Redator

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No significant macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Both the euro and the pound are recovering after declines seen over the past one and a half to two weeks. We believe the macroeconomic and fundamental background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we expect the bearish trend in both currency pairs to come to an end, with European currencies likely resuming their upward movement. Fundamental Events Analysis: Today's calendar is full of speeches rather than data. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank representatives Cipollone, Kazaks, Muller, Schnabel, and Chief Economist Philip Lane are scheduled to speak. In our view, markets currently have no questions for the ECB: the easing cycle is complete, and with inflation accelerating in the Eurozone, further rate cuts are unlikely. As for the Federal Reserve, there are slightly more uncertainties, but they remain limited. The Fed has made it clear that all future rate decisions will depend on macroeconomic data. If additional easing becomes necessary (due to labor market weakness), it will be implemented. If not, the Fed is likely to pause again in light of rising U.S. inflation. Thus, meaningful new insights from ECB and Fed officials should only be expected once fresh labor market, unemployment, and inflation reports are released. General Conclusions:On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction due to the absence of important macroeconomic data. The pound sterling has already ended its bearish phase, and the euro is likely to follow a similar path. For EUR/USD, the 1.1737–1.1745 area remains key for intraday trading.For GBP/USD, the 1.3413–1.3421 area has already been breached, making fresh long positions toward 1.3466–1.3475 relevant at the current stage.Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair began an upward move, and by Monday night, it had already broken through the local descending trendline. Thus, the bearish trend has been canceled. Recall that over the past week and a half, the pound sterling was caught in a vortex of negative developments, which triggered its decline — a scenario many traders did not expect. However, the global fundamental backdrop for GBP/USD remains unchanged, and therefore, we do not anticipate a further medium-term decline of the British currency. On Friday, the U.S. dollar came under pressure after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index once again showed a decline — a trend that has persisted for several months. Meanwhile, the pound extended its recovery into Monday. It is worth recalling that just a few days ago, Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on imports, including medicines, furniture, and trucks. The trade war is not only continuing but also expanding, and the market reacts sharply to every new round of tariffs or sanctions. As a result, pressure continues to mount on the U.S. dollar. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, a strong buy signal was formed during the Asian session on Friday. The price rebounded from the 1.3329–1.3331 area, and by the start of the European session, it had moved only about 10 pips away from the signal level. This gave novice traders a clear opportunity to open long positions. During the U.S. session, the price reached the nearest target at 1.3413–1.3421, generating at least 60 points of profit. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has completed its bearish phase. As mentioned earlier, we see no grounds for prolonged dollar strength, so in the medium term, we expect the pair to continue moving north. Recent events in both the U.K. and the U.S. did temporarily support the dollar, and its rise was justified. Still, the broader fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the greenback. On Monday, GBP/USD may extend its upward move, as the downtrend is already over. The price has broken through the 1.3413–1.3421 area, providing traders with an opportunity to open new long positions. The next target lies at 1.3466–1.3475. On the 5-minute chart, relevant intraday levels are: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. Since Monday's calendar in both the U.K. and the U.S. contains no major events, volatility will likely remain subdued. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair began a natural upward movement. Over the past week, we observed another technical correction, as the euro had no fundamental reasons for a significant decline. The results of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could have been interpreted in different ways — and that's precisely what the market did. Speeches from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde also did not materially alter the situation and did not indicate a shift in central bank sentiment. The only support for the dollar came from the U.S. Q2 GDP report. On Friday, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index once again showed a disappointing result, which partly helped traders make the right decision. Later, Donald Trump introduced a new package of tariffs. As a result, the U.S. dollar resumed its decline. We believe the uptrend on the daily timeframe will soon resume, as the dollar still lacks any medium-term drivers for growth. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Friday. The price twice rebounded from the 1.1655–1.1666 area, triggering an upward move. Novice traders could have entered long positions on either of these signals, as they essentially duplicated each other. By Friday evening, the trade could be closed in profit or protected with a Stop Loss at breakeven before the weekend. During Monday's Asian session, the nearest target at 1.1737 was reached. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has entered a new corrective phase globally, supported by the U.S. Q2 GDP report. However, the overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, so we still do not expect strong, sustained growth of the greenback. From our perspective, the dollar may continue to rely solely on technical corrections, and that is precisely what we are currently seeing. On Monday, the pair will likely move based on technical factors. The 1.1737–1.1745 area is key: a rebound from it would allow for short positions, while a breakout would open the way for new longs. On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1737–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Monday, the macro calendars in both the Eurozone and the U.S. are essentially empty, aside from a series of speeches from ECB and Fed representatives. However, at this stage, there are not many open questions regarding the monetary policy stance of either central bank. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Crude Oil] – [Monday, September 29, 2025] Although the RSI is in the bearish neutral area, but with EMA (50 and EMA (200) position which still intersecting the Golden Cross #CL today still have the potential to strengthen. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 67.15 2. Resistance. 1 : 66.17 3. Pivot : 65.41 4. Support. 1 : 64.43 5. Support. 2 : 63.67 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price maintains the #CL strengthening until it breaks out and closes above 65.41, it has the potential to continue strengthening to 66.17. Momentum Extension Bias: If 66.17 is successfully broken and closes above it, it has the potential to move to 67.15. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision Upside bias weakens when the #CL weakens until it breaks down and closes below 63.67. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 65.22 EMA(200): 64.42 RSI(14) : 48.27 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there is only one economic data release from the United States: Pending Home Sales m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Monday, September 29, 2025] Although the two EMAs are still crossing the Golden Cross, but the RSI's position in the Extreme Bearish area has the potential to weaken #USDX today towards its nearest support levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.65 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.40 3. Pivot : 98.25 4. Support. 1 : 98.00 5. Support. 2 : 97.85 Tactical Scenario Pressure Vulnerable Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.00, it has the potential to continue weakening to 97.85. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.85 is successfully broken and closes below it, the USDX has the potential to weaken again to 97.60. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision Downside bias is maintained if the USDX strengthens and breaks through and closes above 98.65. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 98.17 EMA(200): 97.87 RSI(14) : 25.73 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight, there is only one economic data release from the United States: Pending Home Sales m/m at 21:00 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Solana started a fresh decline below the $225 zone. SOL price is now attempting to recover from $192 and faces hurdles near $215. SOL price started a fresh decline below $225 and $220 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $200 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another decline if it stays below $215 and $220. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to stay above $220 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL traded below the $212 and $205 support levels to enter a bearish zone. The bears even pushed the price below $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at $191 and the price recently started a recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $242 swing high to the $191 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $200 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. Solana is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there are more gains, the price could face resistance near the $212 level. The next major resistance is near the $215 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $242 swing high to the $191 low. The main resistance could be $220. A successful close above the $220 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $230. Any more gains might send the price toward the $242 level. Another Decline In SOL? If SOL fails to rise above the $215 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $202 zone. The first major support is near the $200 level. A break below the $200 level might send the price toward the $192 support zone. If there is a close below the $192 support, the price could decline toward the $180 support in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $202 and $200. Major Resistance Levels – $215 and $220.

Gold is trading around 3,796, above the 21SMA and above the 8/8 Murray level. Gold could continue its rise in the coming hours and could reach the top of the uptrend channel around 3,840 or reach +1/8 Murray level around 3,828. At the opening of this week's session, gold left a gap around 3,762. It could reach this level and cover the gap in the coming days. If gold falls below these price levels, we could expect it to find strong support around the 8/8 Murray level, located at 3,750. This level is key, so a strong technical rebound could occur around this area, which could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions. On the other hand, if gold continues its rise and reaches the resistance zone of 3,830, it will be seen as a good point to sell, since gold is showing overbought levels on the daily chart. The H4 chart shows a positive bias for gold. So, any pullback in the coming days, as long as the instrument trades above the 8/8 Murray level, will be seen as a signal to continue buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1728, rebounding after reaching a low of 1.1646 on Friday. The euro is currently above the 200 EMA and above the 8/8 Murray, which could favor a recovery in the coming hours or even days. The eagle indicator has reached the oversold zone, so we believe the euro could attempt to reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 in the coming days and even the key level of 1.1900. Conversely, if the euro falls below 1.1714, we can expect a continuation of the bearish cycle. The instrument could reach 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 and even the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1540. A breakout of the downtrend channel formed since September 15 could trigger a new bullish movement for the euro. Thus, we can expect EUR/USD to reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962 in the short term. The key level to watch is 1.1700. Above this area, we will look for opportunities to open long positions, but below this area, we will look for opportunities to sell, with a target at the psychological level of 1.1500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin, after forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, broke sharply above the 3/8 Murray level and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) located at 109,747. Above this area, Bitcoin rose sharply to reach the 4/8 Murray level around 112,500. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction. Therefore, a rebound around the psychological level of $110,000 could be seen as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin, with short-term targets located around the 200 EMA at 113,500 and even 115,625. Conversely, a sharp break below the 21SMA and a consolidation below the 3/8 Murray level could lead Bitcoin to fall to the 2/8 Murray level located at 106.250. The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal for Bitcoin. So, any pullback as long as the price trades above the 3/8 Murray level will be seen as an opportunity to open buy positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.820 zone. The price now faces a couple of key hurdles near $2.880 and $2.920. XRP price is slowly moving higher above the $2.80 support zone. The price is now trading above $2.80 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2.80 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.920. XRP Price Dips Eyes Upside Break XRP price found support near $2.70 and recently started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.780 and $2.80 resistance levels. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.70 low. However, the price is now facing hurdles near $2.88. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2.80 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $2.820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.88 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $2.995 swing high to the $2.70 low. The first major resistance is near the $2.920 level. A clear move above the $2.920 resistance might send the price toward the $2.9880 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.020 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.050. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $2.880 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.820 level. The next major support is near the $2.80 level and the trend line. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.80 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.720. The next major support sits near the $2.70 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.80 and $2.720. Major Resistance Levels – $2.880 and $2.920.

