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AUD/USD The Australian dollar fell back below 0.6668 yesterday. Today, the decline continues quite actively. Accordingly, the breakout with consolidation on the 16th turned out to be false, which signals the prospect of medium-term downside movement. Confirmation of this scenario will come if the price moves under the MACD line, located near the August 14 high at 0.6571. This would open the target at 0.6450. On the four-hour chart, the price has broken below the MACD support line. The Marlin oscillator is declining steeply. We expect the situation to develop further along the main bearish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading within an uptrend channel formed on the H4 chart. Yesterday, after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around $114,800, it resumed its bullish cycle and is now trading around $118,000. BTC is likely to continue rising in the coming days. It could reach the 6/8 Murray at $118,750 and possibly even the top of the uptrend channel around $119,400. A good area to look for short opportunities in Bitcoin could be the 6/8 Murray at $118,750 or the top of the uptrend channel. On the other hand, if Bitcoin undergoes a technical correction and consolidates above $116,000, we could expect it to extend its rise. This would be seen as a buying opportunity, with a target at $118,750. The key level to watch for Bitcoin is the 5/8 Murray zone around $115,625. Above this zone, the Bitcoin price is expected to continue rising. But below this zone, we could expect a trend reversal or a strong technical correction, with a target at $109,375. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BNB price is gaining pace above the $980 zone. The price is now showing positive signs and might aim for a move above the $1,000 handle in the near term. BNB price started a fresh increase above the $950 and $975 levels. The price is now trading above $980 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $960 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair (data source from Binance). The pair must stay above the $960 level to start another increase in the near term. BNB Price Hits New ATH BNB price formed a base above the $900 level and started a fresh increase, beating Ethereum and Bitcoin. There was a steady move above the $940 and $950 levels. The bulls even cleared the $980 resistance zone. A new all-time high was formed at $995 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline and the price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $948 swing low to the $995 high. The price is now trading above $980 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $960 on the hourly chart of the BNB/USD pair. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $995 level. The next resistance sits near the $1,000 level. A clear move above the $1,000 zone could send the price higher. In the stated case, BNB price could test $1,050. A close above the $1,050 resistance might set the pace for a larger move toward the $1,120 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $1,150 zone in the near term. Downside Correction? If BNB fails to clear the $995 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $980 level. The next major support is near the $970 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $948 swing low to the $995 high. The main support sits at $960. If there is a downside break below the $960 support, the price could drop toward the $940 support. Any more losses could initiate a larger decline toward the $920 level. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for BNB/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BNB/USD is currently above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $970 and $960. Major Resistance Levels – $995 and $1,000.

ThumzUp Media, a company with ties to Donald Trump Jr., has just made a major move into crypto. The company bought 7.5 million Dogecoin, making it clear that this isn’t just a casual dabble. It’s part of a growing plan to build up a digital asset treasury, and for whatever reason, Dogecoin is now at the center of it. From Likes and Shares to Memecoins This is a company that started off in the ad tech space, helping brands get more attention through social media engagement. Now, it’s buying meme coins. That shift alone tells you something about where their focus is headed. Holding millions of DOGE suggests they’re thinking long-term, not just trying to ride a short-term wave. This is a real chunk of their balance sheet being set aside for crypto. Why Dogecoin and Not Something Else? Dogecoin has always been hard to explain. It started as a joke, but somehow never went away. It’s cheap, it’s fast, and it has a loyal online army that refuses to let it die. Choosing Dogecoin over something more conventional like Bitcoin or Ethereum might seem strange, but it fits a certain kind of logic. It grabs headlines. It has personality. And it’s the kind of coin that sparks conversation, which might be exactly what ThumzUp is going for. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 This Isn’t a Safe Bet Dogecoin is fun, but it’s not stable. Its price can jump or drop based on a single tweet or a random meme. By putting this much into DOGE, ThumzUp is taking on real risk. If the coin tanks, they could lose a big chunk of value fast. But if it takes off again like it has in the past, they stand to make serious gains. Either way, this isn’t a move you make unless you’re willing to deal with the ups and downs. dogecoinPriceMarket CapDOGE$42.19B24h7d1y One-Time Flex or Long-Term Plan? Right now, it’s not totally clear whether this is the beginning of a bigger strategy or just a single headline-grabbing move. ThumzUp hasn’t said whether more crypto purchases are coming, but this buy is big enough that it doesn’t feel like a stunt. They might go deeper into DOGE, or they could start adding other coins into the mix. Or they might just sit on this and see what happens. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in September2025 Could This Influence Other Companies? It might. Most companies are still watching the crypto space from a safe distance. But when a company with public attention suddenly loads up on Dogecoin, people notice. If it pays off, others might start thinking twice about sitting on the sidelines. If it doesn’t, it becomes another cautionary tale. Either way, it adds to the growing trend of businesses experimenting with crypto in public ways. All Eyes on What Comes Next Now it’s a waiting game. Will ThumzUp start buying more? Will they treat crypto as a core part of their strategy or just a flashy asset on the books? Most of all, how will they react when Dogecoin moves, whether up or down? One thing’s for sure, this decision has put them firmly on the radar. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways ThumzUp Media, a company linked to Donald Trump Jr., has purchased 7.5 million Dogecoin as part of a larger crypto treasury strategy. The company started in ad tech but is now putting real money into DOGE, signaling a possible shift in long-term direction. Dogecoin’s mix of speed, low cost, and cultural presence makes it a high-risk, high-reward choice for a corporate treasury asset. It’s unclear if this is a one-off move or the start of a broader plan, but the size of the purchase suggests serious intent. The move could influence other companies watching the crypto space, depending on whether ThumzUp’s bet pays off or backfires. The post Trump Jr. Linked ThumzUp Media Adds 7.5 Million DOGE to Treasury appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The SEC just made a move that could speed up how crypto ETFs get approved in the United States. Until now, getting a spot crypto ETF listed was a long process, often dragging on for months. But with the new changes, exchanges like Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe can follow a standard rulebook instead of starting from scratch every time. In some cases, that could cut the wait from eight months down to about two and a half. What’s Actually Changing Before this update, each crypto ETF had to go through a double approval process. The exchange had to get clearance, and the fund manager had to go through their own review. That meant lots of back and forth, uncertainty, and long delays. Now, if a fund checks all the right boxes, it can move through more quickly using preset criteria. That’s a big deal for companies trying to bring ETFs tied to other cryptocurrencies, not just Bitcoin or Ethereum. Who Benefits First Solana and XRP are the two tokens most likely to get through this new system early. There are already ETF filings based on both, and with these rules now active, they might not have to wait as long. Other tokens could follow, as long as they meet the same requirements. It’s a big shift from how things worked even just a few months ago, when every new ETF was treated like a one-off situation. