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The U.S. dollar continues to face problems, and the key question remains: how much more will it lose before the Federal Reserve meeting, and how much after. The main issue for investors this week is whether Fed officials will push back against market expectations of a series of rate cuts, which many economists believe could last into next year. Clearly, the Fed's decision on Wednesday will set the tone for global markets, including currencies, but it is not the only important event on the calendar. The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are also set to announce their monetary policy decisions. The spotlight will undoubtedly be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, where he is expected to comment on the latest inflation and employment data and hint at the future policy trajectory. Markets are watching closely for signals on when rate cuts might begin and how quickly they will proceed. Any divergence between market expectations and Fed guidance could lead to significant volatility. The recent slowdown in disinflation places the Fed in a difficult position: on one hand, maintaining tight monetary policy risks a recession, while on the other, easing too soon could spark a new wave of inflation. Powell's speech will be key to outlining the Fed's strategy. Investors expect him to reaffirm the regulator's readiness to cut rates further this year, but the question is how many cuts will be scheduled. At the same time, it will be important for Powell to avoid ambiguity in his statements so as not to fuel market uncertainty. Special attention will be paid to his comments on the employment outlook. If Powell voices concern about job losses—at a time when the labor market is experiencing its worst downturn since the pandemic—it could be seen as a signal that the Fed is prepared to accelerate rate cuts. Conversely, if he emphasizes labor market resilience and frames current problems as temporary, it may indicate the Fed intends to keep policy tight for longer than markets expect. Decisions by other major central banks will also be important. The Bank of Canada, given its similar economic dynamics to the U.S., may be pressured to follow the Fed's path. As for the Bank of Japan, its wait-and-see stance and yield curve control continue to preoccupy investors. Any signs of readiness to raise rates further could have significant consequences for global markets, given Japan's role as a major creditor. Overall, the week promises to be eventful and filled with uncertainty, as global central banks attempt to navigate complex economic conditions. Technical outlook for EUR/USD: buyers now need to secure control over 1.1745. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could move up to 1.1813, though doing so without support from large players will be challenging. The ultimate target stands at 1.1866. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying interest to appear near 1.1700. If none emerges, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of 1.1665 or consider long positions from 1.1630. Technical outlook for GBP/USD: pound buyers need to break above immediate resistance at 1.3590. Only then will they be able to target 1.3615, though breaking higher will be difficult. The ultimate target lies at 1.3645. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3525. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3495, with prospects of extending to 1.3458. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Demand for Bitcoin remains at a reasonably high level. Given that the weekend passed with no major corrections and that we have a Fed meeting and potential rate cuts ahead this week, the stage is set for further crypto market recovery and new local highs. Data from CryptoQuat support this theory. According to their report, whales continue to buy ETH and BTC actively. In fact, wallet balances holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have hit a record high. CryptoQuat notes that ETH is currently in one of its strongest cycles: institutional demand, staking, and on-chain activity are all approaching historic highs. The growth in whale balances—especially among those holding large amounts of Ethereum and BTC—indicates strong confidence in the long-term prospects of these assets. Institutional interest, backed by ETH staking opportunities, provides a steady inflow of capital and reduces volatility. Network activity, encompassing both DeFi and NFT segments, highlights Ethereum's utility and ongoing demand. However, even the most positive signals do not guarantee a smooth future. The crypto market remains susceptible to regulatory changes, macroeconomic factors, and sudden technological breakthroughs. While the CryptoQuat data strengthens the bullish outlook, pointing to large player consolidation and robust market growth, prudent skepticism and continuous market monitoring remain essential to protect against risks and maximize gains. For intraday crypto trading, I'll continue to look for major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum as opportunities for bullish medium-term plays, as the bull trend remains intact. Short-term trading strategies and conditions are outlined below. BitcoinBuy ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $116,800, targeting a rise to $117,800. Around $117,800, I'll exit longs and sell on the bounce. Before entering a breakout long, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario #2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $116,100 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown, aiming for a reversal back up to $116,800 and $117,800.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to sell Bitcoin at $116,100, targeting a fall to $114,900. Exit shorts and buy on the bounce at $114,900. Before a breakout short, confirm the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario #2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $116,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a move back down to $116,100 and $114,900. EthereumBuy ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry around $4,680, targeting a rise to $4,745. I'll exit longs and sell on the bounce at $4,745. Before a breakout long, confirm the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.Scenario #2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $4,636 if there's no market reaction to a breakdown, targeting reversals back up to $4,680 and $4,745.Sell ScenarioScenario #1: Plan to sell Ethereum at $4,636, targeting a drop to $4,582. Exit shorts and buy on the bounce at $4,582. Before a breakout short, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.Scenario #2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $4,680 if there's no follow-through on a breakout, targeting a reversal back down to $4,636 and $4,582.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 148.06 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and this decision proved correct as the pair failed to continue rising. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after last Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.4 points, versus economists' forecast for an increase to 58. This unexpected slump in American consumer sentiment reinforced the market's belief in the need for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The dollar, which had previously been supported by high rates, came under pressure as investors began doubting the strength of the US economy. The yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gained support in this environment of uncertainty. Future pair dynamics will depend on upcoming US economic data, Fed policy decisions, and actions by the Bank of Japan. Investors should closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 147.54 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 147.91 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.91, I plan to exit from longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter move from the level). The best opportunities to buy the pair will be on corrections and notable dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.35 level with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 147.54 and 147.91 can be expected. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a move below 147.35 (red line on the chart), which should quickly push the pair lower. The key sellers' target will be 147.05, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter move). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to drop from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.54 level with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 147.35 and 147.05 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3528 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The British pound rose against the dollar after last Friday's data showed a decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The unexpected drop in the index weakened the dollar and provided a boost for the pound. Markets reacted immediately, as investors revised their expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. No major fundamental data are expected from the UK today, which is likely positive for the pound. The absence of macroeconomic releases from the United Kingdom allows the market to focus on other factors influencing the pair's dynamics. This, in turn, reduces the likelihood of sharp fluctuations caused by unexpected data. With the prevailing upward trend, a neutral news background may support further strengthening of the pound, as speculative positions aimed at growth remain a priority. Market participants are likely to focus on news from the US and global trends influencing risk appetite. Any negative signals from the US economy or increasing geopolitical tensions could increase the pound's attractiveness. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at around 1.3573 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for growth to 1.3608 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3608, I plan to exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from the level). Strong growth in the pound can be expected if the uptrend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3557 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and cause a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3573 and 1.3608 can be expected. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3557 (red line on the chart), which should quickly send the pair lower. The main seller's target will be 1.3526, where I'll exit shorts and consider immediately opening longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement from the level). Pound sellers could become active at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3573 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This limits the pair's upside potential and triggers a reversal down. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3557 and 1.3526 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe first test of the 1.1712 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price occurred when the MACD entered the oversold area, enabling the implementation of buy scenario #2 and resulting in a 20-pip rise for the pair. Last Friday, the US dollar came under pressure due to an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This indicator, which reflects the public's outlook on economic conditions, fell to a level of 55 (versus a forecasted rise to 58), sparking concerns about a possible reduction in future consumer spending. This weighed on the dollar's position. Despite the temporary weakness, the long-term outlook for this indicator remains positive, and the dollar's dynamics in the coming days will be determined by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Today, only the eurozone trade balance and the Bundesbank's monthly report are due on the macro calendar. Even weak data are unlikely to trigger a major euro sell-off. Later, ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks will be in focus. If the trade balance figures show further deterioration, this may intensify concerns about the competitiveness of the European economy and its resilience to external shocks—especially following the US introduction of trade tariffs. Particular attention will be paid to energy import dynamics, which have been a significant drag on the eurozone's trade balance. The Bundesbank's monthly report, in turn, will provide a more detailed review of the German economy, the key growth engine for the whole region. Comments from the Bundesbank on inflation, interest rates, and economic prospects can influence short-term euro fluctuations, but are unlikely to bring about significant shifts in market sentiment. The main event of the day will undoubtedly be Christine Lagarde's speech. Investors will carefully watch her comments for signals regarding the ECB's further policy strategy. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2. Buy ScenarioScenario #1: Today, I will consider buying the euro around the 1.1738 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1772. At 1.1772, I plan to exit longs and possibly sell the euro in the opposite direction for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro upside should only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1722 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upwards. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1738 and 1.1772. Sell ScenarioScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1722 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1691, at which I will exit shorts and consider buying immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Downside pressure on the pair should return on weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1738 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and prompt a reversal downwards. Declines can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1722 and 1.1691. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought. Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold. Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas. Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Recent PEPE price performance has not lived up to the explosive rallies that the meme coin has become known by, slowing down over the last year. However, with the move toward the last quarter of the year, the meme coin’s luck looks to be turning after staging an over 10% rally over the weekend. The possibility of the PEPE price rally continuing is now even higher after the formation of a falling wedge pattern that points toward more bullish movements. PEPE Price Shows Bullishness With Falling Wedge Pattern A pseudonymous crypto analyst on the TradingView website has painted a rather bullish picture for the PEPE price in the near term. According to the analysis shared, the first sign of bullishness has been the emergence of a falling wedge pattern, something that indicates that the meme coin is incredibly bullish from here. As the crypto analyst explains, falling wedge pattern formations have historically been known as one of the better and reliable bullish reversal setups. Thus, it is expected that it would play out in a similar manner for the PEPE meme coin, eventually leading to double-digit price gains. One major thing that the falling wedge pattern indicates is that sellers are running out of steam. Once this happens, demand has time to pick up, and this leads to the first stage of the reversal, as seen over the weekend. As long as volume continues to hold up high, then this pattern could see a confirmation. Once confirmed, the next step is the PEPE price going on a major rally. This is where the real fun begins, because the falling wedge pattern signals the start of another breakout. As more investors pile into the meme coin, the possibility of this rally starting becomes higher. How High Will The Price Go? If the breakout is confirmed, then the crypto analyst is already calling this a high-reward trading opportunity for investors. It is expected that the PEPE price will rise above $0.000018 as a result of this move, which would mean an over 60% increase in the price. Furthermore, there is the possibility of a bullish continuation, and in this case, the price could see up to a 90% increase, and even double in the best-case scenario. However, a rally to an all-time high will remain elusive unless bullish momentum continues to rise and buyers are able to take full control of the price.