EUR/USD The euro looked almost hopeless on Thursday, September 25, but found support from the renewed strength of the stock and commodity markets. The S&P 500 added 0.59% on Friday, gold rose 1.00%, oil increased by 0.04%, copper rose 0.29%, and the euro itself gained 34 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price moved above the MACD line resistance on the daily timeframe, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. Once the price consolidates above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator holds in positive territory, the euro will open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1914. This week, moderately optimistic U.S. industrial sector data (according to forecasts) may support risk appetite through Friday. On Friday, labor market data will be released, with the Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 51,000 versus 22,000 in August. The challenge lies in how investors will interpret such a figure. On the four-hour chart, the first resistance level for the price is the MACD line, located around 1.1775. Only after consolidating above it can the 1.1914 target be considered actionable rather than hypothetical. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory, and the ongoing correction may develop into a local trend toward this target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD The British pound capitalized on the general weakness of the dollar amid increased risk appetite in the stock market, repeating the pattern from September 3 by returning above the 1.3364 level (as shown in the rectangle on the daily chart). The pound would clearly like to reach the target resistance at 1.3525, but it feels somewhat uncertain near the MACD line, as seen on September 9–11 and 23. Therefore, only consolidation above this line, above 1.3476, may give the pound a chance to hold above 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator remains cautious, and while it is in negative territory, the pound's growth may stay unstable. If Friday's U.S. September labor market data comes out weak, further growth toward 1.3631 may be expected. On the four-hour chart, technical convergence has taken shape in its traditional form. The Marlin oscillator has settled in positive territory. The price now faces the significant task of overcoming the 1.3476–1.3525 range. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD The Australian dollar failed to break through the support of the daily balance indicator line on September 25 and 26. It is possible that the strength of the "bulls" will now push the price above the already reached MACD line. However, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory. A decisive breakout may occur tomorrow. If successful (with consolidation above the MACD line), the target at 0.6668 will open. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision. The probability of holding the rate is estimated at 96.4%, but market participants expect a shift in the accompanying statement's tone toward hawkishness due to rising inflation. This gives AUD/USD growth potential. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has consolidated in the growth zone. The nearest target on the MACD line, at 0.6614, is open. For the advance toward 0.6668 to continue, the price must consolidate above this line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $4,050. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,170 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $3,820 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,170 and $4,200. Ethereum Price Recovers Ethereum price remained supported above the $3,820 level and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to recover above the $3,880 and $4,000 resistance levels. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,150 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,170 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $4,275 swing high to the $3,826 low. The first major resistance is near the $4,200 level. A clear move above the $4,200 resistance might send the price toward the $4,250 resistance. An upside break above the $4,250 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,320 resistance zone or even $4,350 in the near term. Another Decline In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,200 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,050 level. The first major support sits near the $4,000 zone. A clear move below the $4,000 support might push the price toward the $3,920 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,880 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,820. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,050 Major Resistance Level – $4,200

Bitcoin price found support near $108,680 and started a recovery wave. BTC is trading above $111,000 and facing hurdles near $112,500. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $110,500 zone. The price is trading above $110,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $109,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Recovery Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $108,500 zone and started a recovery wave. BTC settled above the $109,500 resistance zone to start the current move. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $113,940 swing high to the $108,680 low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $109,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The bulls even pushed the price above $112,000 before the bears appeared. Bitcoin is now trading above $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $112,400 level. The first key resistance is near the $112,500 level and another trend line. The next resistance could be $113,700 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $113,940 swing high to the $108,680 low. A close above the $112,700 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,00. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,300 level. The first major support is near the $110,500 level. The next support is now near the $109,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $111,300, followed by $110,500. Major Resistance Levels – $112,500 and $112,700.

