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What should you expect from the FOMC meeting this week? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16–17, with traders betting heavily on a 25-basis-point rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 92% probability of easing, a near certainty. The case rests on cooling inflation and weakening labor data. TLDW: FOMC meeting will likely lower interest rates, effectively turning on money printers. Expect long bond yields to GO UP! “The probability of a quarter-point cut is almost baked in,” analysts at CME noted, pointing to CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and PPI softening below 3%. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.29T24h7d1y This will mark the Fed’s first decisive pivot since the hiking cycle began in 2022, when crypto was at historic lows. Markets are primed for Powell’s post-meeting speech to confirm whether more cuts could follow in October or December. Will Powell Cut Rates If Inflation Data is Poor? Bitcoin and Crypto ETFs Signal Upside Potential (Source: TradingView) PPI and CPI have eased compared with last year, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target. CPI came in at 2.9% in August, while Core CPI was 3.1%, both elevated but trending lower. PPI showed a similar pattern with headline 3.3% and core 2.8%. The Fed faces a balancing act of inflation, which isn’t yet “beaten,” but also fading job growth. August’s jobs report showed sub-100K monthly gains for the first time since COVID, and June posted a negative print of –13K. https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1963949130373374327 Historically, rate cuts have weakened the dollar and driven demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin. The setup in 2025 looks no different. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.3 billion last week, with Fidelity’s Wise Origin Fund and BlackRock’s IBIT leading inflows. This was the highest weekly haul in two months, per Farside Investors. Institutional treasuries also continue to accumulate. According to K33 Research, public companies now hold 950,000 BTC worth $110 billion, nearly double the amount held in early 2024. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 What Technical Levels Must Bitcoin Hold Ahead of the Fed Meeting? On the charts, Bitcoin trades near $115,000, just above its 50-day EMA around $114,500. Analysts say this level is critical. “The key will be if the markets sell the news as a 25bp cut is announced and prices are already baked in,” wrote trader Mark Cullen on X. https://twitter.com/HolaItsAk47/status/1967214061734838531 A breakdown could trap BTC between $110K–$115K, but a hold sets up a test of resistance at $117K–$120K, with all-time highs near $124.5K back in sight. DISCOVER: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in 2025 Market Liquidity Context: Why This Time Matters CoinGlass data shows BTC futures open interest up 15% since early September. Meanwhile, the Total crypto market cap sits near $4.05 trillion, which is below recent highs but holding steady in a month that usually hurts Bitcoin. The next move hinges on Powell. The rate cut is already priced in; what matters is tone. Dovish guidance could fuel a Q4 rally, while caution means we’re testing those $100k lows. EXPLORE: ETH USD Price Primed to Retest $4,700: Dark Money Rotating into Ethereum? Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways What should you expect from the FOMC meeting this week? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16–17 this week. PPI and CPI have eased compared with last year, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target. The post What To Expect From FOMC Meeting: What It Means for Bitcoin and Risk Assets appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Recent sell-off overdone, bullish trend remains intact”, published on 5 September 2025. The Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) has staged the expected bullish breakout above its prior 4-week “Ascending Wedge” range resistance of 25,890 and hit the next intermediate resistance at 26,120, as highlighted in our prior report. Thereafter, it extended its gains and scaled up to a 4-year high of 26,583 on 12 September 2025, a rally of 4.7% on the backdrop of a stronger Chinese yuan and robust bullish sentiment in China's Big Tech, such as Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, riding on the tailwinds of China’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) self-reliance policy, with less usage of external semiconductor chips such as Nvidia’s H20. Let’s now examine the latest related fundamental factors that have an impact on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index China’s home prices continued to decline at a slower pace Fig. 1: China’s industrial production, retail sales, house price index for Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Today’s release of China’s industrial production and retail sales for August, which came in below expectations, does not cause a negative material impact on the intraday movements of the China and Hong Kong stock markets, where China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed higher by 0.2% each, respectively. The “bullish relief” stemmed from signs of recovery in China’s housing market, a key factor in preventing an entrenched deflationary spiral. New home prices for August, released today, marked their 10th straight month of improvement since the 10-year low of -5.9% y/y recorded in October 2024. China’s new home prices across 70 cities fell 2.5% y/y in August 2025, moderating from July’s 2.8% decline. This marks the slowest pace of contraction since March 2024 and helps ease concerns over a potential deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy (see Fig. 1). Hence, a slower pace of decline in China’s new home prices, coupled with a firmer offshore Chinese yuan against the US dollar since April 2025, managed to trigger a positive feedback loop back into the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index. Here comes the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish consolidation above adjusted key short-term pivotal support at 26,200. The minor bullish impulsive up move sequence of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index remains intact. A clearance above 26,530 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 26,740/26,790 and 26,940 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2). Key elements The upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 2 June 2025, now stands at 26,940.The 1-hour RSI momentum indicator remains above its ascending support at around the 50 level.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 26,200 key short-term support negates the bullish tone on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for a deeper minor corrective decline to materialise and retest the former “Ascending Triangle” range resistance, now turns medium-term pull-back support at 25,860. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Savannah Resources (LON: SAV) has boosted the reserve estimate for its Barroso lithium project in northern Portugal by 40% after completing additional prospecting work, further cementing its status as Europe’s largest spodumene deposit. The London-listed company now pegs reserves at more than 39 million tonnes, up from a previous estimate of 28 million tonnes. Shares in Savannah rose 2.4% on the news, giving the company a market capitalization of £104 million ($141.5 million). Strategic role for Europe’s EV supply chain Savannah plans to develop four open-pit mines at Barroso, with the capacity to produce enough lithium each year to supply batteries for about 500,000 electric vehicles. Production is expected to begin in 2027, subject to permitting and financing. Once operational, the project is forecast to process 1.5 million tonnes annually over an estimated 14-year mine life. This projection is based on a resource of 20.5 million tonnes grading 1.05% lithium oxide. Local and environmental pushback Despite its strategic significance, the project has been met with strong opposition from local communities and environmental groups. The Barroso region, recognized as a World Heritage agricultural site since 2018, has raised concerns over potential impacts on land use, water, and biodiversity. Savannah is working to finalize its definitive feasibility study and complete the environmental licensing process by the end of this year. The company has also rejected media reports that cited a United Nations committee accusing Portuguese authorities of breaching international law during the project’s approval process.

