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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 1st The US government shutdown officially kicked in, but beyond a brief selloff in the US Dollar — which stopped well short of breaking any key levels — markets have largely brushed it aside: US equities reversed early weakness seen in futures and at the open, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbing to fresh all-time highs by the close. In commodities, gold extended its rally, coming within just $5 of the $3,900 mark in yet another push toward uncharted territory. With the dollar under pressure but not yet cracking, and risk assets pushing higher, investors seem willing to ignore Washington headlines — at least for now. In terms of geopolitcs, Hamas are expressing new demands regarding the deal, with an official response expected to release in less than three days. Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, the three top Hamas mediators are pressing the organization to accept the deal. In Europe, a new Russian aerial invasion was spotted in Norway overnight. Markets haven't seem to care much overall but watch for headlines about a NATO response, still not expected by much but always a possibility: European nations are discussing the placement of a "Drone-Wall" and many NATO military assets are being moved to strategic regions in Eastern Europe. Read More:Crypto demand spikes as US Government shutdown looms and data delays hit marketsUS Equities face uncertainty as US Government Shutdown begins – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlookUSD lower, Stocks higher from the US Government shutdown — North American mid-week Market updateCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Look at the beginning of Month asset inflows have brought in sudden flows to Cryptocurrencies which largely take the lead in asset performance. EU Stocks did show an impressive performance throughout the session, with the positive sentiment in Equities spreading to the US as the US Government shutdown gets progressively disregarded by all types of markets. Even the US dollar ended up ranging after its overnight correction. Once again, expect a volatile month (as a matter of fact, keep your expectations high throughout the rest of the year!) A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 1 – Source: OANDA Labs The US dollar corrected from its earlier session lows back to almost unchanged on the day, with the CAD and CHF moving lower instead. About the Swissie, it has been suffering throughout the past few sessions again many majors, and particularly against the Yen. The Japanese currency is actually finishing on top again followed by a Kiwi mean-reverting higher today. Check out our recent yen analysis right here! A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session isn't over for NZD traders with a test for the currency coming up soon: The New Zealand trade data is releasing later tonight (21:30 ET) at the same time as their Financial Stability release (keep an eye on this for the NZD). Tomorrow's session should be a bit more special however, with the Jobless claims that won't get released due to the Government shutdown and the Bureau of Labor Statistics not receiving the funding to maintain its activity. The same should happen for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. US Challenger job cuts (7:30 A.M. ET) could be pretty interesting in the absence of much labor data (after today's ADP miss). Back to the Pacific later in the day, Australia will release their Services PMI data later in the evening. Japan will then get the spolight with their Employment figures at 19:30 and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking tomorrow night. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Trend Analysis In October, from the level of 1.3441 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may begin moving upward with the target at 1.3990 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.3786 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (monthly chart). Indicator Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward.Comprehensive analysis conclusion: an upward trend is possible. Overall outcome for the GBP/USD monthly candle calculation: the price will most likely have an upward trend, with the absence of the first lower shadow of the monthly white candle (first week of the month – white) and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week of the month – black). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3441 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may begin moving upward with the target at 1.3786 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward with the target at 1.3592 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

SWIFT, the global network that handles most of the world’s cross-border payments, is preparing to launch its own blockchain as rumors about an ongoing payments battle with Ripple circulate. While many often compare SWIFT’s role to Ripple due to its XRP-linked payment solutions, this new plan is not a direct challenge to the fintech company, but rather part of a much larger trillion-dollar race to define the future of digital money. SWIFT Partners With Consensys To Build Blockchain Network According to the announcement, SWIFT is collaborating with Consensys, the Ethereum development company founded by Joe Lubin, to create a shared digital ledger that supports faster, cheaper, and more efficient international transactions. SWIFT is still keeping its blockchain ledger in the prototype stage, but leading banks are already testing it. JP Morgan in the United States and Deutsche Bank in Europe are among the major institutions participating in these early trials. SWIFT and its partners design the new infrastructure to support regulated stablecoins as well as tokenized assets. The shared ledger links directly to private blockchains that organizations use internally and to public blockchains open to the general public. By connecting the two, banks and financial companies in different regions will be able to join the platform without having to abandon the systems they already use. Ripple, long known for linking its XRP token with cross-border solutions, has been in this space for years. However, the announcement notes that SWIFT’s strategy differs. Instead of relying on a single cryptocurrency, it is creating a network that works directly with banks and established institutions. Trillion-Dollar Stablecoin Threat Pushes SWIFT Into Blockchain Race SWIFT’s move to launch its own blockchain could be part of a much bigger trillion-dollar battle in the payments world. Stablecoins, which are digital assets tied to fiat currencies, are now used in transactions worth trillions of dollars. The rise of stablecoins could challenge SWIFT’s long-established role in global payments. If banks begin to settle transactions directly with stablecoins, they may no longer depend on the global messaging network for cross-border transfers. The rapid growth of stablecoins could prompt banks to bypass SWIFT altogether, and if banks opt to use new digital payment systems instead, SWIFT’s role could shrink significantly. The global messaging network for financial institutions is now building the blockchain ledger within its framework to reduce this risk and prevent banks from migrating to rival providers. The move does not mean SWIFT is going head-to-head with Ripple alone. As stablecoins and tokenized money gain wider adoption, SWIFT is developing its own blockchain ledger to maintain its central position in the international payments market. The global financial messaging giant may be working to strengthen its leading position and prepare for the trillion-dollar race that could shape the international money transfer market.

