-
Total de itens
7106 -
Registro em
-
Última visita
-
Dias Ganhos
2
Tipo de Conteúdo
Perfis
Fóruns
Market Outlook
Tudo que Redator postou
-
AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold?
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Most Read: Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels AUD/USD has risen 0.6% from its Tuesday low of 0.6572 as the US Dollar continued its slide. The Dollar struggle is partly linked to a potential US Government shutdown with Congress needing to agree to temporary funding before 04h00 GMT on Wednesday. RBA Rate Hold Boosts Aussie Dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its main interest rate, known as the cash rate, unchanged at 3.6%. This decision was expected by the markets and indicates a more cautious approach by the central bank. This careful stance is due to concerns that overall inflation is starting to creep up toward the top of the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Because of this decision, the chances of the RBA cutting rates at its next meeting in November are now much lower, which is helping to keep the Australian dollar strong. According to LSEG data, markets are now pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hold from the RBA at the November meeting. Source: LSEG The recent rise in annual CPI inflation to 3% is causing uncertainty about whether it is just a temporary spike or a sign of deeper, lasting inflation problems. Specifically, prices for housing-related items, like rent and new homes, showed renewed strength, which might suggest the housing market is reacting to the RBA's earlier rate cuts. Furthermore, the sharp increase in prices for services, such as holidays, travel, and insurance, points to a rebound in consumer spending. As things stand, the RBA would like to see inflation pushing lower toward the 2.5% mark and sustainably so. If this happens, there is a chance that a rate cut in November could yet materialize. In the interim though, the Aussie Dollar should get a boost from the RBA decision and rhetoric. US Data and Government Shutdown Now in Focus The rest of the week will see attention shift to the US Dollar and its reaction to a potential US Government shutdown. A shutdown could lead to the NFP data release being delayed and that could bring about some form of volatility. If temporary funding is agreed, then attention will immediately shift to NFP and jobs data from the US. A weaker NFP print could aid the AUD/USD to rise further and test the YTD high. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD is on a three day winning streak after bouncing off support at the 100-day MA. Structure has been broken with Tuesday's daily candle closing above the recent swing high at 0.6600. Further strengthening the case for further upside, is the bull flag breakout which occurred on Tuesday as well. Immediate resistance rests at 0.6684 before the 0.6750 and 0.7000 psychological level comes into focus. If AUD/USD pushes lower from here, immediate support rests at 0.6542, 0.6522 and 0.6500. A break below 0.6500 could open up a retest of the 200-day MA, which rests at the 0.6408 handle. AUD/USD Daily Chart, September 30, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. -
The Japanese yen continues to gain intraday strength. Despite mixed views expressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its recently released Summary of Opinions, investors appear convinced that the central bank is leaning toward a path of monetary policy normalization. This perception is helping to offset weak domestic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales, lending additional support to the yen. Rising geopolitical tensions and fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown also contribute to the yen's demand as a safe-haven currency. The Bank of Japan's tone remains notably hawkish, standing in contrast to growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. This divergence is weighing on the dollar and supporting demand for the lower-yielding yen, indicating a broader shift toward downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The yen continues to benefit from both the BoJ's relatively aggressive policy stance and increased safe-haven flows. The BoJ's Summary of Opinions for September, published on Tuesday, showed mounting pressure from "hawks" advocating for policy normalization. Still, board members remained uncertain about the dynamics of inflation and the influence of global economic factors, signaling that any future rate hikes will be carefully considered. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's retail sales slipped by 1.1% year-over-year in August — the first decline since February 2022 and the steepest drop since August 2021. This was significantly worse than the market's forecast for a 1% increase and followed a 0.4% decrease in July. Additionally, industrial production declined for the second consecutive month, falling 1.2% in August, against expectations for a 0.7% decrease. These figures reflect growing caution among Japanese businesses, partly due to concerns over U.S. tariffs. Regarding recent trade developments, the U.S. administration announced on Tuesday that President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to adjust the import regime for lumber, timber, and related products. Imports from the European Union and Japan will be subject to a restriction of up to 15%. At the same time, domestic political uncertainty in Japan is fueling speculation that the BoJ may delay its next rate hike, which in turn limits further immediate gains in the yen following two consecutive days of appreciation versus the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, a major pullback in the currency remains unlikely. Traders are still factoring in the potential for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BoJ as soon as October. Meanwhile, expectations for two Fed rate cuts before year-end, combined with risks from the U.S. government shutdown, continue to cap the dollar's upside and support the lower-yielding but more stable Japanese yen. From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair has found support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), just above a key support level at 147.50. A sustained break below this level could send the pair down toward the psychological 147.00 mark, increasing the probability of a bearish trend continuation. Should prices recover above the psychological level of 148.00, the pair may attempt to revisit the 200-day SMA around the 148.40 area — followed again by resistance at the round number of 149.00 and then 149.45. A successful break of this zone could open the door toward the sentiment-sensitive 150.00 level. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, keeping upward momentum modestly alive and leaving some hope for the bulls. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
October 1 – The Great Day of the Great Shutdown. Part 3
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
