Redator

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical turning point, successfully flipping a key horizontal support zone that previously acted as resistance. With momentum now building, the focus has shifted to the next major test: the $117,000 resistance level. A decisive move above this threshold would not only confirm the continuation of the current rally but also set the stage for a potential run toward new highs. Daily Support Flip Confirms Bullish Control Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent market update, pointed out that BTC is showing renewed strength on the daily timeframe. The leading cryptocurrency successfully flipped a key horizontal zone into support, a move that highlights growing buyer dominance in the market. This structural shift is seen as a positive development for bulls, laying the groundwork for further upside momentum. With buyers firmly in control, Bitcoin’s price action is now being driven higher toward the previous swing high near $117,000. This level has emerged as the next significant hurdle for bulls, acting as a critical area where market sentiment could either extend the rally or spark profit-taking. The analysis further noted that if Bitcoin manages to push above $117,000, the level itself could turn into an attractive area for potential short setups. However, such a strategy carries risks, as the invalidation point would be a decisive breakout above BTC’s all-time high. Until then, $117,000 stands out as the key level of interest for market participants. How Bitcoin reacts in this zone will determine whether it consolidates, faces rejection, or surges higher. For traders, this level offers a critical point to evaluate possible entries, exits, and positioning as the next major move takes shape. Bitcoin Struggles To Secure A Hold Above $116,000 According to a recent post by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin is continuing its upward trajectory. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to firmly hold above the $116,000 level, which suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, buyers have yet to fully overcome this significant hurdle. Crypto VIP Signal’s analysis notes that the entire market is looking positive, but a temporary slowdown can be expected. This is primarily attributed to a decline in trading volume, which is a common occurrence on weekends as activity from institutional traders and large investors often lessens. Given these conditions, Crypto VIP Signal predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a period of sideways movement. The consolidation phase would allow the market to digest recent gains and build the necessary momentum to attempt another push past the $116,000 resistance.

Despite experiencing a significant plunge from ATH levels earlier last month, the Bitcoin price continues to test crucial levels that could shape the trajectory of its next move. A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Casitrades suggests that the coming days could define whether the broader market will face a macro correction or extend its bullish momentum. For now, Fibonacci zones, Elliott Wave structures, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) behaviour align to build a critical narrative around BTC’s price direction. Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin Price Macro Correction On Friday, Casitrades explained in an X social media post that Bitcoin’s recent price surge has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $116,000, an important milestone in the recovery phase. Interestingly, despite this sudden push higher, the RSI highlighted on the price chart is yet to show the exhaustion one would typically expect at a major top. This suggests buyers may still have room to drive prices further upward before hitting a ceiling. Notably, the analyst pointed out $118,000 as the next critical level to watch, noting that it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Casitrades has described this area as a decisive confluence point. A sharp rejection here could confirm that Bitcoin’s bull run has officially ended, reinforcing the theory that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a Wave 2 macro correction phase. On the other hand, the analyst noted that forming a top around the decisive confluence point would confirm that BTC is not ready to challenge or break into new all-time highs and could instead retrace deeper. As the chart illustrates, potential downside targets lie well below Bitcoin’s current price levels above $115,800, hinting that a failure at $118,000 could lead to a steeper correction that might drag the cryptocurrency back into the $110,000 – $106,000 zone in the near term. $122,000 Marks Final Test For Macro Correction While $118,000 remains the first line of resistance for Bitcoin, Casitrades highlighted that the cryptocurrency could extend its rally higher into the $120,000 – $122,000 zone if momentum persists. This level is viewed as the final test that will decide whether the macro correction holds or fails. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it an even more formidable resistance area. The expectation is that if Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of exhaustion and the cryptocurrency faces strong rejection in this region, the correction could be swift and significant. In this scenario, Bitcoin would set up for a macro downturn, confirming the theory that the rally from recent lows has merely been a corrective leg. The projected correction could then reset the broader structure, allowing for healthier long-term price action. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through $122,000 convincingly, Casitrades notes that it would invalidate the macro correction narrative altogether and potentially send it to price levels between $122,000 – $124,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Many crypto analysts and investors are very bullish on XRP, providing lofty price targets. However, Austin Hilton, a popular crypto commentator, has declared that investors are not bullish enough on XRP, while also admitting that he too had underestimated the token’s true potential. His latest outlook is that XRP’s price upside is far greater than most expect, and this realization comes from examining where Bitcoin could be in the coming years. Bitcoin’s Billion-Dollar Forecast And What It Means For XRP XRP price predictions have mostly always been anchored on discussions and expectations of adoption by banks in cross-border settlement. However, according to Austin Hilton, all these catalysts could be left aside, and XRP’s price could surge massively in the years ahead, especially if Bitcoin fulfills lofty projections. According to the pundit, the scale of the crypto opportunity in the coming decades is so immense that current investors are not bullish enough and accumulating enough XRP. He referenced a circulating forecast that predicted that Bitcoin could reach as high as $1 billion per coin by 2038, a figure championed by high-profile names such as Michael Saylor. This prediction stunned him, as the highest long-term projections he had seen had put the Bitcoin price at $13 million. Bringing the conversation back to XRP, he noted that if this projected Bitcoin rally pushes the entire market upward, as it has always done, then XRP’s value could rise even more in relative terms. Therefore, XRP has the room to act as a multiplier in comparison to Bitcoin’s moves because of its smaller market cap. The Roadmap To Double And Triple-Digit XRP As noted by Hilton, the $1 billion projection is very speculative, adding that “that absolutely floored me and blew me away.” However, the analyst also pointed out that even shorter-term moves in Bitcoin could have an outsized impact on XRP. For instance, he predicted that the XRP price will surge to between $15 and $20 if Bitcoin were to reach $200,000 by the end of the year. Furthermore, he added that XRP’s price could realistically climb to triple digits if Bitcoin advances to the $1 million price level in the coming years. In this case, the analyst estimated a potential of at least $100 per coin. Interestingly, these price targets do not even account for catalysts within XRP’s own ecosystem, such as Ripple’s cross-border payment network, acquisitions, and growing adoption among banks. XRP’s upside could be even greater when these factors are factored in. The pundit’s bottom line was that XRP holders need to raise their level of conviction. Bitcoin currently makes up around 60% of the entire crypto market, meaning that any explosive growth in its value is almost certain to lift other large market cap cryptocurrencies. XRP has a smaller cap than Bitcoin, so it could post even stronger relative gains in such an environment. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.14, up by 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The latest on-chain data shows that the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, may be currently undervalued. Having witnessed a strong resurgence in the past week, the altcoin could be on the verge of an extended rally over the next few weeks. Ethereum’s NVT Ratio Hits New Record Low In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst CryptoOnchain reported that there has been a disproportionate increase in transaction volume concerning ETH compared to its market capitalization. The relevant indicator here is the Ethereum NVT (Network Value to Transactions ratio) (30-day SMA), which measures the ratio of Ethereum’s market capitalization to its daily transaction volume over the span of 30 days. CryptoOnchain revealed that the 30-day moving average NVT recently hit its lowest point ever recorded. As explained by the on-chain analyst, this could suggest two things: firstly, that the Ethereum token is undervalued. For context, a low NVT reflects very high transaction volume compared to a relatively low market capitalization. What this means is that the Ethereum network is being heavily used, but the price isn’t showing its worth as much as its usage suggests. Following this logic, one could conclude the market is currently undervaluing Ethereum’s utility. The second indication from the historically low NVT is that the increase in transaction volume could be due to “temporary factors such as DeFi, NFT events, or large capital movements.” According to the analyst, these temporary factors do not necessarily mean sustainable growth for the ETH price. What To Expect CryptoOnchain cited historical occurrences to explain the typical case where an NVT bottom is a result of market undervaluation. In this case, it has been observed that sharp NVT bottoms precede bullish phases. However, in what was a caveat, the online pundit mentioned that there have been cases where very low NVT levels were accompanied by further price declines. Seeing that the Ethereum NVT is not just at a mere low level, but at its all-time low, it seems more likely that the market is undervaluing the token’s worth. It is therefore not out of the question to expect a more upward swing in the price of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Ethereum To $6,800 By Year End? CME Futures Data Shows Record Institutional Demand Nevertheless, with the possibility that a bullish phase might not necessarily follow in mind, investors might want to tread cautiously. As of this writing, the Ethereum token is valued at approximately $4,670, reflecting an over 4% price increase in the past 24 hours.