Guanajuato Silver Company (TSXV: GSVR) is looking to raise as much as C$43 million ($31 million) in a bought deal public offering to support its Mexican mine operations. However, its shares dropped nearly 15% on the news. The company initially announced that it planned to raise C$30 million through the sale of 60 million units priced at C$0.50 each, but later increased the offering to C$43 million (87 million units) due to strong demand. The units each carry one common share and one-half of a common share purchase warrant, with each whole warrant exercisable at C$0.65 per share for three years. Guanajuato Silver’s stock traded at C$0.46 with a market capitalization of C$253.7 million ($182 million) by midday Wednesday following the financing announcement, having closed the previous session at C$0.54 a share. In its press release, the Vancouver-based company said the proceeds will go towards sustaining and development capital for its four operating mines in Mexico. It currently produces silver and gold concentrates from the El Cubo, Valenciana and San Ignacio mines located in the state of Guanajuato, as well as silver, gold, lead and zinc concentrates from the Topia mine in northwestern Durango. In August, Guanajuato closed an C$18 million private placement, issuing units at C$0.30 apiece. The funds, it said, would be used to upgrade its underground mining fleet and three processing facilities. Last month, the company announced the planned upgrades at the El Cubo mine and the Valenciana complex.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. We are now halfway through the week, and the main storyline has shifted squarely toward the US government shutdown, which has sparked a sharp N-shaped (for nope) reversal in the US Dollar. The greenback had been climbing steadily after a streak of upbeat economic data — GDP, jobless claims, and Powell’s more balanced-than-dovish tone last week pushed the DXY to fresh highs near 98.60. But shutdown rumors quickly flipped the narrative, triggering heavy selling pressure in the reserve currency, currently trading almost one full-handle below. That decline only deepened with today’s disappointing ADP employment release, while safe-haven flows steered further toward metals, with gold coming $5 off the $3,900 level. US equities have also largely shrugged off any negative outlook from the shutdown, as all three indices are potentially on track to reach new all-time highs. North of the border, Canada’s macro picture continues to underwhelm. Retail sales and household consumption are rising, but this morning’s Manufacturing PMI, at 47.7, showed contraction yet again. Meanwhile, the newly released Bank of Canada minutes confirmed that all members supported the recent cut to 2.50%. Markets now price a 55% chance of another 25 bps cut at the October 29 meeting. You can access the report right here. So, with the US shutdown shaking confidence in the dollar and Canadian data still soft, attention now shifts to whether metals and risk assets can maintain their momentum with the NFP data almost surely getting delayed. Let’s take a look at the charts. Read More:Crypto demand spikes as US Government shutdown looms and data delays hit marketsUS Equities face uncertainty as US Government Shutdown begins – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlookJapanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts. North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView North American indices have withheld a negative performance despite the ongoing narratives with the S&P 500 on top in the US and the Canadian TSX still beating its neighbors. On the other side of the Atlantic, European stocks have largely taken the lead with North American getting slowed down by the tariffs and downbeat economic performance. US Indices are still having a stellar day today with both the Nasdaq a Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Much has changed, both fundamentally and technically since our most-recent Dollar Index analysis which had supposed a much stronger US Dollar, particularly with the Head and Shoulders that had developed (now invalidated). With equity markets shrugging off the government shutdown, it will be interesting to see if the US Dollar maintains its lower descent. Breaking the session and weekly lows at 97.46 would point to a further correction towards the 97.00 handle. For bulls, look above the session highs 97.86 and a further rebound above the 98.00 Pivot. Levels to watch for the Dollar Index: Support Levels: August Range support 97.25 to 97.60weekly lows at 97.462025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Early 2022 Conslidation just below 96.0095.00 Key SupportResistance Levels: session highs 97.86 8H MA 200 98.1298.00 higher timeframe PivotCurrent range Extreme resistance 98.50100.00 Main resistance zoneUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, October 1, 2025 - Source: TradingView. With the post-FOMC US dollar rally, the greenback is still at a decent position compared to its mid-week bottom. Looking at the trends forming this week however, this might change. Both the JPY and AUD have held very strong however due to their own countries being subject to strong fundamentals. Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, October 1, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The momentum one turns his head, the Loonie loses a percent against all the other majors. Jokes aside, the Canadian dollar has lost against every major in the past week-and a half stretch and except for some small dip-buying today, the trajectory still doesn't look very glorious. Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView USDCAD is breaking higher after reaching new highs last Friday. A weekly close above the Aug 22 peak at 1.3925 would be needed to confirm such a breakout however, with 4H RSI momentum currently showing a divergence in what looks like an intraday double top. Levels to place on your USDCAD charts: Resistance Levels Friday Sep 29 highs around 1.3950 (double top?)1.40 Major resistanceApril 3 lows around 1.4050Support Levels 1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot1.3850 to 1.3860 support1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The rest of the week should be dominated by US data, but with the BLS data not releasing due to the shutdown, NFP and Jobless claims will not be released, which may lead to more uncertainty. Still, watch the Services PMI data releasing this Friday in the US, and keep an eye on headlines if the data ends up being programmed. More on this to come through our future reports. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin surged past the $115,000 level just a few hours ago, sparking speculation among investors about the potential for further upside. The move comes after weeks of tight consolidation that began in July, a period marked by choppy trading and indecision. Now, with momentum showing signs of returning, many analysts believe the next breakout could be aggressive, setting the tone for the final quarter of the year. The reclaim of $115,000 has reignited bullish sentiment, with traders closely watching whether Bitcoin can build a base above this threshold and aim for the next major resistance at $117,500. Historically, prolonged consolidation phases have often preceded strong directional moves, and the current setup suggests that volatility could soon accelerate. Adding weight to the bullish narrative, fresh data reveals that Metaplanet has expanded its Bitcoin treasury once again. The firm added 5,268 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total stash to 30,823 BTC. This significant purchase highlights growing institutional conviction in Bitcoin, even as prices remain locked in a range. Metaplanet Becomes 4th Largest Bitcoin Holder Top analyst Maartunn highlighted that Metaplanet’s latest purchase has further cemented its position among the largest Bitcoin holders in the world. With the addition of 5,268 BTC this week, Metaplanet’s treasury now stands at 30,823 BTC. This accumulation places the firm as the 4th largest corporate Bitcoin holder, trailing only industry giants such as Strategy (prev. MicroStrategy) and a few other leading institutions. The move underscores the growing appetite for Bitcoin among companies looking to diversify reserves and position themselves ahead of what many see as a long-term adoption cycle. This development comes at a crucial time for the market. Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, sparking fresh optimism after months of consolidation. Analysts point out that institutional moves like Metaplanet’s provide strong underlying support, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin remains attractive even at elevated prices. The coming days will be critical, as several analysts expect Bitcoin to continue pushing upward through October. Historically, this month has delivered some of the strongest rallies for BTC, earning the nickname “Uptober” within the community. If the pattern repeats, Metaplanet’s accumulation could prove to be well-timed, fueling further confidence in the asset. BTC Challenges Key Resistance Bitcoin is trading near $116,200 after staging a sharp recovery from recent lows around $109,000. On the daily chart, the price has reclaimed both the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, signaling renewed strength from buyers. This rebound has put Bitcoin within striking distance of the $117,500 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow, which has repeatedly capped rallies since July. A decisive breakout above this level would represent a major shift in momentum, potentially opening the path toward $120,000 and retests of the late-summer highs above $125,000. The fact that BTC has recovered so quickly from last week’s weakness underscores strong demand at lower levels. However, the market is not free of risk. The $117,500 level remains a critical barrier, and failure to clear it could invite profit-taking that pulls the price back toward $114,000 or even $112,000. The 200-day moving average (red), currently trending near $105,000, continues to provide a deeper layer of support that reinforces the broader uptrend. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has ignited a notable recovery in the broader cryptocurrency market, recording a 5% gain during Wednesday’s trading session to recover the $117,000 mark. This momentum has positively impacted major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB), which have seen average increases of around 3% in what may signal the onset of a new altcoin season. Crypto Prices Surge Amidst US Government Shutdown The surge in crypto prices coincided with political developments as the US Senate’s failure to pass a temporary funding bill resulted in a government shutdown shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Such uncertainty often leads investors to seek alternatives to the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as a hedge against economic instability. On Wednesday, the dollar remained stable against a basket of other currencies, further bolstering the appeal of digital assets. Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency finishing in positive territory 10 out of the past 12 years. Joel Kruger from LMAX Group also noted that Q4 has consistently been the strongest seasonal period for cryptocurrencies, adding to the bullish sentiment. However, not all analysts share the same optimistic outlook. Extended Bull Cycle For Bitcoin? Ash Crypto expressed caution, suggesting that the current rally might be a precursor to a more significant downturn, predicting a potential drop that could see Bitcoin retrace to around $106,000 and Ethereum to near $3,800. This anticipated correction, he argues, could liquidate overly optimistic positions, particularly among retail investors. He forecasts that this phase of uncertainty could persist until mid-October, potentially leading to a market rebound when bearish sentiment peaks. Conversely, Lark Davis has indicated a more bullish long-term perspective, suggesting that the current cycle may extend well into 2026 rather than peaking in the fourth quarter of the year as traditionally expected. The general sentiment remains that if the market can navigate through the short-term fluctuations, a substantial rally could occur, potentially driving Bitcoin to prices between $150,000 and $180,000, with Ethereum reaching between $8,000 and $12,000. According to Davis, such a scenario, in which could result in a major 53% and 200% for BTC and ETH respectively, could catalyze a significant altcoin season, with some assets potentially increasing in value by 10 to 50 times within just a few months. When writing, Bitcoin trades at $117,130, further posting gains of nearly 8% on the monthly time frame. This positions the market’s leading cryptocurrency just 5.7% below its all-time high, currently at $124,100, Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto pundit Mikybull Crypto has revealed that XRP has flipped green for the first time since 2017. Based on this, he predicted that the altcoin could record a rally of up to 500%, reaching $15 in the process. XRP Eyes Rally To $15 As Price Flips Green In an X post, Mikybull Crypto predicted that XRP could rally to between $5 and $15. This came as the analyst noted that the altcoin has flipped green on the quarterly chart for the first time since 2017. He suggested that the rally of up to 500% may already be underway, noting that XRP has already broken above the resistance, just as it did in 2017. In a follow-up X post, Mikybull Crypto doubled down on his bullish sentiment towards XRP, stating that the altcoin’s big move is incoming as it is heading for a mega breakout. His accompanying chart indicated that the key was for XRP to successfully flip the $2.90 level again into support and decisively break above the psychological $3 level. Related Reading: XRP Price Is About To Close A 3M Candle Above This Major Region, Here’s What It Means For Price Meanwhile, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has made a more bullish forecast for XRP, predicting that it could rally to as high as $33. Like Mikybull Crypto, the analyst also alluded to the 2017 bull cycle as the reason why XRP could witness a parabolic surge to this ambitious price target. However, although he is bullish on XRP in the long term, Egrag Crypto stated that he believes there might be one more flush out before the altcoin rallies to new highs. The crypto analyst further remarked that there is about a 70% chance for a flush before the XRP uptrend continues, which he noted is healthier from a structural point of view. He added that there is a 30% chance of an immediate pump but warned that it will eventually lead to a sharp correction. Egrag Crypto expects XRP to drop to at least $2.65, with the possibility of a further decline to the fair value gap between $2.35 and $2.40. Bearish Divergences Hint At Further Drop Before The Breakout Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated that XRP’s bearish divergences hint at lower support levels before a potential breakout to the upside. She noted that the downside tests remain valid, with $2.79 and $2.58 as the key support levels to watch out for as the altcoin remains below $3. The analyst added that a test of $2.58 could still support a much larger bullish move to new highs. However, CasiTrades warned that a break below $2.58 would invalidate the bullish market structure and threaten the macro outlook. Meanwhile, she told market participants that when XRP is truly ready to begin wave 3, the macro resistance levels at $2.79, $3, and $3.25 should break cleanly and without hesitation. If XRP continues to hesitate, she believes that further downside testing may be necessary first. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.8, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Shares of lithium producers in Australia slumped after Chinese regulators approved reserve reports for two major projects in Yichun, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Liontown Resources Ltd. tumbled as much as 10.6% at close in Australia, Pilbara Minerals shed 6.3%. The declines followed Bloomberg reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) secured approval for a reserve report at its Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province. Operations at the site have been suspended since August, after the battery giant failed to renew an expired mining permit. The approval brings CATL closer to a potential restart, though no timeline has been confirmed. Separately, Gotion High-Tech Co. Ltd., which continued operating through the period, also received reserve approval from China’s Ministry of Natural Resources. Gotion further disclosed that its mining design and ecological restoration plans have been cleared, granting it discretion to adjust production. The approvals came after authorities in Yichun required eight producers to submit updated reserve data, following an audit that flagged compliance gaps. The lithium hub has been under intense scrutiny in recent months, with licensing delays raising fears of supply shortfalls. Despite the regulatory progress, the broader market remains weighed down by oversupply and slowing electric vehicle demand. CRU Group estimates that lepidolite output from Yichun could have accounted for 11% of global supply this year, but disruptions and inspections have fueled sharp swings in lithium prices. “The anecdotal reports we’re hearing suggest a constructive and market-conscious stance from the ministry,” said Martin Jackson, head of battery raw materials at CRU. “Ultimately, we always anticipated a pragmatic approach to these licensing issues from Beijing.” (With files from Bloomberg)

The recent technical picture for Bitcoin presents a tug-of-war between short-term momentum and macro necessity. While the bulls are aggressively defending support and pushing toward the $117,000 resistance area, the yet-to-be-filled CME gap hangs over the market. This historical pattern suggests that although the price action is bullish, a mandatory downside move may be required to reset the chart before the target can truly be breached. Gap-Filling Before The Next Big Rally Ezy Bitcoin, in a recent short-term market outlook shared on X, explained that Bitcoin may need to close an existing gap before it can build momentum for its next major rally. However, such a move should not be seen as a weakness but rather as a healthy reset, one that could set the stage for a stronger push upward. He referenced the Bitcoin CME Futures chart, where the CrossX indicator highlights unfilled gaps that often act like magnets for price action. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to revisit these areas before resuming its climb, making them a key part of the near-term structure. Over the last five months, Ezy Bitcoin has noted every single gap has been filled, while maintaining a flawless 100% success rate. This consistency adds weight to the likelihood of a short-term retracement before another rally begins, reinforcing his expectation that the pattern will hold. With that in mind, he concluded that a minor pullback could create a valuable opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin. Rather than fearing a dip, traders and investors might see it as an entry point before the next strong upward move. Bitcoin Bulls Eye Recovery Momentum Despite Market Pressure According to the latest update from Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin demonstrated a rapid recovery after experiencing a sharp drop. The price briefly fell below the $113,000 mark but quickly managed to bounce back. This swift bounce from this level signals that buyers remain active and willing to step in at key zones, preventing any deeper correction for now. Currently, the price is moving upward again, and the immediate challenge is defined by a narrow resistance zone between $114,600 and $114,800. This range is acting as a local ceiling where selling pressure is likely to be concentrated. Overcoming this level is crucial for the continuation of the bullish move. Looking ahead, Crypto VIP Signal emphasized that a successful breakout above the $114,600–$114,800 resistance will open up the path to significantly higher targets between the $116,000 and $117,000 area. A move into this range would solidify the positive momentum and confirm that the recent drop was merely a brief shakeout, allowing the rally to continue.

