Ethereum Heading South? Week of Outflows Paint Bleak Picture for ETH USD appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

World Liberty Financial’s token, WLFI, tied to the Trump family, has burned 7.89M WLFI (worth about $1.43M) following a $1.06M buyback funded through DeFi liquidity fees. But how is impacting the WLFI price prediction? According to Lookonchain data, the project earned $1.01M by collecting 4.91M WLFI and $1.06M in liquidity earnings. For the past three weeks, WLFI has moved sideways between $0.18 and $0.22. This range has acted as both support and resistance, suggesting the market is building a base after its early launch volatility. The pattern reflects a period of accumulation, where neither buyers nor sellers have taken clear control. The projection line on the chart outlines a possible bullish scenario. If WLFI maintains support near the lower band, the setup signals room for a rally. Resistance levels appear around $0.30, $0.50, and $0.70, with a possible run toward $1.00 if momentum builds. The forecast also includes expected pullbacks, which would fit with a healthy uptrend rather than a straight rise. (Source: X) From a technical view, this resembles the classic shift from accumulation to expansion. Extended flat trading often precedes strong moves, especially in low-liquidity tokens. WLFI’s recent $1.4M buyback and burn adds to the pressure, creating conditions for a supply squeeze. Traders are watching closely to see if October brings the next upward leg. For now, WLFI remains inside its consolidation band. A decisive close above $0.22-$0.23 could start a trend reversal, turning the current quiet range into a momentum-driven rally. DISCOVER: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Trump Crypto Buybacks Just Burned $1.4M: WLFI Price Prediction For October? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

After what seemed like a strong start to September, the Bitcoin price is pretty much back where it began the month. With the historically bullish “Uptober” now in sight, investors are hoping that the premier cryptocurrency will be able to find some relief and perhaps enjoy some upward momentum in the coming weeks. However, the latest on-chain revelation suggests that the Bitcoin price is at risk of further downward pressure over the next few weeks. According to a prominent analyst on social media platform X, the market leader has fallen below a crucial level, which could trigger a further 10% price drawdown. BTC To Enter ‘Correction Process’ In Next 2-3 Months? On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the X platform to share an update on the Bitcoin price in relation to the Short-Term Holder (STH)’s Realized Price. According to the crypto pundit, the BTC price has now broken beneath the STH Realized Price—around $111,500—for the fourth time this year. For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is a metric that estimates the average price at which Bitcoin short-term investors (holding for less than 115 days) purchased their coins. Because it represents the average cost basis of this relevant investor cohort, the STH Realized Price often acts as a dynamic support and resistance level. Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin price had previously fallen below the STH Realized Price three times so far during this bull run, which started in November 2022. According to the on-chain analyst, the market leader entered a consolidation phase when this happened the past three times. In the first incident of BTC slipping beneath STH Realized Price, the Bitcoin price witnessed an over 8% decline between August and October 2023. Meanwhile, the flagship cryptocurrency’s value declined by more than 13% between June 2024 and October 2024 in the second occurrence. Most recently, the market leader dipped almost 8% between February and April 2025 when the Bitcoin price fell below the STH Realized Price. Kesmeci highlighted that, on average, these consolidation phases lasted 77 days and each resulted in an almost 10% loss in BTC’s value. Kesmeci concluded that the Bitcoin price could enter a consolidation/correction phase if it does close the week and perhaps the month beneath the STH Realized Price around $111,500. And if history does repeat itself, investors could see the market lose as much as 10% over the next two to three months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $109,538, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

According to reports, XRP is trading near $2.78 as markets head toward the year-end, with less than 100 days left until 2026. The token slipped more than 10% in the last week, a pullback that comes after stronger showings earlier this year. Traders and analysts are watching a mix of on-chain signals and community chatter for clues about whether XRP can push into higher price tiers before the calendar flips. Community Predicted Targets Social media has become the loudest forum for price calls. One long-time Bitcoin investor active since 2013, who posts as Pumpius, put a $25 target on XRP before 2026 — a move that would mean over nine-fold gains from current levels. Other voices have offered different ceilings: Alex Cobb has floated $22 by December, some expect $10, while a few see at least $5 as a nearer-term milestone. A handful of commenters even suggested figures above $30, tying those hopes to potential ETF flows. Replies on the thread ranged from bullish cheers to reminders to aim for smaller wins first, like cracking $4. ETF Interest And Market Flows Based on reports, optimism around potential XRP ETFs is a core driver behind the larger forecasts. Executives such as the CEO of Canary Capital have suggested that ETFs could open the door to billions of dollars of new inflows. That thesis has brought new life to bull cases and provided momentum to speculation about double-digit prices. Meanwhile, market behavior has been mixed: XRP had its strong periods in January and once more in July, yet momentum was lost thereafter, leaving traders hesitant as they balance ETF optimism with subsequent price weakness. Trading Behavior And On-Chain Signals XRP is seen to have a lower dormancy rate than Bitcoin and Ethereum in recent chain data. That indicates the units of XRP change hands more frequently, which generally means active usage — payments, transfers, and liquidity trades. Reports indicate that Bitcoin’s higher dormancy corresponds with a stronger “store of value” mental attitude, whereas Ethereum’s dormancy corresponds with developer and DeFi activity. XRP’s active circulation fits Ripple’s long-stated push to make the token a bridge asset for payments, rather than a coin mainly held for long-term gains. Dormancy Signals And Implications If transactional use continues to rise, it may help XRP build a case as a utility-driven asset. But higher movement alone does not guarantee price appreciation. Accumulation patterns also matter: assets that are hoarded tend to build scarcity narratives that can support higher valuations. Analysts and investors will likely watch whether greater on-chain use is matched by fresh buying pressure, including from institutional products, before updating their long-term views. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

‘Week Ahead Highlights: US jobs data, ISM surveys, Eurozone inflation, RBA policy MON:N/A TUE: RBA Announcement, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Japanese Retail Sales (Aug), Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs Final (Sep), UK GDP (Q2), French CPI Prelim (Sep), German CPI Prelim (Sep), EZ Sentiment Survey (Sep). WED: RBI Policy Announcement; Japanese Tankan (Q3), US, EZ & UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Sep), US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep). THU: Swiss CPI (Sep), EZ Unemployment (Aug), US Challenger Layoffs (Sep), Weekly Claims, Factory Orders. FRI: Japanese Unemployment (Aug), Turkish CPI (Sep), EZ & UK Composite PMIs (Sep), EZ Producer Prices (Aug), US NFP (Sep), ISM Services (Sep). SAT: Japanese LDP Leadership Election. RBA POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The RBA is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60% at its September 30th meeting, with markets pricing a 93% chance of such an outcome (and a 7% chance of a cut), with the next 25bps cut not fully priced in until March 2026. The meeting will not include updated forecasts. Analysts have suggested that the upside surprise in Augustʼs monthly CPI (3.0% Y/Y vs. 2.8% prior) has tempered the case for near-term easing, although the trimmed mean eased to 2.6% from 2.7%. Westpac continues to expect a 25bps rate cut in November, though acknowledges that the timing is now less certain, noting that the RBA is unlikely to overreact to one month of stronger data given the broader inflation outlook remains consistent with the target. The desk suggests that with inflation at target and the labour market gradually loosening, policy need not remain restrictive for an extended period. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered expects policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Q3 CPI release on October 29th, which Governor Bullock has previously emphasised as a key input to future decisions. RBI POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The RBI is expected to keep its Repo Rate unchanged at 5.50% at its October 1st announcement, with a Reuters poll showing 45 of 61 economists forecasting a hold, while 16 look for a 25bps cut. Economists note that the MPC is likely to remain cautious as it assesses the transmission of earlier rate cuts, with heavy government spending driving Q2 GDP growth to 7.8% Y/Y, while private investment remains subdued. The INR recently fell to record lows amid trade tensions with the US and tighter H-1B visa rules (India being the largest beneficiary of these visa types), which analysts suggest weighed on portfolio inflows. Inflation has stayed within the RBIʼs 2-6% target band since November, though the INRʼs depreciation against the USD has added upside risks. Looking further out into the year, a slim majority of economists (26 of 50) expect the Repo Rate to remain unchanged through at least the end of 2025. EZ HICP (WED): Expectations are for HICP in September to rise to 2.2% Y/Y from 2.0%, with the super-core metric seen holding steady at 2.3% Y/Y. As a reminder, the prior report showed the headline print held steady at 2.0% Y/Y, super-core remained at 2.3% and the services metric slipped to 3.1% Y/Y from 3.2%. Overall, the series was seen as one of inflation stabilising in the Eurozone with the headline measure holding at target for a third consecutive month. This time around, Investec (and as also suggested by the consensus view), looks for a “temporary” departure from target on account of “volatile elements rather than a change in the underlying trend.” More specifically, the desk notes ”energy prices are likely to provide an upward influence given a smaller fall in fuel prices this month than that seen a year ago. Similarly, services prices may see a temporary uptick linked to tourism-related costs.” That said, underlying price pressures are likely to remain the same as those seen in the August report. From a policy perspective, the release is unlikely to have any sway on the ECB with the Bank on hold for the near-term, absent a marked deterioration in the Eurozone growth outlook. This is reflected in market pricing with just 2bps of loosening seen by year-end. Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days US ISM MANUFACTURING (WED): The headline is expected to improve slightly to 49.2 from 48.7, though remain below the 50- mark, which separates expansion from contraction. As a basis of comparison, S&P Globalʼs flash US Manufacturing fell to a twomonth low of 52.0 in September from 53.0 in August, while the Output Index also fell to a two-month low of 52.1 (vs 55.2 in August). Manufacturing output rose for a fourth consecutive month, but the pace of expansion slowed sharply from Augustʼs 39-month high. New order inflows weakened, partly due to export losses from tariffs. Tariffs continued to drive higher input costs, with manufacturing input price inflation among the highest since the pandemic, though slightly down from August. Fewer companies were able to pass costs to customers, suggesting squeezed margins but potential moderation in inflation. Disappointing sales growth led to unprecedented inventory accumulation, which could also support softer inflation in coming months, the report added US JOBS REPORT (FRI): The consensus looks for 39k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the economy in September (vs 22k previously). The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the prior reading. As the Fed pivots its attention onto labour market weakness, analysts will be closely watching whether the headline figure is above or below the estimated breakeven rate, which Fed Chair Powell estimates is between 0-50k. Powell noted that the labour market is cooling, and now policymakers are turning their attention to this side of the mandate. He said that labour demand is softening faster than supply, partly influenced by immigration and possibly tariffs, but although payrolls are weakening, Powell still sees unemployment as low (the latest Fed projections see unemployment at 4.5% at the end of this year, easing to 4.4% next year, and 4.3% in 2027, before settling at 4.2% in the long-term). Analysts will also be looking at the data in the context of future Fed rate cuts; dovish pricing took a knock this week after stronger-than-expected economic data (GDP was revised up significantly for Q2). Currently, markets are discounting 39bps of cuts through the end of the year (implying one 25bps reduction has been discounted, and there is around a 50/50 chance of a second cut). The Fed itself see the FFR target falling to 3.50-3.75% this year (implying two 25bps cuts). US ISM SERVICES (FRI): The consensus expects the ISM services headline to be unchanged at 52.0 in September. As a basis for comparison, S&P Globalʼs flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 53.9 in September from 54.5 in August, marking a three-month low. Growth in the services sector slowed for a second consecutive month, the weakest since June, as weaker domestic demand offset the first rise in exports since March. New order inflows showed the smallest increase for three months. Companiesʼ expectations for output over the year ahead improved to a four-month high, though remained below long-run averages, while service sector sentiment rose to its highest level since May. Firms across both manufacturing and services faced difficulties passing higher costs to customers due to weak demand and rising competition. Goods price inflation fell sharply to its lowest since January, and service sector selling prices increased at the slowest rate since April. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com The post Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights September 29th-October 3rd appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

The price of Bitcoin has been under intense bearish pressure over the past week, falling below the $110,000 mark on Thursday, September 25. While the premier cryptocurrency has managed to stop bleeding in the past day, the BTC price has struggled to reclaim the psychological $110,000 level. Interestingly, the latest readings of a technical analysis indicator suggest that the Bitcoin price might have just reached a bottom and could be ready for a rebound. Has The Bitcoin Price Reached A Bottom? In a September 26 post on the X platform, a crypto analyst named after the renowned economist Frank Fetter revealed that the price of Bitcoin might have just entered a buy zone. This price projection is based on the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily BTC price chart. The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical price analysis to assess the magnitude and speed at which an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator is usually used to analyze whether a crypto asset (Bitcoin, in this case) is being overbought or oversold, suggesting a possible price or trend reversal. When the relative strength index breaks above 70, it typically indicates an overbought market condition, with the asset’s price likely to face selling pressure. Meanwhile, an RSI value below 30 implies that the market is in an oversold condition, with price on the verge of a potential rebound. According to Fetter, the Bitcoin relative strength index on the daily chart has fallen to its lowest level since the April price bottom of $74,000. This price downturn, which was triggered by the tariff war between the United States and China, saw the RSI oscillator fall beneath the 30 threshold in March. Since bottoming out at the $74,000 mark and the RSI low in April, the Bitcoin price has since gone on to set multiple all-time highs. If history is anything to go by, there is a chance that the flagship cryptocurrency could find support at its current price and run up to a new high. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $109,331, reflecting a mere 0.2% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is down by more than 5% on the weekly timeframe. Crypto Market Enters ‘Fear’ Zone The crypto Fear & Greed Index is another signal suggesting a buy opportunity in the Bitcoin market at the moment. According to the latest on-chain data from Alphractal, this metric has dropped to 28, signaling strong fear amongst digital asset investors. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index of the stock market is at a neutral level, meaning that pessimism has yet to hit the traditional markets. With the crypto Fear & Greed Index at its lowest level since April 2025, the divergence from the traditional markets suggests potential accumulation opportunities in the digital asset market.