How will the dollar react to the shutdown? So far, the market isn't jumping the gun—it's not rushing ahead of the train. However, economists have reviewed historical price data and found that during the last three government shutdowns, the dollar has inevitably declined. The decline didn't start immediately—it kicked in over time and even continued after the shutdowns ended. In simpler terms, a shutdown is like a time-delayed landmine for the U.S. dollar. Take the previous shutdown, for example, which ironically happened under Trump's first term in 2018–2019. It was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 35 days. During that time, the dollar lost about 2% of its value. That might not sound catastrophic, but back then, there weren't nearly as many other forces weighing down the dollar on the forex market. Today, the shutdown is far from the dollar's biggest problem. The looming issue of future monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve promises even greater losses for the dollar. The still-escalating trade war is poised to further erode the value of the U.S. currency. And if Trump continues to criticize the FOMC and attempts to fire every official who doesn't want to cut rates, the dollar will continue to drop. The shutdown is merely the cherry on a three-tiered cake—each layer pulling the dollar lower in the coming years. One of the many cherries, to be sure, since other, less prominent factors are also gnawing away at demand for the greenback. Among them: the labor market, business activity, and the unemployment rate—all of which are slated for release this week. But due to the government shutdown, this data might never see the light of day. Investors would be justified in interpreting this uncertainty as yet another reason to sell the U.S. dollar. Markets hate uncertainty—and during Trump's presidency, uncertainty is arguably the hallmark of the administration. Now imagine a situation where even key economic data stops coming out. How would markets, or even the Fed, gauge the state of the U.S. economy—especially the labor market, which is critical for shaping FOMC policy? In my view, traders may prefer to err on the side of caution and sell off the dollar until Trump finds common ground with the Democrats. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
October 1 – The Great Day of the Great Shutdown. Part 2
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Since everything Trump does is "Great," the shutdown will likely be Great as well — albeit with a negative side. This time, Trump has decided not to simply send federal workers home while he and his team attempt to negotiate with the Democrats. Instead, he's opted for a more dramatic move: to fire government employees — and blame the Democrats for it. It may look and sound absurd, but let's not forget that Trump is a gambler. And gamblers love to bluff. I believe this is just that — a bluff — and no one is actually going to be fired. However, Trump will play this card as a trump (no pun intended) in his standoff with the Democrats. Without a doubt, he will announce loudly to the nation that he is working tirelessly toward a Great Future for America, while the Democrats are putting up roadblocks by refusing to approve the 2026 budget along with the passage of "one big and beautiful law." It's worth remembering that this very law includes major cuts to healthcare and welfare programs for the economically disadvantaged. If the shutdown begins tomorrow, Trump won't miss the opportunity to proclaim that he was "forced" to fire government employees — and to blame the Democrats for it. Yesterday, an emergency meeting was held between Congress and the White House to reach an agreement on at least temporary government funding through November 21. Unsurprisingly, the parties failed to reach a consensus. But frankly, that's no surprise. Just recall all of Trump's ultimatums to various nations around the world! Trump doesn't enter negotiations — he issues demands that the other side is expected to comply with. So any talks with Trump are hardly negotiations in the traditional sense of the word. The Republicans wanted an unconditional extension of government funding, intending to discuss healthcare and social welfare programs only afterward. The Democrats rightly saw a trap in this "fairy-tale offer": once funding is secured, Trump would no longer be incentivized to consider the Democrats' demands. Let's also be clear — a shutdown is not just a "national vacation." It is another direct blow to the economy. And while the U.S. economy grew by a record 3.8% in the second quarter, many economists are skeptical of this growth. Depending on its duration, a shutdown could shave off several tenths of a percentage point from U.S. GDP growth. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six years. Shutdowns in the U.S. are hardly unusual — there have been around 20 over the last 50 years. Every few years, Democrats and Republicans fail to find common ground. But this particular case is unique. I believe Trump is in a hurry. Why and where he's rushing to are questions worth considering thoroughly. In fact, I'd go a step further and ask: why does Trump so desperately want a Nobel Peace Prize — something he himself makes no secret of? Why does he want to present himself as the world's chief peacemaker, and why has he started a "global restructuring" of the international order? In my view, Trump wants to leave a legacy. The man in the White House realizes that this term may be his last. By the time he is expected to leave office, Trump will be 82 years old. Of course, with good health, you can run a country up to age 100, but Trump is a realist — even if it's not always obvious from his actions. He's criticized Biden for being too old, but in three years, Trump himself will be the same age Biden was when Trump made those comments. I believe Trump is racing against time because he realizes his own is running out. He's declared himself the greatest president in U.S. history and wants to stand alongside Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. That's why he's pushing for record-breaking growth in the U.S. economy at any cost. That's why he wants to end as many wars as possible. That's why he wants the Nobel Peace Prize, his own Taj Mahal, his own Pyramid of Khufu in the White House backyard, and self-funded statues in his golf clubs. If this isn't preparation for retirement with a sense of accomplishment, I don't know what is. Wave Pattern on EUR/USD: Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave layout remains entirely dependent on the news backdrop tied to Trump's decisions, as well as the internal and external politics of the new White House administration. The current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.25 area. At the moment, a corrective wave four is unfolding, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I'm only considering buying opportunities. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave Pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern on GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal structure is becoming harder to read. If wave 4 takes the form of a complex three-wave pattern, the structure will normalize, but even in that case, wave four would be far more complex and extended than wave 2. In my opinion, the best reference point right now is 1.3341, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two failed attempts to break this mark may indicate the market's readiness for new buying momentum. Key Principles of My Market Analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are harder to trade and often signal a shift.If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay on the sidelines.There is no 100% certainty in market direction, and it will never exist. Always use protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
Pressure on the Pound May Intensify at Any Moment
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
The second estimate of UK GDP confirmed 0.3% growth for Q2, but the composition of growth reveals a troubling trend—stagnant consumer spending was offset by increases in government expenditures and a widening current account deficit. Expectations of accelerated GDP growth in Q3 remain low, as the composite PMI index fell in September to a four-month low of 51 points. The manufacturing PMI hit a five-month low and remained firmly in contraction territory. Structural problems are building in the UK economy and are increasingly impacting its resilience. Public borrowing in August significantly exceeded forecasts, with the budget deficit rising to £18 billion—a five-year high. Over just five months of the fiscal year, the deficit reached £83.8 billion, the second-worst result since 1993. According to opposition shadow chancellor Mel Stride, "The Chancellor has lost control of the public finances." This is a fundamental issue, and there is no easy solution. The debt-to-GDP ratio is rising, and what's more crucial than the absolute ratio—now at 100%—is the difference between the effective interest rate on government debt and the nominal GDP growth rate. If the interest rate is higher, the government must run a primary surplus; otherwise, the debt grows rapidly. Currently, the