Gold prices soared to a new record on Wednesday, lifted by safe-haven demand amid a US government shutdown, while softer jobs data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Spot gold rose as much as 1% to $3,895.13 an ounce, surpassing its previous all-time high of $3,871.45 set just a day ago. US gold futures surged to as high as $3,922.70 per ounce, also a new high. Click on chart for live prices. Driving the rally was the economic uncertainty of a US government shutdown — the first in seven years — which drove investors towards the safety of gold and assets like Bitcoin. The US dollar, meanwhile, continued to weaken, further bolstering the value of bullion. “The dollar has been under pressure because usually when the government shuts down, the mood turns quite negative on the US and both the dollar and US equity markets are one of the casualties,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, in a note to Reuters. Year to date, bullion has risen by more than 48%, putting it on track for the biggest annual jump since 1979. Over half of the gains have come in the past month and a half, as investors braced for the US Federal Reserve to begin slashing interest rates. Gold typically performs well under low-rate environments, as the metal yields no interest. Wednesday also saw the release of the latest ADP jobs report, which showed the biggest monthly decline in seasonally adjusted US private payrolls since March 2023. Signs of economic slowdown have fueled increased bets on additional Fed rate cuts, with the market pricing in a 99% chance of the next one happening this month. “The soft ADP jobs report is also not going to help the dollar. Yet another reason, slowing economy, meaning lower rates, all these things are bullish for gold,” Meir added. $4,000 target While investors continue to look out for US data to affirm their stance on the Fed’s policy path, the government shutdown could delay the release of several key economic indicators, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. Still, the rising uncertainty could play into gold investors’ hands. Major banks including UBS have recently upgraded their gold outlook to account for risk factors such as the US central bank’s independence. On Tuesday, Macquarie became the latest to lift its upside price target to $4,000/oz. for next year. “We are now seeing increased appetite from Western investors, both institutional and retail, as a case of ‘FOMO’ kicks in … Should this trend continue, we would not be surprised to see gold prices break above $4,000/oz.,” SP Angel wrote in a note. (With files from Reuters) Sponsored: Secure your wealth today — buy gold bullion directly through our trusted partner, Sprott Money.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor has dramatically softened his stance on stabelcoins. Talking to the Financial Times on 1 October 2025, Bailey said that it would be “wrong to be against stablecoins as a matter of principle.” Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to traditional currencies like the British Pound at a one-to-one ratio. And unlike Bitcoin, stabelcoins can offer stability while offering benefits of digital transactions. Hence, Bailey’s latest comments could finally indicate UK’s acceptance of stablecoins. Especially since industry analysts at Citigroup predict this market could explode to $4 trillion by 2030. “It is possible, at least partially, to separate money from credit provision, with banks and stablecoins coexisting and non-banks carrying out more of the credit provision role,” Bank of England Governor explained. Interestingly, Bailey previously was of the opinion that stablecoins couldn’t be a substitute for commercial bank money. Meanwhile, the US has seen rapid developments. Wyoming became the first state to launch a government-backed stable token, while Congress passed the GENIUS Act, banning stablecoin issuers from paying direct interest. EXPLORE: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Is The US–UK Crypto Alliance A Turning Point For Stablecoin Regulation? The US-UK crypto alliance is heating up, and industry insiders expect stablecoins to take centre stage. According to a Financial Times report published on September 16, 2025, this development occurred following a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Prominent firms such as Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple, along with banking giants including Citi, Bank of America, and Barclays, also attended the talks held in London. It appears that the syncing of the US-UK capital markets hinges on stablecoins. According to the report, British officials see regulatory alignment with the US as a means for UK firms to access deeper capital markets and secure fresh American investments. Read More: US-UK Crypto Alliance Heats UP With Stablecoins As Its Linchpin Key Takeaways Bailey’s evolving stance on stablecoins reflects the broader recognition that digital assets are here to stay and could play an important role in the future of finance. Bailey emphasized that stablecoins require careful regulatory oversight to ensure they truly live up to their “stable” promise. The post Bank of England Governor Signals Major Shift on Stablecoins: Could Transform UK’s Financial System appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

According to Arkham, a wallet labeled “Tether: Bitcoin Reserves” received 8,889 Bitcoin in a single transfer from Bitfinex. The move added roughly $1 billion to Tether’s holdings and pushed the firm’s Bitcoin stash to about $9.8 billion based on the market price. It was one of the biggest single top-ups to its BTC balance this year. Quarter-End Buying Pattern Based on reports, the timing of the buy was not random. Blockchain records show Tether has made similar quarter-end additions in September 2024, December 2024, and March 2025. Analysts say the pattern points to a deliberate effort to bolster reserves ahead of public attestations. Tether’s second-quarter attestation listed close to $9 billion in Bitcoin. The next official report is expected in late October and will show whether recent purchases are reflected on paper. A One-Time Transfer And Wider Moves The transfer from Bitfinex highlights close ties between the exchange and the company behind USDT. Activity like this has drawn attention because of the size and the source. In June, Tether also routed roughly $1.4 billion worth of BTC to Twenty One Capital, which is run by CEO Jack Mallers. That deal fed talk that Tether might reallocate some reserves into other assets, including gold, but CEO Paolo Ardoino pushed back on those claims and said Bitcoin remains central to the company’s plan. US Push And New Stablecoin Tether is also expanding in the US. The firm has set up a domestic branch led by Bo Hines, who previously advised the White House on crypto policy. Reports say Tether is planning a federally compliant stablecoin called USAT as part of that effort. The move suggests the company wants a bigger foothold inside US regulatory frameworks while keeping its global operations intact. USDT Growth And Market Role Crypto trackers show USDT’s circulating supply at roughly $175 billion, a 10% rise over the last quarter. That growth underscores the stablecoin’s role as a go-to dollar proxy for traders and DeFi users. With more USDT in circulation, exchanges and liquidity pools rely on it heavily during sharp market moves. Reserves And Market Signals Larger Bitcoin holdings and a push into the US raise fresh questions. Attestations are meant to build confidence, but critics still press for clearer transparency on how reserves are managed. Markets will be watching the late-October report closely. If Tether’s filings match on-chain activity, that could calm some concerns. If they do not, scrutiny is likely to grow. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Drilling at DPM Metals’ (TSX, ASX: DPM) Loma Larga project in Ecuador has been put on hold following widespread protests, the Canadian miner said as it released a new study that showed higher capital costs and smaller potential returns. A 23,000-metre drilling program, which had previously been expected to start in the second half, has been “paused,” DPM said late Tuesday without providing a timeframe. The company said it will “continue to engage with stakeholders to address their concerns, and work with the government to understand its expectations for resuming DPM’s planned activities.” Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa last month requested further information on Loma Larga, handing responsibility for the project’s approval or rejection to authorities in the southern province of Azuay. The move followed a request from provincial leaders that Environment Minister María Luisa Cruz revoke the environmental permit granted in June to DPM. In mid-September, area residents marched through Cuenca, the provincial capital, to demonstrate against the project, which they say will threaten the region’s water supply. “Permitting appears to be resurfacing as a potential challenge,” CIBC Capital Markets mining analyst Cosmos Chiu said in a note. Loma Larga “has been designed in line with the highest environmental and water management standards,” DPM CEO David Rae said in Tuesday’s statement. Toronto-based DPM “is confident that its environmental management plan and the robust environmental protection measures in place for the Loma Larga project are in full compliance with those standards,” the company also said, adding that it’s committed to working transparently with stakeholders to demonstrate the social and economic benefits of the project. DPM’s updated feasibility study for Loma Larga raises initial capital costs by 87% to $593 million, while the post-tax net present value (NPV) increases 7.5% to $488 million compared with the initial document, which was released in 2020. The after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) now stands at 18.1%, down from 28.3% previously. Estimated capital costs are “well within DPM’s funding capacity,” the company said. They include the development of the underground mine, the construction of a 1.2-million-tonne-per-year processing plant, a water treatment plant, a diesel power plant and electrical infrastructure upgrades. DPM, previously known as Dundee Precious Metals, inherited Loma Larga in 2021 when it acquired Vancouver-based miner INV Metals. It officially changed its name on Sept. 12. The update lowers mine life by one year to 11 years, as well as average annual production by about 15% to 173,000 gold-equivalent ounces. The payback period rises to 3.4 years from 2.4 years. The refreshed study “reflects an optimized project layout, inflationary pressures and (an) additional power plant to supplement Ecuador’s power grid and contingencies,” National Bank Financial mining analyst Don DeMarco said Wednesday in a note. The increase in initial costs “should not come as a surprise, given industry-wide inflation that has materialized during this period,” Chiu added. The estimated IRR “supports the economic merits of the project.” DPM envisions total output of 1.9 million payable gold equivalent oz. at an average all-in sustaining cost of $873 per oz. of gold sold. Construction and commissioning would take two years. Key assumptions include a 5% discount rate and estimated metal prices of $1,900 per oz. gold, $27.50 per oz. silver and $4 per lb. copper. The updated feasibility study is based on reserves of 12.6 million tonnes grading 4.7 grams gold per tonne, 28.6 grams silver and 0.29% copper for contained metal of 1.9 million oz. of gold, 11.6 million oz. of silver and 80 million lb. of copper. Resources could potentially be increased. The deposit remains open in numerous directions, with multiple high sulphidation and low sulphidation epithermal and porphyry targets identified within the 80-sq.-km land package, DPM said. Shares of DPM rose 1.1% to C$31.18 late Wednesday morning in Toronto, boosting the company’s market value to about C$6.9 billion. The stock has traded between C$12.30 and C$32.06 in the past year.

The US government shutdown officially took effect at midnight, immediately clouding the economic calendar with uncertainty. You can track the latest headlines on the shutdown right here. Key releases, including the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls and weekly Jobless Claims, are set to be delayed — leaving markets grasping for alternative signals on the labor picture. That made today’s ADP private employment report all the more critical, and it disappointed: a sharp miss at –32K versus +52K expected, coupled with yet another downward revision for August (-3K vs +54K announced). This should at least keep rate cuts hope high with a 25 bps cut still 99% priced in. On the manufacturing front, the 10:00 A.M. ISM Manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 49.1 from 48.7, but the improvement was largely driven by a steep rise in Prices Paid, hinting at lingering cost pressures from tariffs rather than genuine expansion. For now, investors appear to be treating the shutdown as a temporary hurdle with stocks rallying strongly, but the risk of extended delays — especially as layoffs become a growing concern — could weigh more heavily if the stalemate drags on. You can also access an interest take on the shutdown here. North American Data releases from this morning, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Daily US Equity Heat Map – October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is mostly red, except for the Health sector seeing strong rebalancing after a downbeat performance the past weeks. A Daily outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones before taking a closer look Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the not-too-enthusiastic session, the main US indices are holding their relative highs and rallied back from a selloff at the open. European equities (Eurostoxx) on the other hand are enjoying the US turmoil and closing at new record highs. Read More: Crypto demand spikes as US Government shutdown looms and data delays hit marketsMarkets Today: Euro Area Inflation Ticks Up, Gold Eyes $3900/oz, DAX Breaches Confluence Level & US Government Shutdown in FocusJapanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year Let's take a look at intraday charts and levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US IndicesS&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView US equities are getting a strong boost from the cut odds that keep getting confirmed in an ongoing strong move: 6,700 just got reached as I am writing this. Recent All-time highs for the S&P 500 could be getting tested very soon – watch the 6,710 for a potential break higher. Bears could look at a break of the 6,664 lows from overnight futures trading. It isn't surprising to see Stocks rallying on bad news, but still pretty impressive flows! S&P 500 Trading Levels: Resistance Levels 6,710 (new All Time-Highs)6,700 psychological levelpotential resistance 1 (1.382 fib 6,745 to 6,760)potential resistance 2 (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels 6,570 to 6,600 Key Pivot and channel lows (recent rebound 6,586)6,490 to 6,512 support6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 4H chart and levels Nasdaq 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView Same as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq is reaching higher levels in a hurry in the latest bull flows, also holding its upward channel. Markets really don't seem too scared from the shutdown, looking more at the upcoming FED cuts. Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance Levels current ATH 24,824ATH Resitance fib-Extension (from August lows) around 24,800potential resistance 1around 25,000 (fib extension)1.618 potential resistance around 25,300 (high of channel)Support Levels Fib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow is still evolving within its ascending wedge after a failed breakout attempt, but its ongoing buying momentum is huge. Keep an eye on the price action as prices are entering All-time high resistances for all three major US indices. Levels for Dow Jones trading: Resistance Levels 1.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830Current ATH 46,794High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels 46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750 Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Hooked on Headlines: Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News Financial Decisions and Headlines Financial markets today are hooked on news, so much so that it often feels like an addiction. Headline news is the primary mechanism by which uncertainty is reduced and expectations are formed. At the same time, news can create new uncertainty, especially when it delivers a surprise. That uncertainty can spark volatility. While investors often dislike volatility, traders thrive on it, as it creates opportunities for quick gains. In this article, we break down why news matters to financial markets and why traders can’t escape the pull of the next headline. Financial Decisions – Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News 1. News Shapes Market Expectations Markets are forward-looking, constantly pricing in expectations about economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, and risk. This applies across equities, forex, bonds, and commodities. A single headline can shift expectations, even slightly, and prices may adjust instantly, sometimes in what appears to be a mere knee-jerk reaction. 2. Markets React Most to Surprises Scheduled economic reports matter, but reactions are strongest when the data misses or beats forecasts. Similarly, unexpected events, such as geopolitical shocks, central bank or other officials’ comments , or natural disasters can move markets sharply. News algorithms (or “news algos”) are designed to react instantly to keywords and headlines. This can trigger stop-loss orders and cascade into large, fast price swings, something traders both anticipate and hope to exploit. Reaction to ADP Employment miss Financial Decisions – Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News 3. Liquidity and Positioning Matter The timing of news is critical. A surprise announcement late in the U.S. trading session, when liquidity is thinner, can cause outsized moves or even over a weekend that may create price gaps. Positioning also plays a big role. If traders are heavily positioned one way, unexpected news in the opposite direction can trigger rapid position adjustments, stop runs, or institutional rebalancing even if the headline itself isn’t particularly groundbreaking. 4. Trader Psychology Fuels Reactions Markets are not purely rational. Traders love the volatility caused by news, but psychology often amplifies reactions. Negative headlines can cause exaggerated selling, while positive news may spark overenthusiastic buying. Emotional trading frequently drives overshooting, increasing short-term volatility. 5. Media and Algos Fuel the Addiction News agencies compete for attention, often publishing eye-catching, dramatic headlines. Automated trading systems scan these headlines and react in milliseconds. While retail traders can’t compete with algorithmic speed, they still depend on news sources to stay on top of the news and assess the reacdtions.. This feedback loop between media, algos, and traders reinforces the market’s dependency on constant news flow. 6. Is Most News Just Noise? When the dust settles, most headlines prove to be short-term noise. Initial market reactions may fade quickly, and prices often revert. Still, the risk remains that a single news event could mark a turning point. That’s why traders react instantly firstand reassess later. Hooked on Headlines: The Market’s Addiction Financial markets are unlikely to check into “news rehab” anytime soon. The addiction is too deeply ingrained: • Traders seek the volatility headlines generate. • Institutions monitor news to protect and adjust portfolios. • Algorithms trade instantly on newswire triggers. But what happens when the flow slows? U.S. Government Shutdown Threatens to Delay Key Jobs Report and Shake Global Markets Could Markets Face Withdrawal? During the current U.S. government shutdown, for example, key economic data (e.g. employment, CPI, etc.) will likely be delayed. Without those regular headline triggers, markets can drift into choppy, unpredictable trading. Positioning ahead of big data releases often adds structure to market behavior while without it, volatility may still emerge, but in more erratic ways. In the end, markets are hooked on headlines. And as long as news drives uncertainty and expectation, traders and investors alike will remain addicted to the next big story. Financial Decisions – Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News Bloomberg – Business News The post Hooked on Headlines: Why Financial Markets Are Addicted to News appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

The global gold sector was jolted this week by a cascade of major developments not seen in decades. It began with the sudden departure of Mark Bristow from Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX) (NYSE: B). The long-time executive, who had pledged in May to stay until 2028 to oversee projects such as the $9-billion Reko Diq copper and gold mine in Pakistan, stepped down abruptly. Barrick quickly named Mark Hill as interim chief while it searches for a permanent replacement. Bristow, a South African known for his blunt style and penchant for risk-taking, took the helm of Barrick in 2019 after orchestrating its merger with Randgold, where he had generated a 4,000% return. But his tenure at Barrick frustrated some investors, as the Toronto-based miner has struggled to match rivals’ performance despite record-breaking gold prices. Barrick has also been mired in disputes, including a tax standoff in Mali that cost it control of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Another one bites the dust Within minutes of Barrick’s announcement, rival Newmont (NYSE: NEM) unveiled its own shakeup. Natascha Viljoen, the company’s chief operating officer who was promoted to president just in May, will become Newmont’s chief executive on January 1, succeeding Tom Palmer upon his retirement. Viljoen, credited with operational gains at Anglo American Platinum, will be the first woman to lead Newmont in its 104-year history. The timing of these leadership shifts coincides with gold’s blistering run. Prices have surged more than 45% this year, hitting successive records — above $3,800 an ounce on Monday and peaking over $3,870 on Tuesday. Yet both Barrick and Newmont have lagged peers like Agnico Eagle and Kinross, frustrating shareholders eager for stronger returns. Golden IPO Capping a whirlwind week, China’s Zijin Mining vaulted into the spotlight. The company surpassed $100 billion in market capitalization late last week, becoming the world’s third-largest miner by value. On Tuesday, its subsidiary Zijin Gold International raised $3.2 billion in a Hong Kong IPO, nearly half of the $6.7 billion the sector attracted from new listings and block trades in the third quarter. With prices soaring and power shifting, the gold sector is hurtling into a new era.

