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On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed the five key Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to keep an eye on in the coming week. Bitcoin Is Observing Developments On These Metrics In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has discussed about some Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to watch amid the consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency’s price. The first indicator shared by the analytics firm is the 60-day change in the market cap of USDT, the number one stablecoin. As is visible in the above chart, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has continued to sit at a notable positive level recently, implying the stablecoin has been witnessing growth. Stablecoins are one of the main inlets of capital into the cryptocurrency sector, so growth in them can generally be a positive sign. Currently, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has a value of $10 billion. “This is a clear sign of fresh liquidity entering the market,” notes CryptoQuant. Another stablecoins-related indicator that can be relevant for Bitcoin is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and combined that of all stables. A low value in the indicator can prove to be a bullish sign, as it implies investor purchasing power in the form of stablecoins is high compared to the Bitcoin market cap. From the below chart, it’s apparent that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC SSR stands at a value of 21 right now, which is considered to be inside the “buy” territory. Another bullish sign that’s developing for Bitcoin is in the Accumulator Address Demand, an indicator that measures the demand that’s coming from addresses that have zero history of selling the cryptocurrency. These perennial HODLers now own 298,000 BTC, which is a new record. A metric that’s still inside the bearish zone, however, is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). This metric keeps track of the BTC flows happening between spot and derivatives exchanges. The indicator has been following a downtrend during the past few months, which is considered to be a bear market pattern. “Watch closely: a shift upward often marks the start of bullish momentum,” says the analytics firm. The final metric shared by CryptoQuant is the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs), which measures the average cost basis of the Bitcoin investors who got in during the last 155 days. During BTC’s recent plunge, the STHs briefly dipped into losses, but the asset has since recovered above their Realized Price of $109,775. Bullish trends have historically continued when the coin has traded above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin has climbed back to $114,200 following its recovery surge in the last couple of days.

Traders are lowering their expectations regarding how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months, illustrating how mixed signals from central bank officials are clouding the outlook for monetary policy. In the futures market, the scenario implying just one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the so-called neutral rate — the optimal rate at which policy neither stimulates nor restrains growth — is now expected to be only partially realized. This stands in sharp contrast with last week, when bets on a 50-basis-point cut by year-end were in demand. A wider range of views on monetary policy expressed by Fed officials in recent days contributed to this shift: traders rushed to hedge both the risk of the central bank delivering significant rate cuts and the risk of it acting less aggressively. For example, newly appointed member Steven Miran stated that policy remains too restrictive and advocated for a 125-basis-point rate cut across the two remaining FOMC meetings in 2025, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the Fed must stay vigilant over inflation risks. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week indicated that the outlook for the labor market and inflation is subject to risks and gave no hints as to whether he would support a rate cut at the next Fed meeting in October. Recall that during its September meeting, the FOMC cut the federal funds rate for the first time this year, to 4–4.25%. Currently, interest-rate swaps are pricing the neutral rate at about 2.95% and a total of roughly 40 basis points in rate cuts across the two remaining scheduled meetings this year. News of the U.S. government shutdown could significantly affect the Fed's future outlook and its plans for further rate cuts. Without new data, which will not be published during the shutdown, it is unlikely that the Committee will proceed with a cut at the October meeting. However, there is always a chance that Republicans and Democrats will reach an agreement on spending, allowing the government to reopen and the release of fresh statistics that influence central bank decisions to resume. As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1770 level. Only this will allow for a test of 1.1795. From there, the pair may climb to 1.1820, though doing so without support from large players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1845 high. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying activity only around 1.1730. If no major buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a renewal of the 1.1710 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1680. As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3490. Only then will they be able to aim for 1.3530, above which it will be rather difficult to break. The furthest target is the 1.3565 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3440. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3400 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3365. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key takeaways The US government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, heightens political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.Past shutdowns show the US dollar tends to weaken during and after such impasses, with the 2018 episode triggering a 2% decline.Rising unemployment and Trump’s threat of mass layoffs increase bets for Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025.The Eurozone/US policy rate spread is steepening, reinforcing upside momentum in EUR/USD. The US government has officially entered a shutdown in nearly seven years today, 1 October 2025, after Senate Republican and Democratic leaders remained locked in a stalemate over health care subsidies and engaged in brinkmanship maneuvers to frame the 2026 midterm elections. The previous shutdown occurred in late December 2018 during President Trump’s first term, which lasted for 34 days, the longest US government shutdown in history since 1976. Based on the data compiled by Bloomberg for the last three shutdowns, in 2013, early 2018, and late 2018, the US dollar drifted lower (Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index) both during the impasse and in the aftermath of the shutdowns. The late 2018 episode produced the most pronounced bout of US dollar weakness; the greenback shed around -2% during the shutdown period of 34 days. Right now, let's examine one key macro factor that is likely to support the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the EUR/USD in light of the latest US government