effective interest rate on government debt in the UK, considering the average maturity of government bonds, is approaching 4%, while the nominal GDP growth rate is around 5% annually. However, if inflation falls toward the Bank of England's 2% target, nominal GDP will decline to about 3.0–3.5%. This would require a primary surplus of around 1.0–1.5% to maintain debt stability. Without it, debt could accelerate and eventually undermine overall financial stability. But there is no surplus—nor is one possible in the current environment. The UK's total budget deficit accounts for roughly 5% of GDP, with the primary deficit at around 2%. This means the revenue side needs a significant boost, which the government is attempting to achieve through fiscal reforms. In the meantime, however, the BoE must also lower interest rates to reduce the effective cost of borrowing. Hence, it's clear the Bank is being forced to maintain a dovish stance—even amid rising inflation. While the inflation surge is officially deemed "temporary," the markets are focused on more critical long-term issues than inflation itself. Under these circumstances, the pound is unlikely to remain strong. A strong currency undermines budget revenues and exacerbates the deficit. Speculative positioning on the pound has shifted from moderately bearish to neutral. The net short position declined by £0.4 billion over the reporting week, standing at a marginal -£166 million. The calculated fair value remains above the long-term average but has now turned downward. Last week, we assumed the pound would retain a bullish tone and, after a correction, would attempt to challenge resistance at 1.3787. However, this scenario now looks rather unlikely. The market has shifted into a sideways range. Support is seen at 1.3320/30; if this level fails to hold, bearish pressure could intensify. On the upside, the pound is capped near 1.3725, but chances of revisiting that level currently appear slim. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
XRP Gears Up For Breakout, But Bearish Divergence Clouds Outlook
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
XRP is showing signs of strength as it holds above key support levels, but the road to a breakout remains far from clear. While momentum off the trendline brings optimism, bearish divergences on higher timeframes are raising caution. Bearish Divergence Signals Market Caution CasiTrades, in a recent update, noted that XRP has managed to show some momentum after bouncing off the black trendline highlighted last week. The respect of this level is encouraging, but the market is not out of danger just yet. Its price still faces the critical $3 resistance, which remains the key hurdle to confirm the start of a new bullish trend. Until that level is broken, downside risks remain valid, with $2.79 (0.5 retracement) and $2.58 (0.618 retracement) identified as the main support zones. However, the move from the trendline appears to be forming a clean ABC corrective pattern rather than a 5-wave impulsive rally. Price action has already rejected the targets for the C-wave, and bearish divergence has been spotted on the 4-hour chart. This combination of factors does not align with the characteristics typically expected at the beginning of a true Wave 3 breakout. On the 1-hour RSI, XRP is now testing the lower support trendline, which CasiTrades is closely monitoring for confirmation of the next move. Looking ahead, the key level to watch is $2.69. Ideally, XRP avoids a new low beneath this zone, as that would force a reset of the wave count and shift the outlook. However, a retest of $2.58 remains valid and could still serve as a springboard for a larger bullish move. The overall picture suggests XRP is at a pivotal stage: breaking through resistance could ignite a long-awaited rally, but failure here risks invalidating the bullish structure entirely. XRP Supports Hold Firm As Momentum Builds CasiTrades emphasized that XRP’s support levels remain unchanged for now, and the market is still waiting for one of these key zones to spark the momentum required to break through resistance. Without a decisive push, the price risks lingering in its current range while testing lower levels. According to the analysis, a true Wave 3 breakout will only be confirmed when XRP cleanly clears the major resistance levels at $2.79, $3.00, and $3.25. These barriers must fall without hesitation or repeated rejection; otherwise, the price action would simply signal weakness and the likelihood of further downside testing. CasiTrades also advised keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s movements for broader market alignment, as well as on signs of bullish divergence forming during the next pullback. Once that momentum appears, XRP could finally have the setup to trigger the breakout that traders have been anticipating. -
Dogecoin has yet to deliver the kind of rally many expect in the current market cycle, but one analyst believes that is only a matter of time. Posting on the social platform X, the analyst with the handle @EtherNasyonaL described a parabolic run for Dogecoin as inevitable, pointing to recurring chart structures that preceded Dogecoin’s explosive rallies in 2017 and 2021. Dogecoin’s price movement in this cycle has largely been characterized by short-lived bursts of momentum followed by lengthy stretches of sideways consolidation or gradual retracements. Yet, there is a strong conviction among the most bullish Dogecoin proponents that the true rally for this cycle has not yet taken place. To them, Dogecoin is still in the build-up stage for a strong rally. Dogecoin Hasn’t Pumped Yet This Cycle One such example is a recent analysis that was posted on the social media platform X, where the analyst noted that Dogecoin hasn’t actually pumped up in the current cycle yet. Related Reading: Dogecoin Is Sitting On A Powder Keg: Here’s The Explosion That Will Send Price To $1.3 The chart posted by the analyst draws attention to a series of descending trendlines that Dogecoin has historically broken through and gone on exponential rallies shortly after. These periods often lasted years, with prices moving sideways and testing investor patience before then going on a rapid pump. Particularly, the analyst highlighted the 2017 breakout, where Dogecoin climbed out of a multi-year base, retested the moving average, and then rallied in the months after. As well as the 2021 rally, where the meme coin broke above the multi-year base and retested the moving average again before finally soaring to its current all-time high of $0.7316. The current setup shows Dogecoin in a similar position. Having broken above the resistance trendline months back, the Dogecoin price went back to retest the monthly moving average again, as shown by the red circle in the chart below. Now, it seems Dogecoin is trying to extend a rally, as evidenced by the price action in the past two months above $0.22. If history repeats, the present stage may be laying the groundwork for yet another multi-month price surge. The Current Cycle Looks Different Dogecoin’s current price cycle presents unique dynamics compared to past rallies. Unlike in 2017 or 2021, which were mostly based on meme coin hype, Dogecoin is now trading in a crypto market with higher liquidity and greater institutional investments. As such, the factors for any projected rally at this point will depend on the amount of institutional inflows that come into Dogecoin. Discussions around Spot Dogecoin ETFs have added a new dimension to how capital could flow into the asset. If such products gain regulatory approval, they could open up Dogecoin to institutional inflows, much like what has already been seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Nonetheless, Dogecoin’s on-chain data and trading metrics have begun to reflect behavior consistent with accumulation phases seen ahead of past breakouts. September, in particular, has been highlighted by multiple whale purchases. For example, DOGE whales added 2.08 billion DOGE to their holdings during the most recent price pullback below $0.23. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.231.
