Redator

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 149.56 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the entire downward move. The Japanese yen surged sharply against the US dollar at the end of last week after news that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by only 0.2%, entirely in line with economists' forecasts. Although expected, this release triggered a chain reaction in the currency markets. Investors interpreted it as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adjust its policy course as early as October this year. The dollar, which had previously been supported by expectations of aggressive monetary tightening, lost part of its appeal. The fact that actual data matched forecasts reduces the need for a wait-and-see stance, making US assets less attractive to foreign investors. In the near term, the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair will depend on several key factors. First, upcoming economic data from the US and Japan will help assess the relative strength of both economies. Second, the rhetoric of central bank officials can shape market expectations. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 149.00 (green line on the chart), targeting 149.39 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.39, I intend to exit long positions and immediately open shorts on a reversal (expecting a 30–35-pip move in the opposite direction). It is best to buy the pair during pullbacks and deeper corrections in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.74 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 149.00 and 149.39 can then be expected.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 148.74 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.44, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open longs on a reversal (expecting a 20–25-pip move in the opposite direction). It is preferable to sell from higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.00 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 148.74 and 148.44 can then be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3383 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and skipped the pair's small upward move. The pound reacted positively against the dollar on news that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by only 0.2%, in line with economists' forecasts. This modest increase, predicted by analysts, served as a signal of a possible further easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market interpreted this as a sign of a softer stance by the central bank in the future, which immediately weighed on the dollar. The British pound, in turn, took advantage of the weakness of the US currency. Today will bring the release of data on mortgage approvals in the United Kingdom, net lending to individuals, and changes in the M4 money supply. These indicators are typically regarded as barometers of the British economy's health. An increase in mortgage approvals often reflects optimism in the housing market and households' willingness to take on long-term debt obligations. Net lending to individuals highlights household borrowing activity. Rising loan volumes may indicate stronger consumer demand, but they also suggest a growing debt burden. Changes in M4 money supply offer insight into the overall liquidity of the economy. Growth in M4 may indicate increasing inflationary pressure, while a decline could signal slowing economic growth. Investors will carefully analyze these data to assess the current condition and potential future trajectory of the UK economy. If the readings come in above forecasts, the pound may strengthen. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could push the British currency lower. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3446 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3480 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3480, I intend to exit long positions and immediately open shorts on a reversal (expecting a 30–35-pip move in the opposite direction). A continuation of the bullish trend after strong data may justify pound growth today. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3427 level, if the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone at that time. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3446 and 1.3480 could then be expected.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3427 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3396, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open longs on a reversal (expecting a 20–25-pip correction in the opposite direction). Pound sellers could step in at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3446 level, if the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone at that time. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward, with targets at 1.3427 and 1.3396. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1689 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of this price coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario #2 for selling to play out, although a major decline in the pair did not materialize. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the US matched economists' forecasts, indicating moderate price pressure. This event served as a catalyst for a reassessment of risks and opportunities in global financial markets. The US dollar, which had shown relative resilience in recent days, came under notable pressure, especially against the euro. Investors, accustomed to expecting aggressive Federal Reserve policy, are now forced to consider the likelihood of further interest rate cuts. The PCE index aligning with forecasts is interpreted as an argument in favor of a more cautious approach by the central bank. This, in turn, reduces the attractiveness of US assets for foreign investors, initiating a capital outflow toward regions with higher potential returns. Today, in the first half of the day, there are no economic reports from the eurozone, and only a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is expected. In an information vacuum, any statement from such an influential figure takes on special significance and may act as a potential catalyst for market movement. Nagel's rhetoric, his assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone, and his forecasts for the near future will undoubtedly be closely analyzed. Investors will look for any signals shedding light on the ECB's plans for supporting economic growth. Particular attention will be paid to comments regarding interest rate prospects. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at the 1.1735 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1760. At 1.1760, I plan to exit the market and open a short position on a reversal, aiming for a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. A euro rise can only be expected following a firm stance from ECB representatives. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move upward from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1721 level, if the MACD is in the oversold zone at that time. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1735 and 1.1760 can be expected.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1721 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1695, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a long position on a reversal (expecting a 20–25-pip correction in the opposite direction). Selling pressure on the pair will return if weak data emerges. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1735 level and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward, with targets at 1.1721 and 1.1695. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin rose sharply during today's Asian session, reaching $112,300, after previously trading near $109,000. Ethereum also gained significantly, climbing back to the $4,000 level, which had been broken late last week. Meanwhile, Eric Trump, son of the U.S. president, recently stated that the fourth quarter of 2025 will be incredible for BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market, citing seasonality and similar factors. According to him, the future of crypto looks bright thanks to QE, an expanding money supply, regulatory progress, and the actions of the White House administration. While the impact of political statements on the cryptocurrency market is hard to overestimate, figures like Eric Trump, whose words are widely quoted in the media, are capable of creating waves of interest and speculation around digital assets. His optimistic forecast for Q4 2025, based on a mix of seasonal and macroeconomic factors, will certainly resonate with some investors. However, it is worth noting that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to a wide range of influences. The QE, monetary expansion, and regulatory progress mentioned by Eric Trump are only part of a much larger equation. Institutional sentiment, technological innovation, competition between cryptocurrencies, and global economic and political events also play a crucial role. Therefore, despite optimistic forecasts, traders should remain vigilant and conduct their own analysis before making investment decisions. Eric Trump's words may serve as an additional factor, but not the sole reason for entering the market. Cryptocurrency is complex—but exciting! Regarding the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on major pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting the bullish medium-term trend to remain intact. Below are the short-term trading scenarios. BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario 1: Buy Bitcoin at $112,100 with a target of $113,100. At $113,100, exit longs and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario 2: Buy from support at $111,400, provided there is no reaction to a downward breakout, targeting $112,100 and $113,100.Sell ScenarioScenario 1: Sell Bitcoin at $111,400 with a target of $110,300. At $110,300, exit shorts and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario 2: Sell from resistance at $112,100, if the breakout fails, targeting $111,400 and $110,300. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario 1: Buy Ethereum at $4127 with a target of $4181. At $4181, exit longs and immediately sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario 2: Buy from support at $4086, provided there is no reaction to a downward breakout, targeting $4127 and $4181.Sell ScenarioScenario 1: Sell Ethereum at $4086 with a target of $4027. At $4027, exit shorts and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario 2: Sell from resistance at $4127, if the breakout fails, targeting $4086 and $4027.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

After rallying above $0.3 at the start of September, the Dogecoin price has faced significant resistance since then, leading to an over 28% decrease in price. By Sunday, though, the Dogecoin price had begun to rebound, suggesting that there would be a rise in momentum, especially among buyers. This now puts the meme coin at a significant level, as there is the potential of the price bouncing off the current demand zone, but with bears still making a bid, the tug-of-war continues. What A Bounce From The Demand Zone Means Presently, the most critical support for the Dogecoin price lies at the $0.229 level, as outlined by crypto analyst Lingrid, which the cryptocurrency has managed to hold over the weekend. This support level serves as confirmation that the Dogecoin price could continue its uptrend much farther than it did back in early September. The analyst also outlines a bullish formation on the chart, which is a completed triangle breakout pattern. The completion of the bullish pattern is what had led to the initial bullish impulse before the price began to correct downward again. Following the correction, the Dogecoin price was observed to be testing the lower boundary of the triangle trading range. However, with the price still holding above the critical support level, it could see a sustained break from here. The meme coin has already seen a recovery coming out of the weekend, suggesting that the $0.22 psychological level would hold completely through the uncertain market headwinds. Now, if the Dogecoin price is still able to hold this psychological level, then it could be the signal that crypto investors are buying heavily into the altcoin. In the case of heavy buying, it could provide the needed push from the current demand level above $0.21. A leg-up from here would push it toward $0.25, where the next major resistance level lies for the digital asset. This makes $0.22 a very important level as it is the target for the bears to break through. This is because if the bears are able to push the price back down toward $0.22 and cause it to fall further, then the next target lies low at $0.18810. This is the rebound level with demand, thus the price would have to get here before the can bounce again. The crypto analyst also explains that the current triangle pattern could fail its bullish impulse if the Dogecoin price fails to reclaim higher ground. Also, there is the possibility that the Bitcoin price could crash, taking the crypto market down with it and pushing the Dogecoin price toward further decline.