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 What the SEC Will Be Looking For Even with the faster process, there are still rules to follow. The ETF must track a token that is actively traded and has enough volume to avoid manipulation. The exchange needs proper monitoring in place to keep an eye on suspicious activity. And the fund itself has to meet the same standards as any other financial product when it comes to reporting and operations. It’s not a free-for-all, but the road ahead is now a lot clearer. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.32T24h7d1y Why This Matters for the Market This could be a turning point. Speeding up approvals means more ETF options on the table, which makes crypto more accessible to regular investors who prefer to stay inside traditional finance platforms. It also opens the door for more creative fund structures and potentially broader adoption. Still, there’s always the risk that a faster process could let weaker products slip through. So while the opportunity is real, so are the stakes. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 What’s Happening Right Now The rule change is already live, and exchanges are lining up to take advantage of it. There’s been no official word on which application will be first through the door, but several are already waiting in line. If the process goes smoothly, we could see new crypto ETFs hit the market much sooner than expected. What Comes Next Keep an eye on how the first batch of ETFs performs under the new system. Watch to see if the SEC adds more clarity around what qualifies. And pay attention to how investors respond. If demand is strong and the rollout goes well, this new process could become the norm. If things stumble early, regulators may take a closer look. Either way, the timeline for bringing new crypto ETFs to market just got a lot shorter. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways The SEC has approved a rule change that speeds up the approval process for spot crypto ETFs on exchanges like Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe. The new system allows ETFs to follow preset listing standards, cutting approval time from around eight months to about two and a half. Tokens like Solana and XRP could benefit first, as they already have ETF filings that now face fewer delays. Faster approvals still come with strict conditions, including market surveillance, liquidity requirements, and operational standards. This change could help bring crypto ETFs to more investors through traditional platforms, while also raising pressure to maintain product quality. The post SEC Updates Listing Standards to Speed Up Crypto ETF Approvals appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XRP price started a fresh increase above the $3.020 resistance. The price is now showing positive signs and might gain pace if it clears the $3.120 zone. XRP price is moving higher from the $2.980 support zone. The price is now trading above $3.020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a rising channel with resistance at $3.070 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if the price clears the $3.120 zone. XRP Price Attempts Fresh Increase XRP price extended losses below $3.00 before the bulls appeared, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price tested the $2.980 zone and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above the $3.00 and $3.020 levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.185 swing high to the $2.957 low. Besides, there was a break above a rising channel with resistance at $3.070 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $3.080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If the bulls protect the $3.050 support, the price could attempt another increase. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $3.10 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.185 swing high to the $2.957 low. The first major resistance is near the $3.120 level. A clear move above the $3.120 resistance might send the price toward the $3.20 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.2320 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.250. Another Decline? If XRP fails to clear the $3.120 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $3.070 level. The next major support is near the $3.040 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $3.040 level, the price might continue to decline toward $3.00. The next major support sits near the $2.980 zone, below which the price could gain bearish momentum. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $3.040 and $3.00. Major Resistance Levels – $3.120 and $3.20.

According to on-chain alerts, FalconX pulled 413,075 SOL from major exchanges over an eight-hour stretch, valued at about $98.4 million. The tokens were moved off Binance, OKX, Coinbase and Bybit into wallets linked to the brokerage, reports have disclosed. FalconX Withdrawals Raise Eyebrows Blockchain trackers flagged the transfers as significant because they happened across multiple venues in a short window. FalconX is the largest digital asset prime brokerage, the company’s website shows. Lookonchain and other analytics firms have flagged the pattern as consistent with institutional activity, where assets are moved into custody or cold storage rather than kept on exchange accounts ready for sale. Large withdrawals cut the pool of SOL sitting on exchanges. That matters because less exchange supply can tighten available coins for buyers, especially if demand holds or rises. Traders watch that metric closely. It is one of several data points that can change short-term odds for price swings. Analysts Note Caution On Attribution Based on reports, the wallets involved have been attributed to FalconX, a known institutional broker, but such labels are built from analysis of patterns, prior transfers, and public filings. What This Could Mean For Solana’s Price A withdrawal of roughly $98.4 million worth of SOL can add upward pressure if buyers keep coming. Less supply on exchanges tends to reduce immediate sell liquidity. If demand spikes, prices can react sharply. That said, price depends on many things: order book depth, macro drivers, derivatives flows and how other large holders behave. Market analysts tend to associate large exchange outflows with probable accumulation phases. For Solana, a move of this magnitude illustrates how institutional custody activity can affect views on short-term availability and supply. The scale and timing of FalconX’s activity guarantee that traders will be looking closely at order books over the next few days. Historical evidence also indicates that large withdrawals of tokens occasionally lead to heightened market activity. If transfers of this nature keep going ahead, Solana’s on-exchange liquidity profile may get tighter still, setting the stage for price to respond more rapidly to trading volume. In the meantime, attention is centered on how market demand compares to this diminished on-exchange supply. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