Dogecoin sits at a technically pivotal juncture, according to crypto analyst CantoneseCat (@cantonmeow), who argues that the next decisive inflection arrives at $0.54—“the final boss”—if the coin can translate an increasingly constructive multi-timeframe structure into weekly acceptance above the Ichimoku cloud. Recording just hours ahead of the weekly close on September 14, he framed DOGE’s backdrop as a steady, methodical rebuild powered by higher-timeframe support retention rather than headline-driven spikes. “I am bullish on Dogecoin,” he said. “There is nothing that I’m really too bearish about here.” Dogecoin Charge Stalls At Ichimoku Wall The crux of his view is that Dogecoin has reclaimed and maintained the key foundations that historically precede its expansion phases. On the monthly chart, price has pushed into the Ichimoku cloud and continues to respect the 20-month moving average as positively sloping support. He emphasized how that moving average has repeatedly served as the trampoline for prior advances: “Every single time whenever it served as support, it’ll push up higher.” In parallel, DOGE has re-engaged the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly timeframe while staying above the 20-week moving average—a configuration that, in his read, signals persistent underlying demand, even if the first contact with overhead resistance produces hesitation. The weekly and two-week Ichimoku structures dominate his near-term roadmap. On the two-week chart, he described “a V-shaped recovery as good as it’s going to get,” with the Kijun acting as the immediate ceiling. On the weekly, he expected the close to determine whether the coin could transition from probing resistance to establishing trend continuation. If the first attempt failed, he said, the setup would remain intact provided the 20-week moving average continued to rise and DOGE preserved its higher-lows structure inside the cloud. The path forward, in his words, remains “one level at a time.” Fibonacci confluence is the second pillar. CantoneseCat places strong weight on the 0.618 logarithmic retracement as the “gatekeeper” for DOGE’s next leg. A confirmed weekly and monthly hold above that line, he contends, would elevate the probability of a measured run into clustered resistance near $0.33 and $0.41, culminating in a test of $0.54. He repeatedly characterized $0.54 as the breakpoint that would flip the narrative from range-bound to trending. “If we close the week above the 0.618, then it does increase the possibility of challenging some of these higher levels at 33 cents, 41 cents and then 54 cents—going to be the final boss,” he said. Clearing that final boss, he added, would put “all-time highs” back on the table without asserting a timeline. The analyst also acknowledged that broader beta still matters at the margin. Bitcoin’s weekly posture around its 20-week Bollinger midline and Tenkan line, he said, often determines whether crypto spends weeks grinding higher or sliding into lower-band purgatory. Into the weekend, he thought BTC was “reclaiming the 20-week,” with a Bollinger squeeze that “anticipate[s] a bigger move to come.” That matters for DOGE primarily insofar as a constructive BTC backdrop tends to relax risk constraints and allow altcoin momentum to express. But the Dogecoin call stands on its own technical legs: monthly cloud engagement, two-week V-recovery, a positively sloped 20-week average, repeated upper-band taps, and—crucially—the 0.618 hold. CantoneseCat also cautioned against over-interpreting the need for perfect retests. On Bitcoin he noted that markets sometimes “manufacture some kind of news” to justify a sweep, a dynamic that can just as easily play out on DOGE during liquidity hunts. For Dogecoin, that means allowing for shallow backfills toward dynamic supports without declaring the structure broken. His emphasis was on continuation patterns—notably flags—forming above reclaimed levels rather than on deep resets. Targets remain crisp and conditional. The first objective is to maintain acceptance above the 0.618 log Fib on weekly and monthly closes. From there, he expects a stair-step sequence through approximately $0.33 and $0.41 before any credible assault on $0.54. He was explicit that $0.54 is the battlefield that would decide whether Dogecoin can transition from a constructive recovery to a trend acceleration phase. Only a weekly breakout and subsequent conversion of the cloud into support would validate that shift. Dogecoin Weekly Close Is Mixed After the weekly candle printed, CantoneseCat confirmed the mixed—but still constructive—result. “DOGE weekly candle closed below the Ichimoku cloud, but a newly forming weekly candle is now inside the Ichimoku cloud to start the week,” he wrote. In a second note he added: “$DOGE closed the week above 0.618 log fib.” Practically, that outcome preserves the bullish scaffolding while postponing a definitive cloud break by at least another bar. The hold above the 0.618 keeps the $0.33 and $0.41 magnets active; the early push back into the cloud suggests momentum is attempting to re-assert. The thesis remains unchanged: as long as Dogecoin defends the 0.618 and the 20-week moving average continues to slope higher, the market will keep steering toward a confrontation with the $0.54 “final boss.” At press time, DOGE traded at $0.2629.

Canadian miner Alamos Gold (TSX, NYSE: AGI) is selling its Turkish subsidiary for $470 million to Middle East-based Tumad Madencilik Sanayi, a unit of conglomerate Nurol Holding, ending a billion-dollar legal battle with Ankara. The deal hands over the Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı and Çamyurt projects in northwestern Turkey to Tumad. It also sets out that arbitration proceedings launched in 2021 by Alamos’ Netherlands units against Turkey will remain suspended and be permanently discontinued once contractual milestones are met. Alamos entered Turkey in 2010 but faced persistent setbacks. Its most high-profile clash came in 2019, when mining concessions for the Kirazlı gold project, near Mount Ida, expired amid mass protests. Activists accused Alamos of excessive tree cutting and planned cyanide use, allegations the miner denied. It also clarified at the time that cyanide would be used the final step of the extraction process and that it had taken measures to ensure there would be no impact in the forested area. In response, Alamos filed a $1-billion arbitration claim against the Turkish government for what it called “unfair and inequitable treatment.” That claim will be dropped once the sale closes. The Kirazlı project was projected to produce 104,000 ounces of gold annually over five years at all-in sustaining costs of $373 per ounce. Alamos has paused the proceedings and will drop the claim once the deal closes. The Toronto-based miner plans to use proceeds to pay down debt and advance its key growth projects, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold in Ontario, the Lynn Lake Project in Manitoba, and the Puerto Del Aire project in Mexico. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since April, posting gains of 1.4%. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6657, up 0.12% on the day. China's industrial production, retail sales slip in August China posted disappointing data in September, as the second largest economy in the world continues to cool. Industrial production expanded 5.2% y/y, down from 5.8% in August and below the market estimate of 5.7%. This was the lowest pace of growth since August 2024, as manufacturing activity slowed and domestic remained weak. China's retail sales rose 3.4% y/y in September, below 3.7% in August and the market estimate of 3.8%. This was the slowest pace since November 2024 and the third straight month of acceleration. There was more bad news on the labor front, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% from 5.2%, the highest level since February. The US-China trade war is weighing on China's economy and the government is pushing exporters to find news markets. If that boosts economic activity, it will be good news for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner. Investors are keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which is virtually certain to lower rates on Wednesday. The Fed hasn't cut rates since December 2024, which means that a cut will be a significant move, even if it has been priced in by the markets. With the US labor market showing signs of strain, the Fed could cut again before the end of the year, likely in December. Inflation remains above the 2% target but the Fed considers the weakening job market a bigger threat to the economy than inflation. AUD/USD Technical AUDUSD is testing resistance at 0.6650. Above, there is resistance at 0.66680.6630 and 0.6612 are the next support levels AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, September 15, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The GBP/JPY pair remains above the psychological level of 200.00, attempting once again to break through 200.35, which it surpassed on Friday. On Thursday, the Bank of England will publish its monetary policy decision, and it appears the main rate will remain unchanged at 4%. In addition, the regulator is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance through the end of 2025, given the recent rise in inflation expectations. These factors continue to support the British pound, providing a tailwind for the GBP/JPY pair. The Japanese yen, in contrast, continues to struggle to attract significant buyers amid expectations that domestic political turmoil may give the Bank of Japan additional reasons to delay rate hikes. This backdrop favors bulls in GBP/JPY. At the same time, most market participants lean toward the view that the Bank of Japan is still on course to gradually normalize its policy. The recent U.S.