-
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 30 Today continue yesterday's geopolitical narratives with the US Government shutdown odds increasing (it seems that democrats wouldn't want to sign an extension) and Arab nations pushing for Hamas to accept the Gaza deal. About the first theme, a movement is happening with the Trump administration to remove a huge number of federal workers in an attempt to reduce costs and bureaucratic inefficiencies – There is a breach in the Government budget. The one issue is that it would be the people whose jobs are on the line that are required to prevent a shutdown. There are some intricacies to this theme but overall, markets should be more concerned about a delayed NFP release and Jobless claims, with the Labor Statistics office affected. This dragged the USD lower for a second straight day, however, FX movements are still far from clear and decisive – It will be very interesting to see how markets will interpret a delay of such quintessential releases. Not too good for the US reputation in any case. Some other, more positive developments are happening in the Middle East however, with a long-list of nations pressing for the signature of the peace proposal which would be a great advance in the region. This would give back some credibility to the US and potentially countering the negative effects of a shutdown. In any case, month-end flows came and they were pretty erratic – Between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, equities rallied but got rejected harshly right before the close. The S&P 500 attained the 6,700 but couldn't close above while the Nasdaq and Dow were more muted. Gold is finishing the month at its highs. What a rally in the precious metal +11.20% on the month, posting its best performance since August 2011 amid all the concerns for the US dollar and much else. Read More:Japanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the yearTaking a step back – key long-term market charts and levelsSilver (XAG/USD): Minor mean reversion decline in progress below US$47.17Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Typical of a volatile month close, markets were in disarray throughout the session. Look at how many times all assets went from positive to negative and vice versa. The performances to keep your eyes on are those of cryptocurrencies, posting a strong end-session reversal and of course Gold, that demarcated from other metals in today's dominant move. Next month will be a rollercoaster. Get ready! A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 30 – Source: OANDA Labs APAC currency performance was strong for this month-end, with the AUD on top from its hawkish pause, and a Japanese Yen that is starting to assemble some decent momentum in the past few session. These moves came at the cost of North American currencies: Geographic trend in FX again in play, so of course the Loonie got dragged by the US Dollar selloff. The extent of the moves has still been fairly contained but more is to come. A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session should be at least as busy as today. Don't forget the month-beginning flows which could add to the volatility. After the RBA fireworks (aka a huge hawkish pause at 3.60%), traders shift focus to the US labor market. The ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET) is front and center, with expectations of +50K jobs after +54K previously. The US calendar then ramps up at 10:00 ET with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (49 expected vs 48.7 prior), alongside employment and new orders indexes — all critical for gauging momentum in the industrial sector. From Europe, the morning is packed with many ECB speakers and the Eurozone CPI flash estimates (Sep) at 05:00 ET, where consensus looks for 2.2% YoY headline and 2.3% core, steady from last month. In Canada, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 09:30 ET and the BoC’s deliberation summary (13:30 ET) could move CAD, especially with the latest weakness in the Loonie. The Asia-Pacific session closes with Australia’s August trade balance (21:30 ET), expected to narrow sharply to 6.5B from 7.31B. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
-
Qatar’s Biggest Bank Joins JPMorgan’s Blockchain Payment Network
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Qatar National Bank (QNB) has started using JPMorgan’s Kinexys payments platform for US dollar corporate flows, bringing on-chain settlement to clients in the country. According to JPMorgan, the move went live in March 2025. QNB Adopts Kinexys For USD Flows Based on reports, the Doha lender will now be able to move US dollar payments around the clock, removing the usual business-hour cutoffs that delay transfers. The system operates 24/7 and can settle some transfers in as little as two minutes, a speed level that banks say shortens what used to take days. For JP Morgan, Kinexys (the unit that grew out of its earlier blockchain work) is being rolled out more widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The bank says eight of the region’s largest lenders are now live on the platform, with QNB and Saudi National Bank named among them. That wider uptake is being framed as an effort to give corporate treasuries faster, programmable payment options across corridors that previously suffered from timing and liquidity friction. What This Means For Clients Reports have disclosed that clients can expect fewer reconciliation headaches and a clearer view of funds as they move between accounts. Banks on Kinexys can create “programmable” payment flows — for example, payments that trigger only after a condition is met — which can shorten manual steps in trade and treasury operations. The platform also claims to preserve full payment amounts until they reach beneficiaries, reducing the chance of unexpected deductions. Momentum In The Region The QNB announcement follows similar moves by other institutions earlier this year that used Kinexys to expand anytime dollar clearing. In March 2025, for instance, India’s Axis Bank began offering 24/7 US dollar clearing with JPMorgan — a sign that banks in different markets are testing the same capability for corporate customers. While the speed gains are clear in promotional materials and press coverage, several operational details remain thin in public disclosures. Despite that, QNB’s step into Kinexys highlights a shift in regional banking, as Qatar’s biggest bank joins JPMorgan’s blockchain payment network. Featured image from Coin-Update, chart from TradingView -
Japanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
The Japanese yen is stepping into the FX spotlight, battling the Australian dollar for top weekly performer — with the AUD lifted by the RBA’s hawkish pause and firm domestic data. A rare sight in 2025, the yen is beginning to dominate broader currency performance, as fundamentals start to assemble in its favor. Political momentum is shifting, with LDP contenders Takaichi and Koizumi pulling ahead in Friday’s LDP party leadership race and hinting at a possible renegotiation of Japan’s trade deal with the US. Both stances, seen as less supportive of Abenomics and Ishibanomics’ era of ultra-low rates, fuel growing speculation that BoJ hikes may be closer than expected. Economic data has been mixed for Japan — stronger GDP, firm retail sales and low unemployment point, even as some sectors still show weakness — inflation momentum building also gives some reasons for the BoJ to move. Recent remarks from Noguchi and other officials underline that policy has entered a phase demanding “careful assessment,” as hawks and doves grow more divided. With US rate differentials projected to narrow on the back of FOMC cuts, and the BoJ inching toward normalization, the yen’s case for strength into year-end looks interesting. Let's explore USDJPY multi-timeframe charts (and a few other yen crosses) to see where the it stands. Read More: Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levelsUS JOLTS (Job Openings) beat expectations – Market reactionsSilver (XAG/USD): Minor mean reversion decline in progress below US$47.17USDJPY multi-timeframe analysisDaily Chart USDJPY Daily Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Combined with a sudden u-turn in the USD, the yen started to price a more hawkish BoJ policy going forward forming the most consistent selloff in the pair since May 2025. The three daily candles took prices from a failed test of the 150.00 handle (149.960 Monday highs) to two handles lower as we speak. The 50-Day Moving average is coming at the mid-range pivot and will be one of the last level for USDJPY bulls to show up. Daily momentum is turning negative, and when looking at these candles closing at their lows, it seems that this is the beginning of a move. Of course, the 146.00 to 150.00 range holds until it breaks, but fundamentals could be pointing to a breakout USDJPY 2H Chart and levels USDJPY 2H Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pair is evolving in an intraday steep downward channel, with prices now becoming oversold. With the tight price action, it would be surprising to see a sudden reversal higher (if it does, look for a breakout of the channel) – The overall bearish flows and daily outlook are strong so keep that in mind. Month-end flows could also be coming into play – Watch the reactions at a potential break of the 50-Day MA (147.75). Levels of interest for USDJPY trading: Resistance Levels Top of channel and 4H MA 50 – 148.350May range extremes and past week highs from 148.70 to 149.50150.00 psychological resistance150.90 July highsSupport Levels Immediate pivot, mid-range and 50-day MA 147.80 to 148.00 (testing)146.50 range support145.00 psychological support142.35 low of the May range, main supportOther yen crosses showing at key levelsGBPJPY now way below 200.00 GBPJPY 4H Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Check out our most recent GBPJPY analysis (still valid for the long-term analysis!) A gigantic weekly bearish divergence in CHFJPY CHFJPY Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. -
