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In recent weeks, the market has entered a state of relative calm. This is clearly reflected in the US dollar, which, despite everything, is in no hurry to keep declining. I can't say we're seeing a classic sideways trend or a change in the wave pattern, but market activity has dropped, price swings are small, and there is no mass dollar selloff as before. This could be explained by the uncertainty over what to expect from the FOMC over a one-year horizon (due to the complicated situation involving Donald Trump), and because the US president hasn't recently announced or implemented new tariffs. Trump's attention is now entirely focused on trying to stop the conflict in Ukraine. The White House leader still wants to be the world's chief peacemaker and is putting all his effort into ending the war. Unfortunately, Trump's idea of "effort" means threats, blackmail, and tariffs—not actual compromise or solutions satisfying both sides. This week, Trump announced his readiness to introduce sweeping new tariffs against India and China in response to their purchases of energy from Russia. According to Trump, these measures will push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward negotiations. After the memorable (some say historic) Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, talks stalled—and there's been no real progress. As I've written before, the problem may not be so much Trump as it is the stances of Kyiv and Moscow. A lot of diverse information emerges about each side's conditions for resolution. Sometimes, two politicians from the same side voice completely different demands or hint at varied compromises at the talks. Overall, the situation seems as follows. Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw troops from territories not even occupied yet, demands demilitarization, "denazification," a change of government in Kyiv, a reduction of the Ukrainian army, and guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO. Kyiv wants to keep its current military strength, asks for international security guarantees, wants to join the EU, and, at best, is willing to freeze the conflict along the current front line but refuses to recognize all occupied territories as Russian. As you can see, the sides are worlds apart in their requirements, and not even Trump can bridge such a gap. Wave Picture for EUR/USDBased on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In previous outlooks, I concluded that the fate of both major pairs once again largely depends on the news flow from the United States. And this isn't just about the events listed in the classic forex calendars, but also the developments surrounding the Trump vs. Fed standoff, the trade war, and the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Still, for now, these events are not having a strong direct impact on the FX market. The key event will be the Federal Reserve meeting, even if the decision is already priced in. Nobody in the market doubts that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points for the first time since last year. However, labor market weakness is intensifying dovish expectations among traders—this time with good reason. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of three rate cuts before year-end is 74%. This means market participants fear serious labor market "cooling" and expect decisive action from the Fed. Personally, I find it unclear how the Fed will manage inflation, which will inevitably rise even further if there are three rate cuts. But that's precisely what Jerome Powell should clarify. Powell may hint at two rounds of easing, something FOMC policymakers have spoken about for a while. That would signal the Fed remains focused on the labor market, but doesn't plan to let inflation get out of hand. The alternative scenario is that Powell emphasizes the labor market's weakness and importance, which the market could interpret as a signal for three cuts by year-end. What happens in 2026 is anyone's guess, since no one knows yet what the FOMC's composition will be. All in all, three rate cuts would give the market a fresh reason to reduce demand for the US dollar—precisely what's expected according to the current wave count. Hints at only two rounds of easing could enable the dollar to stay in the same range it's traded for the past several months. Wave Picture for EUR/USDBased on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fate of the British pound, like that of the euro, is mainly out of its own hands. Right now, almost everything on the market depends on how investors feel about the dollar—and in 2025, that sentiment is strongly negative. If this market mood persists through year-end, demand for the pound will only continue to grow. Notably, the current wave pattern has remained unchanged for a long time and still suggests a bullish segment is unfolding. The new week brings the Bank of England meeting, which should not be taken lightly. In recent meetings, what mattered most was the mood of the MPC Committee—rather than the specific decision made or not made. The BoE is almost certain to leave the interest rate at 4%. It's assumed that 8 out of 9 MPC members will vote for no change, with one voting for a cut. The real reaction in the market will depend on exactly how many actually support a cut versus holding steady. Recent inflation and unemployment reports suggest that further monetary easing by the BoE is unwarranted. Inflation in the UK has more than doubled over the last year, so the Bank needs to pause before easing policy further. However, even two or three votes for a rate cut (even if the overall decision doesn't change) could play a mean trick on the pound, though I do not expect a dramatic drop in demand. The general news backdrop and wave count oppose a deep fall. Also worth noting is that the inflation report is due the day before the BoE meeting. Consumer prices are expected to rise even faster—3.9% in August (from just 1.7% a year ago). With such numbers, how can anyone talk about cutting rates? Unemployment data is also out a day earlier, and since August last year, the rate has increased by 0.7%. In reality, with high unemployment, the BoE would want to ease policy further, but the jobless rate is not spiking as fast as inflation. That's why, for the MPC, inflation will remain the top priority and must be brought under control urgently. Wave Picture for EUR/USD Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro continues to rest on its laurels as the US dollar declines. The euro doesn't even have to do anything to attract investors and traders — market participants are fleeing the dollar like the plague, but money can't just float in the air; it needs to take the form of some currency. How many real alternatives to the dollar are there in today's world? The euro, the pound, and, at best, the yen and the franc. Thus, the main beneficiaries in 2025 are currencies that aren't even making any real effort. Everything in the FX market now hinges on a simple question: Will the US dollar keep falling? If yes, the euro and pound will continue to rise. If the dollar begins to strengthen (which requires at least some justification), then the bull run in the euro and pound will pause — at least for a while. This is why it's so crucial for market participants to focus on how things develop in the US, rather than in Europe or the UK. Frankly, are the British and European economies really strong enough that their currencies deserve this much demand? The answer, I think, is obvious. This doesn't mean we should ignore European news, events, or reports — but there will be few of them next week anyway. In the coming five days, Christine Lagarde will speak three times, but the European Central Bank chief may talk about far more than just monetary policy. Only ECB policy matters to the market. Last week's ECB Governing Council meeting confirmed for everyone that the rate-cutting cycle is now over. No surprise — it was widely expected. Inflation in the EU is hovering around 2%, neither up nor down. Hence, further monetary policy changes will only happen if inflation strays from that 2% mark. If CPI rises faster than the ECB wants, expect rate hikes — bullish for the euro. If prices rise less than 2% a year, the ECB might cut rates, but the euro will not mind. In short, neither ECB actions nor Lagarde's speeches can cause the euro much trouble right now. Wave Picture for EUR/USD Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The upcoming week promises to be volatile and informative. The central event will be the September Federal Reserve meeting, whose outcome will overshadow all other fundamentals. Let's first review the key macroeconomic reports for EUR/USD that will be released in the coming days. On Monday, the US will publish the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, based on a survey of New York Fed district manufacturers. After two months of growth, it's expected to fall to 4 points, signaling a fading of the momentum seen in July and August. For dollar bulls, the index must not return to negative territory, especially with the ISM Manufacturing Index (in contraction since March) in the background. During the European session on Tuesday, the ZEW indices will be released. Last month, these indicators showed negative dynamics, and the trend should persist in September. In particular, German business sentiment is expected to fall to 26.4 points (down from 34.7 in August). The eurozone-wide index should also decline, expected at 20.3 (last month: 25.1). If readings meet forecasts (i.e., aren't much worse), the market may ignore the release. Recall that after the latest European Central Bank meeting, the central bank made it clear it will keep a wait-and-see stance amidst accelerating eurozone inflation, so a slowdown in ZEW is unlikely to soften the ECB's position. During Tuesday's US session, retail sales data will be released. After growing 0.9% in June, July sales increased only 0.5%. For August, an even smaller +0.2% is expected. If the print is negative, the dollar will come under significant pressure, as this would signal cooling demand. Even the forecasted figure is negative for the greenback, since the downward trend signals consumer caution, rising savings, and/or expense shifting. On Wednesday, the US will report building permits data. In August, this remained in negative territory at -2.8% y/y, putting pressure on the dollar. Further negative numbers are anticipated for September (down to -3.5%). This is an important housing and macro indicator, so a "red" release will put additional pressure on the dollar, especially if the accompanying new housing starts report, released the same day, is also negative. In August, housing starts are forecast to drop to 1.3%, after a previous 5.2% rise in July. On Thursday, all eyes will be on the weekly initial jobless claims. Last week, the figure unexpectedly jumped to 263,000 (the highest since April 2023). Forecasts suggest it will drop to 245,000 this week (still very high). If, contrary to forecasts, the figure holds or climbs, the dollar will feel significant pressure, since this would indicate continued, sharp cooling in the US labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, also out Thursday, could add volatility. In August, it fell to -0.3. For September, a mild rise to 1.4 is expected. For dollar bulls, it is important that this indicator at least leaves negative territory. On Friday, Germany releases the Producer Price Index (PPI)--the most important EUR/USD report of the day. This inflation gauge may supplement the recent German CPI data: German annual CPI accelerated to 2.2% y/y (the highest since July), and the harmonized index rose to 2.1% y/y. PPI is expected to increase by 0.1% m/m. Annually, the index should remain negative but show an upward trend (-0.9% after -1.5%). However, all these releases will be eclipsed by the main event: the September 16-17 Fed meeting, where the central bank is all but certain to cut the rate by 25 basis points. This scenario is the central case and is already priced in. The main intrigue is the tone of the statement and Jerome Powell's comments. After a weak August non-farm, dovish expectations have risen sharply. For example, the odds of an extra 25-point cut in October now stand at 80% (CME FedWatch), and odds for another 25-point cut in December are at 74%. In my opinion, these expectations are too high; if the September meeting outcome is "not dovish enough," EUR/USD may come under pressure even despite an actual 25 bp cut. Chair Jerome Powell typically tries to maintain a balanced tone, and it is unlikely he would promise further rate cuts right after delivering one. Such an outcome would likely be negative for EUR/USD bulls, as overblown dovish expectations could backfire, both literally and figuratively. It's worth noting that the risk of a "hawkish cut" is already weighing on EUR/USD: this is why the pair failed to test the 1.18 handle last week despite supportive fundamentals. Price oscillated between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands on the daily chart (1.1670-1.1760), and will likely remain in this range until the Fed's decision is published. If the Fed does not surprise markets with an ultra-dovish message, EUR/USD could see a retracement toward the 1.16 handle. Bottom line: all focus on the Fed. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The case concerning Donald Trump's tariffs has reached the US Supreme Court. Initially, the lawsuit brought by 12 Democratic governors and several private businesses was heard by the International Trade Court, which handed down a clear verdict: the tariffs were illegal. Donald Trump immediately appealed, and the case went to the US Court of Appeals, which also decided unequivocally—Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs on 185 countries. Yet Trump did not give up and requested that the Supreme Court review the case. The hearing is scheduled for November 9, which means the tariffs will certainly remain in place until that date. Donald Trump cites the 1977 Emergency Powers Act, claiming this law allows him to impose "reciprocal tariffs," though in fact, these are unilateral. The US President believes many countries are "suffocating" American exports by imposing various duties, taxes, and tariffs—all the while benefiting from the US economy. Trump insists he is simply restoring fairness by enacting counter-tariffs. However, many disagree with the President, and the Emergency Powers Act does not directly authorize imposing tariffs on entire countries. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already stated that the probability of the court issuing a negative ruling is 40–50%, and such a decision would be disastrous for the US budget and economy. First, all illegally collected tariffs would have to be refunded to those who paid them, returning the US to the budget deficits everyone had become used to. Second, the White House would lose its main lever of pressure over other countries—"tribute" payments. Trump recognizes the US market as the world's richest, leveraging this advantage to achieve US objectives on the global stage. If the court finds all presidential tariffs illegal, the trade war is over. Of course, the Trump team would attempt to restore tariffs via other laws, which also do not explicitly ban such actions. But those attempts could end the same way. November will be decisive. For the dollar, it would be very positive if the Supreme Court in Washington ruled to revoke all tariffs. Otherwise, expect another drop in demand for the US currency. Wave Picture for EUR/USDBased on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Donald Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Federal Reserve will hold its fifth meeting this year. At the previous four, monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, despite market expectations for a rate cut stretching back to last year. However, let me remind you that FOMC members regularly comment on their views of the economy and monetary policy outlook. So, no market participant can say that FOMC members gave false hope—since the start of this year, Fed officials have consistently said the base scenario for 2025 is two rounds of easing. One more rate cut is planned for next year, and another for 2027. Also, remember that once per quarter, the so-called "dot plot" is published, which visualizes all FOMC participants' expectations. These have also consistently shown two rounds of easing for 2025. So this remains the base case and should be the basis for your assumptions. In September, the Fed will almost certainly decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Some may think this is too little, considering four months of a cooling labor market and rising unemployment. However, recall that Jerome Powell remains Fed Chair, and Donald Trump's influence on Fed decisions is limited to just 2–3 committee members. Therefore, rest assured, the decision on September 17 will not be made under political pressure. Powell and his colleagues see the same statistics as all market participants. They cannot ignore rising inflation, so no one will rush to cut rates. The Fed has two main mandates—price stability and full employment. If the labor market needs lower rates but inflation calls for keeping them steady, they will have to balance both objectives. That's why I believe the Fed will stick to its base scenario by year-end, with exactly as many rounds of easing as planned earlier in the year. No doubt, this scenario has long been priced in, but the US dollar remains in a shaky position, so demand for it could still keep declining. Wave Picture for EUR/USDBased on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop its upward trend segment. The wave structure still completely depends on the news flow regarding Trump's decisions, as well as the external and internal politics of the new Administration. The wave's target may reach the 1.25 area. Given the consistent news environment, I continue to consider long positions, targeting levels near 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and above. Wave Picture for GBP/USD The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may see plenty of shocks and reversals, which could notably impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains unchanged. The upward trend segment's targets are near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. My Key Analytical Principles: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and tend to change.If you are not confident about the market situation, it's better to stay out.There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not neglect protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum (ETH) stands out with one of the best price performances from last week as a general bullish sentiment swept across the crypto market. During this period, the dominant altcoin gained by 9.06% with its prices briefly entering the $4,700 price range. As the majority of investors hold green positions, on-chain data support price movements to remain bullish, albeit only for the short term. Ethereum MVRV Suggests Positive Momentum, Eyes On 2.4 Barrier Prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has recently shared a potentially impactful on-chain analysis on the Ethereum market. Using data from Glassnode, Kesmeci has observed that the Ethereum MVRV ratio has recently reached 1.97, edging closer to the historically significant 2.4 bearish threshold. For context, the Market Value To Realized Value ratio compares an asset’s current market value to the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain. A rising MVRV typically indicates growing unrealized profits among holders, while extreme levels can suggest overheated conditions where profit-taking may trigger corrections. Therefore, at 1.97, Ethereum’s MVRV suggests that investors are presently sitting on substantial unrealized profits. However, Kesmeci explains that the 2.40 zone is historically associated with market excess. This is because past cycles have shown that when the ratio surpasses 2.40, traders begin to take significant profits, resulting in potential price pullbacks. Interestingly, there is even a more critical threshold at 3.20, which Kesmeci has described as a “very, very hot” zone, i.e, levels where market euphoria has often peaked. This is seen during bull runs in 2017 and 2021 when the ratio spiked far above the 3.20 mark, coinciding with Ethereum’s dramatic price rallies and subsequent corrections. With the present MVRV at 1.97, Kesmeci’s analysis suggests Ethereum’s positive momentum remains in a safe zone, and market enthusiasts may yet anticipate further price gains for the time being. However, considering the present high levels of bullishness, investors should be on alert for a potential MVRV cross above 2.40, which is expected to induce significant selling pressure. Ethereum Market Overview At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,665, reflecting a minor decline of 0.2% in the past 24 hours. However, the prominent altcoin is posting significant gains on larger timeframes with price increases of 8.75% and 3.40% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively. This performance suggests that Ethereum’s broader uptrend remains intact, even as it faces short-term fluctuations. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s daily trading volume has now declined by 14.42% indicating a temporary cooling in market activity, even as underlying momentum continues to support the asset’s upward trajectory.

Solana (SOL) has emerged as a major headliner following an impressive 20.89% gain over the last week. Solana’s price now sits comfortably within the $240 price range and is only 18.05% away from its present all-time high at $294. Interestingly, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has noted a positive effect of SOL’s recent price surge, which points to a sustained price rally. SOL Surges Above Key $205 Resistance: Fibonacci Levels Point Toward $362 In an X post on September 13, Martinez shares an in-depth technical analysis of the Solana price structure, which shows significant potential for a prolonged uptrend. Notably, SOL’s price gain from last week resulted in a breakout from a key ascending triangle formation, signaling strong bullish momentum that projects to higher mid-term targets. Looking at the chart below, the latest price surge effectively lifted Solana above the multi-month resistance zone near $205, where price had consolidated between April and August. It is clearly observed that breaking above this resistance, combined with the sustained higher lows that formed the ascending triangle, points to a classic bullish continuation pattern. Notably, the introduction of the Fibonacci extension levels provides more insight into the bullish potential of this recent breakout. The immediate price target presently lies at the 1.272 Fibonacci extension around $250, followed by the 1.414 extension near $277. However, if momentum continues, Solana could reach further upside levels, around $321 (1.618 extension) and the ultimate mid-term target at $362, which corresponds with the 1.786 extension. On the downside, the $205 breakout zone now serves as critical support. Holding above this level is crucial to maintaining the bullish outlook, as a decisive break below it could open the door for a retest of lower Fibonacci retracement zones, particularly around $176 or $156. However, the rising trendline that has supported price action since April adds another layer of structural support for bulls. Solana Price Outlook At the time of writing, Solana is trading at $246, reflecting a modest 1.67% gain over the past 24 hours. However, trading volume has declined sharply by 27.53%, currently standing at $7.49 billion. According to analysts at Coincodex, investor sentiment toward Solana remains broadly bullish, even as the Greed & Fear Index sits at a neutral 52. Their short-term outlook suggests limited price movement, with the asset projected to remain around $247 for the next month. Looking further ahead, analysts expect Solana to climb to $264 over the next three months, highlighting steady but moderate growth expectations. Nevertheless, with a market cap of $131.65 billion, Solana continues to rank as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency in the world.

Gold prices are poised to continue their upward momentum and move “significantly” higher due to a confluence of macroeconomic and political dynamics, Sprott Asset Management says. In its latest precious metals report written by market strategist Paul Wong, the firm specifically sees inflation risk as a primary driver of gold prices, as the full impact of US tariffs has yet to set in. “With tariffs taking effect, the cost of goods is expected to rise, especially as post-tariff inventory reaches consumers. This inflationary pressure typically boosts demand for gold, which serves as a hedge against purchasing power erosion,” Wong wrote. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding US interest rates offers further support for gold, Wong said. The Federal Reserve, which is expected to deliver its first rate cut since January next week, is facing sustained pressure from US President Donald Trump to be more aggressive in cutting rates. These potential rate cuts — combined with inflationary pressure — would cause the real interest rate to decline, an environment that is historically favorable for gold, he explained. A third and final factor is political instability, which has driven investors toward gold since Trump took office this year. His recent attacks on the Fed have introduced additional institutional uncertainty and risk, and gold tends to perform well in such climates, Wong wrote. Eroding dollar A potential end of US central bank’s independence would create the scenario that aligns with what Sprott’s analysts call a “debasement trade” — where a weakening dollar would drive investors toward hard assets like gold. A cheaper dollar would boost inflation, inflate away debt and undermine the real return on US assets, while stablecoins backed by T-bills would dilute the currency’s scarcity premium, Wong said. Under this condition, the current dollar-centric global financial system will likely become less sustainable. Using the dollar as a store of value forces the US to run persistent deficits, undermining its industrial base, a situation that is currently politically unviable, he added. As a result, the store of value function could migrate to a neutral reserve asset like gold, evident in the rampant buying of bullion by global central banks. Bullish technicals The Sprott report comes just before gold prices set a new record of $3,674.27 per ounce. As of Sept 12, its year-to-date gains stood at almost 40% — on pace for its best year since 1979. Its previous high was set in April during the tumultuous tariff-driven market stress. Since then, the precious metal went into a long period of consolidation, but according to Wong, it could be ready for another break out. “Equity positioning is now reaching the upper end of likely allocations, in our view, and risk headlines building, gold has broken out of its consolidation range,” he said, noting that investors have been holding onto their gold positions even when risk-on assets rallied. Click on chart for live prices. A key indicator, as Wong pointed out, is the 2s30s Treasury yield curve, which continues to steepen aggressively. “Markets are pricing in policy rate cuts even as long-term inflation and credibility premia rise on concerns about restrictions on Fed independence. Historically, when the Fed begins its rate-cutting cycle, long-end yields fall, but last year, when the Fed cut rates, long-end yields rose, which may repeat,” he wrote. In this case, it may revive chatters about yield curve control (YCC) — an unconventional monetary policy targeting long-term interest rates, Wong speculates. “Overall, the steepening yield curve is flashing bullish signals for gold: two-year yields falling on the prospect of lower policy rates ahead, while 30-year yields rise on the threats of persistent inflation risk, higher term premiums and potential fiscal dominance,” he continued. Source: Sprott/Bloomberg “If uncontrolled steepening pushes policymakers toward YCC, forcing nominal yields below inflation, we expect monetary assets (e.g., Treasury bonds and the US dollar) to erode in real terms, steering flows toward hard assets such as gold.”