EUR/USD Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the rate was cut by the expected 0.25%. However, neither FOMC members nor Jerome Powell himself showed a hawkish stance, which is why the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by only 0.38% — a modest reaction for such an event. The dot plot indicated the intention to cut rates two more times before year-end. In his remarks, Powell even slightly downplayed the inflationary risks stemming from Trump's tariffs, while the Fed raised its PCE forecast for next year from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Indirectly, these steps smooth out the tension in the confrontation with Trump. We allow for a scenario in which inflation picks up again before year-end, leading the Fed to refrain from cutting rates in December. Is there market support for such a scenario? Yes, and it lies in the bond market's lack of reaction to the rate cut. Yields on most U.S. Treasuries actually rose. If the rise in yields turns into a sustained trend, the Fed's rhetoric could quickly become more hawkish. On September 26, PCE price data for August will be released, which may show an increase. Yesterday's trading volume was the largest in September, though still significantly lower than on August 12 (CPI release), August 1 (Nonfarm Payrolls), and July 30 (previous Fed meeting). It seems market participants are not paying much attention to the dot plot this time. On the daily chart, the price pierced the target range at the upper boundary of the price channel with its upper shadow. The Marlin oscillator slightly declined. The market now needs fresh data to reassess the current balance. A new consolidation range may form at 1.1724–1.1919, with the lower boundary set by the MACD line. We, along with the market, will wait a few days for the situation to clarify. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is close to shifting into negative territory. Overall, the euro is now likely to focus on finding support. The MACD lines of different scales around 1.1724/62 appear to be an appropriate area for this. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above $4,520. ETH is now showing positive signs and might attempt to clear the $4,680 resistance. Ethereum is now recovering higher above the $4,550 zone. The price is trading above $4,580 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $4,550 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,640 and $4,700. Ethereum Price Eyes Steady Increase Ethereum price extended losses below $4,550 before the bulls appeared, like Bitcoin. ETH price tested the $4,415 zone and recently started a recovery wave. The price climbed above the $4,500 and $4,520 resistance levels. The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,765 swing high to the $4,416 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $4,550 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading above $4,580 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,635 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,765 swing high to the $4,416 low. The next key resistance is near the $4,680 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,720 level. A clear move above the $4,720 resistance might send the price toward the $4,750 resistance. An upside break above the $4,750 hurdle might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,850 resistance zone or even $4,880 in the near term. Another Drop In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,680 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,580 level. The first major support sits near the $4,535 zone. A clear move below the $4,535 support might push the price toward the $4,500 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,420 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,350. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,535 Major Resistance Level – $4,680

Prominent analyst Cheeky Crypto (203,000 followers on YouTube) set out to verify a fast-spreading claim that XRP’s circulating supply could “vanish overnight,” and his conclusion is more nuanced than the headline suggests: nothing in the ledger disappears, but the amount of XRP that is truly liquid could be far smaller than most dashboards imply—small enough, in his view, to set the stage for an abrupt liquidity squeeze if demand spikes. XRP Supply Shock? The video opens with the host acknowledging his own skepticism—“I woke up to a rumor that XRP supply could vanish overnight. Sounds crazy, right?”—before committing to test the thesis rather than dismiss it. He frames the exercise as an attempt to reconcile a long-standing critique (“XRP’s supply is too large for high prices”) with a rival view taking hold among prominent community voices: that much of the supply counted as “circulating” is effectively unavailable to trade. His first step is a straightforward data check. Pulling public figures, he finds CoinMarketCap showing roughly 59.6 billion XRP as circulating, while XRPScan reports about 64.7 billion. The divergence prompts what becomes the video’s key methodological point: different sources count “circulating” differently. As he explains it, the higher on-ledger number likely includes balances that aggregators exclude or treat as restricted, most notably Ripple’s programmatic escrow. He highlights that Ripple still “holds a chunk of XRP in escrow, about 35.3 billion XRP locked up across multiple wallets, with a nominal schedule of up to 1 billion released per month and unused portions commonly re-escrowed. Those coins exist and are accounted for on-ledger, but “they aren’t actually sitting on exchanges” and are not immediately available to buyers. In his words, “for all intents and purposes, that escrow stash is effectively off of the market.” From there, the analysis moves from headline “circulating supply” to the subtler concept of effective float. Beyond escrow, he argues that large strategic holders—banks, fintechs, or other whales—may sit on material balances without supplying order books. When you strip out escrow and these non-selling stashes, he says, “the effective circulating supply… is actually way smaller than the 59 or even 64 billion figure.” He cites community estimates in the “20 or 30 billion” range for what might be truly liquid at any given moment, while emphasizing that nobody has a precise number. That effective-float framing underpins the crux of his thesis: a potential supply shock if demand accelerates faster than fresh sell-side supply appears. “Price is a dance between supply and demand,” he says; if institutional or sovereign-scale users suddenly need XRP and “the market finds that there isn’t enough XRP readily available,” order books could thin out and prices could “shoot on up, sometimes violently.” His phrase “circulating supply could collapse overnight” is presented not as a claim that tokens are destroyed or removed from the ledger, but as a market-structure scenario in which available inventory to sell dries up quickly because holders won’t part with it. How Could The XRP Supply Shock Happen? On the demand side, he anchors the hypothetical to tokenization. He points to the “very early stages of something huge in finance”—on-chain tokenization of debt, stablecoins, CBDCs and even gold—and argues the XRP Ledger aims to be “the settlement layer” for those assets.He references Ripple CTO David Schwartz’s earlier comments about an XRPL pivot toward tokenized assets and notes that an institutional research shop (Bitwise) has framed XRP as a way to play the tokenization theme. In his construction, if “trillions of dollars in value” begin settling across XRPL rails, working inventories of XRP for bridging, liquidity and settlement could rise sharply, tightening effective float. To illustrate, he offers two analogies. First, the “concert tickets” model: you think there are 100,000 tickets (100B supply), but 50,000 are held by the promoter (escrow) and 30,000 by corporate buyers (whales), leaving only 20,000 for the public; if a million people want in, prices explode. Second, a comparison to Bitcoin’s halving: while XRP has no programmatic halving, he proposes that a sudden adoption wave could function like a de facto halving of available supply—“XRP’s version of a halving could actually be the adoption event.” He also updates the narrative context that long dogged XRP. Once derided for “too much supply,” he argues the script has “totally flipped.” He cites the current cycle’s optics—“XRP is sitting above $3 with a market cap north of around $180 billion”—as evidence that raw supply counts did not cap price as tightly as critics claimed, and as a backdrop for why a scarcity narrative is gaining traction. Still, he declines to publish targets or timelines, repeatedly stressing uncertainty and risk. “I’m not a financial adviser… cryptocurrencies are highly volatile,” he reminds viewers, adding that tokenization could take off “on some other platform,” unfold more slowly than enthusiasts expect, or fail to get to “sudden shock” scale. The verdict he offers is deliberately bound. The theory that “XRP supply could vanish overnight” is imprecise on its face; the ledger will not erase coins. But after examining dashboard methodologies, escrow mechanics and the behavior of large holders, he concludes that the effective float could be meaningfully smaller than headline supply figures, and that a fast-developing tokenization use case could, under the right conditions, stress that float. “Overnight is a dramatic way to put it,” he concedes. “The change could actually be very sudden when it comes.” At press time, XRP traded at $3.0198.