–Japan agreement has removed a major source of uncertainty in relations between the two countries. In addition, revised Japanese GDP growth data for Q2, along with labor market tensions and the first increase in real incomes in seven months, confirm the possibility of another Bank of Japan rate hike later this year. This scenario stands in contrast to softer expectations from the Bank of England and may limit further GBP/JPY growth. As a result, the market's main focus is on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting scheduled for Friday, where monetary policy directions will be reviewed. In addition, key U.K. labor market data due on Tuesday, as well as consumer inflation figures to be released on Wednesday, may influence pound quotes and further impact GBP/JPY dynamics. Nevertheless, ahead of these central bank events, market reaction is expected to remain cautious, given the risks. From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, and the pair has broken above the psychological level of 200.00. The 9-day EMA is positioned above the 14-day EMA, with prices trading above both. This indicates that the path of least resistance for the pair is upward. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD pair started the current week on a positive note, holding above the 1.1730 level. In the event of a pullback, the downward potential appears limited, given the divergence in expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy, as well as ahead of key central bank events scheduled for this week. As expected, last Thursday the ECB left interest rates unchanged, maintaining optimism about economic growth and inflation. In addition, the regulator emphasized that it would be guided by incoming data at its meetings, without making specific commitments in advance regarding the future path of rates. This approach reduced expectations of further borrowing cost cuts and supported the euro and EUR/USD. As a result, traders lowered the probability of another ECB rate cut before spring to around 40%. This gives the euro an advantage over the Fed, which is expected to cut rates this week. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates more than a 90% probability of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday. These expectations weaken the U.S. dollar, creating a favorable backdrop for EUR/USD growth. Even so, euro buyers remain cautious for now, preferring to wait for the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy scheduled for Wednesday. Traders are focused on signals regarding the Fed's future course, which will determine the short-term movement of the dollar and have a significant impact on EUR/USD. In this context, fundamentals suggest that any pullback may offer a good opportunity to enter long positions. Today, attention should be paid to speeches by ECB official Isabel Schnabel and ECB President Christine Lagarde. From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, prices are trading above the 9-day EMA, and the 9-day EMA is positioned above the 14-day EMA, which is currently aligned with the 1.1700 round level. This indicates a bullish outlook for the pair. The nearest resistance is at the 1.1700 round level, above which the pair will reach a monthly high on the way toward 1.1800. Support lies at the 1.1700 round level, followed by 1.1685. The 50-SMA at 1.1660 will serve as the key pivot point. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin remains quite resilient, following an uptrend. However, this growth is fragile, experts warn investors. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US dollar is unstable and leans negative. Against this backdrop, analysts believe that the dollar may require shock therapy for a meaningful recovery. On Monday, September 15, Bitcoin opened the day with a slight decline, trading near $115,670. At its daily peak, the leading cryptocurrency reached $116,181. According to analysts, BTC has launched a new upward wave, rising above $112,500 and breaking through resistance levels at $113,500 and $114,200. At the start of the new week, Bitcoin bulls managed to push the price above $115,000 and $116,000, which led to consolidation. Later, Bitcoin pulled back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from the swing low of $110,815 to the high of $116,743. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $115,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. However, on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, a bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $116,000. Experts estimate the nearest resistance in this uptrend lies around $116,000. The next resistance could be around $116,750, potentially pushing BTC toward $117,500. If that level is tested, Bitcoin could continue climbing toward $118,500, with the next obstacle for bulls at $118,800. If Bitcoin fails to break above the $116,200 resistance zone, a new decline may begin. Immediate support is now seen near $114,900, while major support remains at $113,750 — the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent move from $110,815 to $116,743. According to analysts, further losses could push Bitcoin down toward $112,500 or even lower, although this is considered an extreme scenario that Bitcoin is likely to avoid. Bitcoin has also found support from a surge in inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After two weeks of moderate flows, net weekly inflows jumped nearly tenfold at the end of last week — reaching $2.34 billion, the highest since mid-July 2025. Experts believe the crypto market has momentum heading into Q4 this year. This rally — supported by treasury-backed institutions — is being driven by increased liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and promising regulatory developments in the digital asset space. Does the US dollar need shock therapy to recover? In the current climate, the US dollar is finding it increasingly difficult to remain steady. It's under consistent pressure and facing downside risks. According to analysts, a full recovery for the USD may require a shock, not just to the dollar, but to the global economy and financial system as a whole. However, no such major event is on the horizon. A brief moment of support for the dollar came from the decision to allow Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to attend the September FOMC meeting. At the same time, expectations are growing for further monetary policy easing by the Fed. This shift in stance comes after a record downward revision in US employment data — wiping out 911,000 jobs from previous estimates — and an unexpected drop in producer price indexes (PPI) in August. Against this backdrop, the US dollar Index (DXY) has remained in a narrow range of 97–98 points for the past five weeks. This follows a six-month USD downtrend and an unsuccessful attempt at a rebound in July. In this context, a sideways move is seen as a bearish signal for the dollar. Analysts say the limited scope of the current bounce suggests sellers remain in control. At the same time, the dollar is now hovering near a 13-year uptrend support line. But even staying at this level likely won't prevent further weakness, according to experts. Market participants are increasingly expecting the Fed to carry out a series of 4–5 rate cuts. Analysts consider this scenario quite realistic. If that happens, the fundamentals will be in place for continued dollar weakness at the start of the new fiscal year. A reversal of this negative trend may only be possible if there is a major shock in global financial markets. But as of now, there are no clear signs of such a development. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated ahead of a new and important week. Quotes remained throughout the day above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, which preserves the prospects of growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. Thus, on Monday and Tuesday, in the absence of new signals, I expect the uptrend to continue. Likely weak growth, as the news background during these days will be light. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. currency and a decline toward the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend is currently bullish, although not very strong or confident. The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for Fed monetary policy support only the bullish traders. There were few important reports on Friday. Inflation in Germany rose to 2.2% y/y in August, but the ECB has already informed the markets that it does not intend to conduct further monetary easing in the near future. However, the regulator also does not expect strong inflation growth, so most likely this indicator will continue to hover around 2%, without causing discomfort. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined again, but traders were already resting and waiting for the new week. This week, several speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and the Fed meeting will take place. The Fed meeting will determine the pair's further movement. The question now can be framed as follows: how many times will the Fed cut rates before the end of the year? The baseline scenario – twice; the dovish scenario – three times. Traders lean toward the dovish scenario, so Jerome Powell's comments will be very important. However, I do not think the Fed Chair will give any forecasts. Most likely, he will limit himself to the standard phrase: "the Fed's decisions will depend on economic data." On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal channel, which allows traders to expect further growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicator today. A rebound from 1.1854 would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline, while consolidation above 1.1854 would increase the pair's chances of continuing higher toward the next level at 1.2066. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: In the last reporting week, professional players opened 2,389 long positions and closed 3,696 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 258,000, compared with 132,000 short positions. The gap is practically twofold. Also note the number of green cells in the table above, reflecting strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines. For thirty-one consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could trigger numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several key trade agreements, many major economic indicators continue to decline. News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone: Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (06:00–10:00 UTC).September 15 – the economic calendar contains one entry of little importance. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be weak. EUR/USD forecast and trading tips: Sales can be considered today if the hourly chart closes below 1.1695, targeting the 1.1637–1.1645 zone. Purchases could have been made at the end of last week when the pair closed above 1.1695, targeting the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. These trades can remain open today, with Stop Loss moved to breakeven. The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD traded sideways on Friday just below the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3587. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, which traders could then work through. A consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620 would allow for further growth toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3708. The wave picture continues to shift toward bullish. The last completed wave downward broke through two previous lows, while the new upward wave broke through the last two peaks. Thus, at this point it can be assumed that a new bullish trend is starting after more than two months of weak bearish dominance. That dominance proved very fragile, as the news background in most cases did not support the bears. On Friday, the bulls did not receive the necessary news background to overcome key levels and zones. U.K. GDP in July did not increase even by 0.1%, and industrial production fell again—something traders are already accustomed to. This week, a lot will depend on the outcomes of the Fed and Bank of England meetings. The Fed may follow the baseline scenario, but any dovish hint about labor market weakness or the possibility of three policy easings by year-end would support the bulls. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is likely to take a "neutral" stance, as U.K. inflation continues to rise. I believe that one or two MPC members will vote for a rate cut, which is unlikely to strongly support the bears. Thus, on Monday, the news background appears to favor the bulls. However, I want to remind you that central bank meetings are multifaceted events. Jerome Powell may say something unexpected. Andrew Bailey may adopt a less "neutral" stance. Or the number of MPC members voting for a rate cut could exceed forecasts. In all these cases, bulls may retreat. Still, the bullish trend remains in place, and if not now, then within a week the pound is likely to continue its rise. On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed a new reversal in favor of the pound and consolidated above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Thus, growth may continue toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. The chart pattern is currently ambiguous, with traders moving the pair in both directions. At this stage, I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart. There are more levels there and it is easier to work with waves. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicator. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category did not change in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 1,213, while the number of short positions fell by 748. The gap between longs and shorts is currently about 75,000 versus 109,000. But as we can see, the pound is still leaning toward growth, and traders toward buying. In my view, the pound still faces the prospect of declines. The news background in the first half of the year was disastrous for the U.S. dollar but is gradually stabilizing. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy in Q2 is expected to recover thanks to tariffs and various types of investment in the U.S. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year are already creating strong pressure on the dollar, as the U.S. labor market is weakening and unemployment is rising. Thus, I still see no basis for a "dollar trend." News calendar for the U.S. and U.K.: September 15 – the economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Monday. GBP/USD forecast and trading tips: Sales of the pair are possible on a rebound from 1.3587 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3482. Purchases are possible today on a close above the 1.3611–1.3620 zone with a target of 1.3708. The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview: The US dollar begins the important week quietly but heavier against all the G10 currencies, led by sterling. It is pushing against the $1.36 cap that has blocked the upside over the past couple of months. All but a few emerging market currencies also enjoy a firmer tone today. The Mexican peso has recorded a new high for the year as the greenback slips toward MXN18.40. The appeals court ruling on President Trump's firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may come today ahead of the tomorrow's start of the FOMC meeting, which is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bp for the first time this year. Equities are mostly higher. There were a few exceptions in the Asia Pacific region, including Taiwan, Australia, and India. Europe's Stoxx 600 is firmer and recouped the minor loss seen before the weekend. US index futures are narrowly mixed. European 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp lower. French bonds are underperforming slightly after the Fitch's downgrade before the weekend. Spanish and Portuguese yields have leading, after their rating upgrades, but Italian bond yields have fallen nearly as much. The 10-year Treasury yield, which dipped below 4% briefly last week, is little changed today near 4.06%. Gold continues to consolidate after setting the record high last Tuesday a little below $3675. After trading in a wide-range before the weekend (~$61.70-$64.00), October WTI is trading calmer today between about $62.50-$63.25. USD: The Dollar Index is trading in a narrow 20-tick range above 97.50 so far today. With a couple of exceptions early last week, the Dollar Index largely remains within the range set on September 5 when the August jobs data were reported (~97.45-98.25). Another way to see the price action is that since Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on August 22, DXY has forged a down channel. The parameters are roughly 97.15 and 98.45 today, falling by about 10 ticks over the course of the week. The important week starts slowly with only the September NY State manufacturing survey today. August retail sales and industrial output figures will be released tomorrow ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. President Trump has requested a decision today by a federal appeals court on his request that the lower court decision blocking his firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Today is also a personal and corporate tax day and there are pressures in parts of the money markets related to it and the settlement of last week's auctions. EURO: The euro is trading firmly in a narrow range, and has fray the highs set last Thursday and Friday, which was a few hundredths of a cent below $1.1750. The euro has remained largely confined to the range seen on September 5, the US jobs day: ~$1.1650-$1.1760. The relatively low implied vol (less than 7% for three months and around 6.5% for one month) is what one might expect before a large move. Fitch downgraded France to A+ from AA- and lifted Portugal's rating to A from A-, while S&P raised Spain's rating a notch to A+. There has been little market reaction. The euro zone July trade surplus was reported earlier today. The seasonally adjusted surplus was 5.3 bln euros, less than half of the median in Bloomberg's survey, even if a little larger than the 3.7 bln euros reported in June. It is not a particularly market sensitive report. Still, it is interesting to note that the H125 trade surplus was about 8.5% lower than in H1 24. Tomorrow sees Germany's ZEW survey but after last week's ECB meeting, the euro area is out of the spotlight given the five G10 central banks that meet in the coming days. We continue to closely follow the US-German two-year rate differential. It is at a new low for the year and around 155 bp it is the smallest US premium since last September. It has narrowed by slightly more than 25 bp since Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke in Jackson Hole on August 22. CNY: From early May through late July, the dollar fell by about 1.5% against the offshore yuan. It has fallen a little less than 1.0% against the offshore yuan since August 1. The greenback recorded the low for the year last Thursday near CNH7.1120. The PBOC is guiding the dollar through lowering the dollar's daily reference rate, though it was raised a little to today. It was set at CNY7.1056 after CNY7.1019 before the weekend. China reported a slew of August data today. The bottom line is that house prices, new and used, continued to fall, and retail sales and industrial production (year-to-date, year-over-year) were softer. Investment in the property market and residential property sales remains weak. Fixed asset investment slipped to 0.5% (year-to-date, year-over-year), which is the weakest since the pandemic and that is what one would expect if the anti-involution (excess investment) campaign yielded results. Lastly, while US-Chinese officials are negotiating, Beijing not only launched two investigations into the US chips but offered a preliminary conclusion that Nvidia violated antitrust law in its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies. JPY: Ahead of the weekend, the dollar traded within the previous session's range against the Japanese yen. Firmer US rates helped steady the greenback. It remains inside last Thursday's range (~JPY147.00-JPY148.20). Japan's data calendar is light until the middle of the week when the July tertiary industry index and the August trade balance is due. The highlight of the week is the BOJ meeting Thursday and Friday. It will not change its stance, but Governor Ueda's forward guidance will be scrutinized. Most