Is physical gold the best legacy asset compared to stocks, property, or art? Executive summary: Physical gold is durable, simple to own, and easy to divide among heirs. Stocks usually build more long-term wealth but can be volatile and tax heavy inside certain retirement accounts. Property and art can pass on stature or income, yet both demand upkeep, expertise, and time. The best legacy asset balances simplicity, liquidity, taxes, and the skills of your heirs, not just headline returns. What makes a strong legacy asset A legacy asset should be easy to pass on, easy to value, and hard to ruin. It should not force heirs into quick sales at bad prices. It should have clear records, modest upkeep, and a known tax path. We will judge each option on nine factors: Durability: How well the asset survives time and handling. Liquidity: How fast heirs can sell at a fair price. Portability: How easy it is to move or divide. Transparency: How clear pricing and custody are. Costs: Ongoing storage, insurance, fees, and taxes. Cash flow: Whether it pays income without work. Tax treatment: Basis step-up, capital gains, and income taxes. Complexity: Paperwork, oversight, and specialized knowledge. Estate transfer: How cleanly the asset moves to heirs. Physical gold as a legacy asset Strengths Durability and permanence. A one-ounce coin looks the same in 50 years. There is no issuer risk, no software update, and no broken tenant. Liquidity. Well-known coins and bars sell widely through dealers and online markets. Bid-ask spreads are visible and often tight for popular coins. Sales can settle in days. Portability and divisibility. You can split an estate with a simple coin count. Heirs in different states can receive sealed tubes or bars by insured courier. Transparency. The spot price is quoted all day. Premiums and dealer fees are easy to compare. Trade-offs Costs. Expect storage or vault fees if you use a depository. Home storage may require a safe and added insurance. Spreads are small for common coins, but larger for rare items. Taxes (precise). In the U.S., physical gold is treated as a collectible; long-term gains are taxed at a maximum 28% federal rate (or your ordinary rate if lower), plus any state tax. At death, heirs typically receive a step-up in basis to fair market value under current rules, which can reduce future gains if they sell. No built-in income. Gold does not pay dividends or rent. That is fine for legacy value, but it does not fund spending by itself. Storage discipline. Records matter. Keep invoices, photos, serial numbers for larger bars, and a list of where items are stored. This reduces confusion and prevents forced sales. Stocks as a legacy asset Strengths Growth engine. Over long spans, diversified stocks have delivered strong real gains after inflation. That compounding can lift an estate more than many other mainstream assets. Liquidity and clarity. Public markets have deep, real-time pricing. Heirs can sell partial positions without moving the whole portfolio. Low friction for index funds. Fees for broad index ETFs and mutual funds are very low by historic standards. Trade-offs Volatility. Stocks can drop fast at the wrong time. If heirs panic, they may sell at a discount. Your legacy then depends on their discipline, not just your plan. Account wrappers change taxes. In a taxable account, heirs often get a step-up in basis. In traditional IRAs or 401(k)s, withdrawals are taxable income to heirs, and many non-spouse beneficiaries must empty the account within 10 years under current rules. Certain eligible designated beneficiaries (for example, surviving spouse, minor child of the decedent, disabled or chronically ill individuals, or someone less than 10 years younger than the decedent) may use life-expectancy payouts. The IRS has provided penalty relief on some interim RMD timing while final regulations are pending. Behavior risk. A simple, rules-based plan helps. Without it, heirs may chase fads or sit in cash for years. Property as a legacy asset Strengths Tangible and familiar. Real estate feels real. It can provide rental income and a sense of permanence. Tax features. Step-up in basis at death can reset depreciation for heirs and reduce embedded gains. With proper structures (trusts, LLCs) you can improve control and liability management – work with estate counsel. Trade-offs Illiquidity and effort. Selling a property can take months. Landlord tasks and repairs consume time or money. Property taxes never stop. Concentration risk. One house is one market. A local downturn can hit hard. Heir coordination. Shared ownership can create conflict. A single holdout can stall a sale. Art as a legacy asset Strengths Prestige and joy. Art can enrich family culture. A few works may appreciate over time. Trade-offs Expertise required. Authentications, provenance, and condition drive value. Heirs will need specialists. Opaque pricing and high fees. Auction and dealer commissions can be significant. Bid-ask spreads vary widely. Security and insurance. Climate control and theft risk add cost. Moving art is a project, not an errand. Side-by-side: which legacy asset fits which job? Legacy Asset Scorecard (generalized, not personal advice) Factor Physical Gold Stocks (Broad Index) Property (Rentals) Art Durability High N/A (intangible) Medium (wear, obsolescence) Medium (condition risk) Liquidity High for common coins Very high Low Low to medium Portability/Divisibility High High Low Low Transparency High (spot + premium) Very high Medium (local markets) Low Ongoing Costs Low to Medium (vault/insurance) Low (fund fees) High (tax, repairs, mgmt) High (insurance, storage) Cash Flow None Dividends (variable) Rent (active) None Tax at Sale Collectible gains up to 28% federal Capital gains rates Capital gains + up to 25% unrecaptured §1250 recapture Capital gains Estate Transfer Simplicity High with good records High (taxable); complex in IRAs Medium to Low Low Notes: The table shows general tendencies. Actual outcomes depend on titling, tax bracket, state law, and market conditions. Tax references reflect current U.S. rules; confirm with a CPA or attorney. When physical gold shines as a legacy asset You need simplicity. Coins or small bars are easy to count, store, and split. Heirs can sell a few pieces without liquidating everything. You want low maintenance. Once stored safely, gold asks little. There are no quarterly board letters to scan, no tenant evictions, and no humidity control for canvases. You value privacy. While you should keep clean records, physical gold does not produce public deeds or rent rolls. That can limit unwanted attention. Your heirs lack investment experience. A pile of index funds still needs rules. A property still needs a manager. Gold lets heirs defer decisions until they are ready. When gold is not the best legacy asset You want ongoing income. If the goal is to fund education, medical care, or charitable gifts each year, a dividend portfolio or a professionally managed rental may fit better. You need high expected growth. Over very long periods, diversified stocks have generally outpaced gold in real, after-inflation terms. If growth for heirs is the priority, equities are the core engine. You face tight storage or travel limits. Vaulting solves this, but adds cost. If every dollar must work, fund fees may be cheaper than vault fees. Practical ways to hold physical gold for heirs Choose recognizable forms Common coins: American Eagle, American Buffalo, Canadian Maple Leaf, and similar. These carry trusted purity and wide buy/sell markets. Bars with serials: For larger amounts, consider kilo bars or 10-oz bars from well-known refiners. Select a custody method Insured depository: Professional storage with audits and segregated accounts. Expect a fee based on value. Bank safe-deposit box: Low cost but note that box contents are not insured by the FDIC or the bank; arrange private coverage (for example, a rider on homeowners or renters insurance). Confirm access rules for heirs with the bank. Home safe: Only with proper insurance and discretion. Keep redundancy and documentation. Title and paperwork Clear ownership: Use a revocable trust, or explicit bequests in your will. TOD/POD beneficiary designations apply to accounts (brokerage, bank, or depository) that hold bullion, not to loose coins at home. Evidence: Keep purchase receipts, photos, and an inventory. Update when you add or remove pieces. Location memo: Write a plain-English note that tells heirs what exists, where it is, and who to call. Selling playbook for heirs Identify the exact items (type, weight, year, mint, serial if any). Check current spot price and typical premiums. Get two quotes from reputable dealers. Ask about wire timing and fees. Ship insured with clear chain of custody, or sell locally with security in mind. Record proceeds and set aside taxes as needed. How stocks fit the legacy plan Use broad diversification. A low-cost index fund avoids single-stock risk. It also makes rebalancing simple for heirs. Place assets in the right accounts. Assets that benefit from step-up can sit in taxable accounts. Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s carry future income taxes for heirs; Roth IRAs avoid income tax on qualified withdrawals but still follow post-death timelines. Pre-write rules. Spell out a simple glide path for heirs: target asset mix, rebalancing bands, and who to call for advice. This cuts panic and delays. Where property works (and doesn’t) Works when a trusted manager is in place, cash flow is stable, and the property sits in a landlord-friendly area. A clean LLC structure and estate plan help heirs avoid disputes. Doesn’t work when heirs are scattered, the home is unique, or the roof and systems are near end of life. Forced repairs can wipe out a year’s rent. Art as legacy: a niche choice Use specialists. If art is meaningful to your family, document provenance and intent. Decide which pieces are for sale and which are for keeping. Pre-identify auction houses and minimum prices. Be honest about costs. Insurance, shipping, and storage can rival returns. Without expert guidance, heirs may accept poor offers or damage value in transit. Two simple models that combine assets Model A: “Simplicity first” legacy Core: Broad stock index funds for growth. Stability slice: 5 to 15% in physical gold, sized to cover one to two years of a major family cost. Optional: One property only if it is turnkey with professional management. Why it works: Stocks drive long-term wealth. Gold adds a simple, saleable reserve. The plan avoids complex hobbies disguised as investments. Model B: “Income plus ballast” legacy Core: Dividend-oriented stock funds or ladders of high-quality bonds for predictable cash flow. Ballast: A modest physical gold allocation as a diversification hedge. Optional: Keep property only if a manager is contracted and capital reserves are funded. Why it works: Heirs receive income without heavy lifting. Gold remains the emergency valve, not the main engine. Costs to expect (and control) Typical Ongoing Costs by Asset Type Asset Common Ongoing Costs How to Reduce Physical Gold Vault/storage, insurance, bid-ask spread Use common coins, compare vault fees, sell in larger lots Stocks Fund expense ratios, advisory fees (if any) Favor low-cost index funds; avoid layers of fees Property Taxes, insurance, repairs, management, vacancies Budget reserves, inspect often, hire proven managers Art Insurance, storage, commissions Consolidate with reputable dealers; plan sales windows Taxes and paperwork: what heirs actually face Step-up in basis. Many U.S. assets receive a basis step-up at death to fair market value. That can reduce capital gains if heirs sell soon after. Assets that are “income in respect of a decedent” (for example, traditional IRAs) do not receive a step-up. Collectible tax rate. Physical gold held more than a year is subject to the federal collectible gain rate up to 28% on sale. Short-term gains are ordinary income. Documentation matters. Retirement accounts. Traditional IRA and 401(k) withdrawals are taxable income to heirs. Many non-spouse heirs must distribute inherited accounts within 10 years under current rules; eligible designated beneficiaries may use life-expectancy payouts. Roth IRAs have no lifetime RMDs for the owner; qualified withdrawals are tax-free but beneficiaries still follow