Asian markets start the week on a positive note Most Asian stock exchanges moved higher on Monday, while the US dollar weakened. Investors are closely watching developments in Washington, where a potential government shutdown could delay the release of September's employment report and other key economic data. Political talks in Washington President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders from both parties on Monday in a bid to secure continued government funding. Without an agreement, a partial shutdown may begin midweek, coinciding with the introduction of new US tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products. Seasonal momentum supports equities Analysts highlight that the fourth quarter is historically favorable for equities. The S&P 500 has posted gains in nearly three out of every four fourth quarters. Early trading showed S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rising 0.3% after last week's mild decline. In Europe, futures on the EUROSTOXX 50, FTSE, and DAX each advanced by about 0.3%. Japan slips, Korea rallies Japan's Nikkei stood out as a laggard, shedding 0.8%. Still, the index remains roughly 5% higher for September. Investors are awaiting the results of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote, which will determine the next prime minister and set the course for fiscal and monetary policy. In contrast, South Korea's KOSPI jumped 1.3%, bringing its monthly gain to 7.6%. The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan rose 0.4%, closing the month nearly 4% higher. Chinese stocks advance ahead of Golden Week China's blue-chip CSI300 index gained 0.7% on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of Golden Week holidays, which begin on Wednesday. Australia's central bank in focus The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to meet on Tuesday. Economists widely expect the cash rate to remain at 3.65%, following three cuts earlier this year. Dollar retreats on currency markets The US dollar index slipped 0.2% to 97.952 after being buoyed last week by upbeat economic data. The euro edged higher to 1.1726 dollars, staying in the lower half of its recent range between 1.1646 and 1.1918. Against the yen, the dollar weakened 0.4% to 148.92, reversing part of last week's 1% rise from a September low near 145.50. Gold reaches new record On commodities markets, gold extended its rally, hitting a fresh all-time high of 3,798 dollars per ounce. Oil prices under pressure Crude prices declined after oil flows resumed through a pipeline from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years. Traders are also awaiting Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to approve an additional production hike of at least 137,000 barrels per day. Brent futures dropped 0.8% to 69.73 dollars a barrel, while US WTI crude slipped 0.7% to 65.27 dollars. Indian stocks rebound at the week's start Following the steepest weekly loss in nearly seven months, Indian equities opened higher on Monday, with energy and oil and gas shares leading the gains. Benchmarks edge up By 10:02 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index was up 0.43% at 24,761.5 points, while the BSE Sensex climbed 0.39% to 80,745.23 points. Last week's drag Both benchmarks had slumped 2.7% last week, logging six straight sessions of declines. Investor sentiment was hurt by higher fees for US H-1B visas and increased tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals, prompting foreign capital outflows. Energy and oil and gas lead the way The energy sector rose 1.2%, while oil and gas stocks advanced 1.5%. Gains were fueled by BPCL and HPCL shares after brokerage reports highlighted stable fuel prices and positive expectations for market capitalization growth. Oil India surges on gas discovery Oil India shares jumped 2.2% after the company announced the discovery of natural gas in a shallow-water exploration block off the Andaman coast. Small and mid-caps join the rally Stocks of smaller and mid-sized companies also participated in the rebound, each rising about 0.7%. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar quickly lost ground against risk assets at the end of last week, with clear reasons for this shift. Data showed that the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index matched economists' forecasts, indicating moderate price pressures in the U.S. This sharply weakened the dollar's position. Traders interpreted it as a signal that the Federal Reserve can continue cutting interest rates without major risks, stimulating the economy and supporting the labor market. As a result, U.S. assets became less attractive, triggering capital outflows. The euro, the British pound, and other risk-sensitive assets, by contrast, strengthened on expectations that their central bank would maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates. Today, the first half of the session brings a scheduled speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. His remarks on future monetary policy could strengthen the euro against the dollar. Markets closely monitor every word from leading central bankers, and Nagel's speech is no exception. In the current situation, where the outlook for further European Central Bank actions remains uncertain, any hints of the end of the rate-cutting cycle could trigger a wave of euro buying. In the U.K., data on mortgage approvals, net lending to individuals, and changes in the M4 money supply will be published. These indicators, traditionally viewed as signals of the U.K. economy's health, could significantly influence trader sentiment and, in turn, the pound's exchange rate. Mortgage approvals reflect housing market dynamics. Growth in approvals typically signals positive sentiment and the willingness of households to take on long-term credit.Net lending to individuals shows household credit activity.M4 money supply growth indicates overall liquidity conditions. A rising M4 may indicate increased inflationary pressures, which would be supportive for the pound.If the data aligns with expectations, the best approach is to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly deviates from forecasts, a Momentum strategy is preferable. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuying on a breakout above 1.1740 may lead to growth toward 1.1760 and 1.1786. Selling on a breakout below 1.1715 may lead to a decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1640. GBP/USDBuying on a breakout above 1.3450 may lead to growth toward 1.3470 and 1.3499. Selling on a breakout below 1.3430 may lead to a decline toward 1.3405 and 1.3370. USD/JPYBuying on a breakout above 149.01 may lead to growth toward 149.32 and 149.64. Selling on a breakout below 148.80 may lead to a decline toward 148.60 and 148.30. Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDSelling will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.1740 with a return below this level. Buying will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.1713 with a return above this level. GBP/USDSelling will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.3448 with a return below this level. Buying will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.3409 with a return above this level. AUD/USDSelling will be considered after a failed breakout above 0.6582 with a return below this level. Buying will be considered after a failed breakout below 0.6545 with a return above this level. USD/CADSelling will be considered after a failed breakout above 1.3938 with a return below this level. Buying will be considered after a failed breakout below 1.3911 with a return above this level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No significant macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Both the euro and the pound are recovering after declines seen over the past one and a half to two weeks. We believe the macroeconomic and fundamental background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we expect the bearish trend in both currency pairs to come to an end, with European currencies likely resuming their upward movement. Fundamental Events Analysis: Today's calendar is full of speeches rather than data. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank representatives Cipollone, Kazaks, Muller, Schnabel, and Chief Economist Philip Lane are scheduled to speak. In our view, markets currently have no questions for the ECB: the easing cycle is complete, and with inflation accelerating in the Eurozone, further rate cuts are unlikely. As for the Federal Reserve, there are slightly more uncertainties, but they remain limited. The Fed has made it clear that all future rate decisions will depend on macroeconomic data. If additional easing becomes necessary (due to labor market weakness), it will be implemented. If not, the Fed is likely to pause again in light of rising U.S. inflation. Thus, meaningful new insights from ECB and Fed officials should only be expected once fresh labor market, unemployment, and inflation reports are released. General Conclusions:On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction due to the absence of important macroeconomic data. The pound sterling has already ended its bearish phase, and the euro is likely to follow a similar path. For EUR/USD, the 1.1737–1.1745 area remains key for intraday trading.For GBP/USD, the 1.3413–1.3421 area has already been breached, making fresh long positions toward 1.3466–1.3475 relevant at the current stage.Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair began an upward move, and by Monday night, it had already broken through the local descending trendline. Thus, the bearish trend has been canceled. Recall that over the past week and a half, the pound sterling was caught in a vortex of negative developments, which triggered its decline — a scenario many traders did not expect. However, the global fundamental backdrop for GBP/USD remains unchanged, and therefore, we do not anticipate a further medium-term decline of the British currency. On Friday, the U.S. dollar came under pressure after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index once again showed a decline — a trend that has persisted for several months. Meanwhile, the pound extended its recovery into Monday. It is worth recalling that just a few days ago, Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on imports, including medicines, furniture, and trucks. The trade war is not only continuing but also expanding, and the market reacts sharply to every new round of tariffs or sanctions. As a result, pressure continues to mount on the U.S. dollar. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, a strong buy signal was formed during the Asian session on Friday. The price rebounded from the 1.3329–1.3331 area, and by the start of the European session, it had moved only about 10 pips away from the signal level. This gave novice traders a clear opportunity to open long positions. During the U.S. session, the price reached the nearest target at 1.3413–1.3421, generating at least 60 points of profit. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has completed its bearish phase. As mentioned earlier, we see no grounds for prolonged dollar strength, so in the medium term, we expect the pair to continue moving north. Recent events in both the U.K. and the U.S. did temporarily support the dollar, and its rise was justified. Still, the broader fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the greenback. On Monday, GBP/USD may extend its upward move, as the downtrend is already over. The price has broken through the 1.3413–1.3421 area, providing traders with an opportunity to open new long positions. The next target lies at 1.3466–1.3475. On the 5-minute chart, relevant intraday levels are: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. Since Monday's calendar in both the U.K. and the U.S. contains no major events, volatility will likely remain subdued. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair began a natural upward movement. Over the past week, we observed another technical correction, as the euro had no fundamental reasons for a significant decline. The results of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could have been interpreted in different ways — and that's precisely what the market did. Speeches from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde also did not materially alter the situation and did not indicate a shift in central bank sentiment. The only support for the dollar came from the U.S. Q2 GDP report. On Friday, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index once again showed a disappointing result, which partly helped traders make the right decision. Later, Donald Trump introduced a new package of tariffs. As a result, the U.S. dollar resumed its decline. We believe the uptrend on the daily timeframe will soon resume, as the dollar still lacks any medium-term drivers for growth. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Friday. The price twice rebounded from the 1.1655–1.1666 area, triggering an upward move. Novice traders could have entered long positions on either of these signals, as they essentially duplicated each other. By Friday evening, the trade could be closed in profit or protected with a Stop Loss at breakeven before the weekend. During Monday's Asian session, the nearest target at 1.1737 was reached. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has entered a new corrective phase globally, supported by the U.S. Q2 GDP report. However, the overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, so we still do not expect strong, sustained growth of the greenback. From our perspective, the dollar may continue to rely solely on technical corrections, and that is precisely what we are currently seeing. On Monday, the pair will likely move based on technical factors. The 1.1737–1.1745 area is key: a rebound from it would allow for short positions, while a breakout would open the way for new longs. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1737–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Monday, the macro calendars in both the Eurozone and the U.S. are essentially empty, aside from a series of speeches from ECB and Fed representatives. However, at this stage, there are not many open questions regarding the monetary policy stance of either central bank. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Crude Oil] – [Monday, September 29, 2025] Although the RSI is in the bearish neutral area, but with EMA (50 and EMA (200) position which still intersecting the Golden Cross #CL today still have the potential to strengthen. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 67.15 2. Resistance. 1 : 66.17 3. Pivot : 65.41 4. Support. 1 : 64.43 5. Support. 2 : 63.67 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price maintains the #CL strengthening until it breaks out and closes above 65.41, it has the potential to continue strengthening to 66.17. Momentum Extension Bias: If 66.17 is successfully broken and closes above it, it has the potential to move to 67.15. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision Upside bias weakens when the #CL weakens until it breaks down and closes below 63.67. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 65.22 EMA(200): 64.42 RSI(14) : 48.27 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there is only one economic data release from the United States: Pending Home Sales m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Monday, September 29, 2025] Although the two EMAs are still crossing the Golden Cross, but the RSI's position in the Extreme Bearish area has the potential to weaken #USDX today towards its nearest support levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.65 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.40 3. Pivot : 98.25 4. Support. 1 : 98.00 5. Support. 2 : 97.85 Tactical Scenario Pressure Vulnerable Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.00, it has the potential to continue weakening to 97.85. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.85 is successfully broken and closes below it, the USDX has the potential to weaken again to 97.60. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision Downside bias is maintained if the USDX strengthens and breaks through and closes above 98.65. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 98.17 EMA(200): 97.87 RSI(14) : 25.73 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there is only one economic data release from the United States: Pending Home Sales m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana started a fresh decline below the $225 zone. SOL price is now attempting to recover from $192 and faces hurdles near $215. SOL price started a fresh decline below $225 and $220 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $200 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another decline if it stays below $215 and $220. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to stay above $220 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL traded below the $212 and $205 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The bears even pushed the price below $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at $191 and the price recently started a recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $242 swing high to the $191 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $200 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. Solana is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there are more gains, the price could face resistance near the $212 level. The next major resistance is near the $215 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $242 swing high to the $191 low. The main resistance could be $220. A successful close above the $220 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $230. Any more gains might send the price toward the $242 level. Another Decline In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $215 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $202 zone. The first major support is near the $200 level. A break below the $200 level might send the price toward the $192 support zone. If there is a close below the $192 support, the price could decline toward the $180 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $202 and $200. Major Resistance Levels – $215 and $220.