shutdown. Risk of a spike in the US employment rate leads to a more dovish Fed Fig. 1: The Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread with EUR/USD as of 30 Sep 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) To heighten brinkmanship ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections, President Trump suggested his administration could leverage the shutdown to pursue mass layoffs of government employees, going beyond the temporary furloughs already affecting an estimated 750,000 personnel. The current unemployment rate in the US has increased to 4.3% in August 2025 from 4.2% in July, its highest level since October 2021. Hence, the unemployment rate could spike higher if the shutdown lasts for more than a week, with the mass layoffs proposed by Trump. The Fed funds futures market has started to price in a bleak US labour market condition that triggers an increase in bets for two more Fed rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings before 2025 ends Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) cut to reduce the Fed funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% on the 29 October FOMC meeting have increased to 95% from 90% a day ago. Also, the odds have risen to a 75% chance of another 25 bps rate cut in the 12 December 2025 FOMC meeting to bring the Fed funds rate lower to 3.50%-3.75% from around 58% chance recorded previously ex-post 17 September 2025 FOMC meeting. All in all, the increase in Fed rate cut bets has led to the Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread to inch higher to -1.84% in November 2025 from -1.93% in October 2025 and rose steadily in the next few months to be at -1.55% by March 2026. Also, the curve spread has shifted upwards from three months ago (see Fig. 1). The steepening of the Eurozone/US implied policy interest rate curve spread is likely to assert upside pressure in the EUR/USD. Let’s now examine the latest technical factors on the EUR/USD to determine the next potential short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and its key levels to watch. Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 1 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: EUR/USD medium-term & major trends as of 1 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1680 for the EUR/USD. A clearance above 1.1760 increases the odds of a new minor bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 1.1820, 1.1860, and 1.1910 in the first step (see Fig. 2). Key elements The EUR/USD exited from the minor descending channel resistance on Monday, 29 September 2025, and traded back above its 50-day moving average. These observations suggest that the minor corrective decline sequence from its 17 September 2025 ex-post FOMC high to 25 September 2025 low of 1.1645 is likely to have ended (see Fig. 2).The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the EUR/USD has managed to hover above a horizontal support at the 46 level, which suggests a potential build-up of short-term bullish momentum (see Fig. 2).The yield spread between the 2-year German Bund and the US Treasury note has just staged a bullish breakout on Tuesday, 29 September 2025, at the time of writing. It narrowed to -1.57% as of Wednesday, 1 October 2025, at the time of writing, from -1.7% printed on 25 September 2025 (see Fig. 2).This development indicates a relative decline in the yield attractiveness of the 2-year US Treasury versus its German counterpart, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar against the euro (see Fig. 2).The EUR/USD has continued to oscillate above a medium-term ascending trendline in place since the 3 February 2025 low, coupled with a recent bullish momentum reading seen in its daily RSI momentum indicator. These observations support the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the EUR/USD (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 1.1680 short-term key support invalidates the bullish scenario on the EUR/USD to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1630/1.1615 and 1.1570 (the medium-term pivotal support). 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Yesterday, the U.S. Congress missed the midnight deadline for funding submissions, which led to the first government shutdown in nearly seven years — and the third under President Donald Trump. The White House Office of Management and Budget ordered agencies to implement their contingency plans for a funding lapse, which will halt government operations except for essential duties, disrupt the work of hundreds of thousands of Americans, and shut down many federal services. Both parties have reached a deadlock over healthcare subsidies. Experts note that the shutdown and its economic consequences could drag on. If it lasts for three weeks, the unemployment rate could rise to 4.6–4.7% from 4.3% in August, as furloughed workers are counted as temporarily unemployed. Against this backdrop, Trump announced that his administration would use the shutdown to conduct mass layoffs of federal employees, going beyond the temporary furlough that has already affected an estimated 750,000 government workers. This move could worsen the economic fallout of the shutdown. Experts and labor unions warn that such a step would not only deepen the shutdown's economic impact but also inflict long-term damage on the public sector. Mass layoffs would result in the loss of qualified personnel and disorganization within key agencies. Many government employees, fearing job loss, would be forced to seek other opportunities, leading to a brain drain and reduced efficiency in public administration. Moreover, layoffs could negatively affect the morale of remaining staff, creating an atmosphere of instability and uncertainty. This may cause a decline in productivity and a deterioration in the quality of public services. The economic consequences of such a decision could be quite severe. In addition to reduced consumer spending by dismissed employees, there would be difficulties in implementing infrastructure projects and other government programs. Businesses dependent on government contracts could also suffer, leading to further slowing of economic growth. Ultimately, the decision to conduct mass layoffs of federal employees is a risky move that could have serious negative consequences for both the economy and public administration. Historically, the economic consequences of government shutdowns have been largely, though not fully, offset. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the U.S. economy failed to recover 3 billion dollars of the 11 billion dollars lost in output during the partial government shutdown of 2018–2019, which lasted five weeks and became the longest in U.S. history. During yesterday's meeting, Democrats and Republicans showed no signs of resolving the deadlock over whether to include changes in healthcare and other political measures. Democrats demanded the adoption of a temporary spending bill. Republicans, who need at least eight Democratic votes to pass a funding bill, said they would extend the Senate's work with a one-day break for Yom Kippur and keep holding votes on the Republican proposal until Democrats relent. So far, the currency market has reacted fairly calmly to the start of the shutdown. As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to work on taking the 1.1770 level. Only then will they be able to aim for a test of 1.1795. From there, it may be possible to climb to 1.1820, but doing so without the support of large players will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the 1.1845 high. In case the instrument declines, I expect significant buying activity only around 1.1730. If no major buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a renewal of the 1.1710 low or to open long positions from 1.1680. As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3490. Only then will they be able to target 1.3530, above which it will be quite difficult to break. The furthest target is the 1.3565 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3440. If they succeed, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3400 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3365. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.3441 (yesterday's daily candle close) may possibly continue moving upward with the target at 1.3482 – the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward with the target at 1.3417 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.3441 (yesterday's daily candle close) may possibly continue moving upward with the target at 1.3501 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward with the target at 1.3417 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward with the target at 1.1710 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1794 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward with the target at 1.1710 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Tether, the issuer behind the leading stablecoin, USDT, has made headlines by acquiring $1 billion worth of Bitcoin—approximately 8,800 BTC—during the third quarter of this year. While many investors have reacted positively to this significant investment, caution has emerged from industry experts like Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk, who warns that this move may contribute to what he believes could be the “largest bubble in history.” Bitcoin’s True Value Could Be Below $1,000 In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King raised serious concerns about the Bitcoin market, claiming that 80-90% of the total buy volume is artificially inflated. He argues that Tether essentially creates money “out of thin air,” injecting it into Bitcoin and thereby exacerbating the speculative environment. Despite the growing trend of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional accumulation of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve, the cryptocurrency’s real value might be “far below $1,000.” This narrative has been ongoing for years, provoking varied responses within the community. One investor countered King’s assertion by asking why major institutional players, including sovereign ETFs and Fortune 500 companies, continue to invest in Bitcoin if such a large portion of the trading volume is deemed fake. His argument suggests that either these institutions are misinformed or that the real bubble lies within traditional fiat currencies rather than cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. King refuted this notion, alleging that the idea of significant institutional investment in Bitcoin is largely “a myth.” He contended that most inflows into ETFs are driven by retail investors, not large institutions. Skepticism Vs. Optimism Further amplifying his skepticism, King criticized Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest publicly traded company holding over 600,000 BTC, describing it as a “leveraged Bitcoin casino.” He alleged that the company’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, has a history of inflating numbers during the dot-com bubble, suggesting that the current situation is a repetition of “past mistakes.” In contrast, other experts like Quinten Francois view Tether’s recent Bitcoin purchase through a more optimistic lens. Francois highlights the US government’s push for stablecoin adoption via the GENIUS Act, which mandates that stablecoin issuers be licensed, transparent, and fully backed by US Treasuries. He argues that this regulatory framework could channel trillions in offshore Eurodollars into US bonds through stablecoins, effectively continuing quantitative easing but through these private entities rather than the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, BTC is trading within the lower channel of its consolidation range at $113,200, with no clear indication of where prices will move next. According to CoinGecko data, the leading cryptocurrency is currently 8% below its all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

October opened with tension in both politics and crypto. The U.S. federal government officially shut down for the first time in six years after Congress failed to agree on a budget deal. The deadlock has rattled global markets, and digital assets are no exception. Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $114,521.87 0.76% Bitcoin BTC Price $114,521.87 0.76% /24h Volume in 24h $50.05B Price 7d The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, October 1: Bitcoin Holds $114K as Shutdown Fuels Volatility, Traders Hunt Best Meme Coins to Buy appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

No matter how challenging the current U.S. government shutdown may seem, these disruptions are temporary. This fact, combined with positive news from pharmaceutical companies, has pushed the S&P 500 back toward record highs. Donald Trump announced that Pfizer will introduce new medications in the U.S. at reduced prices. As long as the company invests in the American economy, it will be exempt from tariffs. The White House is also working with other industry representatives to reach similar agreements. U.S. Stock Index Performance The market hears what it wants to hear. That's why stock indices have continued their rally despite the government shutdown and declining consumer confidence. Previous shutdowns have come at a high cost to the U.S. economy. In Q1 of 2019, GDP contracted by 0.4%, and in 2013, by 0.6 percentage points. Layoffs totaled 340,000 and 800,000, respectively. The current scenario is more reminiscent of the shutdown 12 years ago, which involved a complete halt in executive branch operations. In 2018, however, some programs continued to receive funding. The market's reaction has been mixed. One week before a shutdown, the S&P 500 declined 8 times, with an average drop of 0.1%. After the shutdown ended, the index rose in 11 cases, with an average increase of 0.6%. In four of the last five instances since 1995, government shutdowns actually triggered stock market rallies. S&P 500's Reaction to Shutdowns Generally, the longer the executive branch remains inactive, the more damage it does to businesses and the economy. It's essential to distinguish between partial and full shutdowns. The 2025 shutdown is a full governmental stop. Moreover, there is still no visible breakthrough in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. Bloomberg Economics forecasts a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.7%. It's not surprising that some bold investors are now discussing a potential pullback in the S&P 500. According to Piper Sandler, a reality check after five straight quarters of growth could push the index down 3–4% and lead to consolidation in the 6400–6700 range. Only after that might the upward move resume. Sanctuary Wealth expects a correction between 5% and 10% if rising inflation in the U.S. leads to a spike