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A long-silent Bitcoin wallet woke up this week and emptied roughly 400 BTC into several new addresses. According to blockchain trackers, the address sent its coins in multiple transactions, mostly split into batches of 15 BTC. The total value moved is roughly $44 million, based on current prices. Wallet Linked To Early Mining Reports have disclosed that the coins trace back to mining activity from nearly 15 years ago. Lookonchain tied the funds to the early days of Bitcoin, and records show the wallet last moved coins in 2013, when Bitcoin traded near $135 per unit. That price then compared with today’s level — around $111,763 per BTC — means the holding rose by about 830 times in value since it went quiet. Arkham Intelligence spotted the distribution pattern, noting the repeated 15 BTC transfers that drained the address. Even with full visibility of every transaction on the blockchain, the owner’s identity remains unknown. The pattern — chopping large sums into smaller, repeated amounts — is a common way wallets move coins without dumping everything on a single exchange at once. Part Of A Wave Of Old Addresses Becoming Active This activation comes amid a string of moves from so-called Satoshi-era wallets. Based on reports, institutional and private holdings tied to early investors have been on the move lately. In July, Galaxy Digital sold more than 80,000 BTC linked to an estate, a sale that markets valued at close to $10 billion. Another dormant address holding 444 BTC became active in September 2025 and moved approximately $50 million. Recently, one of the big holders is said to have cycled more than $5 billion of Bitcoin into Ethereum, locking up close to $4 billion worth of ETH afterward. Market Signals Remain Mixed October has traditionally been a good month for Bitcoin, with previous rallies of 40–45% in certain years, but the current signs indicate less conviction. Holder retention level has dropped to 80%, and on-chain derivatives flows and whale outflows suggest weaker demand. Bitcoin was trading near $114,000 at one point today, with a one-day gain of 2.05% reported, but analysts are watching risk levels closely. A continued selloff could push price toward $107,000; renewed buying pressure could take it back up toward $119,000. What This Means Going Forward Movements from Satoshi-era addresses carry symbolic weight, because they come from the group that held Bitcoin when it was still experimental and very cheap. Whether this 400 BTC transfer will spark wider selling or simply mark a reallocation remains to be seen. For now, the market has a clear record of the move, but the reason behind it — estate settlement, profit-taking, or internal reshuffling — is unknown. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Algorand just lined up two fresh catalysts: stablecoin liquidity and leadership, giving bulls a clean October narrative to trade. The Algorand Foundation has partnered with cross-chain protocol Allbridge to roll out a dedicated stablecoin bridge for the Algorand network, with the launch set for the fourth quarter of 2025. The new bridge will enable native stablecoins such as USDC to move directly into the Algorand ecosystem from other blockchains using Allbridge Core. The move is expected to improve liquidity and broaden the use of stablecoins across Algorand-based applications. What Does the Allbridge Integration Mean for Algorand Users? According to an official announcement, the integration builds on Allbridge’s multi-chain infrastructure. The protocol supports more than 20 networks and provides developer APIs for in-app bridging. The ALGO/USDT chart on TradingView shows the token holding above support after bouncing back from September lows. Higher lows are forming on the 4-hour chart, a sign of steady accumulation. Resistance has formed between $0.31 and $0.33, where trading volume is clustering. A push through this zone could open the way to the next target near $0.83. (Source: ALGO USDT, Tradingview) Short-term moving averages are turning upward, while the RSI sits in neutral territory, leaving room for more upside. If buying fades, a pullback to $0.48 is possible. But the broader Elliott Wave count points to a longer-term climb that could extend toward $2.06. The price structure matches a typical Elliott Wave pattern, where Wave 3 is often the strongest advance. Recent developments on the network, including Algorand’s new cross-chain stablecoin bridge with Allbridge, may support liquidity growth and fuel market interest in the months ahead. For now, traders are watching whether ALGO can hold its support base and clear resistance. A breakout would confirm the wave targets and strengthen the case for an altseason rally. Volatility remains a risk, but the chart suggests momentum is building in Algorand’s favor. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Algorand News Could Trigger Major Breakout in October: Here’s Why appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

At midnight Washington time, the U.S. government will "shut down" due to a failure in Congress to reach an agreement on the continuation of enhanced COVID-era benefits. Employees of 21 federal agencies will be placed on unpaid leave. We believe this shutdown will likely be short-lived, as President Trump has threatened to close down additional Democrat-controlled agencies if "Democratic sabotage of government operations" and "reckless Medicare spending" continue. Over the past week, 154,000 federal employees have left their jobs. If we don't receive the September jobs report on Friday due to the shutdown, that alone may lead investors to view the U.S. labor situation more pessimistically. How high could the euro rise? If the government shutdown lasts for two weeks, EUR/USD may climb to the upper boundary of the price channel near the 1.1910 mark. If it ends sooner, the pair is unlikely to reach that level. A limiting factor here is investor risk aversion. Simultaneously, a reverse mechanism could also kick in: increased buying of government bonds (yields have been falling for three straight days), driving demand for dollars and an investor pullback from equity markets. This mechanism could quickly push EUR/USD below the MACD line (1.1703), opening the path toward the first bearish target at 1.1605. Thus, the euro market remains in a state of uncertainty — and its potential decline could occur faster than its potential rise. On the H4 (four-hour) timeframe, the price remains within the range of the MACD indicator lines from both timeframes: 1.1703/68. A breakout above the upper line (1.1768) would allow bulls to push the euro toward 1.1914. Conversely, a firm move below 1.1703 would give bears control over the market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the daily chart, the price is approaching the convergence point of the balance indicator line (red) and the MACD line (blue). If today's potential shutdown of the U.S. government does not trigger a spike in demand for anti-dollar currencies (as we expect), the pound may fail to break through this magnetic level at 1.3466. A pullback toward the support level at 1.3364 (June 23 low) is possible. A firm move below this level would open the path toward the target at 1.3253. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator shows little optimism and is currently signaling a potential downturn. If the price manages to gain a foothold above the MACD line (1.3466), the next target would be 1.3525, with a further upside toward 1.3631 becoming possible. On the H4 (four-hour) chart, the 1.3466 resistance level is reinforced by the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is neutral, moving sideways. A downward reversal toward the support level at 1.3364 remains possible. For now, the bearish scenario is the primary outlook — we await the market's reaction to the U.S. government shutdown. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, with no notable fluctuations, largely due to a relatively steady decline in oil prices (yesterday, -1.50%). The Marlin oscillator has settled in positive territory and is poised to turn upward. A breakout above the resistance level of 1.3958 (the high from September 26) opens the way to the next target at 1.4060. The first sign of a potential alternative (bearish) scenario for the Canadian dollar would be a decline below the 1.3890 level (high from September 11 and yesterday's low). However, a more significant signal would be a break below the 1.3860 level, which would open the path toward 1.3810. On the H4 (4-hour) chart, the price bounced upward yesterday from the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory but would enter the positive zone once the price reaches 1.3958. The bearish signal level of 1.3890 is also reinforced by the MACD line, adding strength to that key level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The SEC and CFTC have finally agreed on something: they need to work together. After years of clashing over who should regulate what in the crypto space, both agencies are now aiming for better coordination. They say the confusion around who’s in charge has gone on for too long and it’s time to bring some order to the chaos. A Joint Roundtable as Starting Point This fresh approach came out of a joint roundtable in Washington, where both sides sat down to talk openly about the mess. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said it’s no longer acceptable for each agency to go off and do its own thing. He pointed out how the lack of coordination causes delays, piles on costs, and makes life harder for both businesses and everyday users. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham backed him up, saying the turf war between the two regulators needs to end if there’s going to be any real progress. Why Harmonization, Not Merger Some people have wondered if the answer is to just combine the two agencies into one. But Atkins made it clear that’s not on the table. The idea isn’t to create a single mega-regulator, but to make sure both sides are playing from the same playbook. That’s especially important when crypto products don’t fit neatly into existing categories. One token might act like a security, another might behave more like a commodity, and many sit somewhere in between. With clearer coordination, both agencies can stay separate but work more smoothly. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 What They Hope to Coordinate So what does coordination actually mean in practice? The goal is to start aligning definitions for trading platforms and products, so they’re not talking past each other. They also want to clean up how data is reported, make sure margin rules don’t clash, and possibly allow more breathing room for innovation. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time One idea floated during the roundtable was creating special carveouts that let new crypto products launch without tripping over conflicting rules. Commissioner Mark Uyeda also flagged how some of the older regulatory frameworks simply don’t work for what today’s markets look like, which adds another layer of confusion. What This Signals for Crypto Markets For crypto companies and traders, this new tone could be a big deal. Until now, many firms have had to guess which rules apply, or follow both just to be safe. That’s not just stressful, it’s expensive. If the SEC and CFTC can pull this off, it might finally bring some clarity. But they’ll still need help from Congress to really clean up the legal boundaries. Right now, each agency is limited in what it can do without new laws. The hope is that working together can fill the gaps, at least for now. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 What to Watch Next This won’t be solved overnight. The real test is whether the two agencies stick to the plan. Will they actually align their definitions and reporting rules? Will they respond in a coordinated way when crypto companies start pushing limits? And will lawmakers step in to set clearer rules of the road? These are the things that will decide if this turns into lasting reform or just another press release. For now, at least, the SEC and CFTC are finally talking, and that alone feels like a change. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The SEC and CFTC have agreed to coordinate their efforts after years of confusion around crypto regulation. A joint roundtable marked the start of this new approach, with both agencies calling for clearer roles and communication. They plan to harmonize definitions, reporting standards, and margin rules without merging into one agency. The goal is to reduce cost, speed up innovation, and give crypto companies more clarity on compliance. This cooperation could lead to lasting reform if Congress supports it, but the results will depend on real follow-through. The post SEC and CFTC Plan to Work Together on Crypto Oversight appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.78–$0.80, struggling beneath a strong resistance at $0.83–$0.85, where the 50/100/200-day EMAs converge. Prediction markets currently assign a 91%–95% chance of U.S. Cardano spot ETF approval, with dates tentatively set for late October 2025. This narrative has helped stabilize sentiment after September’s decline. Bulls believe institutional access could mirror BTC/ETH’s ETF strategy by increasing liquidity and expanding demand. However, options activity remains subdued, and recent long liquidations suggest traders are cautious about chasing gains before a clear breakout. If ADA closes above $0.85, potential upward targets are $0.87 (Fib 0.382) and $0.90 (Fib 0.5). Cardano (ADA) Key Levels: $0.78 Support, Then $0.75 and $0.71 The Cardano (ADA) near-term structure is a range between $0.78 and $0.83 after a pullback from highs near $0.95. Momentum has improved from oversold levels, but Parabolic SAR remains above the price, and the trend hasn’t fully flipped. Immediate support is at $0.78, with deeper liquidity pockets at $0.75 and $0.71; a failure there exposes $0.68 as the last major defense. Analysts also point out a developing death-cross risk on lower timeframes, implying rallies could fade without new catalysts. Macro factors remain influential: tighter financial conditions or a Bitcoin retrace can reduce altcoin bids, capping ADA under resistance even if ETF headlines stay strong. The 2026 Bear Case: Why Sub-$0.30 Isn’t Impossible Beyond the next few weeks, some strategists warn of a path where ADA may revisit sub-$0.30 in 2026. The reasoning: at a roughly $34B market cap near $0.80, multiples might shrink unless usage growth significantly accelerates. While Cardano promotes research-driven upgrades (Ouroboros Leios, the Omega roadmap) and has an eight-year record with no downtime, critics point to slow app adoption, capital shifting to newer ecosystems, and ETF attention potentially directing flows into a few large caps. If global liquidity tightens, ETFs underperform, or structural demand weakens, a prolonged cycle could push ADA toward value zones below $0.30, where longer-term buyers might enter. In the short term, watch $0.83–$0.85 for a trend reversal and $0.78/$0.75 on the downside. The ETF story provides ADA with a real catalyst, but actual delivery and demand must materialize. Without that, the 2026 sub-$0.30 scenario remains a possible risk, especially if macroeconomic headwinds emerge. Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $4,175. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,240 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,100 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,160 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,120 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,220 and $4,240. Ethereum Price Eyes Upside Break Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,050 level and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to recover above the $4,150 and $4,200 resistance levels. The price even spiked toward $4,240 before there was a minor pullback. The price is again rising from $4,095 and trading near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,237 swing high to the $4,093 low. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,120 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,160 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,200 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,237 swing high to the $4,093 low. The next key resistance is near the $4,240 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,280 level. A clear move above the $4,280 resistance might send the price toward the $4,320 resistance. An upside break above the $4,320 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,450 resistance zone or even $4,500 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,120 level and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $4,095 zone. A clear move below the $4,095 support might push the price toward the $4,020 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,920 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,840. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,120 Major Resistance Level – $4,240