Dogecoin’s recent move has put traders on edge and split opinion across markets. Prices leapt this week as news and big trade flows pushed the token higher, creating a fresh round of buy-or-hold debates on trading desks and crypto chat rooms. ETF Launch Faces New Delay Based on reports, the eagerly watched US DOGE ETF has been pushed back again, with the earliest new listing window now sliding toward September 18. That postponement briefly dented hopes of immediate ETF access, but it did not stop demand from rising. Some market participants treated the delay as a pause, while others used it to enter positions ahead of any eventual listing. Price Rally Accelerates Momentum Meanwhile, Dogecoin price is up 15% in the last 24 hours, and 38% in the last week. Traders moved the token above recent swing levels, with on-screen quotes clustered in the mid-$0.20s to $0.30s. Volume rose alongside the gains. Quick gains like these tend to attract short-term players and cause order books to thin out, which in turn can make price jumps larger and pullbacks sharper. Institutional Bets Back Dogecoin Reports have disclosed that a corporate plan has added fuel to the rally. CleanCore Solutions announced a Dogecoin treasury effort backed by roughly $175 million in private capital, and reports name high-profile figures among those expected to take board roles. The company says it intends to hold DOGE as a reserve asset, and talk of large buys tied to that plan helped lift sentiment among some investors. What The Price Action Shows Short-term charts look overheated to some and promising to others. Momentum indicators are positive, and a pattern that some chart watchers call a pennant has formed on intraday charts. At the same time, resistance remains above current levels and quick reversals are possible. On-chain flows, futures open interest, and large wallet moves will be key in the coming days because they can flip a green session into a sharp drop if liquidations hit. Dogecoin’s jump this week is driven by a mix of headline buying and reported institutional interest. Reports show a 9% gain in 24 hours and 32% over the week, which is strong but not guaranteed to continue. For some, the setup still looks like a buy on dips. For others, the rally is already too hot to chase without clear entry rules. Volatility is likely to stay high while the ETF story and institutional moves play out. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Highlights include FOMC, BoE, BoC, BoJ, US Retail Sales, UK Inflation, UK Jobs and China activity data Federal Reserve Interest rates MON: Chinese Activity Data (Aug) TUE: UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug) WED: FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ CPI Final (Aug), New Zealand GDP (Q2) THU: BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB Announcement FRI: Quad Witching, BoJ Announcement, Japanese CPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian Retail Sales (Jul) CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (MON) Chinese Retail Sales data for August is expected at 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.7%), Industrial Production is expected at 5.8% Y/Y (prev. 5.7%), and Fixed Asset Investments are expected at 1.4% Y/Y (prev. 1.6%). The desk at ING anticipates a slight recovery in Retail Sales to 4.0% Y/Y, underpinned by a rebound from Julyʼs weather-related disruptions, whilst industrial production and fixed-asset investment are seen moderating to 5.6% Y/Y and 1.5% YTD, respectively. The monthly myriad of data sees the release of House Prices, which are expected to reinforce the weakening momentum in the property market. Analysts note that while Julyʼs softness was partly attributed to adverse weather, “So, August will be an important gauge of whether the slowdown was a blip or the start of a trend”, posits ING UK JOBS REPORT (TUE) Expectations are for the 3M unemployment rate for July to remain at 4.7% and headline 3M/YY wage growth to tick higher to 4.7% from 4.6%. As a reminder, the prior release saw the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.7%, employment change rise to 238k from 134k, the contraction in HMRC payrolls change slow to 8k from 26k, and headline 3M/YY earnings growth slow to a still-elevated level of 4.6% from 5.0%. At the time of the prior report, Morgan Stanley opined that “slack keeps building up in the UK labour market, but not at a pace that would tilt the BoE’s firm focus away from food and headline inflation, onto the real economy”. This time around, MS looks for vacancies to be largely unchanged, a slowdown in employment growth to 200k and a pick-up in the unemployment rate to 4.7%. However, the desk highlights ongoing inaccuracies surrounding ONS data collection. From a pay perspective, MS expects ex-bonus 3M/YY wage growth of 4.64%, noting the absence of any major pay deals in July. From a policy perspective, a soft outturn could prompt some dovish pricing around the BoE; however, the looming inflation report the next day will likely temper the extent of such bets. US RETAIL SALES (TUE) Analysts expect US retail sales to rise +0.3% M/M in August (prev. 0.5%), while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the July reading. Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data notes total credit and debit card spending per household rose by 1.7% Y/Y in August (vs 1.8% Y/Y in July), with seasonally adjusted spending per household +0.4% M/M, the third straight increase. BofA also noted that income and spending growth diverged further in August, with weaker growth among younger generations and Gen X; slower labour-market gains, especially smaller pay bumps from job changes, are weighing on younger cohorts, the bank writes. Elsewhere, it said that easing housing costs, reflected in lower new rent payments, could help narrow the homeowner-renter spending gap. CANADIAN CPI (TUE) Canada inflation will help shape expectations for more easing from the BoC. Interest rates in Canada are currently set at the midpoint of the neutral estimate, but recent data has bolstered expectations for more easing due to a slowdown in economic growth and the labour market in the face of tariffs. Inflation has remained within the BoC’s 1-3% target, albeit towards the top end of the range. Within the latest BoC Summary of Deliberations, the BoC noted how the current tariff scenario outlined how the BoC expects economic growth to resume in the third quarter and inflation to remain around 2%. It also noted that inflation occupied much of the deliberations, which shows the BoC are still cognizant of the inflation trajectory. Members agreed that the degree of firmness in underlying inflation was an important consideration for the policy decision in July. Federal Reserve Interest rates FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25% at next weekʼs confab, according to 105 of the 107 economists polled by Reuters. The decision will likely be underpinned by softening labour market conditions, including stalling job growth in August and downward revisions to prior 12-month employment data, which are now seen as outweighing inflation risks. There is a possibility that we could see dissents at the meeting, since not all Committee members are fully aligned on a September rate cut; Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) and Fed’s Schmid (2025 voter) could dissent to keep rates unchanged; and additionally, if his nomination is confirmed ahead of the meeting, there some speculate that Stephen Miran could even vote for a larger 50bps reduction, while Governors Bowman and Waller (who both have dovishly dissented previously) could also favour of a larger move, though this is seen as less likely. Wells Fargo writes that “since the FOMC last met in July, a more precarious picture of the labour market has emerged, while the inflation outlook has been little changed, and as a result, we expect the FOMC will resume lowering the fed funds rate at its September meeting with a 25bps cut.” Money markets are fully discounting a 25bps reduction, and through the end of this year, are almost fully pricing in two further rate reductions in 2025 (70bps of cuts is being priced at the time of writing). Analysts will also be watching the updated economic projections; currently, the SEPs pencil in rates falling to 3.75- 4.00% by the end of this year, and then down to 3.50-3.75% in 2026, being reduced further to 3.25-3.50% in 2027, before settling around the neutral rate of 3.00% in the long-term – 150bps below current levels (implying six 25bps reductions to the terminal rate). Wells Fargo says “the updated Summary of Economic Projections is likely to signal that additional easing will follow September’s cut, with the fed funds rate likely to end 2025 and 2026 lower than previously projected.” Wells thinks the updated dot plot is expected to signal increased easing, with the 2025 median projecting 75bps of cuts, up from 50bps in June, and the 2026 median falling 50bps to 3.125%, implying an additional 25bps cut. Longer-run projections are expected to remain unchanged, reflecting stable inflation and rising full-employment risks. Into the meeting, there are some uncertainties around voting members; Lawyers for President Trump asked the DC Court of Appeals to allow him to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook before next weekʼs FOMC meeting after a lower court blocked her removal while her lawsuit proceeds; meanwhile, the US Senate plans a full vote on Fed Board nominee Stephen Miranʼs nomination Monday, leaving a narrow window for him to be sworn in before the meeting – Miran is likely to be a dovish member, if confirmed. Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days BOC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The BoC is expected to resume rate cuts, taking interest rates to below the current midpoint of the BoC’s neutral estimate. The majority of analysts surveyed by Reuters expect a 25bps rate cut, while also expecting another cut by year-end. Recent soft economic growth and labour market data has bolstered rate cut expectations as tariffs continue to weigh on the economy. The prior statement noted “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”. Growth data disappointed while the labour market continues to deteriorate, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.1% from 6.9%. Money markets are now pricing in 23bps of easing at next week’s meeting with 42bps of easing priced by year-end, which fully prices one rate cut, with a 68% probability of another by the end of 2025. ING is expecting a 25bps rate cut and another in Q4, and notes that CAD should remain weak in the crosses. Note, the upcoming meeting will be accompanied by the usual Governor Macklem press conference, but there will not be updated economic forecasts. BCB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (WED) The weekly BCB economist poll has been suggesting that the Selic rate is expected to remain at the current 15.00% through the end of this year, with economists seeing a reduction to 12.5% next year. Oxford Economics says the BCB will take time before restarting a normalisation cycle. “Despite a sequence of positive inflation releases, we still expect the central bank to keep the benchmark Selic rate on hold at 15% until the beginning of 2026,” OxEco says, noting that “long-term inflation expectations have reverted down to 3.5% in the past few weeks but remain above the target’s midpoint, warranting caution from the BCB’s board.” In recent weeks, BCB Chief Galipolo said that interest rates are at a level they safely consider restrictive, inflation convergence to the target is happening slowly, and this is what has demanded a more restrictive monetary policy. Galipolo added that even with a restrictive interest rate, they continue to show resilience in the job market, which is still quite strong. Away from the central bank, but of course relevant for decision making, tariffs remain in heavy focus, and this week Brazil President Lula says he does not fear new sanctions from the US in a pre-recorded interview to Band TV Source: Try Newsquawk free for 7 days UK INFLATION (WED) Expectations are for August Y/Y headline CPI to rise to 3.9% from 3.8%, core to decline to 3.7% from 3.8% and services to remain at 5%. As a reminder, the prior release saw Y/Y headline CPI rise to 3.8% from 3.6%, core tick higher to 3.8% from 3.7% and services advance to 5.0% from 4.7%. At the time, ING highlighted that the increase in services inflation, which had follow-through into core prices, was “overwhelmingly down to a larger-than-usual rise in airfares” and was something the BoE “can safely ignore”. It also observed that “the Bankʼs preferred measure of services inflation, excluding volatile/indexed categories, to be essentially flat in annual terms. And at 4.2%, this measure is a fair bit below overall services inflation”. This time around, Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that “a jump in food price inflation, a fall in motor fuels last August dropping out of the annual inflation comparison and hotel prices inflated by an Oasis concert on CPI collection day should more than offset slowing airfare inflation”. As such, the consultancy looks for a 3.9% headline print, which would be 0.1ppts above the MPC forecast and for services to slow to 4.8%. Moving forward, PM now sees “inflation peaking at 4.1% in September, up from 4.0% before”. From a policy perspective, given the expected peak in inflation for the September report, which is set to be released on October 22nd, markets remain of the view that a November cut is unlikely and prices just a circa 20% chance of such an outcome. The next 25bps cut is not fully priced until March 2026. NEW ZEALAND GDP (WED) There are currently no expectations for New Zealandʼs Q2 GDP, with the priors printing at 0.8% Q/Q for Q1 and -0.7% Y/Y for Q1. Analysts at Westpac forecast a 0.4% contraction in Q2, but stress that the decline is largely attributable to residual seasonality in the national accounts – which tends to weigh on June-quarter growth by around 0.5ppts while boosting December-quarter readings by a similar margin, the desk says, “Looking beyond this distortion, we expect a mixed growth picture, with evidence that the economy has lost some momentum compared to the strong start to this year.” From the RBNZ, the statement of the August decision suggested “New Zealandʼs economic recovery stalled in the second quarter of this year. Spending by households and businesses has been constrained by global economic policy uncertainty, falling employment, higher prices for some essentials, and declining house prices.” BOE ANNOUNCEMENT (THU) Expectations are unanimous that the BoE will hold the Bank Rate at 4% with markets assigning a 99% chance of such an outcome. The decision to stand pat on rates is expected to come via a 7-2 vote split with dovish dissent from Taylor and Dhingra. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw policymakers cut the Bank Rate by 25bps with a 5-4 vote split (vs. exp. 7-2), which followed a second round of voting. The first round had seen four votes for unchanged, four for a 25bps reduction and Taylor back a deeper 50bps reduction. Taylor opted to switch to a shallower 25bps vote to avoid an unchanged rate. Within the statement, the Bank opted to maintain guidance of a “gradual and careful” approach to rate cuts but remove language that monetary policy needs to “remain restrictive”. The hawkish vote split saw a scaling back of dovish BoE bets with data prints since the meeting, adding to the dwindling expectations of further loosening. To recap, June GDP metrics came in firmer-than-expected, the labour market has continued to cool but at a reduced rate, services inflation ticked higher to an elevated rate of 5% and the August PMI composite PMI moved further into expansionary territory. Commentary from MPC members (ex-Taylor) at the TSC hearing earlier this month continued to convey caution over the persistence of underlying inflation. As such, there is little motivation for the MPC to ease policy at this meeting. Until now, the MPC has opted to cut rates on a quarterly basis, alongside MPR meetings. The next of these MPR meetings is on 6th November. However, given the hawkish vote split last month and expectations that the September CPI report (due on October 22nd) could see inflation hit 4%, markets only price a circa 16% chance of a cut with the next 25bps reduction not fully priced until April 2026. Aside from the rate decision and vote split, attention will be on the MPCʼs announcement on QT. On which, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects policymakers to slow QT to GBP 70bln per annum from October (vs. prev. GBP 100bln). Pantheon adds that GBP 70bln “would double the low pace of active sales relative to the past year, so risks skew to a bigger reduction in QT. But the MPC will likely reduce the risks to yields by skewing sales to shorter durations”. NORGES BANK ANNOUNCEMENT (THU) Norges Bank is expected to deliver a 25bps cut at Septemberʼs meeting to 4.00%, but this is likely to be a very close decision; markets currently assign a 60% chance of such a move. At the last meeting, the Bank kept rates steady at 4.25%, suggesting that restrictive monetary policy is needed “but that it will likely be appropriate to continue with a cautious normalisation of the policy rate ahead”. Back to September, there are several factors which policymakers will keep an eye on. Starting with inflation, both headline and core metrics printed in line with expectations; notably, the CPI-ATE Y/Y figure was in line with Norges Bankʼs own forecast. So whilst still at an elevated (but expected) headline level, the inner components showed that rent inflation has stabilised whilst food prices declined more than expected, which has and continues to be a source of upward price pressure on inflation. However, analysts at SEB believe that the inner components are still “worrisome” for policymakers. Overall, ING describes Norwegian inflation as “sticky”. On the economy, the latest GDP metrics were stronger than expected, rising 0.60% (exp. 0.3%, Norges Bank forecast 0.3%). As for the Bankʼs latest Regional Network Report, it highlighted stable growth prospects; “contacts expect output growth to remain elevated through 2025 H2”. On jobs, “slightly more contacts are facing recruitment difficulties” and annual wage growth projections were unchanged. Given the mixed/hawkish data, contrasting with the guidance from June for a cut, analysts differ on what Norges Bank will opt to do; SEB sees the Bank delivering a 25bps cut, although it now sees upside risks to its terminal rate forecast. ING also favour a cut, suggesting that recent upbeat growth expectations are “probably incorporating lower rates this quarter”, and recent NOK strength plays in favour of a cut – but also reiterates that this is a close decision. On the flip side, Nordea stresses uncertainty around the decision, but believes rates will be maintained. BOJ ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI) The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. A Reuters poll showed 96% of economists expect the BoJ to remain on hold, while money markets price around a 95% likelihood for no changes in rates and just a 5% chance of 25bps hike. As a reminder, the BoJ provided no surprises during the last meeting at the end of July, where it kept its short-term rate unchanged via a unanimous decision and reiterated it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. It reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. BoJ also stated that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter, and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. Furthermore, the central bank acknowledged that real interest rates are at extremely low levels and that there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments, while BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates during the post-meeting presser and noted there was no large change to the central outlook that the growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. The major development in Japan since then was the recent resignation by Japanese PM Ishiba, which has raised political uncertainty in Japan, with the next PM to be determined in the LDP leadership election on October 4th, and is likely to face increased pressure from smaller parties for more fiscal support. The resignation was seen as a potential factor that could delay the timing of the BoJ resuming its policy normalisation. A recent Reuters source report noted that although political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ’s normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike, while the sources added that the “BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence” and there is “no rush…as long as it gets another rate hike done possibly by early next year”. Conversely, sources recently cited by Bloomberg were much more hawkish, noting the BoJ is likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th but is said to see some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation. The sources also stated that the BoJ sees steady progress towards the price target and views the US trade deal as removing some risks to growth, while some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October. JAPANESE CPI (FRI) There are currently no expectations for the Japanese CPI metrics, which are due to be released around three hours before the BoJ policy decision. Headline inflation is expected by ING to ease to 2.9% Y/Y in August (prev. 3.1%), largely on base effects from last yearʼs elevated energy prices. However, core CPI is seen remaining above 3%, signalling persistent underlying price pressures. July CPI data showed headline easing to 3.1% while core inflation rose to 3.4%. ING suggests sticky core inflation will keep alive the prospect of an October rate hike, particularly as October is typically when companies reset prices for the second half of the fiscal year. Recent sources via Bloomberg (9th Sept.) indicate the BoJ still sees a chance of hiking this year, albeit with rates likely left unchanged on 19th September, while Reuters reports the Bank is considering a modest reduction in super-long JGB purchases in Q4. UK RETAIL SALES (FRI) Expectations are for headline M/M retail sales in August to rise 0.3% (prev. 0.6%) with the core rate seen remaining at 0.5%. In terms of recent retail indicators, Y/Y BRC retail sales in August rose 2.9% (prior 1.8%) with the accompanying report noting “sunny weather and an interest rate cut helped August round off a solid summer of sales”. However, the consortium notes that “despite a better summer, retailers approach the ‘golden quarterʼ with caution. With the later-than-expected Budget falling just days before Black Friday, many are uneasy about how consumer confidence and spending could be impacted by tax rise speculation in the run-up to Christmas”. Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Consumer Spending report showed “overall Retail spending increased by 0.6% in August 2025 when compared to this time last year”. Barclays observed that “health & beauty retailers led retail growth in August, driven by the enduring ‘lipstick effectʼ as consumers prioritised small, feel-good luxuries. Furniture stores also performed strongly, while social media trends further boosted interest in wellness, skincare, and other indulgences”. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Check out Why Interest Rates Matter The post Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 15-19th September 2025 appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

After hovering around the $300 mark at the start of this week, the Aave price appears to have finally broken out of its consolidatory pattern. On Friday, September 12, the DeFi token made a brief return to the $320 level on the back of a general market surge. The strong momentum of the Aave price movement suggests that the altcoin’s return to $320 might not be a random occurrence. An interesting convergence of an optimistic technical outlook and positive on-chain data paints a picture of what is next for the AAVE token. What Does This Positive Divergence Mean For Aave? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain shared an interesting on-chain insight into the journey of the Aave price from around $130 in late 2024 to above $340 in the year. According to the crypto analyst, Aave’s Market Cap to Total Value Locked (TVL) ratio concurrently dropped to a two-year low as price rose to the 2025 high. The MC/TVL ratio, as the name suggests, is an on-chain metric that compares a token’s market capitalization and the total value locked on its underlying protocol. CryptoOnchain noted that this indicator typically surges in tandem with price, except when the TVL metric grows at a rate faster than the market capitalization. However, the latest drop of the MC/TVL ratio to its lowest level in two years—as price grew—represents a positive divergence, which is likely driven by substantial capital inflows into Aave’s contracts. According to CryptoOnchain, this significant inflow of capital boosts the TVL without the market cap fully reflecting it. The crypto analyst attributed this situation to relative undervaluation—provided that the TVL growth is sustainable and not due to short-term yield farming activities. Overall, this positive divergence could be a bullish catalyst for both the AAVE price and the protocol’s fundamentals. Is $335 The Next Stop For AAVE Price? In a separate analysis on social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez set a target of $335 for the AAVE price. This positive prediction is based on its recent breakout of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart. The falling wedge, which is characterized by two converging downward trendlines, is often seen as a bullish formation. After falling into this pattern towards the end of August, the price of Aave has finally broken out of the falling wedge. According to Martinez, the AAVE price could travel to as high as $335 in its next leg up. This move would represent an over 5% move from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of Aave stands at around $318.5, reflecting an almost 4% jump in the past 24 hours.