in Treasury yields. These forecasts sound like a lone voice in the wilderness, especially as the S&P 500 retests historic highs. Investors are alert, waiting for the right moment to "buy the dip" and enter into long positions at better prices. Still, a little "ballast drop" wouldn't hurt the index's broader trajectory. On the daily chart, the S&P 500 quotes have returned to a cluster of pivot levels around 6690–6700. A breakout above this area would signal a resumption of the bullish trend and create an opportunity to add to long positions initiated at 6570 and 6610. On the other hand, a failed breakout would increase the risk of consolidation, prompting many to take profits and potentially reverse positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin rebounded yesterday but failed to break above the $115,000 mark, which raises questions about its short-term bullish outlook. Ethereum, meanwhile, remained relatively flat, continuing to trade around the same levels as the previous day. A particularly interesting interview with Pavel Durov surfaced yesterday, in which he revealed that he lives off early investments in BTC. Durov shared that he had purchased several thousand BTC at around $700. "In reality, my cryptocurrency investments, primarily in Bitcoin, support my lifestyle. Many believe that my affinity for luxury homes and private jets is funded by Telegram. However, as I've said before, Telegram is a non-profit project for me. Bitcoin is what has allowed me to maintain financial independence," Durov said. This story is more than just a curious detail about a famous entrepreneur — it's a powerful example of cryptocurrency's potential as a tool for financial freedom. Durov's foresight to invest in Bitcoin early on enabled him to turn modest initial capital into a foundation that now supports not only his personal needs but also his ability to run a passion project like Telegram without profitability pressures. His words come across not only as a personal confession but also as a manifesto of sorts for innovation and vision in the world of finance, showing how embracing new technologies and believing in their potential can lead to remarkable outcomes. According to Durov, BTC will hit $1 million in the near future. As for the intraday crypto trading strategy, I will continue to focus on buying dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting the mid-term bullish trend to continue. Below are the conditions for short-term trading. BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches $114,800 with a target of $115,700. I plan to exit long trades around $115,700 and sell on a bounce. Before entering a breakout buy, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario #2: Buy from the lower boundary around $113,900 in the absence of a strong market reaction to a downside breakout, targeting $114,800 and $115,700.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches $113,900 with a target of $112,600. Near $112,600, I plan to exit short trades and buy on a bounce. Before entering a breakout sell, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.Scenario #2: Consider selling from the upper boundary at $114,800 if the market fails to sustain a breakout, targeting a move back to $113,900 and $112,600. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the $4,157 entry point with a target of $4,208. I'll exit long positions at $4208 and sell on a bounce. Before entering a breakout buy, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario #2: Buy ETH from the lower boundary at $4117 if the market shows no reaction to a downside breakout, aiming for rebounds to $4257 and $4208.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today at $4117, targeting $4077. At $4077, I will exit shorts and consider buying on the bounce. Before breakout selling, the 50-day moving average should be above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator should be in negative territory.Scenario #2: Consider selling from the upper boundary at $4157 if the market fails to confirm a true breakout, aiming for $4117 and $4077.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As the market stabilizes from last week’s correction, BNB is attempting to hold a crucial area that could set the stage for a rally, leading some analysts to suggest that the next leg up could be around the corner. Kazakhstan Adoption Pushes BNB To $1,000 Nearly two weeks after breaking above the $1,000 milestone for the first time, BNB is attempting to hold this key area as support following the recent market pullback. The cryptocurrency has recorded a massive multi-month rally this quarter, surging 54% since the July opening. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has climbed 16% from the start-of-September lows, turning the crucial $800-$900 zone into support before surging toward its latest all-time high (ATH) of $1,083 nine days ago. Nonetheless, the altcoin’s massive run was halted during the end-of-month pullback, which saw most cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), hit multi-week lows. BNB dropped over 10% from last week’s high, losing the critical $1,000 breakout level on Friday. During the pullback, the altcoin retested the $930 level as support, bouncing off this level over the weekend and reclaiming the crucial barrier yesterday morning. The recent price surge was driven by Kazakhstan’s announcement of its investment in the altcoin. On Monday, Kazakhstan announced the launch of its first crypto reserve, the Alem Crypto Fund, aimed at long-term investment in digital assets. According to the statement, Binance Kazakhstan is the strategic partner of the fund, which was established by the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan. As part of the partnership, Alem Crypto Fund made BNB its first investment. Nurkhat Kushimov, General Manager of Binance Kazakhstan, stated that “The fund’s choice of BNB as its first digital asset highlights the trust in the Binance ecosystem and marks a new chapter for institutional recognition of cryptocurrencies in Kazakhstan.” Price Discovery Continuation In Q4? It’s worth noting that the BNB Chain ecosystem also saw a strong performance, with multiple projects built on the network leading in terms of profitability. As reported by NewsBTC, BNB Chain projects led Binance Wallet’s top ten Initial DEX Offerings (IDOs) list with up to 2,000x historical returns, while BSC projects led the top five Alpha trading volume rankings. Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades suggested that neither BNB nor BSC-related tokens’ rally is over yet, as the “market is eager for a narrative or chain to gamble on.” Analyst Ali Martinez affirmed that the token “still has many legs up,” suggesting that successfully holding this level could target new highs. The analyst previously stated that BNB’s price targets the $1,200-$1,300 area as part of its bullish breakout from its macro range. Turning the current area into support in the higher timeframes could set the stage for a price discovery continuation with a 20%-30% run in the coming months. On the contrary, a rejection from this level could see the price retest the $900-$930 area again. Similarly, Altcoin Sherpa asserted that the cryptocurrency “has been the strongest major to recover so far from the dump,” adding that another rally later in the year is possible. As of this writing, BNB is trading at $1,002, a 1.3% decline in the daily timeframe.