post-death timelines. Designated Roth accounts in 401(k)/403(b) plans have no lifetime RMDs starting in 2024. Inherited real estate depreciation. An heir’s depreciable basis generally steps up to FMV, and a new MACRS schedule starts when placed in service. At sale, expect capital gains plus up to 25% tax on unrecaptured §1250 depreciation. Holding period rule for heirs. Property inherited by an heir is treated as long-term for capital-gains purposes regardless of the actual holding period after inheritance – useful when an asset is sold soon after settlement. Probate and titling. Using trusts, TOD/POD on applicable accounts, or proper beneficiary forms can move assets outside probate. For physical bullion not held in an account, use a revocable trust or explicit will instructions. That speeds settlement and lowers conflict. Common mistakes that shrink a legacy No inventory. Heirs cannot find what you never list. Exotic items. Rare coins, thinly traded stocks, unique properties, and niche art raise spreads and stress. Mixing intent. An “income” plan built from non-income assets forces sales at the wrong time. Ignoring fees. Advice and storage fees compound like returns – against you. Waiting on documents. Missing titles, beneficiary forms, or trust funding can trigger probate delays. Balanced verdict: is physical gold the best legacy asset? For simplicity, portability, and fairness among heirs, physical gold scores high. It is easy to divide, store, and sell. It carries no issuer risk. The trade-off is no income and a potentially higher federal tax rate on gains at sale. For growth and long-term wealth, diversified stocks are usually superior, provided heirs can follow a plan. Tax wrappers matter. A Roth beats a taxable account for after-tax withdrawals, while a traditional IRA may pass on a tax bill. For status or cash flow, property or art can work, but only with management and clear exit rules. Without that, the asset can feel like a second job. The best legacy strategy is rarely a single bet. A sensible mix – stocks for growth, a measured slice of physical gold for simplicity and diversification, and only the property you would keep if you could not sell – keeps options open for your heirs and reduces forced errors. Action checklist Define the job. Income, stability, or a simple handoff? Rank these needs. Pick forms. For gold, use common coins or serial-numbered bars. For stocks, use broad index funds. Fix custody. Choose depository, safe-deposit (with private insurance), or home safe with insurance; set beneficiaries on applicable accounts. Write the memo. Inventory, locations, key contacts, and sell-steps for heirs. Tighten taxes. Confirm basis, titling, and beneficiary designations with a CPA and attorney. Keep it current. Review yearly. Update records after any change. Key takeaways Physical gold is a strong legacy asset for simplicity, portability, and fair division. Stocks usually build more wealth over time, if heirs follow a simple, low-cost plan. Property and art can work, but they demand management and carry higher friction. Taxes, titling, and account type decide as much as returns; clean paperwork preserves value. A blended plan – growth plus a modest gold reserve – serves most families well. The post Is physical gold the best legacy asset compared to stocks, property, or art? first appeared on American Bullion.

According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Dogecoin’s price has pushed back above the $0.3 mark, a level that traders watched closely this week. TradingView data shows an 11% rise in a session that sent the coin to a multi-month high, and the move has drawn fresh attention ahead of the first spot DOGE ETF. Volume is high and many eyes are now on how long buyers can hold gains. Meme Coin Retakes A Key Level Based on reports, the rebound came even after the planned ETF launch was delayed. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said the REX-Osprey fund has been pushed to next week and will hold spot DOGE among other assets. That structure could allow some institutional money to get exposure without direct custody of all holdings themselves. Analysts Set Stretch Targets Crypto analysts have offered a range of upside scenarios. Javon Marks put a breakout target at $0.6533, which would be more than 100% above current prices and sit below the all-time high of $0.73. Shorter-term levels mentioned by traders include resistance near $0.26 and a next target around $0.45. Price action shows five green sessions out of the last six and a tight range forming between the 200-day EMA and that resistance zone, signs that buying pressure has increased in the near term. Whales, Volume And Technical Signals Reports have highlighted strong whale buys at current levels. The token briefly rose to about $0.2840, its highest reading since July 21, and 24-hour volume has climbed above $5 billion. The monthly RSI recently posted a positive crossover, a technical hint some traders call bullish. Still, many warn that a firm monthly close will be needed to confirm a longer trend change and that quick swings remain possible. Market Context And What Comes Next A clean move above $0.26 is being watched as a confirmation point by several traders. If that level gives way, momentum could carry prices to $0.45 and then to $0.80 under a sustained buying wave. The ETF timing matters: calendar shifts like the recent delay can nudge sentiment, but the rally has continued even without the fund listing, suggesting other buyers are already positioning ahead of any formal launch. Nowhere But Up Dogecoin’s reclaim of $0.3 marks a clear shift from recent weakness and signals renewed upside potential if buyers hold key supports. Reports of whale accumulation, a surge in 24-hour volume above $5 billion, and technical moves such as the monthly RSI crossover all add to a bullish case, while the delayed REX-Osprey ETF launch keeps some uncertainty in play. Peter Brandt called the move a “huge breakthrough”, a phrase that captures why traders are watching the monthly close and whether the coin can press toward targets like $0.6533 and levels near its $0.73 ATH. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Decades after the United States’ large-scale uranium mining industry mushroomed in Utah and New Mexico in the 1950s, the industry is returning to its Southwest roots in a revival spurred by economic and political currents. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas and Utah are seeing the release of new uranium resources, permit fast-tracking, and production and processing starts after an industry downturn of several years. “[Uranium] producers were for the most part out of business, meaning their deposits were closed and mines were on care and maintenance for the greater part of 10 years,” John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, told The Northern Miner in an August interview. “And in the last three years, the industry is basically trying to create a supply response in reaction to the price and demand signals that it’s seeing. So that’s really positive.” Though the US imports the majority of the uranium it consumes, this return of uranium activity to the states where the industry began after the Second World War represents efforts to align domestic supply with rising demand for nuclear. Those efforts are supported by tailwinds pushing the uranium sector in the US including higher spot prices, government support for nuclear energy and uranium mining and increasing data centre demand for atomic power. Renewed Southwest exploration Among the most recent developments in the Southwest is Global Uranium and Enrichment’s (ASX: GUE) initial resource for its Maybell project in Colorado in July. Uranium was mined intermittently near Maybell from the 1950s until the 1980s. The company’s Maybell estimate is the second largest initial hard rock uranium resource in the Southwest and the most significant uranium development in Colorado since Denison Mines’ (TSX: DML; NYSE: DNN) Topaz operation closed in 2009. The (Australian rules) JORC resource outlines 3.2 million inferred tonnes grading 849 parts per million (ppm) uranium oxide (U3O8) for about 6 million lb. U3O8. “[The resource] confirms that the Maybell uranium project remains a substantial uranium district in the United States,” managing director Andrew Ferrier said in a release. “These results not only validate our exploration target but also highlight the significant potential to substantially increase upon this maiden resource.” Global’s resource is based on a 25-hole, 3,200-metre drill program done last year. It confirms high-grade mineralization in the sands of the productive Browns Park Formation. In the past, the district yielded about 5.3 million lb. U3O8 at an average grade of 1,300 ppm. Global Uranium’s exploration target at Maybell ranges between 4.3 million lb. and 13.3 million lb. U3O8, at grades between 587 ppm and 1,137 ppm, derived from a historic database of more than 3,000 drill holes. Hard rock peers Energy Fuels‘ (TSX: EFR; NYSE-A: UUUU) Bullfrog project in Utah follows Maybell in regional size with 10.5 million lb. U3O8. while its La Sal complex in Utah hosts 4.2 million lb. U3O8. By grade, Maybell is in third place, behind Energy Fuels’ Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona with 8,100 U3O8 ppm and Bullfrog with 3,700 ppm U3O8, but above La Sal’s 400 ppm U3O8. Speaking generally, Ciampaglia said the uranium industry is focused on discoveries that were made more than a decade ago but low uranium prices gave miners little reason to develop them. “Now companies are finally submitting environmental reviews, permits, permit processes, and they’re raising capital in anticipation of building mines,” he said. Return of production Domestic production of uranium exceeded 10 million lb. U3O8 annually from the 1950s until well into the 1980s, peaking at 43.7 million lb. U3O8 in 1980, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). But imports from other countries like Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia began to overtake domestic output in 1990, until American production declined to a low of 174,000 lb. U3O8 in 2019. Output has been slowly rising since then, increasing to 200,000 lb. U3O8 in 2022 then down to 50,000 lb. U3O8 in 2023, and then shooting up to 700,000 lb. U3O8 last year. In-situ recovery (ISR) mining in Wyoming has accounted for most US production over the last several years, but since last year’s first quarter, output has shifted to sites in the Southwest, EIA data show. That production has been filled by EnCore Energy’s (Nasdaq, TSXV: EU) Alta Mesa and Rosita ISR facilities in Texas, which had both been idled for more than a decade, and Energy Fuels’ White Mesa Mill in Utah. Energy Fuels’ La Sal Complex mines in Utah, which were put into care and maintenance in 2019, restarted in 2023 and its Pinyon Plain underground mine in Arizona started fresh production around the same time. After the three mines ramped up output in 2024, they produced 151,000 lb. U3O8 in this year’s first quarter and surged to 665,000 lb. U3O8 in the second quarter, with Pinyon Plain dominating. The Rosita plant restarted in November 2023 after it was idled since 2008 due to low uranium prices, and Alta Mesa restarted in June 2024. Permit pluses Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s efforts to accelerate development permitting have given traction to uranium projects in the region. Most recently, Laramide Resources’ (TSX: LAM) Crownpoint-Churchrock and La Jara Mesa projects in New Mexico were granted FAST-41 covered status by the US Permitting Council in late May. Also in New Mexico, private developer Grants Energy’s Precision ISR project also joined the fast track. Earlier in May, the United States Department of the Interior approved Anfield Energy’s (TSXV: AEC) Velvet-Wood uranium and vanadium mine in Utah, making it the first project to be greenlit under an accelerated 14-day environmental review timeline. The site, where those metals were mined from 1979 until 1984, was recognized due to its existing infrastructure which would create less of an environmental footprint than new construction. While the permitting boosts are spurring exploration and development, Ciampaglia noted that most of the US’ key deposits have already been mined, and it could be challenging to bring new discoveries to market. “With uranium mining, the permitting process is very long, you’re dealing with a radioactive material. There are more complexities than other types of mines,” he said. “But the will is there, the government incentives are there. We have clarity around policy. This is a really good opportunity for production in the US to revive itself, but it’s going to take time.” With files from Henry Lazenby