The Rio Upgrade has been successfully deployed to the Polygon PoS Amoy Testnet, marking a critical step towards massively scaling the network’s capacity. Polygon has rolled out the Rio Upgrade, a core step in its GigaGas roadmap that reshapes the network’s design. The upgrade aims to lift mainnet capacity to 5,000 transactions per second, a sharp jump from current levels. The upgrade was confirmed by the Polygon team on X, saying: “The Rio Upgrade is live on Polygon PoS Amoy Testnet.” https://TWITTER.com/0xPolygon/status/1966537692763607313 At the center of the upgrade is a new system called Validator-Elected Block Producers (VEBloP). This model shifts more control to validators, who will now play a stronger role in deciding how blocks are produced. Polygon says the change will improve fairness and efficiency while strengthening decentralization. Other changes include stateless block verification, which cuts costs for validators by reducing the data burden of running a node. The upgrade also eliminates block reorganizations, a move meant to ensure greater stability and stop unfair reshuffling of block production. The update is not just technical. It comes at a time when Polygon’s native token, RIO/USDT, is showing signs of recovery. After weeks of falling prices and sideways trading, the token pushed above $0.31 this week. Together, the network overhaul and the token’s rebound mark a notable moment for Polygon. The Rio Upgrade signals where the project is heading: toward higher speed, lower costs, and a structure designed for wider use in payments and asset tokenization. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 RIO Price Prediction: Can RIO Sustain Its Rally Toward the $0.34-$0.35 Resistance Zone? Following several weeks of pressure, RIO has made a sudden recovery, turning around an August decline between $0.34 and $0.23. The turning point came on September 9 when the trading volume increased sharply, and buyers took control and lifted the token further. RIO was driven up to above the 50-day EMA at $0.2729 and the 100-day EMA at $0.2696, with the latest close at $0.3137, which was +3.26% higher than its previous close. (Source – RIO USDT. TradingView) This reversal indicates a bullish realignment, which is usually followed by more powerful rallies. Momentum is evident in the chart. Increasing lows and high green candles are indicative of confidence building, and the decisive move above the $0.30 area has changed the mood. The next key test lies at $0.3176. A clean break into that level might open the road to $0.34, the last seen in mid-August. The support is at the current level of $0.28, and further protection is at the EMA cluster of $0.27. The structure resembles a classic reversal: a long downtrend, followed by accumulation, then a breakout backed by rising volume. That volume profile suggests both retail and institutional money are involved. Analysts say the near-term focus is on the $0.3176-$0.32 range. A sustained push higher could stretch gains toward $0.34-$0.35, a psychological barrier. But if the token fails to defend $0.30, profit-taking may pull it back to $0.28. Overall, the outlook has tilted bullish, though volatility is likely as RIO works through these resistance levels. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 How Will The Rio Upgrade Make Transactions Faster and Cheaper? The Rio Upgrade of Polygon is yet another move towards scaling and remaining competitive by the network. The update is aimed at increasing throughput and reducing transaction finality times, and thus making transactions faster and less expensive to users and developers. Another of the largest changes is the increased role of validators. By assigning them a higher responsibility, Polygon wants to enhance the decentralization of the system and maintain a low-cost system. The changes are helping in its overall objective of establishing the platform that will help it manage global payments and tokenization of real-world assets. The Rio Upgrade is an improvement on a series of significant upgrades in the previous year. In September 2024, Polygon changed the name of its native token to POL, which is used throughout the ecosystem. Next, in June 2025, the Bhilai hard fork released the first step of the GigaGas roadmap, increasing throughput to 1,000 transactions per second and enhancing the stability of gas fees. A month later, Heimdall v2 reduced transaction finality to about five seconds and cleared outdated code. Taken together, these updates show a steady push to reinforce Polygon’s technical foundations. With Rio now live, the network continues to build toward higher efficiency, stability, and decentralization, aiming to keep pace with the demands of an evolving blockchain market. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post RIO Upgrade Goes Live on Polygon Testnet: POL Price Prediction For September 2025 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Amidst a bullish crypto market, Dogecoin (DOGE) prices have surged by nearly 7% in the last day, crossing the $0.280 price margin. Interestingly, prominent market analyst Ali Martinez is tipping the altcoin for much larger gains ahead after stating the market presently remains in a “Buy Zone”. Chart Signals Dogecoin Ready For Next Parabolic Rally On Friday, Ali Martinez shared on X that Dogecoin has re-entered what is a major “buy zone,” with technical patterns suggesting the popular meme coin is on the verge of a sharp breakout. A long-term ascending channel chart, shared by Martinez, highlights how DOGE has consistently bounced from a rising support band, each time triggering parabolic rallies that stunned the market. Notably, these dramatic price surges were seen in 2017, 2021, and again in 2023–2024. For instance, the 2017 breakout saw DOGE soar by more than 9,400%, while the 2021 move produced an even more staggering 13,000% rally, propelling prices above $0.70. More recently, the bounce from the lower channel in late 2023 fueled a more modest but still impressive 240% gain. Currently, Dogecoin sits around $0.28, hugging the lower support band once again. This positioning suggests that, according to the historical trend, DOGE is in a favorable accumulation zone, potentially setting up for its next major upward move. With broader crypto markets stabilizing and altcoins regaining momentum, Dogecoin could once again leverage its historic cyclical behavior to produce another massive price surge. Notably, a sustained breakout above $0.340, the most recent local high, would be the first confirmation of renewed bullish momentum. From there, the growth channel suggests upside targets could extend well beyond $1. However, Dogecoin could also remain in consolidation if Bitcoin dominance rises or perhaps the current capital flowing into altcoins thins out. But the repeating chart structure adds weight to the view that DOGE is closer to the beginning, not the end, of its bullish phase. Dogecoin Market Outlook At press time, Dogecoin continues to trade at $0.281 as earlier stated, following gains of 6.75% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume is up by 14.63% and valued at 4.76 billion. On higher timeframes, the price trend remains firmly positive as DOGE is up 28.28% on the weekly chart and 12.67% over the past month, underscoring sustained momentum beyond the short-term rally. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are also presenting a bullish DOGE case, albeit from a conservative angle, projecting a $0.31 price valuation in the next month.

How much gold can I realistically buy at one time? Buying gold in bulk is not as simple as writing a check and walking away with bars. Dealers, banks, and regulators impose limits. Storage and resale add another layer of complexity. Retirees in particular need to balance security, liquidity, and long-term planning. This guide explains the practical ceiling on how much gold you can buy at one time, what factors matter most, and how to avoid costly mistakes. Is There a Legal Limit? In the United States, there is no federal cap on how much physical gold you can own. Private ownership has been fully legal since 1975. What constrains purchases today are dealer policies, banking logistics, and compliance rules—not federal ownership caps. Dealer Restrictions in Practice Limits vary by dealer and by payment method. Online purchases using credit cards or PayPal typically cap at around $250,000. Bank wires allow much higher amounts—up to $1 million per order with major dealers like JM Bullion. APMEX states no maximum for domestic orders, though trades above $500,000 usually require phone verification. For institutional or ultra-high-net-worth buyers, “block trades” can exceed millions, but they are arranged directly with a trading desk. The U.S. Mint’s Role The U.S. Mint does not sell bullion coins directly to the public. It distributes bullion coins (such as American Eagles) through a network of Authorized Purchasers. The Mint does sell numismatic and proof coins directly to consumers, but large bullion buyers must use a distributor. Bank and Transfer Logistics For amounts above a few thousand dollars, wire transfers are the norm. Banks set daily limits depending on account type; some cap online wires at $50,000–$100,000, while others allow much more. Higher limits can usually be arranged in advance, and private-bank platforms may have no fixed daily cap. For very large orders, branch-initiated wires are common. Reporting Requirements Two key reporting rules apply: Form 8300: If a dealer receives more than $10,000 in cash, the dealer must file IRS Form 8300. Wire transfers are not considered cash for this rule. CTR (Currency Transaction Report): Banks must file a CTR for cash deposits or withdrawals above $10,000 in a single business day. This is the bank’s obligation, not the customer’s. These rules are compliance steps, not penalties. Retirees buying through wires generally avoid cash-reporting triggers, though AML verification is standard at reputable dealers. Physical Considerations: Coins vs. Bars A 1-kilogram gold bar weighs about 2.2 pounds. A 400-ounce Good Delivery bar, the standard for central banks, weighs about 27 pounds. Bars are efficient for storing large value in compact form, with lower premiums per ounce. Coins, however, carry slightly higher premiums but offer easier resale in small increments. A $200,000 order might be four kilo bars or 100 one-ounce coins—the choice affects flexibility later. Storage and Security Trade-Offs Storage is as important as the purchase itself: Home safes: Suitable for small holdings but carry theft risk as value increases. Safe deposit boxes: Provide some security but are not FDIC-insured and have limited access. Private vaulting: Professional depositories offer security, insurance, and auditing. Fees typically run 0.5%–1% annually of the gold’s value (examples: Citadel at 0.55%, IDS 0.5–1.25%). Liquidity: Selling is Harder than Buying Large purchases are straightforward, but selling them quickly in one piece can be challenging. National dealers will repurchase large lots, but high-value transactions may involve verification, partial settlement, or adjusted pricing. Smaller coins and bars usually command more competitive bids because they can be resold easily. Case Study: A $100,000 Buy At $2,500 per ounce, $100,000 equals about 40 ounces. Two 1-kilo bars would be efficient but difficult to split later. Forty one-ounce American Eagles would carry higher premiums but give the owner flexibility to sell in smaller increments. For retirees, the coin option usually balances efficiency with liquidity. Scaling Up: $500,000 to $5 Million Larger orders require more planning. Here’s how the scale looks in practice: Purchase Size Approx. Gold Ounces (at $2,500/oz) Typical Form Practical Considerations $500,000 200 oz Kilo bars or mix of bars/coins Requires professional vaulting $1,000,000 400 oz Kilo bars plus coins Balance flexibility with efficiency $5,000,000 2,000 oz Good Delivery bars or institutional channels Armored transport, bank custody, or ETFs Each higher level adds complexity: armored transport, multiple verifications, and higher insurance premiums. For most private buyers, keeping orders under $1 million at a time is the most manageable option. Premiums by Product Premiums—dealer markups above spot—shift with demand and supply. Typical ranges are: Gold Product Typical Premium Range (above spot) Liquidity 1 oz Coins (e.g., American Eagle) 3% – 5% (sometimes higher in tight markets) High – easy to sell individually 1 kg Bars 1% – 2% Moderate – best for larger investors 400 oz Good Delivery Bars 0.5% – 1% Low – harder to sell in parts Larger bars minimize premiums but reduce flexibility. Coins cost more upfront but can be sold piecemeal. Premiums change daily, so always check live dealer quotes before buying. Tax Treatment Physical gold held as an investment is classified as a collectible. Long-term capital gains are taxed at up to 28% federally. Short-term gains are taxed as ordinary income. Heirs generally receive a step-up in basis, which resets cost basis to market value at the time of inheritance, reducing capital gains exposure later. International Buying Buying gold abroad in Switzerland, Singapore, or Dubai can provide access to large bars, but it raises legal and logistical issues. U.S. Customs and Border Protection requires declaration when bringing gold into the country. Gold coins are treated as currency for declaration purposes, while bullion is treated as merchandise. Monetary gold generally enters duty-free, but proper declaration is essential. Estate Planning Considerations Large gold holdings should be integrated into estate plans. Without records, heirs may face legal and tax complications. Retirees often use trusts or family limited partnerships to manage holdings, or hold gold inside self-directed IRAs with approved custodians. The key is ensuring heirs have clear documentation and lawful access. Risks of Oversized Purchases Price volatility: A 5% swing on a $1 million position is $50,000 overnight. Security risk: Transporting or storing large amounts draws attention. Liquidity: Large bars may sell at discounts compared with coins. Concentration: Too much wealth in gold reduces diversification. Counterpoints and Alternatives Buying in bulk does reduce per-ounce costs. But this strategy assumes you will never need to sell in smaller portions. Others prefer gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for liquidity and ease of trading, though they sacrifice direct ownership. The right choice depends on whether you prioritize tangible control or financial efficiency. Practical Buying Strategies Confirm dealer limits for your intended purchase size. Arrange wire transfer capacity with your bank ahead of time. Favor a mix of coins and bars to balance efficiency and liquidity. Settle storage arrangements before completing a purchase. Maintain meticulous purchase records for tax and estate purposes. Key Takeaways There is no legal limit on gold ownership in the U.S.—constraints come from dealers and banks. Dealer order caps range from $250k online to $1M by wire; larger trades require direct arrangements. Form 8300 applies only to cash payments over $10,000; wires are excluded. Storage costs run about 0.5%–1% annually; safe deposit boxes are not FDIC insured. Coins provide flexibility despite higher premiums; bars offer efficiency but less liquidity. Profits are taxed as collectibles (up to 28% federal), with a step-up in basis for heirs. Action Checklist Decide your target purchase amount and split into practical lots. Check your dealer’s maximums and confirm with a trading desk if above $500k. Arrange wire transfer approvals with your bank before placing large orders. Settle on secure storage—vault, depository, or safe deposit box—with insurance. Keep thorough records for taxes and estate planning. The post How much gold can I realistically buy at one time? first appeared on American Bullion.