Wisconsin lawmakers have put forward a new bill that could make life a lot easier for people working in crypto. The proposal, called Assembly Bill 471, aims to remove the need for a money transmitter license for certain blockchain-related activities. It’s meant to give a little more freedom to developers, stakers, node operators, and others who help keep crypto networks running behind the scenes. What the Bill Actually Covers This bill would let people accept crypto payments, use self-hosted wallets, or run a node without needing a money transmitter license from the state. It also covers things like creating blockchain software or staking your own crypto. If passed, the law would prevent state or local agencies from getting in the way of these activities. That’s a big deal for people who aren’t running exchanges or handling customer funds, but still play a key role in how crypto works. Where the Line Is Drawn The bill is not giving a free pass to everyone. It draws a clear line when it comes to converting crypto into regular money. If your business involves turning digital assets into dollars or handling bank deposits, this bill won’t apply to you. The focus is on protecting activities that happen entirely within the crypto world, not those that touch the traditional financial system. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Support, But No Guarantee Yet This isn’t just a one-party project. The bill already has support from lawmakers on both sides, with nine sponsors signed on. Even so, it hasn’t passed yet. It’s now sitting with the Committee on Financial Institutions, waiting to be reviewed. That means it could still be revised, delayed, or rejected depending on how the discussion plays out. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Why Some Are Backing It People who support the bill say it could help bring more crypto activity to Wisconsin. They think it gives much-needed clarity for small teams and solo developers who might be afraid of getting caught up in confusing regulations. Some believe it could even set an example for other states to follow, especially those still figuring out how to approach crypto. Not everyone is sold, though. Critics point out that state rules can only go so far. Federal laws still apply, and agencies like FinCEN are unlikely to change their stance just because Wisconsin does. The bill also doesn’t apply to banks or platforms that convert crypto to fiat, which limits how much it really changes. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Why It’s Coming Up Now There’s a reason this is happening now. Crypto regulation is all over the place, and businesses are tired of guessing what the rules are from one state to another. A move like this could make Wisconsin more appealing to crypto developers who just want to build without worrying about whether they’re breaking the law. What Comes Next The main thing to watch is whether the bill clears the committee and makes it to a vote. Even if it passes, people will be watching to see how Wisconsin actually handles enforcement. Businesses will need to decide if the law makes the state more crypto-friendly in practice, not just on paper. Either way, it’s a sign that states are starting to think harder about how crypto fits into the bigger picture. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Wisconsin’s Assembly Bill 471 would remove the need for a money transmitter license for crypto activities like staking, running a node, or using self-hosted wallets. The bill protects blockchain developers and participants who stay within the crypto ecosystem and don’t convert assets to fiat. It already has bipartisan support but still needs to pass through the Committee on Financial Institutions before becoming law. Supporters believe the bill could attract more crypto builders to Wisconsin by offering regulatory clarity. Federal laws still apply, so the bill’s impact may be limited, especially for companies that interact with banks or fiat currencies. The post Wisconsin Bill Looks to Ease Crypto Rules for Everyday Users appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility once again. The looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown had virtually no impact on trader sentiment — but that may not be the real reason. More likely, the market simply isn't willing to take risks right now or open positions that it might seriously regret in a few days. This explains both the low trading activity and the muted volatility. The dollar's position remains as vulnerable as ever. The greenback fell like a stone in early 2025, even as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England were cutting interest rates. Now, roles have reversed: the ECB and BoE are taking a wait-and-see approach, while the Fed is moving toward easing. We don't need to spell out what that means for the dollar. Additionally, we have the ongoing trade war. This was one of the key drivers behind the dollar's collapse in 2025. While Trump hasn't introduced any new tariffs lately, no one is under the illusion that the trade tensions are over. The market may have hoped that the worst was behind us, but once again, Trump proved that "rock bottom" is a relative term. A few weeks ago, he raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to New Delhi's refusal to stop buying Russian oil and gas. And just last week, he imposed tariffs on all imported medicines, furniture, and pickup trucks — with medications now taxed at a hefty 100%. Why hold back, right? So, anyone expecting things to calm down on the trade front is in for a rude awakening. And let's not forget about U.S. economic data and the ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve. Traders might not even see new macro data this week if the shutdown starts on October 1. We don't recall whether the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shut down during the last government shutdown (which also happened under Trump), but the possibility exists. If the reports do get published this week, expectations are so low that almost anything could be seen as a positive surprise. For example, if the U.S. economy created just 50,000 jobs outside the agricultural sector in September — a very modest number — it might still be considered bullish for the dollar simply because forecasts are even lower. That said, even if the dollar rises on such data, it won't change underlying conditions: the labor market won't actually be stronger, the Fed won't stop cutting rates, inflation won't magically fall, and Trump certainly won't stop pressuring the Fed. Truthfully, we'd need five or six more articles just to cover all the factors contributing to the dollar's long-term decline. We would even argue that the shutdown is far from the biggest problem facing the U.S. currency. On the daily time frame, the pair has been correcting for a couple of months, but there's still no sign of a reversal in the overall uptrend. In the bigger picture, the pair remains in a broad sideways range (flat). As of October 1, the average volatility for the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days stands at 90 pips, which is moderate for this pair. On Wednesday, we expect movement within the 1.3352-1.3532 range. The longer-term linear regression channel is still pointing upward, indicating a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator has once again entered oversold territory, signaling a potential resumption of the upward movement. Nearest Support Levels:: S1 – 1.3428S2 – 1.3367S3 – 1.3306Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3489R2 – 1.3550R3 – 1.3611Trading Recommendations: GBP/USD is currently undergoing a correction, but its long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, so we do not expect a sustained rebound in the U.S. currency. Long positions remain more relevant with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733, as long as the price stays above the moving average.Conversely, if the price falls below the moving average line, small short positions may be considered based on technical analysis, with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3352.The U.S. dollar occasionally shows signs of recovery, like it is now, but for the greenback to strengthen in a sustainable, trend-driven manner, the market needs to see real signs of progress — such as the end of the trade war or other significant positive developments. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair once again traded calmly on the second trading day of the week. While there was a minor intraday upward bias on Monday, it remained weak, accompanied by low volatility. Now that it's October 1 — and there's a 95% chance the U.S. government will shut down along with all federal agencies — the dollar's reaction to negative news is surprisingly modest. In fact, we would say it isn't reacting at all. Is this justified? Of course not. Even without the shutdown threat, there are already plenty of solid reasons for the dollar to be falling. While the pair has undergone a correction over the last two weeks, the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop has not changed. And most importantly, Donald Trump's policy direction hasn't changed either. The "New Shutdown," courtesy of Trump, might differ from previous ones in that, instead of sending federal workers on unpaid leave — as in the past — they'll simply be fired. At least, that's what Trump himself suggested. We find this highly unlikely, as it simply doesn't make sense. Why fire tens of thousands of government employees only to hire others one or two months later? Most likely, workers will be placed on unpaid leave as before. The threat of mass layoffs is simply a political pressure tactic aimed at Democrats. That way, Trump will be able to shift blame by saying the Democrats are responsible — something he's already doing in various interviews. This time, the sticking point is social and healthcare programs. Democrats are demanding a partial repeal of Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill," which was passed earlier without their input. Let's recall that the Republican Party currently has enough votes in both chambers of Congress to enact legislation unilaterally. However, within the Republican Party itself, decisions are essentially made by one person — Trump. As a result, he now holds a near "super-power" status. However, when it comes to passing the federal budget, at least 60 votes are required in the Senate. The Republicans have only 53 reliable votes in the upper chamber, so they cannot pass the budget alone. The Democrats have sensed weakness and are now seizing this opportunity to push back against a series of Trump-era policies. Let's not forget that midterm elections for the House of Representatives are scheduled for next year, and the Republicans are widely expected to lose their majority. Of course, this is speculation — but can anyone honestly claim the average American is happy with the current situation? Historically, the Republican Party represents the interests of the wealthy, and wealthy Americans aren't struggling under Trump. They don't care about cutting funding for social and healthcare programs, especially since their tax cuts were significantly larger than those offered to the working class. This is why Democrats now see it as essential to show they are willing to fight for the rights and freedoms of ordinary Americans rather than cooperate with Trump unconditionally. As a result, this shutdown could drag on for quite some time. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days (as of October 1) is 71 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect price movement within the range of 1.1660 to 1.1802 on Wednesday. The longer-term linear regression channel still points upward, indicating a continued uptrend. The CCI indicator recently entered overbought territory, triggering the latest round of downward correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1719S2 – 1.1597S3 – 1.1475Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1841R2 – 1.1963Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair remains in a corrective phase; however, the broader uptrend remains intact across all timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to face strong headwinds from Donald Trump's erratic policymaking — and he doesn't seem to be slowing down. The dollar spent a whole month pushing higher, but it now appears the market is preparing for another prolonged downward leg. If the price is below the moving average, short positions may be considered with targets at 1.1660 and 1.1597, based solely on technical reasoning.If the price remains above the moving average line, long positions stay relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1963, in line with the existing uptrend.Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also traded in a "neither here nor there" fashion. While the euro at least attempted to establish some directional movement throughout the day, the British pound didn't offer even that. Nevertheless, the pound managed to remain above the 1.3420 level as well as above the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator. Earlier, the price had broken through a descending trend line, indicating that the trend has shifted to being upward. All that's left now is for the upward movement to resume, with hopes that this week's macroeconomic backdrop won't spoil the technical picture. But it very well might. Yesterday's GDP report from the UK and the JOLTs report from the U.S. had virtually no impact on trader sentiment. However, today marks the likely start of a U.S. government shutdown — another strong reason to offload the dollar. Many analysts agree that the shutdown will bring nothing good for the greenback. Though analysts aside, this is rather obvious. Right now, the labor market is not expected to deliver encouraging figures, and business activity indices have been disappointing more often than not. So the fundamental backdrop supports another leg lower for the U.S. dollar. Over the course of the trading day, the price bounced off the 1.3420–1.3429 zone five or six times. Each of these signals could've been used to enter long positions, but with daily volatility around just 50 pips and no clear trend, robust opportunities were limited. Nonetheless, we continue to believe in the pound's upside potential. COT Report COT reports on the British pound indicate that, in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly shifting. The red and blue lines, representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and mostly hover near the zero mark. Currently, they are nearly at the same level, indicating roughly equal numbers of long and short positions. The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so in principle, market makers' demand for sterling is not especially important right now. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for an extended period. The Fed will cut rates in the coming year anyway. Demand for the dollar is expected to continue declining. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound appreciated significantly, and the reason behind this change is clear: the policies of Trump. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may shift into growth, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position of the pound rises or falls. For the dollar, it is falling anyway, usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis In the hourly time frame, GBP/USD is trying to bring some order to the chaos of the past few weeks — namely, the unwanted appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The trendline has been broken, meaning traders are now justified in expecting a continuation of the upside move. The dollar still lacks strong fundamental drivers for a long-term rally, so we believe the 2025 bullish trend is likely to resume in any case. For October 1, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. In addition, keep an eye on the Senkou Span B (1.3574) and Kijun-sen (1.3405) The stop loss should be moved to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in favor of the position. Keep in mind that Ichimoku lines may shift throughout the day, which needs to be taken into account when planning trades. No important economic reports or events are scheduled for Wednesday in the UK. In the U.S., ADP employment data and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. The second report is more significant, but the first can still elicit a strong reaction if it comes as a surprise. Trading Recommendations Today, traders can aim for continued upward movement as long as the price remains above the 1.3420–1.3429 support zone. In this case, the next bullish target lies in the 1.3533–1.3548 range. If price falls back below the defined support zone, a pullback toward the 1.3369–1.3377 area would become more likely. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair traded in both directions without establishing a clear directional bias. A significant amount of macroeconomic data was released throughout the day, influencing market sentiment and causing the pair to fluctuate. Key reports included German inflation and unemployment data, as well as the U.S. JOLTS job openings report. Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, exceeding forecasts, and unemployment remained unchanged at 6.3%. These can be viewed as relatively solid reports for the euro. Meanwhile, the JOLTs report showed 7.227 million job openings in August, nearly in line with expectations — making the data neutral or "conditionally positive" for the dollar. Overall, the market chose not to react aggressively, likely because far more critical data is expected later this week; moreover, the potential onset of a U.S. government shutdown as early as today created further uncertainty. On the 5-minute chart, EUR/USD moved in a manner that rendered trade signals largely meaningless. While signals did form, they weren't worth acting upon. Early in the day, the price broke through the critical line, but opening long positions made little sense with a strong resistance zone just 17 pips above. The price bounced off the 1.1750–1.1760 resistance area twice, but again, short positions didn't make sense, as the Kijun-sen line acted as support just below. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 23. As the chart above clearly shows, the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish." Bears barely managed to gain control at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office for his second term as president, the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, but current global developments suggest otherwise. We still see no fundamental reasons for the euro to weaken, while there remain plenty of reasons for the dollar to fall. The global downtrend remains in place, but what does it matter now where the price moved over the past 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may recover, but recent events suggest that the war will continue in one form or another. The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence is another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The positions of the red and blue lines of the indicator continue to indicate a bullish trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 2,600. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts for the week. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly time frame, EUR/USD continues to form a short-term downtrend, which cannot yet be considered fully complete. That said, we still see no strong catalysts for a sustained dollar rally. On the daily chart, the broader uptrend remains intact, and signs of dollar strength remain relatively weak. On lower time frames, the dollar is exhibiting localized growth, but this trend may come to an end soon. For October 1, we highlight the following support and resistance levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988. In addition, keep an eye on the Senkou Span B line (1.1782) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1712). Note: Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, so traders should adjust their strategy accordingly. Be sure to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in your favor to protect against false signals. On Wednesday, the eurozone will release inflation data for September. If it exceeds the forecast of 2.2%, it could support the euro. Meanwhile, the U.S. will publish the ISM Manufacturing PMI — a key indicator — and the lesser but still notable ADP employment report. Trading RecommendationsOn Tuesday, the euro's recovery may continue. Traders should look for a break above the 1.1750–1.1760 resistance zone to consider the current downtrend invalidated. A rebound from this area presents an opportunity for short positions, but keep in mind that much depends on the macroeconomic backdrop this week. At this moment, continued dollar strength appears to be the less likely scenario. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ripple is taking another bold step toward mainstream finance by extending the reach of its Interledger Protocol into the SWIFT network, regarded as the backbone of global payments. By enabling interoperability between two of the most influential payment ecosystems, Ripple is positioning XRP as a key player in the future of international money movement. Could XRP Become A Standard For Settlement? The strategy for mainstream adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and its native asset, XRP, is intricately linked to the Interledger Protocol (ILP). As highlighted by researcher SMQKE on X, Ripple’s approach is to become an essential part of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) network, providing an interoperable layer that seamlessly bridges the old and new financial worlds. This Interledger Protocol is designed to synchronize separate ledgers without forming a new one, while acting as a connective tissue across financial systems. In many ways, it mirrors SWIFT’s own structure, where the successful processing of a payment message creates binding obligations to pay between nodes and intermediaries. However, ILP is Ripple’s core strategy for mainstream adoption of the XRP Ledger. By making ILP fully compatible with SWIFT, Ripple ensures that both XRP and its technology can plug into the world’s most dominant payment network. What’s important about this move is the fact that Ripple itself is now often described as evolving into the Interledger Protocol initiative. Ripple understood that the world would never standardize on a single ledger, which is why it built ILP to enable interoperability to bridge across multiple systems. Meanwhile, this approach is reinforced through the ISO 20022 adoption to ensure that the entire transaction is secure, seamless, and scalable, offering a superior settlement experience that coexists with the bank’s existing messaging connectivity across the global financial infrastructure. “The strategy is clear: one protocol (ILP), unlimited networks, and seamless XRP movement,” SMQKE noted. The Promise Of Financial Freedom With XRP As the crypto landscape expands, XRP has been hailed as an asset that could offer financial breakthroughs. The sentiment expressed by Traveler2236 points to a profound vision of global financial inclusion and the end of economic inequality enforced by legacy systems. His core claim is that there will come a day when XRP will unleash dreams beyond imagination. Also, there will be no denials because of a credit score, and no more doors closed because your income doesn’t match some arbitrary outcome. Traveler2236’s statement is not merely a prediction, but a declaration of certainty, bordering on a personal epiphany. “This isn’t a dream anymore, it’s happening right now,” the expert stated.

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave and traded above $114,200. BTC is now consolidating gains and facing hurdles near $114,750. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $114,000 zone. The price is trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $113,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $114,750 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $112,000 zone and started a recovery wave. BTC settled above the $113,200 resistance zone to start the current move. The bulls were able to pump the price above the $114,000 and $114,200 levels. The bulls even cleared the $114,500 level. A high was formed at $114,770 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $108,677 swing low to the $114,771 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $113,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $114,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,000 level. The next resistance could be $115,500. A close above the $115,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $116,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $117,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,00. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $114,750 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $113,300 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $112,200 level. The next support is now near the $111,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $111,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $113,300, followed by $112,200. Major Resistance Levels – $114,750 and $115,000.