Market expert Tony Severino has raised some concerns with the current Bitcoin price action on the weekly chart. This comes as the flagship crypto trades below $110,000, with predictions that it could further drop below the psychological $100,000 level. Bitcoin Price Forms Bearish Pattern On Weekly Chart Severino revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price is potentially forming an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart, something he is wary of. He noted that this pattern is forming right at the Bollinger Band basis line, at around $111,600, during the tightest BB squeeze in BTC’s history. The market expert had earlier revealed that the Bitcoin price’s weekly Bollinger Bands are officially the tightest in the entire history of BTCUSD price action. Essentially, BTC is currently trading within a tight range, indicating low volatility. Severino’s accompanying chart shows that the upper BB is at around $122,000, the basis BB is at $111,600, while the lower BB is at $101,000. Meanwhile, the Evening Star pattern suggests that the bears are taking control from the bulls, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of a further downtrend. With the Bollinger bands being this tight, Severino may be cautious of how this could lead to a BTC decline to the lower BB basis. Crypto analyst Bob Loukas confirmed that the bears are in control and indicated that BTC could still drop below $100,000. He noted that the Bitcoin price is looking to print its Weekly Cycle Low, although he opined that BTC is holding up well despite the current downtrend. The analyst declared that a rally to $118,000 will confirm the start of a new cycle. Until then, the bears will remain in control. His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could risk dropping below $100,000 during this period when the bears are in control. However, in the long run, Loukas still expects the Bitcoin price to rally to as high as $140,000. BTC Needs To Reclaim $116,300 Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also warned that the Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $116,300 or risk dropping as low as $94,334 based on the Pricing Bands. He had earlier stated that $107,200 is the crucial support for Bitcoin. The analyst claimed that a drop below that support level would put $100,000 or even $93,000 in play. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that the Bitcoin price has broken below the trendline at $110,000. He remarked that confirmation is still needed and that the lagging span must follow to validate this bearish move. However, the analyst is one of those who doesn’t believe that BTC has topped, noting that the market is in a period of fear and that this has never marked the cycle top. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $109,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin’s market structure is showing signs of cycle alignment that could delay a true bottom until October. As technical signals converge, the focus shifts to whether this timing will mark a deeper continuation of the correction or the groundwork for a stronger rebound. Macro Picture Remains Bearish With $99,000 Target In a new insight shared on X, analyst TARA provided an update on Bitcoin’s price action, stating that “the fight continues” and that the internal “waves are such a mess right now.” The current situation reflects a highly complex market environment where the short-term and mid-term technical signals are contradictory: the immediate trend is categorized as bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish. The analyst noted that Bitcoin found support at a critical technical cluster defined by a 0.618 extension and a specific 0.854 support level, a confluence that indicates buyers stepped in decisively. TARA emphasizes the significance of this hold, stating that if Bitcoin had dropped any lower, it would have “invalidated any short-term bullish scenarios. Despite the short-term strength, Bitcoin has yet to test the resistance, which is now identified at $114,400. TARA points to this level as the immediate target if the price can successfully turn around and continue its current upward trajectory. However, TARA concludes with a strong reminder about the macro trend, which remains bearish, with the full target for this entire correction remaining at approximately $99,000. Time Cycles Point To Bearish TK Cross Formation Dr. Cat, in a recent update, explained that a renewal of the September 25th low at $108,652 after September 28th would be a critical signal for Bitcoin. Such a move would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, suggesting that the market may not find a bottom before October 1st, with the possibility extending toward October 3rd (±2 days) based on the daily chart outlook. If the low is revisited, it would likely cause the Kijun Sen to turn downward, setting up a valid bearish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross. Meanwhile, the Chikou Span (CS) is also positioned in a way that shows it is preparing for its own bearish cross, further reinforcing the possibility of continued downside pressure. Dr. Cat reminded followers of a prediction made roughly three weeks earlier, where the analyst stated that the market bottom should not be expected before October. That earlier analysis was grounded on the monthly chart. Now, the daily chart appears to be coming into alignment with the monthly outlook. If Bitcoin does in fact renew the September low within the stated timeframe, this would likely serve as the trigger confirming the bearish continuation.

October brings a convergence of pivotal events on both the economic and geopolitical fronts, shaping a volatile global outlook. From looming tariff battles in Washington and monetary policy decisions in Frankfurt to military posturing in Eastern Europe and high-level political signaling in Beijing, this month may set the tone for the final stretch of 2025 and beyond. At the same time, in a repeat of a unique and macabre political dynamic, the risk of a partial US federal government closure due to the lack spending authorization as of October 1 is very high. Both parties think they have something to gain, or less to lose from a shutdown. In addition to the disruption and hardship it directly causes, a rule of thumb is that a month-long shutdown is a 0.4%-0.5% drag on GDP. Meanwhile, talks between senior Chinese and American officials failed to deliver the pre-conditions for a summit, but President Trump and President Xi will meet on the sidelines of the APEC meeting at the end of the month in South Korea. It seems likely that the tariff truce between the two largest economies will be extended for another 90 days and into early next year. U.S. Tariffs in the Spotlight In the United States, attention is increasingly turning to the administration’s use of sectoral tariffs. After years of bipartisan pressure for a more protectionist stance—especially toward China and strategic industries—Washington has been weighing new tariffs. Effective October 1, the US announced 100% tariff on patented drugs (not generics), unless capacity is being built in the US (which seems to be a large exemption), a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets and vanities, and a 30% levy on upholstered furniture. The administration's tariff plans do not appear exhausted, but as has often been the case, the effective tariffs are somewhat less than the declared rates, given the USMCA and other exemptions. New investigations have opened for robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices. The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a major case in early November that could reshape how tariffs are implemented. At issue is whether the executive branch can continue to use emergency powers under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to impose tariffs the so-called "reciprocal tariffs." A ruling against the administration could sharply curtail its flexibility in trade policy and recalibrate executive-congressional dynamics on economic security. Companies that are large importers, like General Motors, for example, says it has paid more than $5 bln in tariffs, and would ostensibly be reimbursed. However, a secondary market has reportedly risen for the claims on potential refunds. Markets are not yet pricing in major changes, but trade-sensitive sectors are watching closely. A preemptive announcement—or even rhetoric—could stir volatility, especially in equities tied to industrial production and multinational supply chains. At the same time, the 15% tariffs on vehicles produced in Japan and South Korea produced may retain their competitiveness given the increase in US domestic production, given the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum. The Fed’s October Meeting: All Eyes on Labor The Federal Reserve’s new Summary of Economic Projections saw a median projection for cuts at both of the FOMC meetings in Q4, October 28-29 and December 9-10. However, the dispersion of views, even excluding the newest governor Stephen Miran, is stark, and the band of uncertainty around the projections seem exceptionally wide. Despite a near constant barrage of criticism from the White House and Treasury, and the attempt to fire Governor Cook, the central bank's independence from partisan politics appears to remain intact, but there is a sense the vigilance remains necessary. It is clear that the deterioration of the US labor market triggered the Fed's reaction function. To be sure, it is not indifferent to the elevated price pressures but sees the rise in unemployment posing a greater immediate threat. In June, nine Fed officials thought there would not be a need to change rates this year. Alongside the September rate cut, at which no one dissented to stand pat, there were six (of 19) dots that did not anticipate the need for