Bitcoin price is moving higher above $116,500. BTC is now facing hurdles and might gain bullish momentum if it clears the $117,250 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $116,200 zone. The price is trading below $116,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $115,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $117,250 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Key Hurdle Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $115,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $116,000 and $116,200 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push the price above $117,000. The price traded as high as $117,291 and recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the $116,800 level. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $114,157 swing low to the $117,291 high. However, the bulls were active near $115,000 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the $114,157 swing low to the $117,291 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $116,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $115,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $116,950 level. The first key resistance is near the $117,250 level. The next resistance could be $117,800. A close above the $117,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $118,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $119,250. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $117,250 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $116,200 level. The first major support is near the $115,500 level or the trend line. The next support is now near the $115,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $114,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $112,500, below which BTC might decline heavily. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $115,500, followed by $115,000. Major Resistance Levels – $116,950 and $117,250.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair traded relatively calmly until the evening. The evening events and subsequent movements will be analyzed later today, once the dust settles and traders digest all the information. For the pound, it may take another day, as the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for today, which could also spark major market volatility. As a result, the pair may swing both ways for two consecutive days, movements that are unlikely to be considered systematic. In the EUR/USD review, we discussed the "three doves" within the Fed—Mirran, Bowman, and Waller. These three are ready to vote at FOMC meetings exactly as Trump demands, and while the Fed is not supposed to be a "rubber stamp," it risks becoming one over time. Another problem lies with Trump's tariffs. Two U.S. courts have already recognized them as illegal, but neither dared overturn them, instead passing responsibility to the Supreme Court as the final authority. The Court consists of nine justices, six of whom were appointed either by Trump or other Republican presidents. Thus, the U.S. Supreme Court could well become Trump's second "lapdog" after the Fed. In the coming months, we'll see whether this is the case. First, it must become clear whether Trump will continue trying to remove dissenting Fed officials. Second, in early November, the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs will be revealed. If both scenarios go Trump's way, the dollar could plunge at breakneck speed. Investors in such a case would realize that democracy in the U.S. no longer exists and that laws no longer work. What use are laws if even the Supreme Court rules "at the White House's call"? How much trust can the dollar hold if the Fed dances to the tune of a president who spends more time on golf courses than in the Oval Office? How much credibility can a president have if his main goal seems to be winning the Nobel Prize while breaking laws in the process? Therefore, the rest of 2025 may turn out even worse for the dollar than its first half. On the daily chart, the uptrend will likely continue, as there are no valid reasons to think otherwise. In the short term, the dollar may rely only on technical corrections or support from isolated reports/events. The U.K. economy has been underwhelming for over a decade, and its macroeconomic data can indeed provoke GBP weakness. However, overall, the pound continues to rise simply because the dollar keeps falling. Average volatility of GBP/USD over the past five trading days is 70 pips, which is considered "average." On Thursday, September 18, we therefore expect the pair to move within the range defined by 1.3597 and 1.3737. The linear regression channel's upper band points upward, confirming a clear uptrend. The CCI indicator once again entered oversold territory, warning of trend resumption. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.3611 S2 – 1.3550 S3 – 1.3489 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.3672 R2 – 1.3733 R3 – 1.3794 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is inclined to continue its uptrend. In the medium term, Trump's policies are likely to keep pressuring the dollar, so no sustainable growth in the U.S. currency is expected. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3733 and 1.3784 remain more relevant as long as the price holds above the moving average. If the price moves below the moving average, small shorts can be considered purely on technical grounds. From time to time, the dollar does show corrections, but trend-based strengthening requires clear signs of an end to the global trade war or other major positive factors. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair traded more calmly than on Tuesday, when euro quotes were rising throughout the day in geometric progression. Of course, this applies only to the time before the Fed's meeting results and Powell's press conference. As usual, we won't review either the meeting outcome or the post-event market movements here. We continue to believe that such important events require time for thorough analysis. Moreover, markets often trade impulsively and emotionally on those days, so technical conclusions cannot be drawn from the immediate moves. Quite often, the Fed's meeting swings don't fit into the overall technical picture at all, and are better ignored afterwards. Sometimes the pair flies in one direction only to return to its starting point the very next day. We will make conclusions once the dust settles. For now, we can say that the "dovish wing" inside the Fed is expanding, albeit very slowly. Currently, only three members are ready to vote for a rate cut at every meeting—Stephen Mirran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman. Notably, all three were appointed by Donald Trump. Here, one can see Trump's influence at play. The Fed may not be a "fly-by-night operation," but in practice, it could start looking like one. Three doves are too few. Next year, there will definitely be four, once Jerome Powell leaves his post. That's still not enough for the 3% rate cut Trump wants. Therefore, I am almost certain that Trump will continue his attacks on the "hawks" within the FOMC, trying either to dismiss them or to pressure them. Everyone understands that Mirran, Waller, and Bowman are not voting for drastic cuts because they believe it is right or consistent with the Fed's dual mandate, but because Trump demands it. The Fed risks losing not only its independence, but also its own "thinking." Trump would do the thinking, and the Fed would merely broadcast his decisions. Thus, the outlook for the Fed and the dollar is even worse than many currently assume. At first, this trio may simply be ignored by the rest of the committee—perhaps even seated together so as not to disturb others. But in the longer term, everything will depend on how many more officials Trump manages to sway. We know Trump's methods well. Hawks could be branded "fraudsters" for trivial reasons or subjected to investigations that dig up skeletons in their closets. For now, however, the Fed remains a politically independent body. Average volatility of EUR/USD over the past five trading days as of September 18 is 70 pips, which is "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1784 and 1.1924 on Thursday. The linear regression channel's upper band points upward, indicating a continued uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory three times, warning of trend resumption, and a bullish divergence has also been formed. Currently, the indicator is in overbought territory, but in an uptrend, this only signals a correction. Nearest Support Levels:S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1780 S3 – 1.1719 Nearest Resistance Levels:R1 – 1.1902 R2 – 1.1963 R3 – 1.2024 Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD may resume its uptrend. The U.S. dollar remains under strong pressure from Donald Trump's policies, and he clearly has no intention of "stopping here." The dollar rose as much as it could (not for long), but now appears poised for another extended decline. If the price settles below the moving average, small shorts can be considered toward 1.1719 as part of a corrective move. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1902 and 1.1963 in continuation of the trend. Chart Elements Explained:Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement until late in the evening. The pound sterling continues to rise steadily and confidently, with all necessary factors supporting it. U.K. data published this week did not spoil the picture for the pound. The British economy is far from being in its best shape, but that's not the main factor for traders right now. At most, domestic reports could have triggered a minor local pullback, while the pound is capable of growing even without supportive data from the U.K. Yesterday, inflation was released and came exactly in line with forecasts. In August, headline CPI remained unchanged at 3.8%. Core inflation slowed slightly to 3.6%. Neither of these values suggests a more dovish tilt at today's Bank of England meeting. The British central bank will almost certainly leave the key rate unchanged, with the only intrigue being the voting split in the Monetary Policy Committee. The market expects no more than two members to support a rate cut under current conditions. If there are three or more, the pound could see a short-term drop. On the 5-minute TF, not a single trading signal was formed yesterday, leaving traders with no reason to enter the market—especially ahead of the Fed meeting results. COT Report COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders) cross frequently and generally stay near zero. Right now, they're almost at the same level, which signals roughly equal amounts of long and short positions. The dollar is still falling due to Trump's policies, so market maker demand for the pound is not so important right now. The trade war will continue, one way or another, for a long time. The Fed will lower rates at least once more within the next year, so dollar demand will keep falling. The latest COT report shows "Non-commercial" closed 1,200 BUY contracts and 700 SELL contracts. So, the net position decreased by 500 contracts during the reporting week. The pound shot up in 2025, but the cause is clear—Donald Trump's policy. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could rally, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't really matter whether the net position in the pound rises or falls—the dollar's net position keeps shrinking, usually at a faster pace. GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is preparing for a new uptrend—and that's precisely what is happening. The fundamental and macroeconomic background remains weak for the dollar, so there's still no reason to expect medium-term growth. This week, a correction is theoretically possible, but technical signals are needed to confirm it, such as a break of the trendline. For September 18, the important levels are: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3525–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Senkou Span B (1.3460) and Kijun-sen (1.3581) lines may also generate signals. Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven once the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Note that Ichimoku lines may shift during the day and should be factored into signal evaluation. On Thursday, the BoE will announce its policy decision. Additionally, during the European session, traders will still be reacting to the Fed meeting and Powell's speech. Therefore, Thursday is likely to be highly volatile—unlike many recent sessions. In the U.S., the calendar contains nothing noteworthy. Trading RecommendationsWe expect that on Thursday, GBP/USD may continue or resume its rise, as nearly all factors point in this direction. However, fundamental events from Wednesday and Thursday may have a strong short-term impact on market sentiment, leading to complex, volatile movements with sharp reversals and price swings. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward bias throughout the day, right up until the Fed meeting. Trading showed extremely low volatility, as no one in the market wanted to take risks before the central bank's decision. The results of the meeting and all subsequent market moves will be analyzed tomorrow. For today, it's enough to note that the U.S. economy continues to weaken in the "Trump era." Recall that Donald Trump promised "explosive economic growth," but he never clarified when this explosive growth would arrive. Most likely—not anytime soon. In recent months, only activity in the services sector has remained afloat. Unemployment is rising, industrial output is falling, retail sales are weak, and inflation is climbing. Yesterday, it also became known that new housing starts are declining in the U.S., along with building permits. In short, nearly all indicators are pointing downward. Experts are once again speaking openly about a recession. The dollar continues to fall under Trump's policies and will likely remain out of favor with traders for a long time. On all timeframes, the trend is upward. Thus, even in the very short term, there's little reason to expect dollar strength. Of course, certain events may trigger temporary rebounds, but the overall macro and fundamental background remains firmly against the greenback. On the 5-minute TF, only one formal trading signal was formed yesterday. During the European session, the price briefly moved away from the 1.1846–1.1857 area, only to return to it within a couple of hours. Daily volatility was "below the floor." COT Report The latest COT report (as of September 9) shows the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time, with bears only barely taking the upper hand at the end of 2024, and quickly losing it. Since Trump took office as US President, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar will keep declining, but current events globally do point in that direction. We still see no fundamental reasons for euro strength, but plenty are supporting the dollar's drop. The global long-term downtrend remains, but what does the last 17 years' price action matter now? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may rally, but recent events show that won't happen anytime soon. Potential loss of Fed independence is another major pressure point for the US currency. The red and blue lines of the indicator keep pointing to a persistent "bullish" trend. In the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-commercial group rose by 2,400 contracts, while shorts fell by 3,700. Thus, the net position increased by 6,100 contracts, which isn't a significant change. EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to trend upward. Yesterday, the upward move gained momentum, and on the daily TF, it's clear that the 2025 uptrend has officially resumed. Traders are thus justified in expecting the euro to climb another 500–600 points. There is no limit to the dollar's decline, given Trump's current policies. For September 18, the key trading levels are: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1694) and Kijun-sen (1.1770). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction—this will protect against false signals. On Thursday, Christine Lagarde will deliver yet another speech in the eurozone, while the U.S. will publish the relatively minor jobless claims report. From Lagarde's third speech this week, expectations are the same as the first two—nothing new. The ECB meeting took place last week, and the market has already received all the necessary information. Trading RecommendationsOn Thursday, the pair may continue/resume its move north. Whatever the Fed decides, and however the market reacts, the situation for the U.S. dollar remains unchanged—and will not change anytime soon. Illustration Explanations:Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has stirred fresh talk that he may be stepping back into a bigger public role at Binance after a sudden change to his X profile and a string of developments around the exchange. Market moves and reports about talks with US law enforcement have fed the chatter, but legal limits remain a central part of the story. Profile Change Sparks Speculation Based on reports, CZ updated his X profile from “ex-@binance” back to “@binance,” a small public tweak that many traders and observers took as a hint he might reengage with the company he founded. The market reacted quickly. BNB, Binance’s native token, climbed and in some feeds was shown near $962.29 on September 17, 2025, as traders pushed prices higher amid the rumors. Binance In Talks With US Justice Department Reports say Binance is in discussions with the US Justice Department about whether to end the three-year compliance monitor that formed part of its 2023 settlement. If those talks succeed, the monitor could be removed earlier than planned. That 2023 deal included a roughly $4.3 billion settlement and conditions meant to strengthen Binance’s controls. Ending oversight sooner would not automatically mean CZ can resume a top executive job, but it would remove one major obstacle cited by industry watchers. Legal Limits Still In Place According to earlier reporting, CZ’s legal agreements tied to the settlement include limits on his ability to run or manage the exchange for a given period. Those restrictions are a hard constraint until they are changed by a court or by an enforcement agency. Because of that, a full operational comeback as chief executive looks unlikely unless formal legal steps are taken to alter the terms. That point has been made repeatedly by legal analysts in the crypto press. Public Moves And Treasury Plans Based on reports, CZ has been talking publicly about building the BNB ecosystem and has floated plans tied to a BNB Treasury effort. Those moves are fueling the sense he is preparing to take on a bigger public role, even if it is not the same as running day-to-day operations. Some market watchers say the profile change could be symbolic — meant to reassure traders and investors — rather than the start of a formal return. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum (ETH) has been consolidating between $4,200 and $4,700 after setting an all-time high last August. While many investors anticipate a strong fourth quarter, Citigroup has issued a tempered outlook, projecting ETH to close the year at $4,300. According to a Reuters report, Citi attributes Ethereum’s demand to the growing adoption of tokenization and stablecoins. However, the bank cautions that much of ETH’s recent price action may be fueled by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. The note highlighted, “Current prices are above activity estimates, potentially driven by buying pressure and excitement over use-cases.” ETF Flows and Diverging Analyst Predictions One of the main concerns weighing on Ethereum’s outlook is ETF activity. Citi expects ETH exchange-traded funds to attract weaker inflows compared to Bitcoin, a factor that could dampen bullish momentum. This comes after recent volatility in spot ETH funds, where inflows briefly returned following weeks of heavy outflows. Interestingly, not all institutions share Citi’s cautious stance. Standard Chartered raised its year-end Ethereum target to $7,500, citing the asset’s stronger position in digital treasuries and staking yields. BlackRock’s $363 million Ethereum purchase has further reinforced confidence in ETH’s long-term value. Ethereum (ETH)’s Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Ahead Citi laid out a range of possible outcomes for Ethereum. In a bullish case, ETH could climb to $6,400, driven by expanding institutional adoption and rising activity across decentralized applications. On the other hand, a bearish scenario projects a sharp drop to $2,200 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or equity markets face a downturn. Meanwhile, digital asset bank Sygnum has painted a more optimistic picture, pointing to Ethereum upgrades, shrinking exchange reserves, and growing institutional interest as catalysts for a potential supply squeeze. If demand continues to rise under these conditions, ETH could retest its all-time highs faster than expected. Ethereum is trading near $4,500, about 8% below its record peak. With institutional demand picking up but ETF flows posing uncertainty, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether ETH leans closer to Citi’s conservative $4,300 call or accelerates toward the bullish $6,400 target. Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

Despite a recent bout of market volatility, Ethereum’s bullish sentiment remains strong. With ETH holding strong above key support levels, its growing institutional demand and dominance in DeFi and staking, many believe the foundation for a new all-time high is already in place. What Could Derail Ethereum’s Path To A New ATH? In an X post, crypto investor CryptoELITES pointed out that Ethereum is still on track for a new all-time high. The ETH chart is exhibiting a similar pattern to previous cycles, bouncing off a bottom trendline. If the pattern holds, it implies that Ethereum has re-entered its main growth channel, the very setup that led to explosive rallies in prior cycles. As a result, the expert is confident and predicts that ETH could be headed for a new 2025 all-time high at the top. Emperor, a respected market analyst, has provided a detailed technical update on ETH price action. His analysis focuses on the key levels of support and resistance that are currently dictating the market’s direction, particularly following a period of consolidation. Emperor noted that after reaching its recent ATH, Ethereum’s price entered a phase of consolidation, trading within a specific range. A key resistance level had been holding the price down, but ETH eventually broke above it. However, a recent price move brought ETH back to this same resistance level for a bearish underside retest, which is a common technical event. According to the analysts, the retest confirmed the rejection, where the price did not successfully bounce off the level and has now returned to it. The focus is now on a key support and resistance level that previously acted as resistance during the consolidation. Meanwhile, the market is now looking to see if this level, with confirmation from trading volume, can turn into support. The Trigger For Full Expansion Ethereum has already done the heavy lifting this cycle by breaking above its key range highs around $4,100 and holding that level as support. Daan Crypto Trades, a crypto trader and investor, has revealed that the only remaining level is the 2021 all-time high, which ETH has briefly swept. However, it has not yet been able to go into full price discovery mode. Daan emphasizes the importance of the bulls holding the $4,000 to $4,100 level on higher timeframes. He noted that the wicks below are fine, as these can be a normal part of retesting a support level. However, closing below that point would be a bearish sign that could invalidate the current upward momentum. If ETH can clear $5,000 and sustain it, that’s the point where further expansion would begin. Until then, price action remains in the choppy phase.

Most Read: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPY USD/CAD is at a crossroads in many ways and the technicals are showing some interesting patterns. Given that both the Fed and BoC chose to cut rates today could the technicals lead the way in the weeks to come? There is a possibility that the technicals could dominate for now but moving forward I expect the pace of rate cuts to come into play as well as the performance of Oil prices, which will impact the Canadian Dollar. Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and following the trendline breakout at the end of July and rally to just above the 1.3900 mark, USD/CAD has been stuck in a range. We do have the formation of a head and shoulder pattern which has now formed but price is bouncing higher at the time of writing. Now a break of the neckline at 1.3723 and candle close below could trigger a potential 200-pip selloff and retest of the 1.3500 psychological level. A bounce from here though will face resistance at the 1.3900 handle before the psychological 1.4000 handle comes into focus. The 100-day MA is serving as support at present with the daily candle closing back above after a candle closed below the 100-day MA yesterday. Looking at the RSI and it is hovering below the 50 neutral level, a sign that bearish momentum is leading the way for now. So will we get a break or bounce? USD/CAD Daily Chart, September 18, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Fundamental Factors Ahead - Will Rate Differentials and Trade Agreements Play a Role? The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percent today, which was widely expected. They didn't provide much information about what they plan to do in the future. The Bank of Canada's rate is now 2.50%, which is still much lower than the US Federal Reserve's rate is, following the Fed rate cut today. It makes sense that the Bank of Canada is hesitant to promise more rate cuts right now. However, based on their overall view of the economy and inflation risks, it seems likely that this won't be the final rate cut in this cycle. However the Fed are still expected to cut rates more aggressively than the BoC over the next 12 months. According to the implied rates updated post FOMC and BoC meetings, markets are pricing in around 134.5 bps of rate cuts through September 2026, while for the BoC markets are only expecting 26.9 bps of cuts. Source LSEG This should work in favor of Canadian Dollar strength against the US Dollar in the months ahead. Of course other factors could come into play such as the performance of Oil prices, tariff developments between the US and Canada including the USMCA renegotiation. The agreement that is in place is protecting Canada from the worst of US tariffs. If the U.S. threatens to pull out of this deal, it would increase business uncertainty and could hurt the job market even more. I believe that all the necessary conditions are in place for another interest rate cut in December, and there is even a chance it could happen sooner in October for the BoC. For now, I see this as the final cut of the cycle, but can't completely rule out more easing at this point, especially given the ongoing risks related to trade. This is something which could cap Canadian Dollar gains against the US Dollar moving forward. All in all a lot to consider for USD/CAD traders and interesting times ahead. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 61% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term. Best of Luck. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.876 with a daily volume of $1.28 billion, but sellers remain in control after a sharp 7% decline over two days. On-chain data from Santiment shows the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric spiking to its highest level since July, signaling that many investors are cashing out profits. This wave of profit-taking, while not a sign of structural weakness, has capped ADA’s recovery attempts. Analysts emphasize that defending the $0.87–$0.85 support range will be crucial to maintaining ADA’s broader bullish outlook. Technical Outlook: Will ADA Break or Hold? From a technical perspective, Cardano (ADA) is struggling beneath the 50-EMA at $0.8819, with rejection near $0.923 forming a bearish engulfing candle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44, suggesting sellers still have room to push lower. If ADA loses support at $0.8528, the next downside levels are $0.8264 and $0.8033. However, reclaiming $0.8843 would be the first sign of strength, opening targets at $0.9018 and $0.9234. Traders are split: aggressive bears may short below $0.8528, while conservative bulls wait for a breakout above $0.90 to confirm momentum. Adoption News Offers Bullish Counterweight Despite short-term weakness, ADA’s fundamentals remain strong. Openbank, Europe’s largest digital bank under Santander, recently integrated Cardano for 2 million customers. This development has boosted the institutional adoption narrative, potentially providing a longer-term bullish catalyst. Caution dominates in the near term. On-chain data shows a $6.7 million net outflow from exchanges on September 17, reflecting investor hesitation. Analysts warn that unless inflows pick up, ADA may continue trading sideways or drift lower before staging its next rally. Cardano Bulls Eye $1, But Risks Remain For now, $0.87–$0.85 remains ADA’s battleground. A decisive break above $0.90 could reignite bullish momentum and put ADA back on track toward the psychological $1 level. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.85 risks exposing deeper support zones at $0.82 and $0.78. Whether Cardano’s next move is upward or downward may depend on how traders react to both technical signals and growing adoption headlines in the weeks ahead. Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview

Just yesterday, I wrote about Trump's demand for the European Union to impose tariffs on India and China as part of his strategy against Russia. The very framing of this issue raises countless questions, but that's how things stand in Washington. Trump, who had praised Russia for several months, clearly expected that his flattery would help stop the war in Ukraine. In practice, however, the situation turned out differently, and the White House is dissatisfied. He continues to insist that Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin must sign a peace agreement, but more than a month has passed since the historic Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, which was supposed to kickstart negotiations. Nothing has moved forward. Therefore, Trump decided to fire on all fronts at once. He does not want to impose sanctions on Russia, since he still calls Russia "a friend of America" and hopes Moscow's foreign policy will not align too closely with India and China. But that's precisely the direction it is taking. As a result, Trump opted to put pressure on Beijing and New Delhi, while also aiming to funnel dollars into the U.S. budget. Trump wants both Asian powers to stop purchasing Russian energy, cutting off the Kremlin's war financing. Yet both India and China have made it clear that their trade policy cannot depend on the whims of the White House or its vision of global order. They insist on deciding for themselves where and how much oil and gas to buy for their economies. If they don't buy from Russia, then where? Trump, of course, would prefer they buy from America. Meanwhile, Europe has little appetite for imposing tariffs on India and China, especially if that means halting energy imports from Russia. Any "oil sanctions" will almost certainly be blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, which openly and directly import Russian supplies. The European Union is considering not tariffs against India, but rather a free trade agreement. Brussels wants to expand cooperation with India, not confront it, as Trump suggests. Washington's position is, of course, convenient for itself—America is across the Atlantic, and from there it's easy to dictate terms about how others should live. But Brussels has not lost its sense of reason or independence, and it will act in its own interest, not in the interest of U.S. politicians. The EU clearly understands that in the event of a conflict, the blow would fall on Europe, not on the United States. Wave pattern on EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues forming an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news backdrop, tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the new U.S. administration. Targets for the current trend segment may extend to the 1.25 level. Since the backdrop remains unchanged, I continue holding long positions despite the first target at 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci) being reached. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci. Wave pattern on GBP/USD: The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. The pair is in a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, markets may face many shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave picture, but the current scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy is consistent. The targets for the bullish segment are located near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. At present, I expect the uptrend to continue within wave 3 of 5, with a target of 1.4017. Core principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.If you're unsure of market direction, it's better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound against the dollar continues testing the resistance level of 1.3650 (upper Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe), despite the general strengthening of the greenback. After Tuesday's sharp drop to 95.96, the U.S. dollar index on Wednesday is attempting to recover at least partially. DXY has returned to the 96 range, and major dollar pairs adjusted accordingly, reflecting the greenback's rebound. However, GBP/USD stands apart: despite the dollar's recovery, the pound keeps pressing the 1.3650 barrier. The UK inflation report, published on Wednesday, favored GBP/USD buyers, as it confirmed persistently high inflation levels, giving the Bank of England grounds to keep interest rates unchanged. With the central bank's meeting scheduled for Thursday (September 18), the report carries significant weight for GBP/USD traders. According to the data, headline CPI grew by 3.8% year-over-year in August, the same pace as in July, though some analysts expected an uptick to 3.9%. Even so, the current inflation level is unacceptably high for the central bank. The July–August pace marks the fastest increase since January 2024. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed as expected, to 3.6% from 3.8%. Despite the decline, the figure remains far from the BoE's 2% target. The Retail Price Index (RPI), used by employers in wage negotiations, eased slightly to 4.6% y/y from 4.8% in July, but remains uncomfortably high. Service-sector inflation, another important component, fell to 4.7% y/y in August from 5.0% previously. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose sharply by 5.1% y/y, while prices for restaurants, hotels, and fuel also increased. Overall, inflation remains stubbornly high and well above the BoE's target. There are no clear signs of a significant decline in core inflation. One major factor preventing a faster slowdown is wage growth. The data showed average earnings, including bonuses, accelerated to 4.7% from 4.6%, after three consecutive months of declines. Average earnings excluding bonuses fell to 4.8% from 5.0%. Wage growth was concentrated in services (notably hospitality, catering, education, and healthcare) and the public sector. Wage growth in the 4.5–5.0% range is seen as incompatible with 2% inflation, especially if productivity remains weak. This is why the market largely ignored the rise in unemployment to 4.7% in July and the 17,000 increase in jobless claims, focusing instead on the wage component. Thus, the fundamental backdrop supports further GBP/USD upside. The inflation data allows the BoE to remain on hold, providing additional support for the pound—particularly against the dollar, which faces expected Fed rate cuts in September and beyond. Divergence between BoE and Fed policy paths will continue to support GBP/USD, unless the Fed takes an overly cautious stance this week. If the Fed cuts rates and signals more easing ahead, the pair may advance into the 1.37 area. Technical outlook: Across H1, H4, D1, W1, and MN timeframes, GBP/USD is either near the upper Bollinger Bands line or between its middle and upper bands, while also remaining above all Ichimoku lines. On the H4, daily, and weekly charts, Ichimoku has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The main (and for now only) upside target lies at 1.3710—the upper Bollinger Bands line on D1. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