Crypto analyst Borovik has unveiled his 2026 bullish predictions for the XRP price, Dogecoin, and Solana. This comes as these three altcoins stand out in the ongoing crypto market rally, recording notable gains. Analyst Reveals 2026 Prediction For XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana In an X post, Borovik predicted that the XRP price will rally to $23, Dogecoin to $2, and Solana to $1,800 in 2026. He also made predictions for other major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and TRX. The analyst expects BTC to rally to $896,503, ETH to $35,000, BNB to $7,000, and TRX to $2.7. However, the analyst didn’t provide any basis for why the XRP price, Dogecoin, Solana, and these other coins could rally to these ambitious targets. Notably, these coins are currently the top 9 largest cryptos by market cap, excluding stablecoins USDT and USDC. These coins are also currently recording notable gains amid the recent crypto market rally. The XRP price has reclaimed the psychological $3 level and now looks set to retest higher resistance levels and possibly flip them into support. Dogecoin has also reached its most recent local high of $0.28 and is now looking to hit the $0.30 level. Solana surpassed $240 yesterday, reaching this level for the first time since January. Fundamentals have played a role in driving this rally for the XRP price, Dogecoin, and Solana. REX-Osprey is launching the first XRP and DOGE ETFs next week, under the 40 Act. These funds will still provide spot exposure to both altcoins, although they differ from the conventional spot crypto ETFs. REX-Osprey’s funds will help inject new capital into the XRP and DOGE ecosystem, which could serve as a catalyst for higher prices. Meanwhile, Solana just saw the launch of a $1.65 billion SOL treasury firm, Forward Industries. The firm completed the private placement earlier this week and immediately began buying SOL through Galaxy Digital, which was one of the investors in the private placement. This has added significant buying pressure on the crypto. More Gains Ahead For These Altcoins The XRP price, Dogecoin, and Solana are still expected to record major gains ahead amid this crypto market rally. Crypto analyst CasiTrades suggested that the consolidation period is over for XRP and that it is set to rally to a new all-time high (ATH). Her accompanying chart showed that the altcoin could rally above $4.60. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated that Dogecoin is still in the buy zone and that the bullish breakout will melt faces. His accompanying chart showed that DOGE could rally to as high as $4 if it touches the middle channel of an ascending channel. In a separate analysis, the analyst noted that $1,300 is the primary target for SOL after breaking out of a cup and handle pattern.

The week ahead features five G10 central bank meetings. Two will most likely cut rates, the US and Canada, and two will stand pat, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Norges Bank, Norway's central bank also meets. It is a close call but we lean slightly in favor of it cutting 25 bp, which would bring the deposit rate to 4%. The Federal Reserve is the most interesting. First, the Senate is expected to confirm President Trump's nomination, Stephen Miran as appointment as Fed governor Monday afternoon, less than 24 hours before the beginning of the FOMC meeting. While a 25 bp cut is the most likely scenario, the derivatives markets are discounting almost a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut. It is possible that Miran, and Governor Waller, who intimated that further deterioration of the labor market, could incline him to favor a 50 bp cut, may dissent. The risk is that such dissents will add to the consternation in some quarters of how fragile the Fed's independence (from partisan politics). Several foreign central bankers at last month's Jackson Hole confab expressed concern. Second, the Trump administration has asked for the appeal court to stay the earlier order that allow Governor Cook to retain her post while she sought legal recourse to her dismissal. A decision is possible before the US markets open on Monday. In some ways these US developments fan what seems to be two related and crowded trades: short dollars and long gold. It is difficult to find a contrarian view. Our concern is tactical rather than strategic. The Dollar Index bottomed on July 1, the same day that the euro and sterling recorded their multi-year highs. And while we highlight the correlation of changes in US rates and the dollar-yen exchange rate, the dollar bottom against the yen on April 22. Last week, the US 10-year yield traded slightly below 4.0% on an intraday basis for the first time since early April. The US two-year yield recorded its five-month low on September 5, near 3.46%. US Drivers: The US dollar appears most sensitive to interest rate expectations. The rolling 30-day inverse correlation between changes in the Dollar Index and December 2025 Fed funds futures is near 0.65. It has rarely been more over the past year. Recall that for the first time in three years, in late March and early April, as US tariff threats dominated, the 30-day correlation turned positive. Data: The reports August retail sales, import/export prices, and industrial output on Tuesday ahead of the main event of the week, the FOMC meeting. Despite elevated price pressures, the derivatives market is confident that the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed funds target this week and resume its easing cycle. The Senate is due to vote late Monday on Miran's nomination. There is some risk he dissents in favor of a 50 bp cut. The Summary of Economic Projections will be updated. Recall that in June, seven Fed officials did not expect to cut rates even once this year. Recognizing even one cut this year will push next year's median projected rate lower. The current average effective rate (weighted average transactions in the Fed funds market) is about 4.33%. The Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 2.90% rate at the end of next year. The median projection in June was 3.625%. With the use of the Fed's reverse repo facility falling and the level of bank reserves trending lower, the Federal Reserve may begin discussing quantitative tightening, the unwinding of its balance sheet through not replacing all the maturing Treasury and Agency securities. The Fed's desire to reach the "minimum ample level" leaves room for discretion. Governor Waller estimated that such a level is around $2.7 trillion. At the current pace of unwinding, it is still more than six months away. However, this was one estimate about something that is difficult to know a priori but that means that the Fed will prefer to err on the side of caution and that will be sensitive to other signs of strain that could develop. Moreover, the use of the reverse repo facility suggest that the Fed may be closer to the “minimum ample level” than supposed. The mid-month corporate tax date and the quarter-/fiscal year-end at the end of the month may provide a pre-taste of the financial strains. Still, the measure of bond market volatility (MOVE) is near a three-year low. Prices: The Dollar Index bottomed on July 1, near 96.35 and reached 100.25 a month later. It has been trading in that broad range. On September 9, it recorded its lowest level since late July around 97.25. Market sentiment remains nearly wholly negative. That said, a move above the band of resistance (~98.30-98.75) may spur a short-squeeze. EMU Drivers: The 30-day rolling correlation of changes in the euro and Germany's two-year yield is inverse at around -0.35. It was positively correlated between mid-November 2024 through mid-May 2025. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the euro and the US two-year yield is inverse at around -0.77. It positively correlated from early March through early April this year. The changes in the euro are a little less correlated with changes in the US two-year premium over Germany near -0.60 over the past 30 sessions. The last time the two were positively correlation was briefly in 2022. After the markets closed before the weekend, Fitch cut France's rating to A+ from AA-. It was not much of a surprise. On the other hand, Fitch raised Portugal's rating to A from A-.The rating agency gave both stable outlooks. Separately, citing the improvement in the Spain's external balance and private sector deleveraging, S&P raised Spain's rating to A+ from A, with a stable outlook. France's 10-year yield settled before the rating announcements about 22 bp on top of Spain, 38 bp above Portugal's, and less than two basis points below Italy. Data: The eurozone aggregate July trade and current account figures tend to elicit much of a market reaction. The national figures, especially Germany's, are already known. There is little new substantive information. The same can be said for the July industrial production figures. Germany's industrial output rose 1.3% and Italy's rose by 0.4%, while France’s tumbled 1.1%, and Spain slipped by 0.5%. The market anticipates that the Q3 economic pulse will remain faint around 0.1% the same as Q2. Prices: For a little over a month, the euro has been mostly confined to a $1.16-$1.18 range. Despite intraday violations of the lower end, it has not settled outside of the range since August 5. In that range, the five-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average (since August 8). One-month implied volatility is near 6.5%, the lowest since last November. Three-month implied volatility is slightly below 7%. The year's low was set in late March, a little below 6.9%. PRC Drivers: Beijing closely manages the exchange rate. Its declaratory policy is one of broad stability against the dollar. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the Dollar Index and the offshore yuan is near 0.37. It is inversely correlated euro (-0.31) and positively correlated with the dollar against the yen (~0.47). Data: It is an important week for Chinese data. August fixed asset investment is expected to have slowed on year-to-date, year-over-year basis, but we note the decline began in April and the July pace (1.6%) was already the weakest since the pandemic. August real sector data and house prices are also due the same day (September 15). Retail sales and industrial production are expected to have improved marginally sequentially on a year-over-year basis. Home prices likely continued to slowly bleed lower, and investment has not returned to the property market. Prices: The dollar fell to new lows for the year against the yuan last week (~CNH7.1130). Yet ahead of the weekend, it posted its highest settlement of the week near CNH7.1250. Still, only a move above CNH7.15 would be technically significant. The strong equity market performance over the last few months and speculation that the PBOC may renew bond buying in Q4 may encourage global asset managers to return. The PBOC lowered the dollar's fix in four of last week's five sessions but has held it above CNY7.10. A break of this threshold may fan the speculation that is gradually moving toward CNY7.00. JAPAN Drivers: The yen's exchange rate remains sensitive to changes in US rates. Recently (past 30 sessions), the correlation with changes in the US two-year yield have surpassed the correlation with changes in the 10-year yield (0.83 vs 0.77, respectively). While this is more robust than the correlation with Japanese rates, the changes in the differentials are also notable. The 30-day rolling correlation of changes in the exchange rate and the US-Japanese two-year spread is around 0.63, after setting a two-year high earlier this month near 0.85. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes in the exchange rate and the US Japanese 10-year differential is slightly above 0.65. Its two-year high was also set earlier this month, near 0.85. Data: The industrial sector is more volatile than the tertiary sector, but the tertiary sector activity has risen by an average of 0.4% in H1 25, while industrial output has risen by an average 0.3%. Japan reports the July tertiary sector activity on September 16 followed by the August trade figures the following day. There is a seasonal pattern of deterioration from July (15 in the past 20 years). The August CPI will be reported on September 19 but the Tokyo CPI (reported August 29) already informed expectations for that the headline pace likely slowed for the fourth consecutive month and likely slipped below 3% for the first time since last November. The same holds true for the core rate, which excludes fresh food. It will likely slow to less than 3% but it will be the third consecutive decline. The BOJ meeting ends a few hours later. There is practically no chance that the BOJ cuts rate, but the market will be sensitive to Governor Ueda's verbal signals. Prices: Last week's range was set on Monday and Tuesday: ~JPY146.30-JPY148.60. It looks poised to test the upper end of that range. That could dovetail with US rates recovering from their recent extremes, which saw the two- and 10-year yields fall to five-month lows. The implied yen volatility is low, a little above the lows for the year seen in mid-August. UK Drivers: Sterling is sensitive to the overall dollar direction. The rolling 30-day inverse correlation of changes in the exchange rate and changes in the Dollar Index is near -0.80. It has not been greater than -0.90 this year, though in 2023 and 2024 neared -0.95 at the extreme. The 30-day correlation with the euro itself is slightly more (~0.84). The inverse correlation with changes in the US two-year yield is near -0.57, and near -0.32 with the two-year Gilt. The inverse correlation of the changes in the exchange rate and the two-year interest rate differential is around -0.52. Although the long-end of the UK curve is the subject of must consternation, the inverse correlation of the changes in exchange rate and the 30-year Gilt yield is less than with the two-year Gilt (~-0.38). Data: It is a big week for the UK. Not only will the three data points that the market is the most sensitive to be reported (jobs, inflation, and retail sales) but the Bank of England meets as well. The labor market is slowing. A BOE survey released earlier this month showed British companies are laying off employees at the fast pace in four years. Headline inflation may tick down a little given the 0.3% rise in August 2025 but will remain elevated. Unlike the Fed's dual mandate, the BOE is changed with price stability, and officials have made it clear they are in no hurry to cut rates again. The swaps market does not have the next cut fully discounted until April 2026. August retail sales will be reported after the BOE meeting. Retail sales, reported on a volume not price basis, fell by an average of 0.1% a month in Q2 after rising by an average of 0.6% a month in Q1. Prices: Sterling approached $1.36 last week. It held, as it did in late July and mid-August. Sterling has not traded above there since mid-July. Initial support may be around $1.35. The 20-day moving average will begin the new week slightly lower and it roughly corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of this month's rally. The (50%) retracement is near $1.3460. CANADA Drivers: There are two regularities that are notable. First, the Canadian dollar typically does better on the crosses in a firm US dollar environment and typically under-performs in a softer US dollar environment. Second, the Canadian dollar is sensitive to the broad movement of the greenback. The rolling 30-day correlation is slightly below 0.70. The high from late August was near 0.80, the highest in a little more than a year. Data: There are two highlights in the coming week. On Tuesday, Canada reports August CPI. In the three months through July, Canada's CPI rose at an annualized rate of 4.0%, down from 5.2% in the previous three months. The year-over-year rate has been hovered in the 1.7%-1.9% for the past four months. with a 1.7% print in July. The base effect warns of some upside pressure as the 0.2% decline in August 2024 and the 0.4% last September drop out of the 12-month comparison. And the underlying core rates have been holding a little above 3%. This poses a challenge for the Bank of Canada, given the sharper than expected economic contraction in Q2 and the disappointing August employment report. The central bank meets on Wednesday, with the outcome a several hours before the FOMC decision is announced. The swaps market has about an 87% chance of a cut discounted. Prices: The US dollar rose from about CAD1.3725 on August 29 to almost CAD1.39 last week, ahead of the US CPI. On the pullback, it met the (38.2%) retracement of the rally (~CAD1.3825) and the 20-day moving average (~CAD1.3820). Below there, initial support may be encountered around CAD1.3780. The August high was set near CAD1.3925 and a move above there targets the CAD1.40 area. AUSTRALIA Drivers: The Australian dollar's rolling 30-day inverse correlation with the Dollar Index in early September (~-0.85) has not been more extreme since the first half of 2024. It is now near -0.75, and so is the correlation with the US dollar's exchange rate against the Canadian dollar. The rolling 30-day correlation with gold has fallen below 0.40 for the first time since late July. The Aussie has also become more sensitive to changes in the US two-year yield. The rolling 30-day inverse correlation is near -0.57. The most extreme reading in a little more than a year was reached earlier last week near -0.62. The correlation with the two-year differential is near 0.30. This year's peak was in January, closer to 0.65. The rolling 30-day correlation with Australia's two-year yield is a little less than 0.10. Data: Australian reports August employment figures on September 18. Barring a dramatic deterioration, the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to cut rate when it meets at the end of the month. Through July, Australia created an average of 16.2k jobs this year, slightly less than half of Jan-July 2024 pace. It grew an average of 17.6k full-time positions a month this year (it lost part-time positions) after an average of 30.4k in the Jan-July 2024 period. The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in July, net-net unchanged from July 2024. The participation rate has been at 67.0% for the three months through July. It was at 61.1% in July 2024. Prices: The Australian dollar reached a new high for the year ahead of the weekend near $0.6670 before pulling back, stopping slightly shy of the 200-week moving average (~$0.6680). Since the day before Fed Chair Powell spoke at Jackson Hole (August 22), it is the strongest of the G10 currencies with around a 3.4% gain. The momentum indicators are stretched. Initial support is seen in the $0.6590-$0.6600 area. MEXICO Drivers: The Mexican peso has become more sensitive to the US dollar's broad movement. The rolling 30-day correlation of the changes in the dollar against the peso and the Dollar Index peaked a little above 0.75 in late August, which is the highest in around three years. It is still high, near 0.68. The correlation with changes in the US two-year yield is less than 0.20, and the inverse correlation with the S&P 500 is around -0.30. Data: It is a light week for the Mexican economic calendar. Brazil's central bank will announce the results of its policy meeting a few hours after the Federal Reserve on September 17. Brazil's tightening cycle began last September with the Selic rate at 10.50%. It reached 15.0% in June and the central bank seems content, though inflation (IPCA) has been holding above 5% year-over-year since February. Prices: The US dollar fell to a new low for the year against the Mexican peso last week, slightly to almost MXN18.4375 ahead of the weekend. Most of the damage was down after the US CPI. The next technical target may be near MXN18.40, but there is likely more in the pipeline. Looking at Bloomberg surveys, the median forecasts have not embraced the strength of the peso this year. It has risen more than 12.5% against the dollar in the spot market and nearly 20% including the carry for dollar-based investors. One- and three-month implied vol are at new lows for the year (~8% and 9% respectively). The dollar also recorded a new low for the year against the Brazil real in the second half of last week. It fell slightly below BRL5.3450 ahead of the weekend. The next interesting chart area may be in the BRL5.29-BRL5.30 area. The Brazilian real has appreciated by about 14.75% this year, and with the carry, has returned almost 26% to dollar-based investors. Yet, the implied volatility is higher than the peso and the liquidity in BRL is less than MXN. Disclaimer

Recent developments in the derivatives market now threaten the long-term bullish potential of the altcoin market based on historical data. Despite recent gains and market indicators that signal the altseason may soon begin, investors could be looking at a rather short-lived euphoria. Over the last day, the crypto market has witnessed a strong bullish momentum with the total market cap reclaiming the $4 trillion mark. Amidst these high levels of positivity, Bitcoin has gained 1.50%. However, other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (5.41%), XRP (2.99%), and Solana (5.62%) have produced larger gains, creating a miniature semblance of an altseason. Altcoins Open Interest Surge Points To Incoming Market Peak – Analyst Notably, these altcoins’ outperformances have drawn significant interest from derivative traders, leading to a corresponding rise in open interest — the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, e.g, futures or options, that have not yet been settled, i.e., closed, exercised, or expired. In particular, renowned crypto analyst Ted Pillows states that general altcoin open interest (excluding Ethereum) is about to surpass Bitcoin open interest for the first time in nine months. While this development suggests an emerging altseason as capital and traders’ attention shift to the altcoin market, Pillows has highlighted a potential cause for concern. The crypto market expert shares that historical data from Coinalyze shows that the last two times altcoin open interest surged above that of Bitcoin were in March 2024 and December 2024. After each event, many altcoins popularly formed a local market peak in the following two weeks. Therefore, while the present market fundamentals indicate traders are on the brink of an altseason, Pillows’ revelation indicates it would be a brief parabolic market. However, the peculiarity of the present market cycle, which is largely driven by institutional demand, suggests that any correction could be shallower than in past cycles, with capital rotating more sustainably between Bitcoin and major altcoins. Notably, several altcoin spot ETFs are also expected to be approved for trading in October, which could provide a structural inflow of liquidity, extend the rally beyond a short-lived spike. Biggest Altseason Ever? In other news, Dutch crypto analyst Michaël Van De Poppe has admonished investors to prepare for the biggest altcoin run ever. Interestingly, Van de Poppe references an ongoing consolidation in the Gold market, which is expected to drive down interest rates. In typical fashion, lower interest rates would allow investors to divert capital to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, which Van De Poppe explains would contribute to fuelling a mega altcoin rally. At press time, the total altcoin market is valued at $1.71 trillion, representing around 42.25% of the total crypto market cap.