Hedera’s HBAR declined about 1.6% for the day to hover near $0.211, but the overall outlook into “Uptober” remains positive. Momentum is supported by increasing ETF optimism, with new trust and ETF discussions bringing HBAR into the same conversation as large-cap altcoins, along with renewed engagement from SWIFT. Hedera Makes Global Partnerships Hedera representatives participated with SWIFT, Citi, and Germany’s Bundesbank on a Sibos panel to discuss digital-currency interoperability, highlighting Hedera’s role in real-world finance. Meanwhile, Wyoming’s Frontier Stablecoin pilot, which selects HBAR for low-cost, high-speed settlement, continues to validate Hedera’s enterprise-first approach. Under the Hedera Governing Council, featuring companies like Google and IBM, the network’s value proposition is clear: high throughput, low fees, and energy efficiency through its hashgraph consensus. These fundamentals, combined with institutional filings and improved macro narratives for regulated crypto products, keep HBAR on watch lists despite short-term volatility. Price Action: HBAR Key Levels Into “Uptober” Technically, HBAR’s structure shows a recovery from a two-month low near $0.21, with the price still coiling inside a descending wedge, a setup that often precedes upside moves when broader sentiment turns positive. Immediate support lies between $0.212 and $0.205; losing that range could lead to a slide toward $0.198. On the upside, $0.226–$0.230 remains the first barrier; a clear break above could target $0.235 and the mid-September highs near $0.245, with $0.285 as the October stretch level if buying momentum accelerates. Momentum indicators are mixed but stabilizing. RSI has rebounded from oversold (28) into the mid-40s, while Chaikin Money Flow trends higher, suggesting net inflows. The near-term warns of a narrowing golden cross between the 50- and 200-day EMAs that could turn into a death cross if bulls fail to defend the support levels. For swing traders, the strategy is simple: respect downside risk below $0.205, but look for confirmation above $0.230 to push toward $0.245–$0.285. Enterprise Adoption Gains Momentum, With Risks HBAR’s story is supported by enterprise integrations (payments, identity, and tokenization) and consistently very low fees (<$0.0001), making it appealing for high-frequency settlement. On-chain, active addresses and staking participation have increased, and sentiment is bullish going into Q4, driven by ETF hopes and public-sector pilots. However, risks remain, including rejection at $0.235, which could lead to continued consolidation; competition from high-throughput rivals like Solana remains intense; and broader Bitcoin declines could limit altcoin rallies. Cover image from ChatGPT, HBARUSD chart from Tradingview

US- based Momentum Technologies announced Monday it has proven its ability to deliver commercial-quality battery materials at scale. The company said its demonstration unit in Carrollton, Texas has achieved commercial-grade purity and yield within the first year of the facility’s opening, marking a milestone in the company’s scale-up journey from pilot-scale operations to full commercial readiness. Momentum said its proprietary Membrane Solvent Extraction (MSX) technology represents the culmination of a systematic scale-up process that began with pilot-scale validation and has now been proven at demonstration scale. The company said it has consistently produced high-purity nickel, cobalt, and lithium streams from end-of-life batteries, with yields exceeding 90% and product purity over 99%, meeting quality specifications required by battery manufacturers, including battery-grade purity for nickel sulfate. In April, Momentum was awarded on TIME’s list of America’s Top GreenTech Companies 2025. “This facility was designed to validate our process at scale, and today’s results confirm its success,” Momentum CEO Mahesh Konduru said in a news release. “This achievement demonstrates that our technology is commercially viable and ready for widespread deployment. We’ve proven that a domestic, circular supply chain for critical minerals is more than possible, it’s operational and scalable for industrial applications.” The successful scale-up from pilot to demonstration scale has enabled Momentum to optimize its proprietary MSX technology while implementing critical systems-level improvements, it said. Momentum said its commercial expansion plans include an additional facility in Ohio.

On-chain data shows a Cardano whale has made a massive withdrawal from Coinbase, a sign that may be bullish for the ADA price. Cardano Whale Has Withdrawn Big From Coinbase According to data from cryptocurrency transaction tracker service Whale Alert, a large transfer has been spotted on the Cardano blockchain during the past day. The move in question involved the shifting of about 67.8 million ADA across the network, worth over $54.3 million at the time that the sender executed the transaction. Considering the significant scale of the transfer, it’s likely that a whale entity was responsible for it. Whales are big-money investors who carry large amounts in their wallets and hold the power to make huge individual transactions. Because of this, these holders can have some degree of influence in the market. As such, what they are doing on the network can be worth keeping an eye on, as it may reveal the sentiment among them. Usually, though, the anonymous nature of the blockchain means it can be hard to comment on the motive behind a particular transaction. In the case of the current Cardano whale transfer, however, one side of the move involves a wallet that’s already known. Below are the address details related to the transaction. As is visible, the sending address for this Cardano whale transaction was a wallet attached to cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. Meanwhile, the receiver was an unknown wallet, meaning that it was likely the investor’s self-custodial address. Transfers of this type, where coins flow out of the custody of a centralized exchange, are known as exchange outflows. Generally, investors make exchange outflows when they plan to hold their tokens in the long term, as self-custody tends to be a safer option for them. The latest large Coinbase withdrawal has come as Cardano is significantly down compared to its peak from earlier in September. As such, it’s possible that the move could be an indication of the whale betting on the asset at the current post-dip prices. It only remains to be seen whether the gamble will pay off for the investor. Another altcoin, XRP, has also just witnessed a large transaction, as Whale Alert has pointed out in another X post. Unlike ADA’s transfer, however, this whale move has been an Exchange Inflow. In total, the XRP whale has shifted 18 million tokens of the cryptocurrency (worth around $51.4 million) to Coinbase with the transaction. Holders use exchanges for trading purposes, so it’s possible that the large investor may be looking to exit. ADA Price At the time of writing, Cardano is floating around $0.79, down almost 4% over the last seven days.

A fresh bout of tribal sparring over token valuations broke out on X after CoinRoutes founder Dave Weisberger asked why XRP trades at more than ten times the market value of Chainlink’s LINK despite Chainlink’s high-profile role in financial-market infrastructure. The exchange, which followed Swift’s announcement at Sibos that it will launch a blockchain-based ledger, quickly crystallized two very different theories of “value capture” in crypto: a native asset securing and settling an L1 network versus a utility token powering oracle middleware. Weisberger set the stage with a direct challenge to the XRP community: “Can someone from the XRP army (@xrpmickle) explain how XRP is more than TEN times LINK’s value, when LINK has a REAL partnership with SWIFT, AND a clear path to revenue to be shared with Token holders…” The prompt referenced Chainlink’s post congratulating Swift on adopting “blockchains and oracle networks as a key next step,” and emphasizing that Chainlink and Swift “have collaborated across numerous initiatives” to connect financial institutions to blockchains using existing infrastructure and standards. Why Is XRP 10x More ‘Valuable’ Than LINK What followed was equal parts token-economics debate and culture clash. Weisberger, who later clarified “To be clear, I hold both,” added that he thinks “XRP bulls are delusional in their calls,” while conceding that such delusion does not preclude outperformance versus traditional assets. His framing invited two lines of reply: the “volume and adoption” argument and the “different problem, different TAM” argument. On the data front, one respondent, @baggins_cc, asserted that “The XRP token has a $172B market cap, while LINK has $14B (1/10th). And when looking at the last 24h, by volume, XRPL has processed $4.9B in revenue, compared to LINK, which only has processed $641M. Marketcap is absolute when it comes to ranking, and Volume is empirical & objectively a fact, when it comes to real world adoption.” Weisberger pushed back with a counterexample intended to decouple throughput from token value: “What is the value of XRPL to XRP when TRX processes more than 500 TIMES USDT by value and is 1/5th the market cap?” The thrust: raw settlement or messaging volume does not automatically translate into superior price performance or capitalization for a token. The second, more structural line of response came from former Ripple engineer Matt Hamilton. In a succinct distinction, he wrote: “Trying to compare their value is sort of meaningless. Link is a protocol, the XRP Ledger is an actual network. XRP is the native asset of that entire network. Link is just the token used within the link protocol.” In other words, the two assets occupy different positions in the technology stack: XRP is the base-layer currency of an L1 that provides security, fee payment, and liquidity for its ledger; LINK is the work token for an oracle protocol that sits above execution layers to deliver data and cross-chain services. That stack-positioning argument was amplified by the XRP army member “Ripple Bull Winkle,” who reframed the comparison in terms of addressable markets: “Because XRP isn’t competing with LINK — it’s solving a different problem on a much larger scale. LINK = middleware for data feeds. XRP = bridge asset for global settlement. One secures oracles, the other settles value between banks, CBDCs, tokenized treasuries, & stablecoins. The TAM for cross-border payments dwarfs oracle revenue. And by the way — Ripple has been partnered with SWIFT participants for years. This isn’t XRP vs LINK, it’s XRP in the heart of the plumbing that moves the actual money. That’s why the market values it 10x higher.” Other replies took aim at investor narratives themselves. When a commenter criticized Weisberger’s “lazy ask,” he volleyed back with a reminder that many were “talked into XRP based on SWIFT, despite no clear token economics and no definitive use case,” nodding to years of marketing-driven expectations that official banking rails would one day require XRP. In the end, the thread does not “prove” why XRP is worth ten times LINK or vice versa; instead, it exposes a fundamental split in crypto investing frameworks. One camp prioritizes native-asset economics of base layers and their role as neutral settlement media; the other prioritizes revenue-bearing middleware whose services are indispensable to a tokenized financial system. As the Swift news resets expectations about how legacy rails will interface with blockchains, the core question for markets remains unchanged: which designs actually trap value, and how verifiably do those mechanics funnel real-world usage into persistent demand for the token itself? On that score, the debate is far from settled. At press time, XRP traded at $2.84.