The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complicated. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend is canceled, but further complication of the wave pattern is quite possible. The upward section of the trend continues to form, and the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. Confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations for the Fed rate are growing. Market participants rate the results of Trump's first six to seven months in office very poorly, even though economic growth in Q2 was almost 4%. At this point, it can be assumed that impulse wave 5 continues to form, with targets potentially extending up to the 1.25 level. Within this wave, the internal structure is complex and ambiguous, but its larger scale does not raise major questions. Currently, three upward waves are visible, which suggests that the instrument is building wave 4 of 5, which is taking the form of a three-wave correction and may already be complete. A stronger decline in quotes would require adjustments to the current wave count. The EUR/USD rate barely changed on Tuesday, although in the first half of the day the market increased demand for the European currency. I cannot say this was related to economic data, even though there was plenty released today — and not all of it yet. From Germany alone, four important indicators were published. Retail sales fell by 0.2% month-on-month in August against higher forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. The number of unemployed in September rose by 14,000 compared with market expectations of +7,000. Inflation reached 2.4% in September. Traders could interpret this data in either direction. Two of the four reports came in weaker than expected, but the most important ones — unemployment and inflation — showed solid results. Unemployment did not rise, while inflation increased. What is good about higher inflation? It means the ECB will maintain a neutral stance in the near future and certainly will not be considering new monetary easing. Recall that the ECB has carried out eight rounds of rate cuts. Since inflation has been rising in recent months, another round is currently off the table. And if inflation keeps rising, monetary policy tightening is even possible, which would undoubtedly be very favorable for the euro. At the same time, the Fed is almost guaranteed to continue easing. General conclusions Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues building an upward section of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background, tied to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policies of the new White House administration. Targets for the current trend section may reach the 1.25 level. At the moment, a corrective wave 4 is forming, which may already be complete. The upward wave structure remains valid. Therefore, in the near term I consider only buying opportunities. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to 200.0% on Fibonacci. On a smaller scale, the entire upward section of the trend is visible. The wave structure is not the most standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of 3. However, this also happens. I remind you that it is best to isolate clear structures on charts rather than trying to account for every wave. Currently, the upward structure raises almost no questions. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often require adjustments.If there is no confidence in what is happening on the market, it is better to stay out.Absolute certainty about market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
Will October Crown Bitcoin Or Break It? Key Levels In Play
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Bitcoin enters the final day of the quarter in a tight coil of technicals and macro catalysts, with traders fixated on a handful of levels that will likely set the tone for October. Ostium Research’s week-ahead outlook frames the setup as a fading “window of weakness” into a potential Q4 tailwind, but only if the market navigates an event-heavy calendar without losing critical supports. As author Nik Patel puts it, “weekly momentum is still supportive of higher prices and I believe we are now emerging from the window of weakness I had marked out from Friday 20th Sept.” Key Bitcoin Levels Signal Explosive October Spot price action remains defined by last week’s rejection at the August open near $112,000 and a swift slide into the low-$108,000s before a rebound into Sunday’s close. On the weekly timeframe, momentum still tilts higher, but Patel warns that quarter-end, the October turn, and a dense run of data can stretch volatility. His base case is unambiguous: “I think any dip you get this week is one you want to look at as an opportunity for longs for the remainder of Q4,” he writes, adding that concerns about a cycle top in October are misplaced given “tailwinds into mid-Dec.” The mid-cycle risk marker sits around $99,000, with a longer-term invalidation tied to the 360-day moving average near $97,900. “Unless we lose $99k on a weekly close, nothing here looks mid-term bearish to me,” Patel states. On the daily chart, the market carved a higher low above roughly $107,000 after the $112,000 rejection, keeping the short-term structure constructive. Patel’s upside trigger is precise: “If we do now push higher off this low through the rest of this week to close back above the August open and trendline resistance up near $115.7k, I think it is very unlikely you see $107k–$108k retested in October.” Conversely, he stresses the downside waypoint in a volatility burst: “I think the lowest we see this week is the 200dMA at $104.6k on a major flush of the lows.” The tactical map he sketches gives bulls and bears something to do, sometimes within the same session. On the long side, he favors fading a stop-hunt under last week’s low or into the September open, “with invalidation on a close below the 360-day moving average, currently at $97.9k, below which we have not closed since March 2023.” If the market squeezes first, he outlines a switch-hitter approach: a sharper rally into the quarterly close that “takes out the $114k high into Oct 1st,” followed by a fade on bearish divergence aiming “for at least $110k, if not $108.5k into the weekend,” where he’s prepared to flip long again. Macro complicates an otherwise orderly technical picture. Patel expects the dollar to overextend before rolling over, a sequence that would support risk later in Q4: last week’s post-FOMC dollar bid is “short-lived,” with DXY “99 as the highest I am expecting,” and a larger move toward 93 in Q4 if momentum breaks down beneath the September open. On equities, he anticipates “a little choppier” October than crypto but still frames dips as opportunities into year-end. Positioning and derivatives context backstop the directional view. Patel highlights snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and Bitcoin versus altcoin open interest, then overlays expected one-week and one-month liquidation clusters to illustrate where forced flow could accelerate either path. The through-line remains that this week’s volatility is likely the prelude, not the postscript, to Q4. “The opportunity for those lows to be cleaned up should be over the next 5–7 days,” he notes. “If we run last week’s low and then reclaim on the lower timeframes, that could be the October low forming early.” In sum, Bitcoin’s near-term riddle is less about trend decay than the choreography of a shakeout. Above ~$112,000, buyers can press quickly toward the ~$115,700 pivot; beyond that, the all-time-highs narrative returns to center stage. Sweep the lows first and hold the $104,600–$107,000 shelf, and the market may be laying its October floor. Only a weekly close below $99,000 would meaningfully dent the Q4 bull case Patel maps out for readers this week. “You should not get bear-holed,” he writes. “As such, any dip between now and the weekend is where I am expecting the formation of an October low. At press time, BTC traded at $113,248. -