The steady appreciation in the Ethereum price continues to mirror how resilient the cryptocurrency has become in the market. Despite the waves of skepticism experienced in the past, there seems to have been a recent major shift in investor behavior, which shows a level of optimism in the potential growth of the Ether token. Ethereum Netflow Across Exchanges Consistently Negative In a September 13 post on social media platform X, on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed how Ethereum’s investors have been acting behind the scenes over the past few months. According to Darkfost, there has been a major shift in investor behavior since Ethereum’s last price drop from $4,000 to $1,500. At the time, the prevailing investor mood was fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) — emotions which did not play so much of a role in affecting the long-term activity of investors. Darkfost reported that the netflow across all exchanges has been “consistently negative” since the major Ethereum price drop; this means that more ETH is leaving exchanges than they are being deposited. According to the on-chain analyst, around 56,000 ETH is being withdrawn daily over an average of 30 days. Interestingly, this figure has not been seen since the depths of the last bear market. Recently, there have been days when more than 400,000 ETH were withdrawn. What is more interesting is that the exchange netflows have not turned positive since July. As earlier inferred, this trend of token movement represents a shift in the holding behavior of Ethereum investors, as they move their assets off trading platforms to non-custodial wallets for long-term storage. Ultimately, this suggests that holders are becoming increasingly confident in the ETH’s long-term promise. As of this writing, the Ether token is valued at around $4,660, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Ethereum has increased by almost 10% in the past seven days. BTC And ETH Reserves Drop 23% And 20% Respectively In a separate post, Darkfost analyzed the Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Reserve metrics across all exchanges and estimated how much of these cryptocurrencies have left exchanges in 2025. According to the online pundit, Bitcoin reserves across all exchanges have dropped by almost a quarter of their total holdings since the year’s beginning. The BTC exchange reserves have dipped by 23% to about 2.47 million BTC from 3.05 million BTC as of January 1, 2025. Ethereum exchange reserves, on the other hand, did not immediately start to decline until the month of May. As mentioned in the earlier post, ETH supply on exchanges began to fall following a reversal triggered by its fall to below $1,500. Over the last four months, Ethereum reserves have fallen to 17.1 million from 20.6 million, representing a 20% decline. A significant decline in exchange reserves is often interpreted as a sign of accumulation among investors. This trend could be a bullish catalyst for the two largest cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum, considering that the coin movement started more recently.

Analysts are highlighting ETH USD priming to retest $4,700 – and amid the upside pressure – is dark money rotating into Ethereum? A wallet tied to a $300M Coinbase scam bought $18.9M worth of Ether as ETH ripped past $4,700 Yesterday. According to Lookonchain, a crypto address linked to the “Coinbase hacker” campaign bought 3,976 ETH for $18.9 million on Sept. 13. The operation, described as a wide-scale social engineering campaign, targeted Coinbase users and has kept the wallet under close surveillance from on-chain analysts. The timing of the latest ETH accumulation has reinforced speculation of a market rotation into Ether. Traders noted the wallet’s moves coincided with renewed momentum in ETH/USD, adding weight to the narrative that deep-pocketed actors are shifting into the asset. Ethereum Price Analysis: How High Could ETH Go If the $4,700 Neckline Breaks? Ethereum is showing renewed strength, with technical signals pointing to a possible breakout that could send prices toward $5,500. As per Tradingview data, ETH trades near $4,660, holding above its short-term moving averages on the 4-hour chart. (Source – ETH USDT, TradingView) The 50-EMA sits at $4,462 and the 100-EMA at $4,421, both trending upward. This setup suggests buyers remain in control despite minor pullbacks. Recent sessions have also seen higher volume, supporting the move that lifted ETH from the $4,300 range to above $4,650 in just a few days. The broader structure shows a recovery trend after weeks of sideways action. Short-term candles reveal brief dips followed by fresh buying, a sign of steady demand. If ETH holds support above the 50-EMA, momentum may continue. If not, price risks sliding back to the $4,400-$4,300 zone, where both moving averages converge. Analyst Titan of Crypto pointed to an Adam & Eve double-bottom pattern on the daily chart. (Source – X) The formation combines a sharp “V”-shaped low with a rounded base, signaling a potential reversal. The neckline lies just below $4,700, close to current levels. A confirmed breakout above that neckline would project a measured move target of $5,500, in line with historical resistance. This adds weight to the view that Ethereum could be setting up for a more substantial rally if buying pressure holds. What Are Derivatives Telling Us About Ethereum’s Next Move? If Ethereum breaks above the neckline, traders could turn bullish, with $5,500 as the next target. But if it fails, the price may pull back to test how solid the recent rally really is. Derivatives activity shows elevated positioning. CoinGlass data puts ETH futures open interest near $64Bn, while funding rates last session hovered around 0.01% across major exchanges, steady, but not excessive. (Source – Coinglass) Spot ETF flows have also improved. On Sept. 12, after several days of outflows, Farside Investors reported net inflows into US ETH funds, pointing to fresh institutional demand. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 The post ETH USD Price Primes to Retest $4,700: Dark Money Rotating into Ethereum? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

In Africa crypto news this week: South African finance firm Altvest Capital is set to raise $210 million to create a Bitcoin reserve treasury for its investors. Altvest is following global trends, set in motion by MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet, in adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet. In the same market, Binance has partnered with the payment platform Zapper to scale merchant payments in South Africa. Binance is a leading crypto exchange, and expanding its presence in Africa is key. From this week, over 30,000 more merchants began accepting Binance Pay through Zapper’s rail. Meanwhile, Luno Exchange has expanded its tokenized stock options to the Nigerian market. With Nasdaq planning to bring stocks onchain, Luno is strategic and wants to address people’s needs by allowing them to invest in top global companies with a simple press of a button. DISCOVER: Top Solana Meme Coins to Buy in 2025 Let’s look at these stories making continental headlines this week: South Africa Crypto News: Altvest To Raise $210M For Bitcoin Finance firm Altvest Capital is set to raise $210M to buy BTC ▼-0.11%. The company looks to build a Bitcoin treasury reserve to leverage the increasingly valuable asset in its portfolio. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.31T24h7d1y Bitcoin has appreciated tremendously in the past decade and currently trades above $112,000. Altvest intends to change its name to African Bitcoin Corp and become a continental leader in Bitcoin investments. CEO Warren Wheatley said the move is strategic since “pension funds, retirement annuities, unit trusts and others usually cannot directly buy Bitcoin…..but by buying our shares they will now be able to get exposure in a regulated way through equity.” In the United States, MicroStrategy was the first notable company to create a Bitcoin reserve, and today, it manages a billion-dollar Bitcoin portfolio. Altvest Capital seeks to replicate this success on a continental level as Bitcoin becomes increasingly ingrained into the financial mainstream. DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Nigeria Crypto News: Luno expands tokenized stocks to Nigeria South African crypto exchange Luno has expanded its tokenized stock options to the Nigerian market. The firm launched its products in the South African market a few weeks ago and has now expanded to the continent’s most populous nation. Their tokenized stocks track some of the leading stocks globally. These stocks include Tesla, Nvidia, and more blue-chip stocks that are the gold standard for equity markets. Merchant payments are lucrative in South Africa as it is a leader in crypto payments continent-wide. Zapper has processed over 300 million transactions to date, and Binance intends to leverage this market insight to grow its payments service in this vital market. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 Africa crypto news: Altvest Bitcoin, Luno Stocks Nigeria Africa crypto news: Binance Pay partners with Zapper South Africa crypto news: Altvest Capital to raise $210M for buying Bitcoin Nigeria crypto news: Luno crypto exchange tokenizes top global stocks The post Africa Crypto News Week in Review: Altvest Raises $210M To Buy Bitcoin, Luno Tokenized Stocks In Nigeria, Binance Partners With Zapper appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The price of Bitcoin has struggled to capitalize on its recent bullish momentum, oscillating in and around the $116,000 level so far this weekend. This choppy price action has raised doubts about the flagship cryptocurrency’s potential to resume its bull run and reach a new all-time high price. A crypto expert on social media platform X has come forward with an interesting outlook for the Bitcoin price, stating that the market leader could be gearing up for its next explosive move. However, the on-chain analyst added that a certain condition must be met for BTC to resume its uptrend. A Break Above $118,000 Could Precede Price Explosion: Analyst In a September 13 post on X, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the price of Bitcoin could be preparing for an extended rally over the next few weeks. The on-chain data expert shared that the premier cryptocurrency will need a convincing break above the $118,000 level to confirm the resumption of the bull run. Wedson noted in his post that $117,000 is actually the price mark to watch out for, as it represents a zone of strong interest and indecision. Specifically, two on-chain indicators—the CVDD Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price—have designated this price level as a point where the market is likely to slow down or form a local top. According to analytics platform Alphractal, the CVDD Channel is a metric that estimates historical price floors and risk zones based on the coin destruction data and Fibonacci envelopes. Meanwhile, the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price combines the market mean price with Fibonacci bands to identify structural expansion and value zones. Wedson highlighted that both the CVDD Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price have revealed “eerily accurate levels” of support and resistance throughout Bitcoin’s price history. Currently, these metrics are pointing to $117,000 as a level that could provide resistance to the upward movement of the Bitcoin price. In the end, Wedson concluded that this zone could be critical to the market leader’s next move to the upside. However, the Alphractal founder advised Bitcoin investors to wait for a clear, sustained breakout above $118,000 to confirm that bullish momentum is back. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $115,905, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours.