Trend Analysis In October, from the level of 1.1732 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1918 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). From this level, a corrective move downward is possible with the target at 1.1664 – the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (monthly chart). Indicator Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward.Comprehensive analysis conclusion: an upward trend is possible. Overall outcome for the EUR/USD monthly candle calculation: the price will most likely have an upward trend, with the absence of the first lower shadow of the monthly white candle (first week of the month – white) and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week of the month – black). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1732 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may continue moving upward with the target at 1.2084 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). From this level, a downward move is possible with the target at 1.1710 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has taken on a rather complex form. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend is canceled, though a more complicated wave structure in the near term is quite possible. The formation of the upward trend section continues, and the news background largely supports not the dollar but the euro. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's "dovish" expectations regarding Fed rates are growing. The market holds a very low opinion of Trump's first 6–7 months in office, despite nearly 4% GDP growth in Q2. At this point, it can be assumed that the construction of impulse wave 5 is underway, with targets possibly extending as high as the 1.25 level. Within this wave, the internal structure is rather complex and ambiguous, but the larger scale does not raise major questions. Three upward waves can currently be identified, suggesting that the instrument is now forming wave 4 within 5, which is taking a three-wave shape and may already be complete. A stronger decline in quotes would require adjustments to the current wave count. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose by 30–40 basis points during Wednesday ahead of the U.S. session. By the end of the day, U.S. currency losses could be much heavier. In the first half of the day, sellers found support from the eurozone inflation report, which in my view was misinterpreted by market participants. But it is what it is. And just an hour ago, the U.S. ADP employment report was released, which may turn out to be the only labor data this week. Recall that today the U.S. officially entered a "shutdown." This means that all government agencies without "critical importance" status go into indefinite unpaid leave. In other words, they suspend operations until a budget agreement is reached for the next year. Accordingly, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is also shutting down. Therefore, Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports will most likely not be released on schedule. To be fair, I wouldn't be 100% certain of this, as many issues are currently being decided "with a phone call from the White House." But at this moment, market participants are forced to assess the U.S. labor market only by the ADP report, which under normal circumstances is considered secondary. The ADP report today showed September employment at -32,000 jobs. This is the weakest reading in the past 2.5 years. Of course, Nonfarm Payrolls could (or would) have been higher, but now it is not certain we will know. General conclusions Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend section. The wave structure still depends entirely on the news background linked to Trump's decisions, as well as the domestic and foreign policies of the new White House administration. Targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 1.25 level. At this stage, corrective wave 4, which may already be complete, is being formed. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I only consider buying trades. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. On a smaller scale, the entire upward section of the trend can be seen. The wave count is not the most standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the senior wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this happens. I remind you that it is best to focus on clear structures on the charts, rather than forcing every single wave into the count. The upward structure now raises almost no questions. The main principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter it.There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The test of 147.23 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 147.23 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, which triggered scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but the pair did not actually manage to grow afterward. For further downward movement in USD/JPY later in the day, the key drivers will be the U.S. ADP employment change report and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Investors will carefully analyze the incoming data to assess the state of the U.S. economy and the Fed's policy outlook. However, it should be emphasized that only significantly weak readings could trigger another wave of dollar selling and yen buying. Moderately negative or neutral results are unlikely to have a major impact, as the market has already priced in a degree of uncertainty about the Fed's next moves. The ISM Manufacturing Index, in particular, will be critical. A result below expectations may reinforce concerns about slowing U.S. growth, prompting investors to move out of dollar assets into safer instruments, such as the yen, which traditionally gains demand during periods of instability. Conversely, strong U.S. data will support the dollar and likely push USD/JPY upward. As for intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 147.31 (green line on the chart) with a target at 147.83 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.83, I will exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point pullback). A rally can be expected only if U.S. data is very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 147.04 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 147.31 and 147.83 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 147.04 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline. The key bearish target will be 146.66, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point pullback). Selling pressure may persist if the data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 147.31 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 147.04 and 146.66 can then be expected. What's on the chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for Take Profit or manual exit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for Take Profit or manual exit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you skip money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on current market moves is an inherently losing intraday trading strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British Pound The test of 1.3472 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3472 coincided with MACD being in the overbought area, which triggered scenario #2 for selling. The UK Manufacturing PMI released today confirmed analysts' forecasts, providing no momentum for further GBP/USD growth. The data matched expectations, indicating no unexpected changes in the country's manufacturing activity. This anticipated outcome nullified previous attempts of the pound to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. Traders had likely priced in the expected PMI level, so the actual figure did not lead to a reassessment of the pound's outlook. For further upside in GBP/USD later in the day, U.S. data will be key: the ADP employment change report and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Investors will closely examine these figures for hints on the state of the U.S. economy. However, it should be noted that only significantly weak U.S. data can spark a strong wave of pound buying. Otherwise, even moderately negative or neutral results are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the pair. The ISM Manufacturing Index will also be in focus. A reading below expectations could heighten concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth, pushing investors toward safer assets, including the British pound. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point near 1.3474 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.3514 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3514, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point pullback). A strong pound rally can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3453 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3474 and 1.3514 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3453 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline. The key bearish target will be 1.3419, where I will exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point pullback). The pound may drop sharply in the second half of the day after strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3474 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3453 and 1.3419 can then be expected. What's on the chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or closing manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or closing manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you skip money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing intraday trading strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Euro The test of 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1770, with MACD in the overbought area, triggered scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a 30-point decline in the pair. Revised upward data on the eurozone manufacturing PMI still showed a decline compared to the previous month, which negatively affected the euro in the first half of the trading day. Inflation figures fully matched economists' forecasts, which also failed to spark renewed demand for risk assets. Despite the revisions, the outlook for the eurozone's manufacturing sector remains uncertain. Declining activity indicates persistent logistical difficulties, which will weigh on eurozone economic growth for Q3. Today, market participants will focus on the ADP employment data and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. However, whether these reports will be released remains uncertain. The U.S. government shutdown may lead to a pause in statistical publications. If released, the ADP report will be closely examined by investors and analysts as a leading indicator for Friday's official employment statistics. Discrepancies between the two reports could trigger market volatility and force traders to adjust forecasts. The ISM index is an important indicator of U.S. economic health: values above 50 indicate growth in manufacturing, while values below 50 point to contraction. Market reaction to the ISM release is usually immediate: positive data tend to support the dollar, while negative data pressure it. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2. Buy Signal Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible around 1.1740 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1785. At 1.1785, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point pullback from the entry point. Euro growth today will depend on weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price makes two consecutive tests of 1.1705 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1740 and 1.1785 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1705 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1661, where I intend to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the U.S. statistics are strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price makes two consecutive tests of 1.1740 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1705 and 1.1661 can then be expected. What's on the chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or closing the trade, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or closing the trade, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you skip money management and trade large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based only on current market moves is an inherently losing intraday strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crypto analyst Trader Mayne is cautioning that Bitcoin may be setting up for a sharper drawdown before resuming its broader uptrend into year-end, arguing that a “$98,000 weekly liquidity level” sits uncollected below price and could be targeted early in October. Two Price Scenarios For Bitcoin In a video analysis posted on September 30 titled “Did Bitcoin Just Top? The Signal Everyone’s Ignoring…,”Mayne outlined a two-track playbook: a tactical long on a lower-timeframe liquidity sweep that could precede a deeper correction, and, if that setup fails, a decisive flush that takes out $98,000 before a fourth-quarter continuation higher. “TLDR — I think we are due for a larger correction soon, to take out the $98k weekly liquidity level,” Mayne wrote in his teaser via X, adding that “there may be a short term long set up that precedes that correction” and that he still expects higher prices in Q4, making “an early dump…a buying opp.” On Bitcoin’s structure, Mayne said the market has respected his recent roadmap: a push up, a retest, and now a decision point defined by higher-timeframe “breaker” levels and intraweek lows. “We had the daily flip bullish on Bitcoin, right? We closed above the breaker,” he said, noting that while the monthly chart is also constructive, “the weekly chart is technically bearish.” With two higher timeframes leaning bullish against a soft weekly, he is looking to the four-hour chart to synchronize the next trade. “If the H4 is bullish, which it is, if I take a setup on some sort of liquidity run on the H4, that’s going to sync me back up with the daily at least.” The immediate trigger, in his view, is a sweep of local lows to tighten risk rather than “aping” into a broad retest with a wide invalidation. “I would like to see one of these H4 little liquidity pools here get run and then…that becomes my setup and my stop is tight. I have clear targets over here,” he explained. He highlighted “Monday’s low” as a relevant pivot that, if taken, could produce a mean-reversion long into a nearby daily bearish breaker and prior highs. “Maybe we even run this first, right? And then get the pullback. But either way, that’s what I’m looking for on Bitcoin here.” Mayne underscored that invalidation is non-negotiable. If price loses the intraweek baseline on a closing basis, he abandons longs and prepares for a larger washout. “If Bitcoin gets an H4 close below here…we’ll probably nuke to $98,000,” he said, tying the trigger to a failure back below Monday’s low and the range floor. In other words, the same liquidity dynamics he seeks to exploit for a tactical bounce could, if they break, accelerate the “$98k” clean-out he believes the weekly chart still “owes.” One Last Dip Before Q4 Fireworks He mapped the Ethereum structure as analogous, with the daily and 12-hour trends flipping constructive into a weekly order block, but with the same need for a precise entry via a low-timeframe liquidity grab. “ETH very similar, right? We had the daily flip bullish…we’ve got the breaker. It’s retesting this order block here,” he said. He described an H12/weekly combination where a “weekly SFP” and “structure break” are in motion, but stressed placement of the stop remains “tricky” unless a Monday-low sweep offers a cleaner trigger. “To me, ETH looks good here to fill in some of this…assuming we can get that setup,” he added. The conditional nature of the plan is central. Mayne is willing to attempt continuation longs into nearby resistance if and only if the market prints the sweep that tightens his invalidation. Failing that, he expects downside first. “If we don’t get this little setup to here, I think there’s a very strong chance that we’re going to, you know, at least do one of these, right? and nuke this liquidity here and then get the real move up,” he said. He reiterated the timeframe check: “If we get an H4 close below Monday’s low [near $111,000]…all bets are off and we might actually start the month of October down.” Despite the caution, the macro-tactical stance remains buy-the-dip for Q4. Mayne repeatedly framed any early-October weakness as an opportunity rather than the start of a cyclical top. “Ultimately, I’m of the mindset that…this dip that may come, whether it’s from right here or after a push higher…is a dip we want to buy ’cause we’re in the endgame here,” he said. “It’s October, November, December. We’re in Q4… I believe we trade higher in Q4.” At press time, BTC traded at $116,238.

Nova Minerals (NASDAQ, ASX: NVA) has been awarded $43.4 million by the US Department of War (DoW) to support the production of antimony trisulfide at its Estelle project in Alaska. Shares of the Australian miner skyrocketed on the news. The DoW funding, provided under Defense Production Act Title III, will go towards Nova’s US-based subsidiary Alaska Range Resources, which holds an 85% interest in the Estelle project. Located 150 km northwest of Anchorage, Estelle is a district-scale project that spans a 35-km mineralized corridor and hosts 20 identified gold prospects, including four large, near-surface gold deposits. Together, these deposits hold nearly 10 million oz. in resources, calculated under JORC standards, making it one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold assets. The property covers 514 km² of Alaska public land and lies within the Tintina gold belt, a province with more than 220 million oz. of documented gold endowment and some of the world’s largest gold mines and discoveries, such as Kinross’ Fort Knox gold mine. Alaska antimony The Tintina belt is also known to host significant Antimony deposits and was once a supply of the mineral to the North American market, in particular during wartimes. Government data shows that antimony ores from at least 25 deposits in the state were shipped to markets between 1905 and 1986, and the mineral is found to be associated with some of Alaska’s major gold deposits. The grey-colored metal is currently listed by the US government as critical to national and economic security, due to its high use and importance in defense and high-tech applications. However, the US has not produced antimony commercially since 2016, making domestic supply a priority in light of President Donald Trump’s executive order earlier this year to bolster American production of critical minerals. Recently, Nova discovered antimony coincident with the gold in surface sampling on numerous prospects across the Estelle mineral claims, elevating the project’s status as a critical mineral play that aligns with the Trump administration’s strategy. While no resource has yet been established for antimony, the company has said it plans to publish a resource estimate for the critical mineral some time this year. The DoW award, the company says, will enable its ARR unit to accelerate development of a fully integrated US supply chain to extract, concentrate and refine stibnite to produce military-grade antimony trisulfide to assist in meeting the nation’s defense industrial base demands. Nova’s CEO Christopher Gerteisen said this partnership would support America’s buildout of a “fully domestic, redundant supply chain” for the munitions and other defense products, as well as future supply to the US industrial base for a wide range of traditional and high-tech applications, including semiconductors and energy systems. He went on to say that the DoW award “provides further confidence in the quality of antimony mineralization and highlights the potential scale and scope of future antimony production from the Estelle project.” The $43.4 million funding, according to Gerteisen, will be used for the initial phase of a state-of-the-art antimony mining and refining hub based in Alaska to supply refined antimony products to the US industrial base and beyond. The award follows the Pentagon’s recent $245 million contract with United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE: UAMY), which operates the only two smelters in North America with long-standing capacity to process the metal. Shares of Nova Minerals jumped by as much as 20% to a 52-week high of $20.87 on the NASDAQ, taking its market capitalization to about $130 million.

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader. #instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com