The Dogecoin price may be preparing for what an analyst calls a “face-melting rally,” as fresh bullish technical patterns indicate a potential breakout. A crypto analyst notes that DOGE is entering a critical stage, similar to historical setups that have preceded significant upward moves. If the pattern plays out as expected, it would bolster the market expert’s confidence in the meme coin’s outlook. Rare Setup To Ignite Dogecoin Price Rally Market analyst Mikybull Crypto has drawn attention to a key chart formation that traders rarely encounter, the Bump & Run Reversal Bottom (BARR). According to his technical analysis shared on X social media, Dogecoin has recently completed its “Lead-in” and “Bump” phases, and now sits at the critical “Throwback to Trendline” stage, which typically precedes a steep uphill bull run. The analyst noted that Thomas Bulkowski famously documented this textbook chart formation in his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (2005), with the pattern carrying a historical success rate between 64% and 68%. On the weekly chart, DOGE appears to have retested its former downtrend line, now flipped into support, after months of consolidation. If the structure plays out as outlined, Mikybull Crypto predicts that the next leg higher could see Dogecoin experiencing a “face-melting rally,” with its price potentially extending toward the $0.70 – $0.85 range. While the crypto expert’s forecast is ambitious, considering Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.23, it is still consistent with the way this rare pattern has historically unfolded after the “bump” phase, when momentum typically shifts toward buyers. According to Mikybull Crypto, traders should take note, as rallies emerging from this structure often accelerate quickly, leaving late entrants at a disadvantage. Golden Cross And Breakout Potential Point Toward Altseason In other news, crypto market expert Cas Abbe highlights short-term signals on Dogecoin’s daily chart, noting an impending Golden Cross formation. On his chart, the DOGE price action has been moving within an ascending channel and is now approaching the upper resistance band around $0.33. A breakout above this level could act as a major trigger for the broader altcoin market. Cas Abbe emphasizes that when Dogecoin begins to surge, it often marks the start of the altcoin season, during which capital flows away from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies, sparking widespread rallies across the sector. Due to this, the analyst notes that the $0.33 resistance remains a critical threshold. A decisive push above it could unleash rapid upward movement in DOGE toward the $0.37 area on the chart. Priced at $0.23 at the time of reporting, Dogecoin is sitting near key Moving Averages (MA), with momentum possibly building. The cryptocurrency has been experiencing its own fair share of price declines following the recent market downturn. CoinMarketCap’s data shows that DOGE has declined by over 4.3% in the last week, and risen by only 5.6% over the past months.
-
Chile fines Albemarle for lithium extraction violations
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Chile’s environmental regulator has fined Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) nearly $340,000 for violations at its lithium operations in the Atacama salt flat, escalating tensions between the world’s top lithium producer and Chilean authorities. The Superintendence of the Environment (SMA) said Albemarle exceeded its approved water extraction limits between October 2019 and September 2020, drawing an average of 452.3 litres per second, which is above what was authorized under its environmental permit. The regulator also found the North Carolina-based company failed to follow required safeguards under its Aquifer Alert Sector plan in early 2021, including not reporting the activation of a key indicator and not reducing brine extraction as mandated. Both charges, which were originally filed in 2022, were deemed serious, according to the sanctioning resolution issued on Tuesday. The fine is the latest flashpoint in Albemarle’s fraught relationship with Chilean regulators, who have long scrutinized water and brine use in the Salar de Atacama, a fragile desert ecosystem. Competitor SQM (NYSE: SQM) faces similar oversight as both companies expand production to meet soaring demand for lithium, a key component in electric vehicle batteries. -
USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on September 30th (U.S. Session)
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of 148.05 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. During the U.S. trading session, several important economic releases should be monitored. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, data on new jobs, and labor market changes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected. A speech by FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee is also scheduled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report will receive the most attention. At the same time, Goolsbee's remarks may spark additional interest, as his view will be one of the few shaping expectations for future monetary policy under conditions of limited information. It should be noted that volatility may rise in such a situation, so traders should remain highly attentive. As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.11 (green line on the chart) with a target at 148.43 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.43, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move. A rise in the pair can be expected only if U.S. data turns out very weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.90, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 148.11 and 148.43. Sell Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 147.90 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.50, where I will exit shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move. Downward pressure on the pair may persist if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.11, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 147.90 and 147.50 can then be expected. What's on the Chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
The Bitcoin Long: Bybit Traders Push BTC Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Above 24
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience after setting a fresh low near $108,000, staging a recovery that lifted the price back above the $113,000 level. Bulls now try to reclaim the $115,000 level, but momentum weakens as sellers push back. The recovery eased pressure in the short term, yet uncertainty builds while the market tracks major macro risks. The biggest concern comes from Washington, where the threat of a US government shutdown looms large. Traders expect volatility if policymakers fail to strike a deal, and risk assets like Bitcoin often react sharply to such headlines. As the deadline approaches, investors grow cautious and price action reflects that tension. Amid this backdrop, top analyst Maartunn flagged a notable Bitcoin Alert on Bybit. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio surged to unusually high levels, signaling that traders opened aggressive long positions. Such spikes often reveal strong bullish conviction, but they can also create instability if those positions unwind. Bybit Data Shows Surge in Long Positions Analyst Maartunn highlighted a striking development in Bitcoin’s market structure: the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Bybit has surged to 24.26, marking the highest level since September. This unusual spike signals that traders have opened an aggressive wave of long positions, a move often interpreted as a strong bullish signal. According to Maartunn, this type of imbalance reflects a market where buy orders significantly outweigh sell orders, pointing to a sudden shift in sentiment. When the ratio reaches such extremes, it suggests that a large amount of fresh capital is entering through the long side of the order book. This indicates confidence among traders that Bitcoin’s rebound above $113,000 may have further room to expand if momentum holds. However, the implications are not one-sided. A surge in long positioning can add fuel to rallies, but it can also increase vulnerability if price action turns against overleveraged traders. In such cases, the market risks a cascade of liquidations, which can accelerate downward moves just as quickly as they amplify upward momentum. The coming days will be critical as Bitcoin tests the $115,000 resistance zone. A decisive breakout could validate the bullish positioning and pave the way toward $117,500. On the other hand, failure to push higher may trigger profit-taking or liquidations, pulling the price back toward $110,000. Bitcoin Holds Key Support But Faces Strong Barrier Bitcoin trades near $113,100 after bouncing from lows around $109,200, showing resilience in the face of recent selling pressure. On the 3-day chart, the price sits between critical levels: support from the 50-period moving average (blue) and resistance at the $117,500 zone, highlighted in yellow. This range has defined Bitcoin’s behavior for several weeks, and the market continues to consolidate within it. The broader structure reveals a series of lower highs since the July peak near $125,000, suggesting waning momentum in the medium term. However, the long-term trend remains intact, with the 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages trending upward and providing a strong base around $100,000 and $80,000 respectively. A decisive break above $117,500 would invalidate the current lower-high structure and open the door for a retest of $120,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold above $110,000 could drag Bitcoin lower, exposing the $105,000 region and testing investor confidence. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView -
Vale expands Onça Puma capacity by 60% with new furnace