In a recent post on X, crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD shared a bullish daily technical outlook for Ethereum (ETH), highlighting a strong close that suggests further upward movement is likely. The analyst’s primary expectation is for more gains to follow as the ETH/BTC pair begins to surge. This key relationship is a central focus for the analyst, as a strong performance from Ethereum against BTC often signals a broader bullish period for ETH itself. ETH And ETHBTC Daily Candles Flash Strong Bullish Close Giving a detailed market update, CRYPTOWZRD highlighted that both Ethereum’s daily candle and the ETHBTC pair closed strongly bullish. ETHBTC’s surge occurred as Bitcoin’s dominance weakened, providing altcoins with room to build momentum. This shift marked a significant move for Ethereum, reflecting renewed strength in the broader market structure. According to his analysis, ETHBTC successfully broke out of its daily falling wedge pattern, a move that often signals the start of a bullish reversal. Ethereum mirrored this strength, pushing higher alongside the breakout, which further reinforced optimism among traders who have been watching closely for signs of sustained upside momentum. Examining key levels, CRYPTOWZRD highlighted that $5,000 remains the primary daily resistance for Ethereum. A decisive break above this threshold could ignite an impulsive rally, potentially driving ETH toward the $5,780 resistance zone or even higher. On the downside, $4,000 is seen as the critical daily support, providing a safety net for bulls should price action cool off in the short term. Despite the strong outlook, he noted that his primary focus will stay on the lower time frame chart formations for tomorrow, as these provide opportunities for quick scalps and short-term trades. However, with the weekend approaching, CRYPTOWZRD is maintaining a rational stance. Volatility Offers Both Risk And Opportunity In The Current Setup Crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD has stated that the intraday chart for Ethereum is showing significant volatility, with more expected in the near term. This high level of fluctuation is something he is prepared for and is a normal part of the market as it searches for a new direction. In the meantime, CRYPTOWZRD has outlined two potential scenarios. If BTC’s price pulls back toward the $4,500 level, it will then show a clear bullish reversal. Another scenario would be if Ethereum holds strong and breaks above the $4,765 resistance, it would signal a new upward leg. Ultimately, the analyst advises exercising patience and waiting for the market to present a clear, healthy trade setup. This cautious approach acknowledges the current volatility, and the market’s next move will dictate the next best opportunity.

Dogecoin’s price action over the past week has seen it trending upwards. This movement has seen the meme cryptocurrency make a push towards the upper end of a consolidation range in the daily candlestick timeframe chart. A recent analysis shared on TradingView by The_Alchemist_Trader points to a possible shift in momentum, as Dogecoin is retesting its point of control with a bullish reaction that might push it to $0.35 in the short term and as high as $0.6 in the long term. Dogecoin Retesting Point Of Control According to the analysis, Dogecoin is currently testing its point of control, a high-volume resistance area that has defined much of its trading structure in recent months. This price action goes as far back as February with well-defined upper and lower trendlines. Interestingly, price action volume in the past 48 hours shows that buyers are stepping in aggressively at the mid-level of this range, which is around $0.25. This is very important, and a daily close above the point of control with strong volume would translate from range-bound movement to a defined upward rally. This bullish reaction comes after Dogecoin bounced at $0.2 last week, a move that created a solid foundation for another leg upward. Now, according to the analyst, the next thing is for Dogecoin to make a close basis above its point of control resistance. Roadmap To $0.35 Through Fibonacci Levels Fibonacci extension levels have served as reliable indicators of profit-taking and continuation levels for Dogecoin in the current cycles. As such, many analysts are fond of pointing to price targets at notable Fib levels. In this case, the analyst noted that a successful breakout above the point of control at $0.25 opens the path toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This level, which is positioned around $0.35, stands out as the primary upside target in the current setup. The chart below shows a projected rally pattern for this breakout with a clear roadmap drawn to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level. This also includes extensions to the $0.36 price level at the 0.66 Fib extension and the $0.4 price level at the 0.786 Fib extension if the momentum continues. A move toward $0.35 would represent not just a technical price target but also a strong confirmation that Dogecoin has reestablished bullish dominance above its consolidation range since February. From here, Dogecoin could start holding up above $0.3 again. Dogecoin’s short-term movement is now tilted to the upside, provided the price continues to close above the point of control with strong participation from buyers. Volume is the most important thing here, as a breakout without sufficient backing could result in a false move and cause Dogecoin to return to range trading. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is about to break above the upper trendline of its multi-month range. Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.2874, up by 12.6% and 33% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical turning point, successfully flipping a key horizontal support zone that previously acted as resistance. With momentum now building, the focus has shifted to the next major test: the $117,000 resistance level. A decisive move above this threshold would not only confirm the continuation of the current rally but also set the stage for a potential run toward new highs. Daily Support Flip Confirms Bullish Control Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent market update, pointed out that BTC is showing renewed strength on the daily timeframe. The leading cryptocurrency successfully flipped a key horizontal zone into support, a move that highlights growing buyer dominance in the market. This structural shift is seen as a positive development for bulls, laying the groundwork for further upside momentum. With buyers firmly in control, Bitcoin’s price action is now being driven higher toward the previous swing high near $117,000. This level has emerged as the next significant hurdle for bulls, acting as a critical area where market sentiment could either extend the rally or spark profit-taking. The analysis further noted that if Bitcoin manages to push above $117,000, the level itself could turn into an attractive area for potential short setups. However, such a strategy carries risks, as the invalidation point would be a decisive breakout above BTC’s all-time high. Until then, $117,000 stands out as the key level of interest for market participants. How Bitcoin reacts in this zone will determine whether it consolidates, faces rejection, or surges higher. For traders, this level offers a critical point to evaluate possible entries, exits, and positioning as the next major move takes shape. Bitcoin Struggles To Secure A Hold Above $116,000 According to a recent post by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin is continuing its upward trajectory. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to firmly hold above the $116,000 level, which suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, buyers have yet to fully overcome this significant hurdle. Crypto VIP Signal’s analysis notes that the entire market is looking positive, but a temporary slowdown can be expected. This is primarily attributed to a decline in trading volume, which is a common occurrence on weekends as activity from institutional traders and large investors often lessens. Given these conditions, Crypto VIP Signal predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a period of sideways movement. The consolidation phase would allow the market to digest recent gains and build the necessary momentum to attempt another push past the $116,000 resistance.

Despite experiencing a significant plunge from ATH levels earlier last month, the Bitcoin price continues to test crucial levels that could shape the trajectory of its next move. A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Casitrades suggests that the coming days could define whether the broader market will face a macro correction or extend its bullish momentum. For now, Fibonacci zones, Elliott Wave structures, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) behaviour align to build a critical narrative around BTC’s price direction. Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin Price Macro Correction On Friday, Casitrades explained in an X social media post that Bitcoin’s recent price surge has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $116,000, an important milestone in the recovery phase. Interestingly, despite this sudden push higher, the RSI highlighted on the price chart is yet to show the exhaustion one would typically expect at a major top. This suggests buyers may still have room to drive prices further upward before hitting a ceiling. Notably, the analyst pointed out $118,000 as the next critical level to watch, noting that it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Casitrades has described this area as a decisive confluence point. A sharp rejection here could confirm that Bitcoin’s bull run has officially ended, reinforcing the theory that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a Wave 2 macro correction phase. On the other hand, the analyst noted that forming a top around the decisive confluence point would confirm that BTC is not ready to challenge or break into new all-time highs and could instead retrace deeper. As the chart illustrates, potential downside targets lie well below Bitcoin’s current price levels above $115,800, hinting that a failure at $118,000 could lead to a steeper correction that might drag the cryptocurrency back into the $110,000 – $106,000 zone in the near term. $122,000 Marks Final Test For Macro Correction While $118,000 remains the first line of resistance for Bitcoin, Casitrades highlighted that the cryptocurrency could extend its rally higher into the $120,000 – $122,000 zone if momentum persists. This level is viewed as the final test that will decide whether the macro correction holds or fails. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it an even more formidable resistance area. The expectation is that if Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of exhaustion and the cryptocurrency faces strong rejection in this region, the correction could be swift and significant. In this scenario, Bitcoin would set up for a macro downturn, confirming the theory that the rally from recent lows has merely been a corrective leg. The projected correction could then reset the broader structure, allowing for healthier long-term price action. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through $122,000 convincingly, Casitrades notes that it would invalidate the macro correction narrative altogether and potentially send it to price levels between $122,000 – $124,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Many crypto analysts and investors are very bullish on XRP, providing lofty price targets. However, Austin Hilton, a popular crypto commentator, has declared that investors are not bullish enough on XRP, while also admitting that he too had underestimated the token’s true potential. His latest outlook is that XRP’s price upside is far greater than most expect, and this realization comes from examining where Bitcoin could be in the coming years. Bitcoin’s Billion-Dollar Forecast And What It Means For XRP XRP price predictions have mostly always been anchored on discussions and expectations of adoption by banks in cross-border settlement. However, according to Austin Hilton, all these catalysts could be left aside, and XRP’s price could surge massively in the years ahead, especially if Bitcoin fulfills lofty projections. According to the pundit, the scale of the crypto opportunity in the coming decades is so immense that current investors are not bullish enough and accumulating enough XRP. He referenced a circulating forecast that predicted that Bitcoin could reach as high as $1 billion per coin by 2038, a figure championed by high-profile names such as Michael Saylor. This prediction stunned him, as the highest long-term projections he had seen had put the Bitcoin price at $13 million. Bringing the conversation back to XRP, he noted that if this projected Bitcoin rally pushes the entire market upward, as it has always done, then XRP’s value could rise even more in relative terms. Therefore, XRP has the room to act as a multiplier in comparison to Bitcoin’s moves because of its smaller market cap. The Roadmap To Double And Triple-Digit XRP As noted by Hilton, the $1 billion projection is very speculative, adding that “that absolutely floored me and blew me away.” However, the analyst also pointed out that even shorter-term moves in Bitcoin could have an outsized impact on XRP. For instance, he predicted that the XRP price will surge to between $15 and $20 if Bitcoin were to reach $200,000 by the end of the year. Furthermore, he added that XRP’s price could realistically climb to triple digits if Bitcoin advances to the $1 million price level in the coming years. In this case, the analyst estimated a potential of at least $100 per coin. Interestingly, these price targets do not even account for catalysts within XRP’s own ecosystem, such as Ripple’s cross-border payment network, acquisitions, and growing adoption among banks. XRP’s upside could be even greater when these factors are factored in. The pundit’s bottom line was that XRP holders need to raise their level of conviction. Bitcoin currently makes up around 60% of the entire crypto market, meaning that any explosive growth in its value is almost certain to lift other large market cap cryptocurrencies. XRP has a smaller cap than Bitcoin, so it could post even stronger relative gains in such an environment. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.14, up by 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The latest on-chain data shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, may be currently undervalued. Having witnessed a strong resurgence in the past week, the altcoin could be on the verge of an extended rally over the next few weeks. Ethereum’s NVT Ratio Hits New Record Low In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst CryptoOnchain reported that there has been a disproportionate increase in transaction volume concerning ETH compared to its market capitalization. The relevant indicator here is the Ethereum NVT (Network Value to Transactions ratio) (30-day SMA), which measures the ratio of Ethereum’s market capitalization to its daily transaction volume over the span of 30 days. CryptoOnchain revealed that the 30-day moving average NVT recently hit its lowest point ever recorded. As explained by the on-chain analyst, this could suggest two things: firstly, that the Ethereum token is undervalued. For context, a low NVT reflects very high transaction volume compared to a relatively low market capitalization. What this means is that the Ethereum network is being heavily used, but the price isn’t showing its worth as much as its usage suggests. Following this logic, one could conclude the market is currently undervaluing Ethereum’s utility. The second indication from the historically low NVT is that the increase in transaction volume could be due to “temporary factors such as DeFi, NFT events, or large capital movements.” According to the analyst, these temporary factors do not necessarily mean sustainable growth for the ETH price. What To Expect CryptoOnchain cited historical occurrences to explain the typical case where an NVT bottom is a result of market undervaluation. In this case, it has been observed that sharp NVT bottoms precede bullish phases. However, in what was a caveat, the online pundit mentioned that there have been cases where very low NVT levels were accompanied by further price declines. Seeing that the Ethereum NVT is not just at a mere low level, but at its all-time low, it seems more likely that the market is undervaluing the token’s worth. It is therefore not out of the question to expect a more upward swing in the price of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Ethereum To $6,800 By Year End? CME Futures Data Shows Record Institutional Demand Nevertheless, with the possibility that a bullish phase might not necessarily follow in mind, investors might want to tread cautiously. As of this writing, the Ethereum token is valued at approximately $4,670, reflecting an over 4% price increase in the past 24 hours.