another cut this year. Fed Chair Powell explained that both the supply of labor and the demand for labor have weakened. The unemployment rate is a good barometer of the two forces. Previously, he suggested that the economy needed to generate 150k-200k jobs a month to avoid a rise in the unemployment rate. Now, he estimates the "break-even" rate between zero and 50k jobs. The median forecast in Bloomberg' survey is for a 50k increase in jobs in September, if a government shutdown does not interfere with the release of economic data. Disturbingly, the aggregate hours worked in the private sector fell in past three months. Europe’s Cautious Central Bank and Rising Geopolitical Risk Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) also meets at the end of October, but the tone there is more restrained. Eurozone inflation has declined, and growth remains tepid, particularly in Germany and Italy. Yet the ECB has signaled that it is in no rush to cut rates further, given lingering concerns about core inflation, financial stability, and the increase in infrastructure and defense spending. Unlike the US, where the economic debate centers on domestic demand and labor market health, Europe’s focus is increasingly geopolitical. This month saw a sharp escalation in military tensions in Poland, Romania, and Estonia. French and British fighter jets were sent to elevate the defense of NATO's eastern flank. While the incursions caused no physical damage, they rattled nerves across the continent. This episode underscores the complex and dangerous nature of Europe’s proximity to the Russia-Ukraine war, which is now in its third year. Since arguably a little before Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska in mid-August, Moscow has deepened and broadened its attack on Ukraine. The risk of miscalculation or escalation remains real, especially with NATO forces becoming more directly involved. China’s Political Drama and Economic Planning In China, October marks the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee—a significant political event that will shape the country’s next five-year plan, covering 2026 to 2030. This session arrives at a delicate time for President Xi Jinping, who continues to consolidate power while facing growing economic headwinds and suspicions of internal challenges. Economic growth has been uneven, weighed down by weak consumer confidence, a faltering property sector, and external trade pressures. The upcoming plan is expected to emphasize self-reliance in key sectors such as AI, energy, and semiconductors, as well as a potential recalibration of China’s “dual circulation” strategy. Despite the drop in exports to the US, China's trade surplus has grown. It has been easier for China to replace US demand, than for the US to replace the rare earth magnet, whose supply chain China dominates. Political observers are also attuned to internal dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party. Personnel shifts at the top levels of the military and security apparatus have fueled speculation about factional infighting. More intriguingly, there is quiet but growing talk that Xi could begin to signal a potential successor—an unexpected development that could alter the trajectory of Chinese politics after more than a decade of centralized control. A Month of Inflection October’s overlapping risks—legal, monetary, and military—underscore how deeply intertwined economic and geopolitical narratives have become. A tariff ruling in Washington could ripple into global trade patterns. The prospect of a series of Fed cuts will likely continue to weigh on the greenback. Yet, so far, foreign investors’ appetite or US bonds and stocks remain strong. The Treasury's monthly portfolio flow report (TIC) showed that in the first seven months, foreign investors bought about $788 bln of US financial assets. To provide some context, in the January-July 2024 period, foreign investors bought around $326 bln and in the same period in 2023, acquired almost $555.5 bln. Research by the Bank for International Settlements suggested earlier this year that investors were hedging the dollar risk, and more recent research says it is continuing. At the same time, Russia's war on Ukraine is threatening to widen. A more direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is a real possibility. In 2015, after several warnings, Türkiye shot down a Russian fighter jet in its airspace. The incident did not escalate, but confidence that this would be the case today in eastern Europe is not high. In some circles, there is heightened concern that such a confrontation in Europe could provide a distraction for China to step up its harassment of Taiwan. Bannockburn World Currency Index Bannockburn's GDP-weighted currency index of currencies representing the dozen largest economies weakened for the second month this year, as all, but a few fell, against the US dollar. That euro and Australian dollar eked out a minor 0.15% gain. Among the emerging market components, only the Brazilian real and Mexican peso rose (1.60%-1.70%). Those two currencies account for 4.6% of the index and benefitted from their relatively high interest rates. Of the G10 currencies, the yen and Canadian dollar was the worst performers, depreciating by 1.40%-1.60% against the greenback. The Russian ruble's slightly3% loss was the weakest component of the BWCI. Its weighting in the index is slightly less than 2.5%. BWCI has frayed the 91.00 area, which has more or less held since early August. A convincing break would lend credence to ideas that the dollar's upside correction that began with the Federal Reserve's press conference on September 17 may have a little more room to run. U.S. Dollar: There is a strong possibility that the federal government is shut down due to the lack of spending authorization as soon as October 1. It appears that Democratic and Republican officials think they have less to lose or more to gain from temporary government closure. In addition to the disruption and embarrassment, it would interrupt the schedule of economic reports, including the September employment report on October 3. A general rule of thumb is that a shutdown shaves GDP by about 0.1% a week. The first estimate for Q3 GDP is due in late October. There is a large discrepancy between the median in Bloomberg's survey of economists (1.7% annualized) and the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker (3.7%). Concerned about the deterioration in the labor market, and accepting that the tariffs are a one-off increase in price levels (even if drawn out over several months), the Federal Reserve's updated Summary of Economic Projections showed that a median view was for two more rate cuts this year and three next year would be appropriate. Still, an important takeaway is that there is a wide dispersion of views, even excluding the newest governor. Judging from some Fed comments, the bar to another dissent in favor of a 50 bp cut at October 28-29 FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the most likely outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at APEC may be another 90-day extension in the "tariff truce." Euro: The euro reached a new four-year high near $1.1920 last month before consolidating. The driver is not so much eurozone developments, or even EU developments, as it is the US side of the equation. And the broad dollar direction seems to be strongly influenced by US rates. The swaps market thinks the ECB is likely done easing policy in this cycle, while the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut by 100-125 bp by the end of next year. France's premium over Germany remains relatively wide near 80 bp for the ten-year following the recent downgrade, but there is no sense of systemic crisis and limited market impact. Similarly, Spain, Portugal, and Italy saw rating upgrades, and there was little market impact. Europe faces two important risks. The first is the escalation of the war in Ukraine and the seemingly related Russian violation of eastern European airspace. The UK and France have stepped up their protection of NATO's eastern flank. Thus far the markets have taken it in stride. The second comes from the US in the form of new sectoral tariffs, which could hit the aggregate economy that is already struggling to sustain forward momentum. After the consolidation period, we expect the euro's uptrend to resume. (As of September 26, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses) Spot: $1.1705 ($1.1587) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.1770 ($1.1648) One-month forward: $1.1725 ($1.1611) One-month implied vol: 6.3% (7.7%) Japanese Yen: Since early July, with a few notable exceptions, the dollar has traded mostly between JPY146 and around JPY150. As September winds down, the dollar was at the upper end of the range. Within that range, the exchange rate remains sensitive to the changes of US interest rates. Following the September Bank of Japan meeting that saw two dissents in favor of a hike, the first dissents under Governor Ueda’s leadership, market speculation of a rate hike this year were boosted. There is about a 55% chance of a hike in October discounted by the swaps market and almost an 80% chance of a move before the end of the year. However, after it grew by 2.2% at an annualized rate in Q2, the Japanese economy looks to have nearly stalled in Q3. Separately, the BOJ announced plans to sell JPY620 bln a year of the equity ETFs it bought under its version of Quantitative Easing. Given the stock market rally, the value of the BOJ's purchases (~JPY37 trillion) has doubled. The average daily pace of the sales looks minor (~$22 mln), which means the impact will be negligible but also that it will take over a century to divest entirely. The Liberal Democrat Party holds its leadership contest on October 4. The predictive markets show