But aren't they guilty themselves? It turns out Scott Bessent also listed two of his houses as his primary residence. Donald Trump called such actions by Lisa Cook mortgage fraud and a reason to dismiss her from her position as FOMC governor. Should the Treasury Secretary be fired as well? The U.S. president often presents wishful thinking as fact. This also applies to his calls for the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more. According to him, the central bank should listen to someone as smart as he is. A massive sell-off of the U.S. dollar allowed EUR/USD to soar to 4-year highs. The euro has never risen so fast during the first nine months of a year as it has in 2025. The Fed remains fixated on the labor market. It's no surprise that investors are ignoring strong data on other important indicators – inflation and retail sales. Speculators continue to dump the U.S. dollar on expectations of a renewed cycle of monetary expansion. Dynamics of speculative positions in the U.S. dollar Euro bulls are not deterred by either the escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine, with Russian drones appearing on Polish territory, or the political crisis in France. These events are viewed as secondary. The main stage is set in Washington. Meanwhile, the eurozone's resilience to tariffs, against the backdrop of a cooling U.S. economy, provides additional tailwinds for EUR/USD bulls. In the short term, the main currency pair may even extend its rally if updated federal funds rate projections show two cuts in 2025. The derivatives market is pricing in three, while Bloomberg experts expect two. The Fed will decide. The central bank's verdict will determine the short-term direction of EUR/USD. Over the longer horizon, however, the pair's fate seems predetermined. Market expectations for the Fed's rate In reality, the current situation painfully resembles the 1970s. President Richard Nixon shared the same desire to boost the U.S. economy through rate cuts. The same pressure on Fed Chair Arthur Burns. Eventually, he gave in. Monetary policy was loosened, and inflation returned. Prices began to surge uncontrollably, and the new central bank head, Paul Volcker, was forced into aggressive monetary tightening. The result is well known: a double-dip recession. If Trump calls himself a smart man, he should know history and understand the pressure on the Fed that leads to it. In today's context, it is seen as a threat to central bank independence. And there's no worse scenario for the U.S. dollar. Technically, on the daily EUR/USD chart, the uptrend has resumed, followed by a slight pullback of the bulls. They still hold the initiative. Therefore, a rebound from support at 1.182 or a return above the current bar's high at 1.187 should be used for buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold stepped back ahead of the Fed's verdict. Few doubt that the central bank will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. However, the number of dissenters, signals about future monetary policy, and the dot plot forecast will be critical for XAU/USD. The precious metal had long been rising and reached record highs, but investors chose to play it safe before this key event. The best environment for gold is stagflation. It has never fallen in the 21st century during periods when U.S. inflation was rising while the Fed was cutting rates. In this regard, the acceleration of consumer prices in August to 2.9% y/y, coupled with expectations of a renewed monetary expansion cycle, is an important source of support for XAU/USD—though not the only one. China announced an easing of controls on gold imports. In theory, this should boost demand for U.S. dollars, which are used to purchase bullion. Beijing is concerned about the yuan's strength, which is becoming another noose around exporters' necks—alongside high U.S. tariffs. For the precious metal, this is good news. Rising imports from China provide another argument in favor of an XAU/USD rally. Dynamics of Chinese gold imports The rally in 2025 has been remarkable. Gold has risen by more than 40%, set three dozen nominal records, and even one inflation-adjusted record that had stood since 1980. Goldman Sachs does not rule out a surge to $5,000 per ounce if even 1% of the U.S. Treasury bond market capital flows into gold. Deutsche Bank also raised its 2026 average price forecast from 3700 to 4000 dollars, citing dollar weakness, strong central bank demand for bullion, and the Fed's aggressive monetary expansion cycle. The main risks to this scenario include a prolonged pause in rate cuts in 2026, gold's seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter based on 10- and 20-year patterns, and strong U.S. stock market performance. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, so rising global risk appetite should, in theory, work against it. In practice, however, the S&P 500 and XAU/USD can rise comfortably together. Adding to this are ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, threats to Fed independence, and global dedollarization and reserve diversification. Together, these paint a bright outlook for the precious metal. Technically, on the daily chart, gold has so far failed to consolidate above the key pivot level of 3680 dollars per ounce. This may be the first sign of weakness among the bulls. Only a decline below fair value at 3645 and the previous local high bar's low at 3625 would confirm selling potential. That would also trigger an Anti-Turtles pattern. As long as the precious metal trades above these levels, the focus should remain on buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade. Source: LSEG Source: LSEG The value of the US dollar against the Japanese yen will mainly be affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's meeting will also have an impact, but it will likely be less significant. However, if Governor Ueda says something unexpected, it could cause a major rise in the value of the yen, breaking its current trading range of 147 to 149. The Anticipated Bank of Japan Policy Decision: Maintaining the Status Quo The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep its interest rate at 0.5% this week, a rate it has held since January. This cautious, "wait-and-see" approach is due to a few key reasons. First, there is political uncertainty in Japan, and the central bank wants to avoid making any sudden policy changes that could cause more economic instability. Second, the BOJ is still evaluating the full impact of a new U.S.-Japan trade deal and U.S. tariffs, which are hurting Japanese exports. Interestingly, the BOJ is prioritizing economic stability over controlling inflation, even though inflation is running high and outpacing wage growth. This difference between the central bank's policy and the domestic inflation reality could potentially lead to market problems in the future. Forward-Looking Monetary Policy: The Outlook Beyond September The market expects the Bank of Japan to keep its interest rate unchanged in September but believes they will start raising rates soon. Many traders think there's a strong chance of a rate hike before the end of 2025 and more hikes by the middle of next year. Source LSEG Looking at the implied rates based on LSEG data, we can see markets are pricing in around 50 bps of cuts through December 2026. Now this may not seem like a lot, but it is the BoJ we are talking about. Since no new forecasts will be released at the meeting, the market's reaction will depend entirely on what Governor Kazuo Ueda says at his press conference. The Bank of Japan is known for its vague communication. If Governor Ueda continues to be vague, the market will likely have a small reaction. However, if he sounds surprisingly direct about future rate hikes, it would confirm the market's aggressive expectations. Because of this, his words could cause a large and sudden shift in the market. The Dual-Central Bank Catalyst: Impact on USD/JPY The value of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is primarily driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies. When investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates, the dollar typically falls against the yen. This is especially relevant this week, as a Fed rate cut has been delivered as expected. The market generally expects the US to cut rates while Japan eventually raises them, a situation that would likely cause the dollar to weaken against the yen. While the Bank of Japan's decision is also important, its effect will be largely shaped by the Fed's actions. The Fed's influence on the currency pair is much stronger. Given that market expectations are for 50 bps of rate cuts from the Fed before the year-end on top of the 25 bps delivered this week, the Yen could be poised for gains moving forward over the medium term. Source: Google Gemini Technical Analysis USD/JPY USD/JPY from a technical standpoint has been giving signs of a bullish rally, but the potential effects of rate differentials could come into play. On a weekly timeframe, the long-term descending trendline had been broken a while ago and since then USD/JPY has been trapped in a range between 145.00 and 150.00 handle with a brief foray higher being met by swift selling pressure. There is also an ascending trendline from the April lows just below the 140.00 handle. The daily candle has closed as a hammer candlestick bouncing of the trendline and the 100-day MA at 146.21. Immediate resistance is provided by the 50-day MA which rests at 147.67 before the 200-day MA at 148.62 comes into focus. A break of the ascending trendline could lead to a push toward the 145.00 handle before the swing low at 143.33 comes into focus. USD/JPY Daily Chart, September 17, 2025 Source: TradingView Trade Safe. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.