Solana (SOL) could be near the long-awaited price discovery phase after climbing to a seven-month high. However, an analyst suggested investors remain cautious, as the market rally is “closer to the end than the beginning.” Solana Eyes Last Major Resistance On Friday, Solana reached a seven-month high of $241.84 after breaking out of its consolidation range earlier in the week. The cryptocurrency had been trading within the $120-$220 price range since the start of February, failing to reclaim the range’s high during the recent short-term recoveries. The ongoing rally has sent the cryptocurrency past multiple crucial barriers, “getting close to the final resistance,” analyst Crypto Jelle stated. He highlighted that SOL has been “quietly pushing higher, without anyone paying attention,” climbing 20% since Sunday. Now that the altcoin is attempting to reclaim the $240 area as support, the analyst pointed out that Solana has “one last hurdle to overcome” before price discovery. According to the post, if SOL reclaims the $250 level, “the sky is the limit,” as this area has been a crucial macro resistance level over the past two years. To the analyst, turning this level into support could set the base for a rally to $600. Similarly, analyst Ali Martinez suggested that SOL’s main target sits at around the $1,314.41 level after the altcoin broke out of a massive three-year cup and handle pattern. Nonetheless, Altcoin Sherpa issued a warning to investors on X, stating that “Now is NOT the time to ape in gigantic.” He asserted that despite thinking that Solana, Ethereum (ETH), and BNB “generally go higher from here, (…) the bulk of the move is done for these.” The analyst explained that he will remain bullish “until shown otherwise,” and expects a great performance in the coming months, but noted that the bull run is “closer to the end than the beginning.” “We are lucky that the marginal buyers are Tradfi with these DATs but with Saylor not buying as much, hard to tell where the next set of flows come from,” he stated. ‘SOL Season’ Momentum Grows Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan recently forecasted a bullish Q4 rally for Solana, affirming that the cryptocurrency has “all the ingredients (…) for an epic end-of-year run.” He suggested that it could start a “Solana Season” fueled by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and strong corporate treasury purchases. Notably, multiple spot Solana ETFs are awaiting the approval of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after the regulatory agency delayed the decision deadline last month. As a result, issuers and investors are expecting a positive outcome around the first half of October. Additionally, the recently launched Solana Treasury company, Forward Industries Inc., announced it had successfully closed its private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing on September 11, securing gross proceeds of approximately $1.65 billion for the Company. As reported by NewsBTC, Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital announced their plan to establish the SOL treasury company to purchase the cryptocurrency, stake it, and generate excess returns. “Forward Industries intends to use the net proceeds from the offering primarily to purchase SOL, the native digital asset of the Solana blockchain,” the company reaffirmed in its Thursday statement. As of this writing, SOL is trading at $239.86, a 6.1% increase in the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended, surging to a three-week high of $115,500, fueled by softer U.S. inflation data and steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The rally coincided with growing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may deliver a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, further boosting risk appetite. According to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum (ETH) also gained ground, trading above $4,550, while altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded sharp increases. Solana climbed over 7% to $239, while Dogecoin rose 5% to $0.26, signaling broad-based strength across the crypto market. Market analysts credited the upward move to different macroeconomic stability and institutional inflows. Bitcoin ETFs registered more than $928 million in inflows, reinforcing demand from both retail and professional investors. Resistance Near $116K Raises Concerns Despite the bullish wave, Bitcoin faced resistance above $116,000, where sellers limited further gains. Analysts noted that rejection at this level emphasizes ongoing market caution. It is believed that the rally indicates renewed sentiment, but the rejection above $116,000 shows that sellers continue to be active. Derivatives data echoed this caution. The weekly options expiry revealed a put/call ratio of 1.3, signaling that bearish bets slightly outweigh bullish positions. This trend suggests traders expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound, with probable moves limited between $111,000 and $116,000. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index showed that most market indicators, including the MVRV-Z score and stablecoin liquidity, have turned bearish. Analysts warn that a sudden shift in sentiment could trigger profit-taking and liquidations. What’s Next for Bitcoin (BTC)? If Bitcoin achieves a sustained breakout above $116,000, analysts believe the next target could be $118,000, with strong support around $113,700. However, volatility remains a risk as traders wait for the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. Adding to the positive outlook, Sean Ono Lennon, son of music legend John Lennon, recently praised Bitcoin as a hedge against “runaway money printing,” emphasizing its appeal as a scarce, decentralized asset during times of economic uncertainty. For now, Bitcoin’s uptrend remains steady, but looming bearish signals and resistance levels could challenge the strength of the rally in the coming days, possibly leading to another dip below $110,000. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview

Happy Saturday! Big moves in crypto today as ETH USD has shot past $4,700, XRP is holding firm right around $3.15, and SOL is passing $240 mark again. The US stock market just hit new highs, and BTC ▲0.78% is hanging steady around $115,000. Ethereum lit up this week. ETH ▲4.69% pushed up about 3.5% and above $4,750 after drifting just under $4,300 for a while. Network activity picked up, ETF money started flowing in, and suddenly, momentum felt real. If this keeps up, ETH might challenge the 4,800 USD level soon or even blast above the current all-time high. Demand from users on Binance platforms has been steadily rising, pushing BNB up in a way that crypto didn’t expect, especially with the rise of Solana. With each announcement, BNB seems to gain more weight in the market. However, is BNB the crypto to buy? Or the Binance cabal-controlled token is bound to fall? bnbPriceMarket CapBNB$138.19B24h7d1y DISCOVER: Latest Crypto News Today, September 13, 2025 Read the original story here. The post Latest Crypto News Today, September 13: ETH Blasts $4,700, XRP Strong at $3.15, and SOL Close to All Time High at $240 as US Stock Market Hitting ATH and BTC USD Price Stabilizes at $115,000 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Solana may be moving toward a sky-high main target based on a cup-and-handle breakout. Solana Is Breaking Out Of A Cup And Handle In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a pattern that the 1-week price of SOL has appeared to have been following during the last few years. The pattern in question is a “cup and handle” from technical analysis (TA). It’s made up of two parts: a U-shaped trendline forming the “cup” and a downward parallel channel representing the “handle.” As the asset moves through the pattern, it first goes through a decline to a low, then observes a rebound back to about the same height as before the drawdown. Finally, it once again witnesses a bearish trajectory, this time one consistent with a descending channel. When the price is inside the channel, the usual rules of the formation apply: the upper line acts as a resistance barrier, while the lower one provides support. A break out of the levels can imply a continuation of trend in that direction. A cup and handle is generally assumed to be a bullish continuation pattern, meaning that breakouts can be considered more probable to occur in the up direction. The same seems to have held true for Solana as well, as its 1-week price has just seen a surge beyond the resistance line of its multi-year cup and handle pattern. As displayed in the above graph, the weekly Solana price went down and up along a cup between 2021 and 2024, but this year, it entered into the handle or downward consolidation phase. After some period of stay inside the zone, the coin finally found a break away from it in July. This escape from the descending channel occurred with an upward surge, a potential sign that sustained bullish momentum may be coming for SOL, if the pattern is anything to go by. As for what could be a potential target for the cryptocurrency’s price, the analyst has suggested a rather bold one: $1,314.41. The target corresponds to a line from Fibonacci Extension levels. Fibonacci Extension levels are drawn on an asset’s price chart starting from a bottom point. Martinez has taken SOL’s cup low as the zero level. Each successive level corresponds to some percentage extension from this bottom, equal to a ratio from the popular Fibonacci series. The 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level lies at $1,314.41 for Solana right now. It now remains to be seen whether the coin will eventually surge to this mark, or if the breakout will fizzle out. SOL Price Solana has performed better than most top coins over the past week as its price has surged by more than 17%, reaching the $238 mark.

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from around $108,000 on September 1 to above $115,000 at the time of writing – recording a gain of roughly 4% over the past two weeks. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a fresh rally that could propel it to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin Rises Above Mid-Term Holders’ Realized Price According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $107,000 to just above $114,000 has lifted the digital asset over the Realized Price of mid-term (3-6 months) holders. For the uninitiated, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by wallets that last moved their coins within the past 3–6 months. It serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects sentiment and potential sell pressure from this cohort. Per analysis by ShayanMarkets, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price currently stands at around $114,000. Now that BTC has surged above this level, the likelihood of an immediate sell-off has reduced significantly. The analyst added: A firm breakout and hold above this level would confirm renewed confidence from mid-term holders, potentially serving as the launchpad for another bullish leg that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above $114K risks shifting sentiment back toward caution and opens the path to deeper corrective moves. A Bump On The Road For BTC Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Gaah brought attention to short-term holders’ (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The contributor noted that after four months of consistently operating above the break-even line, the indicator is now showing that STH are selling their holdings at a loss. The STH selling their BTC at a loss indicates a “momentary loss of confidence” on the part of speculators, who are typically more sensitive to changes in price. Although BTC has jumped from $60,000 to as high as $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH has recorded descending peaks. In past cycles, a sharp surge in price was usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle did not see any such dynamic at play, hinting that the rise in price was likely sustained by institutional investors. Gaah added that historically, market tops have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached levels of extreme greed, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains firm, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy pullback. That said, some analysts caution that Bitcoin may already be very close to hitting its peak for this market cycle. Others predict that BTC may slump in September, before it resumes its bullish trajectory in Q4 2025. Still, some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 by Christmas. At press time, BTC trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Chainlink (LINK), one of the crypto market’s leading providers of decentralized oracle solutions, has announced a partnership with the prediction market platform Polymarket. Polymarket Integrates Chainlink On Polygon According to Friday’s announcement, the new integration is now live on the Polygon (POL) mainnet, enabling Polymarket to establish secure and real-time prediction markets centered around asset pricing, including numerous active cryptocurrency trading pairs. This collaboration also explores new methodologies to address more subjective questions. By doing so, Polymarket seeks to reduce its dependence on social voting mechanisms, thereby mitigating resolution risks in its markets. The integration combines Chainlink Data Streams, which deliver low-latency, timestamped, and verifiable oracle reports, with Chainlink Automation, ensuring timely and automated on-chain market settlements. This infrastructure reportedly allows for swift resolution of any asset pricing predictions, such as Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts, based on predetermined parameters. Sergey Nazarov, Co-Founder of Chainlink, commented on the partnership, stating that Polymarket’s decision to integrate Chainlink’s oracle infrastructure is a “pivotal milestone” that transforms the creation and settlement of prediction markets. He emphasized that when outcomes are determined by high-quality data and tamper-proof computation, prediction markets evolve into reliable signals that can be trusted globally. This partnership is viewed as a significant advancement toward a future grounded in cryptographic truth. $100 Billion In DeFi Value Chainlink has established itself as a leading data infrastructure provider, securing nearly $100 billion in total value across various decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and facilitating transactions worth tens of trillions. The protocol’s reliability stems from its decentralized network of independent node operators, which ensures that applications function seamlessly without single points of failure. Polymarket, on the other hand, launched in 2020, has rapidly grown into a source for real-time information. Its recent acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million, highlights its goal to re-entering the US market. Additionally, Polymarket has partnered with X (formerly Twitter) to offer integrated products that provide users with data-driven insights and personalized market recommendations. Looking ahead, market analysts are predicting that Chainlink’s growing adoption could lead to significant milestones in the coming years. One expert speculated that by 2030, Chainlink could surpass XRP in market significance. In a social media post, crypto expert Fishy Catfish outlined various predictions, suggesting that Chainlink will become the dominant platform for building financial workflows on-chain and that the future will be characterized by asset-centric and application-centric ecosystems rather than chain-centric ones. When writing, Chainlink’s native token, LINK, surged by 5%, reaching $24.70. This price increase has caused the cryptocurrency to outperform its peers, such as Bitcoin, which has seen gains of 87% compared to LINK’s 133% year-to-date uptrend. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation. Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends. He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome. With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said. The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift. After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted. He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote. For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.” With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has staged a strong breakout after forming a double bottom near key support, surging past $0.26 and leaving earlier rejection zones behind. With the Bollinger Band width now hitting a historically bullish level, DOGE could be setting the stage for a major surge, targeting a price range between $0.41 and $0.97. Dogecoin Breaks Out After Double Bottom Formation In a recent post on X, BitGuru shared an analysis highlighting that DOGE has made a significant bullish move, breaking out from a classic double bottom chart pattern. This pattern formed near a key support level, signaling a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. By surging past the $0.26 mark, DOGE has confirmed this breakout and is now in a strong position for further gains. This decisive move, which is a critical development, puts previous resistance zones firmly in the rearview mirror. The market now has a clear signal of continued bullish strength. Presently, momentum is being driven by buyers who have stepped in with enough force to push the price higher, indicating a shift in market sentiment. This sustained interest and upward pressure suggest that DOGE could be setting up for a more significant rally as it enters a new phase of its market cycle. Bollinger Band Width Hits Key Orange Level Based on his analysis of Dogecoin’s weekly chart, X crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade has revealed a compelling pattern related to the Bollinger Band Width (BBW). He notes that in the past, when the BBW for DOGE has reached a specific “orange level,” the cryptocurrency has gone on to see significant rallies, with price surges ranging from 100% to as much as 378%. The analyst’s post further highlights a critical development: the BBW has now returned to this very same “orange level.” Such recurrence suggests that a similar period of high volatility and explosive price movement could be imminent for Dogecoin. Based on this historical precedent, the analyst has set new price targets for DOGE. He is now eyeing a potential price range of $0.41 to $0.97 for the token, a forecast directly tied to the historical performance observed when the BBW reaches this key level. This analysis provides a strong bullish case for Dogecoin in the coming weeks and months. Dogecoin is currently experiencing bullish action, with its price trading around $0.2602, a notable increase of 3.78% over the past 24 hours. DOGE’s market capitalization stands at $39.29 billion, while its 24-hour trading volume has reached $4.09 billion, reflecting significant market activity and investor interest.