Over the past two weeks, the GBP/USD pair has lost significant value. It cannot be said that the decline in the British pound was unjustified, but at the same time, it cannot be called "fully logical" either. Simply put, the market used almost all recent news against the pound. However, due to this decline, the technical picture has changed only on the lower timeframes. On the higher ones, we are still dealing with the long-term upward trend of 2025. This week, the U.S. dollar will try to defend its hard-won positions. Yet the overall picture again looks unfavorable for the greenback. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture, signaling a continuation of the trade war and a new escalation of global trade tensions. This alone is already a significant factor for the market to end the "dollar buying spree" of the last two weeks. Additionally, key U.S. data on the labor market, unemployment, and business activity will be released. Recall that these reports, alongside inflation figures, currently define the course of monetary policy. Paradoxically, the worse the U.S. labor market performs, the better for the dollar. A fifth consecutive month of weak NonFarm Payrolls will significantly raise the likelihood of two more Fed rate cuts before year-end—an outcome considered favorable for the dollar. Still, even in that case, we would not expect a sustained "dollar trend." The U.S. currency may strengthen by another 100–200 points, but it should be understood that we are most likely only at the very early stage of a "counter-dollar trend." The dollar had been rising for 16–17 years since 2007. With Trump's return to office, the global trend may have shifted, and the dollar could now be in decline for the next 8–10 years. Therefore, an additional 100–200–300 points of appreciation will not change its long-term outlook. We should also note the upcoming U.S. unemployment and ISM reports. The American economy posted strong GDP growth in the second quarter, but the labor market is weakening, unemployment is rising, inflation is climbing, job openings are falling, and business activity in the manufacturing sector is declining. As we can see, the only positive news is the GDP growth. Therefore, if the next batch of U.S. macroeconomic data again comes in weak, the dollar may resume its decline regardless of the high odds of two more Fed rate cuts. By the way, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September's Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to add only "39,000" new jobs. Recall that a normal level for this indicator is 150–200,000, with an acceptable minimum of around 100,000. Thus, the report could show another discouraging result for the fifth straight month. From a technical perspective, a consolidation above the moving average is required to anticipate a new upward leg. The CCI indicator is already signaling a likely rise. The average volatility of GBP/USD over the last five trading days is 89 pips, which is considered "normal" for this pair. On Monday, September 29, we therefore expect movement within the 1.3311–1.3489 range. The longer-term linear regression channel is pointing upward, clearly indicating a bullish trend. The CCI has once again entered oversold territory, which again warns of a possible resumption of the uptrend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3367 S2 – 1.3306 S3 – 1.3245 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3428 R2 – 1.3489 R3 – 1.3550 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is once again in correction, but its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, so no sustained appreciation is expected. Accordingly, long positions targeting 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain much more relevant if the price holds above the moving average. Meanwhile, if the price trades below the moving average, small shorts toward 1.3311 and 1.3306 can be considered on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. currency exhibits corrections (as it does now), but for a sustained trend reversal, it would require concrete signs of an end to the trade war or other major positive factors. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in May. Despite the dollar strengthening toward 1.17, virtually no major bank is betting on further dollar appreciation. There are simply no grounds for such expectations, a point we have repeated for months. Of course, market makers can still buy the U.S. currency, potentially causing further strengthening. However, since we cannot know their plans, our analysis is based strictly on fundamentals and macroeconomics. The euro's fundamental backdrop remains unchanged. There is no chance that the European Central Bank will cut rates again in the near term. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand—despite Jerome Powell's contradictory rhetoric—appears ready for two more rate cuts in 2025. In addition, Donald Trump recently resurfaced with fresh tariffs last week. There are no signs of an end to the global trade war, which has been one of the main drivers behind the dollar's decline in 2025. This week, there will be several euro-specific developments worth watching. First, a series of ECB speakers will likely emphasize the lack of need for rate cuts and highlight the risks of accelerating inflation. Second, inflation reports for September will be published, potentially confirming the worst fears. CPI in Germany is expected to rise to 2.3%, with a similar outcome for the eurozone as a whole. These reports could provide fresh support to the euro. It is worth noting that the ECB has not ruled out the possibility of raising rates if the circumstances require it. If inflation continues rising for several months, we cannot exclude a tightening scenario. Such a move would undoubtedly strengthen the euro further. In this article, we deliberately set aside the U.S. macro background, though it will remain the key market driver. The first week of the new month traditionally includes ISM indices, labor market data, and unemployment figures. These reports will largely determine whether the Fed continues easing. If the labor market starts to recover (which seems unlikely), the odds of two additional rate cuts this year will decline sharply, potentially providing the dollar with temporary support. Still, we view this scenario as having a low probability. The average volatility of EUR/USD over the last five trading days, as of September 27, is 73 pips, classified as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1627 and 1.1773 on Monday. The longer-term linear regression channel points upward, confirming the broader bullish trend. The CCI entered overbought territory last week, triggering a fresh downward correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1597 S2 – 1.1475 S3 – 1.1353 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1719 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1963 Trading Recommendations:The EUR/USD pair has entered a new corrective phase, but the overall upward trend remains intact across all timeframes. The U.S. dollar continues to face strong headwinds from Donald Trump's policies, which are far from over. The dollar has rallied as much as it could (for an entire month), but it now seems poised for another prolonged decline. If the price is below the moving average, short positions may be considered on a purely technical basis, targeting 1.1627 and 1.1597. If the price trades above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1963, in line with the prevailing trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair recovered significantly, so it is too early to write off the British currency. Over the past week and a half, the pound has gone through a rough patch, but we still believe this weakness will be short-lived. Even when all factors point in one direction, technical corrections are inevitable. Individual reports and events can trigger counter-trend movements, which, on lower timeframes, may appear as independent trends. This is precisely the kind of trend we are observing now on the hourly chart. On Friday, the pound was strongly supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The indicator once again came in below forecasts, triggering a decline in the dollar in the second half of the day. Overall, the pair is currently trading around the trendline and may attempt to break above it on Monday, as the global fundamental background continues to favor the pound. The Kijun-sen line is also nearby, and a breakout above it would allow for expectations of further upward movement toward the Senkou Span B line. On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Friday, with daily volatility totaling 85 pips. This is neither too high nor too low. The first two sell signals, in the form of rebounds from the 1.3369–1.3377 range, were weak, as the price failed to move even 20 pips in the right direction. Later, the pair broke through this range, after which the pound gained 20 pips. Thus, the first two signals duplicated each other but turned out to be false, while the third allowed a maximum of 20 pips in profit. COT Report COT reports on the British pound indicate that, in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has shifted constantly. The red and blue lines, reflecting net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and mostly remain close to zero. Currently, they are nearly at the same level, indicating an approximately equal number of long and short positions. The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so the demand from market makers for the pound is not particularly important at this stage. The trade war is likely to persist in one form or another for an extended period. The Fed will likely continue cutting rates over the next year, which will reduce demand for the dollar. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 long contracts and closed 900 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 4,600 contracts over the week. In 2025, the pound experienced a strong appreciation, but this was primarily due to the policies of Donald Trump. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may enter a growth phase, but no one knows when that will happen. Regardless of the pace of net positioning changes for the pound, net positioning on the dollar is still declining—usually at a faster rate. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair began to decline the week before last due to negative fundamentals, and the fall continued last week for the same reason. The dollar still lacks global reasons to strengthen, so we expect the 2025 uptrend to resume in almost all cases. However, on the hourly chart, a breakout above the trendline is required before counting on a new upward trend. For September 29, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3587) and Kijun-sen (1.3429) lines may also generate signals. Stop-loss orders are recommended to be moved to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. On Monday, no major macroeconomic or fundamental events are scheduled in the U.K. or the U.S. Therefore, volatility during the day is expected to remain low. The pound may attempt to continue its recovery. Trading RecommendationsToday, traders may expect further decline if the price remains below the trendline and corresponding sell signals are formed. These could be rebounds from the Kijun-sen line, the 1.3420 level, or a breakout below the 1.3369–1.3377 range. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD pair experienced an upward movement, which represents a correction within the broader downtrend. The descending trendline clearly indicates the prevailing bearish sentiment among most traders, but we would still not expect a strong dollar rally. It is essential to recognize that over the past week and a half, several factors have indeed supported the U.S. currency; however, all of them are temporary. The global trend remains unchanged, as does the overall fundamental background. Thus, we are witnessing another round of correction, but the dollar still finds it extremely difficult to count on more than that. On Friday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered another speech in the euro area, but it provided no new information to the market. In the U.S., three reports were released, two of which the market ignored. The Core PCE price index stood at 0.2% in August, in line with forecasts. Personal income and consumer spending grew slightly above expectations. Only the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index triggered a minor market reaction, although its result did not deviate significantly from forecasts. Nonetheless, consumer sentiment has been declining since December last year, which "paradoxically" coincides with Donald Trump's return to the White House. On the 5-minute timeframe, two very good trading signals were formed on Friday. The price twice rebounded from the 1.1666 level. On the second attempt, the upward movement finally began, and the euro managed to gain about 25 pips by the end of the day. Volatility on Friday was weak, so there was no reason to expect large profits. COT Report The latest COT report is dated September 16. As the chart above clearly shows, the net position of non-commercial traders had long been bullish, with bears barely gaining the upper hand at the end of 2024 before quickly losing it again. Since Donald Trump assumed office for the second time, the dollar has continued to decline. We cannot say with 100% certainty that this decline will continue, but current global developments strongly suggest that it will. We still do not see any fundamental drivers for strengthening the euro, while numerous factors remain in place that could lead to the dollar's decline. The long-term downtrend remains intact, but what does it matter when the price has been moving in this direction for the past 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may recover, but recent events suggest that such wars will persist in one form or another. The possible loss of Fed independence is another powerful factor weighing on the U.S. currency. The red and blue indicator lines continue to point to a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 2,600. As a result, the net position fell by 3,400 contracts. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is forming a new downward trend, as indicated by a trendline. We still see no grounds for a prolonged dollar rally. On the daily timeframe, the uptrend remains intact, although the dollar's strengthening appears to be weakening. On lower timeframes, the U.S. currency is rising, but it is difficult to predict how long this trend will persist. For September 29, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1790) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1733). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to place the Stop Loss order at breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against potential losses if a signal turns out to be false. On Monday, no important macroeconomic reports are scheduled in either the euro area or the U.S., but a series of speeches by Fed and ECB officials will take place. Fed representatives may draw interest, as it remains unclear how the American regulatorUS central bank will act until the end of the year. Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the euro's recovery may continue. After rebounding from the 1.1666 level, the upward move could extend toward the Kijun-sen line. The trend will start shifting to bullish if the price overcomes the Ichimoku indicator lines and the trendline. For selling opportunities, a rebound from the critical line will be required. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Reports have disclosed that 16 wallets picked up 431,018 Ether between September 25 and 27, spending about $1.73 billion to do so. The buys came through names like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, FalconX and OKX. That scale of accumulation pushed attention back to who is buying the dip, and why larger players seem willing to add exposure while prices wobble. Exchange Balances Fall To 9-Year Low According to Glassnode data, the amount of ETH held on exchanges has plunged from roughly 31 million to about 14.8 million ETH — a drop of 52% from 2016 levels. Many of those coins are likely in staking contracts, cold wallets or institutional custody, and the recent launch of the first Ethereum staking ETF has helped pull more supply off exchanges. Lower exchange balances mean fewer coins ready to be sold instantly on exchanges, which can make price moves sharper when big orders hit the market. ETH Hovers Near $4,000 As Volatility Rises Based on TradingView readings, ETH is trading around $4,011, down roughly 0.33% over the last 24 hours and more than 10% over the past week. The token briefly slipped under $3,980 earlier in the session before climbing back, and it remains below a recent close of $4,034. This two-week pullback has returned ETH to a key $4,000 support area, and short-term swings have become more pronounced as holders reposition. $3,700 Becomes A Line In Sand Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has warned that the $3,700 to $3,800 zone could face heavy pressure. Reports note that if ETH falls below $3,700, many margin positions could be wiped out and spark forced selling that pushes prices lower. With fewer coins on exchanges and concentrated margin exposure, the short-term outlook is more fragile even as longer-term demand indicators look solid. ETF Outflows Show Institutional Mood Can Flip US-listed ETH funds recorded nearly $800 million in outflows this week, their largest redemptions to date. Still, roughly $26 billion sits in Ethereum ETFs, equal to 5.37% of total supply. Those numbers underline how quickly institutional sentiment can change: big inflows can vanish just as fast, and ETF flows now add a new, sizable layer to price dynamics. Lookonchain data also highlighted a prior accumulation of roughly $204 million in ETH, showing similar patterns of large players stepping up during dips. Retail traders appear more cautious for now. But the sequence of big buys from institutional-grade custodians suggests some buyers view dips as buying chances while others choose to wait on the sidelines. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The first week of every month is traditionally the most informative and, as a rule, the most volatile for dollar pairs. October will be no exception. The economic calendar for the coming week is packed with important events, with the release of September Nonfarm Payrolls standing out. After a strong U.S. GDP growth report and a "neutral" PCE index, the NFP release will tip the scales either toward sellers or buyers of EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payrolls will be preceded by other U.S. labor market reports—JOLTs, ADP, and Unemployment Claims—which may also influence the pair, especially if they fall into the green or red zone. Traders should also pay close attention to ISM indices, which are among the most important macroeconomic indicators. Overall, we are in for an eventful week: the EUR/USD pair will once again enter a zone of price turbulence. MondayMonday's economic calendar is almost empty, but several Federal Reserve officials will speak, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (non-voting this year), St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting member), and New York Fed President John Williams (voting member). Markets will be interested in their assessment of the economic outlook following the strong Q2 GDP report (revised from 3.3% to 3.8%) and the core PCE index, which remained unchanged from the previous month (2.9% y/y). It is worth noting that most Fed officials (except Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman) opposed aggressive rate cuts. It can be assumed that the above-mentioned members will also take a cautious stance (except Waller), while still allowing for another rate cut before the end of the year. Also on Monday, the U.S. will publish pending home sales data. This leading indicator of real estate market activity could spark volatility if the actual result deviates significantly from expectations. For the past two months, the index has been in negative territory, but a minimal gain of 0.2% is expected in August. TuesdayDuring the Asian session on Tuesday, China is expected to release its PMI data. The manufacturing PMI has remained in contraction territory (below the 50 mark) since April. In August, it improved slightly to 49.4, and in September, it is expected to rise further to 49.6. A print above the 50 mark could support EUR/USD buyers, as it would boost risk sentiment, with the euro among the beneficiaries—provided that China's non-manufacturing PMI also stays in expansion territory. Forecasts suggest this index will remain at the August level (50.3). On the same day, Germany will publish preliminary September inflation figures. Most analysts expect headline CPI to accelerate again—from 2.2% in August to 2.3% y/y. The harmonized CPI (EU HICP) is also expected to accelerate to 2.2% (after rising to 2.1% in August). If data come in at or above expectations, EUR/USD buyers will get an additional boost, as German inflation figures often correlate with eurozone data (due on Wednesday). During the U.S. session, the JOLTS job openings report for August will be released. In July, openings fell to 7.18 million (the lowest since March 2021), against a forecast of 7.39 million. For August, the downtrend is expected to continue, with the indicator projected at 7.15 million. Although JOLTS is a lagging indicator, it adds to the overall picture of a cooling U.S. labor market, which does not favor the dollar. Another key release on Tuesday will be the Conference Board consumer confidence index. In August, it slipped to 97.4, and in September, it is expected to decline further to 95.3. The release will trigger volatility only if it significantly deviates from the forecast—either above 100 (dollar-positive) or below 90 (dollar-negative). Key speakers on Tuesday include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voting), Fed Governor Philip Jefferson (voting), Boston Fed President Susan Collins (voting this year), Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (voting), and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. WednesdayOn Wednesday, preliminary eurozone inflation data will be released. Most analysts expect the headline CPI to accelerate to 2.2% year-over-year (from 2.0%), while the core index is expected to remain at 2.3%. Such results could provide limited support for the euro, as markets have already priced in the ECB's