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Vale Base Metals, a subsidiary of Vale (NYSE: VALE), has commissioned a second furnace at its Onça Puma ferronickel complex in southeastern Pará, Brazil, increasing the asset’s nominal production capacity by 60%. The start-up of Furnace 2 adds 15,000 tonnes of nickel production capacity, lifting Onça Puma’s nameplate output to 40,000 tonnes per year. The company said the investment will allow higher production at lower costs, consolidating Onça Puma as Brazil’s largest ferronickel operation. CEO Shaun Usmar told Reuters that the expansion places Vale Base Metals in a “very strong position” once the market recovers, despite current low nickel prices driven by oversupply from Indonesia. He added that the operation should generate “reasonable cash flow” under the new configuration. Vale Base Metals reaffirmed its guidance of 160,000–175,000 tonnes of nickel production in 2025. By 2030, it expects output of 210,000–250,000 tonnes, supported by Onça Puma’s Furnace 2 and the ramp-up of underground mining at Voisey’s Bay in Canada. Construction of Furnace 2 took three years and cost about $480 million, below the originally budgeted $555 million. Vale Base Metals is 90% owned by Vale S.A. and 10% by Manara Minerals Investment Company. Vale shares rose 0.3% on Tuesday morning in New York, giving the company a market capitalization of $46.7 billion. -
GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on September 30th (U.S. Session)
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound The test of 1.3430 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. U.K. GDP data matched economists' forecasts. Expectations had been built on assumptions of stronger-than-expected growth in the British economy, which fueled speculative buying. However, the actual figures disappointed optimistic investors. The pound sterling, already under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar, showed a restrained reaction and lacked the momentum needed to continue its upward movement. During the U.S. trading session, several key releases should be noted. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, job openings data, and labor turnover statistics from the Census Bureau will be published. In addition, a speech by FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee is scheduled. Special attention will be on the Census Bureau's report, as it may turn out to be the last significant dataset on the U.S. labor market this week — but only if the federal government shuts down tomorrow. If the government continues operating normally, investors can expect several more key releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data. In the event of a shutdown, the Census Bureau's report will serve as the main reference point for gauging future market direction. As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3445 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.3480 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3480, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move. A strong rise in the pound is likely after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3419, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 1.3445 and 1.3480. Sell Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3419 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3396, where I will exit shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move. The pound could drop sharply in the second half of the day after strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3445, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3419 and 1.3396 can then be expected. What's on the Chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based only on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on September 30th (U.S. Session)
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of 1.1747 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test of 1.1747, when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowed scenario No. 2 for selling to play out, but a major decline of the pair did not follow. Despite the published data showing an increase in jobless claims in Germany, the euro continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The stability of the unemployment rate, which held at 6.3%, was the main supporting factor for the euro. The stability of Germany's labor market was interpreted by investors as a sign of broader economic resilience in the eurozone. Later today, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index will be released. This is a key barometer reflecting public sentiment and willingness to spend, directly impacting economic expansion. An improvement in the index could strengthen the dollar, while a decline may indicate reduced consumer spending and a potential economic slowdown. We also await the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which provides valuable insights into the U.S. labor market. A high number of job openings signals strong demand for labor and may foreshadow rising wages and inflation. In turn, higher turnover may point to instability in the labor market. As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2. Buy Signal Scenario No. 1: Buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1753 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1778. At 1.1778, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A euro rise today is likely after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1730, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1753 and 1.1778 can then be expected. Sell Signal Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches 1.1730 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1705, where I will exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move upward from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1753, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1730 and 1.1705 can then be expected. What's on the Chart: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.Thick green line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.Thick red line – projected level for setting Take Profit or fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you do trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
It is very easy to get lost in the day-to-day action of trading. As headlines arrive by the hundreds, market narratives are often obscured by short-term movements; a small mean-reverting day can seem like the end of the world as we know it, even when the broader picture remains unchanged. Hence, as a trader, it is always beneficial to review the higher timeframes to confirm the current trends for most assets, spot any potential hurdle or pattern emerging and to identify key levels that may come into play in the upcoming days and weeks. Today, we will analyze the Weekly charts for the S&P 500, Bitcoin, Oil, Dollar Index and Gold. Read More: US JOLTS (Job Openings) beat expectations – Market reactionsMarkets Today: Gold Retreats from Fresh Highs, China Manufacturing PMI at 6 Months Highs, FTSE Retests SupportSilver (XAG/USD): Minor mean reversion decline in progress below US$47.17S&P 500 Weekly Chart – Overbought RSI but no divergence, parabolic rise S&P 500 Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin Weekly – Triangle formation at the highs, momentum turning bull Bitcoin Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Oil Weekly – Monthly triangle formation showing indecision, but bear trend not out of sight US Oil Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dollar Index Weekly – Consolidation at the 3-year support but below still bearish momentum DXY Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold Weekly – Parabolic but extremely strong trend, key Fibonacci-extensions ahead? Gold Weekly Chart, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. -
Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE, TSX: AEM) says it has sold its entire 18% shareholding in copper-gold explorer Royal Road Minerals (TSXV: RYR) for proceeds of approximately C$5.51 million. The shares, totalling nearly 47.9 million, were sold at C$0.115 each. This represents a 6% discount over Royal Road’s market open price of C$0.16 on Monday, the day of Agnico’s disclosure. On Tuesday, it again traded at C$0.16 apiece, for a 3.1% intraday gain and a C$39.9 million ($28.6 million) market capitalization. Agnico has been a long-time shareholder of Royal Road, and in May 2019, the Canadian gold miner more than doubled its holding with a C$5.2 million equity investment. At the time, the shares were bought at $0.20 apiece. The share sale, says Agnico, was made to “monetize its investment” in Royal Road, resulting from the company’s periodic review of its growth portfolio. It follows recent comments by its CEO that the company is fully focused on organic growth. Royal Road currently has three development projects in Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Colombia, respectively. In a larger move to generate cash for its growth initiatives, Agnico sold earlier this month its entire stake in Orla Mining (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA) for nearly C$561 million. Rio2 steps in On the same day of Agnico’s divestment, Royal Road welcomed Rio2 (TSX: RIO) as its newest shareholder, following the purchase of approximately 39.8 million shares, or 15% of its outstanding stock. “Rio2 is a bold and dynamic company with an exceptional record of developing world-class gold projects, and their leadership team brings decades of entrepreneurial and executional excellence,” Tim Coughlin, president and CEO of Royal Road, stated in a press release. “We view Royal Road’s portfolio as geologically attractive and believe it provides us with interesting options for future diversification and growth,” said Alex Black, executive chairman of Rio2. Rio2’s main asset is the Fenix gold oxide project in Chile. With nearly 5 million oz. in measured and indicated resources, Fenix represents one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the Americas. Construction of the proposed mine is currently underway. Once built, it is expected to produce 81,900 oz. of gold annually over a 17-year life.