Tether has just launched a new stablecoin called USAT. It is designed specifically for the US market and comes with a big promise to play by the rules. This isn’t just another token being added to the mix. It’s the first major step from Tether’s new leadership, and the goal is simple: build something the regulators will actually be happy with. A Fresh Start With Bo Hines The man leading this new direction is Bo Hines, who has been brought in as CEO-designate for USAT. He says this isn’t just about keeping regulators off their backs. It’s about giving American businesses something they can actually rely on. According to Hines, USAT is Tether’s way of proving that it can do things by the book and still compete in the digital asset space. Following the Rules This version of Tether’s stablecoin will be built to meet specific US regulations. One law it plans to follow is the GENIUS Act, which lays out how stablecoins should be issued and managed. To keep things clean, Tether is working with Anchorage Digital, a crypto bank that already has a federal charter. The money behind USAT will be handled by Cantor Fitzgerald, which will oversee the reserves and act as custodian. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in September2025 Built for Control The stablecoin itself will run on Hadron, Tether’s own platform for issuing digital assets. There’s a big focus on control and oversight here. Every decision seems to be about fixing the same old criticism Tether has faced for years — that people don’t always know what’s backing their tokens. This time, they want everything to be clear from the start. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.31T24h7d1y Timing Isn’t an Accident USAT is arriving just as stablecoins are under pressure from all sides. Tether’s flagship token, USDT, still leads the market but has lost ground lately. Competitors are popping up everywhere, especially as traditional finance groups look to issue their own stablecoins. Tether knows it can’t coast forever and seems to be shifting gears before it’s too late. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Why Tether Is Betting on USAT Tether wants USAT to be seen as more than just another stablecoin. The way it’s been pitched makes it sound like a digital dollar with real-world utility for US institutions. It’s not trying to win over everyone at once. The focus is clearly on being taken seriously by the right people, and that starts with doing things properly. The Stakes Are High Pulling this off will take more than good intentions. USAT needs to prove that the reserves are solid, the partners are reliable, and that the whole system holds up under pressure. It also needs to show that it can actually attract users. If the setup doesn’t inspire confidence, USAT might not go very far. All Eyes on What Comes Next Now that USAT is out in the open, people are going to watch closely. Tether has made a big deal out of doing things differently, so expectations are high. Whether that turns into long-term trust or just a brief headline depends on how well the company sticks to its promises. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Tether has launched USAT, a new US-focused stablecoin aimed at meeting regulatory standards and restoring trust. Bo Hines has been brought in as CEO-designate for USAT, marking a leadership shift and a push to align with US institutions. USAT is designed to follow the GENIUS Act, with Anchorage Digital providing banking support and Cantor Fitzgerald managing reserves. The stablecoin will be issued on Hadron, Tether’s own platform, with transparency and oversight as central themes. USAT arrives at a critical time for stablecoins, as Tether faces growing competition and pressure to prove credibility in the US market. The post Tether USAT Stablecoin Launches With New CEO and US Focus appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The Winklevoss twins are making headlines again, this time with a bold prediction for Bitcoin’s future. As their crypto exchange Gemini began trading on the Nasdaq, Tyler Winklevoss said he believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million within the next decade. Gemini Makes Its Market Debut Gemini launched publicly under the ticker GEMI. Shares opened around $28 and saw early gains, pushing the company’s valuation to roughly $4.4 billion. The listing marks a major moment for the company, which was founded back in 2014 when crypto was still far from the mainstream. Bitcoin Price Today Adds Fuel to Their Case Bitcoin is currently trading above $116,000. That number gives their claim some context. Ten years ago, Bitcoin was worth a few hundred dollars. The twins were among the earliest to see its long-term potential. Today’s price is a reminder that what once sounded far-fetched can sometimes become reality. Why They Still Think Bitcoin Has Room to Grow The twins believe Bitcoin can go even further because of its potential to replace gold as a long-term store of value. Tyler explained that Bitcoin does not need to be used for everyday payments to have value. It just needs to be trusted as a way to hold wealth over time. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Tenfold Growth Still in Play From their point of view, even at current prices, Bitcoin is still early in its life cycle. They think we are in the early stages of something much bigger. If adoption grows and people begin to treat Bitcoin as a serious asset, they say the price could rise ten times from here. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.31T24h7d1y Not Everyone Agrees Their prediction is definitely on the high side. Some market analysts see slower growth, pointing to regulation and market volatility as reasons to be cautious. Still, the Winklevoss twins have a history of placing long bets, and this is another one. Store of Value, Not Daily Use Cameron Winklevoss made it clear that they do not see Bitcoin becoming the new dollar. Instead, they compare it to gold. It is not something you spend at the store. It is something you hold onto when you want protection against inflation or currency risk. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 What the Gemini Listing Means Going public gives Gemini a bigger platform and more transparency. Investors will be watching closely as the company grows and navigates a highly regulated space. The twins will also be in the spotlight as their price prediction follows them into the public market. A Long-Term View Whether or not Bitcoin reaches $1 million, the twins are placing their bet on time. They believe history is on their side. For now, their prediction adds another layer to the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s place in the world of finance. The future, as always in crypto, remains wide open. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The Winklevoss twins predict Bitcoin could hit $1 million within a decade, as their exchange Gemini goes public on Nasdaq. Gemini began trading under the ticker GEMI, opening around $28 and reaching a valuation near $4.4 billion. They believe Bitcoin will replace gold as a long-term store of value, not as a payment method for daily use. Even with Bitcoin above $116,000, they argue it’s still early and could grow tenfold as adoption expands. Gemini’s public listing puts more attention on the twins’ Bitcoin prediction and the future of crypto in public markets. The post Winklevoss Twins Predict $1 Million Bitcoin as Gemini Goes Public appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Dogecoin climbed after reports said the first US Dogecoin ETF won approval, even though its trading debut was pushed back. Traders piled in anyway, sending volume higher and sparking talk across exchanges and social channels. The memecoin’s bounce came amid mixed signals about timing. ETF Approval And Pushback Based on reports, the REX-Osprey Dogecoin ETF, ticker DOJE, received regulatory approval under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The fund had been expected to begin trading around September 18, 2025, but issuers later announced a delay to a new date. According to filings and press briefings, sponsors said they would set a revised listing date after finishing required steps. That move changed the calendar for investors who had been planning trades around the earlier target. Price Snapshot And Market Size According to figures from Coingecko, Dogecoin traded at $0.26 per coin after the news broke. Reported 24-hour volume topped $4 billion, and market capitalization sat around $39–40 billion. DOGE was up 5% and 21% in the 24-hour and seven-day timeframes. Technical watchers pointed to a pennant breakout pattern. Some analysts mentioned targets in the $0.28–$0.30 range if momentum holds. Traders closed some short positions and added long exposure during the session. Market Reaction And Flows Reports have disclosed that some large holders increased accumulation while retail traders chased momentum on social platforms. Options desks showed a rise in activity, and order books tightened on several major exchanges. At the same time, flows into crypto funds were being watched closely by market makers, who said early demand could determine whether the price move sticks. Volume spikes were sharp but brief in parts of the trading day. Community Response And Criticism Supporters welcomed easier, regulated access to DOGE through an ETF vehicle. Critics pushed back, warning that packaging a memecoin into a mainstream fund risks channeling more speculative cash into a product with no traditional utility. Based on market chatter, commentators raised questions about disclosure, trading rules, and whether retail investors fully understood the product’s risks. Public reaction split between excitement and caution. What To Watch Next Investors will be watching the sponsors’ new listing date, the fund’s first filings, and early inflows when the debut finally occurs. Order books, options open interest, and short interest are key early signals. If the fund draws strong inflows, Dogecoin could stay bid and push toward the $0.28–$0.30 targets some traders cite. If interest fades, gains could be tested quickly. This remains a developing story. Market participants should check live prices, official filings, and sponsor statements before trading. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Ondo Finance (ONDO) has risen as one of the top performers in the market this week, surging 20% to trade around $1.10. The rally comes as demand for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization accelerates, pushing Ondo’s TVL to record highs. The recently launched Ondo Global Markets platform has been a major growth driver, attracting over $160 million in assets within days. The service enables investors to access tokenized versions of more than 100 stocks and ETFs, including Tesla, Nvidia, and Google. By bringing Wall Street assets onto the blockchain, Ondo is positioning itself as a leader in the $26 billion RWA tokenization market. Analysts argue that this move could transform global investing, particularly for users outside the U.S., who have traditionally faced barriers to stock market participation. Ondo Finance’s Total Value Locked Hits $1.57 Billion Beyond its equities platform, Ondo Finance has seen explosive growth across its ecosystem. TVL on its DeFi protocols has surged from $563 million earlier this year to more than $1.57 billion today. This spike is primarily fueled by Ondo’s yield-bearing products, such as: Ondo US Dollar Yield (USDY): Over $500 million in assets Ondo Short-Term U.S. Treasuries Fund (OUSG): $724 million locked The firm’s lending arm, Flux, has also expanded rapidly, now managing $42 million in assets compared to just $4 million last November. Like Aave’s Horizon, Flux lets users borrow stablecoins against tokenized U.S. Treasuries, creating new liquidity avenues. Ondo has also launched its own blockchain, tailored for tokenization, which strengthens its moat in a sector projected to reach trillions of dollars in value. ONDO Price Outlook: Can Bulls Break $1.145? Technically, Ondo has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal signal. The token recently broke past the $1.05 resistance and is now eyeing a breakout above $1.145, last seen in July. A successful move could open the door toward $1.18 and even $1.26 in the short term. However, traders are watching closely for profit-taking risks, as ONDO’s relative strength index (RSI) signals overbought conditions. Regardless, with BlackRock signaling blockchain-based ETFs and Fed rate cuts expected to fuel a broader risk rally, momentum could remain in Ondo’s favor. If sustained, Ondo Finance’s surge not only grows its role as a DeFi leader but also builds the fast-growing demand for tokenized real-world assets. Cover image from ChatGPT, ONDOUSD chart from Tradingview