wait-and-see stance. Following the September meeting, Christine Lagarde made it clear that rates would remain unchanged in the near term. Also on Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be published. This report often serves as a barometer ahead of official NFP data. Forecasts suggest private payrolls will increase by only 53,000 in September. While ADP data do not always align with NFP, such a weak result would pressure the dollar. The September ISM Manufacturing Index will also be released the same day. This key leading indicator of the U.S. economy has remained in contraction territory (below 50) since March. In August, it improved to 48.7 from 48.0, and September is expected to show further growth to 49.1. For dollar bulls, the index must return above 50. Any other result will likely be interpreted negatively for the greenback. ThursdayThursday is likely to be a "calm before the storm." The economic calendar is light, with only the release of U.S. weekly jobless claims standing out. After a sharp spike two weeks ago (264,000), the indicator has declined for two straight weeks (218,000 most recently). For next week, a slight uptick to 229,000 is forecast. For dollar bulls, the figure must remain below 250,000. Also on Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak. She is not a voting member this year, but will gain voting rights in 2026, so her comments could still provoke some volatility in EUR/USD. FridayThe most important day of the week. On Friday, key U.S. labor market data will be released. Forecasts suggest that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3% in September, while nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by only 50,000 (following a 22,000 rise in August). Average hourly earnings growth is likely to remain at 3.7%. These are weak results. Even an in-line report (let alone weaker data) would put significant pressure on the dollar. Also on Friday, the ISM Services Index will be published. Analysts expect it to remain unchanged from August, at 52.0. ConclusionsThe results may reshape expectations regarding future Fed policy. At the moment, markets are almost sure that the Fed will deliver at least one more 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end—most likely in October. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of this scenario is currently 88%. The likelihood of an additional 25-basis-point cut in December stands at 65%. ISM data and, especially, Nonfarm Payrolls could either strengthen or weaken this dovish sentiment. Either the market will conclude that the Fed will limit itself to just one more cut this year (which would boost the dollar across the board), or the likelihood of two cuts—October and December—will increase. In the latter case, the EUR/USD pair could return to the 1.1730–1.1850 range. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In my reviews, I have repeatedly stated that I continue to expect growth in the European currency. Many economists also support this view, as most factors point in favor of the euro. The key factor, in their opinion, is further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, combined with the likely completion of the ECB's easing cycle. Since Donald Trump is demanding that the Fed lower rates to at least 2%, there is reason to expect that the Fed will eventually reach the target that the ECB has already achieved. In other words, over the next six months, a year, or even two, only the Fed will be engaged in rate cuts, putting the already weak dollar in an even more difficult position. The situation for the dollar shifted at the beginning of 2025, when Donald Trump assumed the U.S. presidency for the second time. I will not list all the measures Trump has implemented so far, but it is clear that investors and markets still worry about the state and outlook of the U.S. economy, labor market, and inflation. "Uncertainty" is the best word to describe the current environment. Even tariffs bring no clarity. Markets had just begun to adjust to the reality of high tariffs for half the world's countries when, in November, the U.S. Supreme Court may overturn them. Few believe in this outcome, but once again, this uncertainty weighs against the dollar. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both believe that the EUR/USD pair will surpass the 1.20 mark before the End of the Year. I personally expect to see 1.22 by year-end. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the euro will reach 1.25 within the next 12 months. JPMorgan is confident in its growth to at least 1.22. A stronger euro will hurt European exporters, as their goods will become more expensive for foreign buyers. This could slow down the European economy, negatively impacting the euro's exchange rate. However, since the Fed will continue cutting rates in parallel, the euro is unlikely to fall too low. This outlook fully aligns with the current wave structure. EUR/USD Wave Pattern:Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend as far as the 1.25 area. At present, the instrument is declining within corrective wave 4, while the overall upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, I am considering only long positions in the near term. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. GBP/USD Wave Pattern: The wave structure of GBP/USD has undergone a change in shape. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave pattern is becoming less readable. If wave 4 assumes a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave four will be several times more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new buying. My Core Principles of Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift.If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter.One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Iran's nuclear program is once again raising concerns among Western countries. Several months ago, Donald Trump ordered an airstrike on Iran's underground nuclear facilities. The following day, the U.S. president announced the complete destruction of the three largest uranium enrichment sites, declaring Iran a non-nuclear state. However, only a few days later, experts from relevant fields began to question Trump's statements. In short, experts believe that it was impossible to achieve full destruction of underground facilities, and in practice, such an operation is nearly unattainable. The strikes were targeted, while the facilities themselves cover a large underground area and are not visible from satellites. Moreover, the U.S. did not have precise information on the actual location of Iran's uranium stockpiles. It is possible that the strikes did hit nuclear facilities, but the scale of the damage cannot be reliably assessed. Meanwhile, Donald Trump demanded that Iran hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for relief from new UN sanctions. This time, however, the demand does not concern the complete lifting of all sanctions that have been in place against the country for more than 50 years. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the U.S. proposal would not be considered, as it is unacceptable to Tehran. On September 27, sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal were reinstated. The Iranian president said that Trump is putting forward completely unrealistic demands aimed at depriving the country of the ability to develop nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes. He also stated that if Western countries impose new sanctions, Iran will opt for retaliatory measures rather than compliance. It seems that the conflict may flare up again, despite Trump's earlier declarations about denuclearizing Iran and ending the threat it posed to the world. Iran continues to insist that its uranium work is strictly for peaceful purposes, while the U.S. and European countries maintain accusations that Iran is secretly developing nuclear missiles and bombs. Neither side can provide conclusive evidence to support its position. As I expected, the conflict has not been resolved—it was merely put on hold for a few months. EUR/USD Wave Pattern:Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend as far as the 1.25 area. At present, the instrument is declining within corrective wave 4, while the overall upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, I am considering only long positions in the near term. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. GBP/USD Wave Pattern: The wave structure of GBP/USD has undergone a change in shape. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave pattern is becoming less readable. If wave 4 assumes a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave four will be several times more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new buying. My Core Principles of Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift.If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter.One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming week will be very important for the U.S. dollar. The currency will attempt to hold its ground, but it will be difficult to withstand the pressure from market participants. Most economists expect further weakening of the dollar, driven by instability in the U.S. economy, the threat of rising inflation, the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, and Donald Trump's influence on the Fed. Therefore, the period of calm for the dollar has not yet arrived. Individual events in the U.K. or the Eurozone may put pressure on the euro and the pound, allowing the dollar to strengthen from time to time. However, the situation in the United States is of far greater concern to investors. The new week will bring plenty of noteworthy events in the U.S. I will not list all the speeches of FOMC members – there will be more than 10 of them. Recall that only three members of the Committee hold an openly dovish stance, and just one policymaker is prepared to cut rates by 50 basis points at every meeting. Their votes can still be disregarded for now, since the majority of FOMC members evaluate the U.S. economy more realistically and keep both mandates of the Fed in mind. Even without the FOMC speeches, there will be no shortage of news. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report on job openings for August will be released. Job openings fell steadily in June and July, and the trend may have continued in August. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be published, already posing potential problems for the dollar. That same day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released, which will likely remain below the critical 50.0 level. On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Services PMI will be published. The services index is expected to remain above 50.0, unemployment could stay at 4.3%, but payrolls are once again forecast to be extremely weak – only 40,000 new jobs. For reference, at least 100,000 jobs per month are needed to maintain a stable labor market. Given all of the above, the dollar may face new problems. However, it is important not to judge U.S. indicators by forecasts alone. Forecasts are only approximate values. The actual data could be entirely different. EUR/USD Wave Pattern:Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend as far as the 1.25 area. At present, the instrument is declining within corrective wave 4, while the overall upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, I am considering only long positions in the near term. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. GBP/USD Wave Pattern: The wave structure of GBP/USD has undergone a change in shape. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave pattern is becoming less readable. If wave 4 assumes a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave four will be several times more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new buying. My Core Principles of Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift.If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter.One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The British pound lost more than the euro over the past week, so its wave pattern now looks ambiguous. Recall that complex wave structures have one major drawback – they are extremely difficult to identify in the early stages of formation. Simply put, if the structure is not classical, it is almost impossible to understand what it represents at the beginning. In my analysis, I avoid working with non-standard structures because, as practice shows, such an approach has a low profitability ratio. Therefore, at the moment, the pound is unattractive for opening positions. I rely on the euro's wave pattern. Its supposed waves 2 and 4 in wave 5 both took on a nearly identical three-wave form. Consequently, it can be assumed that the construction of wave 4 in wave 5 has been completed. If this is the case, the euro will resume its upward movement, and the pound sterling will follow. For me, the most significant level is now 1.3341. Two failed attempts to break it may lead to the formation of a new upward wave in GBP/USD. The upcoming news background in the United Kingdom will be rather limited, with the most interesting reports already released. Nevertheless, on Tuesday the final Q2 GDP report will be published. Growth in the UK economy is expected at 0.3%, though the actual figure may come in lower. Final September business activity indices will also be released. In my view, even the data on the placement of government bonds (given recent problems with yields and the budget) may carry greater weight for the market. Even more significant, however, will be the U.S. news background. The pound has already priced in all its negative domestic factors, and now it is time for U.S. economic data, of which there will be plenty next week. In my opinion, the pound may resume forming an upward section of the trend despite its sharp decline and the disruption of the wave pattern. EUR/USD Wave Pattern: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current trend section may extend as far as the 1.25 area. At present, the instrument is declining within corrective wave 4, while the overall upward wave structure remains valid. Accordingly, I am considering only long positions in the near term. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to 200.0% on the Fibonacci scale. GBP/USD Wave Pattern: The wave structure of GBP/USD has undergone a change in shape. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave pattern is becoming less readable. If wave 4 assumes a complex three-wave form, the structure will normalize; however, even in this case, wave four will be several times more complicated and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, it is best to work from the 1.3341 level, which corresponds to 127.2% of the Fibonacci. Two failed attempts to break this level may indicate the market's readiness for new buying. My Core Principles of Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift.If there is no confidence in market developments, it is better not to enter.One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com