This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Overbought but bullish acceleration trend remains intact”, published last Tuesday, 9 September 2025. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have traded sideways and managed to hold above the US$3,600 short-term pivotal support highlighted in our previous report. The latest speculative positioning and flows data in the gold futures market and exchange-traded funds are net positive, in turn, supporting the current short-term bullish acceleration trend of Gold (XAU/USD) since the bullish breakout above its former all-time high of US$3,500 on 2 September 2025. Let’s examine these positioning and flow data in greater detail. Net long speculative positions in gold futures have not reached extreme levels Fig. 1: Commitments of Trader large speculators' net positioning in Gold futures as of 9 September 2025 (Source: Macro Micro) Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data as of 9 September 2025 (compiled by MacroMicro), the aggregate net long positions of large speculators in NYMEX gold futures, after offsetting the positions of commercial hedgers, have climbed to +535,115 contracts, extending a steady four-month increase from +354,079 on 29 April 2025 (see Fig. 1). Net speculative flows, primarily from hedge funds, are often contrarian indicators; elevated positioning can trigger an opposite move in prices if market data or news disappoints. However, with the current net long positioning still about 20% below the five-year high of +655,096 contracts recorded on 24 September 2024, the short-term bullish trend in Gold (XAU/USD) appears to have more room to run, as positioning has yet to reach levels that typically prompt profit-taking. Gold ETFs' net inflows have recovered from a 2-month low Fig. 2: Weekly cumulative Gold ETF flows as of 5 September 2025 (Source: Macro Micro) In addition to steady gold bullion purchases by central banks since 2022, institutional and retail demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has gained momentum since May 2025, further reinforcing investor appetite for the precious metal. Total regional gold ETF flows have recovered from a net outflow of -5.17 tonnes for the week ending 22 August 2025 to a net inflow of 36.49 tonnes for the week ending 5 September 2025 (see Fig. 2). An improvement in the cumulative weekly gold ETF flows suggests a pick-up in demand from institutions and retail investors, in turn, supporting the short to medium-term uptrend phases of Gold (XAU/USD) Let’s now examine the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of Gold (XAU/USD) and its key levels to watch ahead of this week’s key US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, latest economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 15 September 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bullish bias with a key short-term pivotal support at US$3,600 for Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$3,665/3,675 intermediate resistance increases the odds of another leg of bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$3,687, followed by US$3,725 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 3). Key elements The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel from its 22 August 2025 low, with its upper boundary of the ascending channel projected to come at US$3,725, and its lower boundary, now acting as a key intermediate support at US$3,600.The hourly MACD trend indicator has managed to find support at around the centreline, and it has now flashed out an impending bullish crossover signal. These observations suggest that the minor bullish acceleration phase for Gold (XAU/USD) remains intact.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the US$3,600 key short-term support on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish tone to trigger a deeper minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$3,561 and US$3,536. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

During the day, the US dollar ceded ground to the euro, the pound, and other risk assets at the end of last week. However, this did not lead to a major shift in the balance of power in the market. A sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index weakened the US dollar. The index, which tracks consumer expectations regarding the economy, fell to 55 points. This raised concerns about a potential decrease in consumer spending in the future, putting pressure on the dollar. Lower consumer confidence also heightened fears of a possible slowdown in US economic growth. Consumer spending is a key driver of the American economy, and its decline could negatively impact GDP. Today, the only notable data expected are the eurozone trade balance figures and the Bundesbank's monthly report. Later in the evening, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak, but she is unlikely to touch on monetary policy topics. Typically, the Bundesbank's monthly report provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the German economy, which is the engine of the entire eurozone. Traders will scrutinize comments on inflation, economic growth prospects, and the impact of external factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Special attention will be paid to the section on the state of the industrial sector and its outlook during the trade crisis, as this can give an idea of the future for the broader economy. Lagarde's speech will also attract attention. Investors are eager to hear clear signals from the ECB chief about future monetary policy, although, in my opinion, everything necessary was already said last week, so we're unlikely to hear anything new. If the data matches economists' expectations, it's best to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in much higher or lower than anticipated, the best option is a Momentum strategy. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):EUR/USDBuying a breakout above 1.1745 could lead to euro gains toward 1.1778 and 1.1813Selling on a break below 1.1710 could send the euro down to 1.1690 and 1.1660GBP/USDBuying a breakout above 1.3575 could push the pound toward 1.3600 and 1.3620Selling on a break below 1.3555 could send the pound down to 1.3525 and 1.3495USD/JPYBuying a breakout above 147.55 could drive the dollar up to 147.84 and 148.13Selling on a break below 147.30 could trigger a sell-off of the dollar to 146.95 and 146.60Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks): EUR/USDLook to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1744 if the price returns below this levelLook to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1719 if the price returns above this level GBP/USDLook to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3575 if the price falls back below this levelLook to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3542 if the price climbs back above this level AUD/USDLook to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6674 if the price returns below this levelLook to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6642 if the price returns above this level USD/CADLook to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3850 if the price falls back below this levelLook to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3827 if the price climbs back above this levelThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Monday, 15 September 2025] Today, USDX has a potential to weaken due to a Death Cross between the EMA(50) and EMA(200), and the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish area. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.00 2. Resistance. 1 : 97.79 3. Pivot : 97.63 4. Support. 1 : 97.42 5. Support. 2 : 97.26 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 97.42, there is potential for continued weakening towards 97.26. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.26 is broken and closed below, the next level to be tested could be 97.05. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens, breaks, and closes above 98.00 Technical Summary EMA(50) : 97.62 EMA(200): 97.68 RSI(14) : 39.41 Economic News Release Agenda: Today, there is only one economic data release from the United States: the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Crude Oil] – [Monday, 15 September 2025] Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bullish area, the position of the EMA(50) being below the EMA(200) could lead to weakness today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 65.00 2. Resistance. 1 : 63.80 3. Pivot : 62.74 4. Support. 1 : 61.54 5. Support. 2 : 60.48 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 61.54, #CL could move lower towards 60.48. Momentum Extension Bias: If 60.48 is broken and closed below, there is potential to test the 59.28 level. Invalidation Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The downside bias is restrained if #CL strengthens, breaks, and closes above 65.00. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 62.78 EMA(200): 62.90 RSI(14) : 59.70 Economic News Release Agenda: Today, there is only one economic data release from the United States: the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BNB price is gaining pace above the $920 zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for a move above the $950 level in the near term. BNB price started a fresh increase above the $900 and $920 levels. The price is now trading above $920 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $925 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair (data source from Binance). The pair must stay above the $910 level to start another increase in the near term. BNB Price Eyes More Gains BNB price formed a base above the $880 level and started a fresh increase, beating Ethereum and Bitcoin. There was a steady move above the $892 and $920 levels. The bulls even cleared the $935 resistance zone. A new all-time high was formed at $950 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $871 swing low to the $950 high. The price is now trading above $920 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $925 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $935 level. The next resistance sits near the $942 level. A clear move above the $942 zone could send the price higher. In the stated case, BNB price could test $950. A close above the $950 resistance might set the pace for a larger move toward the $965 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $1,000 handle in the near term. Downside Correction? If BNB fails to clear the $935 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $920 level. The next major support is near the $910 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $871 swing low to the $950 high. The main support sits at $900. If there is a downside break below the $900 support, the price could drop toward the $888 support. Any more losses could initiate a larger decline toward the $872 level. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for BNB/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BNB/USD is currently above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $925 and $910. Major Resistance Levels – $935 and $950.

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday—not in Germany, the UK, the EU, or the US. Recall that during the first two weeks of September, traders had a fairly rich flow of macroeconomic data at their disposal. Almost all of them showed that the US economy continues to deteriorate. Only GDP is rising, and that's artificially. How much longer it will keep growing on the back of Trump's trade war is unknown. In any case, market participants have a low opinion of the results delivered by the new US administration. Fundamental Events Analysis: The only fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, it's worth noting that the latest ECB meeting took place just this Thursday. No important decisions were made. The central bank hinted that the next key rate cut may not happen soon, as there are no reasons for it now. The central bank remains concerned about accelerating inflation due to the trade war, but it does not anticipate significant inflationary pressures in the medium term. There are no reasons to lower rates, since inflation remains around 2% and the risks are to the upside. The ECB will only resume monetary policy easing if inflation starts to slow below 2%. General Conclusions:During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may resume upward movement, but new buy signals are needed for this. For the euro, if it breaks through the 1.1737–1.1745 area, growth toward the 1.1808 target will continue. A bounce from 1.1737–1.1745 would allow considering shorts, but without a substantial decline. For the pound sterling, a bounce from 1.3529–1.3543 or a break above 1.3574–1.3590 would allow the opening of long positions, while consolidation below 1.3529–1.3543 would allow for shorts. In both cases, long positions are preferable. Monday may turn out to be quite a boring day with flat movement and low volatility. Key Rules for the Trading System:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend. Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also showed absolutely no interesting movement. Throughout the day, the pair was stuck between two areas: 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590. On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend persists, but at this point, it's not possible to draw a local ascending trendline, and the market is in no hurry to develop the uptrend. The British pound remains very close to its highs of the past several years, and there are plenty of reasons for the US dollar to fall. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, we have observed low volatility, which is the main reason for the lack of solid trending movement. On Friday, relatively important reports were published in the UK, but they attracted no one's interest. July GDP remained unchanged, while industrial production decreased by 0.9%. These data could have prompted a decline in the British pound, but the market preferred not to react at all. The US consumer sentiment report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, and it did—by about 20 pips. The whole day was a sideways movement. 5M Chart of GBP/USD On the 5-minute timeframe, four buy signals formed on Friday in the same 1.3529–1.3543 area. In each instance, the pair advanced 15–25 pips upward. Thus, it was extremely difficult to profit from any of these trades. Only in the first case did the price manage to reach the nearest target level of 1.3574, which was just 30 pips away. Flat is flat. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair shows signs of a renewed uptrend, and on higher timeframes, the upward trend remains. As we have said before, we see no grounds for the US dollar to grow in the medium term, so we expect further gains for the British currency. On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may try to continue moving north. However, at this time, it remains squeezed between the 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590 areas, with market volatility quite low. There will be no important events on Monday, so volatility may again be very weak. On the 5-minute timeframe, you can now trade around the following levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Monday, there are no interesting events or reports scheduled in either the UK or the US. Thus, traders will have little to react to during the day, and the pair's movements may again leave much to be desired. Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements on Friday. Only two reports throughout the day could have theoretically attracted traders' attention. In the morning, Germany released the second estimate of the consumer price index for August. Unsurprisingly, the second estimate matched the first, prompting no market reaction. In the second half of the day, the US Consumer Sentiment Index was released, which declined noticeably compared to August, from 58.2 points to 55.4 points. This report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, but it didn't. The day's total volatility was 45 pips, which eloquently speaks to traders' current willingness to participate in the market. Recall that low volatility has now been observed for about a month. It can't be said that there were no movements during this period, but in most cases, they were extremely weak. Currently, the uptrend remains on the hourly timeframe, as indicated by the trendline, but the dollar, despite having reasons, is in no hurry to keep falling. 5M Chart of EUR/USD On the 5-minute TF on Friday, two sell signals were formed, both bounces from the 1.1737-1.1745 area. Due to very low volatility, the target level of 1.1666 was not reached and did not even stand a chance of being fulfilled. Deals could only be closed at a profit manually. For both trades, you could have set the Stop Loss to breakeven to avoid any possible losses. How to Trade on Monday:On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has every chance to resume the uptrend that has been forming since the start of this year. Both the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds remain bad for the US dollar, so we still do not expect a strengthening of the American currency. In our view, as before, the US currency can only count on technical corrections. However, a consolidation below the trendline could trigger a new wave of technical declines in the pair. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair may continue a weak northward movement, as the trend remains upward. However, for new long positions, the 1.1737-1.1745 area must be overcome. The target is 1.1808. On the 5-minute TF, consider the following levels: 1.1198-1.1218, 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1737-1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the Eurozone, but we do not expect any significant statements from the head of the central bank. The ECB met just a couple of days ago, and Lagarde has already provided all the necessary information to the markets. Most likely, we are in for another "boring Monday." Core Trading System Rules:Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.Key Chart Elements:Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders. Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading. MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals. Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals. Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price gained pace for a move above the $3.120 resistance. The price is now correcting gains and might start another increase above $3.080. XRP price is consolidating gains and facing hurdles near the $3.080 resistance. The price is now trading below $3.060 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $3.080 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to rise if it stays above the $3.00 zone. XRP Price Eyes Upside Break XRP price managed to stay above the $3.00 level and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price climbed above the $3.050 and $3.120 resistance levels. The bulls even pumped the price above the $3.150 level. A high was formed at $3.1865 and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a drop below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.9365 swing low to the $3.186 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $3.080 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. However, the bulls are active above the $3.00 level. The price is now trading below $3.060 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls protect the $3.00 support, the price could attempt another increase. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $3.0620 level. The first major resistance is near the $3.080 level. A clear move above the $3.080 resistance might send the price toward the $3.120 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.180 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.250. More Downsides? If XRP fails to clear the $3.0620 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $3.00 level and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.9365 swing low to the $3.186 high. The next major support is near the $2.9350 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.9350 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.90. The next major support sits near the $2.880 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $3.00 and $2.9350. Major Resistance Levels – $3.0620 and $3.120.