[Silver] – [Wednesday, October 01, 2025] With the EMA position still in a Golden Cross and the RSI in the Neutral to Bullish zone, then Silver has the potential to appreciate today toward its nearest resistance levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 47.840 2. Resistance. 1 : 47.225 3. Pivot : 46.500 4. Support. 1 : 45.855 5. Support. 2 : 45.160 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the XAG/USD price breaks and closes above 47.225, there is potential to test the 47.840 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 47.840 is successfully breached and closed above, Silver has the potential to move up to the 48.565 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Silver declines and breaks and closes below 45.160. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 46.644 EMA(200): 45.848 RSI(14) : 61.18 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 19:15 WIB US - Final Manufacturing PMI - 20:45 WIB US - ISM Manufacturing PMI - 21:00 WIB US - ISM Manufacturing Prices - 21:00 WIB US - Construction Spending m/m - 21:00 WIB US - Wards Total Vehicle Sales - All Day US - Crude Oil Inventories - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 01, 2025] With the RSI Position in the Neutral-Bearish level, then there is potential for XPD/USD to decline today toward its nearest support levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1339.48 2. Resistance. 1 : 1306.17 3. Pivot : 1267.27 4. Support. 1 : 1233.96 5. Support. 2 : 1195.06 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1267.27, Palladium is likely to go down to 1233.96. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1233.96 is breached and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening down to 1195.06. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is limited if XPD/USD suddenly strengthens up to the level of 1339.48. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 1269.17 EMA(200): 1261.09 RSI(14) : 47.44 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, the United States will release the following economic data: US - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 19:15 WIB US - Final Manufacturing PMI - 20:45 WIB US - ISM Manufacturing PMI - 21:00 WIB US - ISM Manufacturing Prices - 21:00 WIB US - Construction Spending m/m - 21:00 WIB US - Wards Total Vehicle Sales - All Day US - Crude Oil Inventories - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar in line with the prevailing trend. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 pips. During the Asian session today, the Japanese yen showed strength. The dollar came under pressure due to the U.S. government shutdown, triggered by a failure to reach a consensus on funding for the upcoming fiscal period. This, combined with deteriorating global market sentiment, led to a flight from risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets — most notably the yen. The shutdown has brought confusion and uncertainty to the financial markets, raising concerns about the U.S. economy's growth prospects. Investors fear that a prolonged government closure could slow economic activity and potentially lead to further economic challenges. In such a scenario, the yen — viewed as the currency of a stable and reliable nation — becomes an appealing alternative for capital preservation. Japanese Manufacturing PMI data did not strongly support the yen, although a positive revision to the index was interpreted as a constructive sign. However, markets seem to have already priced in expectations of improved Japanese economic performance. For the yen to strengthen further, more significant catalysts will be needed. Investors remain focused on developments in the U.S. and any potential signals from the Bank of Japan regarding a possible rate hike before the end of the year. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 147.67 (green line on the chart) with an upside target of 148.15 (thicker green line). Around 148.15, I plan to exit my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying the pair is best done on corrections and deep dips in the USD/JPY exchange rate. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from that level. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the case of two consecutive tests of the 147.23 level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would suggest limited downside potential and a likely reversal back up. Expected targets are the opposing levels at 147.67 and 148.15. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below the 147.23 level (red line on the chart), which could result in a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 146.66, where I plan to exit short positions and switch to long trades for a potential bounce of 20–25 pips. Selling is more effective from higher levels. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below zero and is just beginning its downward move. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pair today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.67 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upside and could trigger a reversal to lower levels. In this case, a drop toward the opposite levels at 147.23 and 146.66 may follow. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3445 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line — a confirmation of a valid entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in a 20-pip gain. Today, the British pound continued to rise during the Asian session, benefiting from additional pressure on the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing government shutdown. This shutdown, caused by a lack of consensus on government spending for the upcoming fiscal year, has triggered a wave of concern among investors, prompting them to shift away from dollar-denominated assets in search of safer havens. The pound took advantage of the situation and strengthened as the dollar weakened. Focus now shifts to the release of the UK Manufacturing PMI, an indicator closely monitored by analysts and economists. Given the recent mixed performance of the manufacturing sector, today's report is significant for assessing future momentum. Strong PMI readings would help support the pound and signal economic resilience, while weaker data could amplify concerns about a looming recession. Additionally, today's release of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes will provide investors with comprehensive insights into the rationale behind recent policy decisions. Special attention will be paid to remarks on inflation, growth outlook, and risks to financial stability. Rounding out the morning agenda is a speech by Catherine L. Mann, a member of the BoE's MPC. Her comments could provide valuable insight into the BoE's stance on monetary policy going forward. Traders will be analyzing her words closely for clues on when the central bank might pause rate hikes or even consider cutting rates. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at around 1.3472 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3514 (represented by the thicker green line). Near the 1.3514 level, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a pullback of about 30–35 pips. Pound strength is likely to continue following strong data. Important! Before entering a buy trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3439 level twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would signal limited downside potential and likely trigger a bullish reversal. A rebound from here could lead the pair to 1.3472 and 1.3514.