Gold is trading around 3,796, above the 21SMA and above the 8/8 Murray level. Gold could continue its rise in the coming hours and could reach the top of the uptrend channel around 3,840 or reach +1/8 Murray level around 3,828. At the opening of this week's session, gold left a gap around 3,762. It could reach this level and cover the gap in the coming days. If gold falls below these price levels, we could expect it to find strong support around the 8/8 Murray level, located at 3,750. This level is key, so a strong technical rebound could occur around this area, which could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions. On the other hand, if gold continues its rise and reaches the resistance zone of 3,830, it will be seen as a good point to sell, since gold is showing overbought levels on the daily chart. The H4 chart shows a positive bias for gold. So, any pullback in the coming days, as long as the instrument trades above the 8/8 Murray level, will be seen as a signal to continue buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1728, rebounding after reaching a low of 1.1646 on Friday. The euro is currently above the 200 EMA and above the 8/8 Murray, which could favor a recovery in the coming hours or even days. The eagle indicator has reached the oversold zone, so we believe the euro could attempt to reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 in the coming days and even the key level of 1.1900. Conversely, if the euro falls below 1.1714, we can expect a continuation of the bearish cycle. The instrument could reach 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 and even the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1540. A breakout of the downtrend channel formed since September 15 could trigger a new bullish movement for the euro. Thus, we can expect EUR/USD to reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962 in the short term. The key level to watch is 1.1700. Above this area, we will look for opportunities to open long positions, but below this area, we will look for opportunities to sell, with a target at the psychological level of 1.1500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin, after forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, broke sharply above the 3/8 Murray level and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) located at 109,747. Above this area, Bitcoin rose sharply to reach the 4/8 Murray level around 112,500. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction. Therefore, a rebound around the psychological level of $110,000 could be seen as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin, with short-term targets located around the 200 EMA at 113,500 and even 115,625. Conversely, a sharp break below the 21SMA and a consolidation below the 3/8 Murray level could lead Bitcoin to fall to the 2/8 Murray level located at 106.250. The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal for Bitcoin. So, any pullback as long as the price trades above the 3/8 Murray level will be seen as an opportunity to open buy positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.820 zone. The price now faces a couple of key hurdles near $2.880 and $2.920. XRP price is slowly moving higher above the $2.80 support zone. The price is now trading above $2.80 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2.80 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.920. XRP Price Dips Eyes Upside Break XRP price found support near $2.70 and recently started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.780 and $2.80 resistance levels. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.70 low. However, the price is now facing hurdles near $2.88. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2.80 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $2.820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.88 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.70 low. The first major resistance is near the $2.920 level. A clear move above the $2.920 resistance might send the price toward the $2.9880 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.020 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.050. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $2.880 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.820 level. The next major support is near the $2.80 level and the trend line. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.80 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.720. The next major support sits near the $2.70 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.80 and $2.720. Major Resistance Levels – $2.880 and $2.920.

EUR/USD The euro looked almost hopeless on Thursday, September 25, but found support from the renewed strength of the stock and commodity markets. The S&P 500 added 0.59% on Friday, gold rose 1.00%, oil increased by 0.04%, copper rose 0.29%, and the euro itself gained 34 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price moved above the MACD line resistance on the daily timeframe, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. Once the price consolidates above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator holds in positive territory, the euro will open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1914. This week, moderately optimistic U.S. industrial sector data (according to forecasts) may support risk appetite through Friday. On Friday, labor market data will be released, with the Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 51,000 versus 22,000 in August. The challenge lies in how investors will interpret such a figure. On the four-hour chart, the first resistance level for the price is the MACD line, located around 1.1775. Only after consolidating above it can the 1.1914 target be considered actionable rather than hypothetical. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory, and the ongoing correction may develop into a local trend toward this target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD The British pound capitalized on the general weakness of the dollar amid increased risk appetite in the stock market, repeating the pattern from September 3 by returning above the 1.3364 level (as shown in the rectangle on the daily chart). The pound would clearly like to reach the target resistance at 1.3525, but it feels somewhat uncertain near the MACD line, as seen on September 9–11 and 23. Therefore, only consolidation above this line, above 1.3476, may give the pound a chance to hold above 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator remains cautious, and while it is in negative territory, the pound's growth may stay unstable. If Friday's U.S. September labor market data comes out weak, further growth toward 1.3631 may be expected. On the four-hour chart, technical convergence has taken shape in its traditional form. The Marlin oscillator has settled in positive territory. The price now faces the significant task of overcoming the 1.3476–1.3525 range. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD The Australian dollar failed to break through the support of the daily balance indicator line on September 25 and 26. It is possible that the strength of the "bulls" will now push the price above the already reached MACD line. However, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory. A decisive breakout may occur tomorrow. If successful (with consolidation above the MACD line), the target at 0.6668 will open. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision. The probability of holding the rate is estimated at 96.4%, but market participants expect a shift in the accompanying statement's tone toward hawkishness due to rising inflation. This gives AUD/USD growth potential. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has consolidated in the growth zone. The nearest target on the MACD line, at 0.6614, is open. For the advance toward 0.6668 to continue, the price must consolidate above this line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $4,050. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,170 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $3,820 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,170 and $4,200. Ethereum Price Recovers Ethereum price remained supported above the $3,820 level and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to recover above the $3,880 and $4,000 resistance levels. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,150 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,170 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,200 level. A clear move above the $4,200 resistance might send the price toward the $4,250 resistance. An upside break above the $4,250 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,320 resistance zone or even $4,350 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,050 level. The first major support sits near the $4,000 zone. A clear move below the $4,000 support might push the price toward the $3,920 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,880 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,820. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,050 Major Resistance Level – $4,200

Bitcoin price found support near $108,680 and started a recovery wave. BTC is trading above $111,000 and facing hurdles near $112,500. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $110,500 zone. The price is trading above $110,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $109,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Recovery Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $108,500 zone and started a recovery wave. BTC settled above the $109,500 resistance zone to start the current move. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $113,940 swing high to the $108,680 low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $109,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls even pushed the price above $112,000 before the bears appeared. Bitcoin is now trading above $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $112,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $112,500 level and another trend line. The next resistance could be $113,700 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $113,940 swing high to the $108,680 low. A close above the $112,700 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,00. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,300 level. The first major support is near the $110,500 level. The next support is now near the $109,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $111,300, followed by $110,500. Major Resistance Levels – $112,500 and $112,700.