the son of former prime minister, Koizumi, is favored. There is a strong sense of continuity with the recent LDP governments. He advocates stronger wage increases and a supplemental budget to help cope with the higher inflation. Spot: JPY149.50 (JPY147.05) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY147.60 (JPY145.00) One-month forward: JPY149.00 (JPY146.60). One-month implied vol: 8.4% (9.4%) British Pound: Sterling reached $1.3725 in mid-September, its highest level since early July. As the dollar recovered, sterling returned to the $1.33-$1.36 range has dominated. The broad range for the past four months has been $1.32-$1.38. There was one false break out of the broad range. Since mid-April, the rolling 30-day correlation of changes in sterling and in the 10-year Gilt has been inverse, which means that higher bond yields in the UK are associated with a weaker pound. The Bank of England's base rate is 4.0%. The swaps market sees this as the top in the G10, with the effective Fed funds rate finishing the year near 3.65%. The UK economy may be expanding at a quarterly rate of 0.2% here in H2 25, but the elevated inflation appears to have tied the BOE's hands. But, in the coming year, the central bank will slow its Quantitative Tightening to GBP70 bln from GBP10 bln. Still, the combination of slow growth and sticky prices will intensify the government's challenges that will come to a head in the Autumn Budget statement late November. To be sure with the budget deficit is set to fall this year from 5.2% in 2024 to about 4.2%. The fiscal straits seem primarily due to politically inspired promises from the government. Spot: $1.3400 ($1.3504) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.3505 ($1.3600) One-month forward: $1.3405 ($1.35) One-month implied vol: 6.3% (6.9%) Canadian Dollar: For the better part of two months, the US dollar has traded in a CAD1.3820-CAD1.3925 range. As September winds down, the greenback is breaking higher and looks poised to challenge CAD1.40, which has not closed above since April. The Canadian dollar is sensitive to the broad direction of the US dollar. When the greenback is bid, as was the case in July, the Canadian dollar does well, and in fact, it was the strongest of the G10 currencies. September was a more difficult month for Canada. Despite the protection offered from the USMCA, the disruption of trade with the US was a significant drag on the Canadian economy, which contracted at a 1.6% annualized pace in Q2. That coupled with a weakening of the labor market spurred the Bank of Canada to extend its easing cycle, with a quarter-point cut in September, bringing the target rate to 2.50%. Indicative pricing in the derivative markets suggest that the cut was in addition to the cut that was previously envisioned. The economy may have stabilized in Q3, but real consumer spending appears to be slowing sharply. The risk is the terminal policy rate is lower than the 2.25% the market implies. Spot: CAD1.3940 (CAD 1.3741) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CAD1.3825 (CAD1.3700) One-month forward: CAD1.3920 (CAD1.3725) One-month implied vol: 4.3% (4.7%) Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar reached a new high for the year, with the last fuel provided by what seemed like a dovish FOMC statement. It reached almost $0.6710 before reversing lower. There may be potential toward the $0.6480-$0.6500 in a corrective phase. Reserve Bank Governor Bullock has tempered market enthusiasm additional rate cuts. The year-end rate implied by the futures market is near 3.35%, the highest since March. That implies another cut, which the market has discounted for the last meeting of the year in December. Strong labor and/or consumption data could give the market cause to reconsider the cut. Australia, like Canada and several European countries formally recognized Palestine. Previously, the US indicated that it would impact the US-Canada trade talks. The submarine deal under the AUKUS has seemed precarious to us during President Trump's second term, and this underscores the possibility. Over the medium-term, we look for the Australian dollar to appreciate into the $0.7000-$0.7200 area. Spot: $0.6545 ($0.6540) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $0.6600 ($0.6500) One-month forward: $0.6555 ($0.6545) One-month implied vol: 8.1% (8.1%) Mexican Peso: The attractive carry Mexico offers for dollar-based investors, coupled with the liquidity and relatively modest volatility make the peso an attractive part of carry trades. President Sheinbaum efforts to manage the relationship with the US has won high praise. Ahead of the formal re-negotiation of the USMCA treaty, Mexico is raising tariffs on countries it does not have trade agreements with, which hit China and its neighbors that are often accused to re-exporting the Mexico ("transshipment"). The USMCA protects Mexico and may still offer a cost-efficient platform to export to the US. Mexican growth is weak, and price pressures are firm. Even with the rate cut last month, bringing the overnight target rate to 7.50%, policy is still restrictive. The swaps market is pricing in a terminal rate near 7.0%, but we suspect that given the likelihood of several cuts by the Federal Reserve, Mexico's terminal rate could be closer to 6.50%. The dollar reached MXN18.20 last month, its lowest level since July 2024. Corrective pressures lifted it to almost MXN18.5650 before peso buyers re-emerged. The MXN18.18 area corresponds with a technical retracement target, and a break signals a test on the psychologically important MXN18.00 area. Below there, the next area of support around MXN17.50-60. Spot: MXN18.3670 (MXN18.8500) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: MXN18.6530 (MXN18.8500) One-month forward: MXN18.4280 (MXN18.7230) One-month implied vol: 8.4% (8.8%) Chinese Yuan: The Chinese yuan slipped by less than 0.10% through most of September, for a year-to-date gain of about 3.1%. In Trump's first term, the Treasury Department briefly formally charged Beijing with currency manipulation. Current Treasury Secretary Bessent has taken a different tact. He recognized and welcomed the appreciation of the yuan, and suggested it was a bigger problem for Europe than the US. The People's Bank of China indicated no change in FX policy and that it intends to keep the yuan broadly stable. China's mainland markets are closed for the first week of October. Later in October is the Fourth Plenary Session, usually where the next five-year plan is drafted. There has been some speculation that President Xi could signal a successor. At the end of the month, Xi will meet President Trump at the APEC meeting in South Korea. That fact that there was not a formal summit suggests the two sides are far apart on key issues. That said, the US has turned down some senior Taiwanese official visits to the US rejected a $400 mln arms order by Taipei. China's anti-involution campaign appears to have yielded few results so far and will likely continue. Spot: CNY7.1345 (CNY7.1307) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CNY7.1225 (CNY7.16501) One-month forward: CNY7.1055 (CNY7.0865) One-month implied vol: 4.8% (4.9%) Disclaimer

Following a rather turbulent trading week, Bitcoin prices now sit below $110,000, representing a 12% decline from its all-time high at $124,457. Amid this situation, popular analyst Ted Pillows has shared an audacious market prediction that would douse fears of an impending cycle top. Institutional Demand To Extend Bitcoin Market Cycle To 2026 A typical crypto market cycle has always peaked in Q4 of the fourth year. This timing usually matches the post-halving hype and a strong wave of retail and institutional market demand. Such behavior is observed in the last two cycles when Bitcoin reached a market top of $19,700 in December 2017, and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Ted Pillows postulates the present market is likely to present a different pattern, which aligns with the US business cycle. Generally, the US business policy centered around liquidity, interest rates, and inflation all play a heavy role in Bitcoin demand. Notably, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and market analysts expect the monetary authority to maintain this dovish approach for the next six months. In particular, JP Morgan predicts the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026. This drop in interest rates is expected to boost investors’ access to liquidity through borrowing and support investments in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has also changed the structure of inflows. Notably, these investments have improved the ease of institutional investment in Bitcoin, with the present cumulative ETF inflows valued at $57.23 billion. Importantly, these heavy inflows, coupled with the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, have all contributed to maturing the Bitcoin market that is now likely to be driven by macroeconomic cycles rather than the traditional crypto-native cycles. If US market forces prove dominant, Ted Pillows expects Bitcoin to reach a market peak in Q1 or Q2 2026, indicating the potential for higher price targets despite recent price drops. Bitcoin Heading To $112,000? Over the last few hours, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience in bouncing off the $109,000 price support. According to a separate analysis post by Pillows, the premier cryptocurrency is now likely headed to reclaim the $112,000 resistance price level. If market bulls successfully overcome this barrier, further analysis suggests a potential rise to $117,000. Alternatively, another retest of $109,000 could result in a decisive break below this support level, pushing prices as low as $101,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $109,420, reflecting a decline of 0.25% in the past day.