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3439 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a swift downward move. The key target for sellers will be 1.3396, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buys for a potential 20–25 pip rebound from that level. Sellers may seize control at any time. Important! Before entering a short position, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3472 twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would signal capped upside potential and set up a possible reversal to the downside. In this case, a slide toward 1.3439 and 1.3396 may follow. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1730 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I chose not to sell the euro. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD entering the oversold zone, which triggered the realization of Scenario #2 (Buy) and resulted in a 25-pip upward move. Yesterday's unexpected drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September, as reported by The Conference Board, led to a notable decline in the dollar and a corresponding move higher in the euro. The reported value of 94.2 points came in well below economists' expectations, which had called for a more optimistic reading. This sudden deterioration in sentiment raised concerns about the future of the U.S. economy and was reflected broadly in the weakening dollar. The drop in consumer confidence can be attributed to a combination of factors, including elevated inflation, high interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical instability. These pressures are weighing on consumer sentiment and their willingness to spend—factors which could slow economic growth in the periods ahead. Today brings a wave of macroeconomic data that may have a tangible impact on financial markets. Key releases include the euro area's Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Disappointing outcomes from these releases could amplify existing concerns about the eurozone's economic outlook. Additionally, markets will pay close attention to a speech from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. His remarks on the current economic landscape, inflation expectations, and the ECB's monetary policy plans may influence the euro's trajectory and overall investor sentiment. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.1770 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), with the upside target at 1.1810. At 1.1810, I plan to exit long trades and initiate sell positions in the opposite direction, counting on a 30–35 pip retracement. A bullish euro outlook is valid only if ECB officials take a firm, hawkish stance. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and is just beginning to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1745 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and could trigger a market reversal to the upside. In this scenario, I expect the pair to rise toward 1.1770 and 1.1810. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after a return to the 1.1745 level (red line on the chart). The downside target in this case is 1.1705, where I would exit short trades and consider switching to long setups in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Selling may become relevant again if today's data from the eurozone disappoints. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it. Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if the price tests the 1.1770 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the upside potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. In that case, I expect the pair to fall toward 1.1745 and then down to 1.1705. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar continues to face challenges, but weak economic data from the eurozone and the United Kingdom are also limiting the upward potential of risk assets. Yesterday, a sharp drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September led to dollar weakness and supported the euro. The index came in significantly below analyst expectations, which were more optimistic. This unexpected decline raised fresh concerns about the economic outlook for the United States and, as a result, put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The euro, in contrast, showed resilience and strengthened against the greenback. Today is expected to be a busy day with numerous macroeconomic events that could significantly impact financial markets. At center stage will be the release of eurozone manufacturing PMI data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and core inflation. Weak readings on any of these indicators could heighten concerns about the current state and prospects of the eurozone economy. In particular, investors will not only consider the overall level of inflation but also the core component, which excludes volatile elements such as energy and food prices. A decline in core prices could help the European Central Bank finalize its interest rate decision for the remainder of the year. Another key event will be the speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. His comments on the current economic situation, inflation outlook, and future monetary policy of the ECB could significantly influence the euro's exchange rate and market sentiment. As for the British pound, focus will be on the release of the UK manufacturing PMI. Economists are closely watching this leading indicator of economic performance. In recent months, the manufacturing sector has shown mixed results, and today's release may provide further clarity on its outlook. A strong report would support GBP and indicate economic resilience, while weak data may deepen recession fears. If the data meet economists' expectations, a Mean Reversion strategy is more appropriate. However, if the data deviates significantly from forecasts, it may be better to use a Momentum (breakout) strategy. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuy on breakout above 1.1770, targeting 1.1800 and 1.1820Sell on breakout below 1.1740, targeting 1.1711 and 1.1680GBP/USDBuy on breakout above 1.3475, targeting 1.3495 and 1.3532Sell on breakout below 1.3445, targeting 1.3405 and 1.3370USD/JPYBuy on breakout above 147.60, targeting 148.00 and 148.30Sell on breakout below 147.35, targeting 147.00 and 146.70Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDSell after a failed breakout above 1.1774, looking for a return below that levelBuy after a failed breakout below 1.1737, on a return back above that level GBP/USDSell after a failed breakout above 1.3476, on a return below that levelBuy after a failed breakout below 1.3435, on a return back above that level AUD/USDSell after a failed breakout above 0.6628, on a return below that levelBuy after a failed breakout below 0.6583, on a return back above that level USD/CADSell after a failed breakout above 1.3939, on a return below that levelBuy after a failed breakout below 1.3904, on a return back above that levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a phase of consolidation, hovering just above $113,000, leaving investors uncertain about the BTC’s next move. This uncertainty has led one analyst, known for accurately predicting BTC’s trajectory during this cycle, to suggest that a new bear market may be closer than many investors anticipate. Bear Market Warning In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analyst, who goes by the name Doctor Profit, expressed ongoing confidence in his bearish outlook. Since adopting a negative stance in August, he has maintained that Bitcoin is likely to reach the $90,000 to $94,000 range. While he initially expected this target to be hit this month, he noted that the price has spent an average of 77% of the time below his short position entry point of $115,500. This has reinforced his belief in the validity of his analysis. Doctor Profit emphasized that the critical test for BTC involves the $90,000 to $94,000 range. He predicts that not only will this level be tested, but there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin could break below it, effectively signaling the end of the current bull market. While the probability of a bear market is alarmingly high, Doctor Profit insists that confirmation hinges on how Bitcoin reacts within this key price band. He clarified that reaching this target does not need to happen immediately, nor does a temporary bounce back to $116,000 or $117,000 invalidate his bearish thesis. The analyst views any upward price movements, such as the mid-September surge to $117,800, as mere opportunities to enter short positions at more favorable levels, instead of being signals of a new bullish catalyst. 