On Friday and this morning, the euro quote remains within Thursday's range. Since September 8, the price has been coiling around the MACD indicator line, which is sloping downward. The Marlin oscillator is tending downward, even while in positive territory. The euro is under market pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. A similar sideways movement has been seen on the S&P 500 and government bond yields over the past week — markets are awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. Our previously stated forecast calls for a decline in the euro, since, along with a rate cut, the FOMC is also expected to send a hawkish signal — there will be no three cuts by year-end, and even a second cut is in question, as Trump's tariffs have not yet been absorbed by inflation. Target levels are indicated on the chart: 1.1632, 1.1495, 1.1392. The market may come alive tomorrow when ZEW economic sentiment data for the eurozone and US retail sales are released. On the four-hour chart, the price is moving within the 1.1700/48 range, formed by the MACD line and Friday's high. The Marlin oscillator forms a wedge pattern pointing downward, suggesting the price will attempt to stay below the MACD line (1.1700). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated above the MACD line. With the Marlin oscillator developing in the positive zone, the target at 1.3631 becomes relevant. However, this outlook may be deceptive, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. A downward movement is possible, even breaking below its lower boundary. A move and consolidation below the 1.3525 level would also mean consolidation below the MACD line, making the 1.3364 target realistic rather than a false one (as opposed to 1.3631). On the four-hour chart, the price remains within the range of the September 9–11 extremes and the MACD line (1.3493–1.3589), with upward pressure. However, the Marlin oscillator is not advancing (not growing), instead maintaining a wait-and-see stance on the zero neutral line (anticipating the Fed meeting). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the weekly chart, the price has reached the upper boundary of the descending price channel. From here, there are two options: either a breakout upward from the current levels with the possibility of medium-term growth, or a reversal downward from the current levels for a medium-term decline. A divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator suggests a higher probability of the downside scenario. On the daily chart, consolidation below the July peak (0.6627) will be the first signal of a reversal. The Marlin oscillator is already indicating further downside. A break above 0.6668 opens the way to growth (alternative scenario). Consolidation below the MACD line on the four-hour chart (0.6610) will be a confirming signal of a price reversal. The main driver for growth or decline will be the Fed's decision on monetary policy on September 17. We are waiting. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a fresh increase and climbed above $4,700. ETH is now correcting gains and might aim for another increase if it clears $4,685. Ethereum is now eyeing an upside break above the $4,650 zone. The price is trading above $4,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $4,660 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,650 and $4,685. Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Increase Ethereum price started a fresh increase after it formed a base above the $4,350 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,550 and $4,650 resistance levels. The price even climbed above $4,700. A high was formed at $4,765 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,268 swing low to the $4,765 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $4,660 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,650 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,685 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,700 level. A clear move above the $4,700 resistance might send the price toward the $4,750 resistance. An upside break above the $4,750 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,820 resistance zone or even $4,880 in the near term. Another Drop In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,685 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,550 level. The first major support sits near the $4,520 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,268 swing low to the $4,765 high. A clear move below the $4,520 support might push the price toward the $4,420 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,350 pivot level in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,270. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,550 Major Resistance Level – $4,685

The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight increase last week, but overall volatility remains low. The market is still in a wait-and-see mode. The US dollar has no real reasons to grow, except for occasional corrections. The British pound has no reason to rise either, but it does have a trump card—the falling dollar. The British problems date back to 2016, when Brexit began. If you look at the current state of the British economy—issues with bonds and the budget, declining living standards, and so on—it's natural to wonder: why is the pound even rising at all? The pound rises because the dollar is falling, and there's no one else to strengthen it. The choices are limited. This week, the pound might continue its undeserved upward march. In the UK, unemployment data will be released (currently 4.7%, higher than in the US, where the Federal Reserve is sounding the alarm about it), the consumer price index (currently 3.8%, forecast 3.9%, higher than in the US, where the Fed is likewise worried), and there will also be a Bank of England (BoE) meeting—after which the next monetary policy easing is likely a long way off. Unless the labor market, as in the US, keeps weakening. Since the BoE is unlikely to lower rates even once this year, and the Fed is expected to cut at least twice, we should expect the pair just to drift upward. But the main point isn't even the actions of the Fed and BoE through year-end. The main point is market expectations for Fed and BoE policy for the next year or two. Right now, it's obvious to everyone that US rates will only head lower. If the Fed remains independent from Trump, the process will be gradual. If not, it could be rapid. Thus, the Fed will cut rates while the BoE keeps theirs steady. Should we expect the dollar to strengthen? As a bonus at the end of the week, August retail sales have shown a drop in seven of the past twelve months. In the US, apart from the potentially surprise-filled Fed meeting, there will be reports on retail sales, industrial production, the construction sector, and real estate. All these are interesting releases, but they can only trigger local market moves. As we've said before, there are currently global factors that prevent us from counting on US dollar growth. And that's not even mentioning the trade war—a battle Trump could lose in the Supreme Court as soon as November, but he's unlikely to give in without a fight. Therefore, whatever the outcomes of the Fed and BoE meetings or the data releases this week, we continue to expect only further growth for the pair. Technical corrections are possible, but for those, only technical analysis should be used. Right now, the pound is attempting to break through several recent local highs clustered at about the same level—and beyond that lies a high not seen in the past three years. The average volatility of GBP/USD over the last five trading days is 70 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this is considered "average." On Monday, September 14th, we expect the pair to stay within the range defined by levels 1.3485 and 1.3625. The linear regression channel's upper band is tilted upward, indicating a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator has again entered the oversold area, warning once more of a renewed upward trend. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3550 S2 – 1.3489 S3 – 1.3428 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3611 R2 – 1.3672 R3 – 1.3733 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair is once again aiming to continue its upward trend. In the medium term, Donald Trump's policies will likely continue to pressure the dollar, so we do not expect any growth from the greenback. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3611 and 1.3672 remain highly relevant as long as the price stays above the moving average. If the price drops below the moving average, small short positions can be considered on purely technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrective moves, but for a trend reversal and strengthening real signs of an end to the global trade war or other major positive factors are needed. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement during the upcoming week. Making such a forecast is very easy, even for a beginner. Just open the daily chart and see where (and how fast) the pair is moving in 2025. After all, shouldn't trading follow the trend? So even if the euro dips a little next week, it won't change the overall outlook—there's simply no reason to expect dollar strength. Remember, there are several global reasons for the dollar's decline. The first is that the "dollar trend" lasted 16–17 years, and everyone knows that everything in the economy is cyclical. For example, from 2000 to 2008, there was an "euro trend," from 1992 to 2000, a "dollar trend," and from 1985 to 1992, the euro rose. So the dollar trend has already lasted twice as long as previous cycles. You could argue it ended in 2022. The second global factor is the sharp shift in US policy. With Donald Trump coming to power a second time, US policy became highly protectionist, with Trump seeking to establish a sort of hidden dictatorship. Put simply, America stopped being a country for everyone, a destination for investment, a "dream country." Every month, the US becomes less appealing to foreigners and foreign investment. Naturally, this weighs on the world's main currency—the dollar. The third factor is the Federal Reserve. Remember, the Fed is, in a sense, the world's central bank—the main central bank for the global economy's key currency. The Fed is supposed to be an independent body, but in 2025–2026, it may lose its independence and become entirely subordinate to Trump. Trump has no interest in maintaining the value of the dollar or preventing its depreciation; on the contrary, he wants a cheaper dollar so America can export more, not just import. The cheaper the dollar, the easier it is to sell. Of course, "trade deals at gunpoint" might work in the short term, but economics is more than just the trade balance. Even now, we see the economy is growing, but almost all other indicators are declining. Next week, the Eurozone will feature three Lagarde speeches and a few minor data releases. Don't expect anything major from Lagarde, as the European Central Bank just met last week and provided all the necessary info. Therefore, EU fundamentals and macro factors will have virtually no impact on the euro. There's also an important medium-term factor: the policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. The dollar has collapsed in 2025, even during months when the ECB was cutting rates and the Fed was holding them high. Now, the ECB is finished easing, while the Fed is just beginning. The average EUR/USD volatility over the last five sessions (as of September 14) is 64 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1671 and 1.1799 on Monday. The major linear regression channel is pointing up, signaling an ongoing uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area three times, warning of resuming upward movement, and a bullish divergence has also formed, pointing to further growth. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1658 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1780 R2 – 1.1841 Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD can renew its uptrend. The US dollar is still under strong pressure from Trump's policies, and he has no intention of "stopping here." The dollar rallied as much as it could (not for long), but now it appears to be time for another prolonged decline. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts with a target of 1.1658 can be considered, strictly for correction purposes. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant, with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1799 for trend continuation. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also traded sideways with low volatility. In the UK, GDP and industrial production reports came out that day, but they didn't particularly interest the market. At best, the reaction was around 20 pips. So, technically, nothing changed on the hourly timeframe. Next week, at least two events could seriously shake the market. It's obvious the Bank of England will take a pause and keep the key rate unchanged. It's also clear that the Federal Reserve will cut the key rate by 0.25%. However, the Fed could guide the market on how many more cuts to expect for the rest of the year. Currently, one more rate cut is expected in the last two meetings. The more dovish the signals from the Fed, the bigger the potential dollar drop. The dollar may fall even without overtly "dovish" messaging from the Fed because policy is already shifting towards easing, while the BoE stands pat. The uptrend continues, as shown by the trendline. A move below the trendline shouldn't be a shock—it would still be just a correction. On the 5M chart, Friday's moves are hardly worth analyzing, as the entire day was flat. The 1.3525–1.3548 support zone held, but traders showed no desire to push lower. Although several buy signals formed formally, the price overall moved sideways. COT Report COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders) cross frequently and generally stay near zero. Right now, they're almost at the same level, which signals roughly equal amounts of long and short positions. The dollar is still falling due to Trump's policies, so market maker demand for the pound is not so important right now. The trade war will continue, one way or another, for a long time. The Fed will lower rates at least once more within the next year, so dollar demand will keep falling. The latest COT report shows "Non-commercial" closed 1,200 BUY contracts and 700 SELL contracts. So, the net position decreased by 500 contracts during the reporting week. The pound shot up in 2025, but the cause is clear—Donald Trump's policy. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could rally, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't really matter whether the net position in the pound rises or falls—the dollar's net position keeps shrinking, usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly chart, GBP/USD is ready to form a new uptrend—that's what it's currently doing. Fundamentals and the macro backdrop are still weak for the dollar, so there's no reason to expect a medium-term dollar rally. A dip is theoretically possible this week, but as things stand, the fundamentals are lined up for more dollar weakness. September 15 levels: 1,3125, 1,3212, 1,3369–1,3377, 1,3420, 1,3525–1,3548, 1,3615, 1,3681, 1,3763, 1,3833, 1,3886. Senkou Span B (1.3460) and Kijun-sen (1.3543) can also be signal sources. Set your Stop Loss to break even if the price goes 20 pips in your favor. Ichimoku lines can shift during the day, so allow for that with signals. On Monday, neither the US nor the UK has key reports or events scheduled. So Friday's flat trading could quietly carry over into Monday with the same slow volatility and low trading enthusiasm. Trading RecommendationsWe believe Monday's rally may continue, as almost all factors point to it right now. The target is 1.3615. We expect the pound's rally to persist above that level as well. Volatility may remain low. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair showed ultra-low volatility on Friday. The day's macroeconomic backdrop was quite weak, and traders had already had plenty of diverse information over the week to keep the uptrend intact. The uptrend did persist, but traders were clearly in no hurry to buy more. There may be several reasons. First, traders may be waiting for the Fed meeting—though in our view, everything is already quite clear about that event. Second, the market may be uncertain about the continuation of the trade war, since the Supreme Court could block Trump's tariffs. Third, the market is watching for new Trump moves regarding FOMC members, since the US president lost the lawsuit over Lisa Cook, but has already filed another appeal. All these factors may be holding back the dollar's decline. Once these factors that are propping up the dollar disappear, the growth of EUR/USD should resume. On Friday, Germany released an unimportant (second estimate) inflation report for August, and in the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index printed a weak result, but the market had no intention of trading actively that day. The 5-minute chart clearly shows the pair ranging in a flat market with low volatility all day. The only signal worth noting was a bounce from 1.1750. The Kijun-sen line was ignored due to the flat. COT Report The latest COT report (as of September 9) shows the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time, with bears only barely taking the upper hand at the end of 2024, and quickly losing it. Since Trump took office as US President, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar will keep declining, but current events globally do point in that direction. We still see no fundamental reasons for euro strength, but plenty are supporting the dollar's drop. The global long-term downtrend remains, but what does the last 17 years' price action matter now? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may rally, but recent events show that won't happen anytime soon. Potential loss of Fed independence is another major pressure point for the US currency. The red and blue lines of the indicator keep pointing to a persistent "bullish" trend. In the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-commercial group rose by 2,400 contracts, while shorts fell by 3,700. Thus, the net position increased by 6,100 contracts, which isn't a significant change. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues a not-very-strong uptrend. A bounce from the trendline alongside the US inflation report has sparked another move higher. The pair still spends most of its time in the 1.1615–1.1750 range, but there is an upward bias. There remain plenty of bearish factors for the dollar, but market activity has been low this past month. September 15 trading levels: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, plus the Senkou Span B (1.1660) and Kijun-sen (1.1721) lines. The Ichimoku lines may shift during the trading day, so keep that in mind when using signals. Remember to set your Stop Loss to breakeven if price moves 15 pips in your favor—this will guard against possible losses if the signal is false. Monday in the Eurozone features the first of three Lagarde speeches this week. No significant remarks are expected from the ECB chief that could impact the euro, since last week's meeting already provided all the needed information to the market. Trading RecommendationsOn Monday, the pair could continue moving north, but must first overcome the key 1.1750–1.1760 area. If that happens, long positions become relevant, aiming for 1.1846–1.1857. A bounce from 1.1750–1.1760 could trigger a new correction. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price is showing positive signs above $115,000. BTC is now consolidating and might rise further if it clears the $116,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $115,000 zone. The price is trading near $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $116,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,200 zone. Bitcoin Price Holds Gains Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $112,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $113,500 and $114,200 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push the price above $115,000 and $116,000. The price traded as high as $116,743 and recently started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below $116,000. The price even spiked below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $116,743 high. Bitcoin is now trading near $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $116,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $116,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $116,200 level. The next resistance could be $116,750. A close above the $116,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,800. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $116,200 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,900 level. The first major support is near the $113,750 level or the 50% Fib level of the recent move from the $110,815 swing low to the $116,743 high. The next support is now near the $113,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $112,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $110,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $115,000, followed by $113,750. Major Resistance Levels – $116,200 and $116,500.

Donald Trump never ceases to surprise with his persistence and is ready to use any measure to force Kyiv and Moscow to sign a truce. The American president views Russia's continued war effort as enabled by its steady cash flow, mainly from oil and gas exports. Thus, Trump wants to cut off this dollar flow to Russia, so the Kremlin won't have the means to continue fighting. Frankly, it's hard to judge how effective such measures would be, especially since Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that sanctions will not force them to abandon their objectives. Yet Trump's new tariffs are also under question. The US president not only wants to impose additional tariffs on India and China but also wants the European Union to adopt similar tariffs. In other words, Trump seeks Europe's support in confronting China, Russia, and India, despite previously imposing tariffs on the EU and signing a deal that imposes significant obligations on Europe, with almost none on the US. Trump continues to extract "benefits" wherever he can. If Europe refuses to impose tariffs against China and India, Trump can always say he "did everything possible to end the war, but Europe was against it." If tariffs are introduced in some form, the American budget gets more revenue. As is often the case, the situation is complicated and ambiguous, but all I see is Trump's powerlessness in this matter—just like with the Fed. I have no doubt he'll keep pressuring the FOMC, China, India, and Russia, because retreat makes no sense. If he steps back, what does America lose? Nothing. But Trump will be seen as a leader who promised but couldn't deliver. This extends to economics and his would-be peacekeeper role; someone else could end up with the Nobel Peace Prize. That's why I'm sure both these storylines will develop further. Wave Picture for EUR/USDBased on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com