Dogecoin’s recent move has put traders on edge and split opinion across markets. Prices leapt this week as news and big trade flows pushed the token higher, creating a fresh round of buy-or-hold debates on trading desks and crypto chat rooms. ETF Launch Faces New Delay Based on reports, the eagerly watched US DOGE ETF has been pushed back again, with the earliest new listing window now sliding toward September 18. That postponement briefly dented hopes of immediate ETF access, but it did not stop demand from rising. Some market participants treated the delay as a pause, while others used it to enter positions ahead of any eventual listing. Price Rally Accelerates Momentum Meanwhile, Dogecoin price is up 15% in the last 24 hours, and 38% in the last week. Traders moved the token above recent swing levels, with on-screen quotes clustered in the mid-$0.20s to $0.30s. Volume rose alongside the gains. Quick gains like these tend to attract short-term players and cause order books to thin out, which in turn can make price jumps larger and pullbacks sharper. Institutional Bets Back Dogecoin Reports have disclosed that a corporate plan has added fuel to the rally. CleanCore Solutions announced a Dogecoin treasury effort backed by roughly $175 million in private capital, and reports name high-profile figures among those expected to take board roles. The company says it intends to hold DOGE as a reserve asset, and talk of large buys tied to that plan helped lift sentiment among some investors. What The Price Action Shows Short-term charts look overheated to some and promising to others. Momentum indicators are positive, and a pattern that some chart watchers call a pennant has formed on intraday charts. At the same time, resistance remains above current levels and quick reversals are possible. On-chain flows, futures open interest, and large wallet moves will be key in the coming days because they can flip a green session into a sharp drop if liquidations hit. Dogecoin’s jump this week is driven by a mix of headline buying and reported institutional interest. Reports show a 9% gain in 24 hours and 32% over the week, which is strong but not guaranteed to continue. For some, the setup still looks like a buy on dips. For others, the rally is already too hot to chase without clear entry rules. Volatility is likely to stay high while the ETF story and institutional moves play out. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Highlights include FOMC, BoE, BoC, BoJ, US Retail Sales, UK Inflation, UK Jobs and China activity data Federal Reserve Interest rates MON: Chinese Activity Data (Aug) TUE: UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug) WED: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ CPI Final (Aug), New Zealand GDP (Q2) THU: BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB Announcement FRI: Quad Witching, BoJ Announcement, Japanese CPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian Retail Sales (Jul) CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (MON) Chinese Retail Sales data for August is expected at 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%), Industrial Production is expected at 5.8% Y/Y (prev. 5.7%), and Fixed Asset Investments are expected at 1.4% Y/Y (prev. 1.6%). The desk at ING anticipates a slight recovery in Retail Sales to 4.0% Y/Y, underpinned by a rebound from Julyʼs weather-related disruptions, whilst industrial production and fixed-asset investment are seen moderating to 5.6% Y/Y and 1.5% YTD, respectively. The monthly myriad of data sees the release of House Prices, which are expected to reinforce the weakening momentum in the property market. Analysts note that while Julyʼs softness was partly attributed to adverse weather, “So, August will be an important gauge of whether the slowdown was a blip or the start of a trend”, posits ING UK JOBS REPORT (TUE) Expectations are for the 3M unemployment rate for July to remain at 4.7% and headline 3M/YY wage growth to tick higher to 4.7% from 4.6%. As a reminder, the prior release saw the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.7%, employment change rise to 238k from 134k, the contraction in HMRC payrolls change slow to 8k from 26k, and headline 3M/YY earnings growth slow to a still-elevated level of 4.6% from 5.0%. At the time of the prior report, Morgan Stanley opined that “slack keeps building up in the UK labour market, but not at a pace that would tilt the BoE’s firm focus away from food and headline inflation, onto the real economy”. This time around, MS looks for vacancies to be largely unchanged, a slowdown in employment growth to 200k and a pick-up in the unemployment rate to 4.7%. However, the desk highlights ongoing inaccuracies surrounding ONS data collection. From a pay perspective, MS expects ex-bonus 3M/YY wage growth of 4.64%, noting the absence of any major pay deals in July. From a policy perspective, a soft outturn could prompt some dovish pricing around the BoE; however, the looming inflation report the next day will likely temper the extent of such bets. US RETAIL SALES (TUE) Analysts expect US retail sales to rise +0.3% M/M in August (prev. 0.5%), while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the July reading. Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data notes total credit and debit card spending per household rose by 1.7% Y/Y in August (vs 1.8% Y/Y in July), with seasonally adjusted spending per household +0.4% M/M, the third straight increase. BofA also noted that income and spending growth diverged further in August, with weaker growth among younger generations and Gen X; slower labour-market gains, especially smaller pay bumps from job changes, are weighing on younger cohorts, the bank writes. Elsewhere, it said that easing housing costs, reflected in lower new rent payments, could help narrow the homeowner-renter spending gap. CANADIAN CPI (TUE) Canada inflation will help shape expectations for more easing from the BoC. Interest rates in Canada are currently set at the midpoint of the neutral estimate, but recent data has bolstered expectations for more easing due to a slowdown in economic growth and the labour market in the face of tariffs. Inflation has remained within the BoC’s 1-3% target, albeit towards the top end of the range. Within the latest BoC Summary of Deliberations, the BoC noted how the current tariff scenario outlined how the BoC expects economic growth to resume in the third quarter and inflation to remain around 2%. It also noted that inflation occupied much of the deliberations, which shows the BoC are still cognizant of the inflation trajectory. Members agreed that the degree of firmness in underlying inflation was an important consideration for the policy decision in July. Federal Reserve Interest rates FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% at next weekʼs confab, according to 105 of the 107 economists polled by Reuters. The decision will likely be underpinned by softening labour market conditions, including stalling job growth in August and downward revisions to prior 12-month employment data, which are now seen as outweighing inflation risks. There is a possibility that we could see dissents at the meeting, since not all Committee members are fully aligned on a September rate cut; Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) and Fed’s Schmid (2025 voter) could dissent to keep rates unchanged; and additionally, if his nomination is confirmed ahead of the meeting, there some speculate that Stephen Miran could even vote for a larger 50bps reduction, while Governors Bowman and Waller (who both have dovishly dissented previously) could also favour of a larger move, though this is seen as less likely. Wells Fargo writes that “since the FOMC last met in July, a more precarious picture of the labour market has emerged, while the inflation outlook has been little changed, and as a result, we expect the FOMC will resume lowering the fed funds rate at its September meeting with a 25bps cut.” Money markets are fully discounting a 25bps reduction, and through the end of this year, are almost fully pricing in two further rate reductions in 2025 (70bps of cuts is being priced at the time of writing). Analysts will also be watching the updated economic projections; currently, the SEPs pencil in rates falling to 3.75- 4.00% by the end of this year, and then down to 3.50-3.75% in 2026, being reduced further to 3.25-3.50% in 2027, before settling around the neutral rate of 3.00% in the long-term – 150bps below current levels (implying six 25bps reductions to the terminal rate). Wells Fargo says “the updated Summary of Economic Projections is likely to signal that additional easing will follow September’s cut, with the fed funds rate likely to end 2025 and 2026 lower than previously projected.” Wells thinks the updated dot plot is expected to signal increased easing, with the 2025 median projecting 75bps of cuts, up from 50bps in June, and the 2026 median falling 50bps to 3.125%, implying an additional 25bps cut. Longer-run projections are expected to remain unchanged, reflecting stable inflation and rising full-employment risks. Into the meeting, there are some uncertainties around voting members; Lawyers for President Trump asked the DC Court of Appeals to allow him to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook before next weekʼs FOMC meeting after a lower court blocked her removal while her lawsuit proceeds; meanwhile, the US Senate plans a full vote on Fed Board nominee Stephen Miranʼs nomination Monday, leaving a narrow window for him to be sworn in before the meeting – Miran is likely to be a dovish member, if confirmed. Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days BOC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The BoC is expected to resume rate cuts, taking interest rates to below the current midpoint of the BoC’s neutral estimate. The majority of analysts surveyed by Reuters expect a 25bps rate cut, while also expecting another cut by year-end. Recent soft economic growth and labour market data has bolstered rate cut expectations as tariffs continue to weigh on the economy. The prior statement noted “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”. Growth data disappointed while the labour market continues to deteriorate, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.1% from 6.9%. Money markets are now pricing in 23bps of easing at next week’s meeting with 42bps of easing priced by year-end, which fully prices one rate cut, with a 68% probability of another by the end of 2025. ING is expecting a 25bps rate cut and another in Q4, and notes that CAD should remain weak in the crosses. Note, the upcoming meeting will be accompanied by the usual Governor Macklem press conference, but there will not be updated economic forecasts. BCB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The weekly BCB economist poll has been suggesting that the Selic rate is expected to remain at the current 15.00% through the end of this year, with economists seeing a reduction to 12.5% next year. Oxford Economics says the BCB will take time before restarting a normalisation cycle. “Despite a sequence of positive inflation releases, we still expect the central bank to keep the benchmark Selic rate on hold at 15% until the beginning of 2026,” OxEco says, noting that “long-term inflation expectations have reverted down to 3.5% in the past few weeks but remain above the target’s midpoint, warranting caution from the BCB’s board.” In recent weeks, BCB Chief Galipolo said that interest rates are at a level they safely consider restrictive, inflation convergence to the target is happening slowly, and this is what has demanded a more restrictive monetary policy. Galipolo added that even with a restrictive interest rate, they continue to show resilience