Over the past two weeks, the GBP/USD pair has lost significant value. It cannot be said that the decline in the British pound was unjustified, but at the same time, it cannot be called "fully logical" either. Simply put, the market used almost all recent news against the pound. However, due to this decline, the technical picture has changed only on the lower timeframes. On the higher ones, we are still dealing with the long-term upward trend of 2025. This week, the U.S. dollar will try to defend its hard-won positions. Yet the overall picture again looks unfavorable for the greenback. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture, signaling a continuation of the trade war and a new escalation of global trade tensions. This alone is already a significant factor for the market to end the "dollar buying spree" of the last two weeks. Additionally, key U.S. data on the labor market, unemployment, and business activity will be released. Recall that these reports, alongside inflation figures, currently define the course of monetary policy. Paradoxically, the worse the U.S. labor market performs, the better for the dollar. A fifth consecutive month of weak NonFarm Payrolls will significantly raise the likelihood of two more Fed rate cuts before year-end—an outcome considered favorable for the dollar. Still, even in that case, we would not expect a sustained "dollar trend." The U.S. currency may strengthen by another 100–200 points, but it should be understood that we are most likely only at the very early stage of a "counter-dollar trend." The dollar had been rising for 16–17 years since 2007. With Trump's return to office, the global trend may have shifted, and the dollar could now be in decline for the next 8–10 years. Therefore, an additional 100–200–300 points of appreciation will not change its long-term outlook. We should also note the upcoming U.S. unemployment and ISM reports. The American economy posted strong GDP growth in the second quarter, but the labor market is weakening, unemployment is rising, inflation is climbing, job openings are falling, and business activity in the manufacturing sector is declining. As we can see, the only positive news is the GDP growth. Therefore, if the next batch of U.S. macroeconomic data again comes in weak, the dollar may resume its decline regardless of the high odds of two more Fed rate cuts. By the way, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September's Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to add only "39,000" new jobs. Recall that a normal level for this indicator is 150–200,000, with an acceptable minimum of around 100,000. Thus, the report could show another discouraging result for the fifth straight month. From a technical perspective, a consolidation above the moving average is required to anticipate a new upward leg. The CCI indicator is already signaling a likely rise. The average volatility of GBP/USD over the last five trading days is 89 pips, which is considered "normal" for this pair. On Monday, September 29, we therefore expect movement within the 1.3311–1.3489 range. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointing upward, clearly indicating a bullish trend. The CCI has once again entered oversold territory, which again warns of a possible resumption of the uptrend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3367 S2 – 1.3306 S3 – 1.3245 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3428 R2 – 1.3489 R3 – 1.3550 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is once again in correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, so no sustained appreciation is expected. Accordingly, long positions targeting 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain much more relevant if the price holds above the moving average. Meanwhile, if the price trades below the moving average, small shorts toward 1.3311 and 1.3306 can be considered on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. currency exhibits corrections (as it does now), but for a sustained trend reversal, it would require concrete signs of an end to the trade war or other major positive factors. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in May. Despite the dollar strengthening toward 1.17, virtually no major bank is betting on further dollar appreciation. There are simply no grounds for such expectations, a point we have repeated for months. Of course, market makers can still buy the U.S. currency, potentially causing further strengthening. However, since we cannot know their plans, our analysis is based strictly on fundamentals and macroeconomics. The euro's fundamental backdrop remains unchanged. There is no chance that the European Central Bank will cut rates again in the near term. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand—despite Jerome Powell's contradictory rhetoric—appears ready for two more rate cuts in 2025. In addition, Donald Trump recently resurfaced with fresh tariffs last week. There are no signs of an end to the global trade war, which has been one of the main drivers behind the dollar's decline in 2025. This week, there will be several euro-specific developments worth watching. First, a series of ECB speakers will likely emphasize the lack of need for rate cuts and highlight the risks of accelerating inflation. Second, inflation reports for September will be published, potentially confirming the worst fears. CPI in Germany is expected to rise to 2.3%, with a similar outcome for the eurozone as a whole. These reports could provide fresh support to the euro. It is worth noting that the ECB has not ruled out the possibility of raising rates if the circumstances require it. If inflation continues rising for