likely he continues his observation that provided the economy evolves as expected, rates can be lifted. GBP: Sterling is knocking on the $1.3600 cap. It has not been above there for a little more than two months and has been turned back from approaching it three times. A push above could see $1.3635 next. It found support last Thursday a little below $1.3500 and the 20-day moving average. The UK employment report is due tomorrow followed by the CPI on Wednesday before the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. There is little question, but the BOE is on hold, likely into Q1 26. The focus may be more scaling back its outright Gilt sales. CAD: The dollar has risen against the Canadian dollar in eight of the past 10 sessions coming into today. The Canadian dollar's roughly 0.75% in the first two weeks of September give it the dubious honor of the worst performing G10 currency against the dollar. The lack of follow-through US dollar selling after last Thursday's technical reversal leaves the greenback consolidating above that low (~CAD1.3825), which is also where the 20-day moving average is found. Over the weekend, Prime Minister Carney launched a new agency to build affordable homes, and it will be capitalized with C$13 bln. Today's housing data and manufacturing and wholesale sales typically do not have much market impact. And even more so given that tomorrow sees August CPI and the central bank meeting on Wednesday. A few hours before the FOMC's outcome, the Bank of Canada is expected to its overnight rate target to 2.50% from 2.75%. AUD: The Australian dollar was the strongest currency in the world last week, rising about 3.5% against the US dollar to a new high for the year. It stalled before the weekend after reaching nearly $0.6670. It is firm today, though no new progress has been achieved. There is one report this week and it is the August jobs data on Thursday. While overall growth has slowed, full-time employment has risen by about 21k on average over the three months through July compared with a little fewer than 7k average in the previous three months. The stabilization of the labor market and the firmer consumption has spurred a more cautious outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The year-end rate implied by the futures market has risen by a little more than 30 bp since early July, and almost half of which has been recorded since mid-August. MXN: It is a sparse week for Mexico's economic diary. The peso rose to a new high for the year at the end of last week, which was more a reflection of the decline in the US dollar and lower US interest rates. And that seems to explain the move to new highs for the year by the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which also rose to new highs for the year. The peso has edged a little higher today. Even if Mexico cuts later this month, which seems even more likely after the disappointing July industrial production figure (-1.2% vs. the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey of a 0.2% decline), the interest rate pickup will remain attractive for dollar-based investors. For the better part of the past month and a half, the dollar has been rangebound between MXN18.51 and MXN19.00 and mostly below MXN18.80. It broke out to the downside last week and fell to almost MXN18.4380. It edged down to almost MXN18.4150 today. We have suggested that the next technical target may be around MXN18.40, we suspect there may be potential toward MXN18.18 in Q4. Disclaimer

Bitcoin continues to gain bullish momentum. At the time of early European trading, it has once again returned to its weekly high around $116,800. Ethereum has also seen solid gains after ending last week on an optimistic note. As traders gear up for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting — which could push the crypto market even higher — Arthur Hayes gave a new interview, urging Bitcoin investors to remain patient, as the current bull market could last until 2026. Hayes expects Donald Trump to launch a major economic stimulus in mid-2026, potentially triggering explosive growth in the cryptocurrency market. Hayes' forecast is based on several key factors. First, he expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy in response to slowing economic growth. This would increase market liquidity and, as a result, drive up the prices of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Second, Hayes believes Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for a new wave of economic expansion. Known for his support of tax cuts and deregulation, Trump's policies, according to Hayes, will likely boost investment and consumer spending. This would create a favorable environment for crypto market growth. Third, Hayes points out that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive to institutional investors. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, more large corporations and investment funds are allocating capital to the sector. Hayes believes this trend will continue, providing additional support for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Let's not forget about the altcoin season. According to data, the Altseason Index has climbed to 80 — its highest level since the euphoric aftermath of Trump's 2024 election victory. This suggests that the altseason is in full swing. Many market analysts still expect it to peak in Q3 of this year. Trading recommendations Bitcoin (BTC) In terms of the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $116,000 level, which opens a clear path toward $117,500 — and from there, it's a short distance to $118,600. The final target would be the high near $119,300; breaking through that level would confirm a strengthening bull market. In case of a pullback, buyers are expected around $114,600. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC down toward $113,200, with the final support target at $111,900. Ethereum (ETH) As for Ethereum, a solid consolidation above the $4,697 level opens the way to $4,784. The ultimate upside target is the high near $4,913; a breakout above that would signal a stronger bull market and renewed buyer interest. If ETH pulls back, buyers are expected at $4,601. A drop below this zone could push ETH down to $4,519, with the final target around $4,418. What's on the chart The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply. The green line shows the 50-day moving average. The blue line is the 100-day moving average. The lime line is the 200-day moving average. Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis. This week, from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3787 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.3658 – the upper fractal (weekly candle of July 6, 2025). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Monthly chart – upward.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Overall summary of GBP/USD weekly candle calculation: during the week, the price is most likely to show an upward trend with the absence of a lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward) and the presence of an upper shadow (Friday – downward). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3658 – the upper fractal (weekly candle of July 6, 2025). Upon reaching this level, the price may then move downward toward 1.3579 – the historical support level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1886 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1828 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Monthly chart – upward.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Overall summary of EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: during the week, the price is most likely to show an upward trend with the absence of a lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward) and the presence of an upper shadow (Friday – downward). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the pair may continue moving upward toward 1.1828 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1717 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may start moving upward toward 1.3593 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon testing this line, the price may then move downward toward 1.3582 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 11, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving upward toward 1.3582 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 11, 2025). Upon testing this level, the price may then move downward toward 1.3543 – the historical support level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader. #instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may continue upward toward 1.1788 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a downward move toward 1.1747 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 12, 2025) – is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue upward toward 1.1747 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 12, 2025). Upon reaching this level, a pullback downward toward 1.1697 – the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line) – is possible. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dogecoin jumped back into the spotlight on Monday after fresh price calls from market commentators and a clear technical move on charts. According to Ali Martinez, the meme token could head as high as $0.45, a level last seen at the end of 2021. DOGE was trading at around $0.29, more than 5% higher than it was yesterday, and traders are watching whether now-support at $0.27 holds. Technical Breakout And Volume Spike Trading activity around the breakout caught attention. Based on reports, DOGE pushed above the $0.27 zone that had capped rallies through the summer and then consolidated above it, a pattern traders view as healthy. The weekly chart showed a breakout from a multimonth symmetrical triangle, and trading volumes during that move more than tripled — a sign that momentum gained backing from buyers. Shorter term targets being watched include $0.39 and the $0.43–$0.45 band cited by some analysts. Triangle Target Paints A Bigger Picture Chart-based targets diverge. Using the triangle’s maximum height, some calculations put a breakout objective near $0.60, which would be about a 95% rise from current levels if reached by October. Other chartists have lower targets clustered around $0.45, matching the upper line of a wider multi-year triangle. These different readings mean the path higher is not universally agreed, but the technical case for a move is clear on several timeframes. Short-Term Risks And Support Levels The key risk is holding the new floor. Reports note that past Dogecoin rallies stalled when gains could not be kept above freshly conquered levels. If DOGE falls back under $0.27, momentum would likely fade and price could slide toward the prior base around $0.20–$0.25. Retail Demand And Recent Gains Retail interest has returned, helped in part by the launch of a new Dogecoin ETF, which drew fresh attention to the token. DOGE has already rallied by nearly 40% over the past seven days, outpacing the broader crypto market that rose by about 8% over the same span. Trading desks say the bias is tilted higher for now, but many traders are treating September as a make-or-break month for the next major move. Chart Targets Diverge But Bias Is Up Meanwhile, as momentum indicators and volume favor further upside, cautious traders point to the mixed targets and the need for clear support. Some models project $0.45 as the immediate ceiling; others place a loftier objective near $0.60. If the breakout is sustained, gains could be swift. If not, losses could be sharp. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Edge Higher, Japanese Markets Closed Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones on a Tear as Fed Rate Cut Looms Asian stock markets rose, following a global trend, as investors expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Even with disappointing economic news from China—where business activity slowed and investment fell sharply for the second month in a row. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a measure of stocks across Asia, climbed 0.2% to surpass its previous record set in February 2021. Meanwhile, a global stock index held steady after hitting its own record high on Friday. Due to a holiday in Japan, there was no trading of US government bonds (Treasuries) in Asia. Nikkei futures stood at 44520 just below the cash close of 44768 after last weeks 4% gain. South Korea's stock market went up by 0.4% to reach another record high after the government decided not to increase taxes on stock investments. Chinese stocks performed well, with major companies up by 0.5% and Hong Kong's stock index up by 0.2%. This was driven by investors betting on Chinese technology companies, likely because of ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S. Top officials from the U.S. and China began trade talks in Madrid on Sunday and will continue them today. President Trump mentioned he is still in negotiations about the deadline for the Chinese app TikTok to sell its U.S. operations. Chinese Data Underwhelms China's factory and industrial output grew by 5.2% compared to the same time last year. This was a slower pace than July's 5.7% and was less than what economists had predicted. It was the slowest growth since August 2024. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker growth in manufacturing and in the production of things like electricity and gas, which suggests that people in China aren't buying as much. However, some areas still did well. Mining output grew steadily, and within manufacturing, many key sectors saw growth. This included industries like car making, computers, shipbuilding, and metal production. Even with the recent slowdown, China's industrial output has still grown by 6.2% over the first eight months of the year. On a month-to-month basis, output increased by a small amount, 0.37%. European Open - Banking Stocks Lift European Shares European stocks went up on Monday morning, mainly because bank stocks did well. Investors are getting ready for a big week of meetings by central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could decide to cut interest rates. Shares of the French company Rubis also jumped 6.7% after a report came out saying that two companies, CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura, are making offers to buy it. Rubis is a fuel company worth about $3.5 billion. In France, the stock market went up by 0.4%, with French banks like SocGen, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole all seeing their share prices increase. This happened despite the fact that Fitch downgraded France's credit rating on Friday. This downgrade could make it harder for the new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, to create a new budget. On the FX front, the euro weakened slightly against the dollar, trading at 1.1729. Meanwhile, the British pound and Australian dollar both rose. The pound increased to 1.3565, and the Australian dollar went up to 0.6663, getting close to its highest value in 10 months, which it reached on Friday. The Japanese yen also became a bit stronger, trading at 147.44 per U.S. dollar, as investors anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy meeting later this week. The New Zealand dollar also saw a small gain, rising to 0.5964. Even though China released disappointing economic news—showing that its factory production and retail sales had their weakest growth since last year—the Chinese yuan still saw a slight increase against the US dollar, reaching 7.1213 per dollar. This was mainly because the US dollar was a bit weaker overall. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Monday. This was due to two main factors: drone attacks by Ukraine on oil refineries in Russia and a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump said he is ready to place sanctions on Russia if NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. Brent crude oil cost $67.31 per barrel, up 32 cents, and U.S. crude oil cost $63.01 per barrel, also up 32 cents. Both types of oil rose by about 0.5%. Gold prices remained steady on Monday. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut, which is widely expected to happen this week. However, some investors are selling their gold to take profits after its recent rise, and a stronger U.S. dollar is also limiting how much gold prices can increase. Spot gold was priced at $3,642.65 per ounce. Last week, gold climbed about 1.6%, reaching a new record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for December delivery went down slightly, by 0.2%, to $3,680.20. For more information on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Eyeing a new all-time high above US$3,675, supported by positive flows and positioning Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be a quiet one with the US session also relatively bare from a data perspective. Markets will focus on updates from US-China talks, developments around Russia-Ukraine and any comments around the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration could stoke volatility. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSEhas returned to the top of the range it broke last week. Bulls remain in control as long as the FTSE remains above the swing low at 9242 which lines up with the 100-day MA. Looking at price action it does appear that we could get a pullback toward the 100-day MA before a potential new leg to the upside. Immediate resistance now rests at 9300 and 9340. Looking at support on the downside, immediate support rests at 9244 before the 9223 and 9198 handles come into focus. FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, September 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. 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Last Friday, US equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged down 0.05%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.49%. At the start of this week, the indices remain close to all-time highs, as investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. The global equity index held steady after closing at its highest on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared gains after briefly closing above its previous record from February 2021. Chinese indexes advanced 0.4%, despite weak data on manufacturing and consumption. French 10-year bond futures fell after Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+. The key question for investors this week is whether Fed officials will push back against market expectations for a series of rate cuts that many economists anticipate will extend through next year. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will set the tone for global markets, but it is not the only major event on the calendar. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are also due to announce monetary policy decisions, making this a pivotal week for central banks worldwide. In China, economic activity slowed for a second straight month, outpacing expectations due to a sharp drop in investment. August data from China offers little encouragement: exports remain under pressure from tariffs, and a slump in the property market continues to weigh on domestic demand. Still, markets seem to be ignoring these signals: households with cash on hand are returning to equities, while the artificial intelligence boom is fueling tech stock gains. Liquidity inflows from Chinese households, combined with AI-related momentum, are feeding a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rising tech valuations are attracting new investors, who in turn drive prices even higher. However, such euphoria is unlikely to last. It is clear that Chinese authorities will have to take more decisive measures to stimulate the economy and restore confidence among larger investors. If negative trends persist, even robust growth in artificial intelligence will not be enough to compensate for underlying fundamental issues. More aggressive fiscal policy may be needed to support domestic demand and boost infrastructure investment. Otherwise, a bubble in Chinese equities could burst, carrying serious consequences for the global economy. From a technical standpoint, the immediate task for S&P 500 buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at $6,590. Breaking through this level would enable further growth and open the way to the next target at $6,603. Equally important is maintaining control above $6,616, which would further strengthen the bull case. If risk appetite wanes and the index moves lower, buyers will need to defend the $6,577 area. A break below this support would quickly send the index back to $6,563 and open the path toward $6,552. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Banks lift European markets European stocks opened the week with modest gains, largely supported by bank shares. Investors are bracing for a pivotal series of central bank meetings in the coming days, with the US Federal Reserve at the center of attention. Rubis shines after takeover talk Shares of French energy retailer Rubis surged following reports of potential acquisition interest. According to market sources, both CVC Capital Partners and commodities trader Trafigura are considering a deal. The news sent Rubis stock up by 6.7 percent, making it the best performer within the STOXX 600 index. The company's market value is estimated at around 3.5 billion dollars. Banking sector leads the way The pan-European STOXX 600 index climbed 0.2 percent in early trading, reaching 556.2 points. Banks, typically sensitive to rate moves, were the strongest contributors, adding nearly 0.8 percent. In France, the CAC 40 index advanced 0.4 percent. Shares of Societe Generale gained 1.3 percent, while BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose about 0.9 percent each. France faces ratings challenge Meanwhile, the market continues to digest Fitch's downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating announced on Friday. The move complicates the position of newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who is about to engage in difficult budget negotiations. Focus on the Federal Reserve The spotlight later this week will turn to the Federal Reserve, as investors await its decision on interest rates. Any signals from the US central bank are expected to set the tone for global markets in the near term. Optimism fueled by rate cut expectations Global markets opened the week on a positive note as traders increasingly expect the US Federal Reserve to respond to signs of labor market weakness with at least a quarter-point rate cut. Such a move would mark the first dovish policy shift of the year. Asia hovers near multi-year highs Asian stocks on Monday held steady near four-year peaks. Investors anticipate a packed week of central bank meetings that could restart the Fed's easing cycle and potentially pave the way for a series of rate reductions in the months ahead. Central banks under the spotlight Beyond the Fed, attention is also directed toward other key regulators. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to lower its rate by 25 basis points, while both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are likely to leave policy unchanged. European and US futures edge higher European equity markets are set to open with modest gains: futures on the EUROSTOXX 50 advanced 0.3 percent. US benchmarks also pointed upward, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures adding 0.1 percent each. Market bets on the Fed Traders are pricing in with near certainty a quarter-point Fed rate cut, which would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.0 - 4.25%. Futures imply only a slim four percent chance of a deeper, half-point cut. Quiet session in Asia With Japan observing a public holiday, Asian markets saw subdued activity. On the currency front, the euro showed little reaction to Fitch's recent downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating. Euro holds steady The single currency started the week with little movement, trading at 1.1732 dollars, just below its recent peak of 1.1780. The US dollar slipped 0.15 percent against the yen to 147.44, staying within the month-long range of 146.22 to 149.13. Support from the ECB The euro found stability in firm policy signals from the European Central Bank. Last week, the ECB emphasized that its current stance is well positioned. Investors are now awaiting remarks from several ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, scheduled later this week. Nikkei closed, futures active Japan's Nikkei index remained shut on Monday due to a public holiday, though futures traded around 44,520 points, slightly below the last close of 44,768. The index had advanced more than 4 percent over the past week. Asia's resilience continues The MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan held steady in the latest session, although earlier it touched a fresh four-year high. Gains in Seoul and Beijing In South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.4 percent, setting another record high after the government scrapped plans to raise taxes on stock investments.Chinese markets also showed strong momentum: the CSI300 gained 0.5 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2 percent. Investor appetite for Chinese tech stocks grew as hopes rose over progress in trade talks between Beijing and Washington. Talks in Madrid move forward On Sunday evening, US and Chinese officials wrapped up the first day of trade discussions in Madrid, with negotiations set to resume later on Monday. President Donald Trump commented that the timing of a potential sale of the Chinese short-video platform TikTok is still under review, and no final decision has been made. China's economy shows signs of slowing Fresh economic figures released Monday reveal that China's growth momentum weakened in August. Industrial output, retail sales and other activity indicators fell short of expectations.The property sector remains under pressure, with real estate investment continuing to decline. Housing prices dropped by another 0.3 percent last month, extending the downward trend that has persisted since the start of 2023. Oil edges up, gold steady near highs Commodities saw moderate gains at the start of the week. Brent crude rose 0.5 percent to 67.33 dollars a barrel, while US crude climbed by the same margin to around 63 dollars. Gold prices held firm at 3644 dollars per ounce, staying close to last week's record high of 3673.95 dollars. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crypto analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) warned on September 14 that a familiar—and historically unfriendly—market pattern has reappeared: speculative leverage pouring into altcoins while Bitcoin’s derivatives positioning stays conspicuously muted. “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes, and right now a major warning signal is flashing,” he said, stressing that his message is not to incite panic but to flag a shift in market climate that “any smart investor” should not ignore. At the core of Maartunn’s diagnosis is open interest, the notional value of active futures and perpetual positions across venues. “We keep throwing around this term, open interest. What is it? Well, to put it simply, it’s a way to measure the total amount of money and active bets in the market. When open interest rises, it means new money, often speculative money, is coming in,” he explained. Crypto’s ‘Musical Chairs’ Moment In his read, altcoin open interest is “through the roof,” while Bitcoin—“the anchor of the whole market”—is flat. The divergence, he argued, is precisely what preceded the late-2024 drawdown. “Altcoin speculation is heating up — the gap between BTC and Altcoin Open Interest just hit a new high,” Maartuun wrote via X. Maartunn anchored his warning in a recent analogue. “Back in December of 2024, the exact same story played out. Altcoin speculation was running wild, while Bitcoin was just stagnating. And the result? It wasn’t pretty.” The immediate aftermath, he recalled, was a sharp, broad-based markdown and then a tedious consolidation. “We’re talking [about] a 30% drop,” he said of Bitcoin’s move, adding that such declines “don’t happen in a vacuum.” Liquidity retreats to safety, correlations rise, and “those high-flying, speculative altcoins… get hit the hardest.” What followed was “three whole months” of rangebound “chop modus,” a period that historically bleeds momentum strategies and punishes late-cycle leverage. To illustrate how leverage-heavy phases can abruptly unravel, he leaned on a metaphor. “It’s a high-stakes game of musical chairs,” he said. As long as flows are positive, “the party’s in full swing, and everyone feels like a genius.” The structural risk emerges at the moment “the music stops”—an adverse headline, an exogenous macro shock, or simply fatigued bid depth. “Everyone makes a mad dash for a chair, for safety. But in a panic, there just aren’t enough chairs for everybody, and someone always gets left holding the bag.” In crypto’s derivatives-driven microstructure, that dash translates into forceful de-risking and liquidations that can cascade across thin order books. Crucially, Maartunn framed his assessment as situational risk—not a deterministic crash call. “This isn’t about predicting a crash or trying to cause a panic, not at all,” he said at the outset. The point, rather, is to recognize that the “growing split in the market” between exuberant altcoin leverage and a subdued Bitcoin base “can’t last forever.” “The level of risk in the market has clearly gone up,” he concluded. “The music is absolutely still playing, but it’s probably a good time to know where the emergency exits are.” The open question is the one he leaves viewers with: whether this is merely “the market… enjoying the music before another painful dip,” as in December 2024, or whether “this time really [is] different.” In either case, Maartunn’s thesis hinges on the same observable setup: a momentum-chasing build-up of altcoin derivatives exposure with no confirming expansion in Bitcoin’s positioning. If the past is a guide, the divergence is less a timing tool than a warning label on the current phase of the cycle—one that tends to end not when everyone expects it, but when liquidity blinks. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood $4.0 trillion.