in the job market, which is still quite strong. Away from the central bank, but of course relevant for decision making, tariffs remain in heavy focus, and this week Brazil President Lula says he does not fear new sanctions from the US in a pre-recorded interview to Band TV Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days UK INFLATION (WED) Expectations are for August Y/Y headline CPI to rise to 3.9% from 3.8%, core to decline to 3.7% from 3.8% and services to remain at 5%. As a reminder, the prior release saw Y/Y headline CPI rise to 3.8% from 3.6%, core tick higher to 3.8% from 3.7% and services advance to 5.0% from 4.7%. At the time, ING highlighted that the increase in services inflation, which had follow-through into core prices, was “overwhelmingly down to a larger-than-usual rise in airfares” and was something the BoE “can safely ignore”. It also observed that “the Bankʼs preferred measure of services inflation, excluding volatile/indexed categories, to be essentially flat in annual terms. And at 4.2%, this measure is a fair bit below overall services inflation”. This time around, Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that “a jump in food price inflation, a fall in motor fuels last August dropping out of the annual inflation comparison and hotel prices inflated by an Oasis concert on CPI collection day should more than offset slowing airfare inflation”. As such, the consultancy looks for a 3.9% headline print, which would be 0.1ppts above the MPC forecast and for services to slow to 4.8%. Moving forward, PM now sees “inflation peaking at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% before”. From a policy perspective, given the expected peak in inflation for the September report, which is set to be released on October 22nd, markets remain of the view that a November cut is unlikely and prices just a circa 20% chance of such an outcome. The next 25bps cut is not fully priced until March 2026. NEW ZEALAND GDP (WED) There are currently no expectations for New Zealandʼs Q2 GDP, with the priors printing at 0.8% Q/Q for Q1 and -0.7% Y/Y for Q1. Analysts at Westpac forecast a 0.4% contraction in Q2, but stress that the decline is largely attributable to residual seasonality in the national accounts – which tends to weigh on June-quarter growth by around 0.5ppts while boosting December-quarter readings by a similar margin, the desk says, “Looking beyond this distortion, we expect a mixed growth picture, with evidence that the economy has lost some momentum compared to the strong start to this year.” From the RBNZ, the statement of the August decision suggested “New Zealandʼs economic recovery stalled in the second quarter of this year. Spending by households and businesses has been constrained by global economic policy uncertainty, falling employment, higher prices for some essentials, and declining house prices.” BOE ANNOUNCEMENT (THU) Expectations are unanimous that the BoE will hold the Bank Rate at 4% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. The decision to stand pat on rates is expected to come via a 7-2 vote split with dovish dissent from Taylor and Dhingra. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw policymakers cut the Bank Rate by 25bps with a 5-4 vote split (vs. exp. 7-2), which followed a second round of voting. The first round had seen four votes for unchanged, four for a 25bps reduction and Taylor back a deeper 50bps reduction. Taylor opted to switch to a shallower 25bps vote to avoid an unchanged rate. Within the statement, the Bank opted to maintain guidance of a “gradual and careful” approach to rate cuts but remove language that monetary policy needs to “remain restrictive”. The hawkish vote split saw a scaling back of dovish BoE bets with data prints since the meeting, adding to the dwindling expectations of further loosening. To recap, June GDP metrics came in firmer-than-expected, the labour market has continued to cool but at a reduced rate, services inflation ticked higher to an elevated rate of 5% and the August PMI composite PMI moved further into expansionary territory. Commentary from MPC members (ex-Taylor) at the TSC hearing earlier this month continued to convey caution over the persistence of underlying inflation. As such, there is little motivation for the MPC to ease policy at this meeting. Until now, the MPC has opted to cut rates on a quarterly basis, alongside MPR meetings. The next of these MPR meetings is on 6th November. However, given the hawkish vote split last month and expectations that the September CPI report (due on October 22nd) could see inflation hit 4%, markets only price a circa 16% chance of a cut with the next 25bps reduction not fully priced until April 2026. Aside from the rate decision and vote split, attention will be on the MPCʼs announcement on QT. On which, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects policymakers to slow QT to GBP 70bln per annum from October (vs. prev. GBP 100bln). Pantheon adds that GBP 70bln “would double the low pace of active sales relative to the past year, so risks skew to a bigger reduction in QT. But the MPC will likely reduce the risks to yields by skewing sales to shorter durations”. NORGES BANK ANNOUNCEMENT (THU) Norges Bank is expected to deliver a 25bps cut at Septemberʼs meeting to 4.00%, but this is likely to be a very close decision; markets currently assign a 60% chance of such a move. At the last meeting, the Bank kept rates steady at 4.25%, suggesting that restrictive monetary policy is needed “but that it will likely be appropriate to continue with a cautious normalisation of the policy rate ahead”. Back to September, there are several factors which policymakers will keep an eye on. Starting with inflation, both headline and core metrics printed in line with expectations; notably, the CPI-ATE Y/Y figure was in line with Norges Bankʼs own forecast. So whilst still at an elevated (but expected) headline level, the inner components showed that rent inflation has stabilised whilst food prices declined more than expected, which has and continues to be a source of upward price pressure on inflation. However, analysts at SEB believe that the inner components are still “worrisome” for policymakers. Overall, ING describes Norwegian inflation as “sticky”. On the economy, the latest GDP metrics were stronger than expected, rising 0.60% (exp. 0.3%, Norges Bank forecast 0.3%). As for the Bankʼs latest Regional Network Report, it highlighted stable growth prospects; “contacts expect output growth to remain elevated through 2025 H2”. On jobs, “slightly more contacts are facing recruitment difficulties” and annual wage growth projections were unchanged. Given the mixed/hawkish data, contrasting with the guidance from June for a cut, analysts differ on what Norges Bank will opt to do; SEB sees the Bank delivering a 25bps cut, although it now sees upside risks to its terminal rate forecast. ING also favour a cut, suggesting that recent upbeat growth expectations are “probably incorporating lower rates this quarter”, and recent NOK strength plays in favour of a cut – but also reiterates that this is a close decision. On the flip side, Nordea stresses uncertainty around the decision, but believes rates will be maintained. BOJ ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI) The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. A Reuters poll showed 96% of economists expect the BoJ to remain on hold, while money markets price around a 95% likelihood for no changes in rates and just a 5% chance of 25bps hike. As a reminder, the BoJ provided no surprises during the last meeting at the end of July, where it kept its short-term rate unchanged via a unanimous decision and reiterated it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. It reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. BoJ also stated that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter, and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. Furthermore, the central bank acknowledged that real interest rates are at extremely low levels and that there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments, while BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates during the post-meeting presser and noted there was no large change to the central outlook that the growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. The major development in Japan since then was the recent resignation by Japanese PM Ishiba, which has raised political uncertainty in Japan, with the next PM to be determined in the LDP leadership election on October 4th, and is likely to face increased pressure from smaller parties for more fiscal support. The resignation was seen as a potential factor that could delay the timing of the BoJ resuming its policy normalisation. A recent Reuters source report noted that although political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ’s normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike, while the sources added that the “BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence” and there is “no rush…as long as it gets another rate hike done possibly by early next year”. Conversely, sources recently cited by Bloomberg were much more hawkish, noting the BoJ is likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th but is said to see some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation. The sources also stated that the BoJ sees steady progress towards the price target and views the US trade deal as removing some risks to growth, while some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October. JAPANESE CPI (FRI) There are currently no expectations for the Japanese CPI metrics, which are due to be released around three hours before the BoJ policy decision. Headline inflation is expected by ING to ease to 2.9% Y/Y in August (prev. 3.1%), largely on base effects from last yearʼs elevated energy prices. However, core CPI is seen remaining above 3%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures. July CPI data showed headline easing to 3.1% while core inflation rose to 3.4%. ING suggests sticky core inflation will keep alive the prospect of an October rate hike, particularly as October is typically when companies reset prices for the second half of the fiscal year. Recent sources via Bloomberg (9th Sept.) indicate the BoJ still sees a chance of hiking this year, albeit with rates likely left unchanged on 19th September, while Reuters reports the Bank is considering a modest reduction in super-long JGB purchases in Q4. UK RETAIL SALES (FRI) Expectations are for headline M/M retail sales in August to rise 0.3% (prev. 0.6%) with the core rate seen remaining at 0.5%. In terms of recent retail indicators, Y/Y BRC retail sales in August rose 2.9% (prior 1.8%) with the accompanying report noting “sunny weather and an interest rate cut helped August round off a solid summer of sales”. However, the consortium notes that “despite a better summer, retailers approach the ‘golden quarterʼ with caution. With the later-than-expected Budget falling just days before Black Friday, many are uneasy about how consumer confidence and spending could be impacted by tax rise speculation in the run-up to Christmas”. Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Consumer Spending report showed “overall Retail spending increased by 0.6% in August 2025 when compared to this time last year”. Barclays observed that “health & beauty retailers led retail growth in August, driven by the enduring ‘lipstick effectʼ as consumers prioritised small, feel-good luxuries. Furniture stores also performed strongly, while social media trends further boosted interest in wellness, skincare, and other indulgences”. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. 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