Today, in the latest news, the crypto market is unexpectedly calm after yesterday’s high-stakes trading options expiry. BTC USD pair is holding steady just under $110K, a surprise for those who expected brutal volatility. XRP USD pair shows minimal movement, as the market’s mood flatlined, despite the crazy news around it. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.18T24h7d30d1yAll time Ethereum and Solana USD pairs both posted mild gains, adding a green tinge to what was forecasted as a chaotic day. Despite widespread anticipation, there was no panic. The current sentiment is something that most crypto news outlets report today. XrpPriceMarket CapXRP$278.73B24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: 9+ Best Memecoin to Buy in 2025 BTC USD and XRP Crypto Are in The News Today: Stability Over Shock After Trading Option Expiry Looking at the numbers, we see a clear theme: resilience. According to CoinGlass, BTC ▲0.28% open interest dropped to $77 billion during the expiry, but has already bounced back to $78 billion. Big money is repositioning. The BTC USD pair, which is often the bellwether, is acting as a barometer of this calm. (source – BTC/USD, Open Interest, CoinGlass) Over on the XRP ▲2.62% side, reports that daily liquidations remain under $10 million, an unusually quiet stat given recent market conditions. (source – XRP Liquidation, Coinglass) DeFiLlama data puts total value locked (TVL) on crypto at around $150 billion, a marginal weekly increase. That may not seem huge, but in the context of low volatility, it means that capital is staying and adding. (source – DeFi TVL, Defillama) Meanwhile, ETH ▲3.12% is in the news today after its funding rates flipped positive again, displaying a long and hold sentiment. Solana, on the other hand, recorded a 5% DEX volume climb in the past 24 hours. With skew flattening and dealers no longer aggressively hedging, this calm period might signal a bullish “calm before the storm.” BTC dominance holds around 58%, indicating that the market might see an altcoin season soon. (source – BTC.D, TradingView) DISCOVER: 10+ Next Crypto to 100X In 2025 What happens next? Based on trend data, a slow grind upward is expected. News on crypto market today has Bitcoin up 0.8% over the last 24 hours, Ethereum by 1.2%, and XRP up 0.5%. Total liquidations are well below average at $150 million, pointing to lower risk in the system. Open interest for October is tilted bullish, with CoinGlass showing $78 billion in outstanding calls. Community sentiment is still under fear, after weeks of chops. Meanwhile, CoinGecko rankings show that altcoins like SOL ▲4.66% and BNB ▲3.92% are slightly outperforming Bitcoin, which is a good sign for the altcoin market. (source – CoinGecko) This quiet phase is deceptive. If macro conditions is not worsening, recovery could come sooner than expected. The market will be led by BTC, ETH, XRP, as USD stablecoins being minted as the bullish news continue being in the headlines. DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates 4 hours ago First Digital ID: Is the British Pound Going Digital? Tokenized Sterling Explained By Akiyama Felix British Prime Minister Keir Starmer triggered fury Today as he revealed plans for UK digital ID, but are major banks planning to take the British pound (GBP) digital too? Britain’s biggest banks have launched live tests of “tokenized” sterling, digital versions of bank deposits designed for faster and more controlled payments. (Source – GBP USD, TradingView) Six lenders, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest, Nationwide, and Santander, are taking part in the pilot, which is being coordinated by UK Finance. The project began on September 26 and will run until mid-2026. The tests focus on three use cases: marketplace payments, remortgaging, and digital-asset settlement. According to UK Finance, the goal is to cut fraud, speed up settlement, and give customers more control over how money moves. This marks one of the most significant steps yet in the UK’s push toward programmable money. Instead of creating a new currency, tokenized deposits work as digital representations of money already held at banks. They are expected to play a central role in the country’s broader digital-finance strategy, sitting alongside the Bank of England’s work on digital money and securities. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 Read the original piece here. The post Latest Crypto Market News Today, September 27: BTC, Ethereum, XRP, Solana USD Pairs Stable, What’s Next for Crypto? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

A major Ethereum holder that had been quiet for years suddenly moved roughly 200,000 ETH Friday, worth about $800 million at current prices. Based on reports from on-chain trackers, the investor controls a total of 736,316 ETH spread across eight wallets — holdings that are now valued nearly $3 billion. The activity caught attention because several of those addresses had been inactive for years, making this one of the more notable returns by an early-era holder. Whale Moves Into Staking According to blockchain observers, the transferred coins were not sent to trading venues. Instead, the funds were directed into new addresses tied to staking services, including Ethereum’s Plasma infrastructure, where assets can earn yield while remaining locked. Emmett Gallic, an analyst who flagged the movement, described the action as “bullish.” The choice to stake rather than sell has been noted by market watchers as a possible signal of long-term confidence in Ethereum’s prospects. On-Chain Records Point To Early Holders Reports have disclosed that much of the ETH came from Bitfinex and mining pools active around 2017. Some of the wallets had last moved funds about four years ago; others had been dormant for over eight years. At the time those coins were last active, their combined worth was about $30 million. That figure contrasts sharply with today’s value, which approaches $3 billion, highlighting how much the asset has changed hands in value even for those who stayed put. Price Pressure And ETF Outflows Ethereum’s price was under stress when the whale reappeared. Based on market data, ETH dipped to $3,829 today, a low not seen since August. Reports show institutional vehicles have been selling recently: ETFs recorded roughly $547 million in outflows over four consecutive days earlier this week. On Thursday, all ETFs logged net outflows except BlackRock, which posted neither inflows nor outflows that day. That said, BlackRock had sold close to $27 million worth of ETH the previous day. These moves appear to have helped push the price lower ahead of the whale’s action. Market Reaction And What It May Mean Analysts have pointed out that a large transfer like this would normally stoke fears of a liquidation. In this case, the absence of exchange deposits seemed to calm some traders. Staking shifts coins off liquid markets and can reduce immediate sell pressure. Still, the broader sell-off from ETF products has been sizable and may keep acting as a drag on price until flows stabilize. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Over the last week, Bitcoin (BTC) investors witnessed a heavy market decline as prices crashed by over 5%. This negative performance has moved Bitcoin below $110, 00, pushing the asset near price lows seen in August. As expected, there are also growing implications of this price drop as analysts speculate it could be either another correction or the start of a bearish market. Notably, the X analysis platform, Swissblock, has shared some important market insights that support the steadiness of the present bullish market. Risk Off Signal Indicates No Danger As Bitcoin May Be Ready For Final Round In an X post on September 26, Swissblock provides a vital on-chain analysis that suggests the Bitcoin bullish structure remains intact despite recent market losses. This insight is based on the risk-off signal, which indicates that Bitcoin has yet to enter a high-risk regime —a move that would instantly confirm a change in market trend. As the market remains in a low-risk regime, Swissblock investors expect the bullish structure to start recovering and form a price bottom once market momentum begins to surge again. This recovery likely begins when Bitcoin reaches its immediate support level at $108,000. In this case, Swissblock predicts a new leg higher to be largely driven by institutional demand. While September’s price performance has fared better than expected, ETF inflows reduced in the second half of the month, indicating the need for renewed market institutional interest. The need for heightened institutional demand is further intensified, considering that long-term Bitcoin holders continue to significantly reduce their holdings. Swissblock has described this activity as a “classic late-cycle behavior”, which points to the end of a market cycle. However, the lack of a high-risk signal negates this indicator at the moment and presents the opportunity for institutions to step in to mop up the growing supply. Bitcoin Q4 Pump Loading? In other news, crypto analyst Lark Davis has stated that Bitcoin’s net negative performance in September is a classic market pattern that usually results in a bullish price surge in Q4. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency declined by 8% in September 2023, followed by a 77% price rise in Q4. Likewise, prices dropped by 18% in September 2024, before surging by 101% in the following three months. Over the past eight days, Davis notes that Bitcoin is down by 8% setting up what appears to be a typical “rektember” playbook. Therefore, investors may begin to position themselves for another significant price leap. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $109,401 with a minor 0.11% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 19.16% and valued at $60.52 billion.