Bitcoin (BTC USD) price closed September near $113,400, slipping from an intraday high of $114,842 as trading wrapped up on September 30. The late-month pause came as gold pushed to fresh all-time highs, renewing debate over whether Bitcoin might follow bullion’s lead into Q4. Gold’s surge set the tone for the close. As per Reuters report, Spot XAU/USD touched roughly $3,871 per ounce on Sept. 30, lifted by US government shutdown concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve may lean toward policy easing. Market watchers say a softer yield backdrop could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the weeks ahead. DISCOVER: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in 2025 CME Gap at $110,00 Remains Near-Term Downside Target for Bears For Bitcoin, $115,000 now stands out as the first upside trigger, while a Chicago Mercantile Exchange “gap” near $110,000 remains a near-term downside magnet. Traders described the latest action as consolidation, noting parallels between BTC’s setup and gold’s breakout pattern. “The breakout is coded. Next stop: price discovery mode,” one analyst posted. Gold recently climbed above $3,800 per ounce, marking a new high. If Bitcoin follows the same path, it could target resistance near $125,000 and potentially higher, echoing past late-year rallies. Traders remain cautious about the near term. Another correction toward the $109,000–$110,000 zone remains possible before momentum picks up again. A decisive close above $118,000 would confirm a bullish continuation. (Source: X) With Tether’s billion-dollar buy and gold’s record run forming the backdrop, sentiment is tilting positive. Q4 has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods, and many see the stage set for another attempt at fresh highs before the end of the year. DISCOVER: 15+ Upcoming Coinbase Listings to Watch in 2025 The post Will Bitcoin Follow Gold in Q4? BTC USD Price Analysis For Monthly Close as Bears Target CME Gap appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Most Read: Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels AUD/USD has risen 0.6% from its Tuesday low of 0.6572 as the US Dollar continued its slide. The Dollar struggle is partly linked to a potential US Government shutdown with Congress needing to agree to temporary funding before 04h00 GMT on Wednesday. RBA Rate Hold Boosts Aussie Dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its main interest rate, known as the cash rate, unchanged at 3.6%. This decision was expected by the markets and indicates a more cautious approach by the central bank. This careful stance is due to concerns that overall inflation is starting to creep up toward the top of the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Because of this decision, the chances of the RBA cutting rates at its next meeting in November are now much lower, which is helping to keep the Australian dollar strong. According to LSEG data, markets are now pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hold from the RBA at the November meeting. Source: LSEG The recent rise in annual CPI inflation to 3% is causing uncertainty about whether it is just a temporary spike or a sign of deeper, lasting inflation problems. Specifically, prices for housing-related items, like rent and new homes, showed renewed strength, which might suggest the housing market is reacting to the RBA's earlier rate cuts. Furthermore, the sharp increase in prices for services, such as holidays, travel, and insurance, points to a rebound in consumer spending. As things stand, the RBA would like to see inflation pushing lower toward the 2.5% mark and sustainably so. If this happens, there is a chance that a rate cut in November could yet materialize. In the interim though, the Aussie Dollar should get a boost from the RBA decision and rhetoric. US Data and Government Shutdown Now in Focus The rest of the week will see attention shift to the US Dollar and its reaction to a potential US Government shutdown. A shutdown could lead to the NFP data release being delayed and that could bring about some form of volatility. If temporary funding is agreed, then attention will immediately shift to NFP and jobs data from the US. A weaker NFP print could aid the AUD/USD to rise further and test the YTD high. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD is on a three day winning streak after bouncing off support at the 100-day MA. Structure has been broken with Tuesday's daily candle closing above the recent swing high at 0.6600. Further strengthening the case for further upside, is the bull flag breakout which occurred on Tuesday as well. Immediate resistance rests at 0.6684 before the 0.6750 and 0.7000 psychological level comes into focus. If AUD/USD pushes lower from here, immediate support rests at 0.6542, 0.6522 and 0.6500. A break below 0.6500 could open up a retest of the 200-day MA, which rests at the 0.6408 handle. AUD/USD Daily Chart, September 30, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen continues to gain intraday strength. Despite mixed views expressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its recently released Summary of Opinions, investors appear convinced that the central bank is leaning toward a path of monetary policy normalization. This perception is helping to offset weak domestic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales, lending additional support to the yen. Rising geopolitical tensions and fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown also contribute to the yen's demand as a safe-haven currency. The Bank of Japan's tone remains notably hawkish, standing in contrast to growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. This divergence is weighing on the dollar and supporting demand for the lower-yielding yen, indicating a broader shift toward downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The yen continues to benefit from both the BoJ's relatively aggressive policy stance and increased safe-haven flows. The BoJ's Summary of Opinions for September, published on Tuesday, showed mounting pressure from "hawks" advocating for policy normalization. Still, board members remained uncertain about the dynamics of inflation and the influence of global economic factors, signaling that any future rate hikes will be carefully considered. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's retail sales slipped by 1.1% year-over-year in August — the first decline since February 2022 and the steepest drop since August 2021. This was significantly worse than the market's forecast for a 1% increase and followed a 0.4% decrease in July. Additionally, industrial production declined for the second consecutive month, falling 1.2% in August, against expectations for a 0.7% decrease. These figures reflect growing caution among Japanese businesses, partly due to concerns over U.S. tariffs. Regarding recent trade developments, the U.S. administration announced on Tuesday that President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to adjust the import regime for lumber, timber, and related products. Imports from the European Union and Japan will be subject to a restriction of up to 15%. At the same time, domestic political uncertainty in Japan is fueling speculation that the BoJ may delay its next rate hike, which in turn limits further immediate gains in the yen following two consecutive days of appreciation versus the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, a major pullback in the currency remains unlikely. Traders are still factoring in the potential for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BoJ as soon as October. Meanwhile, expectations for two Fed rate cuts before year-end, combined with risks from the U.S. government shutdown, continue to cap the dollar's upside and support the lower-yielding but more stable Japanese yen. From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has found support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), just above a key support level at 147.50. A sustained break below this level could send the pair down toward the psychological 147.00 mark, increasing the probability of a bearish trend continuation. Should prices recover above the psychological level of 148.00, the pair may attempt to revisit the 200-day SMA around the 148.40 area — followed again by resistance at the round number of 149.00 and then 149.45. A successful break of this zone could open the door toward the sentiment-sensitive 150.00 level. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, keeping upward momentum modestly alive and leaving some hope for the bulls. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How will the dollar react to the shutdown? So far, the market isn't jumping the gun—it's not rushing ahead of the train. However, economists have reviewed historical price data and found that during the last three government shutdowns, the dollar has inevitably declined. The decline didn't start immediately—it kicked in over time and even continued after the shutdowns ended. In simpler terms, a shutdown is like a time-delayed landmine for the U.S. dollar. Take the previous shutdown, for example, which ironically happened under Trump's first term in 2018–2019. It was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 35 days. During that time, the dollar lost about 2% of its value. That might not sound catastrophic, but back then, there weren't nearly as many other forces weighing down the dollar on the forex market. Today, the shutdown is far from the dollar's biggest problem. The looming issue of future monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve promises even greater losses for the dollar. The still-escalating trade war is poised to further erode the value of the U.S. currency. And if Trump continues to criticize the FOMC and attempts to fire every official who doesn't want to cut rates, the dollar will continue to drop. The shutdown is merely the cherry on a three-tiered cake—each layer pulling the dollar lower in the coming years. One of the many cherries, to be sure, since other, less prominent factors are also gnawing away at demand for the greenback. Among them: the labor market, business activity, and the unemployment rate—all of which are slated for release this week. But due to the government shutdown, this data might never see the light of day. Investors would be justified in interpreting this uncertainty as yet another reason to sell the U.S. dollar. Markets hate uncertainty—and during Trump's presidency, uncertainty is arguably the hallmark of the administration. Now imagine a situation where even key economic data stops coming out. How would markets, or even the Fed, gauge the state of the U.S. economy—especially the labor market, which is critical for shaping FOMC policy? In my view, traders may prefer to err on the side of caution and sell off the dollar until Trump finds common ground with the Democrats. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Since everything Trump does is "Great," the shutdown will likely be Great as well — albeit with a negative side. This time, Trump has decided not to simply send federal workers home while he and his team attempt to negotiate with the Democrats. Instead, he's opted for a more dramatic move: to fire government employees — and blame the Democrats for it. It may look and sound absurd, but let's not forget that Trump is a gambler. And gamblers love to bluff. I believe this is just that — a bluff — and no one is actually going to be fired. However, Trump will play this card as a trump (no pun intended) in his standoff with the Democrats. Without a doubt, he will announce loudly to the nation that he is working tirelessly toward a Great Future for America, while the Democrats are putting up roadblocks by refusing to approve the 2026 budget along with the passage of "one big and beautiful law." It's worth remembering that this very law includes major cuts to healthcare and welfare programs for the economically disadvantaged. If the shutdown begins tomorrow, Trump won't miss the opportunity to proclaim that he was "forced" to fire government employees — and to blame the Democrats for it. Yesterday, an emergency meeting was held between Congress and the White House to reach an agreement on at least temporary government funding through November 21. Unsurprisingly, the parties failed to reach a consensus. But frankly, that's no surprise. Just recall all of Trump's ultimatums to various nations around the world! Trump doesn't enter negotiations — he issues demands that the other side is expected to comply with. So any talks with Trump are hardly negotiations in the traditional sense of the word. The Republicans wanted an unconditional extension of government funding, intending to discuss healthcare and social welfare programs only afterward. The Democrats rightly saw a trap in this "fairy-tale offer": once funding is secured, Trump would no longer be incentivized to consider the Democrats' demands. Let's also be clear — a shutdown is not just a "national vacation." It is another direct blow to the economy. And while the U.S. economy grew by a record 3.8% in the second quarter, many economists are skeptical of this growth. Depending on its duration, a shutdown could shave off several tenths of a percentage point from U.S. GDP growth. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six years. Shutdowns in the U.S. are hardly unusual — there have been around 20 over the last 50 years. Every few years, Democrats and Republicans fail to find common ground. But this particular case is unique. I believe Trump is in a hurry. Why and where he's rushing to are questions worth considering thoroughly. In fact, I'd go a step further and ask: why does Trump so desperately want a Nobel Peace Prize — something he himself makes no secret of? Why does he want to present himself as the world's chief peacemaker, and why has he started a "global restructuring" of the international order? In my view, Trump wants to leave a legacy. The man in the White House realizes that this term may be his last. By the time he is expected to leave office, Trump will be 82 years old. Of course, with good health, you can run a country up to age 100, but Trump is a realist — even if it's not always obvious from his actions. He's criticized Biden for being too old, but in three years, Trump himself will be the same age Biden was when Trump made those comments. I believe Trump is racing against time because he realizes his own is running out. He's declared himself the greatest president in U.S. history and wants to stand alongside Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. That's why he's pushing for record-breaking growth in the U.S. economy at any cost. That's why he wants to end as many wars as possible. That's why he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, his own Taj Mahal, his own Pyramid of Khufu in the White House backyard, and self-funded statues in his golf clubs. If this isn't preparation for retirement with a sense of accomplishment, I don't know what is. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com