The crypto market remains steady but cautious ahead of the September 16–17 Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are closely watching for signals on monetary policy, with many asking the same question: what is the best crypto to buy in this environment? Bitcoin BTC ▼-0.45% is trading around $115,700 after briefly dipping under $115,000. On the daily chart, BTC has reclaimed the $112K support and now faces resistance near $120,000. A breakout above this level could open the path back toward $124,000, while failure to hold $112,000 risks a retest of $108,000. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.30T24h7d1y Ethereum ETH ▼-1.21% is hovering above $4,600 after a small dip, while altcoins remain under pressure. Sector-wide losses have been led by GameFi (-3.03%), DeFi (-2.21%), and meme coins (-2.85%). DISCOVER: Did Dogecoin ETF Just Change Everything For Meme Coins? Best Crypto To Buy Right Now: Bitcoin Holds $116K, Altcoins Wait for ETF Catalysts Beyond price action, several upcoming macro and regulatory events could shape crypto’s next big move. From the Federal Reserve’s September meeting to critical ETF deadlines and stablecoin policy shifts, these decisions will determine whether capital flows back into Bitcoin and altcoins, or stays on the sidelines: FOMC Meeting (Sep 16–17): Markets price in an 88% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. This cut could boost Bitcoin and risk assets. October ETF Deadlines: SEC decisions on XRP ▼-1.99%,SOL ▼-1.03%, LTC ▼-2.66%, and ADA ▼-2.54% ETFs may validate altcoins as commodities, potentially sparking inflows similar to Bitcoin’s ETF boom. Stablecoin & Regulatory Shifts: Circle’s trust bank application and Spain’s early MiCA rollout could reshape liquidity and compliance across crypto markets. The FOMC meeting remains the near-term spark that could set the tone for the next leg of the market. 34 minutes ago Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Could Break $200K, Dismissing Four-Year Cycle By Fatima Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says Bitcoin’s trajectory will be shaped more by global liquidity than the traditional four-year cycle. In an interview with Kyle Chasse, Hayes argued that central banks and governments worldwide will keep printing money and buying bonds, fueling risk assets like Bitcoin over equities such as the S&P 500. He believes the market underestimates this liquidity effect, which could drive BTC to $150K, $175K, or even $200K by the end of the 2020s. While risks exist later in the cycle, Hayes insists the real upside has not yet arrived. EXPLORE: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, September 15 – Why Is Crypto Going Down? Bitcoin Loses $116K As Altcoins Lag Ahead of FOMC: Best Crypto To Buy? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The U.S. dollar may face significant turbulence this week. President Donald Trump recently stated in an interview that he expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a larger rate cut this week. Pressure from the White House comes ahead of a pivotal meeting where central bank officials are expected to ease policy for the first time in nine months. "I think it's time to act big," Trump told reporters on Sunday. "The time has come for the next step." Beyond Trump's remarks, markets have already priced in the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut, while some analysts do not rule out a more aggressive move. Federal funds futures indicate growing confidence in easing, which is putting downward pressure on the dollar against other major currencies. However, the Fed is likely to emphasize its independence from political pressure and may act more cautiously than the president desires. The dollar's reaction will also depend on the accompanying comments following the rate decision. If the Fed sends a clear signal of readiness for further easing, the dollar could decline more quickly. On the other hand, if the central bank stresses that the current rate cut is a one-off measure and not the start of a cycle, the dollar may receive temporary support. The Fed is expected to cut rates on September 17, in the context of a slowing labor market, persistent inflation, and Trump's unprecedented push to lower borrowing costs. The consensus forecast among economists is for a 25-basis-point reduction. It should be noted that Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell for months to cut rates and has repeatedly called for his resignation. Recent weak economic reports have fueled concerns that the labor market could slide into an even deeper slowdown, threatening consumer spending and economic growth. At the same time, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and could rise further if tariff policies increase costs, prompting some officials to worry about acting too hastily. Tensions between the White House and the Fed have reached a peak amid slowing economic growth and growing concerns over trade wars. Trump has repeatedly claimed that high interest rates restrain growth and that rate cuts are necessary for the U.S. to compete globally. Powell has consistently stressed the Fed's independence, stating that rate decisions are based on economic data, not political pressure. He has also noted that cutting rates while the labor market is strong and unemployment low could fuel inflation and destabilize the economy. In this context, markets remain highly sensitive to any hints of a possible Fed policy shift. It should also be noted that Powell's term expires in May 2026, and Trump is now considering his successor. The president has publicly named White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the three main candidates. Technical outlook for EUR/USD: buyers now need to secure the 1.1745 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 be possible. From there, the pair could reach 1.1813, though doing so without support from large players will be difficult. The ultimate target is 1.1866. In the event of a decline, I expect strong buying interest around 1.1700. If none emerges, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1665 low or consider long positions from 1.1630. Technical outlook for GBP/USD: pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3590. Only then will a move toward 1.3615 be possible, though breaking higher will be difficult. The ultimate target is 1.3645. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3525. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3495, with the potential to extend to 1.3458. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com