After hitting a one-month low, Solana (SOL) has bounced from a critical support zone and is attempting to reclaim a crucial psychological barrier before potentially resuming its bullish rally. However, some analysts suggested that the cryptocurrency could retest new lows if the market volatility persists. Solana Price Retest Major Support On Thursday, Solana lost the $200 level as support after closing the day below this level for the first time in nearly a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading inside the $120-$220 price range since early February, finally breaking out of this range in mid-September. A week ago, the market’s bullish momentum and strong corporate treasury purchases pushed SOL’s price to an eight-month high of $253, leading many investors to anticipate the long-awaited rally to higher levels. However, this week’s pullbacks have sent most cryptocurrencies below crucial levels, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping to $108,000 and $3,800, respectively. Meanwhile, Solana has seen a 20% decline in the weekly timeframe, losing the $200 level. Analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that SOL was “in freefall after that nasty deviation back into the range.” If Solana fails to hold the current $190-$200 range, the analyst considers it would be “very difficult” to find strong support before the demand zone around $150, a level not seen since the start of July. Similarly, market watcher Wise Crypto also noted that Solana could be in a make-or-break retest, as it retests a critical support zone and the overall market still shows some signs of weakness. According to the post, SOL has been trading within an ascending channel since April, bouncing between the upper and lower boundaries throughout this period. If the market’s recent volatility continues, the cryptocurrency could retest the channel’s support zone, around the $177-$188 levels. “If this zone breaks, the next major support is down below $150 — so caution is key,” they added. SOL Bounce Eyes $200 Reclaim Despite the volatility, Wise Crypto also signaled that “Stochastic RSI is signaling oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce could be on the horizon.” As a result, if SOL holds this support area, a move toward the $250 barrier could follow. As Solana approached its major ascending trendline, Crypto Batman noted that SOL has bounced from this level each time it has retested it, suggesting that “In the midst of chaos, you have to look at things from a different perspective.” Notably, SOL bounced from the recent lows on Friday Morning and is currently attempting to break above the $200 psychological barrier. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency must daily close above this key level and continue to hold it over the weekend to transform the pullback into a downside wick deviation in the weekly timeframe. Ted Pillows added that if this level is reclaimed, the $208-$210 area, near the 10-day Moving Average (MA), would be the next target. According to the market watcher, reclaiming and holding above that level would be the first bullish sign, which could potentially push Solana’s price toward $216–$220, near the 30-day MA. As of this writing, SOL trades at $199, a 1.4% increase in the daily timeframe.

A recent report from Bloomberg has unveiled a striking decline in corporate investment in crypto treasuries, highlighting a significant shift in this new trend that has considerably taken the market by storm throughout the year. Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries have plummeted dramatically, from 64,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in July to just 12,600 in August, with September’s figures currently at around 15,500. This drop represents a major 76% decrease from the fervor of early summer. Crypto Treasury Firms Valuation Sinks The broader cryptocurrency market has faced additional challenges, with Bitcoin experiencing nearly a 6% decline over the past week, exacerbated by a broader selloff characterized by sudden liquidations. Shares in some treasuries that previously raised capital through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) deals have seen valuations plummet, with some trading down as much as 97% below their initial issuance prices. One of the reasons behind this shift is regulatory scrutiny, with reports indicating that US authorities are now investigating “unusual trading activity” within digital-asset treasury shares ahead of their acquisitions. Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, alleges that there is limited transparency regarding the crypto acquisition prices of the underlying tokens and the actual share counts, particularly since many PIPE deals include warrants that complicate matters with their volatility and dilution effects. The valuations of some treasury firms, which once enjoyed high market premiums, have drastically declined, with their market value approaching the actual Bitcoin they hold. This shift is measured by the market-cap-to-NAV (net asset value) multiple, which now reflects a concerning trend: the disconnect between stock prices and the value of Bitcoin reserves is closing. Diminished Institutional Support As corporate buyers retreat, Bloomberg asserts that the crypto market is experiencing a “feedback loop” that diminishes institutional support. The report alleges that this absence of a stable capital source undermines demand, leading to a more precarious market environment. The current landscape has given rise to a “two-speed market.” On one hand, derivative markets exhibit significant stress, with demand for longer-dated futures collapsing and $275 million worth of Bitcoin longs liquidated in just 24 hours. Conversely, crypto-related products continue to attract investment, as evidenced by the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), which garnered $2.5 billion in inflows in September, a substantial increase from $707 million the previous month. Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, emphasized that the current weakness in the crypto market is likely a consequence of diminished activity from digital asset treasuries rather than a direct cause of selling pressure. The reduction of these major buyers, he contends, has created a more cautious market environment. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency derivatives market has been hit hard by the latest bearish continuation in Bitcoin and others as mass liquidations have hit exchanges. Crypto Liquidations Have Neared $1 Billion Over The Last 24 Hours According to data from CoinGlass, a massive amount of liquidations have occurred in the cryptocurrency derivatives market during the past day. A “liquidation” occurs when an open contract exceeds a certain loss threshold defined by the exchange and undergoes forceful closure. Due to the volatility that Bitcoin and other assets have experienced over the last 24 hours, a huge amount of contracts have crossed this threshold. Below is a table that breaks down the relevant numbers related to these liquidations. As is visible, cryptocurrency liquidations have totaled at $967 million inside this window, which is a pretty significant amount. Since the price action in the past day has majorly been in the bearish direction, the positions most affected would be the bullish bets. And indeed, as the data shows, $849 million of the liquidations, representing almost 88% of the total, involved long investors. Ethereum has recently been dominating speculative activity in the market, and it seems the asset has topped the charts during this derivatives flush as well, with $309 million in liquidations. Bitcoin has come second with around $246 million. A mass liquidation event like this latest one isn’t a rare occurrence in the cryptocurrency sector, mainly due to two reasons: coins can be volatile on the regular and extreme amounts of leverage can be easily accessible. Such an event, where a cascade of liquidations occurs, is known as a squeeze. As longs were the party most seriously affected in the latest squeeze, the event would be termed as a long squeeze. This is the second long squeeze that the market has suffered this week, with the other one arriving during Bitcoin’s Monday plummet to $112,000. Here is a chart shared by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode that shows how the previous long squeeze compared against this latest one for Bitcoin: According to Glassnode, the two large long squeezes could actually help prevent more such events in the near future. “This flush of leverage reflects a broad deleveraging event, often resetting market positioning and easing the risk of further cascades,” explains the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the liquidations will be enough to bring a calm to the market, or if there is more volatility ahead for Bitcoin and others. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,200, down more than 6% over the last week.

Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle is not nearing a peak but entering a longer, more powerful expansion that can run well into 2026, driven by a global liquidity uptrend tied to government debt dynamics. In a special Sept. 25 “Everything Code” masterclass with Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel, the Real Vision co-founder laid out a tightly interlocked framework connecting demographics, debt, liquidity and the business cycle to asset returns—arguing that crypto and tech remain the only asset classes structurally capable of outpacing what he calls the hidden debasement of fiat. Everything Code: Liquidity Is Crypto’s Master Switch “The biggest macro variable of all time,” Pal said, “is that global governments and central banks are increasing liquidity to manage debt at 8% a year.” He separated that ongoing debasement from measured inflation, warning investors to think in hurdle rates, not headlines: “You’ve got an 11% hurdle rate on any investment that you have. If your investments are not hitting 11% you are getting poorer.” Pal and Bittel’s “Everything Code” starts with trend GDP as the sum of population growth, productivity and debt growth. With working-age populations declining and productivity subdued, public debt has filled the gap—structurally lifting debt-to-GDP and hard-wiring the need for liquidity. “Demographics are destiny,” Pal said, pointing to a falling labor-force participation rate that, in GMI’s work, mirrors the inexorable rise in government debt as a share of GDP. The bridge between the two, they argue, is the liquidity toolkit—balance sheets, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reverse repos and banking-system channels—deployed in cycles to finance interest costs that the economy cannot organically bear. “If trend growth is ~2% and rates are 4%, that gap has to be monetized,” Pal said. “It’s a story as old as the hills.” Bittel then mapped what he called the “dominoes.” GMI’s Financial Conditions Index—an econometric blend of commodities, the dollar and rates—leads total liquidity by roughly three months; total liquidity leads the ISM manufacturing index by about six months; and the ISM, in turn, sets the tone for earnings, cyclicals and crypto beta. “Our job is to live in the future,” Bittel said. “Financial conditions lead the ISM by nine months. Liquidity leads by six. That sequence is what risk markets actually trade.” In that sequence, crypto is not an outlier but a high-beta macro asset. “Bitcoin is the ISM,” Bittel said, noting that the same diffusion-index dynamics that govern small-cap equities, cyclicals, crude and emerging markets also map onto BTC and ETH. As the cycle accelerates from sub-50 ISM toward the high-50s, risk appetite migrates down the curve: first from BTC into ETH, then into large alternative L1s and, only later, into smaller caps—coinciding with falling BTC dominance. Pal cautioned investors who expect “instant altseason” that they are fighting the phasing of the real economy: “It always goes into the next safest asset first… only when the ISM is really pushing higher and dominance is falling hard do you get the rest.” Part of the recent “sideways chop,” they argued, reflected a sharp TGA rebuild—an exogenous liquidity drain that disproportionately impacts the far end of the risk curve. Bittel highlighted that the $500 billion rate of change since mid-July effectively removed fuel that otherwise would have buoyed crypto prices, while stressing that the drain is nearing an inflection. He also flagged DeMark timing signals pointing to a reversal in the TGA’s contribution to net liquidity. “That should now reverse and work lower into year-end, which then will drive our liquidity composites higher,” he said, adding that the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet at all-time highs has partially offset US drags. Against that backdrop, the pair contend that the forthcoming 12 months are critical. “We’ve got $9 trillion of debt to roll over the next 12 months,” Pal said. “This is the 12 months where maximum money printing comes.” Their base case has policy rates moving lower into a still-subdued but improving cycle, with central banks focused on lagging mandates—unemployment and core services inflation—while early-cycle inflation breadth remains contained. Bittel underscored the sequencing inside inflation itself: commodities first, then goods, with shelter disinflation mechanically lagging, giving central banks cover to cut even as growth accelerates. The implication for portfolio construction, Pal argued, is radical. “Diversification is dead. The best thing is hyper-concentration,” he said, framing the choice not as a taste for volatility but as arithmetic survival against debasement. In GMI’s long-horizon tables, most traditional assets underperform the combined debasement-plus-inflation hurdle, while the Nasdaq earns excess returns over liquidity and Bitcoin dwarfs both. “What is the point of owning any other asset?” Pal asked rhetorically. “This is the super-massive black hole of assets, which is why we personally are all-in on crypto… It’s the greatest macro trade of all time.” Bittel overlaid Bitcoin’s log-regression channel—what Pal called the “network adoption rails”—on the ISM to illustrate how time and cycle amplitude interact. Because adoption drifts price targets higher through time, longer cycles mechanically point to higher potential outcomes. He showed illustrative channel levels tied to hypothetical ISM prints to explain the mechanism, from mid-$200Ks if the ISM rises into the low-50s to materially higher if the cycle extends toward the low-60s. The numbers were not presented as forecasts but as a map for how cycle strength translates into range-bound fair value bands. Macro Liquidity Extends The Crypto Bull Run Critically, Pal and Bittel argued the current cycle differs from 2020–2021, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked in March 2021, truncating the run. Today, they say, liquidity is re-accelerating into the debt-refinancing window and the ISM is still below 50 with forward indicators pointing up, setting up a 2017-style Q4 impulse with seasonal tailwinds—and, unlike 2017, a higher probability that strength spills into 2026 because the refinancing cycle itself has lengthened. “It is extremely unlikely that it tops this year,” Pal said. “The ISM just isn’t there, and global liquidity isn’t either.” The framework also locates crypto within a broader secular S-curve. Pal contrasted fiat debasement, which lifts asset prices, with GDP-anchored earnings and wages, which lag—explaining why traditional valuation optics look stretched and why owning long-duration, network-effect assets becomes existential. He placed crypto’s user growth at roughly double the internet’s at a comparable stage and argued that tokens uniquely allow investors to own the infrastructure layer of the next web. On total addressable value, he applied the same log-trend framing to the entire digital asset market, sketching a path from roughly $4 trillion today toward a potential $100 trillion by the early 2030s if the space tracks its “fair value” adoption channel, with Bitcoin ultimately occupying a role analogous to gold inside a much larger digital asset stack. Pal closed with operational advice consistent with a longer, liquidity-driven expansion: maintain exposure to proven, large-cap crypto networks, avoid leverage that forces capitulation during routine 20–30% drawdowns, and match time horizon to the macro clock rather than headlines. “We’re four percent of the way there,” he said. “Your job is to not mess this up.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.67 trillion.

Bitcoin and Gold as stores of value often boil down to a single, critical distinction in the digital era of mobility. This portability transforms BTC from just a digital gold narrative into a living, breathing monetary network that gold can never match. According to mhar_leeck’s perspective on X, the true evolution of BTC lies in its capacity as a platform for innovation, to move, evolve, and even teach. Unlike gold, which stays locked away, this narrative confines the asset to a passive role. The Build on Bitcoin (BOB) layer 2 solution is presented as the crucial technology that enables this shift. Build On Bitcoin Powering The Narrative Furthermore, by creating a new, more expressive layer on top of BTC, BOB turns the theory of a programmable BTC into a practical reality. This combination is often referred to as a hybrid L2, which allows builders to transition from simply reading about decentralized finance (DeFi) to experimenting, testing, and creating in real-time. The unlocking of BTC’s liquidity extends beyond its use in high-throughput applications. It is about unlocking a space for true innovation, where every project sparks, and momentum keeps building. Mhar_leeck noted that the most exciting next chapter for BTC is not about simply holding the asset, but about actively building on it. Crypto Sinan has also stated that he has been in BOB for a while now, and the ride has been nothing short of exciting. The promise of BTC actually working across DeFi with one click highlights the focus on user experience, and no wrapped tokens or shady bridges that introduce new trust assumptions. However, by bridging the liquidity of both BTC security and ETH-grade flexibility, BOB opens the door to a wide range of yield-generating opportunities. As a result of allowing native BTC moves to earn multichain yield without the risks of opaque wrapping solutions, and a growing community that feels like it is building the future in real-time. “If you still think BTC is only a static store of value, maybe BOB is the place where you will finally see the digital gold become productive gold.” Crypto Sinan mentioned. The Biggest Profit-Take In Bitcoin History Bitcoin continues to experience bearish action, impacting investors’ sentiment. Niels, the co-founder of Tedlabsio, has revealed that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are cashing in a historic amount of coins than ever before. In this cycle, BTC Long-Term Holders have realized a record amount of profit, totaling an enormous 3.4 million BTC, larger than the profit realized in any previous bull run. However, in past cycles, sell pressure has barely dented the price structure, which signifies that despite seasoned investors taking record profits, the underlying demand is absorbing it all.