-
Namibia cautious about Angola’s De Beers co-ownership plan
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Namibia is weighing whether to join a potential consortium with Angola to buy into diamond giant De Beers, as concerns grow over weakening demand and the rise of lab-grown gems. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy Natangwe Ithete said the government will not rush into a decision. “The diamond industry is going down (…) so this is something we need to study very carefully, to determine whether it is worth pursuing or not,” he told local news outlet Mining and Energy. Angola submitted a bid last week for a minority stake in De Beers, but has yet to approach Namibia. Ithete stressed that the delay was not a sign of tension. “We have very good collaboration with Angola. Maybe the communication has not yet come through, or maybe it is still to come. But what I can say is that we have a very good relationship with Angola.” Botswana, which already owns 15% of De Beers, has said it wants a controlling stake. The diamond miner has also attracted interest from at least six other consortia, including Indian diamond houses, billionaire Anil Agarwal, and Qatari funds. Long-standing partnership Namibia and De Beers are long-standing partners through Namdeb Holdings, a 50-50 venture that operates land-based mines, and Debmarine Namibia, which runs marine mining. Namdeb produced 2.2 million carats of rough diamonds in 2024, accounting for 9% of De Beers’ total output. Their partnership includes a sales agreement and a deal signed in 2021 that extends operations to 2042. Anglo American (LON: AAL), which owns 85% of De Beers, put the business up for sale in May 2024 after fending off a £39 billion ($49 billion) takeover bid from BHP. The miner has since been restructuring, shedding non-core assets, and announced early this month it was pursuing a merger with Canada’s Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B; NYSE: TECK) to build a copper powerhouse. Anglo American values De Beers at about $4.9 billion, though recent $3.5 billion impairments and industry headwinds could push offers lower. -
Early Bitcoin Investor Reveals Biggest Regret After Years In The Market
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
As he reflects on the choices he made in the past and how they have shaped his understanding of Bitcoin today, an early Bitcoin investor, Jeff Ross, is opening up about his journey in the crypto market and sharing a lesson he says still stays with him. After years of watching Bitcoin grow and evolve, he says one decision still stands out as his biggest mistake. Jeff Ross Admits His Biggest Bitcoin Mistake Jeff Ross says his biggest mistake was selling all his Bitcoin years ago. Instead of holding Bitcoin, he decided to move it into a substantial and diversified basket of altcoins. He believed coins like Litecoin would rise and even called it the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold.” At that time, Ross thought spreading his bets was the wise choice. Looking back now, that choice clearly proves to be the wrong move. He explains that giving up his Bitcoin for other coins has remained his biggest regret after years in the market. The memory of this mistake remains alive, and today Ross speaks openly about it so that others do not fall into the same trap. Ross says it was not until 2020 that he fully understood what Bitcoin meant. Before then, he had seen the cryptocurrency only as a means to trade and make quick gains. Lessons Ross Shares With Bitcoiners Today Now, Jeff Ross uses his experience to send a message to other Bitcoiners. At first glance, fiat looks safe because it is widely accepted and backed by governments. However, Ross warns that the same money is quietly losing value every year due to inflation. What feels stable on the surface is, in reality, the “ultimate wealth-extracting unit,” a system that slowly drains people’s savings without them even noticing. According to Ross, Bitcoin fights this by protecting purchasing power and moving it away from fiat money. Moving value into this network, in his view, is the real strength of Bitcoin and the reason it stands apart from the countless digital tokens that come and go. Unlike fiat money, which loses purchasing power over time, Bitcoin removes value from government-backed currency and locks it into a transparent system where it remains safe and immutable. For Ross, Bitcoin could represent freedom, fairness, and the separation of money from state control. His personal story adds weight to these ideas and serves as a clear warning for other investors. By sharing how easily he once got caught up in the excitement of altcoins, Ross illustrates the temptation of short-term gains, as well as the often costly consequences that follow over time. The lesson he draws is that holding Bitcoin could be far more rewarding than chasing quick wins in today’s volatile markets. -
What Is Crypto Passporting? Adrienne Harris Advocates For US-UK Passporting Scheme
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
A new facet to international financial regulation is crypto passporting. Similar to how European Union (EU) financial services companies can operate across member states under a single license, a US-UK passporting scheme. Crypto companies face significant barriers while expanding internationally. For example – a New York based company trying to expand in London will be impacted by costs and delays. Crypto passporting would allow crypto companies regulated in one country to operate in the other without necessarily undergoing the entire authorization processes. According to Simon Jennings, executive director of the UK Cryptoasset Business Council trade body, “Co-ordinated regulation, including the potential for digital asset passporting, would enhance investor protection, cut compliance costs and make cross-border markets far more interoperable.” EXPLORE: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now US-UK Launch Transatlantic Task Force The US and UK governments have announced a strategic partnership by creating a formal joint task force designed to reduce regulatory friction for firms seeking to access capital across markets. Importantly, the joint task force will coordinate the two countries’ approaches towards cryptocurrency oversight. The task force was formed during Trump’s visit out of high-level talks between UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. On 22 September 2025, the US Department of the Treasury (DoT) released a statement saying, “The purpose of the Taskforce is to explore options for short-to-medium term collaboration on digital assets while legislation and regulatory regimes are still developing, as well as options for long-term collaboration and additional opportunities for wholesale digital markets innovation.” EXPLORE: After Trump’s Visit Britain Set To Reduce Crypto Red Tape: US-UK Launch Transatlantic Task Force Key Takeaways New York’s Department of Financial Services (DFS) holds extraordinary influence over the global cryptocurrency landscape. Adrienne Harris argues that allowing established financial institutions to engage with cryptocurrency markets could actually raise industry standards. The post What Is Crypto Passporting? Adrienne Harris Advocates For US-UK Passporting Scheme appeared first on 99Bitcoins.