several months, we cannot exclude a tightening scenario. Such a move would undoubtedly strengthen the euro further. In this article, we deliberately set aside the U.S. macro background, though it will remain the key market driver. The first week of the new month traditionally includes ISM indices, labor market data, and unemployment figures. These reports will largely determine whether the Fed continues easing. If the labor market starts to recover (which seems unlikely), the odds of two additional rate cuts this year will decline sharply, potentially providing the dollar with temporary support. Still, we view this scenario as having a low probability. The average volatility of EUR/USD over the last five trading days, as of September 27, is 73 pips, classified as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1627 and 1.1773 on Monday. The longer-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming the broader bullish trend. The CCI entered overbought territory last week, triggering a fresh downward correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1597 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1353 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1719 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1963 Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair has entered a new corrective phase, but the overall upward trend remains intact across all timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to face strong headwinds from Donald Trump's policies, which are far from over. The dollar has rallied as much as it could (for an entire month), but it now seems poised for another prolonged decline. If the price is below the moving average, short positions may be considered on a purely technical basis, targeting 1.1627 and 1.1597. If the price trades above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1963, in line with the prevailing trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair recovered significantly, so it is too early to write off the British currency. Over the past week and a half, the pound has gone through a rough patch, but we still believe this weakness will be short-lived. Even when all factors point in one direction, technical corrections are inevitable. Individual reports and events can trigger counter-trend movements, which, on lower timeframes, may appear as independent trends. This is precisely the kind of trend we are observing now on the hourly chart. On Friday, the pound was strongly supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The indicator once again came in below forecasts, triggering a decline in the dollar in the second half of the day. Overall, the pair is currently trading around the trendline and may attempt to break above it on Monday, as the global fundamental background continues to favor the pound. The Kijun-sen line is also nearby, and a breakout above it would allow for expectations of further upward movement toward the Senkou Span B line. On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday, with daily volatility totaling 85 pips. This is neither too high nor too low. The first two sell signals, in the form of rebounds from the 1.3369–1.3377 range, were weak, as the price failed to move even 20 pips in the right direction. Later, the pair broke through this range, after which the pound gained 20 pips. Thus, the first two signals duplicated each other but turned out to be false, while the third allowed a maximum of 20 pips in profit. COT Report COT reports on the British pound indicate that, in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has shifted constantly. The red and blue lines, reflecting net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and mostly remain close to zero. Currently, they are nearly at the same level, indicating an approximately equal number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so the demand from market makers for the pound is not particularly important at this stage. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for an extended period. The Fed will likely continue cutting rates over the next year, which will reduce demand for the dollar. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound experienced a strong appreciation, but this was primarily due to the policies of Donald Trump. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may enter a growth phase, but no one knows when that will happen. Regardless of the pace of net positioning changes for the pound, net positioning on the dollar is still declining—usually at a faster rate. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair began to decline the week before last due to negative fundamentals, and the fall continued last week for the same reason. The dollar still lacks global reasons to strengthen, so we expect the 2025 uptrend to resume in almost all cases. However, on the hourly chart, a breakout above the trendline is required before counting on a new upward trend. For September 29, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3587) and Kijun-sen (1.3429) lines may also generate signals. Stop-loss orders are recommended to be moved to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. On Monday, no major macroeconomic or fundamental events are scheduled in the U.K. or the U.S. Therefore, volatility during the day is expected to remain low. The pound may attempt to continue its recovery. Trading RecommendationsToday, traders may expect further decline if the price remains below the trendline and corresponding sell signals are formed. These could be rebounds from the Kijun-sen line, the 1.3420 level, or a breakout below the 1.3369–1.3377 range. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com