4 Key Indicators For The Bitcoin Price Analytics platform CryptoQuant has identified four critical indicators to watch based on on-chain data. Notably, Tether’s USDT market cap has seen a substantial increase of $10 billion over the past 60 days, signaling fresh liquidity entering the market, which is typically a positive sign during bullish phases. Moreover, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI currently sits at 21, which indicates a “buy” signal. This metric assesses the buying power of stablecoins in relation to Bitcoin’s market cap. Additionally, the number of accumulator addresses, which are wallets that have made multiple purchases of the leading cryptocurrency without selling, has reached an all-time high of 298,000 BTC. Conversely, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which tracks Bitcoin flows between spot and derivatives exchanges, is currently trending downward—an indicator commonly associated with bearish market conditions. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday. The most important among them are the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and euro area inflation. It's worth noting that although inflation no longer has a major direct impact on ECB monetary policy decisions, a high reading could significantly reduce the likelihood of further rate cuts — and perhaps even increase the chance of future rate hikes. Therefore, high inflation in the eurozone is considered a positive factor for the euro. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical standalone indicator. Also scheduled for release in the U.S. is the ADP employment report. However, traders tend to place greater importance on the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Fundamental Events Analysis: A few fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday — mostly speeches by ECB officials. However, it's worth noting that ECB and Fed representatives gave several interviews on Monday and Tuesday, which had virtually no impact on the movement of major currency pairs. As such, today's speeches are also unlikely to trigger meaningful moves in the euro. The market is in a state of waiting — waiting for developments in the government shutdown and for the release of U.S. labor and unemployment data. General Conclusions:On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD) may move in either direction, as significant macroeconomic data is scheduled for release. GBP/USD has completed its downward trend, and with high probability, the euro has also concluded its bearish phase (though it has not yet broken through its trendline). For the euro, the pivotal area is 1.1745–1.1754, from which price has bounced four times already. For the pound, important areas for trade entries are 1.3413–1.3421 and 1.3466–1.3475. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15-20 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience over the last weekend as it defended the crucial $108,000 support level amid heightened whale selling on leading crypto exchanges around the world, including Binance. Bitcoin Survives September Whale Selling Pressure According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, September was marked by clear fluctuations between Bitcoin’s attempts to rally and exposure to selling pressure by whales and long-term holders. Binance trading volume data confirms this. Arab Chain highlighted Binance’s Exchange Inflow Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which showed significant volatility throughout September. The indicator recorded multiple peaks at various points during the month, especially during mid-September. For the uninitiated, the Exchange CDD indicator tracks the movement of older, long-held Bitcoin when it flows into exchanges, weighting transactions by the age of the coins being spent. Spikes in this indicator signal that long-term holders or whales are moving coins with the intent to sell, which can create selling pressure. It is worth noting that despite the high peaks hit in September, the Exchange CDD indicator did not reach the extreme levels that it did in the previous months. However, the repeated spikes seen in September indicate inflows from older wallets into Binance. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the multiple spikes in the Exchange CDD indicator reflect a state of caution among long-term investors. Some of these investors tried to test the market by moving their BTC to the exchange, without turning it into a mass sell-off event. Another point worth emphasizing is that the Exchange CDD spikes often coincided with price pullbacks in BTC, reinforcing the hypothesis that these flows likely represent short-term selling pressure. The analyst added: However, these pressures did not lead to a breakdown of key support levels around $108K, indicating the presence of corresponding buying liquidity that absorbed these moves. In conclusion, although some long-term investors showed willingness to take some profits, the absence of large waves of sell-offs shows that they have not fully lost confidence in the market yet. Similarly, Bitcoin’s price remaining above $108,000 despite repeated selling pressure shows that the market still possesses the capacity to absorb BTC inflows, confirming the robust underlying demand for the top digital asset. What Does October Hold For BTC? In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst crypto sunmoon remarked that past data suggests that a surge in taker buy orders has often preceded major Bitcoin bull runs. However, currently, there are no signs of any increase in taker buy orders. The analyst added that even if BTC witnesses some price increase, it is unlikely to record the same magnitude of gains as before. That said, improving Bitcoin network fundamentals offers some hope to the bulls. For instance, Bitcoin network transactions are once again approaching the important 600,000 transactions threshold, which could spark bullish momentum for the digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,200, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair was practically motionless. Although the downtrend on the hourly time frame can be considered complete, as the trendline has been broken, traders are hesitant to open new positions. This market standstill is easily explained by caution ahead of major U.S. labor market and unemployment reports scheduled for release on Friday. However, these key reports might not even be published due to the government shutdown, which begins today. To recap, a shutdown is a temporary suspension of government operations and funding due to the absence of an approved budget for the next fiscal year. Until Republicans and Democrats reach an agreement on spending structures, federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will remain out of service. As a result, Friday's reports may not be published, further increasing uncertainty within the U.S. economy. We continue to believe there are significantly more reasons for the dollar to fall than for the pound or euro. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute chart, three excellent trading signals were formed on Tuesday. During the night session, the price bounced from the 1.3413–1.3421 zone and repeated this move at the start of the U.S. session. The nearest target — the resistance area between 1.3466 and 1.3475 — was reached and worked out, creating another opportunity for new traders to open a short position as the price rebounded again. How to Trade on Wednesday:In the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has completed the formation of a downtrend. As mentioned earlier, there are no valid reasons to expect long-term U.S. dollar strength, so we forecast a medium-term movement to the upside. Although recent developments in the UK and U.S. have temporarily favored the dollar, the broader fundamental backdrop remains against it. The confirmed end of the downtrend supports this outlook. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may continue its upward movement, as the downward phase appears to have come to an end. A bounce from the 1.3413–1.3421 zone would offer new long opportunities with a target at 1.3466–1.3475 and possibly higher. A confirmed break below 1.3413–1.3421 would make short positions relevant, with a target at 1.3329–1.3331. For intraday trading on the 5M chart, consider the following key levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466, 1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. No important events are scheduled for release from the UK on Wednesday. However, the U.S. will publish the ADP Private Employment Report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Among these, the ISM index is considered more impactful and may cause stronger market reactions. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 20 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, though the pace throughout the day remained very slow, despite a relatively large number of macroeconomic reports. In Germany alone, reports on retail sales, unemployment, jobless claims, and inflation were released. The data was mixed, but we believe that the inflation figure is currently the most important. In Germany, inflation rose more than forecast, giving grounds to expect a rise in eurozone-wide inflation. Higher inflation across the eurozone makes any new ECB rate cut nearly impossible and even opens up the possibility of future rate hikes. Naturally, this is good news for the euro. As for the dollar, it remains in a gloomy state. Today marks the start of the U.S. government shutdown, which is unlikely to be viewed favorably by any market participant. Several important U.S. economic reports are scheduled for the remainder of this week, each of which may present risks for the dollar. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, three sell signals were formed on Tuesday, but as mentioned, volatility was extremely weak. Therefore, regardless of signal quality, it was nearly impossible to expect any meaningful profits. That said, losses were also unlikely, as the price failed to sustain levels above the 1.1745–1.1754 range. How to Trade on Wednesday:On the hourly time frame, EUR/USD maintains a downward trend. The overall macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop remains negative for the U.S. dollar, so we still do not expect any sustained strength in the greenback. As we've noted previously, any upward movement of the USD is likely to be limited to technical corrections—one of which we are currently witnessing. On Wednesday, the pair is expected to trade around the 1.1745–1.1754 zone. Over the past two days, there have been four pullbacks from this area. Each new bounce from this level presents a short opportunity. A breakthrough above this zone would open up the path for long trades targeting 1.1808. However, keep in mind that this week's macroeconomic calendar is packed, and Donald Trump continues to take every opportunity to put pressure on the dollar. For intraday trading on the 5-minute chart, refer to the following levels: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Wednesday, the EU will release inflation data for September—an important report. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (very important) and the slightly less impactful ADP report on private sector employment changes. Key Trading System Rules:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.Key Chart Elements:Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them. Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias. MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator. Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend. Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Early in the European session, the euro is trading around 1.1738, above the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA. The euro could continue its rise only if it sharply breaks the downtrend channel formed since September 16 and consolidates above 1.1770. Conversely, if the euro falls below 1.1714, a continuation of the downward movement is expected, potentially reaching the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596. The Eagle indicator is showing positive signals, so we will look for buying opportunities whenever the price consolidates above the 8/8 Murray level. Any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to enter long positions. This week, data releases will bring strong market volatility, so we must be very careful when trading around the release of these data, as unexpected movements could occur. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy the euro as long as the price remains above 1.1715 with targets at 1.1841, 1.19, and 62. A contrary strategy could be to sell only if the price falls below 1.1700, then we could sell with targets at 1.1796. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading around 114,380, bouncing after reaching the key support at 112,500. Bitcoin could continue its climb in the coming days and advance to 5/8 Murray at 115,625, potentially reaching 6/8 Murray at 118,750. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin price falls below the 4/8 Murray pivot point, we could see a strong technical correction during which the price could reach the psychological level of $110,000 and potentially fall to the 3/8 Murray level around $109,375. The H4 chart shows a positive bias for Bitcoin, so the key will be to monitor whether the price remains above 112,500. Therefore, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions. The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we believe Bitcoin could continue its rise in the coming days, reaching $118,750 around the 6/8 Murray resistance. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is trading around 3,865 with a positive bias and could continue its rise in the coming days, reaching +2/8 of the Murray level at 3,906. The bullish trend channel formed since September 18 is favoring a further upward movement. On the H4 chart, we can see that gold, after reaching a high around 3,870 in the last 24 hours, made a strong technical correction until reaching the support of this channel around 3,795. Gold, after reaching a low at the bottom of the bullish trend channel and around the 21SMA, found a strong technical rebound and is now trading at yesterday's high and could continue its rise in the coming hours, reaching 3,881 and 3,906. Technically, gold is overbought, so a strong technical correction is expected in the coming days, and gold could reach the Murray 8/8 around 3,750. Our trading plan is to open short positions in gold if there is a sharp breakout of the bullish trend channel and a consolidation below the 21SMA around 3,807. If this scenario occurs, we could sell with targets at 3,750, 3,711, and around 3,671. The instrument could even reach the 200EMA around 3,615. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com